#37: Discussions with Jeff Snider (Alhambra Investments) - Beyond the USD... Non-linear thinking about the next potential world Reserve Currency
Dr Dark After Dark • By Chris Dark • Oct 08, 2020
#2.4: Tim Boyd (Blueshirt Advisors, ex-Bridgewater) on macro, trading vs investing, volatility and much more
Tim Boyd (Blueshirt Advisors & Blueshirt Plus; ex-Bridgewater) joins me to discuss macro, trading vs investing, volatility, portfolio construction, the Fed, and much more! We focus quite a bit on advice for less experienced investors, however there should be some good information for those who are more experienced too As always, please send me any feedback whether good, bad or ugly, best to DM me on twitter; and if you have any requests for the show then suggestions are welcome!
January 11, 2022
#2.3: Carbon Credits - A New Asset Class, with Lawson Steele
Carbon Credits are a fascinating market & personal investment that I have talked about many times, in this podcast, and on twitter. I am therefore thrilled to have had on Lawson Steele, Head of Carbon & Utilities at Berenberg Bank to discuss the market in depth. Lawson is THE expert in this space, and we cover a myriad of dynamics from the obvious political ones, the less obvious political ones, thru to how CCs affect corporates, what happens in a potential future world with decentralised power gen & storage, Germany & Nuclear, and much more Ask yourself if you think they ARE indeed a new asset class once you have finished listening As always, please send me any feedback whether good, bad or ugly, best to DM me on twitter; and if you have any requests for the show then suggestions are welcome too
December 21, 2021
#2.2: Concentrate to Accumulate, Only When Convicted
I discuss my current framework for concentrated, high conviction, investing; and also the flip side, what learnings I have had when I don't have high conviction investments - as capital still needs to be put to work. In this episode, we cover current high conviction investments, potential next high conviction 'radar' investments, the psychology involved, learnings I have had over the years that have helped reduce stress (i.e. when to outsource, things to stop doing). As always, please let me know any feedback via DM on twitter (@Darky999), whether good, bad or ugly it's all welcome. If you have any requests for future episodes please also let me know.
December 15, 2021
#2.1: How to Break Bitcoin with Physics - A Thought Experiment
We are back, with Series 2, Episode 1...! This is meant to be a highly thought provoking Thought Experiment, it will trigger many people, but hopefully most people realise what it's getting at. The inspiration for the episode were people on twitter who think Bitcoin will be 'THE' thing for literally forever - i.e. infinite time. We dive into Relativity, Proof of Work (PoW), a crazy but scientifically sound way to break mining (which is likely impossible for probably 1,000s of years to come...), how we can control time, how this means we neatly circumvent some Energy requirements, and all with Physics that is generally considered to be correct, and proven beyond doubt (but note, Relativity is likely not the deepest theory, but it has been proven 1,000 different ways). If you are offended by it then I would suggest you reassess the point of the podcast, it's absolutely not having a go at Bitcoin, it should be a light hearted take on an interesting Thought Experiment. Link to prior episode with Jeff Snider about Next Generation Reserve Currencies https://anchor.fm/chris-dark/episodes/37-Discussions-with-Jeff-Snider-Alhambra-Investments---Beyond-the-USD----Non-linear-thinking-about-the-next-potential-world-Reserve-Currency-eknmfg Link to prior episode and PRIMER on Relativity: https://anchor.fm/chris-dark/episodes/8-Relativity-and-Big-Stuff-eed4eh Please share if you think this was fun, happy to do more if there is demand...
December 05, 2021
#48: Response to MacroVoices #255 Episode on Bitcoin
Recently one of my favourite podcasts, MacroVoices, had a discussion between the host Erik Townsend and Mike Green about Bitcoin's role in the Future of Digital Currency. I have huge respect for both Erik and Mike, and so I immediately listened! If you have not listened to it then I really recommend that you do, BEFORE listening to my reaction to it. Unfortunately, I found the episode to be biased, misleading, and 5 years out of date. I woke up the next morning and had about 100 people asking me to do a reaction pod to it. So here is that reaction pod. It's a monologue, it's totally different to normal, and people may love or hate it (as always please send any feedback to me @Darky999) I am candid, civil, and I think it's abundantly clear that this reaction is not in any way a personal attack on either Erik or Mike, quite the opposite, this is to add to the discussion about the financial system of the world, and how we can hopefully build a brighter future based on new technologies.
January 23, 2021
#47: Greg Crennan: Bitcoin Bull vs Bear Debate
Greg Crennan (@GregCrennan), the CEO of Golden Coast Consultants, joins me to debate Bitcoin - bull vs bear. Greg is quizzing me in this episode, however also debating with me, and we dive into many of the often asked questions & pushbacks about Bitcoin Greg and I fully agree about the long term bearish prospects of fiat money vs hard assets, and we both own gold & silver. So we should agree on Bitcoin right? Well we don't, so hence this debate! This episode is not meant to change a mega-bear's mind about Bitcoin, instead it's aimed to hopefully educate those who haven't had the time (or inclination) to dive deeper, as there are many narratives that I don't think are relevant anymore, yet they stick around for years as many people's minds As always, if you have any feedback whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me @Darky999 on Twitter
November 24, 2020
#46: Marty Bent on Bitcoin and its non-obvious ramifications (why might the Oil & Gas industry become dependent on it?)
Marty Bent (@martybent) joins me to dive deep into the non-obvious ramifications of Bitcoin, its technology and its network. With a deep dive into how the Oil & Gas industry could become dependent on Bitcoin over the next decade Marty is a well known proponent of Bitcoin and both an original thinker but also a healthy sceptic that is realistic about current limitations of Blockchain technology. He is the host of the popular Bitcoin podcast Tales From The Crypt, and also has written his blog, Marty's Bent, daily since 2017. In addition, he is the Director of Business Development at Great American Mining , and for gold bug listeners, this is not about precious metal mining (but this does come up!) We also discuss how Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) fit, or don't fit, into a world where Bitcoin, and Energy, underpin the financial system. This will sound far fetched to many, however please keep an open mind, one thing is for certain, the USD won't be the Reserve FX of the world for ever more... Dr Dark After Dark #37 is a good primer on potential Next Generation Reserve Currencies with Jeff Snider (of Alhambra Investments) As always if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me on Twitter @Darky999
November 17, 2020
#45: Santiago Velez on Blockchains (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Enterprise, CBDCs...)
Santiago Velez (@Santiag78758327) joins me to discuss Blockchains, the different types, their interoperability, and what the key features are that give advantages over legacy technology This podcast is NOT about the price of Bitcoin, it's the first in a mini-series I am doing on Bitcoin & Blockchain, as many listeners have asked me to dive into the parts that are not covered as much as they should be We cover blockchain basics, different types (especially enterprise vs permissionless), JPMorgan coin, XRP & Swift, and on to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and then how all the above needs to interoperate, in order for the 'SMTP for money' (alluding to SMTP = the protocol that enabled email to interoperate) to revolutionise money, and the concept of value And yes, we touch on the US Election, but from a perspective of how Blockchains can help Elections, not just in the US, but everywhere... As always, please DM me on Twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly
November 10, 2020
#44: @FedupBizOwner on the US Election (recorded 8pm EST Sunday 1 Nov)
FedUpBizOwner (@HRGPFOREVER) joins me to discuss the US Election... We can all probably agree that we want to move on with life, and that having a peaceful transfer (Biden win), or no transfer (Trump win), of power is preferable for America and democracy. But is this realistic? Is the US heading for chaos for days, weeks, months (longer?!) Why is Trump going to be in the White House on election night (and not in a hotel as is tradition)? Why has he asked N.C. voters to 'try and vote twice'? Why is 10:30pm EST such an important time on Tuesday 3rd? What scenarios are there for a peaceful and decisive election night? FedUp is candid, he is traditionally a GOP voter, however he also hates Trump. So this he is very much not a far-left liberal (some people get this very wrong on twitter...!). You may agree or disagree with his views, however he is laying out what could happen in the next 48 hours, and it's better to be prepared for chaos (and it might not happen, if so that is good!), rather than to just be unprepared... We also quickly cover right at the beginning the latest on the lending markets (FedUp's job is in Franchise Financing) As always if you have any feedback whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me on Twitter (@Darky999), several episodes have come from listener ideas
November 02, 2020
#43: Callum Thomas on Entrepreneurship & Macro (Founder of TopDownCharts)
Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) joins me for a journey through his entrepreneurial experience; having founded TopDownCharts in 2016, and building it into a well known independent research firm, with clients across the world; doing this from New Zealand, and from the very southern tip of New Zealand too! This episode is full of great tips 'n' tricks for anyone considering starting their own business, this was Callum's third attempt, and as it the norm, that made him stronger and more determined than ever to succeed. How did he find his Product/Market fit? How did he get his initial sales? How has COVID enabled him to scale in ways that were previously not possible? We then move on to his macro process/framework, and his current views on all the major asset classes, we do talk about the US Election (it's hard not to right now!) and much more Please DM me on twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly; many ideas for episodes have come from listeners
October 29, 2020
#42: Teddy Vallee (Founder & CIO of Pervalle Global Macro Hedgefund)
Teddy is one of the new generation of Hedge Fund managers, having setup Pervalle Global in 2018. Pervalle is very much a macro fund ("macro is back, baby!"), investing across all asset classes, and it brings together a unique set of leading indicators into their investment process As we all know, 2020 has been an 'interesting' year so far, certainly not one to be ever forgotten! We dive into the the latest key dynamics across macro, ranging from US Election, COVID, inflation vs deflation, 2 y-axis charts (!), and much more If you have any feedback please do DM me on Twitter (@Darky999) whether good/bad/ugly; several episodes have come from listener ideas & recommendations of guests
October 27, 2020
#41: Paul Hodges on Macro, Chemicals, and Innovation
Super excited to have one of my most favourite macro analysts on the pod. Paul Hodges is a world-renowned expert on the Chemicals industry and Macro in general, and also the author of the pH Report. The Chemicals industry is the 3rd largest in the global economy and is interconnected with almost all physical products; the trends within it are one of the best leading macro indicators We dive into the ticking demographic time bomb facing the world, and its many ramifications for people, business and governments. How COVID has changed most industries and now presents great opportunities for step changes in technology, and decentralisation - especially for budding entrepreneurs The next 20 years will see far more new technology than the last 20 years as technology builds upon previous advances in an exponential manner, so it's healthy to not listen too much to people that say your latest 'crazy idea' is impossible! As always, if you have any feedback good/bad/ugly please DM me on Twitter @Darky999
October 22, 2020
#40: Volatility Deep Dive with Jason Buck (Co-Founder & CIO Mutiny Fund)
Jason Buck (@JasonMutiny) joins me for a wide-ranging discussions about the real 'vol' - volatility. Jason is one of the pre-eminent vol experts and has a great overview of the various strategies that can be deployed - as Mutiny is a fund-of-vol-funds Going 'long vol' is talked about quite a lot, but there has been less focus on what a Retail Investor can practically do, so we talk about various specific long vol trades to give a flavour of what is possible; including a quick masterclass on 'The Greeks' We also cover the VIX ETPs (VXX, VIXY) - how they can be used, and how people need to be very careful with them too, as well as Left tail vs Right positioning, some guidelines for assessing how to think about position sizing (spoiler: there is no silver bullet here!), and a new analogy on Coffee and Options :) As always, please DM me on Twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly
October 20, 2020
#39: Discussions with @TESLAcharts (on Nikola Motor & a deep dive into SPACs)
Well-known Tesla bear, TESLAcharts (or TC), joins me to discuss his interview/podcast with the Founder & ex-Exec Chairman of Nikola Motor, Trevor Milton, and also a deep dive into SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) TC's podcast with Trevor Milton was a rare glimpse into the mind of the leader of a large public company - people like Trevor rarely go on the record in such detail. It received a lot of positive reviews, however also some criticism. No one could have know what would follow, with Trevor's resignation from Nikola soon after a damming report published by Hindenburg Research We discuss the reasons for TC doing the interview, how he thinks it went, and address the criticisms he received too Then we have a deep dive into SPACs, the incentives behind them, their pros & cons, and draw some analogies with Venture Capital and Private Equity As always if you have any feedback whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me on Twitter @Darky999
October 16, 2020
#38: Discussions with Jeff Booth (@JeffBooth), serial entrepreneur, investor, and author
This was a very different, and incredibly enjoyable conversation that really digs into what it takes to be an entrepreneur, emotions, how to hire, how to fail, how to understand that the journey is the destination, and ultimately why most people underestimate the impact of technology (very important for understanding the macro of tomorrow) Jeff is a serial entrepreneur, a highly accomplished investor in tech startups (across many different industries), and he is the author of "The Price of Tomorrow - Why Deflation is Key to an Abundant Future" The inflation vs deflation debate is highly topical, we discuss the incredibly strong forces that push towards deflation, most notable technology advancement, network effects and the ability to manipulate and learn from data (e.g. AI) As always, please DM me on twitter (@darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly it's all welcome!
October 14, 2020
#37: Discussions with Jeff Snider (Alhambra Investments) - Beyond the USD... Non-linear thinking about the next potential world Reserve Currency
Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP) joins me for a very different type of episode! Beyond the USD... What could a future world Reserve Currency look like? We don't hang around too long on fiat currencies, quickly moving to potential currencies like Energy which would be a natural candidate for civilisations that are a bit more advanced (say 50-100 years ahead) than humans are now Why is this important? How can we practically move away from the current USD system to a better paradigm? What would decentralisation of currency creation AND storage mean for the banking sector? How do the CBDCs come into the picture? A very varied discussion that is not what you normally hear! Ultimately, why we should be optimistic about the world (especially in the 2030s onwards), and how there are now incredible opportunities for those intrepid entrepreneurs who dare to both dream of a better world, and have the ability to also build one
October 08, 2020
#36: 'Beyond the Milkshake' with Brent Johnson (Founder Santiago Capital) - how to construct a portfolio based upon a thesis
Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund) joins me to go 'Beyond the Milkshake' - and gives a masterclass in portfolio construction Brent is well known for his Dollar Milkshake thesis that the USD will spike due to huge USD denominated debts across the world leading to a wave of defaults, and huge USD demand, but how can we go from a thesis to an actual portfolio? Also, is it possible to allocate in a manner that means if your thesis is ultimately wrong, you can still make money? We dive into the nuances of portfolio construction, including timeframes, asset allocations, how to enter positions, profit taking strategies and much more
October 07, 2020
#35: Discussion with Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI (CEO & Co-Founder Real Vision; Founder GMI)
What does it take to realise a life-changing investment, i.e. 100x returns? How can we be ready for the mental challenges, the ridicule from friends & family for being 'crazy' and 'nuts', and the emotional ups and downs? Is the mindset required similar to being an entrepreneur? Raoul Pal, CEO & Co-Founder Real Vision; Founder Global Macro Investor, is no stranger to this, as a serial entrepreneur and long time successful macro investor. We do a deep dive into the mental strength required to find, make, and ultimately realise life-changing returns. It's easy to say 'concentrate to accumulate, diversity to protect' however when should we concentrate a bet? What process should we follow to find it? How can we sleep at night (spoiler, have safety nets!) with so much on the line? Whether an investment, or as an entrepreneur, you have to take risks in order to make life-changing returns, and whilst many podcasts and videos cover ideas for the next big thing, there has been less coverage of all the other aspects that need to be nailed in order to stay sane, actually realise the returns, and to not get wiped out if wrong (there is of course no guarantee you will be right). As always, please DM me on twitter (@Darky999) with feedback whether good/bad/ugly, and for ideas for future episodes.
October 01, 2020
#34: @FedUpBizOwner on Supreme Court & Election Politics
FedUpBizOwner (@HRGPFOREVER) returns for an episode dedicated to the Supreme Court & Election Politics. FedUp needs no introduction, his first episode on Mail In voting and Franchise Financing remains the most popular podcast in this series. Today's episode has been eagerly anticipated so I hope it lives up to expectations! It was recorded at 8pm EST on Sunday 20th September It's a doozie :)
September 21, 2020
#33: Discussions with Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch)
Eric Basmajian, a Jedi Master of data, insights, and incredibly clear and well thought out logic joins me to discuss Inflation vs Deflation (deep dive here), how to think about constructing a portfolio (including ways of hedging), and how the upcoming US Election could affect markets, based upon various combinations of who controls what (POTUS, House, Senate). Eric also gives his top tips for what non-obvious data to track (do you track Copper SCRAP prices, what about Plywood instead of Lumber?) in order to try to get a bit of a heads up for when the current reflationary impulse may turn back to the previous deflationary trend - whilst it's possible it doesn't, he leans towards a deflationary future in the medium term, especially in a US with no further stimulus (as politicians argue/procrastinate). As always, please DM me on Twitter (@darky999) with any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly, and if you have ideas for future guests please also let me know.
September 15, 2020
#32: What is Going on?
Volatility is back! Nothing too crazy yet, but when stocks are up, AND volatility is up, one has to take note and be more cautious - this was a couple of weeks ago, and we did see a correction in stocks, especially some of the mega cap tech stocks In this episode we discuss the current market (as of Friday 11th Sept), volatility and ways to not trade it, as well as ways to trade it; and we dive into the latest insights from my quest to understand Reserves and hopefully answer the Inflation vs Deflation question (spoiler: it's not black and white...)
September 11, 2020
#31: Discussions with Emil Kalinowski (@emilkalinowski)
Emil is one of the most articulate free-thinkers in the macro/economics space. This conversation was a real treat for me. I never thought it would end up going 500+ years into the future when talking about potential reserve currencies - and it wasn't science fiction (maybe it becomes science fact!) So not surprisingly this was a very wide ranging discussion, spanning the 'Silent Depression' we have had since 2008, politics and what size of shock is required for real change to occur, thru to next generation currencies, the effects of de-globalisation, and portfolio construction (for the 2020s) Emil hosts the Making Sense, Eurodollar University series with Jeff Snider, so please do check out their YouTube / Podcasts, they make frequent and extremely high quality content, generally around the monetary system, and how it really works
September 02, 2020
#30: Discussions with Zach Abraham (Principal & CIO of Bulwark Capital Management, host of Know Your Risk Radio)
We welcome Zach Abraham for a wide-ranging conversation about the economy, markets, and politics. We also talk about investing psychology, mistakes, how hard it is, but also when to double down and really put the pedal to the metal Zach is the Principal and CIO of Bulwark Capital Management, a US-based money manager, mainly focused on Retail clients, with $130m AuM. He weathered the 2007/08 GFC well, and has built the company to be disciplined, yet agile To listen to Zach every week, subscribe to the Know Your Risk Radio Podcast - this is how I discovered Zach about a year ago If you have any feedback, please DM me on Twitter, whether good/bad/ugly it's much appreciated!
August 26, 2020
#29: Discussions with Professor Danny Blanchflower (Dartmouth College, MPC member of Bank of England 2006-09)
Professor Danny Blanchflower (@D_Blanchflower) joins me to discuss the state of the global economy; we touch on many areas including how Central Banks are seemingly incapable of forecasting recessions, and how 'group think' within Economists (and Academics in general) has become so persuasive, that dissenting voices are not wanted... Danny dissented on 18 of the 36 Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes he was involved in from 2006-09, and 13 of these 18 he was the sole dissenter. Phone calls from the Prime Minister of the UK followed, where the PM backed Danny up and told him he was right, and how can they get the rest of the MPC understand this? We also look to the future - what can be done by Politicians and Central Bankers to lay the foundations for future growth, with ideas including large investments in education & infrastructure - after all, if the US Treasury can borrow in-effect near unlimited money, then why is it not investing in the future? This was a really fun conversation and at times it gets more technical (google 'NAIRU' if you are unsure what it is!), as always, please DM me on twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly, and also if you have ideas for future episodes
August 18, 2020
#28: Its Really Hard!
This market is not just hard, it's really hard. Everyone is making mistakes, anyone that says they are not are either lying or deluded. No one can trade this type of market perfectly. Having said this, it's a great market for macro, and with appropriate risk management it's a market that can be lucrative, with relatively low volatility This is a follow up to '#14 It's Hard!' episode, and covers all the major tradable asset classes (Equities, Bonds, Precious Metals, Bitcoin, Commodities) Recorded on Friday 14 August, as always, please DM @darky999 on Twitter if you have any feedback (good, bad or ugly!), or ideas for future episodes
August 14, 2020
#27: Discussions with Stirling Cox (@stirlingcox)
In the third episode of the 'At the Coal Face' series, Stirling Cox joins me to discuss how COVID has impacted SMBs in the US. Stirling is the owner of a Call Center in Atlanta, and was previously the President of AlphaSights US. We discuss how the various Government programs have affected his business, and the ramifications for the US economy. We also touch on topics like UBI, and entrepreneurship. Stirling is a fantastic business operator, and a gentleman - I have known him for over 15 years since we worked together at Bain & Co in London.
August 11, 2020
#26: Discussions with Anth Georgiades (Founder/CEO of Zumper)
Anth (@anthemos) is a long-time friend, and great entrepreneur, he is the Founder/CEO of Zumper and has grown it over the last 8 years into the largest private rental marketplace in the US & Canada with 80m+ users, with $150m of Venture funding raised too We discuss real estate and the impact of COVID (with lots of interesting data), politics & stimulus, entrepreneurship (especially learnings/mistakes), and future impacts of COVID to the global economy as a whole (who are the winners and losers) This is the second episode of the 'At the Coal Face' series where I talk with leaders who are at the frontlines of the real economy
August 07, 2020
#25: Discussions with @FedUpBizOwner (Part 1 of 'At the Coal Face')
Franchises contribute about $1 Trillion to the US economy each year, we dive into the state of the Franchise Financing industry with @FedUpBizOwner, an anonymous twitter account who has 15+ years experience dealing with the credit side of franchises We cover an overview of the industry, the various ways different sized franchisees get credit in a pre-COVID world, and then what is happening right now, with real life 'coal face' anecdotes from just yesterday We also initially touch on the upcoming US Election, and the current Stimulus impasse, something @FedUpBizOwner was predicting would happen over 2 months ago This is Part 1 of a mini-series called 'At the Coal Face', with CEOs/Founders, who will give their unique and interesting insights into what they are seeing on the frontlines of their business
August 04, 2020
#24: Discussions with Andreas Steno Larsen (Nordea Global Chief FX & Rates Strategist, @AndreasSteno)
Andreas is the Global Chief FX & Rates Strategist at Nordea, he joins me this week for a wide ranging discussion covering GDP data (in real time!), 'V-shape' or not, and a whistle stop tour around all the major asset classes We cover everything from the all important USD, the recent major moves in gold & silver, agricultural commodities, equities globally, US duration bonds, and bitcoin Andreas is extremely active on twitter, and is well worth a follow @AndreasSteno; as always if you have feedback about this episode please DM me on twitter
July 30, 2020
#23: Discussions with Dr Barton Wang (@Barton_options)
Dr Barton Wang is an academic, a trader, and a polymath. We cover his approach to trading options, the Treasury General Account (TGA), Central Banks & Blockchain, progress with COVID19 vaccines, and lastly AI, Big Data and Quantum Computing I learned a lot during this episode, especially about the nuances to the TGA mechanics, and also what I thought were sound reasons to believe a Vaccine may come sooner than many think (it just won't be available to everyone at first) To follow Barton's latest thoughts, just go to @Barton_options on Twitter
July 23, 2020
#22: Discussions with Tim (Boyd @ApolloTradingSD)
Today we welcome Tim Boyd, ex-Bridgewater analyst, and Founder of Apollo Trading Club; a 20 year veteran of macro investing, and must-follow voice on twitter. The conversation is very varied and unscripted, initially covering the market moving / political events of today (Tuesday 21st July) in detail Other topics include, why is the S&P a matter of National Security? Are there any limits to the Fed? Inflation vs deflation. Is Uranium a sleeper? Which assets are poised to benefit most from the crazy world we now live in, where money is in-effect free? It's a long episode, as always, please let me know any feedback, best method is to DM me on twitter
July 22, 2020
#21: More Discussions with Steve (Van Metre)
We welcome back Steve Van Metre to discuss the latest economic trends, especially inflation vs deflation, the 'fish hook' recovery, stocks vs bonds, and how to think about hedging in a portfolio As always, this is unscripted and a free flowing conversation, when we disagree we want to dive into why, and not brush it under the carpet Steve is well known for his almost daily YouTube videos focusing on the macro economics and the monetary system, which are data rich and really dive into detail; if you are not already a viewer, I really do recommend his channel (Steve Van Metre)
July 17, 2020
#20: Discussions with Ryan (Paisey @PriapusIQ)
Ryan Paisey (@PriapusIQ) joins me to discuss many aspects of trading including a tour of all the major asset classes (mentioning several potential long/short ideas), his tips for newer traders, and his new service The Morning Ramble (including his Model Portfolio) We cover bonds, equities, precious metals, commodities, bitcoin and volatility, and not just the US; insights about Europe and China too Ryan has traded for 20 years, has a lot of practical experience, and is very much NOT a 'FinTwat'!
July 14, 2020
#19: Roadmap for the 2020s
The 2020s have got off to an explosive / crazy / insane start. Will hard assets be the asset class of the 2020s? We dive into a framework for hard assets & liquidity, and go through the potential dynamics of all the major asset classes over the next 10 years Surprisingly, by 2030 we get to what could be a new beginning, an exciting, super innovative world, based upon an entirely new system. Humans are resourceful and smart, the human race will eventually get out of the mess it's in with out of control Central Banks, and Governments spending well beyond their means. The key question is therefore, how to survive the 2020s, and be 'in the game' for the subsequent decades
July 09, 2020
#18: Discussions with Remi Tetot (Real Vision co-founder)
Remi Tetot, co-founder of Real Vision, and data guru at Global Macro Investor (GMI) for the last 8 years, joins me for a wide ranging discussion about data, analysis, insights, and how to take these to higher probability trades. Remi does not give many interviews, so this is a rare opportunity to hear about his thoughts in much more detail than 280 characters We discuss how Remi tracks 2000 charts, how he managed to get on top of the rapidly changing COVID data back in February, and what other risks could flare up at any moment. The second half focuses on investing/trading, learning from mistakes, and how to keeps one's emotions in check To follow Remi's latest thoughts, please follow @TetotRemi on twitter
July 06, 2020
#17: Discussions with Tracy (Shuchart @chigrl)
Tracy Shuchart (@chigrl) joins me for a candid discussion with no agenda; the conversation meanders between politics, financial markets, investing style, cooking, twitter, and macro You may or may not agree with the various aspects of the discussion, one thing we both passionately believe in is that by having frank discussions (and disagreeing sometimes too) in a longer form format, it's possible to get more into the nuances than with 280 characters! Tracy is a well known Energy Analyst/Market Commentator, especially with the Oil market. We only touch on Energy briefly in this episode as we both wanted to focus on the other crazy things happening in the world right now - and the Energy markets are relatively tame right now
July 03, 2020
#16: Discussions with Steve (Van Metre)
Steve Van Metre joins me for a freeform discussion with no agenda; we cover a variety of subjects ranging from GDP trends, stimulus & politics, the Fed & the Federal Reserve Act, Digital 'fiat' Currencies and much more We are deliberately candid in this episode, you may agree or disagree with the points we make (and we sometimes disagree with each other too), however we both believe that having debate, and frank discussion, is important to further one's knowledge Steve is well known for his almost daily YouTube videos focusing on the macro economics and the monetary system, which are data rich and really dive into detail; if you are not already a viewer, I really do recommend his channel (Steve Van Metre)
July 01, 2020
#15: Millennial xxxx Boomer
Fill in the 'xxxx'... Millennials are already Prime Ministers and in Cabinets across the world (especially Europe), and Millennials have 10x less wealth than Boomers had at the equivalent age (c. 30) - this is a major problem, there will be ramifications... This episode discusses some frameworks & ideas for thinking about ensuring we have a concept of time in our investment process, as if you don't have a process you are likely going to struggle in the long run Note: When saying George Floyd's name, I managed to inadvertently say 'Floyd George' by mistake , apologies, was a genuine mistake on my part
June 23, 2020
#14: It's hard!
This market is hard, actually it's really really hard. Anyone who says otherwise is either deluded or lying. But it is what it is, and we all have to try to navigate it. We dive into psychology, talk about the 'silent majority' on social media (with fresh data!), and a few different theses on some core asset classes The podcast is starting to take off, with a few hundred listens to recent episodes, whilst this is still tiny, it does give me motivation that listeners are getting some value from it. Please message me with improvements and ideas for content, and if you want to just chat about your positioning, or some thesis you have, or anything to do with macro then do DM me, i'm happy to chat
June 16, 2020
#13: And the Fed goes BRRRRRRRRRRRR...
So it's easy right? The Fed goes BRRRRRRRRRR and stocks go up? Not so fast curious macro investor! Lets dive into what really happens, whilst there is an indirect link between the Fed and stocks going up, the real primary driver is the Treasury and it's spending/stimulus as this is what pushes up deposits, driving money supply up We dive into data on FRED to illustrate this (anyone can access this data), and outside the process from the Treasury auctions, to Robinhoodies buying $HTZ
June 13, 2020
#12: Post-Fed flash update
Shorter episode today, reactions from the Fed Presser, some thoughts on Corona, and a quick dive into the volatility regimes of markets
June 11, 2020
#11: Just Fade It (but hedge!)
Did the NFP number wind you up? It shouldn't have, take a step back and think of the big picture. The #1 question I get asked is what does a potential portfolio look like in these times of uncertainty (volatility) and doubt. So I take this head on in this episode. Everyone has a different situation, so this is just a framework, but I do go into what allocations could be in actual numbers, and what potential returns could be in different inflation/deflation situations. Always DYOR, and tailor anything you hear from others to your own personal circumstances, everyone is different, there is no one size fits all.
June 06, 2020
#10: Inflation? An encounter with a legend
Inflation or deflation? It's the defining question in macro right now. If you can get this right, your core portfolio will do well. In the medium-long term there are lots of differing views (super short term = deflationary / deflation), i.e. what will happen in 2021/22 and beyond. This is what matters for bonds, commodities, gold, equities - everything will be affected. In this episode we dive into the core equations of monetary policy; velocity of money, money multiplier etc - and talk about where to find the data so you can track the data yourself. We do talk about equations - but they are simple, and you can understand them if you put some time into it. And we talk about why QE does not cause inflation (other factors do). Massive thanks to Dr Lacy Hunt who answered many questions I had after I had watched his various recent interviews (he is the legend in the title!), and also thanks to Steve Van Metre who regularly puts up with my theories and thoughts!
May 28, 2020
#9: The D’s
Debt, deflation, defaults, demographics, disruption, dollar, democracy, depression, decoupling, deleveraging, dissolution etc... Lots of D words Discussed by Dr D. What does it all mean?
May 23, 2020
#8: Relativity and Big Stuff
What is Relativity? Why is it important? Can it be used in conjunction with quantum mechanics?
May 22, 2020
#7: Quantum Mechanics and Small Stuff
What is Quantum Mechanics? How was it discovered, who was involved, what experiments were involved? How can we talk about QM in non-math(s) speak? Can we unify the four fundamental forces of the universe? Are waves or particles more important (spoiler: waves...) - quick intro to Quantum Field Theory (QFT)
May 08, 2020
#6: Investing Mistakes
We all make mistakes, how do we learn from them, pattern recognise and become sharper
May 05, 2020
#5: Gold - hot or not?
Discussion about the current gold market dynamics, bull and bear case, free thoughts when hiking in the hills!
April 23, 2020
#4: Pro Gamers vs Pro Investors
I received some feedback to try an 'off the cuff' episode about something totally new and unique, so I did this whilst hiking as an idea came into my head about how 'Pro' Civilization gamers share a lot of traits with Professional Investors. This may sound crazy, however the parallels are striking!
April 16, 2020
#3: We did see it coming, we needed a pin
How did many (some silent, some vocal) people see the current economic crisis coming, and prepare accordingly?
April 09, 2020
#2: Gold vs Bitcoin
An hour of comparing two hard assets that have a lot in common, as well as a lot of differences!
April 06, 2020
#1: Bull vs Bear
What are the bull and bear arguments for the current macro environment?
April 02, 2020