Skip to main content
The Ainslie News Podcast

The Ainslie News Podcast

By Ainslie
Daily gold and silver economic news conveniently delivered in audio format. Ainslie Bullion is one of Australia's leading gold & silver bullion dealers, since 1974. With our live pricing, historical price charts, and huge range of gold, silver and platinum. Ainslie produce and sell our own range of gold and silver bullion offering world class products at 'local' prices.
Where to listen
Apple Podcasts Logo

Apple Podcasts

Castbox Logo


Google Podcasts Logo

Google Podcasts

Overcast Logo


Pocket Casts Logo

Pocket Casts

RadioPublic Logo


Spotify Logo


Stitcher Logo


Currently playing episode

Visualising All the World’s Money & Market

The Ainslie News Podcast

Major protests in Belgium against the Rising Cost of Living
Dramatic images of almost a hundred thousand protestors have broken out in Belgium as inflation has now crossed 10% in June. These civil uprisings have been mirrored worldwide this month as supply chains reach breaking point and the purchasing power of government issued fiat currencies continue to weaken.
July 04, 2022
FY22 in Review
We look at the FY22 year for Australia and some of the shocking data out of the broader global economy for the second half. We briefly discuss going forward too.. Read article here
July 01, 2022
BRICS Nations forming USD alternative.
With China, India, Brazil and South Africa wondering if they will be next in line to suffer sanctions, the BRICS nations are forming a viable alternative to the US Dollar for international settlements. Speaking at the BRICS Business Forum on Wednesday, Putin stated “The matter of creating the international reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of our countries is under review.” This is the most formalised movement towards a global environment that functions largely without the US Dollar. Saudi Arabia has been in talks for most of the year to sell Oil denominated in Chinese Yuan, and Nigeria is already making those trades.
June 29, 2022
Earnings Flag, more pain to come.
Another shocker on Wall Street last night with heavy falls across the board. The only thing positive was the USD and some commodities, and gold was pretty much flat but up in AUD terms.  So what happened this time?
June 29, 2022
Will BTC Break Historic On-Chain Rules?
Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin are at all-time lows, signalling potential floor formation. Many are even trading at levels with single-digit percentage points of prior history at similar levels. So, it begs the question, is this the bottom?
June 28, 2022
Powell throws Biden under the Inflation Bus
In a Capitol Hill hearing Powell was asked yesterday: “Would you say that the war in Ukrain is the primary driver of inflation in America?” Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded: “No. Inflation was high before, certainly before the ware in Ukraine broke out.” The President speaking at the White House later revealed that Congress knew that sanctions would lead to higher gas prices.” Fuel costs bleed into every aspect of consumption leading to greater inflation and reduced purchasing power of currencies. The only question is when precious metals will pop in this highly inflationary environment.
June 24, 2022
Is 60/40 dead? The “new investing regime”
With 7 days left for the first half of this year, the S&P500 is posting its second worst H1 in history behind a little crash you may have heard of called the Great Depression. US Treasuries go back to 1788 to see a worse H1. We look at where the traditional ‘60/40 portfolio’ sits and compare to gold…
June 23, 2022
RBA Jawboning & what a recession looks like
Yesterday we heard the RBA chief assure us "I don't see a recession on the horizon”. As we have seen repeatedly since the GFC, central banks have deployed ‘words’ as much as rates and QE in an effort to control markets. Commonly called ‘jawboning’, is that what Mr Lowe is trying on us, is it true, and if not what does a recession mean?
June 22, 2022
“wildly bullish” signal – best since May 2019
There are some analysts that think the only thing you need to look at to know where the price of gold and silver are going is the weekly Commitment of Traders report that presents all the positions of the big players on COMEX futures. It just got “wildly bullish”…
June 21, 2022
BTC Hunting For Max Pain
The Bitcoin market has reeled from a massive deleveraging event this week, falling below the 2017 US$20k ATH. Both on-chain DeFi markets and off-chain entities deleveraged. Exchanges, lenders, and hedge funds were rendered insolvent, illiquid, or liquidated.
June 21, 2022
Same Signal as 70’s and 00’s – Gold Set to Soar
Another night of deep red on Wall Street last night and another night of gold and silver price strength in the face of it. Markets were rocked by the surprise rate hike of 50bps by the Swiss National Bank but more particularly the expected sell off of their mountain of US shares, particularly the ultra vulnerable FAANGs they’ve gone heavy on. The NASDAQ ended the session down 4.1%. But it wasn’t the Swiss alone. More broadly we are seeing a set up mirroring the huge gold rallies of the 70’s and 2000’s.
June 17, 2022
Recession the new ‘Transitory’
The US Fed has a new yarn to spin you. After months and months of trying to convince the market that inflation was just ‘transitory’ despite all the data, Fed Chair Powell was last night, with a straight face, telling us: “There is no sign of a broader slowdown in the economy that I can see.” Meeting market expectations they hiked rates by a still huge 75bps, the biggest hike since 1994. We discuss why shares rallied and what’s ahead…
June 16, 2022
Gold & Silver Prospects in 6 Charts
Its Monday morning so lets keep the words to a minimum and check out some compelling charts for gold and silver and where they sit right now.
June 06, 2022
“Too Soon to Buy the Dip, Unless It’s Commodities”
The reason our mantra is “Balance your wealth in an unbalanced world” is because in such unprecedented times it should be expected that experts can have such divergent theses on ‘what’s next’. On Monday we spoke to the thesis of Raoul Pal and others of recession, disinflation, Fed easing and risk-on. Today we talk to Crescat’s thesis of recession, sustained inflation, sustained rate hikes, and commodities boom.
June 01, 2022
“Buy every commodity you can find” - Rabobank
There are conflicting views amongst experts around where this unprecedented economic setup ends. Much of the market is sitting on its hands unsure as to what to. Ray Dalio last week reminded us that ‘cash is trash’ so where does one invest now?
May 30, 2022
S&P500 Crosses Rubicon – “Investors forewarned”
It's now official. After the NASDAQ long since crossed the rubicon, the world’s biggest equities index, the US S&P500 officially turned to bear market having cross the 20% loss line on Friday night. Having reached this juncture after just 2 of the 10 rate hikes predicted and BEFORE any quantitative tightening even starts… the question on everyone’s lips is how strong will the Fed hold its ‘we will not capitulate to save the financial markets’ stance?
May 23, 2022
Safe Havens Bid Against More Wall St Losses
More red on Wall Street last night on growing concerns about the US economy and its ability to handle higher rates. Whilst ending the session lower the S&P500 again miraculously bounced off the -20% bear market line in the sand without crossing it. However the night was more notable for the surge in both gold and bitcoin against that trend, and likewise bonds bid meaning lower yields in the face of rising rates. We discuss the set up for gold in particular right now.
May 20, 2022
Sri Lanka Crisis & Spiralling Inflation
Sri Lanka is now running out of petrol. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe warns that the nation has no US dollar reserves and they are now planning to sell their national airline. Shortages are far from confined to Sri Lanka with Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, warning MPs on Monday that the Central Bank has warned of ‘apocalyptic’ food price hikes and that the central bank was helpless in fighting food shortages driven by external shocks such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and supply chain issues caused by the zero covid policy in China.
May 19, 2022
Historic Week in Crypto.
The Bitcoin market experienced a week for the history books, with the $40B LUNA/UST project hyper-inflating and collapsing, 80k BTC sold by LFG, and the Tether $1 peg coming under pressure. Let’s review the last week…
May 17, 2022
Aussie Property at the Precipice
Its hard to pick up a paper or read the news without headlines around plummeting auction clearance rates, stalled house sales, predictions of big house price falls, and then late last week we got the ABS stats showing new home and construction finance commitments literally halved from the ‘HomeBuilder’ stimulus February 2021 peak and likewise dwelling approvals down 36% year on year. Futures markets have rates rising over 120% on their current levels and we discuss where that sits historically and practically.
May 16, 2022
Preparing for Impact – PPI Surges
Never a dull night on global markets lately… Last night was again a sea of red. The only green was yet again the US dollar (at near 20 year highs) and big cap crypto (coming off massive falls). The S&P500 rallied a little late to avoid falling into an official bear market (20% off recent highs) by just 2bps and the NASDAQ long left the bear market station down 32% and now its biggest fall since the GFC.
May 13, 2022
7 Super Bullish Charts for Gold and Silver
Less words more charts today as we hit some very interesting junctures in precious metals markets.
May 11, 2022
Wall St Whipsaws - What Next?
Last night continued the biggest sharemarket whipsaw since peak COVD turmoil in mid 2020. After the biggest Fed day surge in 44 years on Wednesday night, last night saw the biggest drop since June 2020 with the NASDAQ down 6% at its worst and 5% at close. The S&P500 was down over 3.5% as well and to complete the reversal of ‘all things’ bonds tanked (yields shot up), the other safe haven of gold also fell back below US$1900, and the USD surged to wipe out yesterday’s gains but saw a much weaker AUD and gold hold steady in AUD terms. So what on earth is going on?
May 06, 2022
RBA raises interest rates for first time in a decade
Philip Lowe, Chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced yesterday that the cash rate target is now 0.35%, with real rates still very negative. This was the first rate rise since November 2010. The time has come to start withdrawing some of the ‘extraordinary monetary support’ that has been injected into the economy since early 2020. They are now forecasting inflation to peak at 6% in 2022 after annualised inflation in the last month came to 5.1%.
May 04, 2022
Where Is BTC’s Floor?
Bitcoin investors are hanging onto the edge of profitability, with short-term price action threatening to put them back into the red. Meanwhile, a constructive confluence of macro indicators is developing into a clearer picture of a potential bear market floor.
May 03, 2022
Negative US GDP & the end of the business cycle
Last night’s shock news of the US falling into recessionary territory with a negative GDP print was a salient reminder of both the precariousness of the world’s biggest economy and the farce that is a sharemarket RALLYING on the news likely because they think it will force a reversal of the Fed’s tightening! Importantly gold rallied (despite an also stronger USD) as it called BS on the shares’ “bad news is good news” hope rally. As we reported yesterday Crescat Capital released their latest monthly research letter late last week and today we look further into it.
April 29, 2022
“profound changes in the global economy” & How to Profit
Crescat Capital released their latest monthly research letter late last week and as usual it provides clear and concise insight into macro markets at present backed up with ‘runs on the board’ through the outperformance of their funds.
April 28, 2022
Juerg Kiener: Gold ‘bargain of the century’ at current spot levels
Speaking on Bloomberg Asia, Founding Partner at Swiss Asia Capital Singapore dropped a number of bombshells in the live interview. In a case of the ‘tail wagging the dog’, outsized silver futures and options leverage outnumber the physical metal more than 100:1. Base metal inventories are quickly running out despite increasing global demand. Finally, of all the metals markets, gold at present spot prices is the bargain of the century, as $5-figure gold will be needed to stabilise global markets in a new currency realignment.
April 27, 2022
Gold Smashing ATH in Japanese Yen
The Yen may be one of the first dominoes to fall as the Japanese fiat currency has nose-dived in terms of gold purchasing power, even since the August 2020 highs. Sri Lanka has defaulted on US$35.5bn of foreign debt as sharp commodity price rises lead to massive social unrest. In Europe, the Netherlands Chief CPI statistician blames high energy prices on ‘Putin’.
April 20, 2022
World Bank & IMF Warn of Stagflation Ahead
Over the last couple of days both the IMF and World Bank have heavily downgraded global economic growth forecasts whilst both acknowledging and, ironically proposing to fuel more inflation with more stimulation. Hello stagflation…
April 20, 2022
Onchain Activity Demonstrates Healthy Recovery for Crypto
The Bitcoin market traded lower this week, coming off an opening high of $47,102, and slipping to a low of $42,183. This market weakness follows a relatively modest price break-out from the multi-month consolidation range that has been established since mid-January.
April 19, 2022
Gold Silver Standard NFTs
The AUS and AGS tokens have come a long way since their inception as an ERC-20 token. The natural evolution of the project was to create a series of gold and silver-backed NFTs. Much like how large bullion minters will produce limited runs of special coins, Gold and Silver Standard NFTs give the underlying precious metals artistic value even rarer than the metal itself – with enhanced visuals and a professional tone.
April 14, 2022
NFTs Are a Big Deal!
No doubt over the last few months we have all heard the acronym NFT. It became the buzzword of the crypto-space, with some believing it was just the flavour of the season in a hype-driven market. But, there's more to it… let's explore.
April 12, 2022
HODLer Dominance Remains in Draw Down
The Bitcoin market pulled back this week after a break-out from the multi-month consolidation range. Prices have thus far struggled to find sustained upside momentum, and there are indications of a modest volume of profit taken by market participants. Let’s dive into the BTC market’s onchain dynamics…
April 11, 2022
Fed Balance Sheet Reduction Incoming
Late last week the FOMC minutes from the previous meeting were made public. In them we found that Fed chairs are targeting a maximum of $95bn in balance sheet reduction per month starting in May. The figure is made up of $60bn in treasuries and $35bn in mortgage-backed securities. The minutes also made it clear that inflation is recognised as a major problem, and rate hikes are likely to be 50 basis points at each meeting as opposed to the standard 25.
April 11, 2022
World Gold Council Q1 Wrap
The World Gold Council just released their figures for both the month of March and also Q1 of 2022. Unsurprisingly given the global geopolitical events and inflation issues before us gold demand was the highest seen in years.
April 08, 2022
Currency Wars: Competition at Work
In 1973 Nixon and Kissenger saved the Dollar by instating the Petrodollar with the Saudis. In return for military support from the US, the Saudi royal family agreed to only sell oil in Dollars. In 1973 the Saudis were the largest energy producer and the US the biggest consumer. It made sense for the two to set the tone. However, in 2022, the picture is very different. Russian gas and oil holds sway and the Chinese are purchasing.
April 07, 2022
RBA turns hawk – what next for AUD?
Yesterday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting marked a clear turning point for the Aussie central bank. The same bank that not long ago promised we wouldn’t see rising rates for ‘years’ has been doggedly playing its “patience” card of maintaining an all time low cash rate of 0.1% amid the inflationary onslaught and bubble like housing market. Yesterday “patience” was very clearly removed from the narrative. We discuss
April 06, 2022
19 Millionth BTC Mined – How Far Have We Come?
As the 19 millionth bitcoin is mined, several large public buyers have sparked renewed interest in Bitcoin as pristine collateral. Shrimps and Whales are leading widespread coin accumulation, alongside the Luna Foundation Guard who added over 21k BTC to their balance in nine days. Let’s review how far BTC has come in its short history.
April 04, 2022
How Gold Performs
On Friday we shared the very solid year to date performance of gold this year (and every year since 2000) in a variety of currencies. What is particularly important to note is that the performance of gold this year has been achieved ostensibly with relatively limited ETF involvement as equities traders may have just pivoted from growth to value shares and not yet gold with gusto. We share more of the In Gold We Trust preview charts to illustrate.
April 04, 2022
More Stagflation & Recession Signals
On Monday and Wednesday we stepped through the setup for stagflation in the US, the now ‘baked in’ recession to happen soon and how various assets perform in that environment. We shared preview charts from the highly anticipated In Gold We Trust annual. To address any view things may have changed, overnight we saw more new evidence emerge with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure being released and confirmation spending is dropping. We also share gold’s performance in various currencies this century.
April 01, 2022
Russia Accepting Rubles and Gold for Oil and Gas
Russia is demanding payment in Rubles for Oil and Gas with a number of Finance Ministers from NATO countries pushing back. With rumours swirling of Russia taking payment in gold or bitcoin for oil and gas, the Russian Central Bank is buying gold from banks at a rate of 5,000 Rubles per gram (AU$2170/oz) from 28 March to 30 June. Putin has argued that trust in the US Dollar has taken a major blow, and that many countries are now starting to convert their paper assets into real reserves of raw materials, land, food and gold.
March 31, 2022
Recession Baked In – What next?
On Monday we talked to asset performance in a stagflationary environment. Since then we have seen nearly the entire spectrum of US Treasury bonds invert, an event with a 100% track record of ushering in a new recession. Today we look into why and what happens next.
March 30, 2022
Bitcoin Breaks Consolidation Range
The Bitcoin market has seen a stronger week, rallying off the lows of $40,710 US, and breaking out of the consolidation range to a new local high of $47,649. This is the first sustained rally after many months of sideways choppy price action.
March 29, 2022
Asset Performance in Stagflation
Each year one of the most eagerly anticipated annuals is the In Gold We Trust report from Switzerland’s Incrementum. As has been the case for a few years now they are pre releasing a teaser chart pack of what’s to come without any written explanation. As we noted last week, the set up now with persistent inflation and slowing growth is that dreaded financial bogey-man, stagflation. We discuss how various assets perform in such an environment.
March 28, 2022
Australia Has #1 Gold Producer In Sights
An Australian based specialist gold consultancy has revealed that Australia has indeed reclaimed the mantel of 2nd biggest gold producer in the world from Russia and is even flirting with taking the number one spot.
March 25, 2022
Miners vs Metals
With all the talk of commodities like oil and nickel shooting up, precious metals, kings of the commodities, are heating up. Why bother holding the physical when you can just buy shares in a miner? Mining is a very resource intensive business, energy generation, transportation and construction are all major input costs, not to mention labor. While miners have unlimited potential costs, the metal itself has never gone bankrupt.
March 24, 2022
What’s On the Horizon for Crypto?
Bitcoin markets have seen another week of low volatility and price consolidation, trading up from $37,680 US and towards the range high of $42,312 over the weekend. As prices trade within this narrow range, the odds of higher volatility in the near-term build.
March 22, 2022
3 Very Bullish Silver Charts
Today we share 3 very compelling charts for silver. This first shows something that has only happened 2 times previously back to 1970 and heralded 2200% and 730% gains thereafter.
March 20, 2022
AMC Theatres buys 22% of Silver Miner
Meme stock and Reddit market darling AMC has just taken a 22% strategic position in Hycroft Mining (NASDAQ: HYMC) in a US$27.9 million all cash trade. The pre-production silver miner has 600 million ounces of silver alongside 15 million ounces of gold in northern Nevada. With continued demand for the precious metal outstripping demand, AMC may be the one of the first listed companies outside of the mining sector racing to secure ounces in the ground.
March 18, 2022
Gold Calls BS on Fed – Policy Mistake Locked In
As we previewed yesterday the US Fed last night raised rates by 0.25% to tackle rampant inflation. Big deal right? However markets reacted strongly because the same markets who have been pricing in 7 rates hikes this year were surprised when…. the Fed agreed!! Yep, the Fed is now openly forecasting a rate hike at every one of its remaining 6 monthly meetings this year. Buy the rumour sell the fact saw shares rip higher, the USD falling and the yield curve flattened like a pancake. Gold called BS on it all and rallied. The problem locally is the AUD rallied too and took all those gains…. For now…
March 17, 2022
Calm Before the Unknown Storm – Why shares surged and gold fell last night
Unless you live under a rock, you may have heard the US Fed meet tonight and will almost certainly raise US rates for the first time since December 2015. Since we left the gold standard, there is a 100% track record of every reversal of rate policy triggering a recession soon after. 100%. And yet last night growth shares surged, the NASDAQ up over 3%, and gold, silver and bonds all came off. Why?
March 16, 2022
Bitcoin Supply Trends
Bitcoin accumulation trends have softened in the short term, despite extremely constructive long-term demand trends. The potential energy for a capitulation event is in place but is yet to manifest as it has in previous market cycles.
March 15, 2022
Exters Pyramid & the Rush to Gold
We often talk about the supply, demand, price equation in a market where hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of ‘paper assets’ try to buy the meagre (now) $8 trillion of gold or more importantly $1.5 trillion of investable gold. You can’t simply change the supply of gold. Period. That leaves price as the only parameter that can adjust to fit that all in. It has been some time since we shared Exters Pyramid but it is timely to do so again now.
March 14, 2022
A Critical Time for Crypto
The Bitcoin market is in a delicate equilibrium, with limited incoming demand, alongside a slowing sell-side. Let’s analyse exchange flows specifically to assess the characteristics of Bitcoin sales.
March 08, 2022
Record Commodities Surge on Full Fear
Friday night was another volatile one on global markets with the bearish news of the Russian attack on the power plant and the conflicting news of the US NFP employment figures showing a much stronger than expected surge in new jobs of 678K (v 423K expected) but also unexpectedly weak wage growth of just 0.5% amid the rampant inflation reinforcing Main Street America is going backwards. This sets the scene for Bloomberg’s Spot Commodity Index printing its biggest jump since the stagflation crisis of 1974.
March 07, 2022
Bank Run Russian Style & “Inside Money”
Russia’s Central Bank has upped rates to 20% p.a to cajole depositors to keep their currency in bank coffers, but for many, that offer hasn’t proven quite enticing enough. The last two days have seen long lines for ATMs across the country. Major bank Sberbank has seen a 97% cash outflow from it’s UK listed equity and the Ruble has been butting up against a rate of 1:117 all week. We discuss fractional banking at both the individual and sovereign level…
March 03, 2022
Did the Crypto Market Price in The Worst?
Global markets have faced a very sobering week, as armed conflict breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. As a global macro asset, and with markets that never close, the price of Bitcoin was quite volatile in response. This week the market traded down to a low of $34,474, before rapidly recovering to a high of $44,200 this morning.
March 01, 2022
SWIFT, Russia and Shifting Tectonic Plates in Payments
With “What does SWIFT do? And why does it matter to Russia?” trending on Twitter, it seems like WWIII is quickly turning into a conflict defined by digital payments. Opposing forces are seeking to freeze each other’s assets and cut off each other’s payment gateways with almost as much tenacity as those in armed conflict on the ground and in the air. Does Ukraine represent a tectonic shift in global payments and currencies?
February 27, 2022
Gold vs Bitcoin Which is better?
An interview with Collective Shift. Let's talk about today's hot topic, which is GOLD vs. BITCOIN: Which is better. There has always been a never-ending debate about gold being an asset with good returns on investment for ages. Over the past few years, Blockchain has gone on to prove to be one of the best investments as well. Let's dig deep into this audio and analyze how gold and bitcoin investments have grown in the cryptocurrency market
February 24, 2022
2022 Silver Demand Projections
The outlook for silver demand is promising for 2022, with global silver demand forecast to rise to a record high of 1.112 billion ounces (Boz) in 2022.
February 24, 2022
“Trifecta of Macro Imbalances”
Crescat Capital’s latest research letter talks to a “Trifecta of Macro Imbalances” that presents what they call a “highly explosive mix” for the economy. We outline the implications for the broader economy and precious metals in particular.
February 23, 2022
What Headwinds Crypto Faces
Bitcoin bulls face several headwinds, ranging from dwindling demand on-chain, to over 4.7M BTC held at an unrealised loss.
February 22, 2022
The Point of No Return
While the world’s central banks have been buying government bonds with freshly printed currency hand over fist since the GFC, the Bank of Japan stands out as both the first to monetise debt in such a way, starting in 2001, but also facilitating Japan holding the title of world’s most indebted nation with a debt to GDP ratio of over 260%. On news they will buy unlimited bonds at 0.25%, the contrast between the BoJ and western central banks is telling, and we discuss.
February 21, 2022
Gold the hedge to see a surge of inflows
Gold and silver had another very strong night last night as shares again fell heavily. Whilst in part this continues geopolitical anxiety over the Ukraine, the bigger driver appears to be the US economy and by extension the global economy as it is the same theme of central bank overreach or ‘policy error’ tightening into a weakening economy. We discuss the latest calls from big banks about gold’s prospects.
February 18, 2022
Canadian Confiscation & Protecting Your Wealth
In the midst of continuing and peaceful Freedom Convoy protests in Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has declared Martial Law, and can now seize citizens’ bank accounts leaving no recourse. The friction between Government powers and individual liberties continues to intensify. It also makes a perfect case for having some wealth outside of the traditional banking system, whether that be precious metals or cryptocurrencies. We discuss and provide independent storage options available.
February 17, 2022
Volatility & Gold in 2022
Gold and silver took a bit of a hit last night on news that Putin had withdrawn some troops and the inference that the invasion is no longer on. Despite Biden ‘reassuring’ everyone that the reports were ‘not verified’ and that an attack is “still very much a possibility” the market elected to go with everything is awesome again. However we share more insights from Goldman Sachs and others on why gold is still the asset du jour….
February 16, 2022
Crypto Market Opts for Safety
Bitcoin investors have de-risked as global macro headwinds increase. In particular, traders eye the proposed Fed rate hikes in March, opting for protective insurance over speculative calls.
February 15, 2022
Minsky Moment Meets War & Inflation
The drums of war are sounding louder than ever and on Friday night’s ‘confirmation’ that Russia is to invade Ukraine this week, both gold and silver surged nearly 2.3% whilst shares fell around the same. That this comes at exactly the time that the market is worried about an ‘extraordinary meeting’ to be called by the Fed to bring forward rate hikes adds to instability facing them right now. This set up has all the ingredients of the so called Minsky Moment. We explain.
February 14, 2022
HOT US CPI – Policy Mistake Screams Market
Wow. The US CPI print came in last night and again exceeded expectations at a blisteringly hot 7.5%, the highest seen since March of 1982 (when rates were 11.5% not zero). This was the 9th beat of ‘transitory’ expectations in the last 11 months, but it was the market, a Fed member reaction and, most importantly, history that should have holders of financial assets worried.
February 11, 2022
Where money comes from? Canadian Shadow Finance Minister Challenges Parliament
Shadow Finance Minister Pierre Poilievre’s speech to the Canadian parliament has shown that often the simplest questions are the hardest to answer. Faced with a request to approve an additional CA$7bn in expenditure, Poilievre asked 10 of the highest level bureaucrats from the finance department, “Where does the money come from?” Are we seeing the beginnings of governments returning to sound money?
February 10, 2022
Silver “huge outperformance” amid Commodities Boom
A number of financial news sites are running the story of the head of Goldman Sach’s commodities division, Jeff Currie, making the explosive comments in a Bloomberg interview earlier this week that “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this……This is a molecule crisis. We share an article exploring where silver fits in this complex.
February 08, 2022
Have We Seen THE Crypto Bottom?
After three months in a persistent downtrend, the Bitcoin market has found some strength, with the market trading above and holding the psychological $40k US level. Have we experienced THE bottom? Let’s investigate.
February 08, 2022
$30 trillion US Public Debt & What it means
Last week the US hit a milestone no one could have thought possible only a few years ago. The US government is now the proud owner of $30 trillion of debt. As at the end of January they owed $30,012,386,059,238… The US national debt has tripled in just a decade. We discuss where to from here.
February 07, 2022
Inventories – The Hidden Death Knell
Yesterday we wrote of the very high likelihood the US Fed will be tightening into an already peaking economy and the cyclical resonance effect being potentially very bad for markets. Its a must read if you missed it and is a precursor to today’s ‘part 2’ piece delving into Julian Brigden’s latest insights. Today we look at the role of inventories in these cycles. We’d venture that not one reader has not been affected by inventory effects since COVID but few would realise their causation in the economy.
February 04, 2022
How the Fed will tear apart the economy
Today we explore a bit deeper into the view held by many respected analysts that the US Fed, and certainly by extension our own RBA, will be tightening policy into an economy or business cycle coming off its peak… i.e. the very worst time to be doing so.
February 03, 2022
Bitcoin’s Onchain Fair Value
Bitcoin enters its 82nd day of the prevailing drawdown, as derivatives traders bet on further downside. Meanwhile, on-chain demand models suggest a more bullish undertone is in play.
February 01, 2022
Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2021
The World Gold Council’s full year demand trends report is out and as usual we summarise for you. In short a strong Q4 lifted full demand up a solid 10%.
January 31, 2022
Heavy Weights Go Heavy Gold
Yet another night of red on Wall Street and more big names calling for worse to come. Legendary billionaire co founder of the $65b hedge fund GMO has come out calling for a 50% crash in US shares and Goldman Sachs calling trouble ahead and recommending gold as a key investment right now.
January 27, 2022
Russia investigating Gold-Backed Stablecoin
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is investigating a gold-backed stablecoin, a “golden ruble” according to Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Industry and Trade, Vladimir Gutenev. He argues that gold is undervalued compared with the US Dollar, Euro and other fiat-backed currencies. With no national fiat currency holding any tether to gold since 1971, Russia may well be positioning themselves for a first mover advantage in a new global gold standard.
January 26, 2022
Are We Heading Into A Crypto Bear Market?
As Bitcoin prices are cut in half from the ATH, the market experiences a large onchain capitulation event, with $2.5B in net realised losses. So, are we heading into a bear market?
January 25, 2022
The Slow Growth Lower Inflation Case
On Friday we wrote of the misconception that gold goes down when rates go up. Indeed the opposite is the case. Part of this is the reality of market behaviour after a recession. Friday night dished up another salient reminder of how these easy money markets are taking to just the threat of tighter policy with another sea of red across all markets except precious metals. Today we present the opposing case to the prominent high growth high inflation narrative.
January 24, 2022
Why Gold Rises with Tightening
Few investors realise that central banks are nearly always too late to raise rates and tighten financial conditions. For that reason, gold has a history of rising on increased rates not the seemingly intuitive reverse of that. Yesterday we saw spectacular jobs figures for Australia which, when combined with high inflation, effectively force the RBA’s hand to raise rates. However, those reading this as the signal to buy equities and property because ‘everything is awesome’ may be sorely disappointed. Such record low unemployment figures (albeit measured before the impacts of Omicron), normally come at the end of economic cycles not the start.
January 20, 2022
Shares to Fall 30%, Gold & Silver Up - Brigden
Equities markets have painted red all around the world these last couple of days and again it was the tech ‘growth’ shares that faired the worst. The NASDAQ is now down more than 10% putting it into a technical correction for the first time since the COVID plunge in March 2020. Growing fears around central banks removing support are spreading. So why have gold and in particular silver surged? Simplistically investors have been dismissing the seemingly nonsensical valuations of these hand full of tech growth shares (that also completely dominate indexes) on the basis that “fundamentals don’t matter”. The story goes that fundamentals don’t matter because all the new money being injected into the system had to be put somewhere right? So it makes sense then that when said free money is being withdrawn or more expensive to get, that people start to think about fundamentals again…
January 20, 2022
Rick Rule - Institutional Buyers to Ignite Precious Metals Bull Market
Speaking with Wall Street Silver earlier this week Rick Rule argued that it will take more than one year of 7% CPI expansion for main street to jump on the inflation fear train. The last forty years of declining real interest rates and highly accommodative monetary policy have meant that investors don’t fear inflation or the consequences of higher interest rates. Inflation hasn’t been here for long enough to really scare people, two full generations of institutional money managers haven’t experienced it.
January 18, 2022
Fireworks On Horizon for Crypto Market
The Bitcoin market returned to a more docile state following a fear-fuelled last week. Investors and traders appear to be digesting the macro possibilities within this new inflationary regime markets we have entered, alongside an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve. This change in tune has rattled the Bitcoin market in the short term and is at risk of taking control over its medium-term prospects.
January 18, 2022
Gold Outlook 2022 pt2 – World Gold Council
On Friday we brought you part 1 of the latest World Gold Council Gold Outlook 2022 report. Today the second part talks to inflation, real interest rates, market volatility and gold drivers outside all of that.
January 17, 2022
Gold Outlook 2022 pt1 – World Gold Council
The World Gold Council have just released their Gold Outlook 2022 report. It’s a relatively lengthy read so we are bringing it to you in 2 parts. Today we look at the very topical impact of rising rates in the US. We mentioned yesterday that the 3-4 rate hikes the Fed is now signalling has been so well signalled that the market has now priced it in. It was another sea of red on wall street last night so maybe it is still digesting it… That said the WGC point out a very interesting and bullish dynamic about such signalling v reality for gold. Sell the rumour, buy the fact is a thing.
January 13, 2022
Savers Need to Get Paid
US Treasuries and Government bonds the world over are offering nominal anemic yields that have investors looking further afield. 10-Year Bonds in Australia are returning 1.8%, approximately half of the 3.20% annualised inflation rate predicted by the RBA in 2022. With cash in the bank getting eaten away, the Big 4 banks offering 0.25 - 0.30% on fixed term deposits, and the hidden risk of bail-ins(without due return on said risk), more and more savers are moving funds out of the system.
January 13, 2022
The Peril of Passive ETF’s & Breadth
There appears a large portion of economic forecasters predicting that 2022, whilst more volatile than normal, could see continued strong gains in US shares despite the still sky-high valuations. Already this year we have seen some large losses on US shares and then a strong rally like last night. Last night everything went up except the USD and all on the back of Fed chair Powells virtue signaling of ‘we’ve got this’. Today we talk about why passive ETF’s and lack of breadth could see them most certainly ‘not got it’…
January 12, 2022
A Critical Time for Crypto
With onchain indicators hitting significantly oversold conditions, Bitcoin futures markets see all-time-high leverage, with increased chances of volatility, and a short squeeze bias.
January 11, 2022
Gold’s Cup & Handle and $10,000 target
As alluded to in our annual wrap up last year, the technical cup and handle formation for gold is clear, with a number of prominent market commentators pointing to it.
January 09, 2022
‘Must Read’ - Gold & The Changing World Order
A bit of a longer one today but it is a critical read if you want to understand the ‘big picture’. This is the macro of macro.. We summarise Ray Dalio’s latest piece on the changing world order and how that impacts investment. A fascinating look at the current setup in the long term historical context as we try to make sense of these times.
January 07, 2022
Why 2022 Could Be An “economic inflection point”
Whilst there is growing consensus around strong inflation and the subsequent need for the Fed and other central banks to tighten monetary policy, respected analyst Raoul Pal has maintained his view throughout that the inflation will be somewhat transitory and a global slowdown, and indeed an “economic inflection point” is close.
December 22, 2021
Strong Hands Still Stacking BTC
Bitcoin endured a second consecutive week of price ranging, following the sharp drawdown in early December. After opening at $50,093 US, the price saw a high of $50,186 and a low of $45,671, a compressed range that spanned only $4,515, with BTC closing out the week down -6.1% presenting a great opportunity for investors to top up their crypto portfolio.
December 21, 2021
The Great Rotation Into Metals
We’ve mentioned the ‘perverse distortions’ currently fundamental to the current market set up. Such distortions are seeing some financial assets and property at ridiculous highs and all on the back of record debt levels at near zero rates. With interest rates looking set to rise amid said debt it is prudent to remind ourselves in a few telling charts where we are at and where gold and silver sit amongst it.
December 20, 2021
AUD hits 60 handle – more to come?
Friday night saw the latest NFP employment figures out of the US and whilst it was a big miss in the number of newly employed at just 210,000 the unemployment rate dropped as participation remains stubbornly low. This has experts wondering if the participation rate has been structurally changed by COVD. We discuss the impacts on the AUD.
December 06, 2021
Its not just supply chains! Why inflation is at both ends
As we wrote on Wednesday, even Fed Chair Jerome ‘Transitory’ Powell is conceding this inflation set up is anything but transitory.  The problem is they are still citing ‘supply chain issues’ as the key driver but the evidence on the demand side is just as compelling. Australia is already seeing the unintended consequences of the ‘policy error’…
December 03, 2021
Bye bye “transitory” hello “End Game”
We discuss the big moves in markets yesterday and overnight as Powell drops ‘transitory’, Moderna warn around vaccines and Omicron and then Julian Brigden’s massive call on the USD. Certainly a must read today.
December 01, 2021
The Final Dip?
The market continues to drawdown this week, despite Short- and Long-Term investors holding more profitable supply than the recent correction in September. Bitcoin traded lower this week, alongside weakness across many traditional assets, largely due to renewed concerns over new virus variants. Bitcoin's price opened at a high of $59,339 US and reached the lowest price for the month of $53,569. This continues the price correction that has been in play for most of November.
November 30, 2021
A Fascinating Journey – How we got here and what to do.
The following Tweet on Saturday whilst with a Bitcoin ending is just as applicable and bullish for gold and silver. Its about money and it is a fantastic journey through history that everyone should read. We don’t know or implicitly endorse the author, but to be fair he largely drew from an interview with Roaul Pal who we do rate.
November 29, 2021
Gold Price – Why the correction & where to from here?
Gold has had a wild old ride over the last month, surging to highs not seen in a year before falling back to August levels over the last week. Today we look at why and where to from here?
November 26, 2021
Turkey and Venezuela turn to gold
Gold is going parabolic in Turkey just as the citizens of Venezuela turn to flakes of gold to pay for goods and services. Yesterday, the Turkish Lira fell to a historic low in USD terms, as annual inflation now nears 20%. They aren’t the only two inflation hot-spots, with threats of “super-inflation” brewing across the globe.
November 24, 2021
Central Banks Buying Gold – Don’t Do As I Do, Do as I Say
Sovereign states are again piling into gold. The world’s central banks net bought 393 tonne of gold in the first 3 quarters of this year, more than all of the full year’s 255 tonne bought in 2020. China is back with vengeance, Russia too and Poland’s central bank president laid out very clearly why they will buy another 100 tonne next year. We put Australia into context and discuss.
November 24, 2021
Are You Buying The Dip?
The Bitcoin price tumbled this week from a high of $66,281 to a low of $55,705, rattling a previously quiet and bullish run-in price action. While price stays pinned below new highs and sentiment remains scattered, Bitcoin's stakeholders are actively adjusting to new market information. This has shown up as a recent shifting of coin distribution amongst holders.
November 23, 2021
$200m Payday for CFTC Whistleblower
The CFTC, US commodities watchdog, has announced a $200 million payday for a whistleblower who provided significant contributions to ‘enforcement actions that have resulted in monetary sanctions totalling more than $3 billion. Given that the largest (known) CFTC fine was JP Morgans for $920 million for manipulating precious metals markets, market commentators are speculating that the two may be connected.
November 22, 2021
Bitcoin Taproot Upgrade Takes Hold
Bitcoin just got better! Block 709,632 was officially the first Bitcoin block mined with the new Taproot upgrade. This marks the first upgrade since 2017 which saw both the “soft fork” Segregated Witness as well as a “hard fork” which led to the creation of Bitcoin Cash. Let’s take a dive in and see what this upgrade has in store for Bitcoin and it’s hodlers.
November 18, 2021
RBA’s own ‘policy error’ comes home to roost
It is becoming increasingly hard for ‘believests’ to ignore what is so clearly coming in The Lucky Country and that directly correlates with Ainslie being increasingly busy with people buying up bullion and crypto to protect themselves. Today we talk to the RBA’s failed YCC experiment and the problem it leaves behind with no real solution.
November 17, 2021
Mainstream narrative turning on The Fed
Last week's “surprise” inflation numbers rippled through the mainstream financial media. While precious metals investors have seen this coming since QE1, the last few weeks have seen growing murmurs coming from traditional media that are now gathering consensus. Tasked with controlling inflation, the Federal Reserve has been hailed as the savior of financial markets since the GFC, but we may be seeing the first signs of the hens coming home to roost on their policies.
November 15, 2021
MUST READ – Paying for Easy Money – The US Fiscal Ponzi Scheme
So what’s the best thing you could do to ease multi-decade-high inflationary pressures and record high ($29 trillion + $159 trillion unfunded) debt burdens if you were the US Government? Approve a $1 trillion deficit funded infrastructure plan of course! This week saw exactly that happen and on Monday Joe Biden will sign the largest federal investment in infrastructure bill in over a decade. Moreover, in securing the deal he got Democrat support too for ANOTHER $1.75 trillion for the Build Back Better bill (social safety net and climate package) and a commitment to railroad it past the Republicans in the senate. 2.75 thousand billion dollarspaid for, not through tax receipts, but by issuing more debt with the disarming name of US Treasury bonds… We discuss and share an excellent insight on it all from one of our favourite economists. Take the time to read it all over the weekend.
November 12, 2021
Onchain Data Suggests More Gains for Crypto
Bitcoin has had a remarkably strong week, consolidating between $59,743 US and $64,242, holding onto almost all of Octobers gains. As the Bitcoin price coils into what appears to be a very tight bull flag, the onchain market continues to show strength in supply dynamics, whilst onchain activity remains well below bull market highs.
November 09, 2021
The Wall Street Silver Generation
The Gamestop and AMC mania of early 2021 lit a fire underneath young investors, capturing the imaginations of a new generation. Starting off as an offshoot of its namesake, r/wallstreetsilver now plays host to 165,000 “apes”, with hundreds “in the jungle” at any one time. The movement also has a Youtube channel with interviews with many of the industry heavy hitters, and an extremely active community of silver bugs.
November 07, 2021
Aussie Property & Rising Rates - “largest property correction on record”
Gold and silver had strong rallies last night, reclaiming what was lost after the Fed taper announcement and more. Whilst the financial markets rejoice at the Fed maintaining zero interest rates for longer and only very slowly reducing QE, the realization that this will do nothing to quell surging inflation is returning to the investment narrative. Today we discuss how the RBA fit in here and what may be ahead for Aussie property.
November 05, 2021
Taper Take-off versus Tantrum – “practically miraculous”
Buy the rumour sell the fact became sell the rumour buy the fact last night as the Fed confirmed it will commence tapering this month and shares….. went up!? In a classic human behavioural response given the almost certain announcement, the market clearly hasn’t put the following 2 charts side by side…
November 04, 2021
RBA buying A$4 billion a week in bonds
Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released it’s monthly statement on Monetary Policy Decisions. They are continuing to purchase bonds issued by the Australian Government at a rate of A$4 billion per week. The cash rate remains at 0.10%, a rate it has remained at now since November of 2020. They have halted their yield curve control program and quietly dropped the written assurance rates won’t rise until 2024 in the only concession to rising inflation. The RBA has also quietly tripled their holdings in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).