Cannabis Investing Network
By CIN Podcast
2 Private Cannabis Investors share thoughts, analysis and opinions on the ups and downs of the rapidly changing Cannabis Investing landscape. For Investors By Investors
#95 - Patience Will be Rewarded for Cannabis Investors (ft. Alan Brochstein of 420investor)
Cannabis Investing Network • By CIN Podcast • Jun 02, 2021
#95 - Patience Will be Rewarded for Cannabis Investors (ft. Alan Brochstein of 420investor)
Cannabis Investing Network • By CIN Podcast • Jun 02, 2021
#142 - Investors are Flying Blind
In this episode we discuss the complexities of investing across any asset class right now. From commercial real estate to cannabis, investors are facing tough questions about the future, especially in the context of inflation and rising interest rates. As delve into some of the uncertainties and examine reasons why Q4 and Q1 were so tough for operators.
May 18, 2022
#141 - Cash No Longer Trash - May 2022 Market Update
In this episode we update our Fed Party analogy to ask: where are we now? What's next? Where is the opportunity? As the broader market gets crushed we discuss what is happening, how stocks are being repriced and how cannabis will look in comparison. Link: The Fed on Inflation & Rates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugBKSiTL0IU&ab_channel=BloombergMarketsandFinance
May 11, 2022
#140 - Takeaways from Benzinga Miami 2022
We're back! After a long road trip we share our thoughts, takeaways and changes in strategy after a very productive Benzinga. What did we see? What did we learn? What are the best investment opportunities right now?
May 04, 2022
#139 - Burning out of Cannabis?
In this week's episode we discuss Burn Out. As sentiment continues to be depressed and the macro environment looks ugly it is easy to feel down and out on cannabis. In this episode we discuss ideas and strategies for handling and avoiding burn out.
April 27, 2022
#138 - Investing for 420 vs 2024
In this episode we discuss balancing short term catalysts for cannabis with an ugly macro picture. We also look out to 2024 and discuss how the industry will look, with multiple attractive markets open and a presidential election approaching. Videos mentioned: Fed will Crush Stocks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fiiib9oqTB0&t=1s&ab_channel=BloombergMarketsandFinance
April 13, 2022
#137 - Is Cannabis Recession Proof? + Market Update
In this weeks episode we do a market update on: - the MORE act passing the house (again) - Mainstream recognition and momentum building - CAOA and SAFE possibilities - New Mexico starting legal sales with a bang - Listener Question re: Schwazze - Cresco x Columbia Care Merger thoughts We also discuss how the macro effects of inflation, supply chain issues and accelerating rate hikes might break the economy. We talk through how cannabis might behave in a recession and why it may not be all bad for the industry.
April 06, 2022
#136 - Operating in Canada vs the US (ft. Everett Knight, EVP of the Valens Company)
In this episode we go back to where it all started – the Canadian cannabis market! We are joined by Everett Knight who is Executive Vice President at the Valens Company. Everett has a very interesting background as he was an institutional investor in Cannabis as early as 2013. He has toured over 200 cannabis facilities between the US and Canada, investing on both sides of the border. He experienced significant investment success in the early days before deciding to “get in the game” by join Valens. Because Everett has experience on both sides of the fence he has a unique perspective - the ability to think through the investment implications of the industry but have a view to the inner operational side of the business. Similarly, Valens has operations in both Canada and the US (including a new NASDAQ listing). We have a very honest conversation about: - what Canada looked like early on - why Canada is so challenging as a market - how Canada compares to California (and other unlimited license states) - Valens financial performance and outlook for 2023 - what will happen to Canada over the next 2 years? Thanks to Everett for joining us. You can follow him @ https://twitter.com/smallcapfund or contact Valens IR @ https://thevalenscompany.com/contact/
March 30, 2022
#135 - Catalysts and the Upside Scenario for Cannabis
In this episode we discuss 3 categories of upcoming catalysts which could help propel the cannabis sector out of its current slump We break out these potential catalysts into state level changes, federal changes and potential M&A. We also discuss which changes will have a long term impact and which could be have short lived benefit.
March 23, 2022
#134 - Q&A - Answering Listener Questions (Mid March 2022)
In this episode we dig through our listener mailbox to answer some wide ranging questions including: - New York giving first 200 retail licenses to Social Equity - Canadian LPs rapidly losing share to smaller producers; what does this mean for the US? - How do we like Curaleaf at these prices? - How will low share prices affect M&A? - When to sell your holdings? - What do we think about the Ancillary plays? - Why is this still an attractive industry? - How much upside is there in any one cannabis name? Thanks for the great questions and please keep sending them in! References: Trump vs Nancy Mace: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/nikki-haley-trump.html Nancy Mace Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAKwodshrxU&t=183s&ab_channel=mindsetcapital
March 16, 2022
#133 - Investing through PAIN
As markets continue to give everyone heart burn we try to take a sober look at: 1) Emotions - how it feels to live through volatility 2) Risks to Limited License Operators - some negatives we are seeing 3) Fundamentals - why the thesis still makes sense, but how we are underwriting more conservatively
March 09, 2022
#132 - Downside Risks in Cannabis Stocks
In this episode we dig into potential downside risks to the long term thesis of our cannabis holdings including interstate commerce, federal regulations, state regulations and price volatility. We also spend some time discussing why its so important to think about downside risk in this industry and sizing your portfolio appropriately. Links / Articles Discussed: 1)The Cannalysts Hot Dog Stand Analogy: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheCannalysts/comments/st9a7l/the_hot_dog_stand_an_analogy/ 2) Oklahoma is a Cannabis Boom State: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/us/oklahoma-marijuana-boom.html
February 23, 2022
#131 - Technical Analysis & Trading Cannabis (ft. Charting Man Dan of The Chart Guys)
In this episode we are joined by a special guest who brings a different perspective. Charting Man Dan of The Chart Guys is a well known cannabis personality who specializes in technical analysis and chart reading. Dan is a veteran cannabis trader but also regularly trades broader indices and crypto. In this episode we discuss: - What is technical analysis? - Why is technical analysis useful? - How does trading on the OTC differ from Higher Exchanges - What are Dan's personal strategies with regards to cannabis trading - How does Dan decide to buy or sell a stock - Why does Dan think we are at the bottom of a cycle and what would change his mind Thanks to Dan for joining us and sharing his perspective Contact / More Information: The Chart Guys - https://www.chartguys.com/ Dan's Youtube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/c/TheChartGuys/videos
February 16, 2022
#130 - A to Z of the Arizona Market (ft. Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy)
In this episode, we are joined by Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy. Hirsh does a deep dive on the Arizona market, which implemented its adult use program in a record 2.5 months after legalizing cannabis through a state ballot initiative in November 2020, generating more than $1.35 billion in sales in its first year. Hirsh walks through some of the reasons Arizona's program has had success, including its licensing structure, favorable tax climate and a high level of cooperation between state regulators and the industry. We also discuss what other states may be in a position to learn from Arizona's example, and implement successful adult use programs in the near future.
February 09, 2022
#129 - How to Invest in Cannabis in Uncertain Times - Feb 2022 Market Update
It's been only 2 weeks since our last market update and we have seen a very rough market shakeout. As we face down a volatile equity market we find ourselves asking fundamental questions about investing: Why is the market behaving so wildly? Where should we invest? What sectors will do well? How will cannabis weather the storm? We talk about key macro considerations like inflation and interest rates and discuss wheher they should factor into our investing decisions. We talk through our reasoning on why investors should still be interested in equities and why cannabis equities in particular are attractive. However, the increased volatility we are seeing means we may want to change strategies, allocations and cash balances going forward.
February 02, 2022
#128 - 2022 Political Outlook for Cannabis Investing (ft. Jason aka CMDR1305)
In this episode we are delighted to bring back our unofficial political correspondent, Jason. Jason has extensive experience working on the ‘Hill’. He was a member of 2 lobbying groups that advocated for safe and fair-trade issues and economic investment in American cities. As well, he worked for an appropriations chairman who focused on financial services and trade issues. Jason recently wrote a detailed post on reddit titled ‘Understanding Washington: 2022 The Year Ahead’. The post is well written with one of the main themes being: We must see the whole board and understand the position that our legislative agenda fits into the broader picture. This is an important perspective when considering the impact politics plays in Cannabis. We discuss this these along with the following topics: What events occurred that led to the removal of SAFE from the NDAA Money in the politics and where to look How the political catalyst landscape looks for 2022 What, if anything, we can predict about the years beyond this November’s election. The 3 Political Tests you should do to prevent getting caught up in the hype: (1) Political Test: Democratic Leadership is comfortable with a vote (2) Practical Test: There are a majority of votes in Congress (3) Bi-Partisan Test: there are votes from both sides of the aisle. Links: https://www.opensecrets.org/ Jason's Article - Understanding Washington: 2022 The Year Ahead (Click here for the article). As always, we hope you enjoy this episode.
January 26, 2022
#127 - Nothing Has Changed - Mid-Jan 2022 Market Update
In this 2022 Market Update we discuss the theme that "nothing has changed" since late last year and why that is both positive and negative for the cannabis industry. In particular we discuss macro factors such as raising interest rates and how that sets up a difficult investing environment for 2022. We also discuss industry specific issues and give some predictions for how they may play out. Read JP's outlook for SAFE banking - https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/s2cw14/understanding_washington_2022_the_year_ahead/
January 19, 2022
#126 - Building Cresco into the Industry's Partner of Choice (ft. Greg Butler, CCO of Cresco Labs)
In this episode of our executive series we are joined by Greg Butler of Cresco Labs. Greg is Cresco's Chief Commercial Officer and has a wide ranging background including pharma, private equity and alcohol. In this interview we discuss: - Greg's Origins: How he got started in cannabis and why he chose Cresco Labs - Alcohol vs Cannabis: how the industries are different and how they are similar - Competitive Threat: How Big Beer is tracking the cannabis industry - Industry Evolution: how cannabis is changing as it gets more competitive - Building a Cannabis Brand: what it means, what matters and what's changing - Financials: What will drive growth ahead for Cresco - Being the "Partner of Choice": How Cresco is positioning itself for the future of the industry - Investment and Acquisitions: What big CPG will look for when it comes time to partner with an MSO Thank you to Greg for joining us for this interview!
January 12, 2022
#125 - Our Predictions for 2022 for Cannabis Stocks
Welcome to 2022! As we ring in the new year we look forward and shares some of our predictions of what is to come this year. We discuss upcoming catalysts to get excited about, headwinds to be cautious about and discuss potential wild cards that could upend the market. If 2021 taught us anything it was that "Nobody Knows" and "Expect Volatility Ahead". PS - as we start a new year we are looking to hear your suggestions for what topics you'd like to hear about! Please email us your thoughts
January 05, 2022
#124 - What Happened in 2021? Cannabis Investing Year in Review
Recapping the rollercoaster of the year that was 2021. Cannabis investors were hoping 2021 would be “The Chosen Year” with potential for significant federal change in the US. Instead we got whiplash and a lesson in humility. In this episode we rewind to the start of the year and discuss how key events played out. The end of the year is a great time to do some sober reflection on what we got right, what we got wrong and what lessons we can take to (hopefully) improve our game in the future. Some Key Topics: - Nobody Knows: the importance of humility and staying nimble - Everyone is Retail: how price action drives investor mentality - The Quiet Role of Short Sellers and their impact on cannabis - Increased Competition across key markets - SAFE Banking and betting on federal change We also discuss how the industry has evolved in 2021 and how we are thinking about our investments heading into next year. Thank you to everyone for listening and sending in great questions! We will see you all in 2022
December 22, 2021
#123 - Understanding the New Challenges of the California market (ft. Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy)
In this episode we are joined by special guest Hirsh Jain. Hirsh is the founder of Ananda Strategy, a consultancy that works with many of California's leading cannabis brands and retailers and has helped its clients operationalize some of the most successful cannabis facilities in the state. We unpack what’s changed since Hirsh’s last appearance. We address the elephant in the room which is the carnage that’s happening to California operators and why the top MSO’s have shifted their posture to a wait and see strategy vs looking to establish a footprint in the golden state. Although there is no optimistic sheen to put on California, there are certain steps the companies and municipalities are taking to defend the industry as well as attract investments. During the second half of the episode, we look at what new states could learn from California to make their regulated cannabis roll out more efficient. As always, if you have any questions for our guest Hirsh, please reach out to him at email@example.com or any questions for us please email us. Connect with Hirsh: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/hirsh-jain-b896b080/ Ananda Strategy - http://anandastrategy.com/
December 15, 2021
#122 - Investing in Cannabis through Sale-Leasebacks (ft. Jarrett Annenberg of Newlake Capital Partners)
In this episode we are joined by Jarrett Annenberg of Newlake Capital Partners. NLCP is a new OTC listed public cannabis REIT who owns dispensaries and cultivation facilities across the US. Their largest tenants include Curaleaf, Cresco, Trulieve, Columbia Care and other single and multi-state operators. We touch on a wide variety of topics including: - Why a delayed SAFE banking will help Newlake grow its portfolio - History repeating itself: how expectations of SAFE in 2019 are similar to 2021 - The $3B capital opportunity and where Sale-Leaseback fits into the equation - Origins of Newlake: how the company got started by raising $90M in 2019 - Scaling up by merging with Green Acreage REIT - How NLCP raised $100M to go public in a soft equity market - "A Safer Way to Play Cannabis" - why larger investors liked cannabis REITs - Why investors should be excited about NLCP and its opportunity for capital appreciation Thanks to Jarrett for joining us! Jarrett on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jarrett-annenberg-8584474/ Newlake Investor Deck - https://ir.newlake.com/company-information/presentations
December 08, 2021
#121 - Taking Advantage of Volatility in Cannabis Investing (ft. Alan Brochstein of 420investor)
In this episode we are joined by Alan "The Maven" Brochstein. Alan is an extremely experienced cannabis analyst who has been covering the sector since 2014. He is co-founder of New Cannabis Ventures and founder of 420investor. In this wide ranging conversation we discuss many different topics including: - State of the market: how AB sees the cannabis stock action compared to previous years - Cyclicality of Cannabis Stocks: How the pendulum swings to the extremes - Staying flexible: the importance of combining trading and investing mentality - Altria & Cronos: Why Alan thought (and still thinks) Altria should buy Cronos - Interesting opportunities in the market right now, especially with newer issues Thanks as always to Alan for joining us to share his insights Connect with Alan: Twitter - https://twitter.com/Invest420 420investor - https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/
December 01, 2021
#120 - Q3 2021 Financial Review of the Big 5 MSOs (ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
In this mega-episode our good friend Nick Gastevich joins us for the Q3 2021 quarterly review of Cresco, Curaleaf, Trulieve, Green Thumb, and Verano (in that order). We do a deep dive into profitability, cash flow, brands, valuation and how we see the strengths and weaknesses of each company. We discuss how well positioned each of these companies is for the current phase of our industry and for the future post-uplisting. Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review Connect with Nick: Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/ Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/
November 24, 2021
#119 - Positioning Your Cannabis Portfolio for Ups & Downs
What a difference 2 weeks makes! In this episode we discuss a few key themes around the biggest issues we are seeing in today's market 1) Narratives vs Reality - how the divergence creates opportunity for investors 2) Nancy Mace Legalization bill - what this really means and the effect its having on the market 3) $MSOS huge cash inflows and how we expect this to impact the cannabis stock market short term 4) Strategy - ideas on position your portfolio to play the ups and downs of cannabis volatility
November 17, 2021
#118 - Cannabis Trades in an Inefficient Market (+ why that is a good thing)
In this episode (which was recorded on Fri Nov 5th) we discuss the rapid sentiment shift from "Depression" to "Euphoria" and why it is an excellent real-time example of the inefficiency of the cannabis investing market. We often discuss how our market behaves irrationally but in this episode we delve into the reasons why it is that way, examples of irrational behaviour and strategies to take advantage of these swings.
November 10, 2021
#117 - Spoiled for Choice in Cannabis Investing (ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
This week we are joined by fan-favourite Nick Gastevich (aka CannaVestments). Nick is an OG cannabis investor whose family office invested in GTI's first round in 2014 (and again in subsequent years). In this episode we discuss: - General negativity in the cannabis sector - Schumer, SAFE, NDAA and federal politics - Q3 financial softness in key markets of PA/FL - Other headwinds which can make the short term choppy - Positive catalysts being overlooked including potential 2022 legalization in PA/OH/MD/MO/AK - Re-allocating your portfolio to account for tax loss harvesting - Owning smaller companies vs the biggest MSOs - Strategizing for SAFE vs no-SAFE banking Thanks to Nick for a great episode as usual. Connect with Nick: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/ Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/
November 03, 2021
#116 - Face to Face with the Industry - Post MJ Biz Debrief
In this (slightly late) episode we debrief a phenomenal MJ Biz conference including our takeaways, the negatives, the positives and our strategies for the coming quarters. JP October SAFE/NDAA Update - https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/qc4h27/understanding_washington_october_updates/
October 27, 2021
#115 - 5 Tips for Improving your Cannabis Investing Game
In this episode we talk about how we can "sharpen our swords" and focus on improving our investing abilities. We talk about mistakes we've made (and re-made), what we've learned and some of the easiest ways to work on your cannabis IQ, investing knowledge and research capabilities in order to (hopefully) reach better outcomes.
October 20, 2021
#114 - Investing for the Future of Cannabis (ft. Sayshu of MM Fund)
In this episode we’re joined by Sayshu Medicherla (@Sayshu_MM), the Founder/CIO of MM Fund. He has extensive experience investing professionally across a variety of asset classes and strategies including public equities, venture capital, private equity, and credit. We cover two major topics today: First, we discuss different ways to approach investing in cannabis and why it’s important to ‘know what you own’ and understand that the people you’re following throughout various media outlets may not necessarily have the same investment style as you. Sayshu also provides his insights on how he views investing through an institutional lens and how risk comes in various forms whether it’s liquidity, valuation, narrative shifts etc. We also discuss how he thinks about valuations in both a public and private market context. Second, we discuss the evolving brand story in US cannabis. The story so far has been one of ‘if you can grow weed, you can sell weed’ and the top operators have proven they can run profitable businesses. However, as we look out a couple years, we look at what we feel will be the next battleground for cannabis companies, the battle of the brands. Sayshu explains why he thinks this is a relevant topic for investors today, and how he’s trying to understand the brand strategies of the top companies. As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to email us. If you have any questions for Sayshu please feel free to DM him on twitter @Sayshu_MM.
October 13, 2021
#113 - A Culture of Winning (ft. George Archos, CEO of Verano Holdings)
In this episode we are joined by George Archos who is CEO, Chairman and Co-Founder of Verano Holdings. In this interview we discuss: - Background: How George got started in the restaurant industry - What makes a restaurant successful and why its a good training ground for the cannabis industry - Verano Orgins: How the company got started by winning an IL cultivation license - Expansion Years: Building the base of assets rapidly over 3 years in MD, OH, NJ and NV - Importance of Culture: How George brought in highly motivated people from the restaurant industry to win in cannabis - 2018: Consolidation, Raising Capital and a false start in Florida - Legislative Change: Why George is focused on State level changes over Federal - The Harvest Merger: How this transformational M&A side tracked the company and hurt their footprint - First Mover Advantage: Why Verano staked its name on high quality indoor flower - Florida: Why Altmed was a great fit and why they choose to avoid participating in Florida's price war - M&A: Why Verano was so aggressive in AZ and PA to expand the footprint - Financial Performance: What happened to EBITDA margins from Q1 to Q2 and what we can expect longer term - Running Lean: Why 2008 was a key learning lesson that influence's the company to this day - The Future: Expanding the footprint, functioning like CPG - Buying vs Building Brands: Where the company is focusing its energy today Thanks to George for joining in for this in depth interview! Connect with George on Twitter: https://twitter.com/georgearchos
October 06, 2021
#112 - Embracing the Uncertainty in Cannabis Investing
In this episode we discuss the importance of admitting "I don't know" when it comes to investing in this sector. We discuss how "I don't know" can be helpful for: - Taking a more cautious approach to building your portfolio - Federal change, the SAFE act and NDAA news - Selecting which markets are attractive - Evaluating headlines and social media - Managing your cash position - Buying individual stocks vs the MSOS ETF We also discuss having a CIN meet-up at the upcoming MJ Biz conference in October The theme of this episode was inspired by a recent episode of Howard Mark's podcast the Memo which you can listen to here: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/podcasts/the-rewind-us-and-them
September 29, 2021
#111 - Bullish but Hesitant on Federal Change (ft. Jason aka CMDR1305)
In this episode we are joined by special guest, Jason, who worked in Washington D.C. for a House Appropriations Chairman and focused on financial services and trade issues. During his career in D.C., he was an integral member of two lobbying groups that advocated for safe and fair trade issues and economic investment in American cities. He is still heavily involved in the political world and currently manages a program that focuses on developing unique financial products to support the development of infrastructure and investment in cities. Given his extensive experience on “the Hill’, Jason provides a political perspective on why he feels collective wisdom pertaining to federal cannabis reform may be misguided. He explains why he remains bullish but with hesitation and why investors should proceed with caution as they try to unravel political lingo and process. We discuss at length the process of getting different types of bills passed into law, the recent addition of SAFE into the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and finally the Cannabis Administration & Opportunity Act (CAOA). Jason explains why he feels the Democrats are more likely to stick to a social justice agenda when it comes to cannabis and will not give up the capital markets issue without getting social justice measures in whatever legislation moves forward. In short, this could go from a quick and easy protection for banking to a controversial package with many moving parts. We hope you enjoy this episode and as always if you have any questions feel free to contact us or Jason on reddit at CMDR1305 (https://www.reddit.com/user/Cmdr1305/).
September 22, 2021
#110 - Understanding California (ft. Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy)
In this episode, we are joined with the guru of the golden coast Hirsh Jain! Hirsh is the founder of Ananda Strategy, a consultancy that works with many of California's leading cannabis brands and retailers and has helped its clients operationalize some of the most successful cannabis facilities in the state. In this action packed episode we try to further understand the California cannabis landscape and as always we look at both sides of the coin, the challenges and the catalysts. Many of us understand the California cannabis market is ‘fragmented,’ but what does this truly mean from an investment perspective? What are some of the major risks and challenges facing the cannabis investment landscape in California? How is a dialed in professional like Hirsh navigating the state and helping his clients avoid possible pit falls? What are the upcoming catalysts and how can we appropriately position our portfolios to win in this state? Find out the answers to these questions and more in this episode. As always, if you have any comments or questions feel free to contact us at CINpodcast@gmail.com. We love hearing from you and so do our guests. Please feel free to contact Hirsh at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any specific questions regarding California. Connect with Hirsh: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/hirsh-jain-b896b080/ Ananda Strategy - http://anandastrategy.com/
September 15, 2021
#109 - Creating Value by Going Deep in Key States (ft. Abner Kurtin, CEO of Ascend Wellness)
Joining us today is Abner Kurtin who is CEO, Chairman and Co-Founder of Ascend Wellness Holdings (AWH). Abner’s background is as an investor – starting at the highly regarded Baupost and moving on to starting his own hedge fund. He raised $50M to invest in the cannabis space before switching gears and Co-Founding Ascend in 2018. In only 3 years Ascend has become a top player in IL with an eye to repeating the model in NY, NJ and Mass (the company is also in MI and OH). In this episode we discuss: - Abner’s Investment Background: What he learned working at Baupost - Raising $50M to Invest in Cannabis: The 3 Key Factors Abner looked for in each deal - Why Investing in MSOs like Grassroots, GTI, Pharmacann made sense - Starting Ascend – Being opportunistic in MA and IL - How AWH became a top player in IL alongside GTI, Cresco & Verano - The importance of being scaled and vertical in every market - NJ: How AWH got started and why NJ will be the story of 2022 - What to look forward to in NY and how the state is progressing - Is slow uplisting a risk or opportunity to the cannabis space? - Why is capital allocation so important in this industry? - The Future of Ascend: Acquiring, Merging or Selling the company Thank you to Abner for joining us for this jam-packed interview You can find more information on AWH including past earnings calls at: https://awholdings.com/investors/
September 08, 2021
#108 - Q2 2021 Financial Review of the Big 5 MSOs (ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
In this mega-episode our good friend Nick Gastevich joins us for the Q2 2021 quarterly review of Cresco, Curaleaf, Green Thumb, Trulieve and Verano (in that order). We do a deep dive into profitability, cash flow, brands, valuation and how we see the strengths and weaknesses of each company. As the cannabis market trades poorly we discuss how valuations between these top tier companies have diverged and where we see the most opportunity. Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review Connect with Nick: Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/ Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/
September 01, 2021
#107 - Cannabis Investors Need A Strong Stomach & A Long View - Aug 2021 Market Update
In this end of August market update we discuss negative market chatter we are hearing. We try to answer - "How long can this go on? And how bad can it get?" The simple answer is that we don't know - but we think through some of the bear cases for our sector. We also discuss how to win as an investor in a down market. The theme of the episode is that investors are spoiled for choice right now but need a strong stomach and a longer time horizon to take advantage of it. In this update we cover several earnings update, thoughts on MMEN/Tilray and general ideas about the state of the market.
August 25, 2021
#106 - A Golden Opportunity for Cannabis Investors in 2 Large Cap MSOs
In this episode we discuss why we believe the market has swung back to "Golden Opportunity" territory and the dynamics behind the shift. In particular we dig into Trulieve and Verano and explain why we think these two names are have fallen to very attractive multiples based on 2022 EBITDA.
August 18, 2021
#105 - What's Wrong with My Weed Stocks?
In this episode we ask - what is wrong with cannabis stocks? Why is it despite all the good news, earnings and fundamental progress occurring the cannabis sector continues to bleed red? Should investors be worried that something is wrong or excited about the opportunity this presents? In this episode we discuss: - Earnings season and how stocks seem numb - The set up: how we got here - Human psychology of winning and losing - Investing vs playing at the casino - Taking advantage of market inefficiencies - Risk factors: what should investors be worried about? Resources: Florida Deals - https://flcannabisdeals.org/cannabis-deals-florida/
August 11, 2021
#104 - Part 2/2 of Ranking our Top 7 Up and Coming Mid-Cap MSOs (ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
Part 2/2 - In this episode we are joined by fan favourite Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments to do a deep dive into 7 of our favourite up and coming mid and small cap MSOs. Part 2 has smaller cap companies with potentially more upside but also additional execution risk. In part 2 of this analysis we go over: Our Picks for #4-7: 4) Pharmacann (private) 5) Vireo / Goodness Growth 6) Jushi 7) Cansortium - Ranking: Why we feel this way - Origins: Genesis of each company and the progress that has been made - Value: Current valuation and where we see future upside potential - Capital Structure: Shares outstanding, debt and cash on hand - Footprint: Core states today and future growth states - M&A: Past and future prospects - Risks and Challenges with each company Thanks to Nick for joining us for this epic 2 part series Connect with Nick: Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/ Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/
August 04, 2021
#103 - Ranking our Top 7 Up and Coming Mid-Cap MSOs (Part 1 of 2)(ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
In this episode we are joined by fan favourite Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments to do a deep dive into 7 of our favourite up and coming mid and small cap MSOs. We also go over market sentiment, reactions to Schumers bill and why it is worthwhile to look at mid cap MSOs. In part 1 of this analysis we go over: Our Top 3 Picks: 1) AYR Wellness 2) Ascend Wellness 3) Columbia Care - Ranking: Why we feel this way - Origins: Genesis of each company and the progress that has been made - Value: Current valuation and where we see future upside potential - Capital Structure: Shares outstanding, debt and cash on hand - Footprint: Core states today and future growth states - M&A: Past and future prospects - Risks and Challenges with each company Coming next week - part 2 of our analysis where we review picks #4-7 Connect with Nick: Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/ Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/
July 28, 2021
#102 - The Sustainable Future of Cannabis (ft. Chris Murray)
In this episode we are once again joined with a special guest, Chris Murray. Chris and Abi discuss a wide array of topics that affect the social stigma in cannabis along with potential factors which are affecting other sectors and could spill over to cannabis. First we briefly touch on Sha'carri Richardson's recent disqualification in the upcoming Tokyo Olympics after testing positive for THC. Followed by a look into ESG, Environmental, Social and Governance, which refers to the three key factors when measuring the sustainability and ethical impact of a company. ESG is affecting many other industries including meat, agriculture, metals refining, crypto mining and others. We discuss if this is something cannabis investors should be concerned about. Lastly, we look back on Tilray and discuss how a restricted cap combined with retail demand on a large US exchange created a perfect storm for the price to shoot to the moon. As always, we hope you enjoyed this episode.
July 21, 2021
#101 - Cannabis is a Generational Wealth Creation Opportunity
In this episode we discuss last week's Jefferies ~300 page research report on the US Cannabis industry. The investment bank covers many MSOs, US markets and projects out sales to 2030. We discuss why we think the headline is true but potentially misleading, try to measure how much upside we see in the next 2-3 years, discuss forward margins and EBITDA multiples and discuss our strategy for earning outsized returns to build our portfolio.
July 14, 2021
#100 - Special 100th Review: Looking Back at 2+ Years of Cannabis Investing
Nostalgia time! In this episode we dive into our experiences over the last 2+ years and discuss how the market has evolved since we started this podcast. While many things have changed, the parallels between market boom and bust, the nature of retail investors and the emotional turmoil of the highs and lows are eerily similar to 2019. We discuss how our past experiences (and mistakes) have hopefully made us better cannabis investors in 2021. A special thank you to all the listeners who have been with us through the ups and downs; 100 episodes down and we are just getting started!
July 07, 2021
#99 - Q1 2021 Financial Review of the Big 5 MSOs (ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
In this mega-episode our good friend Nick Gastevich joins us for the Q1 quarterly review of Curaleaf, Trulieve, Cresco Labs, Green Thumb and Verano. We do a deep dive into profitability, core footprints, valuation and how we see the future for each company. As the broader peer set trades between 10-14X '22 EBITDA we feel the time is right for acquiring these big 5 MSOs. We discuss the theme of value hidden in plain sight for these "Green Chip" companies. Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review Connect with Nick: Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/ Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/
June 30, 2021
#98 - Why We're Bullish on Limited License States (ft. Andrew Semple of Echelon Wealth Partners)
We are joined by a special guest, Andrew Semple from Echelon Wealth Partners. Andrew was recently highlighted as the top performing analyst on Bay St by the Globe and Mail. He's a fundamental investor at heart and finds value in growth stocks. In this episode we gain insights on federal reform, select limited license states and US MSO's. As well we gain insights on how Semple begins an analysis on a specific market. Companies mentioned: AYR Wellness, Columbia Care, Curaleaf, GTI, Jushi, Trulieve, Verano. Links to Andrew’s Research: · Click here for Andrew’s Weekly Summary June 11, 2021 Link to Andrew's analyst disclaimer - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Qc3gGCQQjDVuxi3xKE_qF6wxVEP-_HBM/view?usp=sharing
June 23, 2021
#97 - What Happened at Canopy Growth? (ft. Chris Murray)
Correction - Chris mentions Hexo/Truss drinks in the US containing THC. This is an error - these drinks are CBD only. We are joined by a special guest, Chris Murray. Chris is a veteran in the cannabis sector. He was employee number 7 at Canopy Growth, which was the first Canadian LP to go public on the TSX and NASDAQ and was dubbed the first unicorn in the cannabis sector. Canopy played a pivotal role in shaping today's cannabis sector and today we are joined by Chris who had first hand experience in catching the monumental growth riding the unicorn wave. In this episode we gain insights on what happened at Canopy. We take a deeper dive into the importance of company culture and how strategic decisions affect it. We look at the differences in strategies between a medical focused company vs an adult use cannabis company and why it's important to differentiate between the two types of customers. As M&A continues to accelerate in the sector, in this episode you'll learn how to view M&A opportunities through a unique qualitative lense. Companies mentioned: Canopy, Aphria, Aurora, HEXO & Trulieve.
June 16, 2021
#96 - Being Landlord to Florida's Dispensaries (ft. Real Estate Randy)
In this episode we dive deep into the state of the cannabis retail market in Florida. Florida has long been one of our favourite markets. Today's guest was on the forefront of the Florida market from a different side of the table. As a real estate developer focused on Florida retail, cannabis operators came onto Randy's radar. He helped these companies rapidly grow their retail footprint over the last few years by being able to source appropriately zoned properties and deal with the variety of issues that complicate the life of dispensaries. But Randy soon realized the payoff for accomplishing these deals could be enormous. In this episode: - How Randy stumbled into the industry - The early days of Florida's medical market - Doing GTI Florida's first deal - What the heydey of opening dispensaries was like - His thoughts on who's doing it well and how good Trulieve really is - The secrets to success at this stage of the industry Thanks to Randy for joining for a very fun and informative chat! Audio Note: There was an echo in this episode we mostly fixed. However the audio may at times be a little odd. Thanks for understanding
June 09, 2021
#95 - Patience Will be Rewarded for Cannabis Investors (ft. Alan Brochstein of 420investor)
In this episode we are joined by the leading cannabis analyst Alan Brochstein. Alan is known for being the sheriff of the wild west of cannabis and applying his deep analytical insights in the cannabis industry. He is founder of New Cannabis Ventures and shares his insights as "the maven" of 420investor. Alan regularly helps us form our opinions on the cannabis space and helps investors make better investment decisions. He joins us today in a broad ranging discussion about investor psychology, cannabis fundamentals, company specific discussions and much more. Thanks to Alan for joining us as always. Twitter - https://twitter.com/Invest420 420investor - https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/
June 02, 2021
#94 - Post Boris Debrief & Trulieve + Harvest Commentary
In this episode we unpack last week's interview with Boris Jordan and review in-depth some of the interesting points he raised. We also do a deeper dive into the Trulieve - Harvest merger and share our thoughts on why it's a true value play and what Kim may be hoping to achieve post-integration.
May 26, 2021
#93 - The Importance of Being The Biggest (ft. Boris Jordan, Chairman of Curaleaf Holdings)
In this jam-packed episode Boris Jordan joins us in an extremely candid conversation about Curaleaf Holdings. Boris is founder and Executive Chairman of Curaleaf Holdings and is one of the industry's most recognized faces. He is also a prolific cannabis investor having invested over $400M of hard cash into Curaleaf and more into other private cannabis opportunities. In this wide ranging discussion Boris shares stories and discussions on many topics including: - The First Inning of Curaleaf: how it all started and where we are now - Compliance & Custodying: how the recent compliance forced institutional selling is a repeat of 2019 - Guidance: What is driving the massive Q2 growth Curaleaf is projecting? - Interstate Commerce: why Boris thinks it is inevitable and how they are planning for it - Driving Down Costs: Technology that could cut manufacturing cost by 90% - Being National: Why it's important to be in highly competitive markets like California and Oregon - Wide & Deep: How the recent Trulieve & Harvest merger validates Curaleaf's early thesis - Florida: what mistakes were made, how they were fixed and the future - Cost of Capital: refinancing Curaleaf debt in 2022 at 7-8% without warrants - Private Investing: How Boris fills the "venture investing" role for Curaleaf - Being the Biggest: Why it matters - Margins & Growth: How Curaleaf compares to its competition - M&A: The importance of Select & Grassroots - Mistakes: Learning from past issues Thank you to Boris Jordan for joining us for this episode!
May 19, 2021
#92 - Cannabis Investors Shifting from Headlines to Fundamentals (ft. Pat Smith)
We are joined with a friend of the podcast, Pat Smith, former sell side analyst on Bay St. In this episode we cover a broad range of topics including how investors are switching from simply reading headlines to analyzing fundamentals and why cannabis continues to be a value play. We discuss how the broader markets are impacting our sector, as well touch on how crypto, gold, bond yields and the vaccine roll out could affect cannabis.
May 12, 2021
#91 - How to Invest Defensively in Cannabis
Note: there is an echo in the audio if you listen using headphones; it goes away if you listen through a speaker. Sorry about that, new audio set up this time! In this episode we talk about watching your back! Cannabis investing is buyer beware and investors should always be thinking about mitigating their downside risk. We discuss our personal viewpoints, investment philosophies and trading tactics for minimizing your downside risk in cannabis investing
May 05, 2021
#90 - Q&A: Keep Investing When Cannabis Pulls Back
In this episode we share our thoughts on the market before answering listener questions - Back to future: how our current pullback is eerily reminiscent of 2019 - Comparisons to crypto, psychedelics and other speculative asset classes - Legalization let down: why investors shouldn't be discouraged Listener Questions: - What do we think about the MSOS ETF? - Show new investors be worried if cannabis is regulated similar to alcohol? (see link) - How do we feel about certain speculative "penny stocks"? - Questions about cannabis companies exporting to the EU - Are the Big 5 MSOs the best investments in the sector? - If we had to start over again, what would our portfolios look like? Correction: We mentioned 300K patient count in Germany; 300K is the number of prescriptions written; patient count is estimated much lower at 60K
April 28, 2021
#89 - Q4 Financial Review of the Big 5 MSOs (ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
Buckle up boys and girls - in this epic episode we have the one and only CannaVestments (Nick Gastevich) joining us for a deep dive into the big 5 MSOs (now including Verano). In this episode we discuss - Overall thoughts on the market and having a long term focus - Core markets for each of the big 5 - Financial performance for Q4 and 2020 - Where the majority of profits are being generated today - What excites us for the future of each company Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review Connect with Nick: Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/ Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/
April 21, 2021
#88 - Learning from Your Mistakes in Cannabis Investing
Story time! In this episode we get nostalgic and share our experiences of the ups and downs of cannabis investing from 2017-2019. In what was truly the boom and bust of speculative cannabis investing we learned some hard lessons which can be instructive for newer investors. In this episode: - Starting with a bang in 2017 with Canopy and Aphria - Investing in a company at 30c and hitting a 20X return...then watching it come back - How a private California deal went wrong - Lessons learned through tough experiences
April 14, 2021
#87 - What Are Cannabis Investors So Afraid Of? - April 2021 Market Update
In this episode we dive into the psychology behind the sharp pullback our sector has seen and we ask - what are cannabis investors so afraid of? Agenda: - Common Retail Mistakes that we see taking place - The Momentum Trade dying down and what this means - New York Legalizes! What this means for the industry - SAFE and Legalization Talks - GTI and the Crisis of Confidence - What we were scared of in the past (and what's changed) - What are retail investors really afraid of? Ascend Wellness S1: https://sec.report/Document/0001628280-21-005806/ Wall Street Journal Article on Retail Investors Retreating: https://www.wsj.com/articles/individual-investors-retreat-from-markets-after-show-stopping-start-to-2021-11617528781
April 07, 2021
#86 - Intro to Reg A Financing (ft. Manuj Grover from Aim Gro Consulting)
We are joined by a special guest, Manuj Grover from Aim Gro Consulting. Manuj has over 20 years of experience in finance and has helped many private Cannabis companies gain access to US and Canadian investors via Regulation A (Reg A) raises, the most recent being Gage Cannabis. In this episode we cover Reg A raises, one of the many ways for retail investors to participate in pre IPO investments, and how it’s changing the investing landscape as we know it. The following topics are covered in more detail: Reg A vs. traditional private placements Criteria for tier 1 and tier 2 raises Why Reg A is gaining popularity Risks and rewards associated with investing in private companies Dangers associated with Reg A raises Link: Click here for SEC Form 1 Filings Companies mentioned: GTII, Gage Cannabis, Juva Life
March 31, 2021
#85 - Understanding Retail Investors & Avoiding Retail Mistakes
In this episode we delve deep into the mind of mysterious "retail investor". Since cannabis is a retail dominated market it is important to understand how this impacts volatility and the opportunities it creates. We cover 3 main topics: 1. Who is Retail? What constitutes Retail vs Institutional? 2. What are the most common mistakes retail investors make? 3. How can we avoid making these mistakes?
March 24, 2021
#84 - Doing Your Due Diligence (DYDD) in Cannabis
In this episode we delve into the importance of digging deep into potential cannabis investments We discuss: - Why its important to do due diligence (DD) before investing - Setting clear goals of what you hope to achieve - How DD should help your understanding of the business and the operators - What to look for in potential deals - Where to look (public and private) - Resources provided by the company - The importance of public filings
March 17, 2021
#83 - Buy the Dip for US Cannabis - March 2021 Market Update
Following up on last week's volatility cannabis investors are left asking - what now? In this episode we share our core thesis of buying weakness in US cannabis names (selectively and at the right valuations). However, we debate both sides of buying now vs waiting for more pain. In this market update: - Where are we now? - Why rising bond yields matter and what cannabis investors should know - How stimulus affects the short term - Catalyst: NY Legalization - Catalyst: SAFE & Uplisting - Catalyst: Federal legalization - How each of these could play out and how they could fail - Strategies for adding or waiting depending on your portfolio - Earnings season inbound for US Cannabis
March 10, 2021
#82 - Mindset, Strategy and Dealing with Losses
In this episode we talk about how rattling it can feel to see large pullbacks in the broader market leading to wilder swings in the cannabis markets. As we lived through this last week we ask - how do we prepare ourselves mentality for this volatility? - What happened last week? Understanding why the 10 year bond rate matters - Human psychology: why is loss felt more acutely than gain? - What does loss cause investors to do? - Dispelling popular investment myths - Using stop losses vs "diamond handing" - What no one talks about (openly) in investing - Simple strategies can be better than complicated ones
March 03, 2021
#81 - Don't Sell the Winners (ft. Todd Harrison of CB1 Capital)
We are joined by a special guest, Todd Harrison, who is the founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer of CB1 Capital. Todd is also an advisor for the prolific big board listed ETF MSOS which now has over $1B in assets. Todd is a seasoned professional who has over +30 years on Wall Street managing risk and researching financial market strategies. Todd is also quickly becoming one of the "go-to" investment voices in the cannabis industry. You can find him on Twitter (@todd_harrison), read his substack @ Cannabis Confidential or see him on TV educating the public on the cannabis opportunity (links below). This is an action packed episode, where we cover a broad range of topics. Starting off with he calm before the storm, Todd gives his perspectives into what lays ahead for the cannabis industry, how the ‘big boys’ have not sat at the table and how the Robinhooders have not ‘dipped their arrows’ yet. Todd gets into the power of the plant, cannabis 3.0, the idea of holding the best companies, how his mindset is evolving and much more. We discuss where both short term and long-term opportunities lie, whether it’s the privates or the public names. We hope you enjoy this episode and please make sure to DYDD and understand that nothing shared during this interview in considered financial advice. Thanks to Todd for bringing his signature upbeat style combined with financial insights. Companies mentioned: Verano, Parallel, GTI, Cresco, Columbia Care, AYR Wellness, Curaleaf. Find Todd online: Twitter: https://twitter.com/todd_harrison Substack Articles: https://toddharrison.substack.com/
February 24, 2021
#80 - US Cannabis is a rare Growth & Value Opportunity
In this episode we dissect how we think about Growth vs Value investing. While the market divides companies and investors into two separate camps they don’t need to be. Once in a while an opportunity comes along that gives us the chance to experience high growth at value prices! US Cannabis is that golden opportunity. Topics Covered: - Why Warren Buffett’s way of investing doesn’t work for everyone - What is Growth Investing? - What is Value Investing? - Why is it so hard to get growth and value together? - GARP Investing: Growth at a Reasonable Price - US Cannabis gives us the opportunity for growth and value - Using Cansortium as a live example - Verano RTO hitting the market - Playing Verano through SOL (and how this is an example of value investing) Howard Marks Memo on Value vs Growth: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/something-of-value.pdf
February 17, 2021
#79 - Weed Stocks Soar to All Time Highs - Now What?
As Canadian LPs like Tilray and Canopy enjoy historic runs (along with MSOs) we find ourselves asking - what now? Should we be taking chips off the table or holding strong? In this episode we discuss: - What we think is causing the parabolic run - The WallStreetBets / $GME effect coming to the cannabis industry - Short squeeze in full effect - Warning signs / red flags - Unusual trading activity on TLRY, Canopy, Supreme and MMEN - GTI's new $100M institutional raise - Question: Sell GTI or let it ride? - Question: What companies do we like for long-term investing and why? - Question: Won't Canadian LPs be able to enter the US soon? - Question: Trading vs Investing
February 10, 2021
#78 - The GameStop Story: What Cannabis Investors Should Learn
In this episode we delve into an issue that has become an absolute obsession of ours - GameStop. This story is the intersection of the stock market, retail investors and social media. Since cannabis is a retail dominated industry with a heavy presence on reddit, we can draw some great parallels to what we are seeing play out. There are many lessons to be learned here as our community is very likely to see an influx of retail investors in the near future. In this episode: 1) What happened? The Perfect Storm 2) Digging Deeper - looking past the obvious 3) Overcoming the initial emotional reaction 4) Robinhood, WeBull, Interactive Brokers & DTCC 5) Thinking about the end game 6) Lessons learned for cannabis investors 7) The dangers of reddit to making good investment decisions 8) So what? How to prepare ourselves for our "GameStop moment" Links & Resources referenced: Roaring Kitty / Deep Value GME Investment Thesis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alntJzg0Um4&ab_channel=RoaringKitty Interactive Brokers Chairman worried about integrity of system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RH4XKP55fM&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision WeBull CEO says Clearing House restricted trading by increasing collateral: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJ8AfbjW_A8&ab_channel=BloombergMarketsandFinance DTCC Clearing Naked Short History: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depository_Trust_%26_Clearing_Corporation#Naked_short_selling
February 03, 2021
#77 - Top Analyst Themes & Opportunities (ft. Andrew Semple of Echelon Wealth Partners)
We are joined by a special guest, Andrew Semple from Echelon Wealth Partners. Andrew was recently highlighted as the top performing analyst on Bay St by the Globe and Mail. He's a fundamental investor at heart and finds value in growth stocks. In this episode we cover a unique arbitrage opportunity in Canadian dispensaries and take a closer look at select US MSO's and states that have institutional investors excited. Companies mentioned: High Tide, Fire & Flower, GTI, Cresco, Columbia Care, AYR Strategies, Curaleaf. Links to Andrew’s Research: Click here for Andrew’s Weekly Summary Jan 15, 2021 Click here for Globe and Mail article - Top Performing Canadian Equity Analysts Click here for Analyst Disclosure Link
January 27, 2021
#76 - Deep Dive on 4 Mid Tier MSOs (ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
In this episode we are joined by seasoned cannabis investor and all around gentleman Nick Gastevich (known online as CannaVestments). You can find Nick on linkedin @ https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/or see his family office website @ https://www.vginvests.com/ The 4 “next tier” MSOs we cover are: 1) Columbia Care 2) AYR Strategies 3) TerrAscend 4) Jushi We discuss: - Why it’s important to dig into these mid-tier MSOs - How these players have a chance to out perform through M&A - How investors should analyze these company’s footprints - Why fundamentals and IR mismatch can be an opportunity - Which companies we like the most from a value perspective For each company we do a deep dive on: - The footprint and “core markets” - Which markets are the most attractive - How we think the company will perform in 2021 and beyond - How M&A has shaped the company - Revenue and EBITDA multiples - Valuation: where do we see value? Thanks to Nick for joining us – his insights are always greatly appreciated
January 20, 2021
#75 - The Best is Yet to Come for US Cannabis - Jan 2021 Market Update
After an extremely positive start to 2021 we find ourselves asking - should we be excited for what's ahead or nervous of the recent rally we've had? In this episode we discuss: - The democrats winning both senate seats and flipping the senate - The state of the market: should investors be worried by the speculation? - How investors are moving from "the middle to the edges" across the market - What is still to come for US cannabis - How values can evolve over time and how investors have to adapt - The various capital raises by Jushi, Columbia Care, Curaleaf, Planet 13 and more - Why what worked in the past for cannabis may not work in the future - The importance of the MSOS ETF and why it is just getting started - What happens as institutions start to come in the space - How to position yourself incase a correction comes - Why "this time is different" for cannabis investors
January 13, 2021
#74 - Big Predictions for Cannabis in 2021
In this episode we have some fun and share forecasts and ideas for what we expect to see in 2021 1) Multiple Ways to Win - there will be many different wants for companies and investors to profit in the new year 2) 2021 will be the "Year of Catalysts" - Potential for new states like New York to flip to rec (also RI, CT, NM, VA) - Markets transitioning to adult-use: AZ & NJ - Existing markets having organic growth: MI, FL, IL, PA - Medical markets opening up or issuing lics: GA, TX, MS - Potential for political tailwinds if Dems win both senate seats: SAFE and uplisting 3) Volatility + Exercise Caution - Investors have been spoiled by this bull market - Keep some cash, stay hedged and be prudent - Expect bumps along the way 4) Stay Flexible - things change quickly - investors will need to learn on the fly as the market evolves - your 2020 playbook that succeeded may need to change for 2021 - higher valuations mean investors need to be more selective and smarter 5) The Great Separation Continues - Which markets will continue to outperform and why? - Why will losing markets continue to struggle? 6) The Big 4 is no more - The big 4 MSOs is an antiquated concept - Introduction of Verano creates a big 5 - But in reality there is a big 10 already: AYR, Columbia Care, Ascend Wellness, Jushi & TerrAscend - Investors will have to adapt to these new names which will create opportunity - Where we see value and what we like 7) Scale will be more important - As capital is readily available and legalization accelerates the game has changed - Shift from pure focus on profitability to having the footprint to be a significant player
January 05, 2021
#73 - Lessons Learned - Reflecting on 2020
In this episode we reflect on what we've learned in 2020, why it is important and how we plan to improve our game going into 2021. Happy new year everyone! Discussed in this episode: - Humility: how this year humbled us and taught us that "no one knows" - How 2020 was a break out year for cannabis - What would we have done differently? - Things change quickly - how perception (and reality) shifted in 2020 - The Big 4 MSOs were the big winners of 2020; who will be the winners of tomorrow? - How the Fed helped prevent a financial disaster and propelled the markets to record highs - The AYR and LHS acquisition - what we think and how it went down (and why AYR/LHS could be a win-win) - Keep refreshing your thinking - don't get stuck on old perceptions of the market (or a company) - Back to the Future! How you can understand what will happen next - The information advantage - the 3 tiers of cannabis investors - Taking risk and making hay while the sun shines - The value of IR in a company's brand to investors (eg. Trulieve) - Winning Big, Losing Small: swing big at fat pitches - The importance of MSOs achieving scale going forward - A big thank you and new years message for our listeners Happy 2021!
December 30, 2020
#72 - The Art of Picking A Winning Cannabis Investment (ft. Alex Gastevich)
In this episode we are joined by a special guest and friend of ours, Alex Gastevich. Alex's family office (VGI Investments) has deep experience investing in cannabis since their first investment in GTI in 2014. He joins us to discuss how he and his family think about picking a winner in the cannabis space. In this episode: - How VGI first invested in the cannabis space in 2014 - How do you define a "winner"? - The importance of long term thinking and "intangible fit" - Private investments in cannabis - how does decision making differ? - Private MSO Ascend Wellness (AWH) and how we decided to invest - Understanding the fundamentals of a limited license market to pick a winner - How to become a better investor in this space - Why the Verano IPO will be one of the hottest in the space and why you should pay attention - Valuation - why it matters and how to think about it - Trading vs Investing with WeedMaps, Verano and SOL as examples - The importance of having an investing network and discussing opportunities from many viewpoints Thanks to Alex for joining us and sharing some great insights, you can connect with him below: VGI Family Office - https://www.vginvests.com/ Alex on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-gastevich-088a6043/
December 23, 2020
#71 - This Time is Different for Cannabis (ft. Alan Brochstein of 420investor)
Back by popular demand we have Alan Brochstein joining us! Alan is known across the industry as "the leading cannabis analyst" and joins us today to share his insight on why he is so bullish on the future of the Cannabis industry. "The Maven" knows this industry and its players inside and out and his 420investor service (https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/) is our favourite resource for making money in cannabis investing, especially in this bull market. In this episode we discuss: - Post-Election thinking and the Cannabis Bull Market - 4 Reasons why Alan is so bullish on cannabis (the 4 legs of the stool) - Technicals, Fundamentals, Valuation and Sentiment - which of these points to future upside? - Names that AB has liked this year and what he likes going forward - Why investing is "not a beauty contest" and what that means - How to invest in cannabis if you're afraid of a market pullback - Why Alan thinks cannabis investors shouldn't ignore Canada - How California is turning a corner and why The Parent Company could be interesting - IPOs & New Companies: Verano, The Parent Company, WeedMaps and more - Shifting from the Big 4 to the Big 10-15 MSOs - what will this mean for the market? - Revisiting the MSOS ETF and how it is a "game changer" - AB's big prediction for 2021 and what he's the most excited about Thank you to Alan for coming on and sharing his valuable insights. If you enjoyed this episode and want more of Alan's insights and picks, we highly recommend you look into a subscription for 420i @ https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/ We also suggest you sign up for AB's free weekly newsletter @ https://www.newcannabisventures.com/subscribe/
December 16, 2020
#70 - Tips & Tricks from a Cannabis Analyst (ft. Pat Smith)
The balance sheet might not be the most reflective of how well a company is doing. Today we are joined by an incredibly special guest, Patrick Smith, a special situations analyst from Bay St. Patrick shares with us some great insights and tips on how to quickly analyze financial statements and why the Income Statement and Statement of Cash Flows are a better gauge of where the company is headed. Patrick put together a comprehensive powerpoint to follow him during this episode. Please click here for 4 Front financial statements Please see our Google Drive here for the PowerPoint (and other episode files): https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/180DITZc5unsNnc-beUP8eOlHH_ANPq51?usp=sharing
December 09, 2020
#69 - The Second Wave of FOMO for Cannabis Investors
Please note we recorded this episode early Tues morning and the cannabis markets has turned ugly by close Tues night. Which is the important theme of this episode - as hype and speculation return in force to the cannabis industry investors need to be careful and be fearful when others are being greedy. In this episode: - What the hell is going on? - Explaining wild price action over the last few days - Rally of the "others" not the big 4 MSOs - ACB as a proxy for the wildness of this market and unsustainability - How to protect yourself while taking advantage of the "risk on" mindset
December 02, 2020
#68 - Q3 Financial Review of the Big 4 MSOs (ft. Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments)
In this episode we are joined by special guest Nick Gastevich. You may have seen Nick posting online under the name CannaVestments where he regularly shares financial analysis and commentary about US Cannabis companies. Nick has deep insight into the large MSOs and through his family office invested in GTI and Cresco as private companies. In this episode we cover Curaleaf, Trulieve, GTI & Cresco's Q3 results and for each company we discuss: 1. Top Line metrics and Growth 2. Gross Margin and adjusted EBITDA 3. Cash Flow & Capital Expenditures 4. Footprint analysis - which states are driving revenue and profitability? 5. Future growth - which states represent the most future upside? 6. Valuation - what multiple does the company trade at? Do we view it as cheap or expensive? This is an action packed episode - many thanks to Nick for joining us and sharing his insights
November 25, 2020
#67 - Navigating Cannabis through COVID - 2nd Wave Edition
Please note: we had a technical issue and one of our mics somehow had the "witness protection" filter put on. In this episode we discuss how cannabis investors should weigh the potential risks associated with COVID and the broader markets - Vaccine Optimism is pushing markets higher - is too much optimism priced in? - Vaccine is much welcome news and provides a light at the end of the tunnel - However many risks remain as we head into a prolonged "dark winter" - Lack of fiscal stimulus, lack of US federal COVID response and why a delayed transition is particularly bad this year - Risk feels mispriced - from bonds to commercial real estate this remains a real overhang - So what? Cannabis is performing very well but is not immune to broader markets - Lack of stimulus hurts consumers; market correction will hurt weed stocks - How do we plan around this? What measures can we take? - Portfolio and cash management over 2021 - Discussion of MediPharm Lab's BRUTAL Q3 and a longer term outlook - Thinking about B2B for Village Farms and Cresco Labs
November 18, 2020
#66 - The Future is Bright for US Cannabis (Post Election Analysis)
In this episode we digest the results of the US election and discuss why we are bullish on the future of US cannabis In this episode we discuss: - Why investors should be careful with this "sugar high" rally on Canadian LPs - What a Biden win means for US Operators - Why this is good for future M&A - How cannabis will fare under a split senate or under a republican senate - Why "more of the same" is actually a win for existing players - Why the NASDAQ remains the holy grail and how that impacts the current players - How The Golden Age of Investing is likely to be prolonged We finish off with a few listener questions from Alex, Zachary and Ben D
November 11, 2020
#65 - What's Next for Cannabis Investors? (Post Election Episode)
In this post-election special we discuss what the future holds for cannabis investors and how to manage uncertainty
November 05, 2020
#64 - Cannabis Investors Need to Keep Evolving
This week we discuss the importance of continually evolving your thinking in the rapidly developing cannabis landscape. - Why updating your mindset is so important - How to filter noise from real trend changes Topics that we discuss our updated thinking on: - Flower vs Extracted products - Brands in Flower (how and why Cookies has performed so well) - Vertical Integration - Importance and Long Term Viability of Dispensaries - Extractors - Rec vs Medical markets Lastly we give some final thoughts before the upcoming US election next week
October 28, 2020
#63 - The Golden Age of US Cannabis Investing
In this episode we share an optimistic outlook for US Cannabis regardless of who wins the Senate or White House in Nov. Instead we talk about the positive developments we expect to see by the time we get to the next US election in 2024 and why we might look back on this period as "The Golden Age". - What makes this "The Golden Age" for US Cannabis investing? Why does it not apply to Canada? - Lack of capital, lack of access and lack of good information - Pricing on Public vs Private cannabis companies - Radical transformation of the industry expected over the next 3-5 years - Future recreational states: NY, NJ, PA & FL (representing ~60M people) - Some glaring inefficiencies in our market and how they will be corrected over time - Positive developments at the municipal level - Less talked about markets like South Dakota, Montana and Mississippi (and why they matter) - Future volatility and downside risk still very likely (and why that's an opportunity) Listen to the speakers from last week's Benzinga conference for free @ https://www.benzinga.com/events/cannabis/virtual/
October 21, 2020
#62 - Answering Questions on the US Election & More
In this episode we take listener questions on the upcoming US elections and US Cannabis in general. In this episode: 1. Kamala Harris and the uncertainty of Timing 2. Will the US Decriminalize or Legalize? What’s the difference? 3. Will the FDA get involved in THC regulation like they did with CBD? 4. Do we have data to support the thesis that NASDAQ-listed weed stocks can outperform? 5. Low Volume Weed Stocks – should they be avoided? Why might they be a good opportunity? 6. Will the US eventually become like Canada as more capital flows in? Why or why not? 7. How will SAFE Banking affect Cannabis REITs? 8. What is the best Cannabis beverage so far and when will it come to the US? 9. Which players will benefit the most from coming state legalizations? 10. “Don’t sell the winners; come back in a few years” – why not buy and hold instead of trading? 11. Will Weed Stocks bubble then crash (similar to 2018) with the coming US Election? 12. Thoughts on options trading in Cannabis? 13. Which Fortune 500 companies do you see jumping into Cannabis? 14. What is the biggest risk to cash flows for US MSOs? 15. What is going on “behind the scenes” that investors should be aware of? 16. Which MSO would benefit the most from a Biden win or a “blue wave”? 17. Which MSO is the most undervalued? Thanks to pmitch, Ankur, BuildSoc, Airick-The-Great, SongWriter, Opposite Day, Alderho10 & Zebah for the questions!
October 14, 2020
#61 - Update on the US Election Trade for Cannabis Investors
A few months ago we discussed Cannabis trading ideas around the US Presidential Election - now with under 30 days to go until the big day we revisit the names we find interesting and our related strategies. The theme of today's episode is "sometimes things get complicated". - How Trump hitting pause on stimulus talks could hurt weed stocks - Reflecting on how the market has recovered since the March lows - How the upcoming election might cause an extreme outcome and civil unrest - Why the ballot initiatives in AZ and NJ are such a big deal - and which one matters more - 4 Nasdaq listed names that have the potential to heat up: Grow Gen, IIPR, Greenlane & Scots Miracle Grow - Which of these 4 we like the most and why - The Big 4 MSOs - how are they positioned going into the election and into 2021? - Demanding a margin of safety in your cannabis investments to hedge your risk
October 07, 2020
#60 - The Curious Case of Canadian Cannabis
In this episode we try to understand - why is Canada such a mess? Are we approaching an inflection point where things change? Is there a buying opportunity in Canada? 1. Who Cares? Why investors should pay attention to Canada 2. What Happened? How did we get here 3. Why did it happen? 4. Where are now? 5. Where are we headed? 6. Is it a buying opportunity? 7. What areas or indicators are we watching? **Note: audio quality is a little funky as we adjust to the new studio but gets better after the 5 min mark; we will improve on the next one!
September 30, 2020
#59 - Understand Risk vs Reward in Cannabis Investing
In this episode we delve into the concept of risk adjusted return when investing in cannabis: - What is Risk? - How do we measure and think about risk? - What risks are specific to the Cannabis industry that investors need to watch out for? - Why is it so important to think about risk in this industry - Why valuation is one of the most important things to investors - Trulieve's PA Acquisitions - how do risk and return play into making this decision - How should investors think about potential return? - Balancing risk and return in your cannabis portfolio - Examining names like Liberty Health, Trulieve and Ianthus in terms of risk vs reward
September 23, 2020
#58 - Momentum vs Value Investing in Cannabis
In this episode we explore the benefits and challenges of chasing momentum or seeking value in the cannabis industry. Topics: 1. Momentum Investing - What is it? - How do we find momentum opportunities - How does it apply to the cannabis space and why does it matter 2. Value Investing - What is it? - What makes a good value investment - Examples of cannabis investments which are value oriented (LHS & Vireo) - Pitfalls of value investing 3. Momentum vs Value - What should investors look at in cannabis - Why the big 4 MSOs might experience superior growth - How capital raising creates a competitive advantage - Cannabis vs Tech and "winner take all" 4. Our Strategies - Investment decisions made in 2020 - Private vs Public investments - US Election in Nov - which stocks we've purchased to try to ride the momentum
September 16, 2020
#57 - Understanding the Big 4 MSOs (ft. CannaVestments aka Nick Gastevich)
In this episode we are joined by Nick Gastevich who is known on the forums as CannaVestments. He is known for deep cannabis knowledge, a keen analytical eye and being an all-around nice guy. Nick runs a family office along with his brother - they started in the industry in 2014 with an investment in Green Thumb. He joins us on this episode to do a deep dive on the "Green Chip" cannabis names which have captured investor attention lately. In this episode we review: 1. Green Thumb (GTI) 2. Trulieve 3. Cresco Labs 4. Curaleaf For each company we review - Footprint of each company - Key markets for each company (now and in the future) - Which markets and assets are the most exciting - Q2 Financials - Revenue, Gross Margins & Adjusted EBITDA - 2020 & 2021 Earnings Multiples - Valuations of each company: now and in the future - Ranking of the big 4 at current prices Note: This episode was recorded a few weeks ago, since then Florida has legalized edibles
September 09, 2020
#56 - Times Are Changing for Cannabis Investors (ft. Alan Brochstein of 420investor)
In this week's episode we are joined by Alan Brochstein of 420investor (https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/) and New Cannabis Ventures (https://www.newcannabisventures.com/). Alan (aka "The Maven") is one of the leading providers of original thought and analysis in the cannabis space. He runs 3 cannabis-only model portfolios on 420i and he joins us to talk about his investing philosophy as well as how things are changing since he started in 2014. Topics Covered: - Intro to Alan, 420i and New Cannabis Ventures - The Three Waves of Cannabis Investing since 2012 First Wave - Total Speculation & Garbage Companies - Late 2012 to Early 2016 Second Wave - Canadian Legalization Wave - 2016 to early 2020 Third Wave - US MSO Fundamentals & Potential Legalization - Mid 2020 to ? - How Alan called a Cannabis Bull Market in May 2020 - "This Time is Different" for Cannabis Companies - The one time Alan moved to all cash in his model portfolio - "How the Market works" with a live example - Technical vs Fundamental Investing (or Momentum vs Value) - Mistakes Made & Timing the Market - The new MSOS ETF by AdvisorShares - How will this NASDAQ listed ETF affect weed stocks? - How Investors may be able to "Front-run" the MSOS ETF - Investing for the 2020 Election - Risks and Catalysts - Inefficiencies in Cannabis presents great opportunity for Investors - The Big 4 MSOs Potentially Evolving to the Top 10 - The Most Common Mistake Investors Make - Is a Mass Extinction Event still in the works? Thanks to Alan - this is an insight packed episode!
September 01, 2020
#55 - How to Invest in Weed Stocks (2020 Update)
In this episode we do a 2020 update to our "How to Invest in Weed Stocks" episode from 2019. A lot has changed in the year since and it's important to upgrade your game accordingly! We discuss how things have changed and the mindset you should have going forward. In this episode: 1. Understanding Risk in Cannabis Investing 2. What you should learn about 3. Advantages of learning 4. Understanding the cannabis business 5. Deciding to Invest - Questions to answer before Pulling the Trigger 6. Trading vs Investing in Cannabis
August 26, 2020
#54 - The Biggest Mistakes We've Made in Cannabis (ft. Alex Gastevich)
In this episode we have our first guest ever! Alex Gastevich runs a family office along with his brother and mother. Based out of Chicago the Gastevich family were early round investors in GTI in 2014. Alex joins us to discuss: - Investing in early round Cannabis companies (GTI and Medipharm) - The value of having multiple perspectives in investing decisions - What's the craziest thing you've seen in the cannabis space? - What makes a cannabis company successful? - What are signs of being in a cannabis bubble? - What's the biggest lost you've taken in this industry? - What's your end game? This was a very fun episode, thanks to Alex for joining us!
August 18, 2020
#53 - Why US MSOs are Outperforming Canadian LPs
In this week's episode we answer questions regarding the amazing performance of the large MSOs: - Are US MSOs better than the Canadian LPs? - Why are they out performing? - Why the US is a better place for the cannabis sector - What makes a market successful for cannabis companies (Canada, California, Oregon vs Illinois, Florida & NJ) - Canopy vs GTI vs Trulieve - Are the US companies over priced? - Are the Canadian names priced for value? - The power of the NASDAQ listing - A word of caution on chasing momentum
August 11, 2020
#52 - Bullish on Cannabis & Bearish on COVID (Aug 2020 Market Update)
In this market update we revisit our concerns from the March COVID episode and the January Mass Extinction Event episode. We cover feeling bullish on cannabis (and why) as well as understanding why weed stocks are so hot (and if it makes any sense).
August 05, 2020
#51 - How to Invest for US Legalization of Cannabis
In this week's episode we are excited about acceleration of future legalization of cannabis in the US and we discuss trading and investing strategies for cannabis stocks. 1) Biden - Sanders Task Force Plan - How real is this? How does it play into the coming Democratic National Convention? - Social Justice reform, Police reform and change all accelerate cannabis legalization - DNC provides an opportunity for democrats to discuss ending the war on drugs CAUTION - legalization hype is building quickly but actual legalization takes years to pass and implement 2) Investment Strategies for Legalization Hype Many different ways to play this with various risk/reward - which makes the most sense? a) "The Big 4" - GTI, Trulieve, Cresco & Curaleaf - obvious candidates as retail comes in b) Ancillary & US-Listed Companies - IIPR, Greenlane & GrowGen c) Tertiary Plays - Canadian LPs, Foreign Companies, Low Cost Countries Remember: Hype is not rational - capital will flow regardless of valuations US Legalization hype will make Canadian hype look like "a drop in the bucket" 3) Institutional Capital Flowing into US Cannabis - How will it play out? - When should investors get in? When to get out? - What are the best risk/reward strategies?
July 28, 2020
#50 - Gambling vs Investing in Weed Stocks
This episode we explore: Is Cannabis investing or Gambling? Whats the difference? Why does it matter? Examining your own behavior and changing it
July 22, 2020
#49 - What Will US Legalization of Cannabis Look Like?
We're finally back in the studio! This week we look forward at the various ways the US could legalize cannabis 1) Why You Should Care about US Legalization - US is the crown jewel of the international market - Over $12B USD in state-legal sales in 2019 (vs $1.2B CAD for Canada) - Huge capital available once NASDAQ & NYSE listings are available - US has higher prices, limited licenses and far less government regulation for cannabis 2) How will US Legalization Go Down? - Likely to be a phased approached as opposed to one big legalization Several possibilities for how it can be done: a) Decriminalization b) De-scheduling or Re-scheduling (may come under FDA regulation) c) SAFE Act - access to banking and lending d) STATES Act - allows state law to be compliant with federal law e) Full Legalization - federally mandates legalization across entire country 3) What is the Biden Plan? Will it actually happen? - Biden Plan is a marketing document designed to excite the base - We need to see Biden mention the plan or champion it before believing it - Biden Plan involves medical legalization + STATES Act 4) How Will Legalization Change the Industry? - Effect on industry will depend on the type of legalization - SAFE vs STATES vs Full Federal Legalization - Being on US Exchanges will be the biggest catalyst 5) Will cannabis be allowed to cross state lines? 6) How to Invest around Legalization
July 15, 2020
#48 - COVID isn't Cancelled (but Neither is Cannabis) - July 2020 Update
Market Update: COVID risk is growing rapidly but Cannabis is looking good - Broader market remains buoyed by Fed Support but valuations are stretched - COVID is accelerating across US and is a massive threat with exponential growth - Lack of political will to close down economy again; somehow wearing a mask has become a political issue - Relation to cannabis: do you look at the stats or listen to the pundits? Cannabis - Has performed very well in pandemic; strong sales; essential status - Cannabis is perfect for a COVID / isolated world - Long term: accelerates opportunity for legalization and reforms - RISK: stimulus still flowing, things can slide backwards (Ontario pulling back delivery and curbside) o Nevada can be soft ; But updates from AYR Q2 are encouraging o Many lower quality companies on the edge - Diving deeper into AYR Strategies (CSE: AYR) - Sentiment: Investors are upset and can easily dump despite good results (eg. LHS) - Separation of winners and losers but many retail investors don’t really care (gamble vs investing)
July 08, 2020
#47 - What's Going on with Extractors in Canada?
In this episode we dive into Medipharm Lab's Q1 2020 results which greatly disappointed the market - What's going on with LABS? Why did it have such a drop off in revenue? - How does it compare to Valens? - Examining their recent $37M financing (good and bad) - How the slow 2.0 rollout is hurting the extraction industry - Why 2019 was such a good year for LABS - will it recover? - How will the extraction landscape look in the next 1-3 years?
June 24, 2020
#46 - How to Play This Bull Market without getting Whiplash (June 2020)
In this episode we discuss strategies for taking advantage of the current bull market the Fed has created - The realization that the Fed will actively try to prevent the market from falling to prevent fear from dominating the market (as shown on Mon) - The market is likely to remain distorted which creates opportunities for investors - How do we play this bull market while being cautious about the disconnect between prices and fundamentals? - Debating investing in legacy business like Airlines and Theatres STRATEGY - PATIENCE! Keep your powder dry as it takes time for the market to re-adjust - Thinking of investing like private placements with the ability to hold for 1-3 years if prices tanks - Buying top tier companies like Green Thumb (GTI) with the understanding it may take a while to grow into the value - Deploying cash selectively in overlooked names with good risk/reward - How? Looking for small cap cannabis companies which have good fundamentals but have lagged in share price - Liberty Health (LHS) as an example - Comparing Canada to the US LOOKOUT - Don't chase high prices on low volume - Emotional investors are back! Watch out for them
June 17, 2020
#45 - Priced to Perfection (Market Update - June 1, 2020)
In this episode we talk about the unbridled optimism in the general equity markets and how that flows into cannabis. - SPY is 7-10% HIGHER than it was 1 year ago - Market effectively pricing in V shaped recovery - Does this make sense? Should investors be buying? - The importance of a margin of safety in investing - How cannabis has been buoyed by the broader markets - The "Big 4" MSO: GTI, TRUL, Curaleaf & Cresco - Potential risks being overlooked by the market
June 03, 2020
#44 - The Stock Market vs The Real Economy
In this episode we delve into understanding the disconnect between real life and the stock market. Why is the S&P above 3,000 when the economy is frozen? Why are cannabis stocks on an absolute tear? Does this make any sense? What can we learn from this disconnect and how does it influence our investing philosophy? Two Key Principles: 1. Anything can happen in markets 2. Nobody knows what will happen next
May 29, 2020
#43 - 5 Reasons to Be Excited About Cannabis
After a strong week for cannabis stocks we delve into the reasons for optimism for cannabis investors. 1. Strong Results Prove out the Investment Thesis a. GTI posting 25% EBITDA on $100M USD of revenue b. TRUL likely to post 50%+ EBITDA on similar revenue 2. New Markets set to Open a. NJ (9M) and AZ (7M) both on the 2020 ballot b. NJ could cause domino effect with PA (13M), NY (20M) 3. COVID-19 Proving Sales are “sticky” a. Cannabis being recession proof / resistant; defensive sector 4. Canada Getting Better a. 2.0 rollout and Ontario retail expansion b. ACB and Canopy improving (not out of the woods yet) 5. Wildcard – SAFE Act & Legalization / Election Talk a. Possibility to get SAFE through senate with COVID bill b. Potential election talk related to cannabis legalization
May 20, 2020
#42 - What Did Warren Buffett Do? (+ Short Term Trading vs Long Term Investing in Cannabis)
In this episode we examine the key take aways from Berkshire's 2020 Annual General Meeting (AGM). Why did Buffett sell his entire airline holdings (~$6.5B) at a loss? What can we learn from the legendary investor with regards to his view on the current market? We also discuss how we look at investing from a long and short term lens. Can we really be long term investors in this space? Are we better off taking short term profits? When does it make sense to "sell it all" and move to the sidelines?
May 06, 2020
#41 - Don't Believe the Hype! (Examining the April 2020 Market Rally)
In this episode we touch on the recent developments in the general markets and cannabis stocks. The market has rallied considerably in the last few weeks to within 15% of it's pre-COVID all-time highs. Does that make sense? Why is it reacting this way? And what's with the recent cannabis rally? We go through what we think is happening and why you should exercise caution before chasing the dragon.
April 29, 2020
#40 - 420 Special Year In Review - From Illegal to Essential
Happy 4/20! In this episode we take a step back and review how much the cannabis industry has advanced in the last year. 1. From Boom to Bust - how the capital markets overshot and are now correcting 2. Milestones - major progress has been made in the last year 3. Is it a good time to invest in cannabis? Positives and negatives
April 22, 2020
#39 - The New Normal
Is the S&P 500 overvalued or cheap? That depends on what you think the "new normal" will be. In this episode we discuss how the economy may look very different post-COVID and how long it could take to recover: The strong market rally - what are investors thinking? 3 reasons why the future normal could be very dissapointing 1) Record high unemployment - 16M+ new claims in the last 3 weeks (staggering) 2) Decreased consumer spending as confidence falls off a cliff 3) Longer term structural issues - what does "opening up" look like? CANNABIS: - Bad news for Harvest (HARV) and Ianthus (IAN) - Good news on Illinois numbers ($188M USD for Q1 Sales) - Aurora (ACB) 12:1 stock split and new ATM facility - what this means - IIPR Short Report - more on this next episode
April 14, 2020
#38 - NOT Business As Usual
In this episode we dissect the recent market rally and urge caution that there is much more pain to come - How Deep will COVID go? How long will the lockdown last? - Is it time for investors to be fearful or be greedy? - Reasons why the market is underpricing future risk - Buy/Sell/Hold - what makes sense? - How Alternative Investments fare when the general market corrects - How fundamentals and valuation may change even after COVID passes - Concerns and things to watch in cannabis - Examining Medipharm Lab's Q4 results - Village Farms BRUTAL Q4 Financials - Exercising caution on HEXO
April 01, 2020
#37 - THC: Things Have Changed (March 2020)
In this episode we delve deeper into the market mayhem that has happened over the last 10 days - things have changed for investors. - How long will the COVID shutdown last? - How deep will this go? How bad will it get? - How should investors change the way they look at the markets (broader markets vs cannabis) - The worst is yet to come - our thesis on how the next few months could play out - Why we are selling and raising cash in anticipation of what's next - Buckle up! Be ready for a longer shutdown than you might think - How cannabis is behaving so far and what to keep an eye on going forward - What will be the best investing opportunities in the coming weeks PS - please excuse the audio quality; we are recording remotely on our phones!
March 25, 2020
#36 - Investors PANIC over Corona - How Worried Should You Be?
In this episode we do a 180 on coronavirus and admit how we underestimated the virus and its potential to completely turn our economy and life upside down. We dig into how markets are reacting, how bad it is going to get and how this will ultimately affect broader markets and of course, cannabis investing. - We were 110% wrong - here's what we underestimated - The Shutdown: stopping the virus means pausing our economy and way of life - Mass extinction event now applies to many small business outside of cannabis - How bad is this? How long will it last? - Predictions: How will government support business and households? - Is this a 30 day event? Or a 6 month event? What happens if it goes longer than we think? - How will cannabis behave in a shutdown? Will consumers buy online? - Weed Stocks in a corona era - how will they behave? Who will win? - Should investors open their wallets or proceed with caution
March 17, 2020
#35 - Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt in Cannabis + The Canopy Problem
In this episode we explore the irrationality and panic which has pummeled stock markets and absolutely brutalized cannabis markets. We also something of a market update where we discuss news on Canopy, Cresco, Village Farms and the Florida Market. - What happens when there is a panic and a "rush to the exits" - What we are seeing in the market today - Does the market know more than you? - Don't expect the market to act rationally in the short-medium term (eg. VFF settlement) - Several overhangs which will create drag for cannabis investors - Canopy shutting down 2 BC greenhouses - Cresco President abruptly "resigns" (bad sign!) - How bad were Tilray Earnings (hint: really really bad) - Florida House looking to cap THC at 10% for under 21 patients - 2 questions to ask yourself before investing in cannabis today
March 11, 2020
#34 - Corona & Cannabis - Buying Quality Names at Deep Value
In this episode we talk about the recent pummeling the cannabis markets (along with the broader markets) have taken due to Coronavirus fears. How does this relate to our on-going thesis of a 2008-style cannabis liquidity crisis? What are we buying right now? - What is going on? How Corona is affecting broader markets - Are the fears overblown? What potential risks are there? - How does Corona affect the Cannabis Markets? - What quality names are we buying at "deep value"
March 04, 2020
#33 - 5 Signs a Cannabis Company Is Going Broke
In this episode we emphasize the importance of digging into a company's financials for yourself to see if any warning signs are present. It is CRITICAL you are looking at a company's financials (sedar.com) - How we realized there was a "mass extinction" event coming - Why we sounded the alarm bells 30 days ago - Learning from the companies who went broke: DYME as a case study Warning Signs: 1. Cash balance rapidly declining 2. Large losses on income statement (and the importance of gross margins) 3. Cash Flow Statement vs Income Statement (why this matters) 4. "Circle The Drain" Financing - equity or debt raises at smaller amounts and worse terms 5. Lawsuits - Company gets into more lawsuits and disputes as they can't afford to pay their bills Bonus - Importance of receivables and taxes payable **Important - take a holistic view of the company. Having one of these items present is not nearly as having several red flags
February 27, 2020
#32 - Mistakes Were Made (But Did Anyone Learn Anything ?)
In this episode we go over mistakes we made in our cannabis investing decisions and how we've improved our game since. This is especially important as we are seeing investors repeating the same mistakes. - Where did we go wrong? The importance of humility and continual learning - Checking your ego at the door on the way up - Investors are not learning - same mistakes are being repeated - Deals "priced to perfection" - investors not getting paid appropriately for uncertainty - Relying on headlines and "experts" for information (which is inherently biased) - Getting information from online echo chambers of cheerleaders (weak surface level due diligence) - Not actively seeking out negative or contrary opinions - Investing on hype and potential rather than fundamental prospects Forward Looking: What if Bernie Sanders wins the election? Discussing federal legality
February 20, 2020
#31 - Fixing The Cannabis Industry - Layoffs & Restructurings
Hello CIN listeners! In this episode we talk about Aurora and other companies who have cut jobs. How do we right the ship? How do we fix the existing mess that we are seeing?
February 13, 2020
#30 - 4 Reasons Why Cannabis is a Fantastic Investment Opportunity Longer Term
Although we continue to warn investors for the fallout about to occur we also want to explain why we are still actively investing in the cannabis space. In this episode we discuss the major factors which will drive the sector longer-term: 1. Canada - 2.0 Product Ramp & Ontario Retail Stores (~500 expected by end of 2021) 2. New Markets - International (Mexico, Israel, EU) + US (New Jersey, New York, Arizona and more) These two points alone will potentially bring billions of dollars of sales online in the next 2 years! 3. Rise of CBD and other Compounds (CBN, CBG, and more to come) 4. Potential for Bio Synthetic Cannabinoids It's important to keep a longer-term focus as it takes time to build real businesses and have new programs roll-out.
February 10, 2020
#29 - Cannabis 2.0: First Impressions
In this fun episode we talk about what we've seen in Toronto for Cannabis 2.0 Products. Some topics we cover: - The Rollout of 2.0 Products - Types of products we've seen - Which products are selling the best - Concerns for the future - Some of the best products we've seen so far
February 06, 2020
#28 - Warning Lights Flashing for Cannabis Investors in Jan 2020
In this week's episode we digest our warning from last week and discuss some issues which have come to the surface. Many of these are warning lights flashing for weed investors to exercise caution: - How we got here: people are not paying attention - BMO issues an optimistic Price Target on Canopy for $40 CAD. Why this matters (and why they're wrong) - Discussing Medipharm's $9.8M CAD statement of claim against HEXO - Are we wrong? Is the negativity in the space already "priced in"? - Where are we now: Hot Air Balloon Metaphor - Should companies just stay private instead? - Promo companies not promoting - what that means - Long-term bullish: Why the winning companies will benefit from all this
February 03, 2020
#27 - Overcoming Bias & Making Good Investment Decisions
In this episode we discuss several types of bias we see in ourselves and other cannabis investors. The ultimate goal is to understand patterns of thought and adjusting to make better investing decisions. - Understanding your own bias from your investing background - Dissociating your political opinions from business reality - Avoiding group think and online echo chambers - Be careful of confirmation bias and avoiding negative information
January 30, 2020
#26 - A Serious Warning for Cannabis Investors in 2020
In this episode we lay out a serious warning to our network about the potential for an impending capital & liquidity crisis for the cannabis sector in 2020. Companies are rapidly burning cash and financing is very tough to secure. Many companies (especially smaller ones) are running out of runway faster than you might think. Why is no one talking about it? - What is going on? - Fundamentals vs Capital Markets - How bad is it? (hint: pretty damn bad) - Predicting what happens next - How to protect yourself as an investor - Survivors will be long term winners - Medium-Long term very bullish on the cannabis space but have to pick your spots accordingly - What to look for in all of your holdings to evaluate your own risk - Are we wrong? Thoughts on things we may have missed **Do you agree or disagree? We'd love to hear your thoughts - CINpodcast@gmail.com
January 27, 2020
#25 - Big Predictions for 2020 Cannabis Investing
In this episode we make some predictions for what is to come in 2020 for cannabis investing. In this episode: 1. "The Great Divide" - Winners & Losers Emerge - Mentality will shift: sector will stop moving as one and winners will emerge - Shifting from ETF mentality to stock picking (from passive to active) - Example: Trulieve should separate from the pack given their isolation in Florida and strong financial performance - Losers will lose HARD while winners will distinguish themselves 2. Predicting Sales for Canada in 2020 - The $3B sales bet...under or over? - Major catalyst for 2020 sales with Cannabis 2.0 and Ontario store increases - Will be a slow rollout for both, so the ramp will be gradual - Many unknowns still to be seen (like how Beverages sell) - Still a short list of winners in Canada who will be in a better position in 2021 3. The US & Canada - The Separation Begins - US will begin to outperform Canada - Illinois and Michigan will prove to be very strong markets with a strong ramp in 2020 but will really shine in 2021 - Data and results will drive investors to invest in the US in 2020 - 280E Taxation remains the biggest issue US operators will face - Big States which may go Rec: Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Arizona (I mentioned Florida but their initiative is now dead) - New Jersey seems the most likely and represents a very lucrative market ("Florida 2.0") - Mexico story looks promising, Europe story is less attractive - CORRECTION: MediPharm did NOT get their EU GMP certification yet, they got their Australian GMP 4. Rough Patch Ahead - Be Careful! - Capital crunch has turned into a capital crisis - very difficult to raise funds - Very few companies have gone under despite being very close to it - Circle the Drain Financing: Desperate companies will take crappy deals to try to save the ship - Some companies will turn it around, others won't - Bankruptcies will cause a domino effect and pull many others down with it - Ramp up of sales in Canada will be slow and won't be fully realized until H2 2021 - The general cannabis market will get punished as this occurs - There is no bottom for crappy companies! Some will go to zero! Especially those low on cash and burning fast - The companies who survive will come out stronger and better positioned 5. M&A From Unlikely Sources - Companies will look to merge to survive...but cash is king! - Potential for non-cannabis companies with cash on balance sheet combining with struggling cannabis companies 6. Up & Downs Continue - Things will not go straight up or down. Volatility will continue - FOMO is dead. Be patient, be picky and take profits! - No federal legalization in US in 2020 but 2-3 major states to go rec QUESTION: What are your predictions? Email us!
January 16, 2020
Welcome to 2020: The Boom & The Bust - Market Update - Jan/7/2020
Happy New Year! In this market update we cover the good and bad for the start of 2020! - 2020 will be a year of Strong Catalysts driven by Fundamental Growth - There will also be significant headwinds to navigate Illinois Goes Full Rec: - Banner first day with $3.3M USD sales + $2.2M on 2nd day - $11M USD of sales in 5 days (with customers paying $20 USD/gram of flower) - Illinois will be a great market in 2020 and 2021, with a strong sales ramp and limited licenses Ontario Retail: - 45 dispensaries to open in Ontario Q1-Q2 (licenses were granted last year) - 160 new retail licenses in 2020 in Ontario (~225 granted by end of 2020 and ~475 by end of 2021) - This will greatly help ramp Canadian sales in 2020 and 2021 Cannabis 2.0 Launches in Canada: - 2.0 products shipping this week to retail and online next week (in Ontario) - These High Margin products will greatly drive sales for the entire industry - Very limited supply of products initially with many more to roll out over next 6 months - Will be similar to flower – under supply then over supply - We debate the strict marketing rules and how fast companies should be moving Vaping Bans: Quebec banning vapes and raising age to 21 Alberta delaying vapes until spring (at least) US News: - Debt Deals for Curaleaf ($275M USD) + Harvest ($73M USD) Curaleaf - $275M USD debt deals // Harvest - $90M USD debt deal - Trulieve Short Report Florida – Rec vote not looking good, suing for more time (flower got approved by lawsuit) See full Florida point-by-point rebuttal here: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ebztnd/my_analysis_of_the_trul_trulieve_short_report/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
January 07, 2020
#24 - Improve Your Game! 5 Lessons Learned in 2019 for Cannabis Investors
If you are not changing the way you invest going into 2020 you are in trouble! In this end of the year episode we recap the top 5 lessons learned for Cannabis Investing. #1 - No Excuses, Play Like A Champion - Every investor is the CEO of their own account - Take full responsibility for your own results and learn from your mistakes - "It's not your fault but it is your problem" #2 - LEARN LEARN LEARN & Pay Attention - The importance of investing time and energy into learning this space - Continually evolving your thinking in this fast moving environment - Building a network of trustworthy investors to bounce ideas off of #3 - Investing vs Trading in Cannabis - Shifting away from the negative stigma of Trading - Learning what can affect short term movements of a stock - Marrying the best of both worlds to find the strategy that works best for you #4 - Read Data NOT Headlines - Importance of reading past the headlines - Acknowledge your weaknesses and improve upon them - especially if they are financial related - Future will be financial and results based - make sure you are analyzing for yourself! - Good data is like a crystal ball - Beware paid and biased information sources (including investment banks) #5 - Quality over Quantity - Shifting from a broad portfolio of shiny companies to a consolidated list of winners - Willing to make lower profits in favour of lower risk - Getting paid for taking risk on earlier stage names - Running sensitivity on valuations to see what the margin for error is CLOSING - NOMO FOMO - This business is extremely capital intensive, even the best companies will need to keep raising - Investors will have chances to buy into these companies along the way as equity raises will be needed - Keep evolving your mindset into 2020 and beyond! Please note: This episode was recorded before the Trulieve short report came out. Our detailed breakdown of the Trulieve report here: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ebztnd/my_analysis_of_the_trul_trulieve_short_report/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x Next Episode: Top Predictions for 2020
December 18, 2019
#23 - How to Evaluate Private Investment Opportunities in Cannabis
In this episode we talk about how we kick the tires on potential private investments. - How we evaluate potential private deals - Mentality behind venture investing - Potential Red Flags & Deal Killers - Personal Frameworks for Evaluating Private Deals Next Week: Stay tuned for fresh episodes on 2020 predictions and top picks!
December 11, 2019
#22 - Buyer Beware! Check These 4 Things Before Buying a Weed Stock
In this episode we explore 4 common overhangs which can weigh on Cannabis Stocks. Most of these things are unique to small cap and venture investing. - Overhang: Factor which negatively impacts a stock (typically short to medium term) - How this helps answer "Is This the Right Time to Buy"? 1. Cap Table / Share Structure - Understanding the importance of the cap table - Why previous rounds of financing matter and the "Game Theory" involved - How warrants and cheap paper can drag on a stock 2. Share Unlocks - Unlocks can create a huge overhang, real or perceived - How Mergers & Acquisitions create large unlocks - Resource for US MSO unlocks: https://www.statesidecannabisinvestors.com/calendar 3. Timing - Examining two low volume seasons: Summer & Tax-Loss Period - Debating if timing matters for fundamental investors 4. Capital Raises - Why capital raises drop the share price - Why capital raising is actually not a bad thing in the long-run - What to look out for (straight equity vs debt vs warrant coverage) - How to Predict a Future Capital Raise **Note: Episode was recorded prior to MedMen/Pharmacann being called off (but the concept still applies)
November 28, 2019
#21 - The 5 Stages of the Cannabis Bubble (and What's Next)
In this episode we examine an article titled "The Cannabis Bubble has Burst". Were we in a bubble? What is a bubble? What does this mean for cannabis investors? - The definition of an investment bubble (valuations vs fundamentals) - Why it's so difficult to identify a bubble - The 5 Stages of a Bubble: Displacement, Boom, Euphoria, Selling & Panic 1. Displacement: How it starts 2. Boom: Quick money being made and momentum builds 3. Euphoria: FOMO is king and the investment goes mainstream 4. Selling: Sophisticated Capital exits 5. Panic: The Sell-Off deepends and the bubble bursts - Mistaking luck and risk-taking behaviour for genius - Is Cannabis A Bubble? Why or Why Not? - How US Operators will drive fundamental value over time - How strong operators will dominate the market in a capital crunch
November 25, 2019
#20 - Explaining Sale Leasebacks: The Intersection of Cannabis, Real Estate & Financing
In this episode we dive into the world of Sale Leaseback transactions. We are seeing this pop up more and more as the capital crunch gets worse. - What are Sale Leasebacks? - How do they work? - What's special about Cannabis related Leasebacks? - Why are we hearing so much about these kind of deals? - Who is Innovative Industrial REIT (IIPR) and how important are they to the industry? - Would Manish buy IIPR or another Cannabis REIT today? Why or Why Not?
November 21, 2019
#19 - All Time Highs or All Time Lows? What's Next for Weed Stocks?
What happens next for Cannabis stocks? Will the market bounce back to new highs or is there more pain in sight? - Short Term Trading vs Long Term Investing - Yes and No: Why some companies will surge and some will fail - Sector wide sell-off hurts everyone - Winners starting to bounce back and differentiate themselves - Why many companies will fail going forward - How did we get here? Pre Legalization hype based investing - Old Method: Using "Funded Capacity" and Lofty Projections - Today: Matured to Show Me instead of Tell - Examining Revenue vs Margins vs Earnings vs Cashflow - Using Origin House as an example - selling off companies that don't smell like Winners - Balancing Revenue Growth with Burning Cash - How do we find winners? What to look for (cash, margins, earning potential, market, business type) - Cash and Cashflow and Capital Markets are KING - How to Play the Volatility in the Sector (trading vs investing) - Future Catalysts and Landmines
November 19, 2019
How to Fix Canada's BROKEN Cannabis Economy - Market Update - Nov/14/2019
In this episode we explore the pains and issues Canada is having. What are the core problems? What are the solutions? Will these problems be solved? When? - Forecasting the Canadian Weed Stocks going forward (how to play the volatility) - The Good News: Many of the problems are fixable and will eventually be solved - The Bad News: We are 12-24 months away from any earnings relief. Many companies won't survive - Explaining today's issues in terms of Supply & Demand - Companies are missing revenue guidance (HEXO, OGI, Canopy, etc) - Large build-up of inventory in the system (exploring the numbers) - 3 Core Problems: Retail, Marketing and Distribution Retail: Ontario is far lagging behind and needs 20x the retail stores - Why this problem might get solved and how long it will take - Why private owned retail is SO important Marketing: Why the strict rules are hurting the system - Why retail can help solve this problem Distribution: Government playing middle-man causing huge issues - This may change in Ontario but unlikely to in Quebec Picking Winners: What to look for in companies that can weather the storm Conclusion: How investors should act going forward knowing what is coming next
November 14, 2019
#18 - Why Florida is the BEST Cannabis Market (so far)
In this episode we explore Maneesh's thesis that Florida is the best cannabis market we've seen so far. Here's why: - The 3 levels of cannabis legality - which is the best for investors? - Why is every big company focusing on Florida? Profitability - Trulieve leads the industry in EBITDA margins and Earnings - What makes Florida such a profitable market? - Overview of Florida's rules and set-up - Vertical Integration: Forcing full Seed to Sale - Cultivation > Extraction > Processing > Distribution > Retail - Barriers to Entry - the impact of strict Vertical Integration - Why it is harder than people think to scale in Florida - Capturing high profit margins: what makes a business attractive - Transparency: OMMU data lets us see weekly sales - Rapid Growth: 170K to 300K patients in a single year - Doubling of product sold + flower introduced in 2019 - Full Rec: Legalize It Florida vs Regulate Florida - Will Michigan or Illinois surpass Florida in 2020?
November 12, 2019
How Drake & Doug Ford Might Save Canadian Cannabis - Market Update - Nov/8/2019
We're back! In this PACKED market update we cover: - Whatever happened to that vaping "crisis"? Some positive news for Canada for once! - Cannabis Council write an Open Letter to Doug Ford - Ford Government responds quickly - signalling very positive news for Ontario and Canada - The 3 changes the Ford government is promising and why it might save the cannabis market - BUT be careful...they still haven't specified any concrete timelines - Discussing the building of inventory in the system and the risk this poses; How does this get resolved? - The Drake / More Life Growth Deal - What this means and why Manish thinks it's so important (beyond his Drake man-crush) - LABS applies for NASDAQ listing - Trulieve raises $60M USD at good terms - Zenabis seeks to raise $20M CAD at brutal terms - Upcoming earnings: LABS, WEED, VFF, TRUL & GTI - When the earnings release what to look for
November 08, 2019
#17 - A Good Stock vs A Good Company
In this episode we deviate from our usual mantra of "buy companies not stocks" and talk about why it is important to be a good stock and what makes a good stock. How do companies capture investor attention and get love from the capital markets? We differentiate between being a fundamentally good long term investment and being a good stock that captures the attention of investors.
November 05, 2019
#16 - Intro to the Michigan Cannabis Market
This is an episode we recorded in the summer after visiting Detroit for a conference. We give an overview of the Michigan market and why we think it will be one investors should pay close attention to. - The revitalization of Detroit since 2008 - The 6 main types of licenses (similar to California's model): #1) Cultivation #2) Processing / Extraction / Manufacturing #3) Retail / Dispensary #4) Secure Transport (stand alone) #5) Lab Testing (stand alone) #6) Micro-Grow - How Michigan compares to Florida in terms of patient count - Why Michigan is actually a tourist destination - Why Michigan will be a smoother roll-out than Ontario - X-Factor: Michigan's Black Market - Future Predictions for the Michigan Market
November 01, 2019
#15 - Beyond Flower - Coolest New Cannabis 2.0 Products
This was a fun one! In this episode we talk about our favourite new products we've seen or tried. Most of these products are from California and give us a hint of what's to come in other markets. #1) HEXO CBD Peppermint Spray - https://ocs.ca/products/elixir-cbd-peppermint-oil-oral-spray-hexo (Canada only) #2) THC & CBD Infused Bath Bomb - https://myjane.com/ (California subscription service) #3) Atlas Edibles Raspberry Hibiscus Beverage Mix - http://atlasedibles.com/raspberry-hibiscus/ (California only) #4) CBD lined Eye Mask - https://myjane.com/ (California subscription service) #5) Dosist Vape Pen - https://dosist.com/ #6) Foria Sexual Wellness - https://foriapleasure.com/pages/home What's the coolest product you've seen or tired? Let us know - CINpodcast@gmail.com
October 30, 2019
#14 - Canada vs US Weed Market - Examining the Sales Data
In this episode we explore the July 2019 sales data for Canada and compare it to sales numbers for mature US markets - How Canada compares to Colorado, Washington and Oregon (mature markets) - How other emerging markets like California and Nevada compare - We breakdown how sales are doing and what future sales might look like - Lastly we derive future potential valuations from both conservative and aggressive projections - How do the current market valuations compare to future potential? - Where is there more opportunity for investors? Ultimate Resource for US Data: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/d2txuf/us_statebystate_cannabis_industry_data_sources/ **Footnote: The Canada data is based on July 2019 sales data
October 25, 2019
Valens Smashes Earnings and Origin House Worries - Market Update - Oct 20 2019
In This Market Update: - Valens Grow releases excellent earnings. What this means for the extraction sector - How does Valens compare to Medipharm Labs? - Auxly proposes an interesting solution to $100M of upcoming debt - How this will impact Aurora's upcoming $230M (March 2020) - Origin House - HSR Date passes with no announcement...what's going on? - Cannabis 2.0 officially kicks off with good marketing - Ontario looking at reforming it's distribution model - Nevada freezes all license transfers
October 21, 2019
#13 - NoMo Easy Money - Welcome to the Correction
In this episode we discuss the new reality of the Cannabis Market - corrected values and the end of easy money 1) The Correction -- How did we get here? - Natural transition from a hype-driven to a results-driven environment - Using real estate developments as an example (selling the sizzle vs the steak) - How the overall sales numbers are WAY off the projections ($4.6B vs $1B) 2) What is Easy Money? - Lack of due diligence; "sizzle" driven investing - Emotion driven investing style - Focus on upside instead of risk mitigation (Greed > Fear) 3) The Effects of Easy Money - Asset prices / Company Valuations start to rise rapidly - How this has happened in Real Estate since 2008 - Attracting shady players ("promotes") - Speculative behaviour of investors chasing comparable gains 4) What Next? What does this mean for investors? - Resetting values can be attractive for investors - "Cashed up" players can take advantage of this downturn through M&A - Investors need to pay closer attention to margins: gross and net - Cash and Cashflow are extremely important - Focus on companies who have a proven ability to execute and make money - How a failing company can create an investing opportunity in a winning company Bonus: Manish and Abi make a $3 Billion Dollar Bet for 2020
October 16, 2019
The Pain Continues - Market Update - Oct/12/2019
We are at a critical juncture in Cannabis: - There is a structural shift to evaluating companies on fundamentals and cash burn - Bad News: Medmen and Pharmacann cancel proposed merger - Who got a better deal? And Medmen's CFO getting fired - How this might impact Origin House / Cresco Labs - More Bad News: HEXO misses revenue and CFO gets fired (note the pattern) - HEXO drops hard in price - is it valued fairly? - Even More Bad News: Village Farms raises $25M at half the value from a few months ago - How we should have seen this coming - What this says about the market and about VFF (good and bad) - Good News! Mitch McConnell (senate leader) visits California and meets with Cannabis companies - This bodes well for the SAFE Banking Act vote (but still uncertain) - Good News: MediPharm Labs gets an increased bank facility at reasonable rates
October 12, 2019
#12 - Is Canada Losing Its Advantage in Cannabis?
In this episode we examine how the Canadian market has evolved over the past few years. We explore each part of the value chain - Cultivation, Brands, Processing and Retail and see if Canada is losing ground to other countries.
October 09, 2019
#11 - Raising Capital 101 - How Cannabis Companies Fund Growth
In this episode we go through the mechanics of how and why Weed Companies raise capital. This is especially important in today's environment when companies may be forced to suffer significant dilution if they can't raise on favourable terms. We use a theoretical company ABC ("Always Be Cultivating") and explore how they might approach investors at each stage of their business. See how a company progresses from Seed Funding to Series A to IPO/RTO and beyond. We discuss what investors should look for and what questions to ask.
October 04, 2019
Navigating Choppy Waters - Market Update - Oct/2/2019
In this Market Update we discuss how we are right in the middle of a perfect storm of negativity and uncertainty: - How we got here (CannTrust > Recession Fears > Canopy Earnings > Vapegate) - Why the Vape Issue is really a Black Market Problem - How Vaping should be solved and the unfortunate knee jerk reaction - Emergency Financing: Why Prices Dropped 20-30% in the last week - KushCo (KSHB) Raises $30M USD at a steep discount - Ianthus (IAN) Raises $20M USD from Gotham Green on a 13% convertible note - What happened to Harvest's (HARV) $225M USD Debt Financing? (Torian Capital deal explained) - Data: How much have Vape Sales declined? Less than you might think... - How much of this is priced in already? Is this Sentiment or True Risk? - Closing: What Stocks Manish Sold and Why - Selling: Medmen/CVSI/IAN/HARV/KHSB - Booking Tax Loss consideration ahead of others (risks and reward of this) - What to look for Going Forward (important of cash and cash flow)
October 02, 2019
SAFE vs VAPE (Good News vs Bad) - Market Update - Sept/25/2019
We are back with a PACKED Market Update: 1) Breaking down the HISTORIC passage of the SAFE Banking Act (by the House) - How it happened and Why it matters - The road ahead (goes through the Senate) - Benefits of the SAFE Banking Act - Why Traditional Bank Financing would be a huge positive for US Cannabis companies 2) Exploring the Vaping Health Epidemic (is it really an epidemic?) - 350 cases with 8 deaths so - How bad is this? How aware is the general public? - What's the cause? Vitamin E Acetate? The Black Market? - How much should investors care? Is this just a blip? - How simple and negative news can spread far and wide - Why Vaping is so important to Cannabis Companies - Massachusetts' 4 month ban on ALL vaping products (who's next?) 3) Pennsylvania and the Tri-State Area (NY/NJ/CT) Going Full Rec - 4 neighboring states all looking to go rec in short order - Why New York wants the other states to share the same rules - PA = 21M people; NY = 19.5M - All 4 States = 53M people (1.5x Canada!!) 4) CIBC says Canada Sales Estimates are WAY too High - $6.5B of 2020 Sales reduced to $2.2B (1/3rd of original) - $7.5B of 2021 Sales reduced to $3.3B (44% of original) - People online bashing CIBC over this. Are they right? - Are these numbers accurate? Let's compare to real numbers - What this means for the Canadian market - US sales vs Canadian sales Closing Thought: Long-term focus and being patient - This is a 3-5 year investment play! - Don't get caught focusing on the ups and downs
September 26, 2019
#10 - Distribution in The California Cannabis Market
In this episode Abi discusses his recent California trip and how complicated distribution in the Golden State is. We compare Canada to California and talk about the fragmentation of the market.
September 19, 2019
#9 - My Top Weed Stocks - My (mostly US) Cannabis Portfolio
NOTE / WARNING - THIS EPISODE IS VERY OUTDATED. Yes, even though it's not that old our views on this topic shift very quickly and there's some companies on here you should avoid There are several companies in this episode we no longer like including Harvest, Medmen, Ianthus and CV Sciences. We're keeping this episode up but want to give you fair warning to be careful on cannabis investing information as it constantly changes!
September 16, 2019
Medmen Clears HUGE DOJ Hurdle (Great News for US Weed Stocks) - Market Update - Sept/10/2019
The Medmen/Pharmacann acquisition passing DOJ regulatory hurdle is BIG news. Here's why: - What is the DOJ 2nd Request Process? - Why this is SO important to US Cannabis stocks? - Which MSOs will benefit from this announcement? - What this means going forward for US Weed Stocks? - Are investors fully appreciating how important this is? - How is the weed market performing since the August lows? - Which weed stocks will benefit from this? - Update on the Origin House trade
September 12, 2019
#8 - Cannabis Supply Chain 101
- Mapping out the supply chain from start to finish - How the supply chain varies in the US vs Canada - Why it's important for investors to understand the supply chain - Specialization vs Vertical Integration - LPs / Cultivators: Issues they will face going forward - Exraction / Processing: Why we are bullish for the future - Distribution: Canada vs US - Retail & Dispensaries: Vegas vs Toronto
September 09, 2019
#7 - Breaking Down Financial Jargon
In this episode we cover investing basics: - What is an index (eg. TSX, Dow Jones, S&P 500)? - ETF: Basket of stocks typically reflecting a particular sector - Be careful with ETFs and HMMJ - Hedge Funds vs Mutual Funds - Actively Managed vs Passively Managed Funds - Management Expense Ratio (MER) - Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio - Value vs Growth: Low P/E vs High P/E stocks - Picking a P/E multiplier - Why its so important - Trailing P/E vs Forward P/E - Defining EV and EBITDA - EV: Market Cap - Cash + Debt - EBITDA: Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortization - EV / EBITDA Ratio - what it is and why it's important - EV/EBITDA vs P/E Ratios - taking debt into consideration
September 05, 2019
#6 - A Good Product vs A Good Investment
In This Episode: - "Creating Value is not enough..." - Peter Thiel - 4 Reasons Why A Good Product may do poorly as an investment - 1) Being out of favour with the capital markets / institutional capital - 2) The company can be overvalued, even if the prodcut is good - 3) Company Profit and Share Price don't always move together - 4) A weak and expanding Cap Table can cause issues - Relating cannabis companies to your favourite restaurant
September 03, 2019
#5 - FOMO, Fear & Greed, and Making Good Investing Decisions
In this episode: - What is FOMO and why does it matter - How Manish got FOMO from the Raptors Championship - Is FOMO Unique to Millennials? - Fear vs Greed: Which is more powerful? - Equities vs Fixed Income - Shifting investor mindset to longterm value - What we could learn from Bitcoin - Why Cannabis is different than Bitcoin - What happens when markets are moving up & moving down - Creating Systems which allow you to make good investing decisions
August 29, 2019
Is It A Good Time to Buy Weed Stocks? - Market Update - Aug/23/2019
In this market update: - How's the Marijuana Stock Index doing? - Broad Strokes: What caused a heavy downturn - Starting with CannTrust non-compliance - US DOJ Anti-trust concerns delaying mergers - Fed rate cute; Broader market sell-off - Some good news from Medipharm, Cresco, Trulieve and general US progress - Are we heading into a recession? - How Canopy Growth headlines overshadowed everyone - Why Canopy didn't really lose $1.2B in one quarter - Why Manish is buying Village Farms (VFF) - How large Canadian LPs will compete globally - What companies to buy if we're heading into a recession - How would cannabis behave in a recession?
August 23, 2019
#4 - Debate: The Dispensary Experience (and why it matters)
In this episode we debate buying your weed from a dispensary: here to last or just a fad? - The argument for why consumers will buy weed online instead of in person - Why dispensaries are important in capturing consumers - How dispensaries act as a bridge between black market and mainstream - Do people enjoy the dispensary retail experience? Will they continue to visit once the initial fad fades? - How important is the budtender? - Will consumers trust the dispensary? Or will they rely on online and word of mouth - Lessons learned from Planet13's location in Vegas - How dispensaries will be invaluable to cannabis brands
August 19, 2019
#3 - Buy Weed Companies NOT Weed Stocks (Valuation Deepdive)
Deepdive on Valuations: - Valuation = Earnings x Earnings Multiplier (AKA PE) - Choosing an Earnings Multiplier - Thinking about Risk - Risk in real estate vs in stocks - Risk free rate - Interest Rates are like gravity in the investing world - Why Abi looks at the cap table/valuation first - Using comparables to judge relative valuation - Valuations of Canadian Companies vs US Companies
August 14, 2019
How Would a Recession Affect Weed Stocks? - Market Update - Aug/11/2019
In this Market Update: - Turmoil in the broader equity markets - US 10 year treasury hits 1.6% - why that matters - Flight to Safety (and out of Cannabis) - Are we heading into a recession? - Recessions vs Bear Markets - What does that mean for businesses and investors? - What does that mean for Cannabis Investing? - How Big Cannabis Players can dominate in a recession - Silver Lining: How Cannabis could outperform in a recession - Catch us at the Benzinga Conference in Detroit this week!
August 11, 2019
#2 - How to Invest in Weed Stocks 101
- The fundamentals of investing in Cannabis companies - Buying a company vs buying a stock - Evaluating a company's valuation; why Abi reads the Cap Table FIRST - Importance of patience and long term focus - Risks involved in venture investing - The art of a picking a winner Next episode: Buy companies not stocks
August 05, 2019
How Good Are Aphria's Numbers? & Other Market Making News - Market Update - Aug/1/2019
PACKED market update including: - Huge earnings from Aphria and why you should dig deeper into the revenue breakdown - Strategic investments from Couche-Tard & Imperial Brands (for Fire & Flower and Auxly) - Curaleaf's CVS deal gets pulled after FDA warning letter - Is Manish buying or selling Curaleaf? - More CannTrust drama - Beyond Meat raising $650M USD and why it matters - How Beyond Meat's business strategy relates to Cannabis Next episode: How to invest in weed stocks 101
August 02, 2019
Has the Market Bottomed? And the Origin House arbitrage - Market Update - July 20/2019
Has the market bottomed? After a few brutal weeks we examine values in the market: - What caused this recent drop in prices? - What's the difference between a blip and a correction? - How CannTrust caused the entire market to fall irrationally - What's next for CannTrust? - Are market values attractive at these numbers? - The strategy of buying companies around the problematic companies (like HomeTrust) - Managing cash for situations like these Market Update: - Curaleaf buys Grassroots for ~$875M USD deal - Neptune closes $41.5M USD raise - Flower withdraws a $125M offering (indicates investor hesitation) (this was later turned into a $43M bought deal) Activity: - What Manish has done during this downturn - The Origin House arbitrage opportunity
July 23, 2019
#1 - Is it Too Late to Invest in Weed Stocks?
The intro episode! Welcome to the Cannabis Investing Network, a podcast created For Investors By Investors. Our focus is squarely on the public and private cannabis markets. In this episode: - Manish's background in Commercial Real Estate - Abi's background in Fixed Income - How we both ended up investing in the Cannabis Space - Our first ever investments and what we learned - Is it too late to start investing in this space? Is all the easy money gone? - Where the market is and where is it heading - Canada vs US vs International focus - Cultivation vs Extraction vs Brands Next week's episode - Investing in Weed Companies 101
July 17, 2019
Ep #0 - Market Update - "Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful"; CannTrust Creates Buying Opportunities
This mini-episode covers the state of the market as we currently see it (July 2019). - CannTrust issues have pulled down the entire cannabis market - Take a deep breath and remember investing is for the long-term - Valuation = Earnings x Multiple; has other of these variables changed? - Should you be adjusting your investment strategy? - Why it is so important to research and understand the companies you buy into - Market pullbacks mean your favourite companies are on sale - Don't panic, act rationally and think long-term Our first official episode "How to Invest in Weed Companies 101" coming soon! - Manish & Abi Comments, feedback, suggestions - CINpodcast@gmail.com
July 16, 2019