Arezki on Africa: In Case you Missed it

2024 should be a record election year for Africa. Twenty countries, accounting for 346 million voters will be called to participate to elections that will mostly be rigged and decided in advance. In this podcast, Arezki Daoud argues that African elections have no democratic content and standards in them.

Different factors and actors have a more direct impact on the political systems in those countries. Among the factors cited by MondAfrique is the predominant role of the military in several countries like Mali, Niger and Guinea, the strength of traditional tribal structures, the rise of Islamic values favoring tradition over the law or finally the impact of Vladimir Putin among many African heads of state, factors that naturally clash with Western democratic values.

Visit: https://north-africa.com/series/africa-2024-elections/ to follow Africa's 2024 elections.

Has the war in #Ukraine deter #Russia from engagement in #Africa? Certainly not! We know that on the #security front, a growing number of #African states are turning to Russia to supply them with #military equipment and security services, judging by the presence of official and non-government outfits like the #Wagner Group. Things are evolving very rapidly on that front in 2023 and weapons sales to Africa are likely to further increase this year, despite Russia needing all the military hardware it can procure to execute its war on Ukraine. But many analysts have dismissed Russia as an economic partner for Africa. Perhaps that’s not necessarily true.

#Russia’s influence in the #Sahel is about to expand further with more cooperation deals announced by #Niger and Russia during the ongoing visit to #Moscow of Niger’s Prime Minister and other senior officials. Speaking to Russian media, Niger’s Defense Minister Salifou Mody said joint projects are being finalized during the visit, following months of preparation and negotiation in #Niamey. Mody even hinted on an increase presence of Russian assets as being part of a cooperation plan tying the two countries.

The #US and the #UK hitting #Houthi targets in #Yemen is largely the result of a sense of panic taking place in commercial and business circles. The #Houthis have clearly identified that there is a choke point that they can squeeze even more to get their positions heard. And what is happening up north, is certainly alarming not only for shipping companies and their clients, but for #Egypt and those who invested on the #Suez Canal.

In this podcast, Arezki Daoud gives an overview of ongoing problems in #Egypt and what we should expect in 2024.

#Christmas in #Africa this year has been gloomy to say the least. There was not much to cheer for. The political, economic, social and security environments in many #African nations have been experiencing the worst-case scenario, so much so that 2024 is likely to bring more bad news for millions of people. While the end of the Covid19 pandemic brought hope of return to some normalcy and pave the way for recovery, economic woes, violence, a degraded environment, and political leaders unable to solve problems, were compounded by the impacts from the wars in #Ukraine and in the #MiddleEast to make the lives of millions miserable and the outlook does not bode well. As we enter 2024, we see that Africa continues to be ravaged by persistent zones of armed conflict. Troubles are everywhere from the #DRCongo, with its chaotic presidential election held on the 20th of December, to #Sudan, #Mozambique and so many other places. Of course, the #Sahel is where all the problems seem to pile up at once. What are the latest developments in the Sahel that could point as to how 2024 will evolve?

Rising Storms: The Pact Uniting #Mali, #Burkina Faso, and #Niger Against #Jihadists and Isolation: In this brief, #ArezkiDaoud of #MEARisk and the #NorthAfricaJournal addresses the challenges facing the new alliance formed by the three troubled #Sahel nations.

#Nigeria: Is President Bola #Tinubu headed the wrong way? After being elected president in early 2023, #Nigeria's #Bola #Tinubu decided to cancel fuel #subsidies, setting the stage for a deterioration of prices across the board. For now, #Nigerians are experiencing high prices, high inflation, a weak currency, with #labor unions threatening to strike.

In this podcast, Arezki gives an overview of ongoing problems in #Egypt and what we should expect in 2024.

The unfolding #environmental disaster with major #floods that are taking place in eastern #Libya, may be of #biblical proportion and the death toll there can surpass that of #Morocco and by far. Arezki Daoud provide a brief update of this big #disaster.

#Sahel: #Mali's new #constitution paves the way for more instability ahead. The Tuareg community in northern Mali has rejected the latest constitutional referendum imposed by the ruling military junta in #Bamako, while conservative clerics decry the mention of Mali as a #secular nation. #ArezkiDaoud of #MEARisk and the #NorthAfricaJournal sees no good news in this latest development.

Saudi Arabia has been making big moves lately. A detente with Iran, a re-engagement with Syria, a potential diplomatic path to solve the Yemeni crisis and more. Domestically, its top leader Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), has been pushing for deep reforms that required the neutralizing of the ultra-conservatives. In this unscripted chat, MEA Risk's Arezki Daoud speaks with Gulf State Analytics' Giorgio Cafiero to understand these big changes, which could have ripple effects around the world.

Latest big geopolitical issues affecting North Africa as of 10 June 2023. Podcast is hosted by Arezki Daoud and focuses on the five of North Africa, namely Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.

Foreign meddling may have been even more troubling than any other source of instability. Governments in Russia, the UAE, France, Turkey, etc.. have been central in preventing the Libyans from negotiating a future that works for them. But Arezki Daoud argues that the shifting global geopolitics over the recent months may provide an opportunity for the Libyans to begin the real negotiations and step away from violence.

Welcome to this episode of North Africa and the Sahel week-in-review, for the period ending Saturday, 20th of May. Today is the 22nd of May and greetings to all. So the week in the northern half of Africa ended with a lot of political tension in the Maghreb region, consisting of countries located along the southern Mediterranean coastline, and both political stress and physical violence in the Sahel region. In this podcast, Arezki Daoud goes through the major events affecting the northern half of Africa during the week ending 20 May 2023.

In the post-Gaddafi era, Corruption in Libya is endemic and metastasized. The culture of corruption is so ubiquitous and widespread that Transparency International ranks Libya third before last in the MENA region, doing only better than Syria and Yemen. In this podcast, Arezki looks at how the Gaddafi clan has siphoned off billions of dollars and that the current governments may have made corruption even worse.

In this podcast, Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk and of The North Africa Journal, reports on his thoughts on South Africa, after a 10-day visit in April 2023.

In this audio podcast, Arezki Daoud is sharing an update on the situation in the Sahel, specifically in Mali and Burkina Faso, two countries that have been torn apart by outside forces, be they the Jihadists, or some western powers, and now by the Wagner Group, a mercenary group that represents Russia. Arezki addresses the two most visible issues the Sahel faces on the security front and concludes with a third wildcard factor.

Welcome to this week-in-review episode where we look at some of the key  events affecting the geopolitics of North Africa and the Sahel. Your  host in Arezki Daoud, principal analyst at MEA Risk LLC and editor of  The North Africa Journal.  In the Sahel, the general state of  insecurity, as well as the atmosphere of transition due to the take over  of power by military juntas, have had a dominant play in the Sahelian  context. In North Africa, the dominant story may very well be Tunisia,  with the president there increasing his control of the government,  expanding assaults on human rights and making mistakes that could cost  Tunisia billions in lost loan opportunities.

Greetings to our second episode of Week in Review and a quick summary of what we are tracking in the Sahel and in North Africa. Today is Saturday, the 7th of January 2023. This past week was somewhat subdued in the region largely due to the year-end holiday season and the shift to 2023. But events don’t stop simply because it is new year. Arezki Daoud of MEA RIsk LLC presents to you the big stories of the week, which include that of an unfolding emigration crisis in the Mediterranean Sea. 

In this week's review of events in the Sahel and North Africa, Arezki Daoud addresses the major factors affecting the region as the year draws to an end.

This podcast hosted by Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk LLC focuses on some of the most important events in North Africa and the Sahel that we are monitoring as of Friday, 23rd of December 2022. So this is a sort of week in review. This week was dominated by a couple of big events, the first is the political stalemate in Tunisia, and the second is about the collapse of the peace deal that was signed some 7 years ago by the government of Mali and rebel groups in the north. Each of these events are harbingers of more problems ahead.

Winter is near and Europe is facing an energy crisis after Russian  attacked Ukraine. The EU and its member-countries have been looking for  natural gas everywhere they can but the prospect of replacing Russian  gas supplies on short notice will be difficult. Can Algeria and Africa  fill the gap? In this podcast, Arezki Daoud argues that a short  contribution from Africa will not be possible, but the longer term feels  more optimistic.

The Maghreb’s biggest nations and regional rivals, Algeria, and Morocco,  so far have refrained from choosing a side in the Russian-Ukrainian  conflict. For its part, Tunisia has had ambivalent positions due to a  number of factors, which we will cover in a moment. In general, though,  these nations have had no intention on openly support one or the other  party in the conflict and have assumed some neutrality based on multiple  geopolitical factors. Broadly speaking and setting aside Ukraine as a  sovereign nation, North African states see this conflict as one that  opposes Russia, an extension of what used to be the Soviet Union,  against the West, a group of nations that encompasses Western Europe and  the United States. In some way, they see the conflict as the  continuation of the cold war that pitted the USSR to the USA. Other  major factors, such as North Africa’s proximity to and neighborhood with  western Europe, the developing gas market, Russia’s military weight and  its growing economic influence on the region are among the many factors  that have been weighing on decision makers in North Africa on how to  deal with this thorny conflict.

The visit of President Emmanuel Macron to Algiers at the end of August  shook up and challenged the Algerian authorities in their once again  excellent relations with Russia. The French security and ministerial  deployment that accompanied the trip of the French president and the  most recent visit of a delegation of 16 French ministers to Algiers, was  intended to solicit Algerian help to stop the Russian advance in the  Sahel and West Africa and its deployment in Mali. And that’s how  competition between Paris and Moscow on the heart and soul of Algeria  has been intensifying.

The past months have been particularly horrendous for Lebanon, a country that used to be called the Switzerland of the Arab World. The demise of Lebanon is not only a reflection of a deeply corrupt regime and a divided nation, but it is also synonymous of an Arab world where its leaders have no concept of solidarity. In this 8-minute podcast, Arezki shares his views on the current turmoil facing Lebanon.

The Sahelian nation of Burkina Faso has been a powder keg for some time  and this weekend, the coup leader that toppled the previous government  has been himself toppled by another coup. The situation in Burkina’s  capital, Ouagadougou, has been extremely tense lately, with protesters  attempting to raid the French embassy there, as France remains highly  unpopular due to its policies in its former colonies. On Friday, 30th of  September 2022, the security crisis in Burkina Faso spiraled out of  control when low-ranking military officers announced their toppling of  the junta leader, Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba. In this brief podcast, MEA  Risk and The North Africa Journal's Arezki Daoud analyzes the current  situation in Burkina and provides a brief outlook.

The escalating rivalry between Algeria and Morocco has had a  destabilizing effect on the Maghreb region of North Africa. In fact, the  entire western Mediterranean region is feeling the impact of the two  countries’ strange competitive postures. Instead of cooperating to  improve the living standards of their populations, the two countries  have created a toxic environment in the Mediterranean allowing human  smuggling, illegal emigration and drug trafficking to overwhelm parts of  southern Europe, to say the least. In this podcast, Arezki Daoud,  principal analyst at MEA Risk LLC and Editor of The North Africa Journal  unpacks some of the realities surrounding the competition between  Algeria and Morocco for the influence of the Maghreb region.

The year 2021 was a horrendous period for the region. All the problems that one can imagine were there, from the massacre of civilians to two military coups in Mali and of course, an aggressive expansion of the jihadist groups.  Early last year saw the massacre of more than 100 people in two villages of northwestern Niger, in an area bordering Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.  The targeting of civilians is now so intense that more civilians were killed than soldiers. Between January and November 2021, no fewer than 600 civilians in Niger were slaughtered in terrorist attacks, mainly conducted by an Islamic State offshoot. The figures of this year's killings are shilling: 200 people were killed in March in a single operation in the Tahoua region, in northwestern Niger. Another 160 civilians were killed in June in the village of Solhan, northeastern Burkina Faso.

In this podcast, MEA Risk analyst and editor of The North Africa Journal, Arezki Daoud, address the Sahel's descent to chaos as we start the year 2022.

Tunisia Revisited: MEA Risk analyst Arezki Daoud reviews where Tunisia stands as of November 2021 in the areas of social and economic development.

There has been unusual interest in the west about the political  crisis engulfing Tunisia this week. Naturally Tunisia was always seen  the cradle of the Jasmin Revolution, and the nation that showed the best  prospect of democratization. But this week, the president froze the  parliament for one month and dismissed the prime minister, moves that  were greeted with great jubilation by a large swath of the Tunisian  population, but also seen by many, including some foreign observers as  steps to kill the prospect of democracy in the country.

This week (ending 21 January 2021), Tunisia made the front pages of global media with Tunisians clashing with security forces over the past days to complain about their living conditions. The riots, which are still underway, have been taking place in several regions, concentrating largely on disadvantaged areas and neighborhoods.  In Morocco, the detention of thousands of suspects awaiting trial is clear evidence of a regime that has no interest in upholding its human rights obligations. In Algeria, the situation is even worse as the regime continues to harass activists, opposition politicians and Hirak militants. Egypt is probably the worst human rights offender in the North Africa region. This week marks the anniversary of the demonstrations in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, which broke out on 25 January 2011, and which toppled another Arab tyrant Hosni Mubarak. This is a podcast by Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk LLC and Editor of The North Africa Journal.

Tunisia is a boiling cauldron. It is certain that the Covid-19 epidemic is having a drastic impact on the country on many fronts.  But the system put in place after the 2011 Jasmine Revolution, which was praised around the world as paving the way for the first democracy in the Arab world, has simply stalled. While the economy is facing unprecedented challenges, the very negative effects of such challenges could bring to power not only the Islamo-conservative movement that already attempted to govern in 2011 and failed, but also the party that ruled under dictator Ben Ali, both of which are a bad idea for Tunisia.

In this brief podcast recorded on 12 November 2020, MEA Risk's Arezki Daoud provided an update on the Coronavirus in the Maghreb region. The state of the Covid-19 epidemic in the Maghreb looks rather bleak as we are reaching the mid-point of November 2020.  As in during the Spanish flu pandemic, the Covid-19 virus is back with a vengeance in what could be a second wave. Newspapers in 1919 reported very similar patterns, whereby a second wave in fall and winter turned out to be deadlier than when the pandemic was confirmed in early 1918. Here is a quick snapshot of Maghreb countries as of 12 November 2020.

In this brief, Arezki Daoud is reacting to the results of the referendum for a new constitution in Algeria, Which was reported to have had less-than 24% turnout on Monday, November 2, 2020. This is a bad week for the Algerian regime, which should brace for a disastrous 2021.