Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update

Daniel Mahoney joins Sonia Rothwell on this week's podcast, where he casts his eye over some positive recent economic news.

Have house prices bottomed out? Are we out of recession? And has inflation been brought under control?

Listen in to find out.

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Positive noises have been coming from the Bank of England lately in terms of when it will start to cut interest rates. James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney look at the bank's latest rates decision and at other indicators to gauge when we might see rates come down. They also look at how that links to what's happening to mortgage rates.

Plus, they explain why a new ONS rental index suggests that the property market fall may be at an end.

All in under 15 minutes.

With the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting this week, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney look at whether we can expect to see interest rates changing, and ask is that even the most interesting detail to look out for? They consider whether recent economic data could sway the MPC one way or the other.

Plus, a key indicator of health in the housing sector is the level of construction activity. James explains what he's seeing in the numbers and what that shows about where house prices may go.

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On this week's Economic Update podcast with James Sproule and Sonia Rothwell, we hear why the US labour market is a key indicator for where US interest rates will go next - and why that matters to us in the UK.

Plus, how well-received was the Budget and will it, after all, be the last before a general election as many commentators believe?

And James explains how the size of the labour force affects the health of the economy.

All in under 15 minutes.

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The biggest economic story in town this week is what's expected to be the final UK Budget statement before the General Election.

Sonia Rothwell and Daniel Mahoney talk about the Chancellor's options and why they're not as optimal as they were in January.

And in our regular property segment, Dan digs into the growing difference between how investible primary and secondary commercial property is - and it doesn't always reflect the asset class.

All in under 15 minutes.

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On this week's podcast, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney consider whether recent data on UK borrowing gives Chancellor Jeremy Hunt more options in next week's Budget.

Plus, with the economy also fuelled by confidence, James and Dan dig into the latest business confidence figures - do they point to better days ahead?

And in our regular property segment, James shares why he's changed our forecast for how far the house price correction has to go.

Catch up in under 15 minutes.

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Last week there was a glut of data on the health of the UK economy, but luckily James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney are on hand to put it all into context.

Join us to hear:

🔹 What's behind the UK's dip into recession

🔹 Why inflation didn't increase as expected

🔹 Plus what is happening to commercial property yields?

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Our economics team is in for a busy week as inflation, GDP and employment and earnings figures all arrive in in-boxes.

Join James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney as they look at what we might see and what it might say about the UK economy and the path of interest rates. Plus, an update on how the situation in the Red Sea region is affecting supply chains.

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It's been a significant week for watchers of global interest rates so on this episode of the podcast, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney unpick the Bank of England's split decision (the first decision of 2024) on interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's closely-watched commentary on the path for US interest rates. Also, what does all of this mean for the UK economy?

Find out in under 15 minutes.

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Inflation surprised analysts and markets by increasing to 4%. Daniel Mahoney tells James Sproule how the news affected the outlook for interest rate cuts.

Plus as geopolitical tensions continue in the Red Sea, Daniel explains how and why the uncertainty will affect energy prices in the UK and Europe and ultimately, inflation.

Finally the team considers whether latest figures on the labour market offer some much-needed economic good news.

All in under 15 minutes.

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Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea are in focus on this week's podcast as James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney look at how drone strikes and military action in the area are affecting global trade.

Plus: it seems a long time since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, could some parts of the economy be back to a pre-COVID normal?

And with recent shocks to supply chains, James considers if the long-speculated arrival of so-called "onshoring" will finally happen.

All in under 15 minutes.

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Happy New Year to all of our listeners and a special welcome to our new subscribers!

On this week's Economic Update, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney take a pulse check on interest rates and their likely direction across 2024.

Plus, can we take heart from an uptick in house prices as revealed by Halifax recently or is there more to the numbers? And James digs into some interesting data on property yields.

You can listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

On our final podcast of 2023, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney reflect on how the economy looks at the end of another turbulent year. Have interest rate decisions matched expectations? Are the major central banks in lockstep on rate cuts?

And what has surprised James and Dan in the economic world in the past year?

All in under 15 minutes.

We're back in 2024, meantime we wish all of our listeners and subscribers a Merry Christmas and peaceful new year.

On our penultimate podcast of 2023, James Sproule tells Daniel Mahoney why the Bank of England's financial stability report has some positive news to take us into the new year.

Plus we share some positive news on how deep we think the correction in house prices will be.

All in under 15 minutes.

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Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule discuss a mixed bag of economic news. The Bank of England's money and credit report showed a suggestion of positive news with mortgage approvals slightly up, but Dan warns against reading too much into the increase. Plus, as retailers cross their fingers for an economic boost from the December shopping rush, Dan and James ask if they have cause to be optimistic.

We love to hear what you think of the podcast, so please rate and review us wherever you're listening.

On episode 121 of the podcast, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney unpick the key parts of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement. They also take a health check on consumer and business confidence following the latest figures.

Finally, the weather can be a factor in how well the economy is doing. James explains how 2023's damp meteorological statistics are weighing on the UK economy.

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This week on the podcast, James Sproule explains why there's more than meets the eye to the UK's latest inflation figures. He also discusses the main economic takeaways from Rishi Sunak's pre-Autumn statement speech, and highlights a few things to look out for when the Chancellor speaks on Wednesday.

And to end, James has some good news about AI. Listen in to find out more.

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Sonia Rothwell joins Handelsbanken's UK chief economist James Sproule to discuss what might happen to interest rates this week as the Bank of England's monetary policy committee meets.

Plus what data on sales and mortgage approvals says about the health of the housing sector, and as we're in Hallowe'en season, James shares what he thinks is spooking the UK economy.

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Bill Clinton's political adviser James Carville famously wisecracked he'd like to be reincarnated as the bond market, because that way "You can intimidate everybody". Recently there have been concerns that an old foe is lurking in the bond markets - the bond vigilante.

But who are bond vigilantes? What do they do? And why are they giving market watchers jitters?

Charlie Neil and Cameron Willard from our Capital Markets team join Daniel Mahoney to discuss the power that bond investors have over markets and why.

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Dan Mahoney and James Sproule take a look at the latest numbers painting a picture of UK economic performance. Plus, it's not a hot new music trend, so why should we care about Z-POP? James explains.

And what includes, cut undersea cables, war, and natural disasters but not high inflation? James takes a look at the complicated world of measuring risk.

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On our weekly podcast with Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule. Following a packed week for economic data, our UK Chief Economist James Sproule explains why we're saying interest rates have peaked. Plus, what's the truth about the health of the buy-to-let market? Has there really been a huge exodus of landlords? James shares his thinking.

Catch up with the economics news you need to know - in under 15 minutes (just).

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On the podcast this week, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney discuss what contributed to disappointing July GDP figures. They also look into data on the number of businesses starts and insolvencies and what the figures say about the UK economy.

And one year on from Kwasi Kwarteng's so-called "mini-budget" James and Dan look at the economic legacy of a plan which curtailed Liz Truss' tenancy in Downing Street.

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James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney are back to bring you up to date with news and analysis on the housing market and wider UK economy.

This week, they look at the surprise significant upwards revision for UK growth and discuss whether positive news can have an impact on consumer confidence.

Plus, as the UK housing sector battles headwinds from high interest rates, James looks at what's happening in the prime section of the market.

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Barely two years ago, ultra-low interest rates were the norm for the UK economy. But as Daniel Mahoney, Charlie Neil and Tom Barker remind us, a lot has happened since then.

In a final, extended episode of the Summer, the team explains how key events - the lifting of Covid restrictions, the Ukraine invasion, and the mini-Budget - disrupted the UK and global economies, and share whether they think we will avoid recession as a result.

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The UK's latest inflation figures are due out this week and are being more closely watched than ever. On this edition of Economic Update, Sonia Rothwell and Daniel Mahoney chat about what the markets expect to see.

Plus Sonia and Dan talk about the impact financial conditions are having on UK deposit activity.

And as organisations continue to weigh the pros and cons of WFH, Dan talks about some interesting new research which dives into the reality of the trend.

All in under 15 minutes.

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Working from home research data site:

https://wfhresearch.com/

In a packed podcast this week: how does the Bank of England know what consumers really think of the outlook for inflation? James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney explain, and reveal what people are thinking. Plus, as the UK's debt to GDP ratio passes 100%, James sets out why the BoE's balance sheet will add to further debt burdens. And finally, as the housing market continues to battle challenging times, what impact is that having on the construction sector? Catch up in under 15 minutes. Rate and subscribe wherever you're listening. Reports mentioned in this episode Read our analysis of the impact of quantitative tightening: https://reonapi.researchonline.se/f/MiMLlKT2lUKNOfKGYqzGMg2

At its recent monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England unexpectedly raised interest rates by 0.5%, signalling that it's taking a more aggressive approach towards fighting inflation. On this week's Economic Update with James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney, we look at the impact the battle to contain inflation is having on consumers, house prices and the wider economy. And the team manages to do it in under 15 minutes.

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On this week's international edition of Economic Update, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney are in Sweden where they speak to Helena Bornevall, one of our senior economists, about the challenges facing Sweden's property market and how it compares to the UK.

Catch up in under 15 minutes.

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Join us for an in-depth, two-part series as Handelsbanken UK Chief Economist James Sproule and Lucian Cook, Head of UK Residential Research at Savills speak to Sonia Rothwell, Handelsbanken's UK External Communications Manager about the UK property market.

In part 1 we focus on the health of the UK property market. We begin with the wild-ride the sector has been through in recent times. James and Lucian give their views on where the market is at present, which parts of the country have been more resilient to the turbulence, and whether they think it likely that we will see a repeat of the problems we saw during the last property crash.

In part 2, our experts will look at buy to let, as well as what they think will happen to the market as a whole in the next year.

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💥 This week's Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update with Sonia Rothwell and James Sproule features all you need to know about why we have raised our expectations for interest rates. Plus James explains what he's learned from our pulse check on commercial property. And although it's a quiet week on the data release front, he talks about some of the longer term trends we're tracking such as migration and property ownership.

All in under 15 minutes.

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Read more of our insights into commercial property: "Commercial property - the new reality" https://www.researchonline.se/document/V6djs6po4kCaSehczzSYuw2

For the 100th edition of Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update with James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney.

Economists are expecting inflation to fall to 8.2% this week - our chief economist James Sproule explains why he has high hopes for a lower level.

Plus, consumers are not as confident as they should be about the UK economy - James and Daniel discuss why they might have cause to be more optimistic.

And we turn the spotlight to the prime property sector which James has been looking into this week.

All in under 15 minutes.

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James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney give their thoughts on why the UK's growth figures are looking sickly. Plus, they explain what they think are the prospects for the UK's commercial property sector.

Listen and subscribe to Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update wherever you get your podcasts.

Sarah Rigby and Cameron Willard from Handelsbanken's markets team join Daniel Mahoney to look behind the scenes at the events and data shaping recent market moves.

The team explains what's happening to sterling rates compared to key currencies, and shares where markets think energy prices and interest rates could go next.

All in under 20 minutes.

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This week on Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update, Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule sift through the glut of recent data releases including trends in retail sales, and talk about why Handelsbanken has revised its view of where interest rate rises will peak. Plus, they look into the details of what's happening in the UK's housing rental sector - all in under 15 minutes.

Please listen rate and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

On this week's podcast, UK Chief Economist James Sproule and UK Economist Daniel Mahoney are picking over the most recent GDP figures which showed the economy flatlined.

And Daniel explains why the way we measure price changes has a significant influence on the rate of inflation.

Finally, how are commercial and residential property values performing - are there signs that the correction in the commercial sector is bottoming out?

UK Chief Economist James Sproule is asking the questions this week.

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On this week's Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update, Sonia Rothwell and Daniel Mahoney celebrate the arrival of the new tax year with a rundown of the changes you need to know about. And two recent housing surveys have shown a different direction of travel for house prices in the UK. Dan explains why. And finally, the team will look ahead to some important data releases - all in under 15 minutes.

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Handelsbanken UK economist Daniel Mahoney joins Sonia Rothwell for our weekly look into the economics stories you need to know about.

After a busy few weeks for global banking news, the team returns to the topic of the UK economy. Recent data shows that the UK is likely to avoid a recession in 2023 despite pessimistic forecasts last year, so why the change? Also, Dan explains how are interest rates affecting domestic and business savings levels. And on that note, why do different people experience inflation rates that are different to the one we see in headlines? And Dan shares why we might soon be hearing more about Japan's economy.

All in under 15 minutes.

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On this week's podcast, Handelsbanken's UK Chief Economist James Sproule and UK Economist Daniel Mahoney unravel the week's key economics news.

First, James looks into the latest events in the unsettled banking sector following Credit Suisse's takeover by Swiss rival UBS. Plus, what did the team make of the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates and what do they think will happen to the rate of inflation as a result?

Find out in under 15 minutes.

Why not join hundreds of others and subscribe to the Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update podcast wherever you're listening?

Join Sonia Rothwell and Handelsbanken's UK economist Daniel Mahoney as they explain what's happening in the global banking system at the moment. They also look at what Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced in his Spring Budget, and amid a price correction in the commercial property sector, Dan shares his research into prospects for this part of the economy. All in under 15 minutes. Please rate and subscribe to Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update wherever you're listening.

*This episode was recorded at 9am on Monday 20 March

Our UK economics team of James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney explain the key economic stories you need to know.

On this week's podcast, the team looks at what the Bank of England's latest money and credit data shows, plus they examine two of the factors affecting house prices: availability and affordability. 

Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.