Episode 67 previews starting pitchers going after 230 in ADP (from Alex Wood to Adam Wainwright), including each pitcher’s projection, their dollar valuation compared to their ADP, what I expect from them in 2019, and whether I think they’re worth a late-round flyer in drafts. You can follow me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 66 previews the first 60+ starting pitchers, including each pitcher’s projection, their dollar valuation compared to their ADP, what I expect from them in 2019, and where they rank in my starting pitcher rankings. You can follow me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 65 previews the closer position with Brian Slack of Baseball HQ. We looked at all of the top closers and not so top closers, including each player’s projection, their long-term and recent skill profiles and whether we think they can contribute to your team. You can follow Brian on Twitter @that_glg20. You can follow me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 64 is an epic preview of the OF position with Bubba Entrekin of the Benched with Bubba podcast. We looked at the top 90+ OF eligible player’s projections, their dollar valuation compared to their ADP, and where they can contribute to your team to determine who to target and where. OF has some nice pockets of value, if you play your cards right. You can follow Bubba on Twitter @bdentrek and his podcast Benched with Bubba is available on iTunes and other podcast platforms. You can also find his work at https://fantasysportsdegens.com. You can follow me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 63 previews the 3B position, which thins out pretty quickly with a few values late for corner infielders. I look at the top 30+ 3B eligible player’s projection, their dollar valuation compared to their ADP, and where they can contribute to your team to determine who to target and where. You can follow me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 62 previews the SS position, a fairly deep position that offers a number of options for team construction and my favorite three-player pocket of value in all 2019 positions. I look at the top 30+ SS eligible player’s projection, their dollar valuation compared to their ADP, and where they can contribute to your team to determine who to target and where. You can follow me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 61 previews the second base position, a top-heavy position without much value. I look at the top 30+ second-base eligible player’s projection, their dollar valuation compared to their ADP, and where they can contribute to your team to determine who to target and where. I also discuss the TGFBI Champions League draft, which has seen ADP go out the window and very little value on the board. You can follow me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 60 wraps up the 1B preview with a look at first basemen going after pick 240. I look at each player’s projection, their dollar valuation compared to their ADP, and where they can contribute to your team to determine who to target and where. I also give a Reach Charles! shoutout to Justin Mason (Twitter: @JustinMasonFWFB) for convening The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI), now in Year 2. I also discuss my strategy and top 4 picks from Day 1 of TGFBI. You can follow me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 59 looks at the first half of the first base position. Which players look like values at their ADP? Who doesn’t? I look at each player’s projection, their dollar valuation compared to their ADP, and where they can contribute to your team to determine who to target and where. Let’s dive into the numbers.
Episode 58 recaps the Bay Area Roto Fantasy (BARF) League live draft from earlier today at The Wreck Room in San Francisco. Recorded on the drive home, I discuss my strategy heading into the 5x5 (OBP/QS) league and how the categories impacted my picks and valuation of players. Players discussed: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer, Anthony Rizzo, Xander Bogaerts, Joey Gallo, Tommy Pham, Aaron Hicks, Travis Shaw, Andrew McCutchen, Brad Hand, Yoan Moncada, Yadier Molina, Joe Musgrove, Jake Bauers, Max Kepler, Reynaldo Lopez, Steven Souza, Mike Minor, Steven Matz, Cedric Mullins, Randal Grichuk, Matt Harvey, Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Keston Hiura, and Jose Urena. You can reach me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 57 profiles Royals 2B Adalberto Mondesi, Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers and Rockies rookie 2B/SS Garrett Hampson. I also give a shoutout to Jeff Zimmerman (Twitter: @jeffwzimmerman) for the incredible content he’s produced and continues to produce. Can Mondesi live up to the hype (and his ADP)? Is this the year Devers breaks out? Will Hampson and his speed return value at his late ADP or will the Rockies jerk him around like other top prospects? Let’s dig into the numbers! Topics discussed: Adalberto Mondesi (6:17), Rafael Devers (35:53), Garrett Hampson (48:31) and Reach Charles (1:02:10). You can find me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 56 takes a look at the wasteland that is catcher in the year 2019 in an attempt to find value at the position. For each catcher, I break down their projection, ADP, and $ valuation to identify oases of opportunity (how’s that for a metaphor?) in the catcher market. I also provide numerical rankings and discuss strategy at the position in the context of building you team. You can reach me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 55 features an interview with fantasy baseball analyst and author Jason Johnson (@y2trips) of FantasyPros and understandingfantasybaseball.com. We discuss his personal projection system, its strengths and weaknesses, and he provides insight into his process and considerations in building it out. We also talk about three hitters he likes as values at their current ADP (Peraza, Rosario and Olson) and three he doesn’t (Albies, Realmuto and Donaldson). Enjoy!
Episode 54 profiles Mariners OF and speedster Mallex Smith, Pirates SP Joe Musgrove and Giants SP Dereck Rodriguez. I also give a shout-out to the new Baseball Savant website makeover. Can Smith build off his career year in 2018? Will Musgrove take a giant leap forward? Do Rodriguez’s skills support his rookie year productions? Let’s dive into the numbers. Topics discussed: Mallex Smith (5:59), Joe Musgrove (19:51), Dereck Rodriguez (35:45), and the new Baseball Savant website makeover (48:49). You can reach me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 53 profiles Cubs 3B/OF Ian Happ, Indians SP Shane Bieber, Diamondbacks closer Archie Bradley and A’s 3B/SS/2B Jurickson Profar. I also give props to Alex Chamberlain (@dolphhauldhagen on Twitter) for his recent pitch type summary article for 2018. Can Happ make enough contact to succeed? Can Bieber limit the quality of contact hitters are making? Will Bradley’s take the closer job and run with it? Is Profar worth his Top 150 ADP? Let’s dive into the numbers to find out. Topics discussed: Ian Happ (3:34), Shane Bieber (19:52), Archie Bradley (39:28), Jurickson Profar (49:42) and Pitch Splits Summary (1:01:23).
Episode 52 profiles Nationals 1B Ryan Zimmerman, Padres OF Manuel Margot and Angels 3B Taylor Ward. In the Reach Charles! segment, I interview Andrew Matney for his perspective on Reach Charles! and the Mets offseason. Does Zimmerman still have his 2017 power? Will Margot finally break out? Was Ward unlucky in his 40 game MLB debut? Let’s dive into the numbers. Topics discussed: Ryan Zimmerman (4:10), Manuel Margot (15:21), Taylor Ward (30:50) and Andrew Matney interview (40:20). You can reach me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 51 profiles Padres OF Hunter Renfroe, Cardinals 1B/OF/DH Jose Martinez and Rangers SP Mike Minor. I also give a shout-out to Tanner Bell (Twitter: @smartfantasybb) in a Reach Charles! segment for the automated Standing Gain Points spreadsheet he just released. Can Renfroe carry over his hot second half into 2019? Will Martinez get enough playing time to help fantasy owners? Can Minor turn some really great tools into really great performance? Let’s dive into the numbers! Topics discussed: Hunter Renfroe (3:56), Jose Martinez (17:38), Mike Minor (29:28) and automated SGP spreadsheet (43:33). You can reach me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 50 profiles Mets OF Michael Conforto, A’s 3B and Defensive Player of the Year Matt Chapman and Indians SP Trevor Bauer (same segment as Episode 35). I also discuss some strategy and considerations for people playing in non-trade leagues. Will Conforto continue his scintillating second half? Have we seen the best of Chapman? Will Bauer repeat his 2018 breakout? Let’s dig into the numbers. Topics discussed: Matt Chapman (3:45), Michael Conforto (19:07), Trevor Bauer (34:26) and non-trade league strategy (1:00:10). On Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 49 profiles Brewers 1B Jesus Aguilar, White Sox 1B Jose Abreu and Yankees C Gary Sanchez. I also touch on some starting pitchers with late ADPs I like and my process for identifying them. Can Aguilar be the Brewers savior once again (sorry, couldn’t help myself)? Will Abreu and Sanchez rebound after disappointing, injury-riddled seasons? Let’s dive into the numbers. Topics discussed: Jesus Aguilar (5:33), Jose Abreu (21:02), Gary Sanchez (32:06) and late ADP starting pitchers (45:36).
Episode 48 of the podcast is a little different. I took a hiatus from fantasy baseball research, analysis and strategy to interview my brother, Ethan, about his non-profit, Keep Playing Baseball (Twitter: @KeepPlayingBB). As the end of the year approaches and folks consider end-of-year donations to their favorite non-profit 501c3 charities, I thought it would be fun to interview him about the great work he’s doing to make college baseball accessible to high school players. I hope you enjoy the interview and, if you’re interested in donating to support their work after learning more, you can do so at keepplayingbaseball.org/donate. Thanks for listening, happy holidays and happy new year!
Episode 47 profiles Nats 3B Anthony Rendon, Tigers OF Nick Castellanos and Dodgers SP Walker Buehler. I also give the Reach Charles! Treatment to Smada’s (Twitter: @smada_bb) new creation, minor league rolling average graphs (Twitter: @MinorGraphs). Is Rendon ready to fill the void left by Bryce Harper? Can Castellanos overcome the Tigers lineup? Does Buehler deserve the helium? Let’s dive into the numbers. Topics discussed: Anthony Rendon (4:37), Nick Castellanos (25:54), Walker Buehler (44:56) and Minor Graphs (1:09:21). You can reach me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 46 profiles Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts, free agent OF Michael Brantley and Cubs SP Jose Quintana. I also talk about the increasing ADP of Orioles speedster Jonathan Villar and what it means for two rabid fan bases—Villar and Adalberto Mondesi Truthers. Do Bogaerts skills support his strong 2018 or was he simply a product of the strong Red Sox lineup? Is Brantley’s injury history suppressing his ADP and creating a value opportunity? Is Jose Quintana done or were there any silver linings in his atrocious 2018? Let’s dig in and find out. Players discussed: Xander Bogaerts (10:45), Michael Brantley (29:00) and Jose Quintana (44:17). Twitter: @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 45 profiles Reds SP Luis Castillo, Mets 2B Jeff McNeil and Cardinals OF Marcell Ozuna. What is they key to making Castillo’s 2019 more like his rookie campaign than his disappointing sophomore efforr? Is McNeil worth drafting higher than some solid veterans with similar skills? Should we expect Ozuna version 2018 or 2017? I also explore a new concept that has me enthused—the psychology of BABIP regression—and give my thoughts on the big three-way trade between the Rays, Indians and Mariners. Let’s dive in! Topics discussed: Luis Castillo (10:25), Jeff McNeil (35:49), Marcell Ozuna (48:34) and the psychology of BABIP regression (1:03:55). Twitter: @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 44 profiles two Rockies SP with very different ADP trends in German Marquez and Jon Gray. Can fantasy owners trust a Rockies SP enough to draft him in the top 75? Can Jon Gray right his previous wrongs (and those BABIP issues)? Let’s dig in. Players discussed: German Marquez (8:36) and Jon Gray (28:33). Twitter: @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 43 profiles Dodgers SS/OF Chris Taylor, Angels OF Kole Calhoun and White Sox SP Reynaldo Lopez. Is Taylor a post-hype value at an ADP over 200? Calhoun worth a flier near his 400 ADP? Can Lopez repeat his awesome end of season over a full year in 2019? Let’s find out! Players discussed: Chris Taylor (5:35), Kole Calhoun (22:51) and Reynaldo Lopez (36:12). Twitter: @BatFlipCrazy
Episode 42 profiles Royals 2B/OF and speedster Whit Merrifield, Phillies OF phenom Rhys Hoskins, Astros OF leadoff hitter George Springer, and Mets SP and Norse God Noah Syndergaard. How does Merrifield’s high ADP change his value proposition to fantasy owners? Should you draft Hoskins or Springer for your OF? Are there signs that Thor may be close to regaining his throne alongside other elite SP? Let’s find out. Players discussed: Whit Merrifield (5:05), Rhys Hoskins (21:16), George Springer (37:26) and Noah Syndergaard (56:58, more on Thor in the wrap up, too).
Episode 41 profiles Dodgers 1B/OF Cody Bellinger and Braves 2B Ozzie Albies. High expectations have pushed these two up draft boards in their early careers, but are they worth the cost? Let’s dive into the numbers. Players discussed: Cody Bellinger (2:27) and Ozzie Albies (17:43).
Episode 40 profiles slugger Khris Davis, Cubs first basemen Anthony Rizzo, Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Astros co-ace Gerrit Cole. I also give some love to xStats.org’s detailed batted ball profiles in the Reach, Charles! segment. Can Davis hit .247 again? Will Rizzo’s power rebound? After league-winning performances in 2018, can Snell and Cole live up to their high ADPs? Players discussed: Khris Davis (4:10), Anthony Rizzo (19:31), Blake Snell (37:07) and Gerrit Cole (57:25). You can reach me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 39 profiles free agent pitcher Patrick Corbin, ADP surger David Dahl and fantasy ace Justin Verlander. I also give props to Alex Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) in the Reach Charles! Segment for some great recent research he’s done on stolen bases and statcast power metrics. Does Corbin’s 2018 look repeatable? Is it worth buying into the Dahl hype? Is this the year Verlander starts his descent from greatness? Listen to find out. Players discussed: Patrick Corbin (2:46), David Dahl (19:05) and Justin Verlander (32:10). Reach me on Twitter @BatFlipCrazy.
Episode 38 tackles the fantasy outlook for Juan Soto, Luis Severino and Starling Marte. Can Soto make the leap from one of the game’s best hitters to one of fantasy baseball’s best? Is Luis Severino the Sevy of 2017 and the first half of 2018 or are we likely to see more of second half Sevy? How might injury have impacted Starling Marte’s late season struggles? These and more questions answered. Players discussed: Juan Soto (3:13), Luis Severino (20:16) and Starling Marte (40:25).
Episode 38 looks at the fantasy outlook for Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa and Aaron Nola based on past performance and skills. Blackmon took a step back last year, but remained solid, while Correa and Bryant struggled through injury and inconsistency. Which of the three looks like the best player for 2019 and is Nola showing signs of becoming a top 5 pitcher? Listen to find out. Players discussed: Charlie Blackmon (2:11), Kris Bryant (14:42), Carlos Correa (27:27) and Aaron Nola (40:21).
Episode 36 looks at the fantasy outlook for Clayton Kershaw, Giancarlo Stanton, Trevor Story and Andrew Benintendi. Kershaw and Stanton on the decline? Story and Benintendi on the rise? I also debut a new segment called Reach, Charles! where I discuss things I’m excited about, including the idea of opportunity cost as it relates to early picks. Players discussed: Clayton Kershaw (4:00), Giancarlo Stanton (19:36), Trevor Story (32:20) and Andrew Benintendi (47:14).
Episode 35 looks at the fantasy outlook of three Cleveland Indians starters and ranks them, along with Corey Kluber, among the top starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. Who’s the leader of the four heading into 2019? The answer may surprise you. As always, the podcast looks at past performance, skills, pitch splits, batted ball profile and more to figure out whether you should own them in your leagues next year and at what price. Players discussed: Trevor Bauer (4:28), Cookie Carrasco (30:12) and Mike Clevinger (48:37).
Episode 34 looks at the fantasy baseball outlook for Corey Kluber, Javier Baez and NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom. Kluber and Baez have Profiles with a lot more questions than some of the other top players, while deGrom has joined the ranks of truly elite starting pitcher. Players discussed: Corey Kluber (6:11), Javier Baez (27:02) and Jacob deGrom (40:58).
The player profile adventure continues! Episode 33 looks at the fantasy outlook of Chris Sale, Freddie Freeman and Aaron Judge based on past performance and skills. Players discussed: Chris Sale (3:07), Freddie Freeman (18:39) and Aaron Judge (34:37).
Episode 32 dives deep into three super exciting players—Alex Bregman, Ronald Acuna and Christian Yelich. In fact, it’s unlikely that another podcast this offseason will have a trio I like so damn much. And don’t worry, there’s plenty of talk about Yelich’s hard hit fly ball rate. Players discussed: Alex Bregman (3:11), Ronald Acuna (21:18) and Christian Yelich (31:54).
Episode 31 looks at the fantasy outlook for Jose Altuve after a disappointing season and Manny Machado after he played the villain in this year’s playoffs. As usual, the episode dives deep into past performance and skills to see what 2019 might hold for both players. Players discussed: Jose Altuve (4:09) and Manny Machado (20:06).
Episode 30 covers the fantasy outlook for two players currently going in the first round of mock drafts—Trea Turner and Paul Goldschmidt. Find out why only one belongs there. Also, a quick dive into the proposed Mallex Smith and Mike Zunino trade and it’s fantasy implications. Players discussed: Mallex Smith and Mike Zunino (0:08), Trea Turner (12:10) and Paul Goldschmidt (23:10).
Episode 29 looks at what makes Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the game with a deep dive on his past performance and skills. You will leave the podcast feeling refreshed and believing in starting pitching once again. Scherzer’s got production, skills and volume for days.
Episode 28 looks at two outfielders currently going in the first round of mock drafts—J.D. Martinez and Bryce Harper. I take a look at the metrics and skills behind their past performance to see what we should expect from each player in 2019. Players discussed: J.D. Martinez (2:39) and Bryce Harper (14:54).
This episode takes a deep dive into player analysis, including an overview of my offseason process and the first five player profiles for 2019. I look at the current top 5 in early ADP to see what we might expect next season. Players discussed: Mike Trout (13:40), Mookie Betts (22:33), Jose Ramirez (31:08), Francisco Lindor (39:23) and Nolan Arenado (50:29).
In Episode 26 of the podcast, I talked with Max Freeze of FreezeStats.com, FantasyPros and Sports Degens. Our conversation touched on a number of subjects, including his approach to hitter and pitcher analysis, the impact of changes to pitcher roles on fantasy baseball strategy, players he likes and dislikes heading into 2019, and more. Players we discuss include: David Dahl, Jake Bauers, Josh James, Corbin Burnes, Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Correa and Gleyber Torres.
Interview with Joe Saunders of the Fantasy World Order podcast. We discussed a number of topics, including player analysis tools, spin rate, release points, projections, standings gain points, in-season management, FAAB tendencies, and players he likes and dislikes headed into 2019. Players discussed: Kyle Tucker, German Marquez, Matt Olson, Javier Baez, Evan Gattis, Matt Chapman, Nick Pivetta, and Yoan Moncada.
The 2018 fantasy baseball season is now in the rear view mirror. This episode looks back at my 12 bold predictions from the preseason to see what I got right, what I got wrong, and some lessons learned. Players discussed: Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Yasiel Puig, Eddie Rosario, Corey Knebel, Whit Merrifield, Javier Baez, Yadier Molina, Kyle Hendricks, Matt Carpenter, Dominic Leone, Brad Boxberger, Alex Claudio and Devon Travis.
Interview with Walter McMichael of the Real Fake Baseball podcast on Friends with Fantasy Benefits. We discussed player analysis, dynasty leagues, prospect resources, in-season management, FAAB, draft prep, and three players he likes and dislikes based on where they're going the early mock drafts. We then debate Adalberto Mondesi and what to expect from him next year. Players discussed: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Ozzie Albies, Adalberto Mondesi, Eloy Jimenez, top tier starting pitchers, Yoan Moncada, and more.
Interview with Patrick Donovan of the Fantasy World Order podcast. Topics discussed include players who can help fantasy owners down the stretch, player analysis tools and metrics, draft strategy, in-season management and players he does and doesn't like heading into 2019 drafts.
Septmeber can make or break fantasy baseball seasons. Today's podcast provides 7 player predictions for September and answers questions from listeners on a range of topics, including September call-ups, Tyler White, Jose Quintana's struggles and David Bote. Players discussed: Matt Olson (1:40), Avisail Garcia (3:57), Tommy Pham (7:10), Adalberto Mondesi (9:00), Victor Robles (11:20), Kyle Hendricks (13:50), Carlos Rodon (16:25), Jose Peraza (17:58), Jose Quintana (24:28), Luke Voit (32:08), Tyler White (32:08), Kevin Newman (34:33), Ryan O'Hearn (34:33) and David Bote (41:03).
Looks at potential waiver wire pick ups for the week beginning August 27. Players discussed: Greg Allen, Philip Ervin, Jeff McNeil, Neil Walker, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jonathan Villar, Cory Spangenberg, Ryan O'Hearn, J.T. Riddle, Ji-Man Choi, Billy McKinney, Brian Johnson, Anthony DeSclafani and Sam Gaviglio.
Looks at 12 hitters and three pitchers showing interesting skills recently. Players discussed: Aaron Hicks, Jose Martinez, Cedric Mullins, Tyler White, Justin Smoak, Rafael Ortega, Joe Mauer, Jorge Bonifacio, DJ LeMahieu, Kendrys Morales, Harrison Bader, Matt Olson, Joe Musgrove, Zach Eflin and Alex Cobb.
Back from a two week hiatus to provide 16 hitter observations and 5 pitcher observations based on player skills over the last 14 days. Players discussed: Stephen Souza Jr., Brandon Nimmo, Jed Lowrie, Paul DeJong, Trey Mancini, Willy Adames, Jason Kipnis, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Jeimer Candelario, Teoscar Hernandez, Niko Goodrum, Miguel Sano, Daniel Murphy, Mark Trumbo, Alex Bregman, Derek Holland, David Price, Tyler Glasnow, Jalen Beeks and Sam Gaviglio.
Interview with Brian Slack, writer for Baseball HQ and one of the best fantasy baseball players around. We look at his process throughout the season, including metrics, tools and resources he uses for player analysis. We also discuss fantasy baseball strategy, including draft strategy and in-season management. He then gives us his fresh baked players (guys he likes rest of season) and his hard cookies (players who will disappoint).
Looks at possible waiver wire additions for the week ending July 30. Players discussed: Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips, Adalberto Mondesi, Mitch Garver, Lucas Duda, Jacoby Jones, Lourdes Gurriel, Derek Holland, Wily Peralta, Trevor Richards and Yefry Ramirez.
Quick hits on two hitters (Cody Bellinger and Adam Duvall) and two pitchers (Shane Bieber and Vince Velasquez), hitter observations and deep dives on Zack Wheeler and Carlos Rodon. Players discussed: Shane Bieber, Cody Bellinger, Adam Duvall, Vince Velasquez, Justin Upton, Brandon Nimmo, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell, Mitch Haniger, Justin Smoak, Jeimer Candelario, Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo, Ronald Guzman, Derek Dietrich, Ronald Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, David Fletcher, Chris Taylor, Carlos Rodon and Zack Wheeler.
Hitter observations over the last two weeks and deep dives on two players expected to excel this week: Marcus Semien and Greg Bird. Players discussed: Matt Carpenter, Carlos Asuaje, George Springer, Cameron Maybin, Bryce Harper, Joe Mauer, Sal Perez, Aaron Hicks, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Kipnis, Marcus Semien and Greg Bird.
The second half of the season officially began yesterday, so today's podcast looks at hitters I expect to have strong second halfs. Twelve hitters are discussed in depth, along with four honorable mentions.
A look at some hitting and pitching options on the waiver wire, including Kole Calhoun, Nick Williams, Chad Pinder, Jorge Bonifacio, Mark Trumbo, Mark Canha and Elias Diaz for hitters and Anibal Sanchez, Felix Pena, Dereck Rodriguez, Eric Lauer, Wade LeBlanc and Derek Holland for pitchers.