The Global Agora

How close or far is the US from a civil war? This was my question for Jay Ulfelder, a political scientist who works as a Research Project Manager at the Nonviolent Action Lab at the Harvard Kennedy School. From 2001 until 2011, he served as Research Director for the Political Instability Task Force, a US Government-funded program that aims to help policymakers anticipate and understand various forms of political crisis around the world. This episode of my podcast has been partly inspired by a new movie Civil War. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠⁠

Iran has hit Israel with up to 350 drones and ballistic and cruise missiles. Most of them were destroyed by the air defense as Israel's allies helped also. So what will follow after this unprecedented attack? How far is the Middle East from the big regional war? I talked to ⁠James Dorsey⁠, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠

I'm talking to Maria Avdeeva from Kharkiv from the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion. She is a security expert and I remember her telling me she wants to inform the world about what's going on in her country. And Maria is doing it all the time! This time we talk about how her city is constantly attacked and if we can expect a Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

NATO is a success story, but as Alliance turns 75 can it also face demise? Over seven decades, what is the brightest hour, and what about the most problematic moment of NATO? And is Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk right when he says Europe could be in the pre-war era as Russia continues with its aggression against Ukraine? I talked to John Deni, a Research Professor of Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute. Before joining the U.S. Army War College, John worked for 8 years as a political advisor for senior American military commanders in Europe, but his views do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Government. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Russia was attacked by Islamic State but Moscow is trying to shift the blame and is spreading conspiracy theories about Ukraine's involvement. The Kremlin is lying despite the severity of the threat as on March 22nd, extremists killed 143 people in the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk in the Moscow Oblast. So is counterterrorism cooperation with Russia possible, taking into account also the brutal war Moscow is waging against Ukraine? And why was Russia attacked by ISIS? I talked to Lucas Webber, a co-founder and editor of Militant Wire. It's a media company that provides analysis of militant activity and armed conflict around the world. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Should the West try to turn China and India against Russia? What is the most visible impact of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on EU-Asia relations? And how close is China to Russia? I discussed those questions with Michael Raiterer. He is a Distinguished Professor at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) of the Brussels School of Governance and served as the EU Ambassador in South Korea. Our interview took place at the CEE-Asia Forum in Bratislava organized by the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) and Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA). Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

This time, I talked to Slovak political scientist ⁠Pavol Baboš⁠ from the Department of Sociology at Comenius University in Bratislava. We discussed the incoming presidential elections in Slovakia and the two clear favorites. The Speaker of the Parliament Peter Pellegrini and the former foreign minister Ivan Korčok. The first round of the elections will take place on April 23rd, and the second round, with the two most successful candidates, on April 6th. Can we say who will win it? And what about the autocratic tendencies of the current Slovak government? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Will Ursula von der Leyen be President of the European Commission again? She has been confirmed as the European People's Party candidate to continue with her current job and it's pretty sure that the EPP will win the European Parliament elections in June.  But... "For me, it's not obvious that she will stay," Policy Analyst from the European Policy Centre Eric Maurice reacts. Why does he say this and what's next for the EPP after the elections? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Toms Rostoks is a Director at the Centre for Security and Strategic Research at the National Defence Academy of Latvia and an Associate Professor at the University of Latvia. We tried to assess what happened in two years of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, to forecast what might be next but we also talked about the scenario that at least some Western troops will help Kyiv. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Oleksandra Matviichuk is a Ukrainian human rights lawyer and head of the Center for Civil Liberties. Her organization was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022. But, unfortunately, we talked about the war, about the Russian full-scale invasion that has already been ongoing for two years. "This is wishful thinking that Putin will stop. Putin openly talked about his goal in numerous interviews. He said there is no Ukrainian nation, and that we are the same people as Russians, which means through this genocidal policy Ukraine has to be occupied and people in Ukraine have to be reeducated as Russians or killed and that is why we have no other choice. If we stop fighting, there will be no more of us," said Oleksanda to me. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

How can Europe react to Donald Trump's threats to NATO? There is a realistic scenario that the populist Republican can win the US presidential elections in November. What would it mean to NATO when Trump suggested that he would encourage Moscow to attack allies that are, as he said this, not paying bills? I talked to Edward Hunter Christie, a Senior Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Are we inching towards a big regional war in the Middle East? "What we see today is that two major unresolved issues are starting to interact with each other and could cause quite serious problems. One is, of course, the unresolved position of Iran. And the second problem is, of course, the unresolved issue of Palestine." This is what Erwin van Veen sees when he looks at the Middle East. He is a Senior Research Fellow at Clingendael Institute’s Conflict Research Unit and head of Clingendael’s Middle East program. We talked about the war in Gaza, the Houthis' attack in the Red Sea, and Iran-Saudi rivalry but also about Russia and China and their approaches to the current events in the Middle East. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Bille August is a Danish film and TV director and screenwriter. His movie Pelle the Conqueror won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Movie in 1988. He visited Bratislava for the festival of Scandinavian movies - SCANDI which introduced his movie The Kiss to the Slovak audience. And by chance, I've got an opportunity to interview him. So we talked about films, movie stars, actors, Indiana Jones, Richard Nixon, and revenge. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Almost there. Sweden is now waiting only for a green light from Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán to become a member of NATO. But what will Stockholm bring to the Alliance? And how to prepare NATO and the EU for a potential war with Russia? According to Johan Norberg, a Senior Military Analyst from the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI), the West needs to continue its support for Ukraine and it has to act quickly. And it also has to keep its unity. But is it possible? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Does Hungary's PM Viktor Orbán want to take over the European Council? Charles Michel, the current President of the European Council, wants to run in June's EU elections, so there is a possibility that Orbán can replace him as Hungary starts its Presidency of the Council of the EU on July 1st. So what could be Orban's plan and how to deal with his regime? I talked to Daniel Hegedüs. He is a German Marshall Fund Senior Fellow focused on Central Europe and he extensively covers populism and democratic backsliding in Central and Eastern Europe. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

The countdown to the US presidential elections starts with the party primaries. There is a clear favorite on the Republican side, but can Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis threaten Donald Trump's position? And if Trump is the nominee, what does it tell us about how the current Republican party perceives democracy? I talked to J. Miles Coleman who is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ newsletter on American campaigns and elections. We have also discussed scenarios such as Trump not being the nominee or Democratic President Joe Biden saying he is not running. What would it mean? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

⁠Franz-Stefan Gady⁠ is the founder and chief executive officer of Gady Consulting and a military analyst. From the beginning of the Russian aggression, he has frequently visited Ukraine and if you are regularly listening to my podcast The Global Agora, you know that I interviewed him a couple of times in the past. So I am glad Franz joined me for another episode in the series of our debates. We discussed what can be the potential course of the war in 2024, what trends we might witness, and also what are the main military options Ukraine and Russia can still exploit. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Tomohisa Takei is a retired Japanese admiral who served as the 32nd Chief of Staff of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force from 2014 to 2016. I had a chance to talk to him as he visited Bratislava in December. He explained how his country would react to China's attack against Taiwan, how to prevent it, and how is the Indo-Pacific region affected by the Russian war against Ukraine. And would Japan fight Russia over the Kuril Islands? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Taylor Swift was named Person of the Year 2023 by Time. Does she deserve this? What makes her so special? Her skill as a musician? Her phenomenal commercial success? Does she already have a place among the best artists in the history of pop music? And can Taylor Swift run for the US President? I talked to Toby Koenigsberg, an Associate Professor of Jazz Piano and Chair of Popular Music at the University of Oregon. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

There is support in the US for Ukraine but the Republicans have decided that Americans are more concerned about the cost and the Biden administration, I must say, has been terrible in explaining why Ukraine is important. This is what Steffen Schmidt also known as Dr. Politics told me when we discussed upcoming Republican presidential primaries and also the foreign policy effects on presidential elections. He is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Iowa State University, which means we, of course, talked about the Iowa caucuses that will be held in one month, on January 15th. So what to expect from the Republican primaries? Will Donald Trump easily confirm his frontrunner status or can Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley still hope? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Daniele Albertazzi is a Professor of Politics and Co-Director of the Centre for Britain and Europe at the University of Surrey. He is focusing on right-wing populism, Italian politics, political communication, and party organization. He reacted to one of my tweets and it led to our podcast discussion. We talked about the foreign and domestic policies of Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, about her possible competition with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán over the leadership of the European radical right, and also about whether Meloni's support for Ukraine will last. And do you want to know what tweet of mine triggered this debate? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Is Vladimir Putin's regime surprisingly too resilient and does Donald Trump represent a clear and present danger to American democracy? I raised such questions with Michael Chertoff who was the second US Secretary of Homeland Security from 2005 to 2009. He just attended the ITAPA conference in Bratislava. We also discussed Ukraine-West relations and whether he plans to endorse somebody in the upcoming presidential elections. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Martin Edwards is a Professor in the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University, where he teaches classes on International Organizations. So I asked him if we need the UN, if there is a case for suspending Russia from the UN as it wages a war against Ukraine, and what it can and can not do about the Gaza conflict. We also talked about the veto the P5 countries are using and, let's say misusing, and about what the UN needs except for reforms. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

What can a war do to the artist? I talked to the Ukrainian director Alisa Kovalenko about fighting Russians and making movies. She recently visited Slovakia and at the movie festival Jeden Svet - One World she presented her documentary We Will Not Fade Away which follows the lives of five teenagers from Donbas. Why does she say that she believes in victory but she is a realist? And what had Alisa seen even before Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi started to talk about it? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Mick Ryan is a military strategist and retired Australian Army major general. He believes that the slow delivery of the Western weapon systems to Ukraine is one of the reasons why the Russians were able to build strong defensive lines. We discussed the successes and failures of Ukraine's counteroffensive, why he thinks that Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi injected a dose of reality into the conversation about the war, and also what we got wrong about Russia. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

On October 29th, an angry mob tried to hunt for Jews at Makhachkala’s Uytash International Airport, and the local authorities were caught off guard. How much does the events in Dagestan reflect the antisemitism of the Russian society? Are we going to witness similar incidents? I talked to Harold Chambers, an expert on the North Caucasus and a doctoral candidate at Indiana University. And from Dagasten we pivoted to Chechnya and we discussed the potential ambitions of Ramzan Kadyrov. Could he try to replace President Vladimir Putin and would it lead to the break up of Russia? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

If you haven't read this already, I would like to recommend a report from The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) titled: Greyzone Lawfare: Russia and the Voyages of the SPARTA IV. It shows how certain Russian vessels appear to continue regularly transiting the Bosporus with military materiel, in breach of international law. I talked to one of the co-authors of the report. Giangiuseppe Pili is an Assistant Professor in the Intelligence Analysis Program at James Madison University and a RUSI's Associate Fellow. We discussed what Russian ships in the Black Sea are hiding and how to stop them but we talked also about the broader topic of how Russia is trying to evade sanctions. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Can the Republicans govern and do they care about it? They have a majority in the House of Representatives, but at this moment they are unable to elect the Speaker of the House. The candidacy of Jim Jordan just bit the dust despite the endorsement from Donald Trump. But should somebody like Jordan be seriously considered to become the House Speaker? The congressman from Ohio is known for supporting the Big Lie and he voted not to certify the Electoral College results. So what if Trump wins the presidential elections in 2024, but Vice President Kamala Harris says his electoral votes don't count? How would somebody like Jordan react? This interesting question popped up in my debate with Professor of History Seth Cotlar from Willamette University in Oregon. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

How much is Haiti a functioning state in the situation where 300 gangs are active across the state and the government cannot enforce its authority in quite a few areas? Not to mention the widespread problem of kidnappings. All of this is happening as Haiti remains the poorest country in Latin America and the Caribbean region. Can it be at least partly reversed by the expected UN-backed Kenya's security mission? What can be done about the power of the gangs and how do these criminal structures operate? I talked to Diego Da Rin, a consultant for Latin America and the Caribbean in the International Crisis Group. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

After Slovakia, in Central Europe, all eyes are on Poland. Poles vote in parliamentary elections on October 15th. The winner will be either the populist-conservative political alliance United Right led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski's Law and Justice party (PiS) or the center-right Civic Coalition that was formed around the Civic Platform of Donald Tusk. I went through those scenarios with Vít Dostál, the Executive Director of the Association for International Affairs (AMO) in Prague. He focuses on Czech foreign and European policy, Central European cooperation, and Polish foreign and domestic policy. So I also asked him if the victory of Law and Justice could lead to the creation of an illiberal front in Europe. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

How can Europe build a new security architecture? Can it wait until the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House? Should the West abandon all self-imposed red-lines when helping Ukraine? And does German Chancellor Olaf Scholz regret that he started to talk about Zeitenwende? At the GLOBSEC event in Bratislava, I talked to Ulrich Schneckener, Professor of International Relations & Peace and Conflict Studies at Osnabrück University. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Slovak early elections will take place on September 30. It seems the winner will be either the left-wing populist Smer of former Prime Minister Robert Fico or liberal Progressive Slovakia. What does it mean for the country internally and externally? Can Slovakia become the next Hungary and the Trojan horse of Russia in the EU and NATO? I talked to Slovak political scientist Pavol Baboš from the Department of Sociology at Comenius University in Bratislava. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Is Russia dangerously close to NATO? The drone incident in Romania shows it won't be wise to underestimate the situation. "Russia is escalating and testing NATO," Iulia-Sabina Joja thinks. She is a Senior Fellow and Director of Middle East Institute's Black Sea Program and she teaches European security as an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University and George Washington University. We talked about how NATO should react to what Russia is doing and also about what the Alliance can do in the Black Sea region. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Andrew Lebovich is a Research Fellow with Clingendael's Conflict Research Unit and also a Postdoctoral Researcher with the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). When the coup in Niger happened at the end of July, he was doing research in this West African country. So I was really happy when he said yes to my request for an interview. I asked him also a question that is probably a simplistic one. Is the coup in Niger a pro-Russian coup? But we also discussed the role of France and the US in Niger, what to expect or maybe not to expect from ECOWAS and the risks of an epidemic of the coups in Africa. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠

The Republicans want to send the military to... Mexico? It was quite a prominent topic of the first presidential debate of the GOP candidates. So what is behind this rhetoric? Is Mexico a functioning state taking into account the strong presence of drug cartels that are shipping highly lethal fentanyl to the US? I talked to Vanda Felbab-Brown, a Director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She visited Mexico in June and July, so I also asked her how dangerous it is to conduct the field research there. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

If this was a sort of deathmatch between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, the result is very clear now. Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash on August 23rd. But did Putin specifically order the killing of Prigozhin? I talked to political analyst Anton Barbashin who is an editorial director of Riddle, which is a website about Russia I can only recommend. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Lee Morgenbesser is an Associate Professor in Comparative Politics at the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University.  His most recent book is titled The Rise of Sophisticated Authoritarianism in Southeast Asia, so he is a perfect match for the next episode of my podcast. We discussed how Prime Minister Hun Sen took over Cambodia and if his reign is somehow unique if we compare Hun Sen to other authoritarian rulers. The July election showed that Hun Sen is running the country seemingly unopposed. But can people in Cambodia still resist his rule? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Cristiano Ronaldo led the way, other big football stars, though many of them are aging stars, follow. Karim Benzema, N'Golo Kante, Roberto Firmino or Jordan Henderson, just to name a few. Why is Saudi Arabia spending crazy money on football players? Is this a clear example of sportwashing? Can the Saudis' effort be sustainable? I talked to James Dorsey, who is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer and other publications. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

I've got three recommendations for you. I recommend watching Oppenheimer. I recommend reading the book American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer, co-authored by Kai Bird and the late Martin Sherwin, on which the movie is based. And I recommend listening to this episode of my podcast as I had a chance to talk to Kai Bird. And I do believe we had a very interesting debate about the movie, his book, and about how relevant Oppenheimer is these days. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Franz-Stefan Gady is the founder and chief executive officer of Gady Consulting and also a consulting senior fellow with the Institute for International Strategic Studies. With the other experts he recently visited Ukraine's frontlines, so I am glad he agreed to discuss what he saw and what could be next for Ukraine's offensive and Russia's defense. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

The Spanish elections will take place on July 23rd and it seems we will witness the same situation as in some other European countries. It means that the mainstream right will have to collaborate with the far-right to govern. In the case of Spain, we are talking about the People's Party cooperating with Vox. But would the far-right Vox in government change the country? I talked to Alejandro Quiroga who is a Reader in Spanish History at Newcastle University. We have also discussed why the right is leading in the polls and how the electoral campaign is influenced by the Russian war against Ukraine. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

The current polls show that the far-right Alternative for Germany, in German Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), is the second most popular party in the country. While it is an extremely unlikely scenario, I wanted to know what would happen if the AfD would rule Germany. So I talked to Kai Arzheimer who is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Mainz. We have also discussed why the AfD is rising in the polls and how it's connected with the Russian war against Ukraine. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠⁠

As the NATO summit in Vilnius is approaching and the war intensifies, I talked to Ben Hodges who is a former commanding general, United States Army Europe. He explained how he sees the Ukrainian offensive and what are Russians doing to counter it. We have also discussed what weapons Kyiv needs for the possible breakthrough and why the West is still not providing such systems. And what does he expect from the NATO summit in terms of strengthening defense of the Eastern flank and regarding Ukraine's ambitions to join the Alliance? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠

Should Iran face more sanctions if it continues helping Russia to wage a brutal war against Ukraine? I talked to Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University. We also discussed how far would Russia go to help Iran and vice versa, how the Russian war affects the Middle East, China in the region, and how weak or strong is the regime in Tehran. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠

John Sipher is a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, and the co-founder of Spycraft Entertainment, a production firm providing content to the entertainment industry. He retired in 2014 after a 28-year career in the CIA’s National Clandestine Service, which included serving in Moscow and running the CIA’s Russia operations. So I asked him if he would hire current  Russian President Vladimir Putin for the CIA looking at his KGB's career. We also discussed John's career, the brutal Russian war against Ukraine, Spycraft Entertainment, but also how deep into Putin's inner circle can the Western intelligence services see. Do you wanna know? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠

Andrei Kolesnikov is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. For now, he stays in Russia, although he was labeled as a foreign agent. According to Andrei, Russian society is basically the same if we compare pre-war times and the current situation. The group of Putin's non-supporters has always been around 15-20 percent and the invasion didn't change this. So can something penetrate the mind of Russians? Does Putin's regime resemble the late era of Stalin? Should we be worried that with all the talks about nuclear weapons, Russia may think that maybe they are not that dangerous? And what about the relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner's boss Yevgeny Prigozhin? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠

Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper cannot be clearer. He believes Donald Trump would try to pull the US out of NATO and South Korea in his second term. I talked to Esper at the annual GLOBSEC conference in Bratislava and we also discussed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Republican Party, and China. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠

What happens if Belarus' dictator Alexander Lukashenko dies? I talked to the opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. And she has a plan. She fights for her country as her husband Siarhiej is imprisoned by the regime. We also discussed the dangers of the Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, Ukraine and how she works hard to keep Belarus on agenda. Our debate took place at the annual GLOBSEC conference in Bratislava. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

How can Ukraine plan its counteroffensive? Would the F-16 jets help Kyiv? And what can Russia do to counter the impending attack? I talked to Johan Norberg, a Senior Military Analyst from the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI). Why does he think that the West will decide the war? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

She hates him because of his politics! It's all about money and fame! Is this why E. Jean Carroll sued Donald Trump? Not at all, a friend of Carroll Jennifer Taub explains. She is a Law Professor at Western New England University School of Law, author of the Substack newsletter Money & Gossip, and host of the podcast Booked Up with Jen Taub. In our debate, she dissected the verdict of the civil trial E. Jean Carroll v. Donald Trump and we also discussed why she thinks that the Republican Party is the anti-women party. Read also her book Big Dirty Money: Making White Collar Criminals Pay and listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak