The Ag View Pitch

Troy Deutmeyer area Agronomist with Pioneer visits with Chris in this spring agronomy update.

They start the conversation discussing the keys to effective tillage. One of the keys areas Troy talks about is the importance of running the tillage tool in the same direction as the planter. He goes on to talk about several other factors around planting into strip till.

They go onto discuss the importance of planter settings. Managing the row, cleaners, seeding depth, spacing, variable rate, seeding, and soil conditions.

They continue discussing crop protection and managing your sprayer passes.

They wrap up the conversation discussing importance of managing your ROI as you make decisions on certain products for your crop.

Duane Lowry is visiting Chris in this week's Market Outlook.

Chris quizzes Duane on some of the key fundamentals to watch, as we head into spring planting season.

Duane acknowledges the burdensome supply of grain, which is one of the key factors pressuring the market. However, he explains several opportunities that could give us a short window of pricing opportunity.

The upside price opportunities are likely limited. However, Duane sees the importance of having targets in play and being willing to get some level of new crop priced during these opportunities, especially during the planting season.

They go on to discuss energy prices, summer weather, possible acreage shifts, geopolitical possibilities, and Fund positioning as we continue through the year.

Shay and Chris introduce Andy Hruby and Joe Paulson.

Andy and Joe now take on the role as the newest team members with Ag View Solutions.

Both Andy and Joe introduce themselves. They both explain their farming operations and how they got started working with Ag View Solutions.

Andy and Joe will play an intricate role with the team. They will be working with individual farm operations on collaboration, transition, succession planning, profit manager, and peer group facilitation.

Finally, in the discussion, Shay announces that he will away on a military deployment. Shay is part of the Illinois National Guard and will be away for an indefinite period of time. However, once Shay is back, he will pick up his role where he left off.

In the meantime:

Chris, Andy, and Joe will back Shay up while he is away.

We are so thankful for Shay and his military service, and all who bravely and selflessly serve our country!

Please reach out if any of you have questions.

Joe visits with Chris in this week’s weekly market Outlook.

Joe breaks down the numbers from the crop production and supply & demand reports.

Chris quizzes Joe on what the potential acre mix could mean to the markets moving forward in the next couple of months.

Demand continues to be extremely dismal with no changes expected.

Weather is still a potential threat within key production areas being very dry; however, markets are unlikely to move without BIG production issues.

If production issues do arise, they will likely be short-lived, in terms of pricing opportunities. Joe points out that producers will need to be aggressive to take advantage of profit margins, if and when they come.

Chris and Joe wrap up the conversation, talking about outside markets, including interest rates, energy prices, and currencies.

Jarod Creed With, JC Marketing visits with Chris in this week’s market Outlook.

They start the conversation talking about how the cost of production in 2024 has not reduced much from the costs in 2023.

Producers are struggling with the fact that crop budgets are in the red and it will take increased yields to bring the cost of production down this year to get in line with current market prices.

Their conversation continues at length discussing numerous options to consider in order to capture some success out amongst all the challenges that we face as we head into spring planting.

Setting a margin target, being disciplined, and taking on a modest opportunity may be a huge win for 2024.

Nobody knows where price levels could go on spring rally; however, the risk on the other side of the equation is significant!

Mike Oberbroeckling from Garnavillo Iowa visits with Chris in this episode of Dads Wisdom.

Mike talks about the history of his farming career and some of the lessons he learned from his dad along the way.

Mike goes on to talk about the extreme importance of his wife and family and the many of the lessons learned over his career of farming.

Mike emphasizes the importance of learning from your mistakes, staying at challenging projects, and putting the time in necessary to create a successful business.

When asked about a biggest mistake; his answer rhymed with what many producers say. “They wish they would’ve bought more farmland during the course of their career.”

Mike has had an extremely successful operation and his two boys are continuing to grow the operation today with a phenomenal team of employees.

There are many of tidbits of wisdom that you’ll be able to capture in this episode! ENJOY!

Dr. Kurt House with Medical Associates of Independence Iowa, visits with Chris about the most important piece of equipment on your farm.

We don’t think twice about changing the oil on our tractor timely or greasing machines daily to keep all of our equipment in top-notch shape.

How are you doing with your body? It’s the one piece of equipment that has the most value on your entire farm.

Unfortunately, many people neglect the most important piece of equipment with the excuse of “not enough time”, or “simply not a priority.”

This is a conversation around some tactics that can help you to improve yourself from a health perspective.

Not taking care of yourself now can be an expensive endeavor later on in life. It’s not any different than not caring for your equipment.

Dr. House and Chris go on to discuss some key things that can change your life by creating a healthy environment for yourself and ensure that you’re around to enjoy farming as long as you want, before you pass it along to the next generation.

The key topics discussed include exercise, sleep, nutrition, water intake, mental health, and safety.

Investing time in your health, both physically, and mentally will impact the bottom line of your business financially faster than investing in any other piece of equipment on the farm.

Today Joe has a chat with Greg Mcbride.  Joe and Greg discuss the March WASDE report and the importance of having a plan to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves.

Today Joe Paulson sits down with Brent Judisch with P&K Midwest about spring preparations. 

In this episode Brent talks about best practices in getting planters, sprayers, tractors, and tillage pieces ready to go. 

In this episode of the Weekly Market Outlook, we have a discussion with Jarod Creed about not necessarily bullish news but lack of additional bearish news.  If this is a short-term bottom and we get a rally, we need to be ready to pull the trigger on sales.

Shay talks with Jarod Creed on the ways Margin Protection is influencing current producer decisions, considerations for the year ahead, and some helpful examples to better understand it's use as a hedge in your operation.

In today’s Weekly Market Outlook, we have a conversation with Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net. 

With March unpriced basis contracts coming due plus option expiration does this portend a short-term bottom with a bounce in corn prices. 

If so, farmers need to be quick to take advantage of this.  We also discuss some options for unsold 2023 corn.

Shay talks with a co-founder, Charles, and also the Director of Sales, TJ, on what the Farmers Business Network is, it's history, and why you should consider how their business may fit into your operational needs.

Jeff Fichtelman visits with Chris in this week’s Market outlook episode.

Jeff talks about how the Funds continue to add to their short positions, pressuring price levels.

The funds continue to follow the trend lower and seemingly increase the price pressure as they add to their short positions.

Fortunately, some areas are starting to have improving basis levels, however; if prices do start to rebound, these basis levels will evaporate rapidly.

Jeff goes on to explain the phenomenon called “price decision fatigue.”

He points out that many producers mentally have decided not to make sales until the market rebounds. Unfortunately, the price has done nothing but go down systematically since late October. This downward trend has created the situation that mini producers are paralyzed and not willing to make sales at this point.

Jeff challenges producers to make a sale at some point on old crap bushels in order to at least price some bushels with the hopes of that being the “worst sale” of the remaining bushels. Conversely, if the price does go lower at least you’ve got some sales on the books.

With the funds being short and producers having a huge volume of old crop corn on hand, the likelihood of much of a price increase is limited.

 Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net visits with Chris in this weeks episode.

Matt and Chris discuss the market pressures that continue to weigh on prices.

As we are working through the February crop insurance price discovery for corn and soybeans; Matt and Chris discuss some of the possibilities and potential considerations as we move toward the March decision timeframe.

They go onto to discuss outside fundamentals, such as the funds taking on additional short positions potentially, weather in South America, basis levels, and demand pressures.

They wrap up the conversation discussing some practical considerations for 2024 along with some considerations for offloading, the balance of the 2023 crop as opportunities “hopefully” present themselves.

Shay and Nick discuss Harvest Profit, things affecting the industry of agriculture, and some practices we use for thinking about business decision-making, knowing ourselves, and more. Enjoy and please share!

Jarod Creed with JC Marketing, visits with Chris in this week’s episode.

At the beginning of the February price discovery for crop insurance; corn comes in around $4.77 while soybeans come in around $11.70.

Jarod and Chris discussed the possibility of market movers during the month of February, however, unless the Funds begin to lighten up on short positioning, all other prospects for moving the markets higher look bleak currently.

Additionally, with the massive amount of old crop corn still in farmers hands, it makes any price increase extremely difficult.

The balance of the conversation revolves around strategies to consider with your crop insurance plans.

Jarod goes on to explain numerous programs which are available through different insurance companies in order to minimize risk as think through the best decisions to protect your farms bottom line.

Ryan Moe guest hosts this episode with Scott Klososky (Founder of Future Point of View) which was recorded at the Ag View Executive Business Conference.

Scott explains the current and future uses of AI and the impact it could have on our businesses. We are in the midst of rapid changes in technology.

Scott explains some of the opportunities and challenges with the technology. Either way it’s coming fast!

Ryan Moe guest hosts this conversation with Jason Kuhn former Division 1 Athlete, and Navy SEAL Sniper.

Jason gives brief story of his process to becoming a Navy SEAL and how some of the lessons learned can be applied in our ag businesses.

Jason gave an extremely motivational and impacting presentation at the Ag View Executive Business Conference, this discussion is a short summary of some of what he talked about at the conference.

Joe Vaclavik guest host this week’s Market Outlook episode from the Ag View Executive Business Conference in Phoenix Arizona.

Joe talks with Jarod Creed and Peter Meyer. They take a look ahead and discuss some of the opportunities and challenges over the next few weeks as we try to dig out of continued low price action.

Shay talks with Mike Downey of Next gen Ag Advocates on transition planning, how to get started, and what to consider in 2024 and beyond. They also touch on investing off the farm with farmer groups.

Matt Bennett, with AgMarket.Net visits with Chris on this week's market outlook.  

The conversation begins with a discussion around the possibility of pricing opportunities in the first half of January.

They go on to talk about some of the opportunities and challenges that could come out of the upcoming January 12 USDA report.  

The balance of the conversation consists of discussions around the funds, money flow, US dollar weakness, and the importance of managing your numbers on your own operation to take advantage of profit opportunities when they present themselves.

They wrap up  the conversation talking about the 2024 acre mix possibilities between corn and soybeans.

Chris and Shay join each other in conversation; each with their top 5 lessons learned in the past year.

Neither Shay nor Chris knows each other’s lessons learned before the recording which makes this an interesting conversation as they share their lessons from the past year.

Get a pen and paper out and jot down the 10 lessons as Shay and Chris share their list with each other and compare those with the lessons you have learned in your operation over the past year.

We encourage you to share your lessons with us and provide any feedback, so that we can all benefit from lessons learned in 2023.

Chip Flory with AgriTalk visits with Chris in this week’s episode.

Chris begins with a question for Chip on how to navigate all of the noise and opinions around Marketing. Chip provides some excellent perspective on navigating your information sources.

Chris continues the conversation around the challenge of the 2023 unsold bushel. Chip provides perspective around the importance of “controlling your inventory.” Setting a price and opening the upside potential as one key consideration in the discussion.

Chris paints a scenario in the event we see a price rally for the 2024 crop in January. They discuss possibilities and the importance of capturing profitability and limiting risk.

They also discuss a number of other areas, including export demand, current and future possibilities from sustainable airplane fuel, inflation outlook, and interest rates.

They wrap up the conversation talking about the acre mix possibilities as we head into 2024.

Jarod Creed with JC Marketing visits with Chris in this week’s episode.

This discussion is a three-part conversation that starts with opportunities to consider for the 2024 marketing year.

1. Jarod explains several strategies to minimize risk in the 2024 season.
2. Jarod and Chris, discuss the challenges and opportunities as growers navigate pricing the remaining production from the 2023 season.
3. Jarod and Chris discuss some interesting observations as producers begin conversations with lenders on loan renewals. Some startling reductions in working capital are beginning to show up on some balance sheets for a number of reasons. They go on to discuss some of the factors influencing the working capital reduction.

Lewis Stearns with progressive Crop Solutions doesn't need his work to be sexy- he needs it to to work. And his work is putting your data to work for you. We are all guilty of not managing our farm data like we should, and Lewis and his team work with farms to get them where they need to eb, and provide a stand-alone report card on how your business and farm is doing, without telling you how to farm. Today Shay and Lewis discuss some key objectives for the year ahead, and address common questions and challenges faced in farm data.

2024 mistakes to avoid:

1. Mislabeling Products- clean data in, clean data out

2. Calibrations- recalibrate con every 5% moisture and between hybrids

3. Multiple Machine calibrations and data management post or mid-harvest

4. Improper Storage of historical information

We need to add a new "basic" level of farm management to the playbook- fertility, pH, drainage, timeliness, and now data management.

You can reach Lewis at lewis.stearns@progressivecrops.com or check out the website at progressivecrops.com

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Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net visits with Chris in this week's episode.

The conversation revolves around the following theme. There are significant similarities this year to what we saw in 2013.   This doesn’t necessarily mean we will see the exact same scenarios play out however, there are significant conditions that rhyme with 2013 and create a risky scenario that producers will need to navigate in the coming weeks and months in order to mitigate risk and capture subtle Profit opportunities.

The conversation weaves through several topics to pay attention to including commercial positions, managing basis, opportunities, South American weather, fund positioning, and possible export demand.

They go on discussing the idea that managing risk going into 2024 will be paramount as you look at your marketing plan and consider the price levels that work on your individual farm. They wrap up the conversation talking about several possibilities that could give us strength in the grain Markets however, setting your price targets and limiting downside risk is advisable with the potential headwinds of 2024.

Pete Meyer visits with Chris in this week's episode.

They start the conversation discussing recent volatility in the Soybean market.

What would it take to break out of the current price range and how much impact is South American weather having?

Peter does make the comment to be careful in “weather markets” and take advantage of rallies when opportunities present themselves.

They go on to discuss some practical decision considerations in order to take advantage of carry in the market, while at the same time, factoring in interest rates, storage cost, and cash flow needs.

They wrap up the conversation discussing the general economy, the value of the dollar, energy prices, geopolitical issues, inflation, interest rates, and the stock market.

Ryan Moe with Stone X visits with Chris in this week’s market outlook.

Producers in the east, continue harvesting high yields, high moistures, and running out of space.

Producers in the west, have shut the Bin doors and are struggling with what to do with unsold bushels.

Ryan expects the Funds to have very limited and light trade in the upcoming week, and possibly as we head toward the end of the year as many traders are exiting commodity positions for the time being.

Ryan goes on to explain the fact that end-users have plenty of grain, but do not have the ownership. Capturing strong basis levels as we move forward in time now may become more of a challenge, especially in the east.

Some pricing opportunities could possibly arise if we see continued weather issues in South America. However, Ryan points out the fact that there is such a massive production area in South America now that short term rallies in the market are opportunities to continue selling both old crop and 2024 crop.

Thanksgiving is this week and it’s the time to reflect on the past year and the upcoming year.

We are so blessed in agriculture that: “We get to do what we love.” Be sure to take some time with family and talk about your blessings and what you are thankful for.

Jarod Creed with JC Ag Financial visits with Chris on this week's episode.

The conversation begins with a discussion around final harvest results as many producers wrap up the 2023 harvest with a few areas still challenged with wet grain conditions.

Jarod reviews last week's WASDE report and talks about what it might mean for producers in the months ahead.

They go on to discuss numerous other topics, which include South American weather, Chinese demand, and the funds.

The balance of the conversation involves a detailed discussion around numerous considerations as producers do the math in order to decide how to market the remainder of the 2023 grain inventory while facing a bleak price picture.

Numerous layers factor in the discussion, as producers will need to balance opportunities with flat price, basis levels, storage cost, interest rates, inflation, market carry, and cash flow needs.

Mark Welch, Grain Marketing Economist at Texas A&M visits with Chris in this week's episode.

Mark starts the conversation talking about the issue of having a large carry over in corn. Coupled with limited demand. Price pressure on corn is likely to persist.

Mark goes on to discuss some considerations and the importance of taking advantage of short-term price rallies and feeding the market along the way.

Mark also hits on the idea that farmers need to pay close attention to managing their line of credit, interest rates, basis levels, and cash flow.

From Mark’s perspective, soybeans, may have more opportunity for price, strength than corn based on fundamental information.

They continue the conversation discussing management considerations for 2024 input purchasing, and Marketing.

Mark wraps up the conversation with Chris on the perspective that everyone should know: "What price they can’t sell for.” In other words, what price “does work "and where is the danger zone that you need to have Sales made?

Joe Vaclavik with Standard Grain talks with Chris in this episode as producers continue to chip away at harvest.

They start the conversation around harvest progress but lean into what has become the biggest question for many producers. “What should I do with my unpriced bushels? This is a huge question for many producers with a lot of things to take into account as these decisions are made. When to sell, and what is the appropriate price levels? Careful consideration is needed on numerous variables, such as interest rates, storage cost, average selling price, tax considerations, and cash flow needs.

They continue the conversation around some potential demand improvements, which could possibly include some South American weather challenges during their growing season.

They wrap up the conversation discussing some of the technicals around possible price movement and ask the question: “What is a low price in the future?” “Have we reached a new plateau which could limit the downside?

Shay and Matt Bennett discuss WASDE, harvest lows, 2024 outlook, and even 2025…

Shay and Paul discuss payment in kind and charitable contributions and where they might be a fit in your farm and family.

Clark Neighbor, President at BIS Commodities in Cedar Rapids, Iowa visits with Chris about numerous marketing fundamentals to watch as we get deeper into harvest and beyond.

1. Harvest progress.
2. USDA, Quarterly Stocks report details.
3. Managing unsold bushels / Storage.
4. Technical price ranges to pay attention to.
5. Impact of low river levels on grain movement.
6. Doing your math: managing carry in the market, storage cost, interest rates, basis, and cash flow.
7. Lack of export demand.
8. Crops growing in South America.
9. Fund positioning for both corn and soybeans.
10. Stay safe, this harvest season!

Jarod Creed with JC Marketing visits with Chris and Guest Host, Joe Paulson, farmer from DeKalb County Illinois. They begin the conversation discussing early harvest results that seem to be extremely variable across the country. Joe leads with the question around basis levels and what we can expect not only during harvest but throughout the next several months as we finish out 2023, and begin early 2024. Jarod talks about the “very” low river levels, regional yield differences, and the impact this could have on basis both short and long-term. They also discuss whether or not the recent price pressure on corn and soybeans will continue or worsen as we head into the gut slot of harvest. The balance of the discussion revolves around your crop insurance, indemnity potential’s for 2023 and an in-depth discussion on what margin protection MP could protect as you think about risk management for 2024. Jarod does an excellent job of mapping out two different scenarios so that you understand the math behind margin protection. This podcast is also on YouTube so if you’d like to see the visual of that portion of the conversation, check it out on YouTube also.

Peter Meyer with S&P Global talks with Chris about a number of market conditions to focus on as we get deeper into harvest. The conversation starts with Peter unwinding some of the results from last weeks. USDA report. He explains the increase in planted acres for corn and the justification for USDA’s average yield numbers. Peter sees the market, continuing in a “tight trading range” for both corn and soybeans as we transition from September into October. Light trading volume and limited demand make it difficult for the market to go up, conversely, he doesn’t see much downside risk at this time either. They continue the conversation discussing demand issues and opportunities. Peter cautions producers to watch 2024 opportunities closely, as our ability to “over produce” should be a real concern with the quality of today’s genetics, and production techniques, even in the face of weather adversities. They wrap up the conversation discussing Argentina and Brazil competition, and the importance that renewable fuel demand will have for corn and soybean prices into the future, but it still may be late 2024 or into 2025 before this opportunity is truly realized.