Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro
By Bitcoin Magazine
Ck and Ansel interview the best analysts, traders, and thinks in both Macro economics and Bitcoin as well as give the audience their takes of important news and press conferences in the macro space.
This is the perfect podcast to learn about and stay on top of Bitcoin, Macro Economics, and the world at large.
Fed Watch - Bitcoin and MacroOct 27, 2021
Massive Week in Macro Review- FED 123
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Our podcast feed is changing to the Bitcoin Magazine feed! Subscribe here!
Fed Watch is a macro podcast like no other. We question narratives and schools of thought, trying to form our own understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK is back with us for a huge week in macro. We cover all the big events of the week like the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting and Chairman Powell’s comments, the US CPI data released on Tuesday, and finally, the big decision out of the European Central Bank about their policy changes. Of course we cover bitcoin as well, along with some other macro charts.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram (link) for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com (link) to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Episode specific links
NEW PODCAST FEED after this episode https://anchor.fm/bitcoin-magazine-po/
Ansel Lindner https://twitter.com/ansellindner
CK https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Slide deck: http://tiny.cc/3732vz
Bitcoin & Markets Telegram: https://t.me/bitcoinandmarkets
Powell press conference: https://youtu.be/Ho2iJXlcmR8
CPI data: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
ECB policy changes: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hawkish-ecb-hikes-50bps-will-begin-qt-march-raises-inflation-expectations
If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
$80 Trillion in Shadow Banking - FED 122
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast like no other. We question narratives and schools of thought, trying to form our own understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I’m joined once again by Nolan Bauerle, new host of Bitcoin Magazine Live. We spend a good amount of time going through my macro charts for the week, you can find them in this week’s slide deck. Next, we discussed the BIS report of the missing $80 trillion in some detail. Lastly, we reviewed China’s latest economic data and discussed the state of global shipping and where we think China is going.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram (link) for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com (link) to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Episode specific links
Ansel Lindner https://twitter.com/ansellindner
CK https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Slide deck: https://tinyurl.com/4vcy9av9
Bitcoin & Markets Telegram: https://t.me/bitcoinandmarkets
BIS report: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf
China trade shrinks: https://apnews.com/article/business-china-asia-global-trade-economy-4d316f787cf4123981d47a3f5c78da7f
Global shipping shrinks: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/freight-rates-from-china-to-west-coast-down-90percent-as-trade-falls-rapidly.html
If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
What Does the Fed Even Do? - FED 121
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast like no other. We question narratives and schools of thought, trying to form our own understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I’m joined by Nolan Bauerle, new host of Bitcoin Magazine Live. Our main topics of discussion are Jerome Powell and his Brookings Institute speech, and the growing conflict in Turkey. I had prepared some charts (you can see them in the linked slide deck above), but was not able to get to them due to time constraints. It’s a wide ranging discussion about societal signaling, monetary policy and even demographics.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro
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Resistance and FUD in Bitcoin, FOMC Minutes, and Foxconn Riots - FED 120
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I celebrate Thanksgiving by telling what we're thankful for in Bitcoin. Our main topics include the bitcoin chart and review of the FTX and GBTC story. Next, we drill down on the Fed’s recently released FOMC minutes, mixed messaging from board members and likelihood of policy direction. The last topic for the day is China, starting with the riots at Foxconn and then a general discussion about their demographics.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:
Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/
Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro
Lower your time preference and lock-in your B
The Market is Pivoting, Forget the Fed - FED 119
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover our reactions to the FTX debacle, the latest CPI numbers out of the US, the new CBDC pilot by the Federal Reserve and banks, and touch on the G20 meeting in Bali. We run out of time at the end and don’t cover it as well as I’d like to, but perhaps I’ll remedy it with a supplemental episode before next week.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Link mentioned in the podcast: Jason Choi’s definitive FTX thread
THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:
Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/
Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
Jerome Powell Contradicts Fed's Own Statement, Chaos Ensues - FED 118
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover Jerome Powell and the FOMC policy decision in depth, quoting the Federal Reserve itself, Powell, and other financial experts. Of course, we give our own opinions on the matter, as well. After Fed Day content we move onto charts, starting with bitcoin and the dollar, and moving onto Treasury securities rates. Lastly, we discuss the diesel shortage brewing on the US east coast.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Check out the Bitcoin Magazine products presented dur
Bulls Are Back, Plus China Congress Fallout - FED 117
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover extremely important updates for the future of the global economy. First, we talk about the Bitcoin breakout. Then continue rolling through several more macro charts, including currencies, US Treasury yields, European natural gas prices, and finally freight rates, both bulk dry and container rates. Lastly, we listen to several clips from a China expert on what happened at the 20th Party Congress, and what it means for the future of China.
Here is the original video source of the clips.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
Clown World: UK Gilts, China’s No-Win Situation, and European Natural Gas - FED 116
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover a large chunk of the ongoing macro news. First, we update the situation in the UK Gilt market. Then swing over the China to cover developments from the 20th Party Congress, the real estate market, and the general investment climate. Lastly, we discuss the European energy crisis and current storage situation.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
Federal Reserve vs UN and OPEC - FedWatch 115
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover a large chunk of the ongoing macro news. First, the NY Fed’s Williams speech on inflation, then the UN report demanding central banks change course, and finally the OPEC+ decision to cut quotas by 2 million barrels per day (mbd).
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
Bank of England Pivots First ! - ft. David Lawant - FED 114
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I got the privilege to sit down with David Lawant of Bitwise to discuss macro and its relation to Bitcoin. We cover Bitwise and David’s take on the current Bitcoin market, price, and ETF likelihood. On the macro side, we cover the UK emergency monetary policy change and China’s pivot on the Belt and Road lending practices.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Special guest: David Lawant
Slide deck for episode
Fed Policy and European Energy Crisis ft. Andreas Steno - FED 113
In this episode, CK and I got the privilege to sit down with Andreas Steno, editor at Real Vision, co-host of the Macro Trading Floor podcast, and author of Steno Signals substack. Our discussion centers around the energy situation in Europe, but we start with talking about the Federal Reserve’s FOMC rate hike. Andreas has extensive knowledge of Bitcoin and his podcast Macro Trading Floor is hosted through Blockworks, which means we also got to pick his brain about his thoughts on the Bitcoin market.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Special guest: Andreas Steno
CPI, China Crisis Deepens, and Globalists are Losing - Fedwatch 112
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. In each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I get down and dirty in the August CPI data, some shocking Chinese economic data, and we talk about bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Making Sense of the European Crisis - FEDWATCH 111
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I examine the current state of the Bitcoin market, the state of panic in Europe including some myths about the EU/Russia conflict, and finally read through an article about how China is really a Marxist country and proud of that fact.
Join my telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Zoltan’s Three Pillars Versus Reality - FED 110
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I break down some charts, including bitcoin, the dollar, European energy, and US gasoline futures. Next, I read through a couple articles and address the complicated financial situation in China. Lastly, we examine what the big deal is with Zoltan Pozsar’s latest dispatch about “Chussia”.
Join my telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
ECB Recognizing the Stakes and Jackson Hole Preview - FED 109
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I revisit the Pakistan problems, check out the bitcoin chart and currencies, discuss what’s coming up for the Federal Reserve, and then dive into the European Central Bank’s most recent report on CBDCs.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT and Rumble videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
ECB Recognizing the Stakes and Jackson Hole Preview - FED 109
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I revisit the Pakistan problems, check out the bitcoin chart and currencies, discuss what’s coming up for the Federal Reserve, and then dive into the European Central Bank’s most recent report on CBDCs.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT and Rumble videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
China Rate Cuts and Jamie Dimon’s Warning - FED 108
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I dive into the surprise rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and read through some of Jamie Dimon’s recent leaked comments about the global economy and geopolitics.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT and Rumble videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
China Rate Cuts and Jamie Dimon’s Warning - FED 108
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I dive into the surprise rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and read through some of Jamie Dimon’s recent leaked comments about the global economy and geopolitics.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT and Rumble videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Accelerating China Issues | Bitcoin’s Place in Macro - FED 107
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode of Fed Watch, CK and I go through several charts, giving market updates on bitcoin, the dollar (DXY), and the Hong Kong dollar. Next, we examine the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, and ask the question, is it the next Sri Lanka. Lastly, we discuss the Taiwan - China situation and I read several important snippets, one from Chinese foriegn minister Wang Yi and the other from think tank expert Wang Wen.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Accelerating China Issues | Bitcoin’s Place in Macro - FED 107
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode of Fed Watch, CK and I go through several charts, giving market updates on bitcoin, the dollar (DXY), and the Hong Kong dollar. Next, we examine the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, and ask the question, is it the next Sri Lanka. Lastly, we discuss the Taiwan - China situation and I read several important snippets, one from Chinese foriegn minister Wang Yi and the other from think tank expert Wang Wen.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Calling the Globalist's Bluffs - Fed Watch 106
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebellious nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode of Fed Watch, CK and I go through several charts, using them to springboard into different topics. We cover the bitcoin chart, the dollar, the Hong Kong dollar, US Treasury yields, and energy charts like oil, gasoline and natural gas.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
All images are sourced to bitcoinandmarkets.com.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Calling the Globalist's Bluffs - Fed Watch 106
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebellious nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode of Fed Watch, CK and I go through several charts, using them to springboard into different topics. We cover the bitcoin chart, the dollar, the Hong Kong dollar, US Treasury yields, and energy charts like oil, gasoline and natural gas.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
All images are sourced to bitcoinandmarkets.com.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Defining Recession - FED 105
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Guests: Q_liketheletter and Chris Alaimo
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I’m joined by Q and Chris of the live stream crew to talk about the recession vs not-a-recession vs depression debate. I also dive into understanding the temporary effects of fiscal spending by governments and the brick wall facing the global economy, demonstrated through yield curves. We finish up with a Q & Ansel (Q&A) with questions from the guys and my community.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
You can find the slide deck for this episode here.
Defining Recession - FED 105
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Guests: Q_liketheletter and Chris Alaimo
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I’m joined by Q and Chris of the live stream crew to talk about the recession vs not-a-recession vs depression debate. I also dive into understanding the temporary effects of fiscal spending by governments and the brick wall facing the global economy, demonstrated through yield curves. We finish up with a Q & Ansel (Q&A) with questions from the guys and my community.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
You can find the slide deck for this episode here.
Alarming China Financial Crisis | Credit-based Money Trap and Bitcoin - FED 104
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I catch up on the week, go through an update on the evolving Chinese financial crisis, talk about why “fiat” money today should rightly be called credit-based money and the side effects of that fact, and lastly, we dive into the bitcoin chart and so forth.
You can access this episode’s slide deck of charts here or below, depending on the medium where you are viewing these show notes.
Please check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube, subscribe and share.
ChinaFirst up, is the situation in the Chinese economy. They are facing some major issues in their real estate market, economy and banking system. Currently, 28 of the top 100 real estate developers have defaulted on or restructured their debts. There is a growing “mortgage boycott”, where purchasers of unbuilt housing units in projects that are now delayed due to the pandemic, developer financial situation, and zero Covid policy, have refused to pay their mortgages. It started with 20 projects and has since grown to 230 projects.
The boycott accounts for roughly 100,000 households refusing to pay their mortgages. This amounts to 0.1-0.5% of all outstanding mortgages and 1% of outstanding mortgage value.
The rhetoric around this mortgage crisis is eerily similar to that in the US in 2007. Excuses like it is a small number of mortgages, effects are contained, and others are being used.
As a result of the developer and mortgage problems, small and medium-sized banks are running
Alarming China Financial Crisis | Credit-based Money Trap and Bitcoin - FED 104
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I catch up on the week, go through an update on the evolving Chinese financial crisis, talk about why “fiat” money today should rightly be called credit-based money and the side effects of that fact, and lastly, we dive into the bitcoin chart and so forth.
You can access this episode’s slide deck of charts here or below, depending on the medium where you are viewing these show notes.
Please check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube, subscribe and share.
ChinaFirst up, is the situation in the Chinese economy. They are facing some major issues in their real estate market, economy and banking system. Currently, 28 of the top 100 real estate developers have defaulted on or restructured their debts. There is a growing “mortgage boycott”, where purchasers of unbuilt housing units in projects that are now delayed due to the pandemic, developer financial situation, and zero Covid policy, have refused to pay their mortgages. It started with 20 projects and has since grown to 230 projects.
The boycott accounts for roughly 100,000 households refusing to pay their mortgages. This amounts to 0.1-0.5% of all outstanding mortgages and 1% of outstanding mortgage value.
The rhetoric around this mortgage crisis is eerily similar to that in the US in 2007. Excuses like it is a small number of mortgages, effects are contained, and others are being used.
As a result of the developer and mortgage problems, small and medium-sized banks are running
The Focus on the Fed is Wrong, Here’s Why ft. Joe Carlasare - FED 103
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Guest: Joe Carlasare
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I sit down for an interview with commercial litigator and co-host of the Inside Bitcoin podcast, Joe Carlasare. Joe is a no nonsense analyst of bitcoin, the bond market, and monetary dynamics. He is known for saying that all our models for bitcoin are dead, and I thought this would be a good opportunity to get him on and hash out some new narratives for bitcoin, especially being that we see eye-to-eye on many things in macro. Joe is also appearing in an upcoming series with Bitcoin TINA and CK about the future path and new models for bitcoin valuation, which should be out very soon on Bitcoin Magazine.
Joe and I start by breaking down the yield curve and the importance of the recent inversions. With the 10-year US Treasury yield falling under the 2-year, the curve is “officially” inverted, and signals that the deepest most sophisticated market in the world is pricing in an economic downturn. In other words, there is a landmine in the near future that we can glimpse by looking at the yield curve.
We also discussed the impotence of the Federal Reserve and cult-like mythology surrounding the Federal Reserve. Joe is an adherent to the Eurodollar framework of the financial system, and as such does not believe the central banks are central to their economies. What we have today is a bank centered system, and the mechanism of central bank policy is through expectation management, not cold hard supply and demand as the mythology would have us believe.
We have a wide-ranging discussion on commodities, the future path of QE and CPI, Japanification, and the dollar shortage. We finally arrive at trying to form some new narratives in bitcoin that will be sustainable in the monetary reality we are experiencing.
This is a great episode and I hope to get Joe back on so we can dig
The Focus on the Fed is Wrong, Here’s Why ft. Joe Carlasare - FED 103
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Guest: Joe Carlasare
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I sit down for an interview with commercial litigator and co-host of the Inside Bitcoin podcast, Joe Carlasare. Joe is a no nonsense analyst of bitcoin, the bond market, and monetary dynamics. He is known for saying that all our models for bitcoin are dead, and I thought this would be a good opportunity to get him on and hash out some new narratives for bitcoin, especially being that we see eye-to-eye on many things in macro. Joe is also appearing in an upcoming series with Bitcoin TINA and CK about the future path and new models for bitcoin valuation, which should be out very soon on Bitcoin Magazine.
Joe and I start by breaking down the yield curve and the importance of the recent inversions. With the 10-year US Treasury yield falling under the 2-year, the curve is “officially” inverted, and signals that the deepest most sophisticated market in the world is pricing in an economic downturn. In other words, there is a landmine in the near future that we can glimpse by looking at the yield curve.
We also discussed the impotence of the Federal Reserve and cult-like mythology surrounding the Federal Reserve. Joe is an adherent to the Eurodollar framework of the financial system, and as such does not believe the central banks are central to their economies. What we have today is a bank centered system, and the mechanism of central bank policy is through expectation management, not cold hard supply and demand as the mythology would have us believe.
We have a wide-ranging discussion on commodities, the future path of QE and CPI, Japanification, and the dollar shortage. We finally arrive at trying to form some new narratives in bitcoin that will be sustainable in the monetary reality we are experiencing.
This is a great episode and I hope to get Joe back on so we can dig
Dollar, commodities and Q&A - FED 102
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I go through what’s coming up for the Fed, tons of macro charts, the spike in Credit Suisse CDS, BIS news about making bitcoin a reserve asset banks can hold, and take some Q&A from Twitter.
You can access the slide deck with charts here. Enjoy.
We will be back to our regular time next week, Tuesdays at 3:00 P.M. Eastern time on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel. Mark your calendars!
LinksMore details BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed102
Slide deck with charts https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Kz6NiwJaI9fhRN6vnLPnf3uNVEgQ3ssSx2h_zW3sdvo/edit?usp=sharing
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Dollar, commodities and Q&A - FED 102
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I go through what’s coming up for the Fed, tons of macro charts, the spike in Credit Suisse CDS, BIS news about making bitcoin a reserve asset banks can hold, and take some Q&A from Twitter.
You can access the slide deck with charts here. Enjoy.
We will be back to our regular time next week, Tuesdays at 3:00 P.M. Eastern time on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel. Mark your calendars!
LinksMore details BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed102
Slide deck with charts https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Kz6NiwJaI9fhRN6vnLPnf3uNVEgQ3ssSx2h_zW3sdvo/edit?usp=sharing
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Fragmentation in the Euro and Dollar, The Bitcoin Solution - FED 101
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners.
Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I tackle a question CK put to me in FED 100, namely, why does the Euro face fragmentation risk and the dollar doesn’t? My answer on the last show was sub-par, so I thought I’d take it up again, this time with more nuance. When evaluating the dollar’s fragmentation risk, we can look at it from an internal perspective of fragmentation within the 50 States, or an external perspective of a fragmentation of the global dollar system. I answer the question in this episode from both angles, and also explain how bitcoin becomes a “must have” money in the future.
We livestream most of our shows on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel on Tuesdays at 3:00 P.M. Eastern time. Mark your calendars!
LinksHere is some further reading on internal differences:
Academic paper https://sci-hub.ru/10.1257/aer.103.3.125
Associated LSE blog post https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/08/26/the-us-may-show-the-eu-the-way-forward-on-fiscal-integration/
Historic defense/security costs https://eh.net/encyclopedia/military-spending-patterns-in-history/
Fiscal politics in the Euro Area https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/wp1718.ashx
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
Fragmentation in the Euro and Dollar, The Bitcoin Solution - FED 101
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners.
Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I tackle a question CK put to me in FED 100, namely, why does the Euro face fragmentation risk and the dollar doesn’t? My answer on the last show was sub-par, so I thought I’d take it up again, this time with more nuance. When evaluating the dollar’s fragmentation risk, we can look at it from an internal perspective of fragmentation within the 50 States, or an external perspective of a fragmentation of the global dollar system. I answer the question in this episode from both angles, and also explain how bitcoin becomes a “must have” money in the future.
We livestream most of our shows on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel on Tuesdays at 3:00 P.M. Eastern time. Mark your calendars!
LinksHere is some further reading on internal differences:
Academic paper https://sci-hub.ru/10.1257/aer.103.3.125
Associated LSE blog post https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/08/26/the-us-may-show-the-eu-the-way-forward-on-fiscal-integration/
Historic defense/security costs https://eh.net/encyclopedia/military-spending-patterns-in-history/
Fiscal politics in the Euro Area https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/wp1718.ashx
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
Japan YCC fails, Bullwhips, and Fragmentation - FED 100
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed100
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover developments in Japan in regards to Yield Curve Control, in the US in regards to growth and inflation forecasts, and in Europe in regards to the concern about fragmentation. At the end of the episode, we celebrate the 100th episode of Fed Watch by reviewing some of the guests and calls we have made throughout the show's history.
Big Trouble in JapanThe economic troubles in Japan are legendary at this point. They have suffered through several lost decades of low growth and low inflation, addressed by the best monetary policy tools of the day, by some of the best experts in economics (maybe that was the mistake). None of it has worked, but let's take a minute to review how we got here.
Japan entered their recession/depression back in 1991 after their giant asset bubble burst. Since that time, Japanese economic growth has been averaging roughly 1% a year, with low unemployment, and very low dynamism. It's not negative GDP growth, but it's the bare minimum to have an economic pulse.
To address these issues, Japan became the first major central bank to launch Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2001. This is where the central bank, Bank of Japan (BOJ) would buy government securities from the banks in an attempt to correct any balance sheet problems, clearing the way for those banks to lend (aka print money).
That first attempt at QE failed miserably, and in fact, caused growth to fall from 1.1% down to 1%. The Japanese were convinced
Japan YCC fails, Bullwhips, and Fragmentation - FED 100
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed100
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover developments in Japan in regards to Yield Curve Control, in the US in regards to growth and inflation forecasts, and in Europe in regards to the concern about fragmentation. At the end of the episode, we celebrate the 100th episode of Fed Watch by reviewing some of the guests and calls we have made throughout the show's history.
Big Trouble in JapanThe economic troubles in Japan are legendary at this point. They have suffered through several lost decades of low growth and low inflation, addressed by the best monetary policy tools of the day, by some of the best experts in economics (maybe that was the mistake). None of it has worked, but let's take a minute to review how we got here.
Japan entered their recession/depression back in 1991 after their giant asset bubble burst. Since that time, Japanese economic growth has been averaging roughly 1% a year, with low unemployment, and very low dynamism. It's not negative GDP growth, but it's the bare minimum to have an economic pulse.
To address these issues, Japan became the first major central bank to launch Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2001. This is where the central bank, Bank of Japan (BOJ) would buy government securities from the banks in an attempt to correct any balance sheet problems, clearing the way for those banks to lend (aka print money).
That first attempt at QE failed miserably, and in fact, caused growth to fall from 1.1% down to 1%. The Japanese were convinced
Central Bankers In Their Own Words - FED99
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed99
If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen!
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I listen and react to highlights from this month’s two central bank press conferences, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Central banks are one of the most misunderstood institutions in our modern world. Many analysts simply tell you what the Fed or the ECB thinks and what they do to disrupt the global economy, but on our show, we like to give you primary source material from which you can start to form your own educated opinion.
We live stream most of our shows on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel on Tuesdays at 3pm eastern. Mark your calendars!
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s highlights and reactionChairman Powell’s comments were highlighted by a few narratives. These are simply what they say they are doing, not our analysis.
- Their primary concern is inflation fighting
- They will be adaptive to new data
- A tight employment market threatens to exacerbate inflation
- They cannot affect the supply side, so they will tamp down demand to bring down prices
The main metric guiding the Federal Reserve’s course of rate hikes is CPI and “inflation” expectations. There are several ways to measure this, the Fed uses consumer surveys. This is a critical distinction between surveys and market-derived expectations, because surveys will not distinguish s
Central Bankers In Their Own Words - FED99
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed99
If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen!
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I listen and react to highlights from this month’s two central bank press conferences, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Central banks are one of the most misunderstood institutions in our modern world. Many analysts simply tell you what the Fed or the ECB thinks and what they do to disrupt the global economy, but on our show, we like to give you primary source material from which you can start to form your own educated opinion.
We live stream most of our shows on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel on Tuesdays at 3pm eastern. Mark your calendars!
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s highlights and reactionChairman Powell’s comments were highlighted by a few narratives. These are simply what they say they are doing, not our analysis.
- Their primary concern is inflation fighting
- They will be adaptive to new data
- A tight employment market threatens to exacerbate inflation
- They cannot affect the supply side, so they will tamp down demand to bring down prices
The main metric guiding the Federal Reserve’s course of rate hikes is CPI and “inflation” expectations. There are several ways to measure this, the Fed uses consumer surveys. This is a critical distinction between surveys and market-derived expectations, because surveys will not distinguish s
Bitcoin Price Analysis and Macro ft. Tone Vays - FED 98
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I get to sit down with Tone Vays, a true bitcoiner and long time price and macro analyst in Bitcoin. Our discussion ranges from the current conditions, to Bitcoin cycles, to broader macro topics including the state of Europe, Euro, and US politics. You can follow Tone on Twitter, instagram and YouTube.
You can find the charts for this episode on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed98. And watch the live stream on Bitcoin Magazine’s channel.
Current Bitcoin Market ConditionsIn the first segment of the podcast, Tone talks about the psychological state of the Bitcoin market. Paraphrasing:
“I was around for the last two bear markets. 2013 was the classic bubble chart, you were mentally prepared for what’s to come. 2017, again, the ICOs, it was an unreasonable exponential rise, so you were mentally prepared. I wasn’t mentally prepared for this one. Because, when the top came in April 2021, we had an incredible amount of good news. Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey leaving Twitter to go all in on Bitcoin with Square (Block), El Salvador, then El Salvador buying bitcoin.
“That turned into a sell the news event. 50% correction, no big deal. Everyone was mentally fine with it. Then, this is where it’s all about your mental state. When we went back and broke that top, in November, that was THE breakout. Everyone thought we were going higher, I thought we were going higher. That fakeout in November was mentally brutal. We crashed back the $30,000 low, broke down to $20,000, and over the last 3-6 months people have been very very concerned.
“This prolonged move has made people tighten their belts. Mentally, they feel like they were cheated and don’t think bitcoin should be at these lows. Bitcoin was built for this world we are seeing right now with all the uncertainty. They are stealing bank accounts from not just individuals, like in Canada, but from sovereign countries. Bitcoin was built for this, but the price keeps going down. People are starting to throw in the towel. Everyone is saying lower, lower, lower. This is where I have to believe that the majority is always wrong.”
Bitcoin CyclesI asked Tone about bitcoin valuation models and 4-year cycles, whether they are all broken and if we need to find a new model.
He says he thinks models always fail. Stock-to-flow is theoretically correct in Tone’s mind, but it cannot be successfully used as a technical indicator. As for the 4-year halving cycle, Tone believes that it is partly due to hype and partly due to actual supply shocks.
That is my position here on Fed Watch as well. It has its own hype cycle, completely separate from the overall bitcoin hype. Kind of similar to how altcoins try to hype their hard fork upgrades, bitcoin accomplishes that naturally through the halving.
However, I think the hype is lesse
Bitcoin Price Analysis and Macro ft. Tone Vays - FED 98
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I get to sit down with Tone Vays, a true bitcoiner and long time price and macro analyst in Bitcoin. Our discussion ranges from the current conditions, to Bitcoin cycles, to broader macro topics including the state of Europe, Euro, and US politics. You can follow Tone on Twitter, instagram and YouTube.
You can find the charts for this episode on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed98. And watch the live stream on Bitcoin Magazine’s channel.
Current Bitcoin Market ConditionsIn the first segment of the podcast, Tone talks about the psychological state of the Bitcoin market. Paraphrasing:
“I was around for the last two bear markets. 2013 was the classic bubble chart, you were mentally prepared for what’s to come. 2017, again, the ICOs, it was an unreasonable exponential rise, so you were mentally prepared. I wasn’t mentally prepared for this one. Because, when the top came in April 2021, we had an incredible amount of good news. Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey leaving Twitter to go all in on Bitcoin with Square (Block), El Salvador, then El Salvador buying bitcoin.
“That turned into a sell the news event. 50% correction, no big deal. Everyone was mentally fine with it. Then, this is where it’s all about your mental state. When we went back and broke that top, in November, that was THE breakout. Everyone thought we were going higher, I thought we were going higher. That fakeout in November was mentally brutal. We crashed back the $30,000 low, broke down to $20,000, and over the last 3-6 months people have been very very concerned.
“This prolonged move has made people tighten their belts. Mentally, they feel like they were cheated and don’t think bitcoin should be at these lows. Bitcoin was built for this world we are seeing right now with all the uncertainty. They are stealing bank accounts from not just individuals, like in Canada, but from sovereign countries. Bitcoin was built for this, but the price keeps going down. People are starting to throw in the towel. Everyone is saying lower, lower, lower. This is where I have to believe that the majority is always wrong.”
Bitcoin CyclesI asked Tone about bitcoin valuation models and 4-year cycles, whether they are all broken and if we need to find a new model.
He says he thinks models always fail. Stock-to-flow is theoretically correct in Tone’s mind, but it cannot be successfully used as a technical indicator. As for the 4-year halving cycle, Tone believes that it is partly due to hype and partly due to actual supply shocks.
That is my position here on Fed Watch as well. It has its own hype cycle, completely separate from the overall bitcoin hype. Kind of similar to how altcoins try to hype their hard fork upgrades, bitcoin accomplishes that naturally through the halving.
However, I think the hype is lesse
Supply Chains by the Numbers - FED 97
Supply Chains by the Numbers - FED 97
If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen!
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I discuss supply and demand, demand destruction, supply chain bottlenecks, shipping and inventory in the US. I take a look at a few representative charts you can find below, including lumber futures, lithium futures, Baltic Dry Index, 40-foot container rates, US inventory glut, and others.
Demand DestructionThe below simple graph shows supply versus demand during a supply shock and follow on demand destruction. What we are about to see in the US is a huge spike in demand destruction, so the demand curve will shift to the left. This will cause a dramatic lowering of prices and shrinking of the economy.
Don’t be worried though, because most people can’t afford to keep the economy (demand) at current levels, and a lowering of demand will allow people to reallocate and get into a better place.
Supply Chain ChartsThese are a few charts I use to show the relaxation of supply chain problems, and to demonstrate that prices will normalize.
Lumber is coming down.
Lithium is a market that combines many disparate aspects of the economy right now, all unique affected in this crisis: supply chains since it is mined mainly in Australia, Chile, and China; semiconductors since batteries are used in electronics; and electric cars whose demand is affected by oil prices and globalists agendas. As you can see, lithium prices are coming down for the first time in over a year.
The Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) is the rate for bulk raw materials like steel and coal. It too, is coming down, and far past the peak of mid-2021.
Freightos is an index for 40-foot container shipping rates. It is falling off a cliff, despite the China lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing.
Inventory GlutThe following charts can be found in a recent post by Jeff Snider on Alhambra Partners blog. It shows the unprecedented increase in inventories that has occurred in the US over the last 6 months. It is already starting to affect retailers like Target, who this week announced stopping purchasing orders and slashing prices to fight glutted inventory.
What happens when demand softens (as it has been) and inventories start to get liquidated. Prices will fall dramatically.
This was the largest and fastest increase in inventories on record in the US. Compared to other periods of big inventory gains, like 2003-2005, which was a 7% increase over 20 months, this spike is 11.5% in only 6 months.
Supply Chains by the Numbers - FED 97
Supply Chains by the Numbers - FED 97
If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen!
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I discuss supply and demand, demand destruction, supply chain bottlenecks, shipping and inventory in the US. I take a look at a few representative charts you can find below, including lumber futures, lithium futures, Baltic Dry Index, 40-foot container rates, US inventory glut, and others.
Demand DestructionThe below simple graph shows supply versus demand during a supply shock and follow on demand destruction. What we are about to see in the US is a huge spike in demand destruction, so the demand curve will shift to the left. This will cause a dramatic lowering of prices and shrinking of the economy.
Don’t be worried though, because most people can’t afford to keep the economy (demand) at current levels, and a lowering of demand will allow people to reallocate and get into a better place.
Supply Chain ChartsThese are a few charts I use to show the relaxation of supply chain problems, and to demonstrate that prices will normalize.
Lumber is coming down.
Lithium is a market that combines many disparate aspects of the economy right now, all unique affected in this crisis: supply chains since it is mined mainly in Australia, Chile, and China; semiconductors since batteries are used in electronics; and electric cars whose demand is affected by oil prices and globalists agendas. As you can see, lithium prices are coming down for the first time in over a year.
The Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) is the rate for bulk raw materials like steel and coal. It too, is coming down, and far past the peak of mid-2021.
Freightos is an index for 40-foot container shipping rates. It is falling off a cliff, despite the China lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing.
Inventory GlutThe following charts can be found in a recent post by Jeff Snider on Alhambra Partners blog. It shows the unprecedented increase in inventories that has occurred in the US over the last 6 months. It is already starting to affect retailers like Target, who this week announced stopping purchasing orders and slashing prices to fight glutted inventory.
What happens when demand softens (as it has been) and inventories start to get liquidated. Prices will fall dramatically.
This was the largest and fastest increase in inventories on record in the US. Compared to other periods of big inventory gains, like 2003-2005, which was a 7% increase over 20 months, this spike is 11.5% in only 6 months.
Bitcoin Pro w/ Dylan LeClair - FED 96
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, Christian and I sit down with Dylan LeClair, Head of Market Research at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Each week, he and Sam Rule, write nearly daily updates for subscribers, and once a month they release a large bitcoin market report. That is what we are covering for the most part in today’s episode, Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s May 2022 Report.
You can find the slide deck we use for this episode here, or you can see all the charts at the end of this post.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Market CycleBefore we get into the awesome charts brought by Dylan, I want to get an idea of where he sees bitcoin in its market cycle timing. I ask, somewhat facetiously, if we are in a bear market, because we are definitely not in a typical 80-90% drawdown.
Dylan responds by saying we are in a classic bear market, not necessarily a classic bitcoin bear market. He points out that the upswing of this cycle didn’t have the classic parabolic blow-off top we’ve seen previously in bitcoin, as well as there being more technical and fundamental support in the mid-$20k’s up to $30,000, so drawdown pressure will also likely be limited. LeClair also adds that the Average User Cost Basis was hit by the wick to the recent lows. All in all, there is significant support under the price, and it remains to be seen if there is enough bear momentum to break to new lows.
Lastly, on the market cycle timing questions, Dylan points out a very underappreciated market development, that being the collateral type on exchanges has mostly switched from bitcoin in previous cycles, to now being stablecoins like Tether and USDC. In other words, the dominant trading pairs and cash deposits on exchanges have changed from bitcoin to stablecoins. In the past, the most important trading pair for any altcoin was versus BTC, that has changed to being versus a stablecoin like USDT. This is a monumental shift in market dynamics and will likely lead to much more stable prices for bitcoin, because less bitcoin will be forced to liquidate in the hyper-speculative shitcoin bubbles.
Bitcoin Magazine Pro Charts“This is Coinbase spot volume, being the dominant American exchange, and the Perp [perpetual futures] volume aggregated over a bunch of different derivatives exchanges. What we can see is various volume spikes. Historically, when bitcoin is trading hands in that size, signals some sort of market top or bottom, some significant change in market structure.” - Dylan LeClair
The next chart shows the difference in market structure due to stablecoins. Back in the summer of 2021 sell off, Dylan says that 70% of the derivative market was still collateralized by bitcoin, today, it is much much smaller than that. Therefore, we should expect there to be fewer liquidations in bitcoin when shitcoin bubbles pop, and that’s exactly what we see.<
Bitcoin Pro w/ Dylan LeClair - FED 96
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, Christian and I sit down with Dylan LeClair, Head of Market Research at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Each week, he and Sam Rule, write nearly daily updates for subscribers, and once a month they release a large bitcoin market report. That is what we are covering for the most part in today’s episode, Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s May 2022 Report.
You can find the slide deck we use for this episode here, or you can see all the charts at the end of this post.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Market CycleBefore we get into the awesome charts brought by Dylan, I want to get an idea of where he sees bitcoin in its market cycle timing. I ask, somewhat facetiously, if we are in a bear market, because we are definitely not in a typical 80-90% drawdown.
Dylan responds by saying we are in a classic bear market, not necessarily a classic bitcoin bear market. He points out that the upswing of this cycle didn’t have the classic parabolic blow-off top we’ve seen previously in bitcoin, as well as there being more technical and fundamental support in the mid-$20k’s up to $30,000, so drawdown pressure will also likely be limited. LeClair also adds that the Average User Cost Basis was hit by the wick to the recent lows. All in all, there is significant support under the price, and it remains to be seen if there is enough bear momentum to break to new lows.
Lastly, on the market cycle timing questions, Dylan points out a very underappreciated market development, that being the collateral type on exchanges has mostly switched from bitcoin in previous cycles, to now being stablecoins like Tether and USDC. In other words, the dominant trading pairs and cash deposits on exchanges have changed from bitcoin to stablecoins. In the past, the most important trading pair for any altcoin was versus BTC, that has changed to being versus a stablecoin like USDT. This is a monumental shift in market dynamics and will likely lead to much more stable prices for bitcoin, because less bitcoin will be forced to liquidate in the hyper-speculative shitcoin bubbles.
Bitcoin Magazine Pro Charts“This is Coinbase spot volume, being the dominant American exchange, and the Perp [perpetual futures] volume aggregated over a bunch of different derivatives exchanges. What we can see is various volume spikes. Historically, when bitcoin is trading hands in that size, signals some sort of market top or bottom, some significant change in market structure.” - Dylan LeClair
The next chart shows the difference in market structure due to stablecoins. Back in the summer of 2021 sell off, Dylan says that 70% of the derivative market was still collateralized by bitcoin, today, it is much much smaller than that. Therefore, we should expect there to be fewer liquidations in bitcoin when shitcoin bubbles pop, and that’s exactly what we see.<
Macro Chart Week - FED 95
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, we focus on important macro charts. We cover Bitcoin’s chart, currencies like the dollar, the euro, the Hong Kong dollar, and gold, and energy commodities. We don’t have time to get to all the charts I prepared, because the live show has time constraints. I will attempt to get a Part 2 out this week, to cover the rest of my commodity charts, as well as supply chains and shipping costs. You can find the slide deck of charts here.
Other topics covered in today’s episode include Biden and Powell’s meeting yesterday, where I try to flesh out the importance of this Wall Street (Powell) vs Globalists (Biden) showdown; and we get into a couple of things from Davos last week, particularly the Kissinger comments about Ukraine.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
CurrenciesFirst currency up is Bitcoin. I discuss the recent pop in price on Memorial Day in the US, and how it is simultaneous with a growing bullish divergence in the indicators.
However, I also go back in time to roughly one year ago, when there was a very similar situation. In June 2021, there was a bullish divergence in these two indicators and a breakout of a descending wedge. That move was a fake out, cut short by the Grayscale (GBTC) unlock wave in July. The current situation is similar on the chart, but not similar in the fundamentals. I just wanted to point out a previous example where a breakout like this week failed.
I make an effort to dislodge the bitcoin rise = dollar collapse false narrative here. The dollar and bitcoin can rise together due to deflationary pressures pushing people to cash and away from counterparty risk.
Next up is the dollar. On the live stream, I show the following chart and discuss how we could be headed for a new higher range on the dollar. Perhaps, we see another 5-7 years of the DXY in a range of 100-110, kind of like how it jumped into the 90-100 range in 2015.
For many who don’t like the DXY because it is too narrow (Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, and Pound 11.9%), I provide a chart of the trade-weighted dollar that includes 30+ currencies including Yuan and Mexican peso.
In the below chart, we see the same consolidation beginning, but the high that the dollar achieved (excluding the corona crash highs) is a new high. I think this symbolizes a stair step function higher for the trade-weighted dollar as well.
Remember, a strong dollar is the Fed failing and it also provides massive stress to the rest of the world’s economy.
Source: FRED
The Euro is nearly the inverse of the DXY. It also shows a recent breakout, but in this case downward. If the dollar rally is to consolidate before heading higher, the Euro is going to consolidate before heading lower. One thing is for sure, the Euro has broken its two decade support trend line, it’s in big tr
Macro Chart Week - FED 95
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, we focus on important macro charts. We cover Bitcoin’s chart, currencies like the dollar, the euro, the Hong Kong dollar, and gold, and energy commodities. We don’t have time to get to all the charts I prepared, because the live show has time constraints. I will attempt to get a Part 2 out this week, to cover the rest of my commodity charts, as well as supply chains and shipping costs. You can find the slide deck of charts here.
Other topics covered in today’s episode include Biden and Powell’s meeting yesterday, where I try to flesh out the importance of this Wall Street (Powell) vs Globalists (Biden) showdown; and we get into a couple of things from Davos last week, particularly the Kissinger comments about Ukraine.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
CurrenciesFirst currency up is Bitcoin. I discuss the recent pop in price on Memorial Day in the US, and how it is simultaneous with a growing bullish divergence in the indicators.
However, I also go back in time to roughly one year ago, when there was a very similar situation. In June 2021, there was a bullish divergence in these two indicators and a breakout of a descending wedge. That move was a fake out, cut short by the Grayscale (GBTC) unlock wave in July. The current situation is similar on the chart, but not similar in the fundamentals. I just wanted to point out a previous example where a breakout like this week failed.
I make an effort to dislodge the bitcoin rise = dollar collapse false narrative here. The dollar and bitcoin can rise together due to deflationary pressures pushing people to cash and away from counterparty risk.
Next up is the dollar. On the live stream, I show the following chart and discuss how we could be headed for a new higher range on the dollar. Perhaps, we see another 5-7 years of the DXY in a range of 100-110, kind of like how it jumped into the 90-100 range in 2015.
For many who don’t like the DXY because it is too narrow (Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, and Pound 11.9%), I provide a chart of the trade-weighted dollar that includes 30+ currencies including Yuan and Mexican peso.
In the below chart, we see the same consolidation beginning, but the high that the dollar achieved (excluding the corona crash highs) is a new high. I think this symbolizes a stair step function higher for the trade-weighted dollar as well.
Remember, a strong dollar is the Fed failing and it also provides massive stress to the rest of the world’s economy.
Source: FRED
The Euro is nearly the inverse of the DXY. It also shows a recent breakout, but in this case downward. If the dollar rally is to consolidate before heading higher, the Euro is going to consolidate before heading lower. One thing is for sure, the Euro has broken its two decade support trend line, it’s in big tr
History of Davos - FED 94
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, we get interactive with the livestream team, talking about the history of Davos and the World Economic Forum, as well as getting into some Q&A about my Federal Reserve predictions.
This week was a slightly slower news cycle in macro and bitcoin, so I took the opportunity to begin a new series of discussing the history of important international institutions, like central banks, the IMF, and this week the World Economic Forum. The history portion take up about 50% of the show this week, and the rest is the probing Q&A mentioned above.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Beginnings of Davos and the World Economic ForumDavos is the name and place for the yearly meeting of the World Economic Forum. Originally called the European Management Forum, it was founded in 1971 by a business professor in Geneva, the infamous Klaus Schwab. That should be a familiar year to bitcoiners, because it is the same year President Nixon took the US off the remnant of the gold standard.
At first, Davos was a small conference of European businessmen discussing Klaus Schwab’s ideas of “stakeholder capitalism''. Compared to unbridled capitalism, this new stakeholder idea expanded the ethical duty of the corporation from serving customers and shareholders to also serving employees and suppliers in a socially responsible way. Schwab took this idea further down the slippery slope outlining an ethical duty to the community and “society”, as well.
Shareholder capitalism is simply a subtle way to make capitalism more socialist.
In 1987, the European Management Forum changed its name to the World Economic Forum and its yearly meeting to Davos.
Achievements of DavosOne would expect an institution as famous and well-regarded as the World Economic Forum would have many achievements to its name. However, it is a very short list, even after 50 years! It claims a hand in stopping a Turkish/Greek war in 1987, a role in German reunification, and helping to end apartied in South Africa by hosting a handshake between Nelson Mandella and Frederik de Klerk in 1992. And that’s about it. Recently, they have claimed some victories on the environmentalism front, too.
Then what has the WEF been up to all these years? This is where it gets interesting.
In 2004, Klaus Schwab created the Forum of Young Global Leaders. It is a program that graduates roughly 100 rising young leaders from around the world who are destined to high offices, either in government, business or culture. The program boasts 1400 alumni that include Presidents and Prime Ministers, along with some of the wealthiest, most influential people in the world, like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.
These young leaders are indoctrinated into the WEF’s brand of Marxism, which you will commonly hear called “globalism”, the modern incarnation of stakeholder capitalism. You know something is pushing a global Marxist agenda when you hear terms like, “socially responsible”, “global governance”, “climate a
History of Davos - FED 94
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, we get interactive with the livestream team, talking about the history of Davos and the World Economic Forum, as well as getting into some Q&A about my Federal Reserve predictions.
This week was a slightly slower news cycle in macro and bitcoin, so I took the opportunity to begin a new series of discussing the history of important international institutions, like central banks, the IMF, and this week the World Economic Forum. The history portion take up about 50% of the show this week, and the rest is the probing Q&A mentioned above.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Beginnings of Davos and the World Economic ForumDavos is the name and place for the yearly meeting of the World Economic Forum. Originally called the European Management Forum, it was founded in 1971 by a business professor in Geneva, the infamous Klaus Schwab. That should be a familiar year to bitcoiners, because it is the same year President Nixon took the US off the remnant of the gold standard.
At first, Davos was a small conference of European businessmen discussing Klaus Schwab’s ideas of “stakeholder capitalism''. Compared to unbridled capitalism, this new stakeholder idea expanded the ethical duty of the corporation from serving customers and shareholders to also serving employees and suppliers in a socially responsible way. Schwab took this idea further down the slippery slope outlining an ethical duty to the community and “society”, as well.
Shareholder capitalism is simply a subtle way to make capitalism more socialist.
In 1987, the European Management Forum changed its name to the World Economic Forum and its yearly meeting to Davos.
Achievements of DavosOne would expect an institution as famous and well-regarded as the World Economic Forum would have many achievements to its name. However, it is a very short list, even after 50 years! It claims a hand in stopping a Turkish/Greek war in 1987, a role in German reunification, and helping to end apartied in South Africa by hosting a handshake between Nelson Mandella and Frederik de Klerk in 1992. And that’s about it. Recently, they have claimed some victories on the environmentalism front, too.
Then what has the WEF been up to all these years? This is where it gets interesting.
In 2004, Klaus Schwab created the Forum of Young Global Leaders. It is a program that graduates roughly 100 rising young leaders from around the world who are destined to high offices, either in government, business or culture. The program boasts 1400 alumni that include Presidents and Prime Ministers, along with some of the wealthiest, most influential people in the world, like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.
These young leaders are indoctrinated into the WEF’s brand of Marxism, which you will commonly hear called “globalism”, the modern incarnation of stakeholder capitalism. You know something is pushing a global Marxist agenda when you hear terms like, “socially responsible”, “global governance”, “climate a
Maximum Pain for Globalists ft. Tom Luongo - FED 93
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, due to popular demand, I welcome Tom Luongo back on the show! Tom is one of my favorite writers due to his entertaining prose and deeply refreshing insight on global macro, geopolitics, and currency markets. He is also a long-term bitcoiner, discussing it for many years in his writing and podcast.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. In this episode, we start by getting a big picture view from Tom on the global situation, then dive into some specifics about Europe, the US, the Federal Reserve, Ukraine, and much more. We wrap up the show talking about what Tom sees for the US in the short to midterm, so, the next 3 to 24 months. Below, I’ll provide a little more detail on what was said, but this is a MUST LISTEN episode!
The Sick Man at the TableThe first question I ask Tom is, is he as bearish as everyone else? It seems everywhere we look people are screaming about bear markets and collapse, from macro to geopolitics to bitcoin. However, I think this collapse narrative is overdone, especially for the United States. I ask Tom to give us his broad picture of the state of the markets.
He starts in by identifying the sick man at the table, that being Europe. Europe is hit the hardest by the forces that have been unleashed right now, rising commodities prices, rising inflation, loss of confidence in institutions, et cetera. As Europe struggles and begins to cannibalize itself, all that capital in investment portfolios in Europe will eventually have to flow somewhere, and it’ll flow to the United States.
The conflict that has started in Ukraine is on Europe’s doorstep, and specifically on the doorstep of the best economy in Europe over the last decade, Poland. Tom asks rhetorically, “is Warsaw or New York closer to Ukraine?” As investors realize that this new conflict is not going away, and to fight it with economic weapons as they have been, they must destroy their own economies, money will rapidly flee Europe to the US. I’ll add, it will also flow into bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve is SeriousI ask Tom if he thinks the Fed will go through with uber-hawkish rate hikes. His answer eloquently lays out that Powell’s plans to raise rates back in 2017 was interrupted by Covid, and now, Powell is going scorched earth to raise rates to break the back of every other central bank and rival currency.
The reason the Fed will do this according to Tom Luongo is that the Fed, owned by Wall St banks and US monied interests, is trying to wash out the decade of malinvestment that’s built up since the GFC. He also frames it as a fracture in the relationship between US monied interests and the globalists in Europe. We can’t understand the Fed without understanding the Davos crowd’s intent to rule the world or burn it down.
According to Tom, the Federal Reserve will raise rates continually until 2024, to break the back of Davos and the radical globalist/communist objectives. I tend to agree with him, perhaps I wouldn’t put it as colorfully as Tom does, but the globalists are “global communists” and will burn the global economy down before they admit defeat.
Bitcoin and US Fates are IntertwinedThe last part of the episode, I ask Tom about my theory that, what is good for the US economy is good for bitcoin, at this moment in time. A
Maximum Pain for Globalists ft. Tom Luongo - FED 93
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, due to popular demand, I welcome Tom Luongo back on the show! Tom is one of my favorite writers due to his entertaining prose and deeply refreshing insight on global macro, geopolitics, and currency markets. He is also a long-term bitcoiner, discussing it for many years in his writing and podcast.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. In this episode, we start by getting a big picture view from Tom on the global situation, then dive into some specifics about Europe, the US, the Federal Reserve, Ukraine, and much more. We wrap up the show talking about what Tom sees for the US in the short to midterm, so, the next 3 to 24 months. Below, I’ll provide a little more detail on what was said, but this is a MUST LISTEN episode!
The Sick Man at the TableThe first question I ask Tom is, is he as bearish as everyone else? It seems everywhere we look people are screaming about bear markets and collapse, from macro to geopolitics to bitcoin. However, I think this collapse narrative is overdone, especially for the United States. I ask Tom to give us his broad picture of the state of the markets.
He starts in by identifying the sick man at the table, that being Europe. Europe is hit the hardest by the forces that have been unleashed right now, rising commodities prices, rising inflation, loss of confidence in institutions, et cetera. As Europe struggles and begins to cannibalize itself, all that capital in investment portfolios in Europe will eventually have to flow somewhere, and it’ll flow to the United States.
The conflict that has started in Ukraine is on Europe’s doorstep, and specifically on the doorstep of the best economy in Europe over the last decade, Poland. Tom asks rhetorically, “is Warsaw or New York closer to Ukraine?” As investors realize that this new conflict is not going away, and to fight it with economic weapons as they have been, they must destroy their own economies, money will rapidly flee Europe to the US. I’ll add, it will also flow into bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve is SeriousI ask Tom if he thinks the Fed will go through with uber-hawkish rate hikes. His answer eloquently lays out that Powell’s plans to raise rates back in 2017 was interrupted by Covid, and now, Powell is going scorched earth to raise rates to break the back of every other central bank and rival currency.
The reason the Fed will do this according to Tom Luongo is that the Fed, owned by Wall St banks and US monied interests, is trying to wash out the decade of malinvestment that’s built up since the GFC. He also frames it as a fracture in the relationship between US monied interests and the globalists in Europe. We can’t understand the Fed without understanding the Davos crowd’s intent to rule the world or burn it down.
According to Tom, the Federal Reserve will raise rates continually until 2024, to break the back of Davos and the radical globalist/communist objectives. I tend to agree with him, perhaps I wouldn’t put it as colorfully as Tom does, but the globalists are “global communists” and will burn the global economy down before they admit defeat.
Bitcoin and US Fates are IntertwinedThe last part of the episode, I ask Tom about my theory that, what is good for the US economy is good for bitcoin, at this moment in time. A
Market Mayhem and Calling the Bitcoin Bottom - FED 92
