Common Sense Fantasy Baseball

@rundmcd is back to talk about evaluating risk!  (AKA "Dave tells me the 3 pitchers I'm allowed to draft this year!")

11:20 Carlos Rodon

22:05 Jacob deGrom

31:15 Shane Bieber

38:50 Chris Sale

44:15 Luis Severino

54:05 Clevinger vs Verlander

1:14:43 Clayton Kershaw, and Dinelson Lamet "When I see PRP, I'm out." - Dave

1:27:30 Zac Gallen

Find us on Twitter!  He's @rundmcd, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Greg (@gjewett9) helps me size up EVERY team once again, as I do last minute cramming for my Main Event draft tomorrow.

2:05 Baltimore Orioles

3:20 Boston Red Sox

5:25 Chicago White Sox

5:50 Cleveland

9:45 Detroit Tigers

10:45 Houston Astros

12:20 KC Royals

13:50 LA Angels

15:10 Minnesota Twins

16:30 NY Yankees

17:10 Oakland A's

18:15 Seattle Mariners

19:55 Tampa Rays

25:35 Texas Rangers

26:55 Toronto Blue Jays

27:40 Arizona Diamondbacks

29:20 Atlanta Braves

30:25 Chicago Cubs

31:40 Cincinnati Reds

33:40 Colorado Rockies

35:20 LA Dodgers

36:25 Miami Marlins

37:20 Milwaukee Brewers

38:35 NY Mets

39:15 Philadelphia Phillies

41:10 Pittsburgh Pirates

44:10 San Diego Padres

46:25 SF Giants

48:30 St Louis Cardinals

50:10 Washington Nationals

51:55 Speculative pick ups, stashes, and late round darts

Find us on Twitter!  He's @gjewett9, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Rob and I talk about his podcast and his leagues, and how we're building our teams in DC leagues and FAAB leagues.

06:20 Differences in drafting strategies for Draft and Hold (Draft Champions) leagues vs FAAB leagues

11:00 Catchers

16:45 Closers

22:45 Stolen Bases

31:25 Luis Robert

37:55 Keston Hiura and Javy Baez (and other swing and miss guys)

44:25 Tim Anderson

51:10 Prospects

58:00 Pitchers (Means, Urquidy, Yarbrough, Minor)

1:12:00 Late DC picks

He's @deadpullhitter, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Dave (@RunDMcD) shares what he's learned through years of experience, about how to assess players' risks in fantasy baseball.

1:45 Verlander, going into 2020

6:00 How to think about taking a guy off your board completely

9:35 Sale, Syndergaard, and Severino (don't draft guys who won't be playing)

11:45 Taillon (it can take a while to get back your skills)

18:10 deGrom (we can disagree on how much risk there is, but don't ignore it as a part of the assessment)

27:40 Scherzer (we all see the risks, but we don't seem to know how to price them in)

31:40 Strasburg (fear of the unknown plus the price...plus the fact that he's had injury issues all through the years)

34:10 Lamet (he's injured now...plus, PRP means TJ a lot of the time)

37:20 Carrasco (the risk/reward is a value at the price)

40:30 Musgrove (going late enough to take a risk)

43:35 Canning (after pick 300, go for upside)

46:25 Stanton vs Buxton (price matters, many paths to value, UT downgrade, career IL days, paying for a career year, volume of injuries vs the type of injury -- both matter)

He's @RunDMcD, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

@MattWi77iams and I discuss some players we think are going too early:

3:40 Jose Abreu around pick 30 and Luke Voit around pick 60 - Matt

8:25 Pablo Lopez around pick 100 - Drew

15:45 Walker Buehler around pick 20 - Matt

20:30 Kyle Lewis around pick 75 (but even at pick 100-120) - Drew

26:05 Randy Arozarena around pick 60 - Matt

-- 32:20 an aside on Mondesi --

Then we discuss some players we think are going too late:

38:00 Austin Meadows and Yoan Moncada (around pick 85) - Matt

41:45 Matt Chapman around pick 120 - Drew

45:50 Rafael Devers around pick 50 - Matt

48:00 Zack Greinke around pick 100 - Drew

54:00 Bryan Reynolds around pick 325 - Drew

He's @MattWi77iams, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Greg (@gjewett9) and I look at every MLB team and discuss the closer situation, as best we can tell in November.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1:30 Baltimore Orioles

3:40 Boston Red Sox

6:20 Chicago White Sox

8:25 Cleveland Indians

11:10 Detroit Tigers

13:50 Houston Astros

15:50 Kansas City Royals

18:10 Los Angeles Angels

20:10 Minnesota Twins

21:30 New York Yankees

23:50 Oakland Athletics

26:20 Seattle Mariners

27:35 Tampa Bay Rays

29:10 Texas Rangers

31:45 Toronto Blue Jays

NATIONAL LEAGUE

33:55 Arizona Diamondbacks

36:15 Atlanta Braves

38:30 Chicago Cubs

41:05 Cincinnati Reds

43:40 Colorado Rockies

45:35 Los Angeles Dodgers

47:45 Miami Marlins

50:25 Milwaukee Brewers

54:10 New York Mets

57:05 Philadelphia Phillies

59:15 Pittsburgh Pirates

1:02:05 San Diego Padres

1:04:45 San Francisco Giants

1:06:15 St Louis Cardinals

1:07:15 Washington Nationals

1:08:10 BONUS - Greg's Hader-type breakout formula

He's @gjewett9, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Zack and I take a look at early ADP from Justin Mason's "2 Early Mock Drafts" and Zack's draft and hold leagues that are drafting for real already.

4:10 We gently poke fun at mock drafts and point out some shortcomings

Then we discuss players we think are going too early (AVOIDS):

7:10 Mike Clevinger at ADP 61 (Zack)

19:40 Pete Alonso at ADP 53 (Drew)

25:55 Sixto Sanchez at ADP 80 (Zack)

34:00 Gleyber Torres at ADP 63 (Drew...Zack disagrees)

40:05 Gary Sanchez at ADP 169 (Zack)

45:35 Joey Gallo at ADP 127 (Drew)

Next we move on to players we think are going too late (TARGETS):

50:35 Gio Urshela at ADP 158 (Drew) ...take him instead of Vlad!

56:40 Zach Plesac at ADP 80 (Zack)

1:04:25 Tommy Edman at ADP 179 (Drew)

1:10:30 Dansby Swanson at ADP 106 (Zack)

1:18:07 Triston McKensie at ADP 208 (Drew)

1:27:30 Michael Pineda at ADP 275 (Zack)

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Toby returns to talk about some up and coming players!

1:10 the keys to Toby's success in 2020

4:45 Off season prep begins!  We start by discussing some lessons learned.

Then we discuss some breakout players:

16:10 Corey Seager

27:40 Luke Voit

34:45 Teoscar Hernandez

42:05 Kyle Lewis

49:20 Dominic Smith

56:00 An aside about Stolen Bases

1:00:50 Austin Nola

1:05:40 Some other guys (Slater, Santander, Cronenworth, Arozarena, Walsh, Happ, Moore)

1:21:40 Who could be the Corbin Burnes or Dylan Bundy of 2021?

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Some thoughts on strike out rate, BABIP, and what they mean for batting average.

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Opening day didn't happen...yet.  But @gjewett9 and I discuss baseball anyway!

2:00 Greg's current project

6:05 Bo Bichette - SS

20:35 Isiah Kiner-Falefa - C

25:35 Josh Bell - 1B (and a great call out by Greg, CJ Cron)

30:30 Jeff McNeil - 2B (with Cesar Hernandez call out by Greg)

35:35 Yandy Diaz - 3B

39:00 OFs (Judge, Eloy, Stanton, Soler, Franimal, Schwarber)

45:00 Luzardo and Urias - SPs (Greg's call out: Rich Hill)

48:35 RPs

56:15 Rougned Odor

59:05 Ian Happ (or Dansby Swanson one pick later!)

Welcome back @zackroto!

We start off talking some strategy:

1:40 Top SPs - Aces, Pocket Aces and how we draft them

5:10 The case for an Ace

10:50 Draft Champions vs FAAB leagues -- the point in the draft where strategy changes

Then we discuss rounds 19 and 20:

18:05 Avoid AJ Pollock at 272

19:45 Avoid Joey Votto at 271

20:55 Buster Posey or Danny Jansen?

23:35 Gregory Polanco and his risks vs Solak, Wil Myers, or others and their risks

26:35 What if Solak wasn't UT only?

27:45 Players that drop and players to reach on

29:50 Domingo Santana's path to playing time

31:50 SPs I'm not really looking at here (largely because of innings concerns and other PT risks)

34:25 Not so into Myers or Kieboom for 2020

35:20 Josh James or Mackenzie Gore rather than lower-upside options

38:30 Catchers without much upside, and closers that might not be closers

39:20 Target Dylan Carlson at 295!  (instead of Kyle Tucker way earlier...or maybe at all)

43:40 More pitchers I'm just not drafting

44:45 Target Domingo Santana at 292

46:20 Avoid Austin Riley for 2020 (at pick 294)

48:00 Corey Dickerson - kinda boring and inconsistent

48:50 Kyle Seager and Willy Adames

51:30 My weird take on Travis Shaw

And we even give some bonus picks (after 300):

57:20 Zack advises me against Kevin Pillar at pick 307

59:40 Target Evan White at 349

1:00:15 Target Matt Magill at 333

1:01:00 Matt Carpenter -- what do you think, Zack?

1:02:05 Target Robinson Cano at 336

1:04:45 What's a good floor player after pick 300?

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome John (@MLBMovingAVG) as we discuss our draft process and talk some ADP.

1:15 It's all about PRICE.  As John says, "You can't force your will on the market."

2:25 Drafting in reverse

7:15 Take the value (when you have players whose skills are close, going far apart)

10:50 Jim Cramer show up briefly

13:30 AJ Puk aka Axl Rose

Then we get into round 17 and 18...

15:35 Adrian Houser (ADP 248) and his pitch-mix changes (sinkers for GBs, curveballs for Ks)

34:10 Shin-Soo Choo (ADP 241) vs Austin Hays (ADP 251) ...unabashed age-ism

42:20 Mark Canha (ADP 257) and his crazy OBP-league value

47:25 Starling Castro (ADP 261) and his late-2019 push

49:30 Aaron Civale (ADP 269) is impossible to barrel, and team context is fantastic

51:45 Chris Archer (ADP 268) is K machine, but not the best for ratios, and team context is pretty meh

57:40 Yandy Diaz (ADP 258) and Renato Nunez (ADP 256) and Joey Votto (ADP 270) -- maybe find a 1B before this

1:06:10 Emilio Pagan (ADP 259), Brandon Kintzler (266), Scott Oberg (260), Wade Davis (265) -- not a good spot for RPs

1:17:20 Sam Hilliard (ADP 267) and the crowded Rockies OF (a team built for platoons)

1:21:55 Trent Grisham (ADP 286) vs all these other OF guys

1:37:30 Cesar Hernandez (ADP 264) at a position that's harder to fill

1:41:35 Positions available here and what to do with them

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Max!  He's @FreezeStats on Twitter.  We talk about:

0:40 Max's blog and research

4:40 Players who earned more HR than they achieved

9:15 We consider what Dodger Stadium could do for Mookie Betts

14:50 "Not all barrels are created equal" (Launch angle and pulling the ball matter a ton)

20:25 Ozuna - example of a pull hitter who "earned" more than he achieved

22:35 Adding in Alex Chamberlain's "Deserved Barrels"

25:00 We move on to a player debate on Oscar Mercado

Then we discuss rd 15...

38:05 Probably avoid Jo Adell at 210

40:20 Target Justin Upton at 220

41:10 Target Avisail Garcia at 224 (and hope he plays every day!)

42:20 Throw back to "Not all barrels are created equal" -- Max's next research project

43:25 Target Rougned Odor at 217

45:25 Target Jose Urquidy

47:45 Avoid Kolten Wong at 216

48:55 Discussion on Narvaez and other catchers in this range

51:00 One last exhortation to avoid risky closers...although Nick Anderson might be a value even without 20+ saves.

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Mike! Twitter: @SPStreamer

First we take a quick look back at earlier rounds and some guys Mike targets and avoids:

1:40 Target Sonny Gray at 98

8:20 Target Carlos Santana at 144

10:35 Avoid Chris Paddack at 51

13:45 Avoid Keston Hiura at 42

Then we get into rounds 13 and 14: 

19:00 Target Kenta Maeda (currently 184)

25:00 Target Hunter Dozier (186)

27:35 Bryan Reynolds / PIT discussion

30:45 Carlos Martinez discussion

33:15 Avoid Lance McCullers (194)

34:40 Luke Weaver discussion

36:15 Avoid Sean Doolittle (185) and Giovanny Gallegos (196) and Nick Anderson any presumptive closer where there is role-risk or committee risk

40:55 Target Luke Voit (200)

44:00 Avoid Didi Gregorius (201)

47:50 Quick thoughts on Joe Mugrove and Brandon Lowe

48:45 Target Christian Walker (202)

51:30 Heaney and Folty discussion

53:50 Senzel and McCutchen discussion

56:35 Target Christian Vazquez (210)

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Big thanks to Matt (@MattWi77iams) for joining me to discuss a couple very full rounds of ADP!

We discuss a few of Matt's #2020PlayerBreakdowns:

4:45 Lourdes Gurriel

11:30 Jeff McNeil

12:50 Projecting growth

15:50 Garrett Hampson

19:30 Max Kepler

Then we look at players going in the 11th and 12th rounds (ADP 151 -  180).

30:15 Target: Corey Seager at ADP 156

33:55 Target: Scott Kingery at 159

39:00 Potential Target: Gavin Lux at 161

41:25 Avoid: Emilio Pagan at 151

42:25 Target: Kyle Hendricks at 154

45:55 Target: Jorge Polanco at 157

47:10 Avoid: Byron Buxton at 164

49:00 Random Trea Turner discussion

52:05 Potential Target: Julio Urias at 165

55:45 Target: Salvador Perez at 168

58:30 Target: Edwin Encarnacion at 170

1:00:30 Avoid: Aristides Aquino at at 173

1:02:40 Target: JD Davis at 180

1:09:40 Avoid: Sean Manaea at 172

1:12:00 Bonus Target: Khris Davis at 181

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Brian (@RuddHQ on Twitter) and enjoy our discussions about the following players!

1:25 Tyler Glasnow at ADP ~68 (4:35 vs Paxton or Woodruff)

6:50 Hector Neris at ~140 (10:25 vs Iglesias, Kimbrel, Jansen, and Diaz)

13:50 Yasiel Puig at ~115 (19:15 vs Benintendi, Mercado, and Luis Robert)

25:25 Rhys Hoskins at ~116 (33:05 vs Carlos Santana or Edwin Encarnacion)

39:10 Adalberto Mondesi at ~35 (50:30 vs Villar or Robles) 57:35 What do you do later with SBs if you take Mondesi?

1:00:25 Danny Santana at ~125 (1:05:30 vs Kingery or Goodrum)

Thanks for listening!  I'd love it if you write a review on iTunes, and please find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

0:00 Intro

1:30 Cody Bellinger

5:15 Domingo Santana (I said .335...he's actually hitting .345!)

8:00 Tim Beckham

10:05 Dan Vogelbach

13:00 Tim Anderson

14:45 Trey Mancini

0:15 Rd 1

Yelich!

2:00 Rd 2 - Rd 5

Freeman / Bogaerts / G Sanchez / Robles

4:25 Rd 6 - Rd 12

J Turner / Pollock / A Rosario / Cano / Maeda -- SP1 in Round 10! / Strickland / Braun

7:00 Rd 13 - Rd 20

Urias / Burnes / Skaggs / McNeil / Soler / F Peralta / Chirinos / R Zimmerman

9:30 Rd 21 - 30

Caleb Smith / Whitley / Minor / Parker / B Lowe / Morales / D Castillo / Vargas / K Zimmer / T Rogers

 Hit me up on Twitter with your feedback!  https://twitter.com/commonsensefbb

0:00 Intro and NFBC

0:50 Reasons 1 - 5

2:35 Reasons 6 - 10

Hit me up on Twitter with your feedback!  https://twitter.com/commonsensefbb

0:00 Intro

1:10 Competitive Leagues

9:45 Resources!  (Getting Baseball News)

12:30 Resources!  (General Fantasy Analysis)

15:35 Resources!  (Prospects)

18:25 Resources!  (Twitter)

20:30 Tweet at me!