The Ag View Pitch
By Ag View Pitch
The Ag View PitchJul 29, 2020
#590 - "Spring Rallies and WASDE Review" - Weekly Market Outlook: May 13-17th
Jim McCormick with agmarket.net joined Andy Hruby to discuss Friday's WASDE report and watch outs around spring rallies with things producers need to be keeping an eye on as planting progress continues.
#589 - “Late” Spring Planting: Best Agronomic Practices.
Troy Deutmeyer visits with Chris about the recent planting delays and some of the key agronomic principles in a wet and delayed environments.
The discussion includes the following topics:
- Compaction penalties versus calendar date.
- When is it time to go to earlier maturity hybrids?
- Seeding populations on late planting dates.
- Seed treatment benefits.
- Insecticide rates with corn on corn and later planting dates.
- Potential nitrogen loss: Leaching and volatilization.
- Potential future disease pressures to watch for.
- Crop protection and weed control: pre-emerge and post emerge applications.
- Replant decisions.
- Calendar dates and population considerations.
#588 - “New Farm Bill Debate: House vs Senate Proposals.”
Paul Neiffer visits with Chris on the differences between the House and Senate’s new farm bill proposals.
- Discussion on the differences between the Senate and House Farm Bills, focusing on ARC and PLC programs, with the House version generally offering more favorable terms for farmers.
- Exploration of payment limitations in the Farm Bill, discussing potential impacts on farmers based on income and ownership structures, with a critical view on the Senate’s proposals.
- Discussion on how crop insurance may be impacted by the new farm bill.
- Debate over the national debt and its sustainability, with a focus on the implications of continuous borrowing and the need for fiscal responsibility.
- Discussion on agricultural practices and policies, including the need for farmers to adapt to new regulations and practices to stay competitive and sustainable
#587 - “Will Slow Planting Pace Produce Price Improvement?”- Weekly Market Outlook: May 6-10th
Matt and Joe discuss everything from planting progress to dollar strength and how these things could impact the market next week.
#586 - Climate Smart Agriculture: “A Practical Conversation Around 45Z & SAF.”
Jarod Creed and Pete Meyer visit Chris in this episode of The Ag View Pitch. They discuss the April 30th press release from the US Department of Treasury regarding SAF (sustainable aviation fuel.) They proceed in detail to discuss what 45Z might look like along with some of the challenges and opportunities.
- Challenges and complexities in implementing and adapting to agricultural policies and practices aimed at sustainability and environmental responsibility.
- Discussion focuses on agricultural practices like no-till and cover crops, emphasizing the need for nitrogen management and the use of stabilizers to prevent environmental impact.
#585 - "Wheat and Weather Attention" - Weekly Market Outlook: April 29th - May 3rd.
Wheat and weather seem to be the center of conversation this past week, will the Midwest receive the forecasted amounts of rain over the weekend and into next week, and will the wheat markets rally spill over into the corn and bean markets this upcoming week???
#584 - Putting FAITH in your Peer Group
Shay talks with Ken Stewart on Peer Groups as a business leader, and specifically faith-based peer groups.
They discuss the function, overview, and key aspects and benefits a peer group provides participants.
If you have any questions, please contact Shay at (319)-464-5708 or if you’re interested in joining a Convene group call Ken at 309-256-5068
#583 - "Lender Communication"
Joe Paulson and Jeremy Doetch have a conversation around what good communication with your lender should look like and what types of things need to be communicated from both sides of the table.
#582 - “Waiting For a Spring Rally?” - Weekly Market Outlook: April 22-26th
Jeff Fichtelman joins Chris in this week's Market Outlook.
- Planting Conditions
Discussion on the current planting conditions in Ohio and the impact of weather patterns on planting progress. Concerns about rain and soil conditions affecting the planting schedule were highlighted. - Market Concerns
The conversation touched on the lack of concerns regarding the agricultural market’s response to current planting conditions and the potential impact on prices. - Basis and Pricing Strategy
An in-depth analysis of the basis and pricing strategies for crops, emphasizing the importance of setting targets for selling crops and managing the basis effectively. - Impact of Global Events
Discussion on how global events, specifically tensions between Israel and Iran, could impact the agricultural markets and commodity prices. - 2024 Crop Planning
Strategies for the 2024 crop, including sales and planting decisions, were discussed, with an emphasis on the low percentage of crops currently sold for 2024. - Yield Enhancement Techniques
Exploration of techniques and advancements in agriculture aimed at enhancing crop yields, particularly in the face of challenging weather conditions.
- 19 Minutes Subscription
Promotion of the ‘19 Minutes’ subscription service, which offers detailed episodes on various agricultural topics, including labor, cost production analysis, and the economics of biologicals. The service aims to provide deeper insights for business-minded individuals in the agricultural sector.
- Sign-Up For 19 Minutes
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#581 - “Planted Acres: Still The Big Question?” - Weekly Market Outlook: April 15-19th
#580 - “Spring Planting Agronomy Update!”
Troy Deutmeyer area Agronomist with Pioneer visits with Chris in this spring agronomy update.
They start the conversation discussing the keys to effective tillage. One of the keys areas Troy talks about is the importance of running the tillage tool in the same direction as the planter. He goes on to talk about several other factors around planting into strip till.
They go onto discuss the importance of planter settings. Managing the row, cleaners, seeding depth, spacing, variable rate, seeding, and soil conditions.
They continue discussing crop protection and managing your sprayer passes.
They wrap up the conversation discussing importance of managing your ROI as you make decisions on certain products for your crop.
#579 - “Is There a Spring Rally Ahead?” - Weekly Market Outlook: April 8-12th
Duane Lowry is visiting Chris in this week's Market Outlook.
Chris quizzes Duane on some of the key fundamentals to watch, as we head into spring planting season.
Duane acknowledges the burdensome supply of grain, which is one of the key factors pressuring the market. However, he explains several opportunities that could give us a short window of pricing opportunity.
The upside price opportunities are likely limited. However, Duane sees the importance of having targets in play and being willing to get some level of new crop priced during these opportunities, especially during the planting season.
They go on to discuss energy prices, summer weather, possible acreage shifts, geopolitical possibilities, and Fund positioning as we continue through the year.
#578 - Introducing: Andy Hruby and Joe Paulson “The Newest Ag View Solution’s Team Members!”
Shay and Chris introduce Andy Hruby and Joe Paulson.
Andy and Joe now take on the role as the newest team members with Ag View Solutions.
Both Andy and Joe introduce themselves. They both explain their farming operations and how they got started working with Ag View Solutions.
Andy and Joe will play an intricate role with the team. They will be working with individual farm operations on collaboration, transition, succession planning, profit manager, and peer group facilitation.
Finally, in the discussion, Shay announces that he will away on a military deployment. Shay is part of the Illinois National Guard and will be away for an indefinite period of time. However, once Shay is back, he will pick up his role where he left off.
In the meantime:
Chris, Andy, and Joe will back Shay up while he is away.
We are so thankful for Shay and his military service, and all who bravely and selflessly serve our country!
Please reach out if any of you have questions.
#577 - “Market Madness” - Weekly Market Outlook: April 1-5th
Joe visits with Chris in this week’s weekly market Outlook.
Joe breaks down the numbers from the crop production and supply & demand reports.
Chris quizzes Joe on what the potential acre mix could mean to the markets moving forward in the next couple of months.
Demand continues to be extremely dismal with no changes expected.
Weather is still a potential threat within key production areas being very dry; however, markets are unlikely to move without BIG production issues.
If production issues do arise, they will likely be short-lived, in terms of pricing opportunities. Joe points out that producers will need to be aggressive to take advantage of profit margins, if and when they come.
Chris and Joe wrap up the conversation, talking about outside markets, including interest rates, energy prices, and currencies.
#576 - “30,000 Foot View” - Weekly Market Outlook: March 25-29th
Jarod Creed With, JC Marketing visits with Chris in this week’s market Outlook.
They start the conversation talking about how the cost of production in 2024 has not reduced much from the costs in 2023.
Producers are struggling with the fact that crop budgets are in the red and it will take increased yields to bring the cost of production down this year to get in line with current market prices.
Their conversation continues at length discussing numerous options to consider in order to capture some success out amongst all the challenges that we face as we head into spring planting.
Setting a margin target, being disciplined, and taking on a modest opportunity may be a huge win for 2024.
Nobody knows where price levels could go on spring rally; however, the risk on the other side of the equation is significant!
#575 - "Keep Eyes Open for Opportunities" - Weekly Market Outlook: Mar 18-22.
#574 - "Dad‘s Wisdom: With Mike Oberbroeckling"
Mike Oberbroeckling from Garnavillo Iowa visits with Chris in this episode of Dads Wisdom.
Mike talks about the history of his farming career and some of the lessons he learned from his dad along the way.
Mike goes on to talk about the extreme importance of his wife and family and the many of the lessons learned over his career of farming.
Mike emphasizes the importance of learning from your mistakes, staying at challenging projects, and putting the time in necessary to create a successful business.
When asked about a biggest mistake; his answer rhymed with what many producers say. “They wish they would’ve bought more farmland during the course of their career.”
Mike has had an extremely successful operation and his two boys are continuing to grow the operation today with a phenomenal team of employees.
There are many of tidbits of wisdom that you’ll be able to capture in this episode! ENJOY!
#573 - The Most Important Piece of Equipment on Your Farm! Part Two. “Health Equals Wealth”
Dr. Kurt House with Medical Associates of Independence Iowa, visits with Chris about the most important piece of equipment on your farm.
We don’t think twice about changing the oil on our tractor timely or greasing machines daily to keep all of our equipment in top-notch shape.
How are you doing with your body? It’s the one piece of equipment that has the most value on your entire farm.
Unfortunately, many people neglect the most important piece of equipment with the excuse of “not enough time”, or “simply not a priority.”
This is a conversation around some tactics that can help you to improve yourself from a health perspective.
Not taking care of yourself now can be an expensive endeavor later on in life. It’s not any different than not caring for your equipment.
Dr. House and Chris go on to discuss some key things that can change your life by creating a healthy environment for yourself and ensure that you’re around to enjoy farming as long as you want, before you pass it along to the next generation.
The key topics discussed include exercise, sleep, nutrition, water intake, mental health, and safety.
Investing time in your health, both physically, and mentally will impact the bottom line of your business financially faster than investing in any other piece of equipment on the farm.
#572 - "Financial Happiness & Wealth Creation Revisited"
Mike Finley visits with Chris on the idea of investing intelligently and creating wealth that will provide a successful retirement plan for you and your entire family!
This conversation is an update from a prior Ag View Pitch podcast created almost 2 years ago that has helped many producers to build wealth outside of their farming operations.
As you invest into your future are you doing it in a way that is helping you and your family? Or instead, are you helping your personal financial planner / broker through hidden fees and loads?
Check out this podcast and learn how to take care of yourself instead of the financial industry.
#571 - “The State Of The Ag Economy.”
Chris and Jeremy discussed in detail the position many lenders are in currently, as they navigate interest rate inversion, inflation, and customers that are facing a challenging year ahead, due to significantly reduced commodity prices.
They go on in the second half of the conversation to talk about headwinds that farmers are facing. They discussed some of the keys to ensure that your individual credit quality meets the expectations of lenders.
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#570 - "March WASDE Report" - Weekly Market Outlook: March 11-15th.
Today Joe has a chat with Greg Mcbride. Joe and Greg discuss the March WASDE report and the importance of having a plan to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves.
#569 - "Success depends upon proper preparation. Spring is coming!"
Today Joe Paulson sits down with Brent Judisch with P&K Midwest about spring preparations.
In this episode Brent talks about best practices in getting planters, sprayers, tractors, and tillage pieces ready to go.
#568 - “After 11 Weeks of Down Markets, we Finally Did Not Go Down” - Weekly Market Outlook: Mar 4-8.
In this episode of the Weekly Market Outlook, we have a discussion with Jarod Creed about not necessarily bullish news but lack of additional bearish news. If this is a short-term bottom and we get a rally, we need to be ready to pull the trigger on sales.
#567 - Margin Protection Update and Walk-thru
Shay talks with Jarod Creed on the ways Margin Protection is influencing current producer decisions, considerations for the year ahead, and some helpful examples to better understand it's use as a hedge in your operation.
#566 - “Is a Short-Term Bottom Near?” - Weekly Market Outlook: Feb 26th - Mar 1st.
In today’s Weekly Market Outlook, we have a conversation with Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net.
With March unpriced basis contracts coming due plus option expiration does this portend a short-term bottom with a bounce in corn prices.
If so, farmers need to be quick to take advantage of this. We also discuss some options for unsold 2023 corn.
#565 - What is FBN?
Shay talks with a co-founder, Charles, and also the Director of Sales, TJ, on what the Farmers Business Network is, it's history, and why you should consider how their business may fit into your operational needs.
#564 - “How Low Do We Go?” - Weekly Market Outlook: Feb.19–23
Jeff Fichtelman visits with Chris in this week’s Market outlook episode.
Jeff talks about how the Funds continue to add to their short positions, pressuring price levels.
The funds continue to follow the trend lower and seemingly increase the price pressure as they add to their short positions.
Fortunately, some areas are starting to have improving basis levels, however; if prices do start to rebound, these basis levels will evaporate rapidly.
Jeff goes on to explain the phenomenon called “price decision fatigue.”
He points out that many producers mentally have decided not to make sales until the market rebounds. Unfortunately, the price has done nothing but go down systematically since late October. This downward trend has created the situation that mini producers are paralyzed and not willing to make sales at this point.
Jeff challenges producers to make a sale at some point on old crap bushels in order to at least price some bushels with the hopes of that being the “worst sale” of the remaining bushels. Conversely, if the price does go lower at least you’ve got some sales on the books.
With the funds being short and producers having a huge volume of old crop corn on hand, the likelihood of much of a price increase is limited.
#563 - “Navigating Bear Markets” - Weekly Market Outlook: Feb. 12-16th.
Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net visits with Chris in this weeks episode.
Matt and Chris discuss the market pressures that continue to weigh on prices.
As we are working through the February crop insurance price discovery for corn and soybeans; Matt and Chris discuss some of the possibilities and potential considerations as we move toward the March decision timeframe.
They go onto to discuss outside fundamentals, such as the funds taking on additional short positions potentially, weather in South America, basis levels, and demand pressures.
They wrap up the conversation discussing some practical considerations for 2024 along with some considerations for offloading, the balance of the 2023 crop as opportunities “hopefully” present themselves.
#562 - Harvest Profit with Nick Horob
Shay and Nick discuss Harvest Profit, things affecting the industry of agriculture, and some practices we use for thinking about business decision-making, knowing ourselves, and more. Enjoy and please share!
#561 - “Risk Management Season!” - Weekly Market Outlook: Feb. 5-9th
Jarod Creed with JC Marketing, visits with Chris in this week’s episode.
At the beginning of the February price discovery for crop insurance; corn comes in around $4.77 while soybeans come in around $11.70.
Jarod and Chris discussed the possibility of market movers during the month of February, however, unless the Funds begin to lighten up on short positioning, all other prospects for moving the markets higher look bleak currently.
Additionally, with the massive amount of old crop corn still in farmers hands, it makes any price increase extremely difficult.
The balance of the conversation revolves around strategies to consider with your crop insurance plans.
Jarod goes on to explain numerous programs which are available through different insurance companies in order to minimize risk as think through the best decisions to protect your farms bottom line.
#560 - "Don’t be Old McDonald. AI-AI-O. No Need to Fear AI. It’s Here!"
Ryan Moe guest hosts this episode with Scott Klososky (Founder of Future Point of View) which was recorded at the Ag View Executive Business Conference.
Scott explains the current and future uses of AI and the impact it could have on our businesses. We are in the midst of rapid changes in technology.
Scott explains some of the opportunities and challenges with the technology. Either way it’s coming fast!
#559 - "PGA championships. World Series Rings. And the Navy SEAL coached them to it."
Ryan Moe guest hosts this conversation with Jason Kuhn former Division 1 Athlete, and Navy SEAL Sniper.
Jason gives brief story of his process to becoming a Navy SEAL and how some of the lessons learned can be applied in our ag businesses.
Jason gave an extremely motivational and impacting presentation at the Ag View Executive Business Conference, this discussion is a short summary of some of what he talked about at the conference.
#558 - Equity Capital and How to Leverage it!
Ben Gordon with Fractal Agriculture discusses the ideas behind equity capital in agriculture, why it could be important in the years ahead, and information on the upcoming webinar he will be hosting with Shay and 2 other industry figures. You can sign up for the February 22nd webinar here: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/4017056278050/WN_CkwKhsXRQC6f0oeike4qSA#/registration
#557 - “Marketing Discussion From The Ag View Executive Business Conference in Phoenix” Weekly Market Outlook: Jan. 29- Feb. 2nd
Joe Vaclavik guest host this week’s Market Outlook episode from the Ag View Executive Business Conference in Phoenix Arizona.
Joe talks with Jarod Creed and Peter Meyer. They take a look ahead and discuss some of the opportunities and challenges over the next few weeks as we try to dig out of continued low price action.
#556 - “The Magic Corn Price” - Weekly Market Outlook: Jan. 22-26th
Chris starts with the key question: What is the “magic corn price” that farmers would be willing to let go of the 2023 crop?
Farmers seem to have a minimum target of $5 per bushel on farm price for the balance of inventory. However, is that realistic and how do we navigate basis to get to that net value?
Clark provides some perspective on what some of the trigger points might be for producers to begin to move the balance of grain inventory. Several of those factors include, cash flow needs, the Calendar, basis opportunities, and the cost of storage versus the carry in the market.
They continue the conversation with the following topics of discussion.
Interest rates
Energy prices
Commitment of trader's report
Geopolitical situations
Demand
They wrap up the conversation, discussing some potential targets and the importance of paying attention for opportunities on the 2024 crop.
#555 - Transition Planning; Where to Start
Shay talks with Mike Downey of Next gen Ag Advocates on transition planning, how to get started, and what to consider in 2024 and beyond. They also touch on investing off the farm with farmer groups.
#554 - "Reaction to Friday's USDA reports." - Weekly Market Outlook: Jan 15-19th.
We also discuss the outlook for corn versus beans for 2024 and the trend appears to be moving to corn.
#553 - "Do Business Better!"
Doing business better is the theme of this entire conversation.
Chris pulls out 4 key elements of Damian‘s book titled “Do Business Better” and questions Damian on the applications of these topics in order to help farmers do business better as we head into 2024.
Chris dives into a discussion with Damian on the following.
1. Get Better
2. Four Traits to Success.
a. Risk tolerance.
b. Drive.
c. Resilience.
d. Vision.
3. Treat Time Like Money.
4. Know Money or (You’ll Have No Money.)
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#552 - “A New Paradigm” - Weekly Market Outlook: Jan. 8-12th
Jeff Fichtelman with interactiveag.com visits with Chris in this week's episode.
Jeff provides some excellent perspective on the importance of recalibrating your mindset with where the corn and soybean markets have been versus where they are now.
He walks through some of the key principles needed to take advantage of small opportunities as they arise in this new marketing environment.
Chris asks for some perspective on dealing with the glut of old-crop corn that many producers are still sitting on.
Jeff explains the importance of managing the carry in the market in concert with basis opportunities, and the perspective or potential value of using call options on a percentage of old crop sales to leave some level of upside open.
No recommendations here just some excellent perspective.
The conversation continues with a brief discussion around additional market, influences: The Funds and demand prospects. IE China.
They wrap up the conversation by discussing opportunities for 2024, including some discussion around the corn and soybean acre mix.
#551 - “Looking Ahead to 2024” - Weekly Market Outlook: Jan. 2-5th.
Matt Bennett, with AgMarket.Net visits with Chris on this week's market outlook.
The conversation begins with a discussion around the possibility of pricing opportunities in the first half of January.
They go on to talk about some of the opportunities and challenges that could come out of the upcoming January 12 USDA report.
The balance of the conversation consists of discussions around the funds, money flow, US dollar weakness, and the importance of managing your numbers on your own operation to take advantage of profit opportunities when they present themselves.
They wrap up the conversation talking about the 2024 acre mix possibilities between corn and soybeans.
#550 - "10 Lessons From 2023."
Chris and Shay join each other in conversation; each with their top 5 lessons learned in the past year.
Neither Shay nor Chris knows each other’s lessons learned before the recording which makes this an interesting conversation as they share their lessons from the past year.
Get a pen and paper out and jot down the 10 lessons as Shay and Chris share their list with each other and compare those with the lessons you have learned in your operation over the past year.
We encourage you to share your lessons with us and provide any feedback, so that we can all benefit from lessons learned in 2023.
#549 - “Wrapping Up 2023” - Weekly Market Outlook: Dec. 26-29th.
Chip Flory with AgriTalk visits with Chris in this week’s episode.
Chris begins with a question for Chip on how to navigate all of the noise and opinions around Marketing. Chip provides some excellent perspective on navigating your information sources.
Chris continues the conversation around the challenge of the 2023 unsold bushel. Chip provides perspective around the importance of “controlling your inventory.” Setting a price and opening the upside potential as one key consideration in the discussion.
Chris paints a scenario in the event we see a price rally for the 2024 crop in January. They discuss possibilities and the importance of capturing profitability and limiting risk.
They also discuss a number of other areas, including export demand, current and future possibilities from sustainable airplane fuel, inflation outlook, and interest rates.
They wrap up the conversation talking about the acre mix possibilities as we head into 2024.
#548 - “Where Did the Working Capital Go?” Weekly Market Outlook: Dec. 18-23rd
Jarod Creed with JC Marketing visits with Chris in this week’s episode.
This discussion is a three-part conversation that starts with opportunities to consider for the 2024 marketing year.
- Jarod explains several strategies to minimize risk in the 2024 season.
- Jarod and Chris, discuss the challenges and opportunities as growers navigate pricing the remaining production from the 2023 season.
- Jarod and Chris discuss some interesting observations as producers begin conversations with lenders on loan renewals. Some startling reductions in working capital are beginning to show up on some balance sheets for a number of reasons. They go on to discuss some of the factors influencing the working capital reduction.
#547 - “Demand Improvement” - Weekly Market Outlook: Dec. 11-15th
Garret Brown with Codak Risk Advisory, codakgroup.com, visits with Chris in this week's Market Outlook.
Garret begins the conversation with a breakdown of some of the key components from last week's WASDE report.
Garret goes onto to explain the strength in the wheat market and the importance of the recent Chinese demand.
The conversation continues with discussion around Fund positioning along with various other fundamentals, impacting the markets.
Some outside macro conditions to pay attention to include energy prices, currencies, export demand, and potentially South American weather developments.
They go on to discuss considerations around opportunities and challenges with pricing the remainder of 2023 crop.
They wrap up the conversation discussing margin opportunities for the 2024 crop production year.
#546 - Managing Your Farm Data for Profit
Lewis Stearns with progressive Crop Solutions doesn't need his work to be sexy- he needs it to to work. And his work is putting your data to work for you. We are all guilty of not managing our farm data like we should, and Lewis and his team work with farms to get them where they need to eb, and provide a stand-alone report card on how your business and farm is doing, without telling you how to farm. Today Shay and Lewis discuss some key objectives for the year ahead, and address common questions and challenges faced in farm data.
2024 mistakes to avoid:
1. Mislabeling Products- clean data in, clean data out
2. Calibrations- recalibrate con every 5% moisture and between hybrids
3. Multiple Machine calibrations and data management post or mid-harvest
4. Improper Storage of historical information
We need to add a new "basic" level of farm management to the playbook- fertility, pH, drainage, timeliness, and now data management.
You can reach Lewis at lewis.stearns@progressivecrops.com or check out the website at progressivecrops.com
#545 - “December Market Rally?” Weekly Market Outlook Dec. 4-8th
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Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net visits with Chris in this week's episode.
The conversation revolves around the following theme. There are significant similarities this year to what we saw in 2013. This doesn’t necessarily mean we will see the exact same scenarios play out however, there are significant conditions that rhyme with 2013 and create a risky scenario that producers will need to navigate in the coming weeks and months in order to mitigate risk and capture subtle Profit opportunities.
The conversation weaves through several topics to pay attention to including commercial positions, managing basis, opportunities, South American weather, fund positioning, and possible export demand.
They go on discussing the idea that managing risk going into 2024 will be paramount as you look at your marketing plan and consider the price levels that work on your individual farm. They wrap up the conversation talking about several possibilities that could give us strength in the grain Markets however, setting your price targets and limiting downside risk is advisable with the potential headwinds of 2024.
#544 - “South American Weather Market.” Weekly Market Outlook. Nov. 27- Dec.1st
Pete Meyer visits with Chris in this week's episode.
They start the conversation discussing recent volatility in the Soybean market.
What would it take to break out of the current price range and how much impact is South American weather having?
Peter does make the comment to be careful in “weather markets” and take advantage of rallies when opportunities present themselves.
They go on to discuss some practical decision considerations in order to take advantage of carry in the market, while at the same time, factoring in interest rates, storage cost, and cash flow needs.
They wrap up the conversation discussing the general economy, the value of the dollar, energy prices, geopolitical issues, inflation, interest rates, and the stock market.
#543 - "Thanksgiving Week Markets" Weekly Market Outlook: Nov. 20-24th
Ryan Moe with Stone X visits with Chris in this week’s market outlook.
Producers in the east, continue harvesting high yields, high moistures, and running out of space.
Producers in the west, have shut the Bin doors and are struggling with what to do with unsold bushels.
Ryan expects the Funds to have very limited and light trade in the upcoming week, and possibly as we head toward the end of the year as many traders are exiting commodity positions for the time being.
Ryan goes on to explain the fact that end-users have plenty of grain, but do not have the ownership. Capturing strong basis levels as we move forward in time now may become more of a challenge, especially in the east.
Some pricing opportunities could possibly arise if we see continued weather issues in South America. However, Ryan points out the fact that there is such a massive production area in South America now that short term rallies in the market are opportunities to continue selling both old crop and 2024 crop.
Thanksgiving is this week and it’s the time to reflect on the past year and the upcoming year.
We are so blessed in agriculture that: “We get to do what we love.” Be sure to take some time with family and talk about your blessings and what you are thankful for.
#542 - “Pricing Headwinds” Weekly Market Outlook Nov. 13-17th
Jarod Creed with JC Ag Financial visits with Chris on this week's episode.
The conversation begins with a discussion around final harvest results as many producers wrap up the 2023 harvest with a few areas still challenged with wet grain conditions.
Jarod reviews last week's WASDE report and talks about what it might mean for producers in the months ahead.
They go on to discuss numerous other topics, which include South American weather, Chinese demand, and the funds.
The balance of the conversation involves a detailed discussion around numerous considerations as producers do the math in order to decide how to market the remainder of the 2023 grain inventory while facing a bleak price picture.
Numerous layers factor in the discussion, as producers will need to balance opportunities with flat price, basis levels, storage cost, interest rates, inflation, market carry, and cash flow needs.
#541 - "What Price Can't You Sell For?" Weekly Market Outlook: Nov. 6-10th
Mark Welch, Grain Marketing Economist at Texas A&M visits with Chris in this week's episode.
Mark starts the conversation talking about the issue of having a large carry over in corn. Coupled with limited demand. Price pressure on corn is likely to persist.
Mark goes on to discuss some considerations and the importance of taking advantage of short-term price rallies and feeding the market along the way.
Mark also hits on the idea that farmers need to pay close attention to managing their line of credit, interest rates, basis levels, and cash flow.
From Mark’s perspective, soybeans, may have more opportunity for price, strength than corn based on fundamental information.
They continue the conversation discussing management considerations for 2024 input purchasing, and Marketing.
Mark wraps up the conversation with Chris on the perspective that everyone should know: "What price they can’t sell for.” In other words, what price “does work "and where is the danger zone that you need to have Sales made?