The Ainslie News Podcast
Daily gold and silver economic news conveniently delivered in audio format. Ainslie Bullion is one of Australia's leading gold & silver bullion dealers, since 1974. With our live pricing, historical price charts, and huge range of gold, silver and platinum. Ainslie produce and sell our own range of gold and silver bullion offering world class products at 'local' prices.
AUD hits 60 handle – more to come?
Friday night saw the latest NFP employment figures out of the US and whilst it was a big miss in the number of newly employed at just 210,000 the unemployment rate dropped as participation remains stubbornly low. This has experts wondering if the participation rate has been structurally changed by COVD. We discuss the impacts on the AUD.
December 6, 2021
Its not just supply chains! Why inflation is at both ends
As we wrote on Wednesday, even Fed Chair Jerome ‘Transitory’ Powell is conceding this inflation set up is anything but transitory. The problem is they are still citing ‘supply chain issues’ as the key driver but the evidence on the demand side is just as compelling. Australia is already seeing the unintended consequences of the ‘policy error’…
December 3, 2021
Bye bye “transitory” hello “End Game”
We discuss the big moves in markets yesterday and overnight as Powell drops ‘transitory’, Moderna warn around vaccines and Omicron and then Julian Brigden’s massive call on the USD. Certainly a must read today.
December 1, 2021
The Final Dip?
The market continues to drawdown this week, despite Short- and Long-Term investors holding more profitable supply than the recent correction in September. Bitcoin traded lower this week, alongside weakness across many traditional assets, largely due to renewed concerns over new virus variants. Bitcoin's price opened at a high of $59,339 US and reached the lowest price for the month of $53,569. This continues the price correction that has been in play for most of November.
November 30, 2021
A Fascinating Journey – How we got here and what to do.
The following Tweet on Saturday whilst with a Bitcoin ending is just as applicable and bullish for gold and silver. Its about money and it is a fantastic journey through history that everyone should read. We don’t know or implicitly endorse the author, but to be fair he largely drew from an interview with Roaul Pal who we do rate.
November 29, 2021
Gold Price – Why the correction & where to from here?
Gold has had a wild old ride over the last month, surging to highs not seen in a year before falling back to August levels over the last week. Today we look at why and where to from here?
November 26, 2021
Turkey and Venezuela turn to gold
Gold is going parabolic in Turkey just as the citizens of Venezuela turn to flakes of gold to pay for goods and services. Yesterday, the Turkish Lira fell to a historic low in USD terms, as annual inflation now nears 20%. They aren’t the only two inflation hot-spots, with threats of “super-inflation” brewing across the globe.
November 24, 2021
Central Banks Buying Gold – Don’t Do As I Do, Do as I Say
Sovereign states are again piling into gold. The world’s central banks net bought 393 tonne of gold in the first 3 quarters of this year, more than all of the full year’s 255 tonne bought in 2020. China is back with vengeance, Russia too and Poland’s central bank president laid out very clearly why they will buy another 100 tonne next year. We put Australia into context and discuss.
November 24, 2021
Are You Buying The Dip?
The Bitcoin price tumbled this week from a high of $66,281 to a low of $55,705, rattling a previously quiet and bullish run-in price action. While price stays pinned below new highs and sentiment remains scattered, Bitcoin's stakeholders are actively adjusting to new market information. This has shown up as a recent shifting of coin distribution amongst holders.
November 23, 2021
$200m Payday for CFTC Whistleblower
The CFTC, US commodities watchdog, has announced a $200 million payday for a whistleblower who provided significant contributions to ‘enforcement actions that have resulted in monetary sanctions totalling more than $3 billion. Given that the largest (known) CFTC fine was JP Morgans for $920 million for manipulating precious metals markets, market commentators are speculating that the two may be connected.
November 22, 2021
Bitcoin Taproot Upgrade Takes Hold
Bitcoin just got better! Block 709,632 was officially the first Bitcoin block mined with the new Taproot upgrade. This marks the first upgrade since 2017 which saw both the “soft fork” Segregated Witness as well as a “hard fork” which led to the creation of Bitcoin Cash. Let’s take a dive in and see what this upgrade has in store for Bitcoin and it’s hodlers.
November 18, 2021
RBA’s own ‘policy error’ comes home to roost
It is becoming increasingly hard for ‘believests’ to ignore what is so clearly coming in The Lucky Country and that directly correlates with Ainslie being increasingly busy with people buying up bullion and crypto to protect themselves. Today we talk to the RBA’s failed YCC experiment and the problem it leaves behind with no real solution.
November 17, 2021
Mainstream narrative turning on The Fed
Last week's “surprise” inflation numbers rippled through the mainstream financial media. While precious metals investors have seen this coming since QE1, the last few weeks have seen growing murmurs coming from traditional media that are now gathering consensus. Tasked with controlling inflation, the Federal Reserve has been hailed as the savior of financial markets since the GFC, but we may be seeing the first signs of the hens coming home to roost on their policies.
November 15, 2021
MUST READ – Paying for Easy Money – The US Fiscal Ponzi Scheme
So what’s the best thing you could do to ease multi-decade-high inflationary pressures and record high ($29 trillion + $159 trillion unfunded) debt burdens if you were the US Government? Approve a $1 trillion deficit funded infrastructure plan of course! This week saw exactly that happen and on Monday Joe Biden will sign the largest federal investment in infrastructure bill in over a decade. Moreover, in securing the deal he got Democrat support too for ANOTHER $1.75 trillion for the Build Back Better bill (social safety net and climate package) and a commitment to railroad it past the Republicans in the senate. 2.75 thousand billion dollarspaid for, not through tax receipts, but by issuing more debt with the disarming name of US Treasury bonds… We discuss and share an excellent insight on it all from one of our favourite economists. Take the time to read it all over the weekend.
November 12, 2021
Onchain Data Suggests More Gains for Crypto
Bitcoin has had a remarkably strong week, consolidating between $59,743 US and $64,242, holding onto almost all of Octobers gains. As the Bitcoin price coils into what appears to be a very tight bull flag, the onchain market continues to show strength in supply dynamics, whilst onchain activity remains well below bull market highs.
November 9, 2021
The Wall Street Silver Generation
The Gamestop and AMC mania of early 2021 lit a fire underneath young investors, capturing the imaginations of a new generation. Starting off as an offshoot of its namesake, r/wallstreetsilver now plays host to 165,000 “apes”, with hundreds “in the jungle” at any one time. The movement also has a Youtube channel with interviews with many of the industry heavy hitters, and an extremely active community of silver bugs.
November 7, 2021
Aussie Property & Rising Rates - “largest property correction on record”
Gold and silver had strong rallies last night, reclaiming what was lost after the Fed taper announcement and more. Whilst the financial markets rejoice at the Fed maintaining zero interest rates for longer and only very slowly reducing QE, the realization that this will do nothing to quell surging inflation is returning to the investment narrative. Today we discuss how the RBA fit in here and what may be ahead for Aussie property.
November 5, 2021
Taper Take-off versus Tantrum – “practically miraculous”
Buy the rumour sell the fact became sell the rumour buy the fact last night as the Fed confirmed it will commence tapering this month and shares….. went up!? In a classic human behavioural response given the almost certain announcement, the market clearly hasn’t put the following 2 charts side by side…
November 4, 2021
RBA buying A$4 billion a week in bonds
Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released it’s monthly statement on Monetary Policy Decisions. They are continuing to purchase bonds issued by the Australian Government at a rate of A$4 billion per week. The cash rate remains at 0.10%, a rate it has remained at now since November of 2020. They have halted their yield curve control program and quietly dropped the written assurance rates won’t rise until 2024 in the only concession to rising inflation. The RBA has also quietly tripled their holdings in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).
November 3, 2021
WGC - Gold Demand Trends Q3 2021
The World Gold Council’s quarterly demand trends report is out for Q3 and as usual we summarise for you.
November 1, 2021
The Scramble for Ounces in the Ground
Mergers and acquisitions are picking up in both the precious metals and base metals miners as majors scramble to guarantee ongoing supply. The combination of reduced exploration due to persistently low metals prices as well as additional demand attributable to the ‘costs of going green’ are leading to a trend of consolidation in the sector.
October 28, 2021
“Biggest monetary policy mistake in more than 40 years”
Like it or loath it, the fact is that the US economy and its puppeteer, the US Federal Reserve, call the global economic shots. Custodians of the world’s reserve currency, issuer of the world’s largest debt pile, and of course the world’s largest economy. In this context when one of the most respected economists, Mohamed A. El-Erian, warns that the Fed is risking a “historic policy error whose negative implications could last for years and extend well beyond the U.S.”, well, you listen.
October 27, 2021
BTC and ETH Hit New All-Time Highs
Bitcoin has rallied to new all-time highs this week, following the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (Ticker $BITO). The market pushed above Aprils previous ATH ($64,717 US) to reach a new peak of $66,928 US. The market has since corrected, putting in a weekly low of $59,722.
October 26, 2021
Chinese & Indian Gold Demand Surge
The world’s biggest consumers of gold, China and India are both showing early signs of a big rebound in demand. This coincides with early signs that Australia may take over the world’s biggest producer crown as Chinese gold production falls further. We discuss.
October 22, 2021
Platinum the big winner from the “Green hydrogen” economy
The race to decarbonise is leading governments to look at alternative energy sources such as hydrogen. From Boris Johnson’s 10-point plan for a “green industrial revolution”, to significant subsidies to Chinese fuel cell producers, hydrogen is set to continue to emerge as a major economic sector. Platinum is an irreplaceable component in both the energy production side as well as the fuel cell storage.
October 20, 2021
Brigden says Buy Platinum and Silver now!
Whilst we will most certainly look back in abject wonder at this current economic setup, whether we do so with glee or regret largely depends on how you position yourself now. Today we discuss a record divergence and present Julian Brigden’s call to buy platinum and silver now.
October 20, 2021
A Historic Week for Crypto
It has been an exciting week for Bitcoin investors as the SEC approves the first Bitcoin futures backed ETF product. The market continued to rally on the news from a low of $54,370 US to a high of $62,503. At the weekly peak, prices were within $2,214 of the current all-time-high at $64,717.
October 19, 2021
Silvers Global Supply Chain & Paper Promises
Silver investors are often unaware of where it comes from and where it goes. Today we share a great info graphic from Visual Capitalist on where it comes from but first for some context before you read those numbers we look at what happened in the paper markets over the last week.
October 17, 2021
China (and globe) Hit With Surging Costs – Stagflation Cometh
China, it seems, can’t grab a break. Amid the turmoil of the much talked about property crisis, the Chinese engine room, manufacturing, is showing signs of stress that may force Beijing’s hand on the monetary stimulus lever at the very worst time. We outline why and why this is a global issue, not just a Chinese one.
October 14, 2021
Crypto Market Strong at Highs
The Bitcoin market has continued to show strength this week, with prices trading within a tight consolidation range, with a low at $53,657, and a high of $56,250. Following an impressive rally from the September lows, the market has managed to hold onto the gains whilst on-chain activity has commenced a welcome climb higher.
October 11, 2021
Aussie Construction Shutdown. Silicon the straw to break the back?
Whilst all focus on construction in the press appears to concentrate on COVID workplace restrictions, an even bigger threat is quietly building, and that is the supply and cost of materials. With so much riding on construction in this country the lack of discourse on materials threatens a rude shock.
October 11, 2021
Silver- ‘The world’s most undervalued commodity’
Yesterday we queried when silver may get caught up in the global supply chain squeeze affecting so many commodities right now. Today we put the demand and supply equation firmly into perspective particularly against the paper futures market positions arguably holding that price back.
October 7, 2021
Inflation & “Terminal Phase of Bubble Excess”
Clear and concerning signals out of China and the US are coinciding with a contemporary reminder of the impacts of abuse of a Fiat currency when Venezuela again just cut six zeros from the bolivar currency in response to hyperinflation. We share some excellent insight into the state of play in the global monetary system.
October 6, 2021
Honey, they shrunk the groceries: Shrinkflation on the rise
Manufacturers and producers fighting increasing cost pressures are increasingly resorting to ‘shrinkflation’, offering a marginally smaller version of the same product, at the same price. If changes are incremental, then consumers are unlikely to notice the difference. While unscrupulous sellers have sought to short change their hapless unsuspecting customers since the dawn of commerce, there is more and more evidence of the purchasing power of many currencies eroding.
October 1, 2021
The Absolute Valuation Approach to Crypto Assets
Bitcoin's off-chain velocity is at an all-time high. Fiat currency with high velocity is normally a bad sign, but does that rule apply to crypto?
September 30, 2021
Insider Trading at the Federal Reserve
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren have now resigned from their posts after being exposed by the Wall Street Journal for insider trading last week. Kaplan was found to have made major trades in companies such as Tesla, Amazon, Facebook and Johnson & Johnson. Rosengren invested in real estate trusts that dealt with the very mortgage backed bonds that have been bought up by the Fed aggressively in 2020.
September 29, 2021
Crypto Market Rangebound – Where to Next?
The Bitcoin market experienced volatile downside price action this week, opening at $47,328 on Monday and sliding to a low of $39,876. The sell-off comes alongside continued pressure on the industry from regulators, a sell-off in equities markets, challenging conditions in Chinese debt markets, and yet another Bitcoin ban in China.
September 28, 2021
Is silver trading at a discount?
While trending down from ATH of 125 from last year, the Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) remains at an historically elevated level of 78 at current price levels. This means that you can trade in a single ounce of the yellow metal, and get more than two kilos of silver back. In dollar terms though, Silver is probably the only thing you can buy today for less than it was in 1980.
September 27, 2021
Gold Miners to be hit in $3.5 trillion Spending Package
Capitol Hill Democrats are taking aim at U.S based mining projects with an 8% royalty fee on existing mines and 4% on new mines. The royalties are on precious metals as well as base metals such as copper and lithium. This added drag on mining would act as a headwind to already struggling metal supplies.
September 23, 2021
Fed Announces Announcing Taper – What Next?
Last night saw the latest US Fed meeting and (finally) ‘confirmation’ of what they have been jawboning for a while and that is tapering of QE to ‘likely’ start next month. Maybe because of all the lead up references the market did not, at this point, chuck a so called ‘taper tantrum’ as has occurred on previous attempts. We discuss.
September 23, 2021
Traditional Market Jitters Hit Crypto. Technical Data Remains Strong
The Bitcoin market traded slightly higher this week, opening at a low of $43,789 US, and trading up to an intra-day high of $48,730. Prices are forming a consolidation trading range after the volatile sell-off that started last week, clearing $4B in excess leverage in one hour.
September 21, 2021
Big Trouble in “Evergrande” China
It's Friday and whilst not the 13th, it ends the week that marked the 13th anniversary of Lehman Brothers collapsing and cementing the contagion of what would become the GFC, one of the worst financial crashes in history. So over leveraged was the system that it’s all it took for the whole house of cards to come down. Coincidentally this week also saw China’s largest property developer, $300 billion Evergrande, technically default as well as the Institute of International Finance (IIF) releasing its latest global debt figures headlining another record high. We discuss the implications.
September 17, 2021
40,000 Comex Gold Contracts acquired by Anonymous Whale
Whales moving the markets are more common in crypto, but since 10 August, a new major player has appeared on the long side of the gold futures contracts market. Raw data shows a large non-commercial trader has amassed as many as 40,000 COMEX gold contracts, the equivalent of 4 million ounces of gold - a cool $AU9.85bn.
September 15, 2021
Debt Ceiling v Deficit v History – Here we go again
Last night saw more losses on Wall St as the CPI inflation print again came in strong, albeit slightly lower than expectations. ‘Transitory’ took another hit. This fuelled a strong gold rally and shares fell, now putting them in the red for the month so far. The prospect of higher rates and tapering amid the debate over the US’s next massive $3.5 trillion deficit funding relief package and looming debt ceiling is increasingly weighing on the market’s mind. So let’s look a bit further at what is a truly mind blowing set up in the US.
September 15, 2021
10 years of negative returns or the tipping point?
Wall St had another bad night Friday night, capping off the worst week on the S&P500 since mid June and the first 5 day losing streak since February. The question of course is where to from here? SocGen’s model says 10 years of negative sharemarket returns ahead. Does this see the Fed’s eye’s roll back?
September 13, 2021
“Stunning” record in Corporate Bonds that Can’t be Ignored
If anyone needed reminding about the extent to which easy money is inflating sharemarkets the charts below paint a clear picture. In a nutshell, the zero interest rate and QE fuelled monetary stimulus central bank policies are designed to rob you of any traditional ‘safe’ yield via savings or bonds and force you to look for yield via shares and make everything look awesome. If you are a company, that includes buying back your own.
September 9, 2021
“What were you thinking?” – Dotcom warning redux
The US sharemarket jitters extended last night and is set to see losses in our local market this morning. Whilst some of the pressure was due to weakening growth concerns and worsening COVID fears, paradoxically concerns of tightening supply chains and labour markets yet again raises the dual spectre of forcing the Fed’s hand at tapering amid lurking stagflation.
September 8, 2021
Hedge Fund Moguls Mobius and Paulson Recommend Gold
Famed Fund Manager Mark Mobius has advocated for the Golden Rule: “10% should be put into Physical Gold”. The Mobius Capital Partners founder argued, “Currency devaluation globally is going to be quite significant next year given the incredible amount of money supply that has been printed.”With US$86.6 Million AUM, it’s not the biggest fish in the sea, but is a part of a growing chorus of market participants seeking a safe haven.
September 8, 2021
Ainslie Wealth Adds Polygon (MATIC)
Last week we added Polygon (MATIC) to our Ainslie Wealth products. Polygon’s unique features and exciting roadmap make it an opportunity for those looking to diversify their crypto portfolios into some non-top-10 coins. Let’s jump into what the Polygon network does and is attempting to achieve…
September 7, 2021
36% Crash Ahead for S&P500?
There is a sense of growing uncertainty in US equity markets despite, or maybe because of, their hitting all time highs this week amid growing concerns around the Fed’s next move and growth concerns. Last night saw a correction of nearly 1% ostensibly on the back of poor retail sales data joining a host of disappointing economic data potentially signalling weakness ahead. We look at a number of metrics screaming warnings to investors right now and what they say about gold.
August 18, 2021
BTC & ETH – Strength to Strength
The crypto market rallies higher as indications of a Bitcoin on-chain supply squeeze take shape, and Ethereum successfully rolls out EIP1559. After breaking recent highs, the two largest crypto’s look ready to make a run up back to the highs. Let’s jump into some on-chain metrics and have a look at the driving force behind these moves.
August 9, 2021
Negative Interest Rates Coming for Australia?
There is a growing view by economists that Australia will experience a double dip recession over Q3 and Q4 of this year with the latest from CBA calling for a 2.7% contraction in Q3. A recession is 2 consecutive quarters and with NSW expected to stay in lockdown until mid November as CBA’s base case, and the likelihood of continued but hopefully shorter lockdowns in other states, Q4 seems a real possibility after such a plunge in Q3. The chart below puts that single quarter -2.7% into context with the entire 1990’s recession being -1.7%.
August 9, 2021
Will precious metals be the next asset class to pop?
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August 5, 2021
WGC - Gold Demand Trends Q2 2021
The World Gold Council just released their latest quarterly Gold Demand Trends for Q2 2021 which saw a continuation of rampant bar and coin investment demand and a return to inflows into ETF’s. The quarter saw 955 tonne of gold consumed. As usual, we summarise across all uses and look at supply too. https://ainsliebullion.com.au
August 1, 2021
Where could this gold bull go? - If history repeats
Previous bull markets in gold have seen explosive moves to the upside in both dollar and percentage terms. Since the closing of the Gold Window in 1971, gold has seen two significant bull runs play out: 1971 to 1980 and 1999 to 2011. A number of commentators have argued that the low of US$1040 reached in January 2016 was the bottom of the present long-term bull run.
July 29, 2021
Strength Returns to BTC
Over the weekend we saw some good strength return to BTC as it increased off the bottom. Then on Monday, we experienced a textbook short squeeze and the market quickly approached recent highs. Can crypto break out of the recent bear market?
July 27, 2021
Rick Rule – Triple Gold Demand
Whilst today we share some excellent insight from Rick Rule, first the important context. Last night saw the 3rd red hot inflation print out of the US in a row. CPI came in nearly double expectations at 0.9% just for June, and Core CPI saw its biggest print in 30 years. The transitory inflation narrative is being severely tested and gold rose on the news. Legendary Rick Rule beautifully describes why.
July 14, 2021
Bitcoin on Verge of Breakout?
It has been an impressively quiet week in the crypto markets. Compressed prices alongside low volume indicate that we should see some significant action any day now. The direction this breakout moves will determine what the next few months will look like for BTC, let jump in further… Graphs and images: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-on-verge-of-breakout-/tabid/88/a/2549/default.aspx
July 13, 2021
Silver’s Uses Through the Ages
Today we step aside from the financial “monetary precious metal” use case of silver and take a journey through time looking at silver’s use over the millenia courtesy of the guys from Visual Capitalist. It is a salient reminder of silver’s dual use and value as monetary and industrial metal. Link to big image! https://www.visualcapitalist.com/silver-through-the-ages-the-uses-of-silver-over-time/
July 12, 2021
China’s “Own Goal”
Much of what has driven the price of Bitcoin down has to do with environmental concerns and the crack down on mining by the Chinese government. What many do not appreciate is that the latter could and should fundamentally be a great thing for Bitcoin in the longer term. But emotional markets take on FUD over fact too readily. So why could this be great for Bitcoin? We discuss. Full article and images: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/china-e2-80-99s-e2-80-9cown-goal-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2537/default.aspx
June 25, 2021
Gold Focus 2021 Report & ‘Peak Gold
We recently saw the release of the annual Gold Focus report from the independent precious metals focussed consultancy Metals Focus of London. Not surprisingly, given COVID disruptions, global gold mine production saw the biggest year on year decline since they started the report in 2010. Production fell by 119 tonne (3%) to 3,478 tonne. Today we look at where this came from and look forward to changes in the supply dynamic. Link to article and images: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-focus-2021-report--e2-80-98peak-gold-e2-80-99/tabid/88/a/2536/default.aspx
June 23, 2021
Inflation Today, Deflation Tomorrow – The trap
Longer term US Treasuries again fell Friday night as the bond ‘market of truth’ is sending an increasingly clear picture that it sees trouble ahead. Importantly too, the yield curve is flattening, big time, with the long term 30yr yield crashing to a 4 month low as 2 year bond yields rose. In other words whilst we might have short term inflation, the market is saying deflation or at least disinflation will prevail and the Fed will crank up the printers again. https://youtu.be/Q5cpRP61czI
June 21, 2021
BTC to Receive Upgrades
This morning we saw BTC climb above $40k USD. A variety of factors are at play, but one reason may be that Bitcoin has confirmed its first upgrade in four years. Let's jump into it…
June 15, 2021
US Inflation Shock – Testing the Transitory Narrative
Last night’s much anticipated inflation figures out of the US came in even hotter than expected at 5% against 4.7% expected. That is the highest headline inflation print since August 2008, just before Lehman collapsed. More critically the core CPI surged to 3.8%, the highest print in nearly 3 decades, back to the 1992 recession. However the market is still believing this is transitory. Whether it is or not the setup is incredibly constructive for gold. We discuss. https://youtu.be/5hnH4Vfpivk
June 10, 2021
China’s PPI Near All Time Record
China just sent a shockwave warning of potential trouble ahead with the worst PPI (Producer Price Index) or so called ‘factory gate inflation’ print since the GFC. Coming in above already high expectations of 8.5%, the 9.0% print was also just shy of the all time record of 10% during the GFC. However the kicker was that CPI only rose by 1.3% which was less than expectations of 1.6%. The difference between PPI and CPI is the greatest since 1993. Chart images: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/china-e2-80-99s-ppi-near-all-time-record/tabid/88/a/2526/default.aspx Or our YouTube for today: https://youtu.be/6oDZC1uaEFc
June 10, 2021
Bitcoin Adoption Ramping Up
El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele has announced through his Twitter account that he plans to make Bitcoin, the original and premier cryptocurrency, as a legal tender in their country. If the El Salvador President's proposal goes through, El Salvador will become the first country in the world to legally use Bitcoin as a digital legal tender. Want to see our charts, while listening to our PODCAST? subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/ainsliebullion
June 8, 2021
Goldilocks US Employment Good For Gold
After the better than expected jobless claims we discussed Friday, the US nonfarm payrolls came out on Friday night and fell below expectations but was strong enough to maintain faith in an improving economy. It was the quintessential ‘goldilocks’ outcome to allow the Fed to keep the printers going brrrrrr… Want to see the images, while listening? Check out our YouTube channel and subscribe. https://www.youtube.com/c/ainsliebullion
June 7, 2021
USD Spikes PM’s Fall – But ‘Impossible Trinity’ Remains
Last night saw the biggest daily gain for the US dollar since September last year on the back of better than expected employment figures via the ADP ahead of the all important NFP employment figures tonight. The USD index jumped 0.65% and back above 90 to 90.5. The spike saw nearly all financials in the red and USD gold smacked down nearly 2% and back under the $1900 line to $1870. Silver was down over 2.5% and back under $28 to $27.53. The AUD dropped to 76.6c on the back of the USD rise and cushioned the falls in AUD terms to 0.8% and 1.4% respectively. Is this a new trend or merely a news bite in the face of a much broader pressure down on the USD. We discuss. YouTube link : https://youtu.be/a1GV0CxS2N0
June 3, 2021
In Gold We Trust annual – “Monetary Climate Change”
The annual In Gold We Trust report has become the most eagerly awaited independent analysis and commentary of gold and silver markets. This week it was released and today we provide links to both the compact and the full 346 page version together with a video of highlights. Link to Compact Version - Compact Version - English (24 pages) Link to full version - Full Version - English (346 pages) Video with the key takeaways of the report - English version
June 1, 2021
Institutional “Diamond Hands”
Bitcoin is on track for the second-biggest monthly percentage decline on record, despite bouncing from session lows in Asia. The 37.5% decline in May 2021 is beat only by September 2011's 40%. Let us explain why that may be great for building your portfolio…
June 1, 2021
Silver Demand Explodes – Industrial AND Investment
The web was aflutter over the weekend with news that the US Mint released an “important update” stating “The global silver shortage has driven demand for many of our bullion and numismatic products to record heights” and “As the demand for silver remains greater than the supply, the reality is such that not everyone will be able to purchase a coin.”. Whilst this focusses on investment demand the Silver Institute also released a report outlining the surging industrial demand for silver, specifically in electronics. We discus https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/silver-demand-explodes-e2-80-93-industrial-and-investment/tabid/88/a/2518/default.aspx
May 30, 2021
Early Days for Precious Metals
Yesterday we shared an excellent report from Crescat Capital about the economic setup in the US particularly around the impacts leading to inflationary pressures and what that means. Today we share their conclusion as it relates to bullion (spoiler alert… its VERY bullish) https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/early-days-for-precious-metals/tabid/88/a/2517/default.aspx
May 27, 2021
The Three Pillars of Inflation
A longer one today but an excellent piece from Crescat Capital on what we might expect to see from here in the US which both portends similar outcomes here in Australia but also will directly affect Australia via the effects on the US regardless. Lots of images today, please check out. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-three-pillars-of-inflation/tabid/88/a/2516/default.aspx
May 26, 2021
Pal says “Time To Add” & Elon sees the green light
Late last week Raoul released a quick update titled “Time to Add” where he reflects on the crypto market after the massive sell off. During extreme market conditions, it helps to look towards experts to keep a level head. Here’s what he had to say - Images here: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/pal-says-e2-80-9ctime-to-add-e2-80-9d-elon-sees-the-green-light/tabid/88/a/2514/default.aspx
May 24, 2021
REPO’s back, but not as you remember it
The battle between inflation and maintaining easy monetary policy in the US is starting to show tangible signs of blowing up. As we discussed last week, the Fed are choosing a lower inflation metric to justify their easy money policy, and even the official CPI is understated having long ago removed house prices which are on fire in the US. On the other side last week saw the Fed have to drain over $350b in one day on the REPO market as banks drown in all their printed money, nearly $300b of which they ADDED on that same day….
May 24, 2021
GOLD SILVER RATIO – COINSPOT BUNDLE LAUNCH
The Gold Silver Ratio is one of the key metrics studied by precious metals investors, and for good reason. This ratio of the gold price to the silver price has a wonderful track record of flagging not just the obvious relative price of each metal but also shares a strong correlation with the general precious metals markets rallying or turning bearish, i.e. a dropping GSR tends to see both metals rallying and vice versa but silver goes harder on the drop. Link to charts and images. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-silver-ratio-e2-80-93-coinspot-bundle-launch/tabid/88/a/2512/default.aspx?mc_cid=155f91a563&mc_eid=60df6d1177
May 21, 2021
Unless you live in a cave you might have heard of a bit of ‘bearish’ action in crypto markets. Last night BTC crashed to just US$31,000 taking the total correction to just under 50% from the 10 May high of US$59,200. Whilst bouncing strongly back, at US$39,500 now it is still down 33%. Ethereum hit US$2000 overnight, also down over 50% from its 12 May high of $4357. Conversely from 7 May when gold finally broke through US$1800 it has rallied to be now US$1870, barely unchanged in last night’s session after reaching US$1890 overnight amid all the market chaos that also saw US shares in the red again. Indeed the only thing demonstrably in the green last night was the USD after the Fed spooked the market with hints at possibly tapering stimulus. We discuss
May 20, 2021
Will the AUD drop with USD?
As consensus amongst analysts grows on the prospect of a progressively weaker USD and stronger gold price, the elephant in the room for locals is of course the AUD in those pairs. Last night gold rose again hitting US$1874 before settling at a still higher US$1870, up $70 in just the 2 weeks since it broke through US$1800. However in AUD terms last night actually saw gold drop nearly $5 to $2400 as the AUD strengthened against the weaker USD. Today we explore whether a dropping USD necessarily means a strengthening AUD.
May 19, 2021
Bitcoin Correction – What You Musk Know
This week Bitcoins price action has been mostly influenced by Elon Musk's tweets. After tweeting that Tesla will no longer be accepting BTC as payment, the price dived and has continued to gradually retreat from last weeks highs. Despite tweeting yesterday clarifying that Tesla has not sold any of its BTC, the price is still down this morning – possibly presenting a perfect entry/top-up opportunity for investors. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-correction-e2-80-93-what-you-musk-know/tabid/88/a/2509/default.aspx?mc_cid=e7551430f0&mc_eid=UNIQID
May 17, 2021
“We have been warned” – When the Fed Loses Control
You’re spending your life working hard to save for the future and it ALL comes down to where you invest those savings as to what happens from here. You’ve got the GFC still clear in your memory, have just experienced the deepest but shortest recession along with a pandemic and now have an unprecedented economic environment based on central bank and government fiscal stimulus against the biggest debt pile ever. It’s a lot to get your head around. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of London’s Telegraph newspaper outlines this ‘predicament’ and why the Fed may well lose control.
May 16, 2021
Gold & Silver Charts of Truth
Today we look at a number of charts painting a clearer and clearer picture of a very bullish construct for gold and silver prices going forward. All images: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-silver-charts-of-truth/tabid/88/a/2507/default.aspx
May 14, 2021
4.2% US CPI – What it Means for Gold
Amid all the speculation around inflation, last night the rubber hit the road with the release of the latest official US CPI figures. In the context of the US Fed seeking an ‘average’ sustainable 2% inflation rate, the CPI print came in at a blistering hot 4.2% sending shockwaves through markets. We look at this in the context of gold’s decline since last August to the bottom in March and where to from here. All images from today's news - https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/4-2-us-cpi-e2-80-93-what-it-means-for-gold/tabid/88/a/2506/default.aspx
May 13, 2021
Why this is different to post GFC – “This money will catch fire”
The warning drums of the implications of this unprecedented monetary stimulus experiment are growing louder and louder. Today we share an article citing concerns from both the BIS and the US’s own Centre for Financial Stability and importantly too, debunking the ‘we didn’t get inflation after GFC QE’ sceptics. No images today :)
May 12, 2021
Big Week For Gold, Big Miss for US
Somewhat quietly, last week was potentially very instructive for the price of gold going forward from here. This move was punctuated by the abysmal US non farm payrolls Friday night and what that really maybe means. But first let’s acknowledge and celebrate gold’s strongest week in over half a year, convincingly smashing back above US$1800 to $1840, itself a 3 month high. Technically too, decisively moving past the support of the so called ‘double bottom’ through the $1700 resistance line has given analysts a lot of confidence that the 7 month fall from August last year is over. We discuss. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/big-week-for-gold-big-miss-for-us/tabid/88/a/2503/default.aspx
May 9, 2021
US Twin Deficit Hits 25% of GDP!
The following charts from Crescat paint a salient reminder of the trap the US Fed find themselves in. Real inflation is coming but deficit spending is at an all time high and can’t handle higher rates. We share the recent ‘coal face’ data and the extraordinary ‘twin deficit’ picture before the Fed. Link to all images today: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/us-twin-deficit-hits-25-of-gdp-/tabid/88/a/2502/default.aspx
May 7, 2021
BTC and ETH – New Age Gold and Silver?
Ethereum is often referred to as the silver to bitcoins gold. Traditionally this is because it has a smaller market cap in comparison to Bitcoin. Let’s investigate how valid this comparison is.
May 4, 2021
Ethereum On A Tear
Over the long weekend, Ethereum continued to print new all-time highs, topping out this morning at USD 3,324 or roughly $4,300 Aussie. The increase to these levels means Ethereum has quadrupled so far in 2021 – with fundamentals and technical indicators showing no slows to the second-largest crypto's meteoric rise.
May 4, 2021
WGC - Gold Demand Trends Q1 2021
The World Gold Council have just released their quarterly update on gold demand and supply and we summarise with key excerpts. For all images please visit: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/wgc-gold-demand-trends-q1-2021/tabid/88/a/2498/default.aspx
April 30, 2021
Shares or Bonds or Gold?
Last night the Fed confirmed they have no intention of lifting the monetary stimulus pedal from the metal, dismissing rising inflation as purely ‘transitory’. And so printers will continue to go brrrr and near free money available to go and inflate the debt bubble further to buy over inflated financial assets and houses. Not surprisingly then, the USD sank further and bonds, gold, bitcoin and shares were all up. Yes that’s right, both the safe havens of bonds, gold and bitcoin were up together with shares. The historic lack of correlation between these classes is for now gone. So which is right?
April 29, 2021
Gold Price Predictor Bullish
There are many price prediction models for gold however few could boast the historical performance achieved by the guys at GoldMoney Insights. Their gold price framework draws from 3 main drivers; central bank policy, changes in central bank inventories and longer dated energy prices. We step through each and the bullish setup before us.
April 27, 2021
How much gold does China really have & why
Whilst western demand for gold is subdued, demand in the east is booming. We share the latest Swiss export figures which speak volumes. We also share an excellent analysis of just how much gold China really have. Spoiler alert… its MUCH more than the US…
April 22, 2021
Platinum – New rules may see it do a ‘palladium’
It was another strong night for precious metals last night as the dip having past narrative grows. Whilst silver was again the star of the night (up over 2.5%), platinum was very close behind as it saw further strengthening. Whilst gold has trended down since last August to find a low at the beginning of this month, platinum having had a small correction in August, has been strong since, up nearly 50% since September. We revisit the 460% rise in palladium in the context of an excellent report from the World Platinum Investment Council illustrating why there is still great potential for platinum to follow suit.
April 22, 2021
Crypto’s Brutal Weekend
On Sunday we saw Bitcoin plunge 15% within a matter of hours, dragging the rest of the market down with it. Despite this action, long term fundamentals remain as strong as ever. Let's dive into why the dip occurred and why now may be the perfect time to enter/top-up.
April 20, 2021
Gold Rallies on China Opening the Gates
China has long been the world’s biggest consumer of gold, ahead of India since 2013. Whilst also the world’s largest producer, China is still the world’s largest importer. However as a communist regime, the amount of gold allowed to enter the country is, as with most things, controlled by the Beijing. Reuters just reported they are reopening quotas with a massive 150 tonne worth over $11b set to be imported right from the gun. We discuss.
April 19, 2021
Crypto Volatility Picks Back Up – ETH All-Time High, BTC Over 60k US
After what is a prolonged period of price stability (at least in the crypto world), we saw Bitcoin break 60k (USD) and Ether set a new all-time high before both drew back down over the weekend. Let's delve into what's going on in the space and what is driving the latest price movements.
April 6, 2021
Biden’s Inflation Plan ‘not tinkering around edges’
Both gold and silver surged last night with gold up $45 (2%) and silver up 86c (2.7%). Ostensibly this was driven on inflation trades on the back of Biden introducing his $2.25 trillion “American Jobs Plan,” infrastructure stimulus package. However it can’t be ignored that we have now passed the March delivery on COMEX futures when it is ‘convenient’ for those massive bullion bank short positions to have a nice low price….cough, cough
April 1, 2021
Platinum’s Fundamentals Remain Strong
After a major breakout early in March, Platinum has pulled back from psychological resistance at US$1,200 in a healthy consolidating move. The white metal has continued to trade above US$1,160 over the last week reflecting strong support even after a major breakout. We discuss. Images for charts visible here: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/platinum-e2-80-99s-fundamentals-remain-strong-/tabid/88/a/2479/default.aspx
March 30, 2021
THETA Up 18000% In The Last Year
THETA, the native token of the Theta Network (a sharing economy video delivery network) has been going ballistic this year. Since the beginning of the year, it has increased almost 6-fold. From a year ago, THETA is up a staggering 18,000%. The question is how? Let’s dive into why the market is so excited about THETA… No images today.
March 29, 2021
“The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem”
As we sit here amongst the highest global debt pile in history there as yet appears no solution in sight. We often remind readers there are just 3 ways to deal with such a pile of debt… 1. Pay it off with increased economic growth and taxes, 2. Inflate it away with increased inflation, or 3. Default. The last time we were here was 1946. We compare and discuss why this time if different. Today's image. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-9cthe-dollar-is-our-currency-but-it-e2-80-99s-your-problem-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2477/default.aspx
March 29, 2021
Ray Dalio Warns of Increased Debt Monetisation
Speaking to Bloomberg recently, Ray Dalio (head of the world’s largest hedge fund) argued that we have entered the later part of the long-term debt cycle. We share his thoughts and the latest insights into how much gold Bridgewater owns. No images today.
March 26, 2021
The Downside of Globalisation
Globalisation has been a key economic trend of the last few decades. Never before has the world been so interconnected economically and as COVD painfully revealed, nor have supply chains of essential services been so reliant on off shore suppliers and international freight lines. Such interdependence means a shock or break anywhere in the world can have ramifications across the globe. We discuss the latest events and their ramifications.
March 25, 2021
1 Year Since the Crash – Silver Lining
Incredibly it is already 1 year ago that sharemarkets bottomed in the COVID crash. Amid all the unprecedented statistics of GDP plummeting and job losses, few would have predicted one of the fastest and strongest recoveries in share prices since – but that’s what has happened. We delve deeper and look at gold and particularly silver from here.
March 24, 2021
NFT’s - Crypto’s Latest Trend
NFTs or non-fungible tokens are shaking up the art world. So much so that one piece of crypto art recently auctioned for more than $69 million. We explore what non-fungible tokens are, and why they're disrupting the future. No images today.
March 23, 2021
No Way Out
We share 2 charts painting a picture of the battle between a market inflated by easy, cheap money versus reality and the looming inflation that appears an inevitable outcome of that same easy money. The Fed is stuck in the middle and there appears no easy way out. Today's images https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/no-way-out/tabid/88/a/2472/default.aspx
March 22, 2021
Silver Production Yields Tumble
This week was notable for the Fed committing to continue printing USD hand over fist and keeping rates at zero to promote borrowing hand over fist. At home the RBA is doing the same. It is therefore a very real stark contrast to look at the new supply of a real monetary asset in comparison. Today we look at silver mine production as the antithesis of fiat money supply. Images for today's news https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/silver-production-yields-tumble/tabid/88/a/2471/default.aspx
March 19, 2021
Fed Keeps Pedal to Metal
As discussed yesterday, last night we saw the much anticipated March meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the first coinciding with the anniversary of the COVID crisis that saw them unleash unprecedented easy monetary policy and the first since yields in US Treasuries started rising materially. As the Bloomberg headlines says this morning “Powell Holds Dovish Line as Fed Signals Zero Rates Through 2023”, the question on everyone’s lips of whether they would be dovish or hawkish was firmly answered in the dovish, or more easy monetary policy, affirmative. We discuss. Link to full article. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/fed-keeps-pedal-to-metal/tabid/88/a/2469/default.aspx
March 18, 2021
Listen to the Market
The market is nervously awaiting the outcome of tomorrow’s US Fed meeting. Will they be dovish (easing) or hawkish (tightening)? Will their view of the economy be bullish or remain cautious. Today we discuss that it likely doesn’t necessarily matter. We look at market psychology and zoom out to look at long term cycles and where we are right now. Link to all images https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/listen-to-the-market/tabid/88/a/2468/default.aspx
March 17, 2021
Bitcoin Hits All-Time High of $79,400
Bitcoin hit a fresh all-time high over the weekend, almost doubling its price so far in 2021. It took a few attempts to break the psychological 60k USD barrier, but when it did breach it, it did so in spectacular fashion. Link to images: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-hits-all-time-high-of-2479-400/tabid/88/a/2467/default.aspx
March 16, 2021
Why Debt Will Bring More Frequent Crashes
We are arguably in the midst of one of the most artificially constructed economies in modern history. Central banks out of hubris, and governments out of the desire to be re-elected, continue to ‘bail out’ the natural economic cycles arguably ‘needed’ to maintain a sustainably healthy economy. We discuss how this will lead to more frequent crises, shorter economic cycles and abrupt recessions. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/why-debt-will-bring-more-frequent-crashes/tabid/88/a/2466/default.aspx
March 15, 2021
‘In Gold We Trust’ Preview – Institutional Impact & GSR
This is our final preview of the upcoming ‘In Gold We Trust’ report by Incrementum. The report is arguably the pre-eminent annual report on gold and silver, read by over 2m people in 2020 and due out in May 2021. Today we look at the relative size of precious metals markets against the institutional funds, what that means and a special look at silver. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-98in-gold-we-trust-e2-80-99-preview-e2-80-93-institutional-impact-gsr/tabid/88/a/2465/default.aspx
March 12, 2021
‘In Gold We Trust’ Preview – Inflation or Stagflation?
This is our third preview of the upcoming ‘In Gold We Trust’ report by Incrementum . The report is arguably the pre-eminent annual report on gold and silver, read by over 2m people in 2020. On Monday we gave the context of this epic setup for precious metals, yesterday talked to gold’s performance over time and particularly against US shares, and today we look specifically at the inflation genie and its evil brother stagflation. Images and charts. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-98in-gold-we-trust-e2-80-99-preview-e2-80-93-inflation-or-stagflation-/tabid/88/a/2464/default.aspx
March 10, 2021
‘In Gold We Trust’ Preview – Gold v Shares
This is our second preview of the upcoming ‘In Gold We Trust’ report by Incrementum . The report is arguably the pre-eminent annual report on gold and silver, read by over 2m people in 2020. On Monday we gave the context of this epic setup for precious metals and today we look specifically at gold and how it has performed and why. Link to full article and images https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-98in-gold-we-trust-e2-80-99-preview-e2-80-93-gold-v-shares/tabid/88/a/2463/default.aspx
March 10, 2021
Why Ethereum Can Continue To Outperform Bitcoin
Ethereum has a new upgrade on the way. The proposed EIP 1559 Upgrade, now called the London Fork, will both lower GAS fees and increase the scarcity of ETH which could lead to a higher price. Let's look at the details… Link to image. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/why-ethereum-can-continue-to-outperform-bitcoin/tabid/88/a/2462/default.aspx
March 9, 2021
‘In Gold We Trust’ Preview – Printers go brrrr
The ‘In Gold We Trust’ by Incrementum report is arguably the pre-eminent annual report on gold and silver, read by over 2m people in 2020. Whilst we are still over 2 months away from the release they have given us a teaser with a chart pack. Lets start to unpack this…. Link to article and images (charts) https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-98in-gold-we-trust-e2-80-99-preview-e2-80-93-printers-go-brrrr/tabid/88/a/2461/default.aspx
March 8, 2021
Cardano Up 477% This Year. What’s All The Hype About?
Cardano Up 477% This Year. What’s All The Hype About? A week ago, we saw a new cryptocurrency claim the number 3 largest crypto by market cap. This is on the back of an incredible price gain of 625% since the start of the year. So what’s the hype? Let’s jump in… No images today.
March 4, 2021
Is Twist 3.0 a precursor to YCC for the Fed?
Yesterday we talked about the RBA’s yield curve control program, noting it was one of only a few central banks in the world implementing this strategy. All eyes are now on the Fed as they openly contemplate implementing it in the US as they see longer term bond yields rising to very uncomfortable levels. Last night on Wall St was yet another reminder of how unstable things are in the face of this. We discuss the implications and why it differs to QE. No images today.
March 3, 2021
RBA ‘doubles down’ to stem the flow
Yesterday the RBA kept things unchanged, maintaining both the cash rate at 0.1% and its $200 billion QE program until it sees sustainable and strong wage growth together with low unemployment. However just the day before the meeting they had to double down on QE to stem the sell off in 10 year bonds. We discuss.
March 3, 2021
This Is What Bitcoin Does
Wow… what a week for crypto. Last Monday we say the largest single day pullback in Bitcoin’s already volatile history. Bitcoin was down 24% in the seven days through Sunday. It's also the worst weekly performance since March 2020. Prices have declined on six of the past seven days. Today's images https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/this-is-what-bitcoin-does/tabid/88/a/2457/default.aspx
March 1, 2021
The Fed Is Trapped – “the beginning of a secular bull market for precious metals”
The Fed Is Trapped – “the beginning of a secular bull market for precious metals” Crescat Capital have just released their February research letter and it’s a cracker. Below is the author’s Tweeted summary from last week to put this current turn in the market succinctly into perspective and why they think gold and silver are about to enter a new secular bull market. View all today's images. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-fed-is-trapped-e2-80-93-e2-80-9cthe-beginning-of-a-secular-bull-market-for-precious-metals-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2456/default.aspx
March 1, 2021
One Year On – COVID Responses Come Home to Roost
One year ago we had the first big financial market sell off on the back of COVID hitting ‘the west’ and the realization this thing was big. Last night saw the worst equities & bonds rout since March. 113m cases, 2.5m deaths and much of the world in lock down at various times and we finally have a vaccine and ‘hope’ creeping back into the market, winding up the spring, albeit arguably prematurely. But could that ‘sprung coil’ be the undoing? Link to all the images and charts. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/one-year-on-e2-80-93-covid-responses-come-home-to-roost/tabid/88/a/2455/default.aspx
February 26, 2021
AUD kisses 80c – What comes next?
AUD kisses 80c – What comes next? Last night saw a rebound on Wall Street despite falls on opening after the Fed doubled down on its dovish jawboning. That saw a reprieve in bond yields, shares up, gold down and further strengthening in silver and platinum on the reflation trade. It also of course saw the USD down and the AUD firming to kiss 80c. We discuss the implications. All of today's images https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/aud-kisses-80c-e2-80-93-what-comes-next-/tabid/88/a/2454/default.aspx
February 25, 2021
Dalio’s 6pt “Bubble Indicator” at Extreme
Another day another Wall St heavyweight warning of the ‘everything bubble’ looking extreme. The head of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, shared his ‘bubble indicator’ yesterday, giving an insight into how Bridgewater assess this current extreme situation. All the charts... click through to view. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/dalio-e2-80-99s-6pt-e2-80-9cbubble-indicator-e2-80-9d-at-extreme/tabid/88/a/2453/default.aspx
February 23, 2021
Why Rising Rates are the Pin for this Bubble
Why Rising Rates are the Pin for this Bubble In a bubble looking for a pin, maybe the biggest threat (pin) developing is the rise in yields or interest rates as we discussed in part on Friday. We share and discuss a typically concise and easy to understand explanation from Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice on the troubles ahead. No images today... Enjoy the cast!
February 21, 2021
Taper Tantrum or Volmageddon Ahead?
The ‘everything bubble’ is starting to look increasingly shakey. Last night, literally everything except platinum, which seems bullet proof at present, was sold off… everything. Even the Bitcoin rocket briefly levelled out but admittedly Ethereum surged again to new highs. Whether cause or effect, that of course included US Treasuries which saw 10yr yields rise above 1.3% and into territory that is becoming scary for this bubble. We discuss the implications. Click to view image within news. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Portals/0/newsfeed/Feb%202021/19/1_%20bbg%20canary.jpg
February 18, 2021
The Great London Silver Squeeze
The last couple of weeks have been extraordinary for silver, starting with the #silversqueeze movement which saw unprecedented sales of both physical silver and silver ETF shares and the accompanying massive spike of silver being delivered to the vaults backing these shares. Today we talk to the accompanying squeeze in supply and a stark warning from the world’s biggest silver ETF. It’s a must read for silver investors or those considering it. Image to graph referenced https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Portals/0/newsfeed/Feb%202021/17/1_%20silver%20out.jpg
February 17, 2021
Bitcoin Gearing Up
The crypto market went through a “shake out” event yesterday, dropping 7% from its new record high. Despite this rapid fall, institutions seem confident about the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects.
February 15, 2021
Another Wall St Record v Gold
Another day, another record. For the first time in history the US sharemarket is valued, or more accurately*, priced, at twice the US economy measured by GDP. * Remember price is what you pay, value is what you get. Don’t get the 2 confused.
February 14, 2021
Junk Bonds Record & Gold Coiled Spring
Gold rose last night despite weaker than expected inflation data out of the US which saw the USD continue its slide and bond yields dip even further as expectations of even more monetary stimulus were essentially locked in. Bonds yields dropped but the incredible news is the extent to which the junkiest of junk has reached new records. What does this portend?
February 11, 2021
Tesla Buys $1.5b Bitcoin – Why?
Bitcoin’s price exploded last night and took most other crypto’s with it. Almost hitting US$44,000 or AU$57,000 earlier this morning, the price is sticking near that spike, still up 13% from yesterday. The reason was simple, the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, just reported that Tesla has bought $1.5 billion of Bitcoin with its cash reserves. Why? We share an excellent value proposition for Bitcoin by another Wall St legend.
February 9, 2021
Silver Smashes Record – GSR Reverting
Last week was one many will never forget for silver. We now have full visibility of the extent of the record inflows into ETF’s, COMEX and mutual funds and not only was it the highest on record, an eye watering 68.3 million oz, it was the highest by a margin of nearly 50%. In addition, there are no end of stories about shortages for physical silver, particularly in the US. (we still have plenty of stock of most core items… for now.) We compare to gold and revisit the tantalising GSR setup.
February 8, 2021
Precious Metals 2021 Price Forecasts from the master
The CEO of Metals Daily, Ross Norman has an unparalleled track record of winning or near winning the annual LBMA price forecasting survey, including winning it for both gold and silver last year. So what does he see for 2021? Read on…
February 5, 2021
Platinum Supplies ‘Exhausted’
OK, that might be a little click bait-ish… But platinum demand is increasing along with its value and it has seen cases of exhaust system catalytic converter theft booming across the US. For graphs and pictures https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/platinum-supplies-e2-80-98exhausted-e2-80-99-/tabid/88/a/2439/default.aspx
February 3, 2021
The Silver Short Squeeze – What we Learned
On Monday we wrote about the WallStreetBets (WSB) reddit group orchestrating a short squeeze on the silver market. We discussed at that time the various reasons and sheer scale of the short positions in the silver market and questioned the ability of WSB to move such a big market compared to say GameStop (GME). With hindsight now, the squeeze did indeed see prices rise significantly and now retrace over half of that gained, still up around 4% from when news broke. This has many asking ‘where to from here?’.
February 3, 2021
WGC 2020 World Gold Demand Trends
It's that time of year when we get the World Gold Council release their Full Year Gold Demand Trends report, this time for that year we will never forget, 2020. As it was in so many ways, the year was one of contradictions in the gold market as well. In the year we saw a new all time high price, we also saw weaker than average demand despite record demand in ETF’s over the full year.
February 2, 2021
The #ShortSilverSqueeze storm
Short news today as it’s all hands on deck here. The weekend saw unprecedented (yep the 2020 word de jour is back in 21) silver demand with both Ainslie web orders and Silver Standard (AGS) sales on CoinSpot and Bamboo literally through the roof. We discuss.
February 1, 2021
Silver Surges on WallStreetBets ‘GameStop’ Call
Silver surged by over 5% last night helped, it seems, in no small part by the now infamous WSB or WallStreetBets reddit group that saw the likes of GameStop shares surge by 1700% in days. Trade in our Silver Standard (AGS) silver backed tokens last night on CoinSpot was huge. So what is WSB about?
January 29, 2021
“Wile E. Coyote” Moment is Close
Maybe one of the best visual analogies you will see around current financial markets came via Raoul Pal recently writing for GMI’s Macro Insiders talking to Road Runner’s infamous coyote running off the cliff, legs still spinning…
January 28, 2021
Ethereum Gets Volatile
The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation has been on a tear in 2021, almost doubling its price since the 1st of January. We discuss what is driving this and where it might go.
January 27, 2021
Record Silver Inflows v Smart Money Equities Exit
Last week saw an 8 year record high inflow of silver into ETF’s and the like. At the same time insiders are bailing out whilst their companies’ share buybacks surge again. We discuss the recurring phenomena of smart money bailing to mums and dads before a crash.
January 25, 2021
“Perfect Storm” For Gold – Real Interest Rates
Maybe one of the biggest questions for 2021 is that of inflation. Today we share just a couple of charts that paint a very clear picture of rates and inflation expectations and gold’s historic performance mapped against that.
January 22, 2021
Gold, Silver & Stock to Flow
Yesterday’s article raised the financial concept again of Stock to Flow but dealt mainly with how it applies to Bitcoin. Today we go back and look more fully at stock to flow as it applies to gold and silver courtesy of an article penned by the infamous annual In Gold We Trust report from 2014. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-silver-stock-to-flow/tabid/88/a/2430/default.aspx
January 21, 2021
The Great Financial Divergence
We are currently witnessing a financial fundamentals divergence of an order never before seen. In one corner we now have both fiscal and central bank doves printing currency at unprecedented rates. On the other we have finite, low supply of monetary assets in precious metals and Bitcoin. We discuss and share why predictions of $115,000 BTC by August could be accurate. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/products/silver-bullion/1kg-silver-coin-2021-kookaburra-perth-mint/tabid/85/cat/2/id/240/default.aspx
January 20, 2021
Buying The Dip?
Recently Bitcoin experienced a much-expected pull back. Bitcoin, over its short history, has established a trademark “dip” of 20-30% during bull markets. This price usually precedes further extraordinary gains… will it happen again?
January 18, 2021
Silver Use in Vehicles Set to Surge
The Silver Institute recently released a report on the burgeoning use of silver in vehicles and particularly electric vehicles (EV’s). From the report: “While highly variable across different vehicle types and markets, our research suggests a range of 0.5 to 0.9 ounces (15-28 grams) is consumed in one internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, with higher loadings estimated for hybrid and then electric cars. Even so this may sound extremely modest, but it is worth noting that in 2021 global light vehicle (LV) production is expected to be around 85m units (source: LMC Automotive). (While this report focuses on LVs, it is important to acknowledge the use of silver components in both motorcycles and heavy duty vehicles, although in each segment silver loadings will be far lower than in LVs.) This in turn suggests that silver auto demand this year will be in the region of 61Moz (1,900t). To offer some perspective, this compares with the forecast 98Moz (3,000t) of silver that Metals Focus expects to be consumed in the photovoltaic industry in 2021”
January 17, 2021
Biden’s $2T & “the most important event of your investing lives”
Markets are aflutter with the reports of a $2 trillion stimulus package to be announced tonight (US time, this morning ours) by Biden. We unpack what this means and share the sage advice of an 82 year investment legend who has seen a bubble to two… https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/biden-e2-80-99s-242t--e2-80-9cthe-most-important-event-of-your-investing-lives-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2426/default.aspx
January 15, 2021
The Better Alternative to Gold ETF’s – The new Gold Standard
As the World Gold Council release their latest update on global gold ETF holdings confirming 2020 saw record inflows and all time high holdings we discuss what we see as the better alternative for those looking for an easy, secure way to own gold and silver. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-better-alternative-to-gold-etf-e2-80-99s-e2-80-93-the-new-gold-standard/tabid/88/a/2425/default.aspx
January 14, 2021
The Great Rotation – Silver to Boom
One of the more successful fund managers around is thumping the table about silver right now. We share their insightful and historically accurate predictions for why silver and gold should boom from here. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-great-rotation-e2-80-93-silver-to-boom/tabid/88/a/2424/default.aspx
January 13, 2021
Bitcoin – Did We Just See THE Dip?
We discuss the spectacular gains over the holiday period and yesterday’s correction that, whilst big in ‘normal’ terms, wasn’t what many were hoping for to buy up more. What is different this time to 2017 and where to from here? https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-e2-80-93-did-we-just-see-the-dip-/tabid/88/a/2423/default.aspx
January 12, 2021
2020 Wrap and 2021 Forecast
Let us join the chorus of “what a year!”. However, in a year of personal hardship, there has been some great gains for investors in precious metals and crytpocurrencies and the response by governments and central banks around the world has set us up for a very bullish outlook for both. We reflect and look ahead. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/2020-wrap-and-2021-forecast/tabid/88/a/2420/default.aspx
December 23, 2020
Bitcoin’s Santa Rally
Throughout its monster weekly rally, bitcoin's price set new record highs in four of the past five days, reaching the current record high of US $24,273. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-e2-80-99s-santa-rally/tabid/88/a/2419/default.aspx
December 21, 2020
Dr Copper Signals Gold Rally
We discuss how the copper to gold ratio and deficit to GDP are both signalling a further rally as gold again bounces off its 50 week moving average maintaining the bull market run that started in 2019. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/dr-copper-signals-gold-rally/tabid/88/a/2418/default.aspx
December 21, 2020
End of the Road – Steins Law
Today we think is a Must Read. Gold and silver had another solid night last night, up US$21 (1.1%) and US$0.68 (2.7%) respectively as Bitcoin smashed through $23K and the USD fell to an 80 handle for the first time since April 2018. We look at the journey for both since then and why gold presents such a clear each way bet for what looks like a looming proverbial ‘end of the road’ for this well kicked ‘can’… https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/end-of-the-road-e2-80-93-steins-law/tabid/88/a/2417/default.aspx
December 18, 2020
Inflation – the “BIG theme for 2021”
As we write this Bitcoin has just smashed through the all-time high, up over 10% and through US$21K as well. Silver jumped 3.2% overnight, up over $1 and gold firmed as well. What do all these have in common? They are hard assets that will thrive in a world of central bank and government currency debasing stimulus and the inevitable inflation to follow. Today we look at last night’s Fed meeting and a Fed research report that says they are looking at the wrong data for inflation and that it is coming fast. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/inflation-e2-80-93-the-e2-80-9cbig-theme-for-2021-e2-80-9d-09/tabid/88/a/2416/default.aspx
December 17, 2020
What is Worrying Wall Street?
Deutsche Bank released their latest survey of fund managers with what was their biggest response yet, some 984 respondents. Despite the ‘everything’s awesome’ euphoria in markets today (another strong night on Wall St last night), COVID-19 stands as the biggest risk to fund managers, the theme taking out the top 3 positions of the survey, and the next 4 are immensely bullish for gold and silver as well. We discuss. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/what-is-worrying-wall-street-/tabid/88/a/2415/default.aspx
December 16, 2020
Even More Billionaires Looking At Bitcoin
Bitcoin is coming to the end of one of the biggest years in its short history. The bitcoin price has surged through 2020, reclaiming its 2017 all-time highs after finding support from Wall Street and some of the world's biggest investors. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/even-more-billionaires-looking-at-bitcoin/tabid/88/a/2414/default.aspx
December 14, 2020
Rickards on why Gold is Ready to Rumble
Jim Rickards’ latest outlook for gold looks at the reasons for the recent correction and also why and where he thinks it will go from here (spoiler alert, much higher). We know readers love him, so we summarise for a quick take and provide it in full too. Full article: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/rickards-on-why-gold-is-ready-to-rumble/tabid/88/a/2413/default.aspx
December 13, 2020
AUD surges as ECB destroys the bond market
Today we discuss the rising AUD, what is driving it, the overnight increase and extension of stimulus from the ECB and the dangerous new ‘Japanifcation’ territory that takes Euro bonds.
December 11, 2020
Debunking ‘Bad is Good’ as an investment strategy
We have presented warning after warning of the risk of a major correction or crash in sharemarkets at near all time record valuations amid an economic environment that in no way supports that. ‘Bad is good’ via stimulus fuelled markets is sadly a reality. However the complacency surrounding this set up is borne not just of a belief the Fed and other central banks will, at best, continue to fuel and, at worst, come to the rescue, but also of a lack of appreciation of the contagion such a sharemarket crash could present.
December 9, 2020
Where do I put my money? – Gold Bull Market Still Intact
This would have to be one of the most common questions investors have asked this last year. Shares are at record high valuations despite a recession, bonds are all sky high and for the same reason bonds aren’t yielding, you can’t get any interest on your money in a bank either. We look at where gold and silver sit in this market and how they appear to be one of the few undervalued assets to buy.
December 8, 2020
The Path of Least Resistance for Bitcoin
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $27,111 last week. Surging interest in the digital token brought its year-to-date gain to 177%. The last record was set in December 2017 when its price reached $27,000. Having slightly pulled back in the last few days, what does the future hold for bitcoin?
December 7, 2020
Platinum – Bullish Investment Setup
Often the forgotten precious metal, the investment set up for platinum is one that is deserving of more attention. The latest quarterly report from the World Platinum Investment Council outlines this bullish setup. We first step back and look what has happened in platinum, its PGM brother palladium and gold since 2013 and then summarise the bullish setup evident from the latest WPIC report.
December 3, 2020
100% to Lose Money – Our Special K Setup
This recession, and the journey out of it, is increasingly being referred to as a K shape as many acknowledge the V just isn’t happening for many. The K is also playing out in investors expectations as well. Normally shares and precious metals tend to be uncorrelated and indeed often negatively correlated. Last night again saw both shares and precious metals surge together though. We discuss why.
December 2, 2020
Bitcoin – A Currency AND Asset
Bitcoin today must appear as something of a dilemma to the more cautious investor. Out of nowhere, it has exploded onto the scene, and in a decade has gone from strength to strength. And yet it seems so volatile as to defy any standard of valuation with which investors might feel they better understand it – they’re more often than not left wondering if it’s just a super speculative bubble. Though no doubt it has appeared to be that at times, and especially on the lengthy corrections. However, there is a rational and real trend that underlies these appearances. If we understand these, it will be able to provide a rationale by which the more cautious investor might start gaining some exposure to this asset class. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-e2-80-93-a-currency-and-asset/tabid/88/a/2404/default.aspx
November 30, 2020
The Yellen & Powell Cash Tsunami
Gordon Gecko declared “greed is good” and certainly at the moment blind greed is going well. We look at the sheer quantum of cash to come from ex Fed chair Yellen’s new gig as Treasury Secretary and the stash Trump never got to spend, and current Fed chair Powell’s QE program. We also look at the key difference between this gold correction and that in March. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-yellen-powell-cash-tsunami/tabid/88/a/2403/default.aspx
November 30, 2020
The 2021 Global Financial Experiment
We are in extraordinary times right now. That is not an unusual statement to hear this year but it is now made for very different reasons. In financial terms, the word unprecedented has been oft used but almost exclusively in the negative context. Biggest recession, biggest money printing program, biggest deficits, lowest interest rates, etc have been the norm. However the times have more recently turned to some unprecedented ‘positive’ news – like Dow breaches 30,000, Wall St at all time highs, biggest GDP jump, best November on record, etc. These seem incongruous at best and outright baffling to most. Whilst yes the news is awash with vaccines and smooth US presidential transitions, these are not silver bullets to a much larger problem. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-2021-global-financial-experiment/tabid/88/a/2400/default.aspx
November 26, 2020
“You can’t have your cake and eat it”
News headlines are heralding the new all time high reached in the Dow Jones Industrial Average last night breaching 30,000. Vaccines and a seamless transition to Biden are grabbing the “everything’s awesome” trade with gusto with nary a word around that maybe, just maybe, 30,000 was reached on the back of unprecedented amounts of monetary stimulus. We look at the fundamentals behind the stimulus momentum trade and the challenges and opportunities ahead. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-9cyou-can-e2-80-99t-have-your-cake-and-eat-it-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2399/default.aspx
November 25, 2020
Alt Coin Market – Ready for take-off
There’s no denying that Bitcoin has been the dominant force for the latter part of 2020. Large-cap cryptocurrencies such as ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, and LINK delivered relatively modest gains in October, but have failed to break new highs as trading activity shifted away to Bitcoin. For many months, altcoins have been the key driver of returns for crypto traders. The usual rotation of BTC to Alt-coins looks ready to go with ETH2.0 next week possibly the catalyst. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/alt-coin-market-e2-80-93-ready-for-take-off/tabid/88/a/2398/default.aspx
November 23, 2020
Big Gold Outflows, Big Bitcoin Gains – “Hedging Goldilocks”
As gold has tracked sideways for the last few months Bitcoin has been grabbing attention since it started taking off last month with the weekend seeing it a whisker off taking its December 2017 all-time high of US$20,000, sitting at US$18,500 at the time of writing. Since hitting its all time high of US$2060 in August this year, gold has come off slightly and held strong above $1850 since. But reports from 2 of the biggest banks in the US warn that both may well be the place to be as we change for “uber Goldilocks” to “Hedging Goldilocks”… https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/big-gold-outflows-big-bitcoin-gains-e2-80-93-e2-80-9chedging-goldilocks-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2397/default.aspx
November 23, 2020
Vaccines don’t cure debt
Findings from the IIF (Institute of International Finance) and a warning from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) bring the hope trade off the back of vaccines starkly into contrast as the world sinks under debt. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/vaccines-don-e2-80-99t-cure-debt/tabid/88/a/2396/default.aspx
November 20, 2020
Silver Poised to Surge – And so too Ethereum
Today we talk to the epic setup for the silver market and at the end compare that to its ‘crypto cousin’ Ethereum which too looks poised for great things. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/silver-poised-to-surge-e2-80-93-and-so-too-ethereum/tabid/88/a/2395/default.aspx
November 19, 2020
Smart Money is Taking Cover
Equities markets are often driven more by emotion than fact or fundamentals. 2 nights ago we saw Wall St surge on another positive vaccine announcement and then last night fall back. Nothing much changed so did the market just momentarily pause and look more pragmatically at fundamentals not hope? Only a little… it is now in Extreme Greed mode but the smart money is not buying it. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/smart-money-is-taking-cover/tabid/88/a/2394/default.aspx
November 17, 2020
Bitcoin & Ethereum Foundations Strengthening
As we head into the end of the year, the crypto market cycle has shifted back towards BTC with the favourable macro backdrop. The election's end - and perhaps its reminder of the fragility of political governance - has reinforced the value of Bitcoin. Read full article. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-ethereum-foundations-strengthening/tabid/88/a/2393/default.aspx
November 16, 2020
Indian demand for gold and gold loans
Until China embarked on its massive gold buy up from 2013, India was the world’s biggest consumer of gold. A country of 1.4 billion people who all aspire to gold ownership will always be a big force in the gold market regardless. Today we look further into this and the burgeoning gold loan market. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/indian-demand-for-gold-and-gold-loans/tabid/88/a/2392/default.aspx
November 16, 2020
US Stimulus & Vaccine Delays – Is it too late?
Wall St took a dive last night whilst gold firmed as the market digested the new reality that there will be no fiscal stimulus before January whilst the 2nd COVID wave sweeps the nation and the Pfizer vaccine, if passing all tests, will be unavailable much longer than the euphoria earlier in the week was pricing in. Our AUD dropped which turbo charged gold and silver gains locally. We discuss. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/us-stimulus-vaccine-delays-e2-80-93-is-it-too-late-/tabid/88/a/2391/default.aspx
November 13, 2020
WEF’s “The Great Reset” OK by Senate
“The Great Reset” agenda of the World Economic Forum is one not widely known about and certainly not one getting much cut through in the mainstream in Australia. That changed just a little yesterday when Pauline Hanson put forward a motion in the senate for Australia to actively not pursue this agenda. It was defeated. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/wef-e2-80-99s-e2-80-9cthe-great-reset-e2-80-9d-ok-by-senate/tabid/88/a/2390/default.aspx
November 12, 2020
The Best Investment of The Year
Bitcoin has leapt back into the limelight after taking a backseat to the DeFi craze. Initially, it looked that this was just another intermarket move driven by the reallocation of capital from big winners back to BTC, but something seems different this time and it appears the landscape is shifting beneath our feet. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-best-investment-of-the-year/tabid/88/a/2389/default.aspx
November 11, 2020
Perspective Is Everything
News flash… Everything is awesome! News of Pfizer’s vaccine saw the S&P500, Dow and small cap Russell 2000 all hit all-time highs last night whilst Gold was down around 4.7%, silver just over 6% whilst Bitcoin held strong. Today we zoom back from the soundbite and put this all in to perspective. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/perspective-is-everything/tabid/88/a/2388/default.aspx
November 10, 2020
3 Charts Every Investor Should Heed
Markets were steady at the close on Friday and gold, silver and bitcoin all up. Investors are grappling with what looks like a Biden presidency, Democrat house and Republican senate. Today we look past this immediate ‘noise’ and at some fundamentals that should be a warning to all investors. Full article to read: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/3-charts-every-investor-should-heed-/tabid/88/a/2387/default.aspx
November 9, 2020
Can you afford to stay out?
Maybe one of the safer bets today outside the Cup is the RBA lowering interest rates and commencing Quantitative Easing. This move puts us into territory never before seen in this country. Enjoy today's news.
November 3, 2020
Trump or Biden – Gold the likely winner
You may or may not be aware of a little election taking place tomorrow. The last saw a wild whipsawing of markets including gold. Whilst that was a ‘shock’ win, with the majority now believing Biden will win this time, there is a very real risk of Trump bringing home another shock win. That means the market has likely priced in one scenario when another is very possible. There is also the issue of a protracted legal battle and/or broadscale civil unrest and further social dislocation. This election, maybe more than the last, could see heightened volatility in markets as the news unfolds. We discuss the implications including what each potential administration may mean for gold.
November 2, 2020
Buy the Dip & Buy Real
View charts and article, shop bullion: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/buy-the-dip-buy-real/tabid/88/a/2380/default.aspx Last night was a repeat of what we have seen before when markets panic, volatility spikes, shares crash, margin calls occur and everyone liquidates EVERYTHING. Wall Street fell 3.5% across all indices last night, silver was down 6% (3.5% in AUD), gold 2% (0.6% in AUD) and Bitcoin 3%. The only thing with green was of course the USD as everyone went to cash. That pushed our AUD down to 70.4c and cushioned the bullion blow. Whilst gold, silver and Bitcoin are clearly in secular bull markets, we are reminded that they are called bulls and not caterpillars for a reason… they buck. It was timely therefore to come across a very recent interview with the legendary Kiril Sokoloff, founder of 13D Global Strategy & Research who talks to why gold is his key investment, why buy physical and why dips like last night are expected and should be bough.
October 29, 2020
The World’s Biggest Trade
Last week Raoul Pal of Macro Insider released a deep dive further explaining why he is “irresponsibly long” Bitcoin. Pal, an ex Wall St fund manager and respected voice not only in the Bitcoin space, completed the trade of the decade when he called the bond rally before it started on similar macro grounds. He has more recently been vocal in his rotation from bonds to gold and bitcoin based on this unprecedented macro setup we find ourselves in. In his report he highlights key fundamentals: The slow build Immutability When macro and crypto collide Priceless reserve asset Bitcoin being pristine A yield curve Pal also debunks a lot of the primary criticisms of bitcoin and the technology supporting the crypto movement. Pal has a lot to say about crypto and bitcoin and it’s all well thought out and backed up. Read on to get some insight into why he believes bitcoin to be “The World’s Best Trade”: View article, shop bullion: The World’s Biggest Trade More from Ainslie. . . https://goldsilverstandard.com/ https://ainsliewealth.com.au/
October 27, 2020
IMF & WEF Call For Global Reset - “A New Bretton Woods Moment”
Recently the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, delivered a speech that pricked the ears of those actually listening titled “A New Bretton Woods Moment”. That this was delivered nearly 50 years after Nixon ended the gold peg of the Bretton Woods agreement has not been lost on some. Today we share insights into what happened before Bretton Woods and how that may be instructive on ‘where to from here?’. View article, shop bullion: IMF & WEF Call For Global Reset - “A New Bretton Woods Moment” More from Ainslie. . . https://goldsilverstandard.com/ https://ainsliewealth.com.au/
October 26, 2020
Australia Joins Money Printing Party with a Bang
Today we discuss the reasons for the stubbornly high AUD, why that looks about to change, how the RBA just jumped to second biggest ‘printer’ in the developed world, how they have justified it, and how it hasn’t even really started yet… View article and chart, shop bullion: Australia Joins Money Printing Party with a Bang
October 23, 2020
PayPal & CBDC’s – Listen Carefully
Fiat currency as we know it is under attack. We wrote to the advent of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC’s) recently here including the opportunities but also some of the threats they present. Last night we saw the announcement by the world’s biggest payment provider, PayPal that they will now facilitate cryptocurrency transactions. We discuss the implications of both on precious metals and cryptocurrencies alike. View charts and article, shop bullion: PayPal & CBDC’s – Listen Carefully
October 22, 2020
“Gold, The Simple Math” - Hathaway
John Hathaway needs little introduction to long term gold participants. He is a highly regarded analyst who until this year penned excellent analysis of gold markets for Tocqueville Asset Management. He is now with Sprott Asset Management and recently penned “Gold, The Simple Math”. We share some key excerpts from this excellent summary of the compelling reason to be buying gold right now. View article and charts, shop bullion: “Gold, The Simple Math” - Hathaway
October 22, 2020
Bitcoin: Uncorrelated and Strong
Raoul Pal, the former Goldman Sachs hedge-fund manager who founded Real Vision, and a personal favourite of ours, believes the price of Bitcoin will hit $US1 million in five years. We discuss his and other learned views about where this digital store of value is headed and why.
October 20, 2020
2 Charts That Can’t Be Ignored
Today we simply share 2 charts that tell the very simple and compelling story that is the gold investment case. Cut through all the noise and economic rationalisations amid this pandemic and Blind Freddy should be able to do the math on this. View article and charts, shop bullion: 2 Charts That Can’t Be Ignored
October 16, 2020
Precious Metal & Bitcoin Bulls Just Beginning
Part of the dilemma for many investors right now is ‘where is safe to put my money’. Whilst some may be feeling like gold and silver are ‘getting up there’ after the rally this year, the reality is when measured against the biggest ‘other choice’, they are only just coming off an historical bottom. We present and discuss. View article and charts, shop bullion: Precious Metal & Bitcoin Bulls Just Beginning
October 15, 2020
Solar Demand for Silver Surges
Earlier this week we shared that excellent infographic part of which showed that silver use in photovoltaics accounts for around 10% of total silver demand. Demand and indeed investment in the PV sector is getting stronger on the back of the likes of the EU green targeted stimulus and the growing prospect of Biden winning the presidency and his clearly articulated green energy agenda. Today we look more closely at the huge inflows into the space and what that means for silver. View article and charts, shop bullion: Solar Demand for Silver Surges
October 15, 2020
Another New 2020 Record – Over 1000 Tonne Into ETFs
The World Gold Council have just released their latest update for gold inflows to ETF’s for September which are remarkable in the context of the price falls we have seen over that period but also another new record. We also discuss Gold & Silver Standard as a better alternative to ETFs. View article and charts, shop bullion: Another New 2020 Record – Over 1000 Tonne Into ETFs
October 9, 2020
Australia Doubling Down on Debt
For years Australia has been ranked 1 or 2 in the world’s most indebted households. Conversely our government debt has been one of the lowest. 2020 would mark the year that household debt eased and government debt exploded however changes to lending laws and yet more stimulus for new housing (together with a record deficit funded rescue package) might see both end the year on a ‘high’. View article and charts, shop bullion: Australia Doubling Down on Debt
October 5, 2020
Bitcoin – The Best Macro Asset of 2020
A lot of crypto investors like to think of bitcoin as a bet on higher inflation, or as a futuristic hedge against a worst-case scenario – standing next to gold. View chart and article, shop bullion: Bitcoin – The Best Macro Asset of 2020
October 2, 2020
“Monstrous” Numbers Portend Global Unwinding
View article and charts, shop bullion: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-9cmonstrous-e2-80-9d-numbers-portend-global-unwinding/tabid/88/a/2359/default.aspx Doug Noland has been mapping this credit super-cycle in his weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin for 20 years. When he says the latest data from the US Fed is the “most troubling data I’ve encountered in my 20 years” we feel compelled to share. This very much feels like the death throes of the debt super cycle Dalio wrote of earlier this year.
September 30, 2020
Deflation to Inflation & Gold
The building pressure on governments to unleash fiscal spending in the face of not just the deflationary effects of the pandemic but also of technology, demographics and debt is enormous. Amid all the talk of inflation now, this is missing the seemingly unavoidable deflationary period that precedes, and indeed the reaction to which, causes it. We discuss these forces and where it all leads. View article and charts, shop bullion: Deflation to Inflation & Gold
September 30, 2020
What CBDC’s Mean To Your Wealth
A CBDC is a Central Bank Digital Currency. It is a digital form of fiat currency which the government or central bank has established. The Bank of England, for example, has referred to CBDC’s as a “digital banknote” instead of a psychical banknote. We look at the mechanics and implications of what looks certain to be our future.
September 29, 2020
6 Forces to “Propel” Gold & Silver
News is filtering through that the Fed may have stepped back from the plate and markets got very jittery last week. Today we share the latest excellent insights from Crescat, whose investment insight just saw them get make the top of Bloomberg’s hedge fund monthly performance table for the third straight month and the fourth month this year. i.e. they are worth listing too. They believe we are still in the early days of a secular bull market in gold and silver and this correction is an ideal dip buying opportunity. View charts and article, shop bullion: 6 Forces to “Propel” Gold & Silver
September 28, 2020
Australia’s 2020 Economic Journey in Charts
Today we present and discuss a series of charts from Roy Morgan Research presenting the economic impacts on Australia since the pandemic. First we discuss last night’s market action and why CitiBank believe gold is about to explode higher and such dips as now are buying opportunities. View charts and article, shop bullion: Australia’s 2020 Economic Journey in Charts
September 25, 2020
$1b Fine for JP Morgan Manipulation of Precious Metals
Nearly 2 years after we first reported it here, JP Morgan finally look set to pay for the manipulation of precious metals markets for their benefit with a $1b fine. We discuss and talk to the big drops in gold and silver these last few days. View article, shop bullion: $1b Fine for JP Morgan Manipulation of Precious Metals
September 24, 2020
The Truth Behind “Highest Household Wealth”
In a world where news often comes in small byte headlines one could be deceived into thinking things are better than they are without a little critical thought or at least a deeper dive in to the story. Case in point “US Household Wealth Hits Record High” that we saw yesterday. Talk about a V shaped recovery! But… View article and charts, shop bullion: The Truth Behind “Highest Household Wealth”
September 23, 2020
COVID – Killing Banks, Boosting Bitcoin
As banks struggle in the post-COVID world, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have seen a pandemic-led acceleration of adoption, which experts expect to snowball in size as we continue through the current state of the economy. View article, shop bullion: COVID – Killing Banks, Boosting Bitcoin
September 21, 2020
No Recovery Until 2023
Forecasts are that Australia will not see a recovery in jobs or GDP until 2023, and that relies on a continuation of near zero interest rates and fiscal stimulus. Last night the US Fed projected zero rates and stimulus for a similar period. We discuss the latest research and the unknown road ahead. View article and charts, shop bullion: No Recovery Until 2023
September 17, 2020
Math, Risk and Return of Capital
After this recent Wall St correction the futures markets are telling us the herd are now bullish again with short interest on the NYSE falling sharply. We discuss the risks inherent in this next leg and the math everyone should be doing. View article and charts, shop bullion: Math, Risk and Return of Capital Gold & Silver Standard from Ainslie
September 16, 2020
DeFi – Undoubtedly the Future
Decentralised finance, or DeFi, aims to give users an alternative by removing the need to trust centralised parties and traditional financial institutions by opening its doors to the world. This is achieved by building digital services in an open, permissionless, and decentralised manner. We compare the old and new worlds. View charts and article, shop bullion: DeFi – Undoubtedly the Future
September 14, 2020
“All Time High Fragility” – Handle with Care
Bank of America just spoke to all time high fragility in markets before last week’s sharemarket corrections, particularly the tech heavy NASDAQ. We talk to this and the ‘concentration within the concentration’ that should have investors looking for some financial bubble wrap amid such fragility. View article and charts, shop bullion: “All Time High Fragility” – Handle with Care
September 14, 2020
Insolvency Phase – Now v Great Depression – How This Ends
More heavy losses on Wall Street last night signal we could well be in the terminal throes of the “Hope Phase”. We discuss what follows, how it compares to the last recession of this magnitude, The Great Depression, what happened then and what is likely to happen now. View Charts and article, shop bullion: Insolvency Phase – Now v Great Depression – How This Ends
September 11, 2020
Lost Silver – Why that’s good!
When asked why gold and silver have intrinsic value the answer is ultimately about how rare it is and the fact that it can’t simply be expanded at whim like Fiat currency can, and currently is being expanded. Today we look silver supply, how much is ‘lost’ and why that could be good news. View Article & Charts, Shop Bullion: Lost Silver – Why that’s good!
September 10, 2020
USD to Rise or Fall? The Debate Rages, Gold Wins
Last night saw the US share market fall sharply with the NASDAQ down 6% at one stage before finishing down nearly 5%. The S&P500 was down 3.5% and Dow down 2.8%. In USD gold was down 0.6% and silver 3.5%, only the falling AUD saw that change to +0.3% and -2.2% respectively. Cryptos were clubbed across the board including BTC below $US10,500 and ETH back below US$400 at one stage. And against the whole ‘USD is dead’ crowded trade, it maintained its upward trajectory from its low on Monday. We outline the case for a strong USD and what that means for markets and gold. View article and charts, shop bullion: USD to Rise or Fall? The Debate Rages, Gold Wins
September 4, 2020