Yet Another Value Podcast

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For more information and to subscribe to TeraWulf, please visit: https://www.terawulf.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review

[1:34] Patrick Fleury's background / difference between oil and gas mining to bitcoin mining at TeraWulf

[6:10] Defining hash rate and hash price

[12:48] Halving

[14:10] ROI for every new bitcoin miner they build

[19:04] Cost of capital / power costs

[24:33] Economies of scale and growth for growth's sake

[28:05] ROI on a 20-year investment in bitcoin miner (when considering halvings happen every 4 years) / cooling / low cost mining strategy

[33:41] What happens if bitcoin price drops (from mining operation perspective)

[38:13] Why issuing shares and directing all cash flows to pay down debt the best use of capital?

[40:15] Valuation and where Patrick thinks bitcoin miners should trade / replacement costs on assets in the ground

[45:38] Mining facilities, power, AI plays, turning over to HFC and AI machines / power capacity, source of power

[54:43] Nautilus facility / bitcoin mining tax / expanding internationally

[100:16] Capital allocation

[1:01:36] M&A / value discrepancies / final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review

Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.

Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.

The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.

Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.

Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.

If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/

Haypp Group write-up: https://invariant.substack.com/p/haypp-group-nicotine-pouch-trend

For more information and to subscribe to Devin LaSarre's newsletter, Invariant, please visit: https://invariant.substack.com/

You can Follow Devin LaSarre on Twitter/X @DevinLaSarre: https://twitter.com/DevinLaSarre

Chapters: [0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review

[1:36] What is the Haypp Group and why it's interesting to Devin and overview of the smoking alternatives industry

[6:52] Demand for nicotine and oral products (pouches, snus, dips)

[13:44] Haypp Group - investing thesis, why attractive idea to Devin

[17:44] What is differentiated about Haypp Group; why is this not the most competitive, lowest margin business

[23:21] What's a "Zyn-fluencer" and marketing challenges

[26:24] Customer acquisition costs / focus on SEO

[33:06] Haypp Group's pricing and cost structure

[41:01] Alternative smoking product consumer trends, switching up brands

[48:30] Addressing risk factors / Haypp's moat

[57:07] Insights business

[59:47] Regulation risk with selling alternative smoking products online

[1:07:23] Valuation

[1:12:32] Where alpha potentially comes from since Haypp stock's double in last 6 months

[1:18:06] Low capex

[1:21:30] Switching costs from cigarettes to alternative smoking products

Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review

Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.

Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.

The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.

Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.

Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.

If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review

[2:14] Chris' high level thoughts as we conclude March 2024

[3:35] Meme stocks back in vogue / $DJT

[7:31] Deeper dive on $DJT / monetizing celebrity

[14:54] Is speculation back?

[18:09] Small caps due for some revenge?

[23:40] Crypto, bitcoin halving, performance since launch of ETFs

[32:06] SBF sentencing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review

Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.

Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.

The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.

Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.

Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.

If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/

$PWFL / $MIXT Memo: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eONP4_CF6UPAKXYuZiDedUt2jRimujTa/view

For more information for Lake Cornelia Research Management and Judd Arnold, you can can Follow on Twitter/X @CorneliaLake: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:53] Overview of $MIXT / $PWFL

[10:18] Why $MIXT / $PWFL merger is so interesting to Judd

[21:21] Pushback on the bull case for the merger

[27:56] Switching costs / AI

[34:22] Open vs. closed systems

[37:38] Management and incentives

[48:44] Management's comments and vision post-deal

[53:58] Thoughtful pushback Judd has received on thesis

[59:20] Merger background

[1:07:26] Why Judd publishes these long notes? Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research. From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights. Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost. You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact. Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research. To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

You can Follow Matt Warder on Twitter/X @mfwarder: https://twitter.com/mfwarder

Range Global Resources Coal ETF: https://rangeetfs.com/coal

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction

[1:27] High level thoughts on Coal

[6:07] Coal's investment narrative from last few years

[12:50] "Commodities don't die down, they die up" / down cycle in thermal coal

[16:07] Biden admin on coal

[21:38] Metallurgical coal ideas

[26:17] Global cost curve for metallurgical coal "met coal" / are we mining less efficiently?

[35:41] "Greening" of metallurgical coal?

[42:53] Domestic coal plays $AMR

[48:54] $HCC / Blue Creek Mine

[57:17] Does upcoming election matter for the coal investment case

[1:00:28] $HCC $AMR valuations

[1:06:09] Final thoughts on coal

For more information about Broyhill Asset Management, please visit: https://www.broyhillasset.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:35] As a generalist, how Chris and team arrived looking at healthcare + GLP-1 tangent

[9:16] Overview of Avantor, Inc. $AVTR and why it's interesting to Chris

[13:56] Laboratory Solutions (accounts for 2/3's of $AVTR revs) / how embedded is $AVTR with customer base (CDMO business)

[20:19] VWR acquisition

[23:02] Disconnect between reported numbers and large cap comparisons / understanding cyclicality in life sciences/healthcare

[32:36] Variant opinion that generates alpha in $AVTR

[37:14] Why not own $TMO or $DHR over $AVTR?

[42:06] Capital allocation and M&A

[46:22] Build vs. sell

[48:35] Recovery story: bull or base case when $AVTR shared guidance

[54:01] Return on due diligence work with $AVTR, perception as a complicated business

[1:02:04] Tail risks

[1:06:39] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

For more information about Gator Capital Management, please visit: https://gatorcapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:49] What's most interesting to Derek in Financials sector today / $NYCB / Valley and Western Alliance

[12:28] Western Alliance

[19:43] Capital One and thoughts on Discover merger

[28:36] Overall regulatory environment with banks and financials

[30:51] Election and how that affects banks

[33:26] Robinhood

[41:47] Fannie's and Freddie's

[47:50] $NYCB cont'd.

[50:32] Thoughts on buybacks based on conversations with bank CEO's

[1:01:18] Why Derek thinks banks are below average businesses

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

For more information about Plural Invest, please visit: https://www.pluralinvesting.com/

Plural Investing write up on TerraVest $TVK.TO: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57eff176e58c621a298bfa61/t/65c1736ea99cbe30a72634d1/1707176815309/Plural+Investing+Report+on+Terravest+%282024.01.24%29.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:54] What is TerraVest and why are they so interesting to Chris

[4:51] Why is TerraVest underfollowed?

[6:47] Why can their acquire at a discount and $TVK.TO's business model, overview, value proposition

[14:21] Propane tank industry / location moat

[19:44] How TerraVest pulls off the reduction in steel costs

[22:27] Why hasn't Private Equity stepped in to roll up the propane tank industry?

[25:48] How does TerraVest get labor cost down?

[29:35] Tanker and Boiler businesses / recent Highland Tanks acquisition

[35:13] Terminal value questions

[40:49] Management, insider ownership and incentives

[44:50] Valuation / Organic growth / How much accretive acquisitions to drive real performance here

[51:29] Cyclicality[54:27] Capital allocation

[57:40] $TVK.TO bear case

[1:00:46] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

For more information about Speedwell Research, please visit: https://speedwellresearch.com/

Speedwell Research profile on Constellation Software: https://speedwellresearch.com/companies/reports/constellation-software/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:41] Who is Constellation Software and why are they interesting to Drew

[6:05] How $CSU.TO is scaling their business model / competing with private equity

[13:00] Reverse DCF, deploying capital, competing now with other billion dollar software businesses

[21:02] Mark Leonard - is $CSU.TO a jockey bet / capital allocation / sellers

[28:32] $CSU.TO - what takes this company out

[30:57] AI risk?

[32:52] Price increases / TransDigm comparison / competition risk

[40:08] $CSU.TO vs. parking capital at index fund / likelihood of deploying at least 50% of their cash flow over next 10-ish years

[45:07] Operating synergies with 6 verticals? Why not more spin-offs?

[47:07] Additional worry about $CSU.TO - changing incentive system

[51:58] Aside from Berkshire, what are other examples of Constellation-like culture

[54:57] Speedwell's favorite write-ups he's done recently + quick thoughts on $RH

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:09] Thoughts on New ETF $BOXX

[18:55] Bitcoin and upcoming "halving" / current thoughts on crypto in general

[30:44] Are we in a $BTC mania?

[33:15] Anti-trust outlook - election proxy? Using Capital One buying Discover as an example

[43:11] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

For more information about Aurora Financial Strategies, please visit: https://www.aurorafinancialstrategies.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:35] Overview of Lovesac $LOVE and why are they so interesting to Austin

[5:44] Bear case: One product company + cheap knockoffs

[12:02] Repeat business / Crocs comparison / Reddit and TikTok Lovesac / Target customers

[21:27] Shark Ninja comparison

[26:09] Valuation / Competitive analysis (La-Z-Boy, Restoration Hardware)

[31:07] Inventory turns

[34:56] Short interest

[38:48] Management and insider ownership

[41:27] Barter revenues

[43:43] $LOVE final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

For more information about Oxy Capital, please visit: https://oxycapital.com/homepage/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge

[2:05] Overview of Gym Group $GYM.L and why it's interesting to Pedro

[9:09] Competitive analysis: Basic-Fit and PureGym

[18:00] Raising prices and margin expansion

[25:40] Replacement cost and margin of safety

[31:29] Discounting of membership in October 2022

[33:42] New CEO in Summer 2023

[37:29] Three-tier pricing membership

[41:14] Normalized earnings levels looks like and free cash flow

[53:18] EBITDA multiples

[56:35] Bear case on $GYM.L

[1:07:28] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge

You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/

Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in

Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo

For more information about Bireme Capital, please visit: https://www.biremecapital.com/

Evan's $BTI write-up in Bireme Capital's investor letter: https://www.biremecapital.com/blog/december-2023-investor-letter

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge

[2:04] Overview of British American Tobacco Company and why they are interesting to Evan

[6:42] What Evan thinks his edge is with $BTI / comments on stock performance over the last few months

[11:58] Vaping, regulations and how this affects $BTI

[18:38] $BTI annual report

[25:24] Competition from non-regulated folks / legal liabilities for new $BTI products / menthol cigarette ban

[34:00] Doom-looping on cigarette industry

[38:00] $BTI's ownership stake in ITC (formerly known as India Tobacco Company)

[43:43] "Sum of the Parts" stocks[51:07] $BTI capital allocation strategy

Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge

You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/

Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in

Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo

For more information about Alex Morris and subscribe to his research service, TSOH Investment Research Service, please visit: https://thescienceofhitting.com/ You can Follow Alex Morris on Twitter @TSOH_Investing: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing

"Letting Winners Run" article: https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/letting-winners-run

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:47] Letting winners run thesis

[6:23] Hindsight bias

[8:26] Cash flow considerations

[12:07] Selection bias

[14:36] Examples of the "Letting Winners Run" strategy (forever business vs. 5-year/20-year outlooks)

[18:55] How "Forever Business" in media has changed over the years

[21:46] Management

[26:07] Is there something unique about big tech

[29:08] Thesis drift + examples

[38:03] Knowing when to sell "forever business"

[41:56] "Beautiful Sunset" principle

[45:27] Dismissing banks an example of dismissing "letting winners run"

[51:06] Why "Best Ideas Funds" fall short

[53:40] Final thoughts and closing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/ Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:53] Anti-trust + Spirit decision

[9:00] Judge's decision in Spirit case + how antitrust lawyers reacted before and after the decision

[15:45] Future of anti-trust and mergers

[21:32] US Steel - Nippon

[28:33] Banks

[30:32] $LQDA

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Voss Capital, please visit: https://www.vosscap.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:30] What is $RCM and why are they interesting to Jon Hook

[3:47] Why tax is 4-6% (vs. 2% or 20%)

[6:20] Jon Hook's background

[8:50] $RCM elevator pitch

[15:43] $RCM going concerns: addressing short reports, challenging 2022, management change

[22:36] Sutter roll-out

[27:37] Network effects / competitive landscape

[32:32] Addressing add-backs, adjusted EBITDA

[37:10] Addressing stickiness of the business

[40:53] Providence acquisition and capital allocation strategy

[48:22] Final thoughts on $RCM short report

[52:11] Coder shortage

[54:31] Optum ($RCM largest competitor)

[58:33] $RCM final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information for Lake Cornelia Research Management and Judd Arnold, you can can Follow on Twitter/X @CorneliaLake: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge

[2:24] Offshore drilling space and $TDW update

[13:12] Offshore drilling space - market correction? and $VAL $RIG

[22:56] Why $VAL might not exercise options and Judd's newsletter explaining why $VAL should ($VAL ultimately did) + discussion on activism

[35:38] What's it going to take for $VAL to start working

[40:25] New build

[43:48] Petrobas risk?

[45:19] Macro risks: OPEC, Oil prices, geopolitics, US Election

[51:52] Gulf of Mexico

[55:48] What Judd is focused on; activism; reflecting on recent positions and lessons learned

Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge

You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/

Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in

Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo

To sign up for Fundamental Edge's Analyst Academy, use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount: https://www.fundamentedge.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge

[1:33] Brett's background and overview of Fundamental Edge

[6:34] What do pod shops look at when they're thinking about earnings season

[15:54] Fundamental stories

[20:31] Liquidity and market efficiency, small caps

[24:58] Pod shop strategies, stress tests, blow ups

[33:53] How interest rate environment affects the pod model

[37:45] Revenge of the small caps

[43:27] Going to work at smaller startup pods vs. larger pod shops

[47:49] Risk management

[51:03] Pod shop culture

Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge

You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/

Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in

Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo

You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/

Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in

Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo

Jim's book, "Zen of Thrift Conversions", available on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Zen-Thrift-Conversions-Hidden-Stocks/dp/B08KH3THCR?crid=1RO9I0CVP07JD&keywords=the+zen+of+thrift+conversions&qid=1704737642&sprefix=zen+of+thrift,aps,161&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=andrew613880e-20&linkId=aa5821380d1063911549c0014b02427a&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge

[1:49] The basics of "Thrift Conversions"

[8:51] Safety

[11:25] Management incentives

[15:46] How can investors participate in IPO of thrift conversions

[19:58] Needham

[23:50] Thrift Conversions in current banking environment

[27:26] Return on equities and repurchases

[35:39] Characteristics of poor de-mutualizations and thrift conversions

[39:14] Investor Activism

[45:08] Why thrift conversions sell during a given time frame and why some don't

[47:36] Worthwhile for investors to look at second step conversions (because so complicated)?

[51:00] Lightening round: why more mutuals in the Northeast than elsewhere? How much does geography matter?

[53:59] Three (3) interesting de-mutualizations to look at, according to Jim Royal

Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge

You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/

Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in

Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo

For more information about David Capital Partners, please visit: https://davidpartners.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:28] David Capital's background and investing philosophy

[7:07] Overview and history of Vistry Group $VTY.L + David Capital's background with $VTY.L and why Vistry is interesting to Adam

[18:39] Partnerships business - what is it?

[27:04] What is unique about Countryside's business model (Vistry's competitive moat)

[36:25] Why Adam thinks that Vistry's future growth is going to unlock, despite trading flatish for last 15 or so years

[43:10] What "Mixed Tenure Project" means

[48:02] Partner pushback?

[52:40] NPC comparison

[56:17] What breaks the Vistry thesis?[1:00:55] UK housing cycle - where are we at[1:06:02] Vistry valuation + growth prospects

[1:16:25] What is the sell-side missing[1:22:38] CEO comp package and newly appointed board directors[1:25:22] Vistry exposure amongst UK funds

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:46] Chris' thoughts, high level, for December 2023: merger arb

[2:44] Roivant $ROIV

[8:27] Immunovant, Inc. $IMVT

[13:44] Thoughts on $SAVE, antitrust, merger arb implications when government blocks M&A

[26:18] Views on 2024 and lessons learned from 2023

[36:23] CVRs

[42:55] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Greystone Capital Management, please visit: https://www.greystonevalue.com/

Sylogist write-up in Q1 2023 Letter: https://www.greystonevalue.com/_files/ugd/47fd79_4bc7a737390344ceb68d07367503b878.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:32] Overview of Sylogist (TSX: SYZ) and why Adam finds it interesting

[9:00] $SYZ.TO strategic review and why pivoted the way they did

[15:49] How $SYZ.TO has evolved over last few years

[18:31] How $SYZ.TO management team is incentivized

[21:41] How is $SYZ.TO beating larger competitors for business / how is transitioning from "on-premises" to cloud offering creating growth? / Pricing power

[30:11] Microsoft partnership

[34:28] Focus on nonprofit and government verticals; value proposition for these target customers / biggest competitor

[38:36] Nonprofit space / Government ERPs

[42:20] $SYZ.TO earnings, specifically on EBITDA

[49:01] Thoughts on what CEO meant when he said "We're stepping on the gas for growth in 2024" on the Q3 call

[52:36] $SYZ.TO valuation and final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Link to Kevin's $SPHR thesis: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_jGx22O8NWRlb8zZZmuqMwfa-Ae3Y55o/view

Twitter: https://twitter.com/KevinLMak

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:17] Sphere Entertainment Co. $SPHR and why it's interesting to Kevin

[3:36] Kevin's views on $MSGN and why that's relevant for $SPHR

[8:56] How Kevin values $SPHR

[15:20] More important from a revenue perspective: Residencies or Daily Airing of "Postcards"

[17:13] Sustainability of the movies at $SPHR / how much better is $SPHR than a quality IMAX?

[26:35] $SPHR customer demand

[29:10] $SPHR music residency economics / logistics / creating the buzz

[38:30] $SPHR customer draw as technology improves

[40:52] Outside revenue streams (ad revenue on outside of the Sphere) / cost to create an ad for the Sphere (Billboard comp) + economics of the Sphere

[47:51] Main difference between Kevin's $SPHR analysis and sell-side analyst targets

[49:58] Corporate governance and naming rights

[52:39] Capex

[56:04] Valuing the franchise model and pushback on multiple Sphere's - how do you find the right markets for Sphere + why did London turn down the Sphere

[1:03:25] Convertible debt / $SPHR valuation

[1:08:12] $SPHR final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Saber Capital Management, please visit: https://sabercapitalmgt.com/home/

Article from Base Hit Investing: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/munger-podcast-thoughts-retail-stocks

YAV blog post on retail: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/cyber-monday-thoughts-part-1-retail

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:55] What is an "inevitable retail winner" and Charlie Munger's thoughts on this

[10:19] Restaurants

[12:34] Various retail companies mentioned, are they "inevitable retail winners"; characteristics of "inevitability" - using AutoZone as an example as well

[22:09] Retail management and culture

[27:33] Floor & Decor $FND: what is their moat? / customer experience / why inventory is a moat

[38:55] Pro vs. DIY customer spend / comment on ROIC on new stores / does $FND want to own their own stores

[45:14] Macro impact on $FND?

[51:14] $FND valuation

[58:20] $FND described as a "category killer"

[1:00:21] $FND risks

[1:03:36] Any difference in $FND pre vs. post IPO + mistakes management made in the past

[1:07:16] Push back on $FND thesis: recent acquisitions and "category killer"

[1:11:32] Any other retails that John thinks has a chance to be inevitable or he thinks that a lot of investors talk about in this "inevitable" way

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Valorem Research and to subscribe, please visit: https://www.valoremresearch.com/ Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:44] General takeaways from Spirit / JetBlue post-trial and post-trial briefs

[7:56] DOJ's case, what citing of Philadelphia National and Baker Hughes cases as precedents means

[13:17] Harm to local markets - thoughts on this framework as it applies to the bear case

[16:04] JetBlue's "having it both ways" arguments and where Lionel thinks JetBlue scored points with their arguments

[23:21] 51 presumptive markets and how they are relevant to this case + the government's skepticism of divestitures

[33:20] How JetBlue and the government handled the expert witness, what deficiencies that JetBlue finds with the government witnesses

[39:39] Government's points regarding the hot docs

[42:40] How precedent being used to support both sides of the case

[50:03] Evidence supporting JetBlue's position and evidence supporting DOJ's position

[57:26] The fourth bear case on relevant markets

[1:03:35] Timing on ruling

[1:12:33] Legacy of the outcome for this case

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Far View Capital Management, please visit: https://www.farviewcapitalmgmt.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[3:11] Quick overview of Distribution Solutions Group $DSGR and why it's interesting to Brad

[4:40] Overall $DSGR setup, starting with rights offering

[7:07] $DSGR business overview (all three businesses), direct comps, competitive sales advantage, customer retention

[19:51] $DSGR transaction (LKCM involvement) and why do all three businesses belong together?

[29:23] $DSGR thesis and LKCM's history with specialty distributors

[36:20] $DSGR valuation, what type of organic growth would $DSGR show without future acquisition, how much of the industry is still in-house, roll-up strategy multiple

[46:00] Scaling $DSGR business, capital allocation and tail risks

[57:22] Scaled specialty distributor that has not worked

[1:01:11] Path to liquidity, management and LKCM alignment

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Lionel's LQDA write up: https://www.valoremresearch.com/p/lqda-v-uthr-premium-update

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:35] What was the $LQDA hearing recently on Monday, December 4, 2023, and Lionel's initial thoughts on the hearing

[6:16] Arguments UTHR was drilling down on

[10:14] How Lionel thinks of the quality of UTHR's arguments

[13:56] Judge performance and thoughts on their performance during the hearing

[27:00] Question from Judge for LQDA about dissemination of abstracts / would we have this problem of dissemination if that conference was in 2023 vs 2004

[37:26] Next steps post-hearing: reversal or remanding, if remanding (sending back to the PTAB court) - what is the most likely issue, if reversal - what is the most likely reason

[49:02] Odds on outcome of the $LQDA hearing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

ICLE Paper on Kroger / Albertson's merger: https://laweconcenter.org/icle-on-kroger-albertsons/

White paper: https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Kroger-Albertsons-Merger-Full-Paper.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:32] Overview of ICLE (International Center for Law & Economics) and Brian's background

[3:12] Kroger / Albertson's merger - how Brian is thinking about this potential merger

[6:55] FTC's analytical framework

[10:58] Why government hasn't brought more suits in grocery industry

[14:34] Should precedent be updated?

[24:05] Why shouldn't market shares matter?

[28:30] How have delivery services changed the market index & wrap-up on wholesale clubs, competition

[33:05] Divestitures

[39:26] Specific divestiture package - Haggen's example

[46:20] Waterbed effect - why this is or isn't an antitrust concern

[51:44] Regional power vs. local power with retail workers

[59:01] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #204, Michael's first appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:41] Update since half-time report: overall thoughts on trial now that we have had closing arguments - $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial

[3:55] $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial closing arguments

[11:04] Feel for how Judge is likely to craft opinion on the case

[14:20] Potential additional remedies to get merger over the hurdle

[17:02] Market definition and timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers)

[23:41] Step 3: the burden of proof from the DOJ, showing there is harm to consumers

[24:32] Cont'd: timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers

[27:51] United Airlines testimony

[35:03] Commentary on Spirit's survivability if merger doesn't go through

[41:38] JetBlue's second expert witness

[43:43] Dr. Chipley's testimony

[45:54] Closing arguments cont'd: competition be preserved

[48:02] Closing arguments cont'd: balance of nationwide benefit vs. local harm

[52:28] Main divergence of opinion based on being in the courtroom

[56:52] Hot docs

[59:05] Odds of merger going through closes vs. failing vs. re-pricing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Jeremy Raper and Raper Capital, please visit: https://rapercapital.com/

Jeremy's Letter to $BRAG management: https://rapercapital.com/2023/11/22/an-open-letter-to-the-chair-of-the-board-of-bragg-gaming-group/ Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:55] Jeremy's Letter to the Board of Bragg Gaming $BRAG; company/thesis background and why Jeremy wrote and sent the letter

[17:20] Who is the right buyer for $BRAG?

[24:51] $BRAG financing in September 2022

[31:14] $BRAG CEO and management performance

[37:55] $BRAG final thoughts

[38:35] Jeremy's take on Spirit / JetBlue trial

[44:13] How Spirit / JetBlue trial compares to Twitter / Elon case

[47:23] Spirit / JetBlue bear case

[50:10] How Spirit / JetBlue case affects Hawaiian Airlines and Alaskan Airlines merger

[54:11] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/

Chapters:

[1:25] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[3:03] Idea/inspiration for launching Yet Another Value Podcast

[5:56] 5% that is not "Podcast Andrew"

[7:10] YAVP format - how Andrew got to this podcast format

[10:56] Sourcing guests

[18:07] Interview preparation process

[26:29] Interviewer inspiration and how Andrew's interview style have evolved

[30:14] Striking a balance between leading guests too much vs. letting guests go on their own paths

[32:07] What makes a stock pitch stand out? Good stock idea vs. good stock pitch

[36:55] How has being a podcast host made Andrew a better investor?

[39:37] Andrew's investment style and philosophy

[42:42] How many ideas did Andrew end up investing in post-publishing a podcast

[45:02] What Andrew has learned about building a network, a community and connecting with people from the podcast

[47:41] Three people in the world Andrew wants to have on the podcast and the funniest moment thus far

[53:28] Three companies that Andrew would like to see discussed on the podcast

[55:59] Where does Andrew want to see the podcast go

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #197 with Lionel Hutz: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lionel-hutz-breaks-down-the-jetblue Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:38] Michael's overview of the $SAVE / $JBLU trial as the trial has commenced

[14:47] How $SAVE / $JBLU case compared to Spectrum Brands trial

[16:20] Judge for the $SAVE / $JBLU trial

[19:52] Divestitures

[22:50] Anti-competitive arguments

[26:27] Spirit "Hot Docs" (Hot Documents)

[29:02] "Flailing Firm" defense

[35:28] Spirit stock performance since the trial started

[39:41] Head of Network

[42:31] Government "Hot Docs"

[45:32] Market Definition

[49:55] Additional takeaways from $SAVE / $JBLU case - government's focus on $SAVE's business model and testimonies on the fluidity of this industry

[51:32] Odds of DOJ winning vs. $JBLU winning

[54:26] What makes Michael think that this case isn't a coin flip in $JBLU's favor

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:22] What is on Chris' mind this month: merger arb, closed-end fund, failed biotech, Liberty Day

[3:42] How Chris is thinking about biotech companies right now

[6:24] Problems in biotech, but is there opportunities?

[10:36] Closed-end funds

[14:04] Big spread arbitrage

[22:10] Albertson's / Kroger merger case

[33:15] Predictions for Liberty Day

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Subscribe to the Boyar Research Substack here: https://boyarresearch.substack.com/

You can Follow Boyar Research on Twitter/X here: https://twitter.com/BoyarValue

$MODG write-up: https://boyarresearch.substack.com/p/a-company-thats-growing-its-entire

Chapters: [0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:42] Topgolf Callaway Brands $MODG and why its interesting

[3:57] Why $MODG is clearly a "Topgolf" story? And, what is Topgolf

[12:05] Land grab for opening new "Topgolf" or competitive stores

[15:00] What Jon thinks people are so worried about Topgolf

[18:06] Topgolf pushback: financing new stores

[22:17] Would it be better to separate Topgolf and Callaway?

[24:42] Topgolf advertising revenue stream and what is the company referring to when they say they are "maximizing economics" of the business (PEI system)

[29:30] KPIs the company tracks

[33:50] $MODG valuation

[39:04] "Toptracer" part of the business

[41:22] Pressure on $MODG stock; what keeps Jon up at night about the idea and various upside scenarios

[46:36] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Value Punks article on Japanese Trading Companies: https://valuepunks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-japanese-trading-companies

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:26] History of the Japanese trading companies and Warren Buffett

[6:59] Why trading so important in Japanese economy

[12:37] Why Buffett made his first investment in Japan

[22:23] Breaking down of Sogo Shosha (Japanese Trading Companies)

[26:38] Why Buffett holding his investment despite run-up

[28:21] Examples of corporate governance and capital allocation changes that Japanese trading companies specifically made to improve them

[37:54] Overview of the basket of 7 Japanese Trading Companies, and what Daye thinks is the most interesting/exciting; difference between tier one, tier two and tier three players, and how would Daye label the 5 companies Buffett invested in (Tier 1-3)

[43:16] Geopolitical reasons folks interested in Japan

[47:13] ESG in Japan

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Rhizome Partners, please visit: http://rhizomepartners.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:38] Discrepancy between publicly-traded real estate and private market value / what's going on in REITs

[4:27] How does current Real Estate environment relate to similar historical periods

[9:26] Bill Chen's current real estate thesis

[13:58] Liquidation premium and where we are in the real estate cycle

[22:43] Public market trades below the private market - why shouldn't public market real estate trade for discount to private market?

[26:45] Real estate diversification, geographic risk and tax breaks

[38:38] Running apartments buildings net debt

[43:25] How to finance a distress cycle and capital allocation strategies during this time

[52:51] Why invest in real estate vs. (for lack of a better term) a lot of other stuff right now

[1:01:21] Why Bill Chen thinks this opportunity exists right now in publicly traded real estate

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Harris' write-up: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wAm1w3eEZCHCfY-e1Lzu0gvyGW7uN4KL/view

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:46] Overview of Seneca Foods $SENEA and why its interesting

[6:22] Asset value / LIFO accounting

[14:24] Why $SENEA isn't the ultra-commodity terrible business most people associate with canned vegetables?

[22:36] Canned vegetables industry

[24:46] $SENEA corporate history and background

[31:38] What happened with $SENEA from 2021-2023, specifically with inflation

[36:16] $SENEA understanding downside risks, specifically regarding insider control, governance, debt

[44:12] Investing in capital expenditures - expand Del Monte capacity

[46:48] How Harris thinks $SENEA thesis will play out

[48:41] Private label trend

[53:37] $SENEA competitive analysis

[57:09] Recent $SENEA financial performance

[1:00:40] Final thoughts on $SENEA

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:49] What's been going on - September 2023: update on antitrust cases and valuing the deals

[8:45] Large mergers/acquisitions and how to better understand why firms choose the paths they do

[14:09] Sculptor Capital Management bid

[17:25] Best case for shareholder activism and natural corporate defense of smallness

[20:48] Amazon FTC case

[30:22] Amazon iRobot

[35:30] FTC being aggressive bringing losing cases

[38:58] Final thoughts for September 2023: oil and gas, thoughts on the space overall

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Lionel's JetBlue/Spirit write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/in-the-spirit-of-competition

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:48] What is so interesting about the JetBlue / Spirit DOJ case

[4:18] JetBlue / Spirit merger saga - background

[11:34] Why is the "Northeast Alliance" relevant

[20:26] DOJ case - "Route Pair Analysis" / "Local Market Pairs

[27:06] Airline market / thoughts on divestitures

[32:44] DOJ argument about relevant markets

[44:03] Hurdles for DOJ to show anti-competitive effects

[47:15] Notion of "Hot Docs" and their relevance to the trial

[54:07] Judge for this case, his background and why this matters

[59:08] Consensus around JetBlue's paying a huge premium for Spirit. Why doesn't JetBlue just walk?

[1:06:34] Department of Transportation joined the DOJ to block the merger - what this means?

[1:14:12] Trial scheduled to start October 16, could there be a settlement between now and then?

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

For more information about Grizzly Rock Capital, please visit: https://www.grizzlyrockcapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:47] Who is Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ: GSM) and why are they interesting?

[3:39] $GSM valuation

[7:52] What Grizzly Rock Capital thinks the market is misunderstanding about $GSM

[10:51] Global supply / demand curve for silicon metal in China + IRA demand

[17:51] How much of $GSM earnings come from solar currently

[20:01] Evaluating $GSM on an asset valuation basis

[23:53] Management evaluation and semi-controlling shareholder / long term vision

[29:40] Capital allocation strategy

[32:52] Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and solar demand

[35:49] Plants coming online in North America and how that affects $GSM

[38:38] Outlook on European assets

[40:56] Licensing off EV patents and maintenance capex

[44:57] How Grizzly Rock Capital looking at 2024 earnings

[47:15] Bridging the gap of Grizzly Rock Capital's 2024 expectations vs. $GSM historical performance

[53:14] $GSM final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit https://www.alpha-sense.com/solutions/financial-services/ today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/

Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0

Artem's second appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/OIFGrfx1O88

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:41] Burford won the case - quick overview of the case and how we arrived at this final judgement

[15:15] Enforcement and collection

[28:55] Examples of collection efforts

[33:14] Timing of enforcement and potential settlement payouts

[44:02] Tax implications

[54:22] Why hasn't $BUR management answered the question about whether any of the funds they manage bought YPF?

[1:03:35] $BUR core business

[1:14:04] $BUR asset management business model / recent results / management and employee incentives

[1:28:26] $BUR valuation without YPF included

[1:39:38] ROE on the core business on a per share basis and final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

For more information about Conor Maguire and Value Situations Substack: https://valuesits.substack.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:41] Overview and investing thesis on Marlowe plc (LSE: MRL

[13:49] $MRL's TIC segment - what is the catalyst here

[18:11] Potential bidders for TIC segment

[25:12] Management incentives

[30:58] Marlowe $MRL.L bear case

[40:58] FCF and $MRL.L moving forward

[47:24] Risk factors / what worries Conor about $MRL.L

[53:09] How does $MRL.L thesis fit Conor's overall investing framework?

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:43] What's been going on - August 2023; starting with FTC in general

[7:12] State of the FTC, Anti-trust

[11:16] Horizon/Amgen case

[17:30] Deep dive into CVRs

[29:42] Can CVRs present a little risk adjusted alpha?

[35:29] Microsoft / Activision deal

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Check out his first appearance on YAVP laying out his $LW thesis (December 2022): https://youtu.be/lNY8sQVttks

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:24] Update on Lamb Weston Holdings $LW since AJ's last appearance on YAVP in December 2022; how the stock has performed / fundamental issues

[5:44] $LW recent conference call: French fry attachment rate and why it matters / inventory destocking

[13:07] Current valuation for $LW and justifying AJ's $7 EPS thesis / key drivers of value

[20:30] Gross margins and SG&A expenses

[23:45] Expectations from the $LW investor day / should they be doing an investor day?

[31:43] Buybacks

[34:18] $LW final thoughts / bear case?

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

For more information about Choice Equities Capital Management, please visit: https://choice-equities.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:36] What is $CROX, why is it interesting to Mitchell and $CROX growth story

[4:50] What is Jibbitz, patent protection on the product and consumer trends using the product

[8:22] $CROX valuation

[12:16] $CROX bear case and response

[16:44] Why aren't there more Crocs knock-offs

[17:40] Is $CROX just a COVID beneficiary and Crocs brand power

[22:01] Crocs core customer and fashion/age out risk

[25:04] HEYDUDE acquisition, go-forward with management's strategy around the brand, average customer of HEYDUDE shoes, knock off problem and why would one need multiple pairs of them

[34:19] How do overcome the bears $CROX worry that Crocs (and other brands $CROX owns) turns out to be a fad

[38:45] Why is $CROX the best buyer and owner of HEYDUDE?

[41:00] Endgame for $CROX / apparel line in the future?

[44:17] Final thoughts on $CROX: shifting HEYDUDE wholesale channel, worry about inventory buildup and this year's earnings

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/