Don Paul Bits o' Blather on Weather, Climate, & Science

My recollections of the "Snovember" lake effect event, an incredibly paralyzing  storm, impacting the southern half of Buffalo and its eastern and southern suburbs. Up to 7 feet of snow fell to the south, with many thousands stranded on area highways for long periods. Here is what went into the forecasting of this ultimate 'whopper', and how it actually came to be a well-forecast event.

3 consecutive record warm days in Western New York and much of the northeast will fade away by midweek as cooler air arrives. Cooler does not = Colder, however. How is November likely to turn out, and does our strong La Nina mean we will be milder all the time? We look ahead. PLEASE SHARE, thanks!

Overall, most polls performed very poorly again, even after polling companies (they are not owned by "the media") stated they were making corrective compensations for errors committed in 2016. Is political polling more difficult than weather forecasting and, if so, why might that be? I'm not sure I have THE answer, but I do have some ideas on the comparison. PLEASE SHARE, thanks!

In work done at Penn State, there are hopeful indications that judicious use of antiseptic mouthwashes and rinses may produce a significant lessening of COVID transmission from the mouth and nasopharyngeal cavity, all readily available over the counter products many of us are already using. NONE of the Penn State findings are intended to imply this would lessen the necessity for wearing masks in the least. PLEASE SHARE

We may be in the midst of an electoral debacle, but COVID rages on, unimpeded by the election--for now. It turns out weather affects human behavior, which can have a drastic impact on contagion one good way or, if bad choices are made, in a very bad way. HOWEVER, Earlier hopes that warm weather would help kill the virus itself have turned out to be a false lead.

It's understandable why, in the midst of the disastrous pandemic, a warming climate psychologically may take a back seat in many minds. But the threats of ongoing and increasing warming are not going away, and the world faces an enormous challenge. Here is the latest on greenhouse gases.

A general forecast and extended outlook locally in Western New York and for the eastern US, with a notable moderating trend developing by Wednesday...and LASTING. Also, a quick look at national Election Day weather conditions. PLEASE SHARE.

Vanderbilt's elite School of Medicine has done a definitive study on the rate of hospitalizations and the wearing of masks. How can there still be so much mass ignorance and prejudice against science in this grave-and-quickly-worsening pandemic? The evidence is a large minority of our population is behaving illogically and dangerously, following scientifically illiterate leadership, mass disinformation on a cable channel as well as in social media. Epidemiologists say our bellweather now is Europe, where people started letting their guards down after months of having flattened the curve. Now, much of Europe have again seen huge spikes in infection, hospitalization, and mortality.

Strengthened Hurricane Zeta, now at 100mph as of 1pm CDT, makes landfall in SE Louisiana late Wed afternoon, producing storm surge, wind, and some flooding damage. Damaging winds may reach as far NE as northern GA late Wed night. Zeta remnant curl off toward the Atlantic coast, combining with a nontropical cold storm system, bring lots of rain, and some snow on the hills.

The remnant low from Hurricane Zeta (likely to make landfall later Wednesday night near SE Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane) combining with a non-tropical low which has brought heavy, blowing snow to Colorado and New Mexico will send a surge of moisture to the middle Atlantic and northeast states. By late Thursday night, enough cold air may trail this developing storm to produce an elevation-driven widespread accumulating slushy snowfall. For NYC and Boston, the storm will bring strong winds, rain, and possible coastal flooding.

As we head into the cold weather months, you'll be hearing more and more about the polar vortex. This atmospheric feature can have drastic effects on winter weather and, even in the midst of a warming climate (and sometimes BECAUSE of a warming climate) can deliver shorter duration wintry blasts.

Taking a brief break from science, this is a tale about my contact with the NYC mob in pre-tv meteorology job at WNEW Radio in New York. I think you'll find it funny and the best part--it's all true!

It's not just the silliness of Farmers Almanac forecasts which defy any laws of physics. There are private sector weather forecasting companies whose owners and managers know better, but still put out 30-90 day DAILY forecasts. Do such forecasts demonstrate any skill? The answers are in this podcast episode. PLEASE SHARE.

Confidence is high a moderate to strong La Nina will persist into and through the winter season. What does that mean for general weather trends during the winter season, what are the important potential exceptions to those trends for shorter periods of time?

The science on Covid keeps advancing and, yes, much has changed since late winter. This episode reflects the medical and epidemiological consensus on the state of disease and, hopefully, lowering the critical increase in the rate of infection in most of the U.S.

Since science evolves with newer research, this is an updated checklist on what the medical community now knows about Covid, and what you need to know to reduce the risk of contagion from this incredibly infectious virus.

"High Winds" in meteorology doesn't just mean strong, gusty winds. A High Wind WARNING is a severe weather warning, in which widespread damage is occurring or is likely, and should be treated as severe weather. High Wind events become more likely in mid and late autumn, and again in early spring. So, even though lots of newspeople throw around the term "high winds" it's time to pay close attention when your meteorologist and National Weather Service relay a High Wind WATCH (maybe) or WARNING (imminent). If you're enjoying this podcast, please SHARE.

The idea we can quickly achieve widespread herd immunity by allowing COVID to run its course, magically protecting vulnerable populations, is worse than ludicrous. It would be mass Depraved Indifference.

No doubt, there have tens of thousands of still unexplained sightings of Unidentified Flying Objects, among the many more which HAVE been explained. Does that mean the odds are high we have been visited and are still being visited by alien spacecraft? Short answer: Nah. Standing on the shoulders of astrophysicists' and astrobiologists' work, I explain the near certain mathematical probabilities nobody out there knows we are here. If you're enjoying this podcast, PLEASE SHARE...it's the only way for a new podcast to grow in listenership, now available on 7 platforms.

Lake effect snow typically is a narrow band of snow driven by cold winds over warmer Great Lakes waters with arctic air aloft. THIS storm came historically early, was poorly forecast, and produced widespread damage and devastation. My "tale of woe" is not all about me...and it's not boring, even if you're listening in El Paso!

Yes, it's mid October, and the nation still gets tornadoes--sometimes large scale outbreaks--in the fall. Here are some basic tips on what the public across the nation needs to know about tornado watches and warnings, and what they mean to you. If you're enjoying this podcast, PLEASE SHARE.

Even though millions swear by homeopathic products, there is no evidence--despite many hundreds of studies--they do anything other than produce a placebo effect at best or, at worst, provide a delaying tactic for someone who really needs orthodox medical diagnosis and treatment for a more serious disease. 

We all hear about "Big Pharma," (highly regulated by the FDA) but most of us seldom hear about the "Big Supplements" business, largely unregulated for safety and product efficacy, dosage, and purity. Congress has not given FDA the mandate or the staffing to go after the many fraudulent and/or dangerous products put out by a number of supplements companies who not only get many of us to waste our $$, but who often expose some of us to hazards.

Winter outlooks are not all laypeople crack them up to be. The longer I've engaged in meteorology, the more important and numerous variables which must be considered have become. Uncertainty has increased over what was already the uncertain venture of making a seasonal outlook. All that said, even though I lean slightly toward a milder than average late fall and winter, I'll explain why--for shorter periods--"all hell can still break loose."

Why meteorologists and climate scientists now CAN make a direct tie-in between our warming climate and some individual extreme weather events. 

A "feeler" as to how many weather, science and occasional humor fans may care on listening in to frequent podcasts from an alternative Donald J (My name is Donald J. Paul, as long as nobody's asking.)