Skip to main content
On Point

On Point

By Craigs Investment Partners

Stay on point with Craigs. Keep up to date with the latest developments in financial markets and the economy.

Investing involves risks. You aren’t guaranteed to make money and you might lose the money you started with. Any information provided is general, current at the time and not financial advice. It doesn’t take into account your particular financial situation. We don't accept liability for results of actions taken or not taken based on information provided. Before making any investment decision we recommend you seek professional assistance from an investment adviser. Visit craigsip.com.
Available on
Google Podcasts Logo
Spotify Logo
Currently playing episode

2 May 2022

On PointMay 01, 2022

00:00
14:16
Trusts, tax rates and PIEs

Trusts, tax rates and PIEs

If you hold some of your investments in a trust, your tax rate is going up next week. You might need to rethink the types of assets you own and the investment vehicles you choose, to ensure you’re not paying more tax than you need to. But beware, the impost might not be the showstopper some are suggesting it will be, and it doesn’t always make sense to build an investment strategy around tax minimisation. Fine-tuning could be the order of the day, rather than a dramatic recalibration of your approach. Whether you’ve got a trust or not, it’s an opportune time take a closer look at how your affairs are structured, just don’t let tax considerations alone drive your investment decisions.


Mar 26, 202413:06
The week ahead - what does the recession mean for interest rates?

The week ahead - what does the recession mean for interest rates?

It was a very strong week for sharemarkets in most regions, with confidence interest rate cuts are just around the corner growing and financial markets responding positively. The Swiss National Bank cut its policy interest rate on Thursday, becoming the first central bank with a G10 currency to do so. This followed the Federal Reserve's unchanged guidance for three rate cuts in 2024 (despite some stronger inflation figures of late), and the first Bank of England decision since 2021 where no members voted for a hike. Financial markets now expect the easing cycle to start in the US, UK and Europe in June, and for Australia and New Zealand to both follow in August. The final week of the March quarter will be a holiday-shortened one, with many of the major markets closed for Good Friday. US inflation will be in focus again, with the February PCE index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) due on Friday. In New Zealand, the latest ANZ Business Outlook is due, while we'll also get the Budget Policy Statement, ahead of the May Budget.
Mar 23, 202419:40
Is it time to ditch the deposits?

Is it time to ditch the deposits?

Short-term deposits are offering great value to investors right now, but don’t get content. Within the next six months interest rates could start falling, and after the first cut they’re likely to keep going lower. If that happens, investors will be facing much less attractive reinvestment rates and a declining income stream. Rather than waiting for the herd to catch on, savvy investors should take advantage of this opportunity and make hay while the sun is still shining.
Mar 19, 202405:58
The week ahead - is the Bank of Japan set to upstage the Fed?

The week ahead - is the Bank of Japan set to upstage the Fed?

Central banks will be in the spotlight this week, with monetary policy decisions due in Japan and Australia on Tuesday, then in the US and UK on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. All eyes will be on the Fed following last week's hotter than expected inflation figures, with investors likely to focus on the latest projections and the dot plot, which will show where Fed officials see interest rates going over the coming years. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision on Tuesday will also be eagerly anticipated, especially after Japan's biggest union reported much stronger wage negotiations on Friday. Here in New Zealand, we'll get the gross domestic product (GDP) report for the December 2023 quarter, which could have an impact on where the Official Cash Rate is headed and when. Buckle up!
Mar 16, 202416:48
What might interest deductibility changes mean for the property market?

What might interest deductibility changes mean for the property market?

Property investors are set to benefit from changes to interest deductibility rules, which will kick in at the end of this month. The Government is reversing changes that were implemented under the previous regime, which meant interest costs could no longer be considered an expense come tax return time. What might that mean for prospective investors, and with less headwinds will the housing market take off again?
Mar 12, 202421:45
The week ahead - will the US inflation report spoil the party?

The week ahead - will the US inflation report spoil the party?

The highlight of the coming week will be the US consumer price index on Tuesday. After a hotter than expected release in January, markets will be watching for any further upside surprises or signs price pressures are more persistent than hoped. This will be the last major release ahead of next week's Fed meeting, as markets get increasingly confident the first rate cut of this cycle will come within the next three months. Locally, we'll be watching the ANZ truckometer and electronic card transactions on Tuesday, as well as the latest migration figures and the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) housing market report for February.
Mar 10, 202417:45
Will lacklustre results make way for optimism?

Will lacklustre results make way for optimism?

The local reporting season wrapped up last week and while it wasn’t terrible, we saw a lacklustre set of releases and company updates. Many of our listed companies are still doing it tough against the backdrop of a sluggish economy, high interest rates and waning consumer demand. Which companies fared worst and why, were there any brights spot, and what does this tell about the economy and the investment outlook?

Mar 05, 202415:56
The week ahead - Jerome Powell, the jobs report and 'Super Tuesday'

The week ahead - Jerome Powell, the jobs report and 'Super Tuesday'

Last week was another good one for global sharemarkets, with further highs for indices in the US and Japan, and solid performances elsewhere too. The key event was the Reserve Bank decision here in New Zealand, where the Official Cash Rate was left unchanged and forecasts suggested the next move will be down. Looking ahead, the key economic release will be the US monthly jobs report on Friday, which is the last ahead of the March Federal Reserve meeting. Speaking of the Fed, Chair Jerome Powell will be in focus on Wednesday and Thursday when he testifies to the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee respectively. It’s also a big week on the political front, with ‘Super Tuesday’ as well as the State of the Union address from President Biden.
Mar 03, 202423:57
What might the US election mean for the sharemarket?

What might the US election mean for the sharemarket?

As we look ahead to the US presidential election in November, many will be pondering how this might influence the investment outlook. The election is eight months away, but March is an important month on the US political calendar. Next week Super Tuesday should tell us what we already know - that we’re headed for a Biden vs Trump contest, the first since presidential rematch 1956. Two days after that, President Biden will give his State of the Union address. What does history tell us about how the sharemarket performs during election years, and how should investors approach this important event?

Feb 27, 202413:47
The week ahead - will the Reserve Bank increase the OCR this week?

The week ahead - will the Reserve Bank increase the OCR this week?

The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.7% last week, closing at a new record high partly on the back of another very strong result from NVIDIA. The chipmaker and key AI exposure rose another 8.5% last week, which sees it up 59.2% so far this year (following a 238.9% gain in 2023). European and Japanese shares were also strong, both rising 1.4% as indices in both regions hit fresh peaks. The Nikkei 225 in Japan finally surpassed it’s 1989 highs after 34 years, while the European Stoxx 600 exceeded its previous peak from January 2022. Hear more about of these moves, as well as what the Reserve Bank might do on Wednesday afternoon.

Feb 24, 202426:52
High share prices don’t always mean expensive

High share prices don’t always mean expensive

Some investors baulk when they see a high share price, but they shouldn’t. A company’s share price tells us absolutely nothing about whether it’s expensive or cheap and if anything, it can often be a sign of a strong track record. Don’t be put off by high share prices, or the illusion of value that can come from a low price. Dig a little deeper and consider each investment on its merits. Some of the best opportunities are the ones that might look the most expensive (on the face of it).
Feb 20, 202414:34
The week ahead

The week ahead

Monetary policy will remain in focus this week, with the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting due for release as well as the ECB's account of its January meeting. Flash PMIs are out on Thursday in most of the major economies, and these will provide useful insights into how economic activity is tracking this year. Locally, retail sales will be a highlight on Friday, while we'll see the results of the latest dairy auction midweek. The earnings season gets going on the NZX this week, with a plethora of companies due to announce results including Freightways, a2 Milk, EBOS Group, Auckland Airport, Scales and Port of Tauranga. The international reporting season is winding down, although all eyes will be on NVIDIA on Wednesday, while results from Air Liquide, Home Depot, Walmart and Nestle are also due.
Feb 17, 202420:23
Is it too late to buy US stocks?

Is it too late to buy US stocks?

The US market has had a stunning run over the past year or so. The S&P 500 index peaked in January 2022, before declining 25.4 per cent over the following nine months in the wake of rapidly increasing interest rates. Since those October 2022 lows, the market has rebounded 40.5 per cent. In recent weeks it’s surpassed the peak from two years ago, moving past 5000 points for the first time. Against that backdrop, is it too late to invest in US stocks?

Feb 13, 202414:29
The week ahead

The week ahead

What a week! We saw the S&P 500 sharemarket index in the US rise another 1.4%, closing at a fresh record high and pushing through 5000 points for the first time. There was also plenty of action in New Zealand, as wholesale interest rates rose to a three-month high on the back of strong economic indicators and a bold OCR call from the ANZ economics team. The Reserve Bank will be in focus this week, while the international reporting season continues and some local companies will get in on the earnings action.
Feb 10, 202429:26
Are ETFs a gamechanger for Bitcoin?

Are ETFs a gamechanger for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin took a big step forward last month, with the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US finally giving approval for exchange traded funds to begin trading on the sharemarket. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) quickly emerged as one of the favourites, passing US$1 billion in investor inflows within just five days. This trend could well continue, and there could be a large pool of new money that’ll flow into these funds. For some looking to dip their toes into the world of crypto investing, ETFs could hold more appeal than previous options. Our advice would be to remember the usual investment guidelines and if you do choose to get involved, keep allocations small and don’t go overboard.
Feb 06, 202415:25
The week ahead

The week ahead

The S&P 500 in the US rose another 1.4% last week, closing at fresh highs on the back of impressive earnings releases (including a very strong one from Meta) and robust economic indicators. The US market has started the new year where it left off in 2023, having gained 4.0% barely a month into 2024. Other sharemarkets performed well, with the Australian ASX 200 posting a very strong gain of 1.9% and also finishing last week at a new record high, while the local market was solid with the NZX 50 index rising 0.5%. It'll be another holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand with Waitangi Day on Tuesday, which will make for a quieter market. We'll get the latest global dairy trade auction results early on Wednesday, and later that day the labour force report for the December quarter is due. The international earning season will continue, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results. Some of the highlights across the world are likely to include Caterpillar, McDonald's, Eli Lilly, Alibaba, Costco, CVS Health, Disney, PayPal and Unilever.

Feb 03, 202423:21
Is a soft landing upon us?

Is a soft landing upon us?

It’s starting to look like the US Federal Reserve might’ve done the impossible (or at least the very rare) and achieved a soft landing. If that’s the case, there’s no need for these high interest rates to overstay their welcome and cause an unnecessary recession. For investors, this would make for a much more attractive backdrop. It could mean markets perform better than many expect from here, and that the long-awaited collapse in prices some have been calling for might not come. If that’s the case, those patiently waiting for that lucrative buying opportunity to emerge might find themselves left behind. It might be time to acknowledge what could go right, just in case the Fed’s done the unlikely and pulled this off.


Jan 30, 202410:49
The week ahead

The week ahead

Last week was a very good one for world sharemarkets. The S&P 500 in the US posted a 1.1% gain, having hit a new record high this month as inflation and economic indicators added to confidence a soft landing can be achieved. European shares surged 3.2% last week, the UK market rose 2.3%, and the Australian ASX 200 posted a 1.8% gain. The local market also had its best week since early November, with the NZX 50 gaining 1.8%. Looking ahead, this coming week is shaping up as a very busy one. In the US, the highlight will be the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year, while on the data front we'll get the latest ISM manufacturing index and the monthly jobs report. Here in New Zealand, the highlight of the week will be the ANZ Business Outlook survey for January. Markets will also be watching Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway’s speech on Tuesday morning, to get an update on how the central bank views some of the recent data. It'll be another busy week of earnings releases- too, with 75 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results. Big tech will be in focus, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Meta all due to report.

Jan 27, 202418:39
Are you prepared for a fall in income?

Are you prepared for a fall in income?

Short-term deposits are offering great value right now, but don’t get too content. Within six months interest rates could be headed lower, and after the first cut they’re likely to keep falling. If that happens, investors will be facing much less attractive reinvestment rates and a rapidly declining income stream. By the second half of this year, money could be moving back toward other assets amidst falling deposit rates. Rather than waiting for the herd to catch on, savvy investors might want to think about adjusting their strategy sooner rather than later.





Jan 24, 202415:31
New Year encore - Average sharemarket returns are great, but returns are rarely average

New Year encore - Average sharemarket returns are great, but returns are rarely average

This is our final New Year encore episode before we're back into the swing of things next week, and this one was a personal favourite of ours! Between 1900 and today, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That means an investor has, on average, doubled their money every 7.4 years. That’s a recipe for wealth generation, and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been three per cent per annum over that entire period) and your purchasing power is maintained. However, what’s equally interesting is to consider the typical return in any given calendar year. We did that, and the results surprised us!
Jan 18, 202409:34
New Year encore - Should I pay off the mortgage, or invest?

New Year encore - Should I pay off the mortgage, or invest?

Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? This is a very common question, but it’s especially relevant today. Mortgage rates are at 15-year highs, with borrowing costs at levels many homeowners won’t have experienced before. Paying down the mortgage as quickly as you can is sensible, and it’ll set you on the path to financial freedom. However, it’s not black or white and using some of that spare money to invest along the way will also pay off.

Jan 13, 202411:01
New Year encore - What sort of returns are you “really” getting on your money?

New Year encore - What sort of returns are you “really” getting on your money?

When is a five per cent return no return at all? The answer depends on the inflation rate, and if you're keeping pace with the cost of living. In this encore episode from April 2023, we'll explain the difference between nominal returns and real returns, why investors need to be mindful of the difference, and how we need to invest to ensure we grow their capital over the long term.
Jan 09, 202416:60
Six big questions for investors in 2024

Six big questions for investors in 2024

Welcome back to On Point in 2024. In our first new episode of the year, we'll ponder some of the key questions investors are asking themselves at the moment. Will interest rates finally start to fall, can the housing market rebound continue, and how will sharemarkets both here and offshore perform in 2024? Let's discuss and debate some of the potential answers.


Jan 07, 202418:53
New Year encore - Jump right into the market, or sit tight until later?

New Year encore - Jump right into the market, or sit tight until later?

If you’re lucky enough to have a bit of surplus cash at the moment, it’s a difficult time to think about putting it to work. You want your hard-earned capital to work productively, but it’s scary to think about venturing into financial markets (or any asset class, for that matter) with your savings. Jumping in boots and all could be unwise, while sitting back and waiting for perfect conditions to emerge can also backfire. In this popular episode from 2023, we discussed some of these challenges and talk about strategies investors can use to get invested. If you missed it the first time, take a listen!

Jan 04, 202415:03
New Year encore - Why the sharemarket is nothing like a casino

New Year encore - Why the sharemarket is nothing like a casino

This was a popular episode from 2023, and its messages are still very relevant for newer investors, as well as those with more experience. Take a listen if you missed it the first time around, or simply remind yourself of these timeless investing concepts! One of our least favourite sharemarket analogies is when it’s said to be just like a casino. While some traders might treat their portfolio like a sports betting account, for genuine investors this comparison couldn’t be further from the truth. You might get lucky a few times at the casino, but the more you play the greater your chances of losing. In contrast, when it comes to investing in the sharemarket, the longer you stay the better your odds of success.
Jan 01, 202409:49
Recapping the key market moves of 2023

Recapping the key market moves of 2023

2023 is done and dusted, and while it was challenging at times, as well as eventful, it ultimately proved to be a very lucrative year for investors. Some of the key stories included faster than expected declines in inflation, an interest rate rollercoaster, and the emergence of AI as a prevalent market theme. Join us to reflect on all of this and more in this episode that details asset class returns and recaps some of the biggest market events of the last year.
Dec 30, 202317:24
The week ahead

The week ahead

Markets are set to end the year on a high note. The S&P 500 in the US has rallied 22.9% this year and is within 2% of its record high from January 2022, while the local NZX 50 has increased for seven consecutive weeks, its longest winning streak since 2019. Interest rates fell sharply last week, buoyed by signs central banks are done and could be cutting interest rates within six months. In our final "The Week Ahead" episode for 2023, we'll discuss all of these things as well as what to watch in the coming days to keep your finger on the market pulse!
Dec 16, 202327:52
Looking ahead to 2024

Looking ahead to 2024

We’re on the home stretch, and 2023 has been a surprisingly good year for investors. Conservative assets have returned to form with a five per cent gain, while world shares have also been strong, returning almost 20 per cent, which is well above the long-term average. In contrast, the local sharemarket has been a notable laggard, with the NZX 50 flat with just two weeks to go. Looking ahead to 2024, there are some obvious positives, such as the prospect of further declines in inflation and potentially interest rate cuts. How might financial markets perform in the year ahead, are we out of the recessionary woods, and what should investors be thinking about for their portfolios?


Dec 12, 202329:44
The week ahead

The week ahead

Last week was another good one for investors, with shares and fixed income rising further. The S&P 500 in the US posted a 0.2% gain, finishing at its highest level since March 2022, while the local NZX 50 rose 1.1%. Not only was that the sixth consecutive weekly gain (the longest winning streak in more than a year), but it saw the index move back into marginal positive territory on a year-to-date basis. The coming week is a very busy one, as the end of the calendar year looms. Central banks will be in the spotlight, with monetary policy decisions due from the Federal Reserve in the US, as well as the Bank of England, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank. Global growth will also be in focus, with December flash purchasing managers' indices out on Friday, as well as monthly economic indicators in China. September quarter gross domestic product figures out on here in New Zealand, while we should also get a housing market update from the Real Estate Institute.

Dec 09, 202323:06
A November to remember

A November to remember

November lived up to its name as a very good month for investors. World shares were up 9.3 per cent, the best return in three years. The S&P 500 in the US rallied 8.9 per cent and the local NZX 50 posted an impressive 5.3 per cent increase, the biggest monthly gains for both indices since July 2022. It wasn't just shares that had a great month, with conservative assets getting in on the action too. US bonds had their best month since 1985 (with a 4.5 per cent rise), while the NZX Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index posted a 2.7 per cent increase, the strongest since the index came into being in 2001. Why was November such a strong month, and what might determine whether this strength continues through to the end of the year?


Dec 05, 202319:43
The week ahead

The week ahead

November lived up to its name as a very good month for sharemarkets around the world, with the S&P 500 rallying 8.9% and the NZX 50 posting an impressive 5.3% increase. Those were the best monthly gains for both indices since July 2022. It wasn't just shares that had a great month in November, with US bonds posting the best monthly performance since May 1985 (+4.5%) and New Zealand corporate bonds enjoying their strongest monthly gain in at least 20 years. Let's talk about all of that, as well as last week's bombshell OCR forecast from the Reserve Bank, and the key events that we expect to shape the coming week across financial markets.





Dec 03, 202321:58
Average sharemarket returns are great, but returns are rarely average

Average sharemarket returns are great, but returns are rarely average

Shares have delivered impressive long-term returns. The US is the biggest market in the world, and its long history lends itself well to analysis. Between 1900 and today, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That means an investor has, on average, doubled their money every 7.4 years. Not bad at all. That’s a recipe for wealth generation, and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been three per cent per annum over that entire period) and your purchasing power is maintained. However, what’s equally interesting is to consider the typical return in any given calendar year. I did that, and the results surprised me.


Nov 29, 202309:34
The week ahead

The week ahead

There's no shortage of things to watch this week, with Wednesday’s Reserve Bank meeting (which is the last of the year) likely to be the main event. Nobody is expecting any change in interest rates, but the updated projections in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement will be very important. There will be plenty of corporate earnings releases to monitor across the New Zealand market too, including interim results from market heavyweights Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Ryman Healthcare, both of which are on Wednesday. Markets will also be digesting the news of what our new government looks like, and which policies have survived negotiations.

Nov 25, 202324:52
Is it time for more asset sales?

Is it time for more asset sales?

Should asset sales be a topic up for discussion? We’re carrying higher debt than in the past, while our creaking infrastructure ensures there’d be no shortage of uses for the funds raised. Demand from investors wouldn’t be a problem, as our small sharemarket has limited options to satisfy the steady stream of KiwiSaver money that rolls in each month. The mixed ownership model has been a huge success in New Zealand, providing the best of both worlds to the taxpayer. It’s fostered stronger businesses and broadened the range of options available to local investors, helping keep more of our investment capital within our shores. Forward-thinking politicians would be wise to shelve any misconceptions and embrace these opportunities.
Nov 21, 202313:02
The week ahead

The week ahead

US shares had another very strong week, with the S&P 500 rising 2.2%. The index is up 7.6% in November and on track for its best month in more than a year. The NZX 50 in New Zealand was more subdued, although it still added 0.3% for its third consecutive weekly gain. The local market has rallied 3.9% this month, on track for its best performance since January. Looking ahead, it will be a holiday-shortened week in the US, with markets closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. There will also be an early close on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving and the unofficial start to the Christmas shopping season. The highlight of the global economic calendar will be the flash PMIs for November. Investors will be watching to see if manufacturing rebound continues, and whether the services sector weakens further. There's a bit happening on the corporate front too, with Oceania Healthcare, Goodman Property Trust and My Food Bag all set to announce earnings in New Zealand, while in the US artificial intelligence will be in focus when NVIDIA releases its latest result on Tuesday.

Nov 18, 202325:06
The diversification dilemma

The diversification dilemma

Many principles of investing are considered compulsory, and one of these is the need for diversification. It can mean spreading your capital over different asset classes, such as bonds and fixed income as well as shares and real estate, or ensuring you own a range of companies across multiple regions and sectors. Being diversified protects you from the risk of major losses, just in case something goes wrong with one of your individual investments or holdings. Let's talk about the basics of diversification, how much is too much, and why some investors might advocate for a more concentrated approach.

Nov 14, 202321:06
The week ahead

The week ahead

The key economic release this week will be the October inflation report in the US. Due Tuesday, the headline consumer price index is expected to slow further, although core inflation is forecast to remain stubbornly high. Markets will also be watching US retail sales on Wednesday. Politics will also be in the spotlight, ahead of Friday's deadline for US Congress to avert a government shutdown as well as the APEC economic leaders' week in San Francisco continuing throughout the week. US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on Wednesday, amidst a deteriorating relationship between the world's two biggest economies. Locally, we'll get the October housing report from the Real Estate Institute, as well as the latest migration figures. Earnings releases will be forthcoming from Napier Port, Serko and Infratil, while Precinct Properties, Contact Energy and a2 Milk will be among those holding annual meetings.
Nov 11, 202318:58
Policymakers face a balancing act as unemployment rises

Policymakers face a balancing act as unemployment rises

Investors have been heartened by reports of softer economic conditions, an easing labour market and slowing wage growth in both New Zealand and the US. These are necessary developments for inflation to moderate and interest rates to stop rising. However, the outlook is finely balanced. When unemployment starts rising it tends to keep rising, and even modest increases have historically meant a downturn becomes hard to avoid. We want conditions to weaken, but not too much. So far, so good, but this can be a very difficult needle to thread.

Nov 08, 202314:04
Will last week's market rebound continue?

Will last week's market rebound continue?

Global sharemarkets have had a difficult few months, with the S&P 500 in the US and the NZX 50 here in New Zealand falling more than ten per cent between the end of July and late October. That’s been unsettling for investors, and there are still plenty of uncertainties ahead of us. However, a case can also be made for a stronger finish to 2023. Here are five reasons why markets could rebound over the balance of the year.

Nov 06, 202313:52
The week ahead

The week ahead

Global sharemarkets rebounded strongly last week, with investors encouraged by softer economic indicators and evidence of easing labour markets that could mean interest rates are close to a peak. The S&P 500 in the US surged 5.9%, its best weekly performance in a year, while the NZX 50 here in New Zealand posted the best weekly gain in 16 months with a rise of 3.3%. This week markets will be listening closely to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and watching the Reserve Bank of Australia to see if interest rates rise further across the Tasman. The international earnings season will continue, while a number of domestic companies will be holding annual meetings and market heavyweight Mainfreight will report its interim result.
Nov 04, 202324:55
Is the NZX headed for an unwanted three-peat?

Is the NZX headed for an unwanted three-peat?

After a solid first half of the year, it’s been a difficult few months for the local sharemarket. The NZX 50 has fallen more than ten per cent since the end of July, to just above the post-COVID lows from the middle of last year. This weakness has seen it slip about six per cent into the red on a year-to date basis, putting it on track for a third consecutive annual decline. In data going back to the mid-1960s, New Zealand shares have never declined for three years in a row, making this a somewhat unwanted milestone. What’s driving this weakness, and what would it take to turn things around?

Oct 31, 202325:09
The week ahead

The week ahead

Global sharemarkets remain under pressure, with the S&P 500 in the US and the NZX 50 in New Zealand both down more than 10% since July. Rising global yields have been a key culprits, and although we saw a decline last week these remain close to the highest in many years. This week will be another very busy one, with central bank meetings taking palce in the UK, UK and Japan, as well as key economic releases such as the US jobs report and Chinese PMIs. Locally, the latest unemployment figures will be of interest, as will the final election results with the outcome of special votes to be announced on Friday. The reporting season will continue across the world, with McDonalds, Caterpillar, Ecolab, CVS Health, Apple, Starbucks and Zoetis likely to be some of the highlights.

Oct 29, 202322:07
The sharemarket is nothing like a casino

The sharemarket is nothing like a casino

One of our least favourite sharemarket analogies is when it’s said to be just like a casino. While some traders might treat their portfolio like a sports betting account, for genuine investors this comparison couldn’t be further from the truth. You might get lucky a few times at the casino, but the more you play the greater your chances of losing. In contrast, when it comes to investing in the sharemarket, the longer you stay the better your odds of success.

Oct 24, 202309:49
The week ahead

The week ahead

Markets have remained under pressure of late, with rising global bond yields and the conflict in the Middle East creating uncertainty for investors. However, we've seen a few positives as well, with local inflation figures coming in softer than expected and Chinese economic indicators beating expectations. Looking to the week ahead, there are a number of annual meetings to keep an eye on here in New Zealand, while the earnings season ramped up overseas with results due from the likes of 3M, Microsoft, Coca-Cola, Alphabet (Google) and Amazon.
Oct 21, 202318:09
Should borrowers fix or float, and for how long?

Should borrowers fix or float, and for how long?

Whether to fix or float, and for how long is a common question for borrowers to ask. With interest rates at 15-year highs and household budgets considerably tighter than in the past, there’s more riding on these decisions today. Those who opt for a lengthier fixed term will save some money in the immediate future, but they might find themselves stuck on higher rates if the winds change. In that case, it might be preferable to select a shorter-term rate and keep your options open. As with most money matters, the best course of action will depend on your individual situation. However, here’s our take on the issues to consider at this juncture.


Oct 18, 202318:28
The week ahead

The week ahead

There's plenty to monitor in the week ahead, with Federal Reserve officials in focus as six of the seven Board members speak publicly before the blackout period begins ahead of the next meeting. The most important appearance will be that of Chair Jerome Powell, which takes place on Thursday at the Economic Club of New York. China will be in the spotlight on Wednesday, with the release of monthly economic indicators as well as gross domestic product for the September quarter. There will also be plenty to monitor on the corporate calendar, with the international reporting season set to heat up with results from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and Tesla. Here at home, markets will have the election results from the weekend to ponder, as well as the latest inflation figures and the results of another dairy auction. Auckland Airport and Tourism Holdings are holding annual meetings this week, while all eyes will be on Fletcher Building when it resumes trading on Monday morning when the market opens.


Oct 15, 202314:14
Election 2023 - A mood for change wins the day

Election 2023 - A mood for change wins the day

A change of government was confirmed last night, with Christopher Luxon from the National Party set to be our new Prime Minister. Preliminary figures reflect a much stronger showing than expected from National, which ended with a very healthy 39 per cent of the party vote. However, those hoping for a relatively straightforward two-party coalition between National and Act shouldn’t get their hopes up. With more than half a million special votes still to be counted, there's a good chance NZ First will still be required to form a government. What happens next, when might we know the final outcome, and what does this mean for investors and financial markets?

Oct 15, 202315:19
The rise and rise of global bond yields

The rise and rise of global bond yields

The biggest story across financial markets in recent weeks has been rising bond yield. This has pushed up borrowing costs across the board, and sent mortgage rates higher despite the Official Cash Rate remaining unchanged since May. Higher bond yields have also taken the wind out of other asset classes, including the sharemarket. Why is this happening, and what should borrowers and investors be thinking about against this backdrop of interest rate volatility?





Oct 11, 202318:37
What might the conflict in the Middle East mean for markets?

What might the conflict in the Middle East mean for markets?

The military conflict in the Middle East over the weekend has added to the list of geopolitical worries, and led to a fresh bout of volatility across financial markets. The hostilities escalated when militants affiliated with Hamas initiated a large-scale attack against Israel. These tragic developments have led to a significant human toll, and raised grave concerns about an extended conflict. Somewhat ominously, last Friday marked 50 years since the Yom Kippur War started. This armed conflict also began with a surprise attack against Israel and it was a catalyst for this oil shock. Are we headed for another stagflationary period like the 1970s, and what might this conflict mean for investors?


Oct 09, 202316:03
The week ahead

The week ahead

We're back after a week away and there's no shortage of action across financial markets to talk about! Another busy week looms, with a crucial inflation report due in the US just as bond yields hit 15-year highs. We'll also see the September quarter global reporting season begin, with some of the financial heavyweights set to release earnings reports late in the week. On the local front, the election will take centre stage on Saturday. Will we see a change of government, what could that mean for investors, and how might Winston Peters feature in the outcome?

Oct 07, 202328:11