Last Week:

· NFP 517K vs 190K forecast.

· Unemployment 3.5%-->3.4%

· Wage data came in as forecast at 0.3% m/m.

· PMI non-manufacturing data is strongly back above 50.

· Fed raises rated by 25bps on Wed.

· Hawkish but more relaxed.

· Powell talked about the disinflation process.

· Did not validate December projections.

· Offered little push back against the market.

· Opened the door to potential pivot (in case of overshoot).

· Following NFP, terminal rate is pushed back one month, and markets sees 5.25%.

· Employment coming back into focus: will unemployment increase.

· ECB: raised by 50bps and committed to another 50bps in March in statement.

· Intentions are to hike passed March.

· President Lagarde acknowledged more balanced risks to inflation outlook.

· ECB likely more hawkish than Fed.

· BoE: No surprises but unclear guidance.

· Softened communication but didn’t signal pause.

· Comment – may be at the turning point but not necessarily done.

This week:

· Powell: moderated discussion Economic Club of Washington (Tuesday).

· RBA cash rate: 25bps after recent inflation surprise?

· Williams (NY Fed president) interview with Nick Timiraos on Wed.

· UK GDP on Fri.

· China/US relations are strained after US shoots down “spy” balloon.

· Tech Earnings: BP, Disney. Last week Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple.

050 - NFP upside surprise puts the focus squarely on CPI