The FarrCast : Wealth Strategies

The FarrCast : Wealth Strategies

By Michael Farr
Welcome to the FarrCast, hosted by Michael Farr, president and CEO of Washington DC wealth management firm, Farr, Miller & Washington. The FarrCast brings you up to date news from Washington, Wall St., and Main St., and discusses what it means for you and your future investments. Each week Michael will have guests with insights into economics, policy, personal finance, and the intersections between them all. Listen in not just for analysis of what has happened, but for the forecast of where the markets are going.
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Not a Grain, But a Great Wall of Salt
These are difficult times and what we don't know, it's clear, is more than we do know. But on The FarrCast we are here to shed a little more insight, gain a little more knowledge, and help you navigate through the turmoil. This week Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio, fan favorite and longtime trader from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Dan Mahaffee helps us understand the policy evolution in Washington, and Stephanie Link, one of the smartest voices from CNBC gives her thoughts on how to find value, and assess risk. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
38:39
April 1, 2020
Don't Bet Against America
We take a wider look on the FarrCast this week on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Michael welcomes experts Dr. Nancy Aburto, reporting from Rome as Italy enters its third week of lockdown, and Judy Kunisch of Yale University on the stress the US healthcare system is facing. Their on the ground experience gives us some notion of what is to come.  Turning to Washington, Michael and Senior Political Correspondent Dan Mahaffee are joined by audience favorite, Lester Munson. The third relief package, this one totaling two trillion dollars, is making its way through Congress.  Les makes the case that another package will come -- and why it is needed. Giving you insight into the changing social, political, market, and economic conditions that impact the investing environment, it's The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
50:30
March 25, 2020
Not Without Consequences
Mark Hamrick, one of the most experienced financial journalists in the country joins us this week. For all of the ups and down he and Michael Farr have seen over the years, from the crash of 1987 to the Great Recession and all points in between, there has been nothing quite like what we've seen in the past few weeks. The last time Mark was on was on, the markets were at all time highs, and talk of possibility of recession caused by coronavirus was laughed at -- what a different world we live in six weeks later. But first -- Michael gives insight into looking through the numbers; for all of the turmoil, the economy and the markets will build new lows and eventually climb to new highs. Investors must have discipline, and above all, patience. And regular Dan Mahaffee calls in to share his thoughts on the changes in politics the pandemic has brought, and gives his insight into the Odd Couple, and new axis of power in DC, Steven Mnuchin and Nancy Pelosi.  Join us as we go beyond the headlines on Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's the FarrCast!
55:39
March 18, 2020
Wrap Yourself in Chaos & Wait for the Fog to Clear
US markets have officially entered a bear market, and Michael Farr is with you on the FarrCast to help you navigate through it. This week, Michael talks about the importance of looking through the numbers and coping with unknowable unknowns.  Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion on the government's response to the coronavirus crisis, and the possibility of further fiscal relief and stimulus.  For our third segment, we have the great Robert Frick, Chief Economist of Navy Federal Credit Union, and an expert on behavioral finance. He gives us sound advice on staying the course for the long term. The coronavirus may impact the markets, but The FarrCast comes to you from a virtual studio to bring you information to help you through the chaos.  It's The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
47:30
March 12, 2020
Air Cover for Normalcy
Markets swoon! Coronavirus spreads! Fed slashes rates! Ten-year note yields fall below one-percent! In times of uncertainty, knowledge is the best weapon, and we have an information packed FarrCast for you this week. First up, Jim Iuorio checks in with us and actually makes a bull case for the markets from here -- but says that even while he thinks that's likely, a recession can't be ruled out. Dan Mahaffee joins with news from DC and the campaign trail. Joe Biden's political career has risen from the grave, but he's not ready for sainthood yet. In the third segment, Michael Farr welcomes special guest, Dr. Jay Bryson, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo investments. Jay explains what the changes from the Fed mean for the economy, and what to look for moving forward. There is a lot of uncertainty in the headlines -- listen to the FarrCast to reduce your uncertainty. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
52:52
March 4, 2020
This Is Not a Time to Be a Hero
The US markets suffer their worst two day loss in five years and The FarrCast is here to help you make sense of it! Michael Farr talks about the broader economic implications of the coronavirus epidemic.  The market is beginning a repricing based on the impacts of trade and supply chains. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about the latest developments in the presidential race, and how the markets may react, and the races react to the market. This week's special guest is Jack Bouroudjian. He has a salient warning for investors -- we don't know how bad the impacts of the epidemic can be. It might not be much -- but we might lose a couple of quarters of growth, and the market implications are significant. 
45:38
February 26, 2020
Leopards Don't Have Stripes
Markets are at all time highs and no one seems worried. That worries Michael Farr. He shares the potential headwinds he's seeing, but while the music is playing, we keep dancing (but stay close to your chair!) Dan Mahaffee joins Michael to talk about the New Hampshire results, and the increasingly possibility of a brokered convention this year for the Democrats. Journalist Mark Hamrick is with us for the third segment and talks about his concerns over the markets' reaction to Coronavirus, and why the Fed won't bail us out every time something bad happens. (It's not because they don't want to!) It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
49:18
February 12, 2020
Are Markets Scared of Nothing?
Coronavirus, economic slowdown of the world's second largest economy, disruptions in the bond markets, political chaos, Brexit, impeachment . . . and markets keep rising! On this week's FarrCast Michael talks with Jim Iuorio on what Wall Street is looking at -- and the difference between politics and assessment of policy. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk Washington and The World as we face the end of the impeachment saga, and what the disaster in Iowa means moving forward.  Coming to with experts and insiders to help you navigate Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast! Michael Farr will be appearing at the University of Delaware Lerner College of Business' Economic Forecast this coming Monday at 3:00pm.  Michael will appear alongside Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. Tickets for the event are sold out, but it will be streamed live on the Lerner College Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/UDLerner/ and at this link https://sites.udel.edu/udlive/star-tower-audion-2-2/ starting at 3 PM on Monday, February 10.
37:15
February 5, 2020
A Three Airplane Week Isn't Too Bad
And airplanes are in the headlines today, as air travel to and from China is being cut. Michael says while the markets may have shaken off the first of the Coronavirus jitters, there is more to the story to come. Dan Mahaffee joins us to talk impeachment, China, and the latest headline from Harvard. For the third segment, we are always grateful when Greg Valliere can join us. Greg's insights into Washington -- and what the headlines mean for the markets -- is second to none. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World. You can subscribe to Greg Valliere's daily Capitol Notes at perspectives.agf.com/subscribe
47:59
January 29, 2020
I'm Accustomed to Turmoil
And on the FarrCast we help navigate the turmoil for you! This week Coronavirus is in the news and Asian markets are shaky. Michael begins with guest Dr. Nadia Eltaki, Director of Clinical Operation of the Emergency Department at Sibley Memorial Hospital. Dr. Eltaki walks us through what we know about Coronavirus, and the procedures in place to keep it under control if it comes to the US. We then talk with our resident China expert Dan Mahaffee on the impact on Chinese society, and special guest Douglas Steenland, who was President of Northwest Airlines during the SARS outbreak. In the third segment, Michael has a wide ranging discussion with Doug, who is now Chairman of the Board at AIG. He led the rescue team that took steered the company from its bailout to raising the cash to repay the government for the bailout in three years -- with interest. His insight into the current state of the economy is something you won't want to miss! It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
49:19
January 23, 2020
The Ides of January Are Upon Us
. . . and for all of the risks out there -- the economy and markets are pretty good. This week Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio to talk markets to explain his bullish call on the markets. Dan Mahaffee and special guest Lester Munson are in studio to beyond the headlines: Iran, Phase One, Iraq, Impeachment, Debates, and now breaking news from Russia. Where are the threats? The opportunities?  Listen to The FarrCast as Michael Farr brings you experts and insiders to help you navigate Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
50:46
January 15, 2020
Iran Threat; Suleimani's Death Explained
It's an interesting start to the New Year in geo-politics -- and the markets are jittery.  What comes next in Iran? And what does it mean for the investor? Michael Farr welcomes our political expert Dan Mahaffee to explain the State of Play in the Persian Gulf and what the potential paths forward are. It's a special edition of The FarrCast to help cut through the headlines to what we know, and don't know, and the impact on the investing landscape.
22:37
January 6, 2020
The Year End All-Star Review!
The US markets have posted a stellar year, and on the FarrCast we have had a stellar lineup of guests. We've talked to some of our top guests to get their thoughts on 2020. No one can know the future -- but these are the experts' experts and their foresight can help you navigate the year ahead! Featuring: Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Board of Trade, Mona Mahajan, US Strategist, AllianzGI, Martin Barnes, Chief Economist of BCA Research, Jay Bryson, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo, Steve Weiss from CNBC, Neil Dwane, Chief Global Strategist of AllianzGI, Jack Bouroudjian of UCX, and of course, Michael Farr, President and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington. Take the FarrCast with you on the New Year's Holiday, and be prepared for what the New Year brings!
1:21:57
December 26, 2019
Michael Farr's Top Ten for 2020!
In the first of our year-end specials, Michael Farr shares with you his Top Ten for 2020! Each year, Michael selects a list of stocks that he personally purchases with the intention of holding for one year. He invests an equal dollar amount in each position, then re-invests the following year in the new list. This week, Michael shares the stocks that make the list for 2020, and a bit about the investment thesis and outlook for each. A special reminder for the Top Ten List: The FarrCast is for information purposes only and any mention of a security should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. The listener should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable, or the appropriateness of these specific security for a specific portfolio. Before you make any investment decision, we strongly recommend you consult with a financial professional to determine what may be best for your individual needs and your goals. If we can be of assistance at Farr, Miller & Washington, please contact hjennings@farrmiller.com and I will put you in touch with one of our professionals who will be glad to help.
28:12
December 21, 2019
The Virtues of Slow & Steady -- Martin Barnes of BCA Research
Enjoy this segment of The FarrCast recorded December 10, 2019. Martin Barnes joins Michael Farr and discusses the economic outlook for 2020. There is a reason Martin is considered one of the people that make modern investment.
18:34
December 13, 2019
As We Get Older, It Gets Harder to Run Fast
This week, we welcome the great Martin Barnes, Chief Economist from BCA Research. Martin is absolutely one of the go-to experts on the economy and markets, and he shares his outlook. There are things he's concerned about in the long term, but for now, "the path of least resistance is up." Plus, Dan Mahaffee on the latest on impeachment -- and the Congress and President actually getting some work done! Michael Farr shares his thoughts on the markets as we come into the year end.  It's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
50:53
December 12, 2019
It's What's Called a 'Win-Win' (Not Something We Hear Much About in this Town Anymore . . .)
But you're always a winner when you listen to The FarrCast! It's a great show today with special guest Chief Economist from Wells Fargo, Dr. Jay Bryson. Jay is one of the smartest people in the investment industry and he shares his thoughts on the economy (slow growth beats no growth), recession (nothing wildly out of balance to cause one in the foreseeable future) and more! But first, Jim Iuorio checks in from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He's still bullish, but reminds everyone to keep an eye on risk. Complacency is never a problem -- until it is. And political analyst Dan Mahaffee calls in with the latest from the Hill, NATO, and the shakeout of the Democratic primary contenders. Coming to every week with insight beyond the headlines, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
52:39
December 5, 2019
Is It Lucy and the Football Again?
We are coming close to the end of the year and the markets inch upwards into record territory. Michael talks about risk -- and how complacency can add risk to a portfolio in ways that aren't always obvious. Dan Mahaffee joins for the latest on China and an election update. And special guest Mark Hamrick helps put everything in DC and geo-politics in the big picture -- and what it bodes for 2020. Always bringing you a look beyond the headlines, it's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
48:01
November 20, 2019
Well, It's Good Theater Anyway
Markets at new highs, bi-partisan co-operation at new lows, and The FarrCast is here to help make sense of it all! Join Michael Farr and guests Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress and Greg Valliere of AGF Investments. All eyes are on Washington, but does impeachment make a difference to the markets? Probably not, but other things in DC happening outside of the spotlight have implications for Wall Street -- and Main Street. Listen to The FarrCast and go beyond the headlines. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World. To subscribe to Greg Valliere's daily update Capitol Insights, go to: https://www.agf.com/ca/en/resources/email-subscription/index.jsp
43:53
November 13, 2019
Easy Money Makes a Comeback! Bouroudjian Sees Explosive Growth Beyond the Current Highs
The markets are climbing a wall of worry and Michael Farr talks to the experts' experts on the path from here. Jim Iuorio says the cash on the sidelines is protection against a prolonged downside, and he outlines the Fed's dilemma. Dan Mahaffee joins for a look inside the Beltway and notes President Trump doesn't pivot, which creates political headwinds -- but could contain a boost for the market. And audience favorite Jack Bouroudjian joins for his thoughts. Last year he said the easy money was done, but in December as markets approached lows, he made a bullish call on the "buying opportunity of the decade." Jack outlines his worries on the drift to extremism, and potential political turbulence that could impact markets and the economy. But in the medium-term he says "capex is a coiled spring" and that the Easy Money is starting now -- and he makes a startling call for market highs of 3500 in the coming months. Go beyond the headlines with The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
51:04
November 6, 2019
FarrCast Update -- Uncle Jay Says This Is the LAST Piece of Candy
Washington woke up groggy and late this morning but we promised a reaction to the Fed and the FarrCast delivers! (Even if our scheduled guest emailed last night to say there was no way they could come in to the studio after game seven.) The Fed has said they are stepping to the sidelines. What does it mean for markets? Michael gives his thoughts as the "mid-cycle correction" is complete.
07:10
October 31, 2019
A Bi-Partisan Marshmallow Failure
Markets reached all-time highs this week but there is still cash on the sidelines. The initial GDP read for the third quarter was released this morning and it's a little better than feared. Meanwhile the investing world awaits the latest from the Fed. It's a special pre-Fed FarrCast this week as Michael Farr breaks down why the economy is ok -- and while it's difficult finding value, ok is still ok. Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion on conservatism in the age of Trump, and the latest on impeachment. Politics shape policy, and Dan and Michael look at how the shaping of those policies might play out in the economy. Plus, we share a couple of laughs on Harry Farr's birthday, four year olds and marshmallows, and Southern Fried Statism. It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
31:46
October 30, 2019
Is It Brexit Yet?
There is a Brexit deal -- but does that really mean anything? Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about some of the economic implications of the move forward (or back) of the UK's divorce from the EU.   What does it mean to be a Republican? What does it mean to be a Democrat? And what do the changing faces of the parties mean for the economy? Is anyone serious about the direction of the country? Lester Munson, a longtime Capitol Hill staffer joins Michael and Dan for a dive beyond the headlines. Plus, a catch up on the markets and more! It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
45:19
October 23, 2019
Getting All Dolled Up
It's the beginning of earnings season and Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari to talk about what the market sentiment is, and how the investor needs to think about the sudden moves that the computerized trading produces. It's been quite a week in DC, and Dan Mahaffee helps break it down, and reminds us that when the ground shifts beneath the Presidency, it moves quickly. Finally, Michael welcomes special guest Stephanie Link of TIAA/Nuveen. Stephanie talks about what she is looking for in earnings season, and that the trade detente is meaningful for the markets -- things might be getting a little better, but they are at least less bad. It's hard to buy low and sell high, but Stephanie and Michael talk not just about stocks they like, but why they like them. Always going beyond the headlines to give you a deeper understanding of the markets, the economy, and the broader world, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World. For more information on Headstrong, the charity Kenny Polcari spoke of, go to www.getheadstrong.org
50:46
October 15, 2019
Be Careful for Landsharks
Turmoil in Washington, gyrations in the market, and uncertainty in world -- the FarrCast is here to make some sense of it all! Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari for a talk on markets, a detour into taxation and how it impacts growth, and the forecast ahead. Dan Mahaffee calls in from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress -- he's had a bit to study lately. He gives his insight into how the China "deal" gets smaller by the day. And special guest Robert Frick from Navy Federal Credit Union joins for wide ranging discussion on interest rates, the job markets, and the limits of supply side hammers for demand side nails. (Plus a Samuel Beckett reference!) It's the FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
49:26
October 8, 2019
Where Did I Leave My Pitchfork?
The end of the quarter sees the markets end up about where they've started -- but the truth is we've had a pretty good year in nine months. Consumer optimism still holds sway. Michael Farr welcomes regular political analyst Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress and William Reinsch from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dan breaks down the week in politics and Bill gives a big picture look at the China conundrum. He's sat across the table with Chinese negotiators in his career, and says while everyone agrees on the diagnosis, the prescription for the problem is not as clear. For a deeper understanding of the forces shaping our world, listen to the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
44:28
October 1, 2019
Was There Anything in the News This Week?
Boy was there! Michael Farr talks with Dan Mahaffee to break down the President's approach to Ukraine, the opening of impeachment hearings, and the potential political fallout. Our special guest this week is Heather Long of the Washington Post, the top journalist covering the Federal Reserve in the country and she shares her insights on the decision making engine of the Fed, and thoughts on what comes next.  BUT FIRST! What's repo, and why does it sound scary when they talk about it? Andy Mathes helps Michael break down the credit crunch in the repo markets, why it matters, and how the Fed used their tools to deal with it. Plus -- how to invest in bonds in the low-interest rate universe. Always bringing you insights from experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
49:27
September 25, 2019
Looking Behind When They Should Be Looking Ahead
Lots of nervousness in the news: Strike at GM, attacks in Saudi Arabia, Fed meeting starting, all the while Brexit and China trade still loom. Don't be nervous -- listen to The FarrCast! In this week's podcast, Michael welcomes regular political analyst Dan Mahaffee and long-time investor and blogger, Haven Pell to the show. Dan gives an overview of what we know now about the Saudi attacks -- and that a military response is inevitable. A discussion with Haven Pell on the central banks takes us to questions of leadership. Are politicians of all stripes becoming more cheerleader than coach? Always bringing you insight into what is happening in the world and what shapes our economy -- it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World. For a daily summary of markets, headlines, commodities, and futures before the markets open, subscribe to The FarrCast Three Minute Morning Brief. Each Friday, Dan Mahaffee and The Center for the Study of The Presidency and Congress writes a summary of the week's news from a Washington insider perspective. To read Dan's (and his colleagues) work, go to: https://www.thepresidency.org/cspc-weekly-news-roundup  Thanks to special guest, Haven Pell for appearing on the FarrCast. His new blog is at www.pundificator.com .
40:16
September 17, 2019
Are We There Yet?
The FarrCast is back for Season Three! Michael tells us a story of what happened over the summer, and where the markets stand. Dan Mahaffee and Les Munson join for a look at Washington and The World, and what may be coming next.   Every week the FarrCast brings you experts and insiders for a view of the economic landscape and the politics and policies that shape it. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
42:21
September 10, 2019
Markets in Turmoil -- Investors Shouldn't Be
The markets are moving through a summer swoon, and Michael shares his thoughts on what investors should do.  And most importantly -- shouldn't do. It's a summer special FarrFlash -- cool heads are needed in hot times.
15:30
August 7, 2019
FarrFlash -- Your Summer Update from The FarrCast
It may be our summer hiatus, but we are bringing you weekly updates from Wall Street, Washington, and The World.  Join Michael Farr as he gives his insight into this week's markets movements.  We've backed down from the highs, but this is still an expensive market -- but you can still find value.  In Washington, the debt ceiling negotiations have begun and the Fed convenes in ten days. Moving on to The World, the tensions in Iran don't seem any closer to resolving. Michael Farr shares his reflections on the week -- because even though it's summer, the markets don't go to the beach.
15:01
July 19, 2019
This Isn’t Going to Turn into Groundhog Day Is It?
It’s a holiday week, but there’s too much going on for the FarrCast to start our summer break just yet! Michael starts with a discussion on the markets with Jim Iuorio. We are at record highs, but there could be danger if we break away from fundamentals. Jim reminds us there is no sure way to time the market – don’t be greedy and rebalance your risk, but remember the markets can stay irrational. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee calls in for a two segments – with the events of the last week there is too much for just one! At the G20, trade negotiations got back on track, but nothing is really any closer to resolution. Dan says we are starting the cycle of negotiations again, but there is too much of a gap between China and the US. The markets are happy for now things are getting worse but the impasse over economic structure, technology transfer, and state control remain. In the third segment, Dan talks about the other big event of the weekend, the President setting foot in North Korea. The event has significant symbolic ramifications that could evolve into very concrete problems. The Iranians may be learning lessons from North Korea that we’d rather not teach. Is there an off-ramp for the Iranians in their confrontation with the US? Bringing you conversations with experts and insiders on the issues that shape our world, it’s The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
47:14
July 2, 2019
Stephanie Link/TIAA: No Recession in Sight; Ned Davis: Don't Make the BIG Mistake
Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link to the FarrCast. She reminds us, you can't get obsessed with the day to day and as a long term investor you have to look at the underlying health of the economy. Interest rates are low and employment is strong, so while the growth is slowing. There are so many moving parts, the narrative is always changing, so look for quality.  Dan Mahaffee joins us remotely after a first hand exploration of the struggles of infrastructure on the East Coast. The Iranian situation has seen a climb-down from the President on military retaliation, but a new series of sanctions targeting the shadow economy of the Iranian hierarchy. Dan walks us through the dynamics in Iran -- and how the economic pain in Iran has served to turn some of the rural populace towards the clerics, not away. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Ned Davis, founder of Ned Davis Research -- one of the greats of the business. Ned begins by telling us from his study of crisis events -- news may cause market turmoil but it's usually short-term. It's important to watch fundamentals and ignore the noise. Ned shares his wisdom and insight from his objective, data-driven research. He's cautious, but still thinks the markets have room to run. Every time is different, and Ned tells us what he's watching.
49:37
June 26, 2019
The Fed’s Wrong, No China Deal, and Stupid Healthcare Expenses
We’ve got another new FarrCast for you tonight! The markets surged today and we are within 1% of all-time highs. The situation is so desperate that the markets need the Fed to step in to prop the markets up. Well, that doesn’t make sense when you say it out loud, but Michael does his best to explain that what the markets want might not be what the economy needs. Dan Mahaffee joins us to explain the third rail of Beijing politics. It’s been a remarkable week in Hong Kong, and the situation has ramifications beyond the port, and indeed beyond China as well. Our special guest tonight is Richard Thompson, one of the leading experts on pharmaceutical policy in the US. He begins by explaining how the trade fight impacts drug prices (it does!) Pharma regulation is a tangled web and is littered with policies that had unintended consequences both for medicine and for the economy. Dick helps to untangle and give us a clearer picture of the issues that impact the economy, the markets, your wallet, and everyone’s health.
53:36
June 19, 2019
Powell Is Playing for the Record Books Now
The markets roared up this week, but Michael is worried the markets might be a little too ebullient and has talked itself into thinking a Fed cut is coming. And perhaps Chair Powell gave some fuel on that fire. Michael says that pulling the trigger and lowering rates too soon might cause the kind of imbalances that can threaten the bull market. Dan Mahaffee joins for the second segment for a wide ranging discussion on the latest from China, the White House, and Capital Hill, and gives us a quick preview of the G20 meeting. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Robert Frick, Corporate Economist from Navy Federal Credit Union, the largest credit union in the country. With eight million members at Navy, Bob is an advocate for their jobs, and is always looking at the labor markets. Listen his for his thoughts on the slow down in job creation numbers -- concerned, perhaps, but its still a strong economy. Coming to you every week with insights from experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street, and The World.
44:27
June 12, 2019
It’s Like Caddyshack for the Markets
It’s been a tumultuous week on Wall Street, Washington, and in the World, and the FarrCast is here to try and bring a little insight. We begin with Jim Iuorio from the CME, and he says that it looks like the Fed has the markets back – whether you agree with it or not, it’s a good time to be in equities. But Jim cautions – sometimes selling begets selling, even if there is no real story why. And he shares his “Costanza Theory” on trading. Dan Mahaffee walks us through the latest tariff tantrum. For the moment, Stephen Miller is outpunching everyone in the White House. The President sees himself as an innovator and thinking outside of the box, but it is threatening his economic success, and rural America is running out of patience. Les Munson joins for the third segment with his quarter of a century of experience on Capital Hill. The President is getting boxed in – and Les tells us its from a place we might not expect. With the experts and insiders every week – it’s The FarrCast!
44:52
June 5, 2019
Maximum Impact, Minimum Ouch
It’s another great FarrCast this week, and Michael kicks it off with Kenny Polcari. Kenny says investors should be worried, but be aware – the conversation has changed and the negatives can start feeding on themselves. Markets reprice when given new information and the pullback on the change of China trade talks is no surprise. Opportunities can arise because the algos and short term trades usually overreact to bad news. You can’t just throw a dart it, but a buying opportunity may be coming. Dan Mahaffee joins for the second segment and talks about what the President is not doing with China. A cooling off period has begun – how much is posturing and how much is a start of a new cold war? There is no playbook and while both countries want a compromise, there are limits to how far they will go. The impasse will continue over the summer as Dan explains the significance of the Tiananmen Square anniversary to the Party. Special guest Jack Bouroudjian joins for the third segment – he’s been nothing short of prescient on his previous FarrCast appearances and he polishes up his crystal ball for us. But first, he tells us about his one long term hold that’s worked out for him (33 years!) Jack sees the China trade war as necessary pain to protect IP not just for the short term interests of the markets, but for the health of both economies over the long term. He shares what he sees in the bond markets, more a foreign exchange story than a recession indicator. And Jack’s bullish call on markets for 2020. It’s the FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street, and The World.
48:06
May 29, 2019
I Think I'd Be Crying Before the First Daily Double
Welcome to the FarrCast! Markets moved down! Markets moved up! Well, that's what markets do -- Michael reminds that it's buy low, not sell low, that's the idea. The economy, and the markets, are ok, not great, definitely nervous, but ok.   Dan Mahaffee joins us and it's been another interesting week in the Washington, beginning with a legal loss for the President. Dan walks us through the next steps and how the legal story winds along for some time. But perhaps outside of the beltway, people aren't concerned -- instead they are looking for normalcy and therein lies the story of the Democratic candidates for President. For the world we have James Pethokoukis from the American Enterprise Institute. From the first days of the Trump administration everyone points to infrastructure for possible middle ground that everyone can agree on. Jim says there has been great political theater, and we can expect more tomorrow when the Chuck & Nancy show arrives at the White House. There is a lot of uncertainty about growth --and there is a chance of recession -- but there is a chance of a productivity improvements and a sustained expansion.
47:37
May 22, 2019
Art of the Deal Translated into Mandarin
It’s a new FarrCast and the markets are swinging back and forth. Volatility is with us and it can be frightening, but Michael reminds us – sell high, buy low. It’s not a time to be chasing markets up then selling as we hit turbulence. Dan Mahaffee gives us insight into what is happening in Beijing as the trade war escalates. China’s historical vision tell them to avoid evening appearing to kowtow to the West and the US, and they feel they have an advantage not dealing with a domestic election cycle. The hardliners are in the ascendency and Dan doesn’t see any climb down soon. Stepping back, Dan points out that China, for all of their authoritarian issue and atrocious human rights record is a growing and vibrant country. The US cannot contain China -- How do we compete? For the world segment, Michael welcomes Martin Barnes, Chief Economist for BCA Research. What does trade war mean for the economy? There aren’t many precedents, but the 1930s are one, and it didn’t go well. Martin says he doesn’t see anything that dire, but it’s definitely bad news for the economy. Michael and Martin move the discussion on to the Federal Reserve and the pitfalls of monetary policy – and what they are getting right (so far.) Monetary policy is a blunt instrument, and it’s inevitable the Fed will eventually zig when they should have zagged. But for all of the trade uncertainty, as long as the Fed stays on the sidelines, Martin is constructive on the markets for the rest of the year.
51:29
May 15, 2019
Wow We Got a Lot of Metaphors This Week
Jim Iuorio says the pullback is real -- but it's not awful. A shakeout isn't necessarily a bad thing because it exposes weaknesses in the system, and we were comfortably at highs. The technical level that worries Jim is still a distance off -- 2825, and he wouldn't be surprised if we test it. The Fed is still sitting on the sidelines, and Jim is constructive on the rest of the year, but there will be a period of turbulence -- and perhaps a buying opportunity as it subsides. China is on everyone's mind, and political analyst Dan Mahaffee lived and studied there and is one of the Washington experts not just on what plays in DC, but plays in Beijing. No one in Washington, it seems, is comfortable with President Trump's negotiating style, but is conceding it might just work. Moving inside the Capitol Building, there is growing discontent with the Executive Branch's defiance of Legislative Oversight. If the impasses continue, the House may step up the pressure. We continue the conversation on DC (and back to China) with veteran journalist Mark Hamrick. Mark sees a resurgence of the center in American politics. Does Wall Street care? Mark says he doesn't think so: history tells us the markets do well in Democratic administrations and devoid of radical change, the capital markets chug along.
42:42
May 8, 2019
Plagiarism Now Seems Kind of Quaint
It's another great FarrCast this week and we kick it off with the return of Kenny Polcari! Markets are drifting upwards. Kenny says a lot of good news is already priced in and be prepared for a stall. Yet even after 25% up from the Christmas lows, Kenny remains productive on the markets. A well designed portfolio should  So much to talk about in DC, and Dan Mahaffee begins with Schumer and Pelosi visiting the President and talking infrastructure. Everyone seemed to be happy and agreed spending two trillion dollars is a good idea (but no word as to where the money comes from.) Trump is suing to keep his finances secret. Dan says that Congress will continue to push investigations, but try and avoid impeachment. Dan closes with a quick overview of the Democratic nominees and recalls the Will Rogers quote, "I don't belong to an organized political party. I'm a Democrat." For The World segment, we are privileged to welcome Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz. Neil and Michael begin with the big picture: how the political and economic cycle of globalization that began with Reagan and Thatcher is merging into something else. The landscape is changing and Neil travels the globe and his crystal ball is as clear as anyone's. The changes we are seeing could have long term implications for trade, and ultimately for the dollar. Neil says a recession isn't close -- but could be forming on the horizon.
44:56
May 1, 2019
Trees Don’t Always Grow to the Sky
Markets made new highs today and The FarrCast welcomes special guest, Chief Economist from Wells Fargo, Jay Bryson.  We start with an expert trader Steve Weiss. In the short term, markets, Steve says, are about expectations as much as anything. Sentiment turned so sour and the markets lowered expectations so much going into earnings season that the expectations were easy to beat. And so the markets march on. Steve says the underlying fundamentals are ok – and while he’s not wildly bullish, he’s constructive on the rest of the year. In the second segment, political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins us. The Democratic field just gets larger – and candidates are jockeying for attention, which doesn’t always lead to good policy proposals. The Mueller investigation isn’t leaving the headlines anytime soon, and Dan tells us what the winding path leads to next. Jay Bryson joins to talk about the broader world economy and he says the economy is doing pretty well right now; sure we downshifted a little from last year, but we didn’t stall.  He explains why growing debt is a concern, but not a worry keeping him up at night. He doesn’t foresee a recession in view and explains recessions are caused by one of two things: unexpected events (which by definition you can’t expect) and financial imbalances (think housing 10 years ago, tech 20 years ago, commercial real estate 30 years ago.) Right now, nothing is wildly out of balance. Farr makes the case that Jay Bryson should be the next Fed Governor. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
49:56
April 24, 2019
I'm Worried That I'm Not Worried
We start with market expert Jim Iuorio calling in from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.  After all of the hand-wringing, the markets are moving higher, and now closing in on the all time highs. Jim says he feels good, and that worries him a little bit. There might not be much more good news to add into the soup. Is there room for disappointment? Jim tells where he the next leg up, why it stalls, and where it goes from there. A holiday weekend is coming up and in DC that means Mueller time. Dan Mahaffee joins and tells us what we won't learn on Thursday when the redacted report will come out -- and where the next fights lie. Both sides will see what they want to see. Looking forward, the Mueller report won't change anyone's mind, can we move on to discussions about what matters to people's daily lives, and pocketbooks. Special guest Tony Fratto joins us for the third segment. Tony is a veteran of the Bush Administration (and campaigns.) We begin talking about Mayor Pete. Tony says Buttigieg is a serious, and genuine thinker. Is there room for reasoned debate and thoughtful policy in American politics? Tony has been in DC since 1991. He says living in DC gets easier year after year, but professionally, it's never been more raw. We close with looping around to the economy. Is 3000 within reach? Farr says yes.
46:29
April 17, 2019
Special: Innovation in China (and Coffee and Joy!)
It’s a special FarrCast. On this week’s regular show, guest Chris Campbell from Yum Brands China shared some of the details of doing business in China. In the special, Michael welcomes Chris back for an extra segment for a deeper dive. China expert Dan Mahaffee stays on and we learn about making an archtypical American brand – KFC – into a uniquely successful Chinese business. Listen for a fascinating look at the interactions of a changing culture, emerging middle class, and new technologies (that you may see at your KFC in coming years.) It’s about more than chicken – it’s a look into the cross-cultural reach of international business. “The interview with Chris Campbell regarding YUM China may include ‘forward looking statements’ within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended. We intend all such forward-looking statements in this interview to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.”
31:39
April 10, 2019
Ten Year Money Sometimes Forgets It’s Ten Year Money
First up on tonight’s FarrCast it’s Josh Brown from CNBC and Ritholz Wealth Management. Josh and Michael talk about where every investment relationship begins – not with what security to buy, but with what the investor’s goals are. Josh tells why he’s not afraid of a recession, and shares the one thing he is absolutely certain of. (It’s not what you think!)  Next up it’s our senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee. Sec’y Nielsen is out at Homeland Security – and there are implications beyond just the border. The Mueller investigation has had its first leaks, but is everyone just sick of it now? The cracks are beginning to show in the Democratic party between the moderates and the progressives. Dan takes us through DC – the gift that keeps on giving. We have a special third segment. We keep hearing that doing business in China is different. We have a guest who knows first hand what doing business in China means: Chris Campbell, a Director of Yum Brands China. He was the architect of the spinoff of Yum China and they now employ 450,000 in China. Chris talks about their business model and how they navigate government regulations. It’s The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World “The interview with Chris Campbell regarding YUM China may include ‘forward looking statements’ within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended. We intend all such forward-looking statements in this interview to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.”
50:56
April 10, 2019
You Don't Learn Much from the Second Kick of the Mule
In the past, the yield curve inversion has been a pretty good indicator of a recession. Jim Iuorio joins and explains, technically (but simply) why this time is different. Jim says there isn't much to be scared about -- except other people being scared. Eventually a recession will come, but Jim says right now, the economy is broadly in good shape. He shares his concerns, and what he's watching coming over the horizon. There might be some bumps in the market as the economy shifts into a new gear. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk what's going on in DC. The talk in DC begins with the Southern Border. Dan breaks down the forces for migration. It's different from the economic migration of decades past as Central American families flee violence. There are short-term and long-term issues, and all have economic, political, and humanitarian impacts. In the White House, the President has shifted again on healthcare, and on the Hill, the GOP has collective sigh of relief. Michael closes with his outlook on the world -- we are climbing a wall of worry, and that's not a bad place to be.
39:57
April 3, 2019
The President Might Not Drink But He’s Enjoying Mueller Time
It’s the FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street and the World! We start on Wall Street as Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link. The markets have twisted and turned as the yield curve has flattened, but Stephanie says it’s no time to panic. She is looking long term and it’s not rosy – but it’s not bad. Michael moves on to Washington and Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about the policy implications of the Mueller report. There are opportunities for progress but at least for now, both sides are playing to their base. For the third segment, Heather Long, economics correspondent from The Washington Post calls in to talk about the bigger world. Every year the first quarter brings bad news – Heather shares what she’s looking for in a spring bounce. As long as the consumer is ok, the economy will keep chugging along.
47:56
March 27, 2019
It's Easy to Yell at a Panda
Welcome to another great FarrCast! Michael welcomes back Kenny Polcari. It's been a pretty good year so far, but he expects a little sideways movement. There has been a lot of good news priced in (and the Fed gave the markets some good news today) and there could be some shocks along the way. On the whole, the economy is sound and Kenny says stay the course, and watch for opportunities to buy. For the second segment we move from Wall St to Washington, and senior analyst Dan Mahaffee is our guide. Not everyone is running for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but it seems like it. We are in the age of social network campaigning: sensationalism works but is it healthy? Dan is the Director of Policy for the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress -- and there is much to study. What in the world is going on with Brexit? When the experts aren't sure, they go to their experts and we go to Andy Keiser. Andy is a national security expert with two decades of experience, but he makes clear, no one has experienced anything like this.
44:56
March 21, 2019
Calling It Dog's Breakfast Is an Insult to What I Feed My Dog
Michael welcomes Jack Bouroudjian, legendary trader and economist from UCX in Chicago. When Jack was last with us, it was just before the market bottomed. He told us what the markets needed to turn at Christmas, and he was spot on. He shares what he's looking for next -- and it's something every investor needs to hear. The Speaker says the President isn't worth impeaching; Dan Mahaffee says the Democrats are opting for guerrilla warfare instead of trench warfare. Brexit is back at the top of the headlines, and PM May was walloped in Parliament again. It's yet another impasse for Parliament and there are no easy or obvious solutions. Les Munson adds that the dreams of an independent UK are, ironically, dying on an Irish border. For the third segment, the conversation shifts to China -- and special guest Lester Munson. Does President Xi need a deal more than President Trump? Whether the tariffs have had an impact on the Chinese or not is unclear, and perhaps unimportant. The details of any deal matter, but the details of how to get there might not be.
46:31
March 13, 2019
Are We Just a Ball of Yarn and They're a Large Cat?
Jim Iuorio joins in with a check in on the markets. Listeners to the FarrCast know that when the markets bounced on Christmas Eve, there would be a pause in the rally about 2645 (and there was) and then at 2800 (and here we are.) Jim says to break higher we need two things: a real (even if incomplete) agreement with China, AND the Fed doesn't re-pivot and turn hawkish. If we see a "grace period" Jim thinks the markets will power through the 2800 level. For the second segment, Dan Mahaffee joins us -- it's a big week in DC. Trump walked away from the table in VIetnam -- The President saw a no deal was better than a bad deal with North Korea. Dan explains Robert Lighthizer's task: negotiating any enforcement of a deal with China. It's a huge task, but incremental progress seems to being made. Dan says we get a deal, but it will be vague, and there will likely have a "snapback" tariff mechanism. Meanwhile in DC, the Democrats are sorting out the 2020 contenders, and Dan says a Biden announcement appears imminent. Michael closes the show with an explanation of how the supply solutions to the Financial Crisis are reaching their limits. The slow growth environment of the economy has deep roots, and lower returns on investment are likely to be the norm for sometime. But the future isn't bleak -- ok IS ok! Lower returns doesn't mean no return at all.
45:02
March 6, 2019
Making His Own Headwinds
With the Federal Reserve at the top of the headlines this week, we have a special FarrCast beginning with special guest Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, former President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, now Distinguished Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, . The Fed has shifted into pause and the balance sheet is moving towards normalization. What does that mean for the economy? For the markets? Dan Mahaffee joins us from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress -- and there are so many things to study just today! The one point we may have learned from the Cohen testimony is that even if the Mueller investigation is wrapping up, there are other investigations lining up. Elsewhere on Capitol Hill, Trade Negotiator Robert Lighthizer was testifying -- and it looks like the Trump Administration wants some wins, even if it doesn't mean full resolution. Plus Korea, India, Pakistan, and more -- it's a full plate. To bring it together we welcome back audience favorite Tom Heath from the Washington Post. Tom cuts through the noise -- and reminds us the market has rallied and the economy is sound. Tom reminds us the lesson is the long term investor needs to stay in the market or you'll miss the legs up. We will have a recession sooner or later, but probably later. It takes a patience -- the calendar is the long term investor's friend.
45:49
February 28, 2019
Here’s My LeBron Moment
Snow is coming to DC and Michael is back in studio to bring you another great FarrCast! Kenny Polcari calls in from his new gig, and says the markets feel good. The markets are expecting a trade deal, but not getting too far ahead of itself. Markets are reasonably priced after rising out of the despair of December. The markets started low, but Kenny sees a piece meal trade deal coming together, and the markets having a constructive year. Dan Mahaffee is back on the FarrCast to give us the insight from Capitol Hill. The China deal still has a long way to go, and China’s history speaks to a deep cultural resistance to a technology deal. Both sides need a win, so financial access issues and tariff suspension might be declared a win, but deep divides remain. Moving on to Europe, the Munich Security Conference has shown how deep the divide is now between the US and our allies. Yet Dan says unless it hits pocketbooks, ultimately American voters don’t care. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Greg Valliere to the studio. Greg has long been one of the leading policy analysts writing for the financial industry. Greg parses the latest moves from the Democrats – and how those moves strengthen Trump with his base. In a wide ranging conversation, Greg and Michael handicap the early stages of the 2020 Presidential race, the Fed and interest rates, and the forecast for the economy. To subscribe to Greg Valliere’s newsletter, Capital Insights, go to: https://perspectives.agf.com/subscribe/
44:47
February 20, 2019
We've Had a Pretty Good Year in the Last Month
It's a new FarrCast! The markets are up 17% off the Christmas lows. Will the rally continue? As we hit the next significant resistance level, Michael talks with Jim Baka of Calamos Wealth Management on some of the tools available to the long term investor.   Senior Political Analyst Dan Mahaffee says the President might not be happy -- but with a deal in place in Congress, another shutdown isn't likely. The next fight is over where the Administration is going to shift money around to buy more wall that what the Congress will appropriate money for. Dan moves on to China -- the rhetoric has calmed down, but the two sides really are far apart. Issues remain, but there is enough progress that Dan thinks the President will postpone the March 1 tariff deadline. Moving on to Brexit -- the Brexiteers want to leave the EU club but dictate the terms to the club. Dan isn't as optimistic as he was on a second referendum, but thinks some delay to the exit is coming. In the third segment, Michael welcomes John Morris of Crestwood Advisors. Michael and John dive into the rally. How far can it go? The economy is plodding along -- John thinks volatility is hiding now, but not going away. He's confident that the markets will be constructive this year, but there will be potholes along the way, and even a correction isn't out of the question.
41:33
February 13, 2019
The State of the State of the Union
The FarrCast is back and thawed out after a week in deep freeze! Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio to talk on the markets: we’ve seen a 16% rise since the Christmas Eve lows. Jim says there has been a lot of good news and we may well drift higher, but there is a China sized (& shaped) roadblock up ahead. He sees positives ahead for 2019 and tells us where he sees potholes along the way. Dan Mahaffee joins us for an expert’s view on the State of the Union. The President painted with a broad brush, as SotU speeches tend to do, and began to set outlines of the 2020 campaign. Plus, Dan gives his thoughts on another shutdown. There are whispers on the Hill that the White House is considering forcing another to blame the Democrats and “clean the slate” for five week shutdown that just ended. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Lester Munson, who brings over a quarter century of experience in DC and insight into the state of play. He says Trump needs to think about messaging for the suburbs if he is to sustain his political life. Michael and Les move on to talk about the nomination of David Malpass as President of the World Bank. Though Malpass has been a noted World Bank critic, Les says that ultimately his appointment could be a great boon for the World Bank. It's The Farrcast—your insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
44:00
February 7, 2019
Well It Feels Like a Millennia
On tonight's FarrCast, Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link. She is one of the leading minds, and leading voices on Wall Street and she share her thoughts on how market volatility can be an opportunity for the long term investor. The markets turned down today, apparently because of the realization that global growth is slowing -- but that's old news if you've been listening to the FarrCast. Listen for what Michael and Stephanie see coming next. The shutdown continues and Dan Mahaffee gives us the lay of the land in DC. The President's support is faltering, and as 800,000 Federal workers approach the second payday without a check, the pain is increasing. Each side is dug in their trenches, but they are being pushed out to begin the work towards a compromise. In the third segment, Michael talks China with one of the leading experts on Chinese economy, politics and culture in Washington -- the FarrCast's very own Dan Mahaffee! Last week it seemed that everything was coming together for a trade deal and today it all seemed to come apart. In the More Mahaffee segment Dan walks us through the complex transition that China is facing: not just economically but socially. Dan predicts we will see progress on trade, and some agreement, but resolution may take decades.
47:08
January 23, 2019
Peering into the Corner of the Attic
It's a snowy FarrCast! 2019 is off to a good start in the markets -- there's plenty to make up from the dive at the end of 2018. Michael reviews the markets as they've found their footing. Things aren't great -- but they aren't bad. We welcome Mark Hamrick, veteran economic journalist, former head of the National Press Club and currently chief economist at Bankrate.com. Michael and Mark have a free ranging conversation on Brexit, the market outlook, and a dive into a new consumer survey from Bankrate. Seventy percent of the economy is driven by the consumer, and what the consumer thinks and feels is an important barometer of where the economy is going. In our second segment, Dan Mahaffee joins to talk DC and the World. He discusses the pendulum swings in politics, and the decline of the middle ground -- and the concern that also can diminish the middle class. We move on the Mueller investigation; the turn the investigation has taken is more to counterintelligence. Dan outlines the trajectory of the climax of the investigation. Finally, the Brexit deal was rejected by British Parliament. Dan says Teresa May will survive the no-confidence vote, and that a second referendum is becoming more and more of a possibility.
34:26
January 16, 2019
Pulling Down the Wallpaper
It's a New Year and it's a new FarrCast! We start with Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. There are a ton of moving parts, Jim says, and he breaks down why the markets broke down in December, and what they need to see for the next leg up. Dan Mahaffee joins to tell us the state of play in Washington, DC. The holidays brought one domino fell after another. The impacts of the shutdown are beginning to be felt as TSA, USDA, and other acronyms are closed. The perfect is the enemy of the good, Dan reminds us, and he says that to expect a dramatic and symbolic solution, but maybe not substantive. Michael welcomes special guest Jon Najarian for our third segment. Markets hate uncertainty, but Jon reminds us that uncertainty can be good for investors because pockets of value can form. It's not all clear moving forward in 2019 -- but there are reasons to be optimistic. The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
46:23
January 11, 2019
It's a special Year End FarrCast!
Every year, Michael picks his top ten. This year, there are bargains to be had after the markets have tumbled. What are the prospects in a market repricing environment?  Farr, Miller & Washington is a "buy-to-hold" investment manager, which means we make each investment with the intent to hold the position for a period of 3-5 years. Nevertheless, in each of the past thirteen Decembers I have selected and invested personally in ten of the stocks we follow with the intention of holding for just one year. These are companies that I find especially attractive in light of their valuations or their potential to benefit from economic developments. I hold an equal dollar amount in each of the positions for the following year, and then I reinvest in the new list. This is my Top 10 for 2019, listed in no particular order. This year's Top Ten represent a nice combination of growth and defensiveness. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 industry sectors are represented, and their average long-term estimated growth rate (in EPS) is well in excess of the overall market. Also on average, these companies are much larger than the average S&P 500 company while carrying an average dividend yield of about 2%. Results have been good in some years and not as good in others. I will sell my 2018 names on Monday, December 31st and buy the following names that afternoon. The reader should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable. These are not recommendations to buy or sell securities. There is risk of losing principal. Past performance is no indication of future results. If you are interested in any of these names, please call us or your financial advisor to discuss.
24:30
December 31, 2018
Dovish Bubble Wrap
Three trading days until Christmas and Santa Claus and his rally are nowhere to be seen. We welcome Jim Iuorio from the CME to talk about the markets. It's an uncertain time, and Jim says the getting tomorrow's Fed meeting in the rear view mirror will help. On the FarrCast, we say "emotion is the foe of the long-term investor" and right now the focus is on Jerome Powell -- and he needs to show no emotion and calm the emotional beast of the markets down. It's not just Wall Street providing news this week, and Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about Washington, Beijing and places in between. Dan notes that the President's pressure on the Fed puts Jerome Powell in a difficult position -- even if the data supports a pause, it's important to demonstrate independence from political pressure. Moving on to China, Dan points out where China is willing to make concessions, and what their long view goals are. The China story isn't going away, and we'll be talking more in 2019. It's the last FarrCast of the year, and for our big finale Michael welcomes one of our greatest guest, Jack Bouroudjian, chief economist for UCX. Jack is a trader, an investor, and absolutely the expert's expert. Jack returns us to a theme from the beginning of the year -- repatriation. It's been propping up the dollar and suppressing inflation. Still, he agrees we will see the "dovish rate hike." Jack gives his thoughts what the themes that will govern what moves the markets in 2019. It's a FarrCast that you can't miss -- our guests don't just read the headlines, they look at what the next headlines will be.
46:28
December 18, 2018
Shutdown Light
Eventful. Well, that's one way to put it. Jim Iuorio joins us from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and gives us the technical take. It's not voodoo: the levels and patterns technicians watch are reliable predictors of the sentiments of market participants. Jim tells us what he watches to get a handle on what the collective psychological sentiment of the markets. What happened at The White House today? Really, what was that? Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the President and Congress joins us and his study really helps sort the political theater. Neither side is winning, and suddenly a government shutdown looks more probable. The only place it seems common ground might be found is spending (well borrowing) more money.
49:32
December 12, 2018
Will Xi or Won't Xi?
The market dropped 800! Don't panic -- listen to the FarrCast! Jim Iuorio joins us, and he's not worried about the yield curve, maybe a little about trade. The markets are behaving like markets do -- and sometimes they go down. Keep an eye on the long term: it was an awful day for sure, but relax and keep to your discipline. President Trump returned from Argentina and the G20 and said he'd made the biggest deal of his life. Yet the bond market didn't move. Dan Mahaffee joins us from Washington to parse what happened -- and what didn't happen. Dan is a China hand, having lived and studied there, and he gives some insight into the pressures that President Xi faces at home.  Finally in our third segment, Michael gives tribute on the passing of the forty-first President. Michael reflects on his acquaintance with George H. W. Bush and the life and example of the President. President Bush believed in a kinder America and devoted his life to creating a better America. Thank you for service, Mr. President. Godspeed.
37:17
December 5, 2018
East German Swimmers & The Fed
We hope you had a great Thanksgiving! The FarrCast is back and the markets seem to be settling down. Michael welcomes Kenny Polcari who says the markets are waiting on geo-political events. The economy is sound and consumers just spent a record amount on Black Friday. Michael asks Kenny the question on everyone's mind: will there be a Santa Claus rally? Breaking news! Just before we went to air, Trump gave an interview to the Washington Post, and what an interview. Dan Mahaffee from the Center of the Presidency and Congress joins to talk about the President's comments on GM and the Fed. Remember what we've said on the FarrCast: the economy and the markets aren't the same thing. Lester Munson joins for our third segment. He says he's looking forward to season three of the Trump show -- great new characters and lots of fighting. The ratings should be great! Moving on the G20 summit, Les is looking for a lot of great tango metaphors from the summit, but not a lot more. President Xi is feeling pressure though, and Les says the Administration has done a good job of lowering expectations. Finally, Les says Trump's path to re-election in 2020 looks very rocky two years out.
47:19
November 28, 2018
We're Followed By All of the Finest Treasury Secretaries
Remember when interest rates spiked upwards? Well, the markets are still trying to find to stability. Kenny Polcari told us that we have to test the lows of October again and then the markets can begin to build again. Rates are rising, and the markets have to decide what the proper valuation is in the new environment. Kenny gives us a quick primer on the fragmentation of the markets, and how that exaggerates the volatility.  Michael welcomes Matt Leffingwell to talk about DC post-midterms. It's been a while since we've heard from Matt, and he walks us through the chatter on the Hill. The tech industry is watching for privacy legislation, the financials are watching for new regulation, and everyone is looking at infrastructure. Leffingwell says we will see gridlock across most areas, but drug pricing may be a point of agreement. When the markets are confused, Mona Mahajan, US Investment Strategist from Allianz GI, has a voice that makes sense. Michael welcomes Mona on to peel back the layers. The US economy is strong, but will the momentum continue in the face of trade difficulties, rising rates, and slower global growth? Mona makes the case that we aren't heading into a recession, so the markets will likely find the technical bottom and move forward. To keep with Kenny Polcari's thoughts, you can subscribe to his daily note at: www.kennypolcari.com For Michael Farr's weekly Market Commentary, subscribe at www.farrmiller.com and click on "Market Commentary" To read Mona Mahajan's Outlook, go to: https://us.allianzgi.com/individual/our-firm/our-experts/our-experts-details/mona-mahajan
46:42
November 21, 2018
What We Learned from TV Re-Runs
t's another wild week in the markets! Jim Iuorio joins Michael and reminds us -- you can lose money in the markets, and when we forget that the markets slap us in the face. You can't just shovel money into the market anymore, but have to have a plan. Jim has a plan, and shares some of the things he's looking for in the data as we come to the end of the year. Wild week in the markets? It's nothing compared to what is happening in Washington this week. Dan Mahaffee joins from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress to sort it out. The electorate is changing, but are the parties keeping up? Amidst the chaos, there is some good news: Secretary Mnuchin is working hard to lay groundwork for a Xi-Trump meeting at the end of the month. Dan is a China expert, and has deep insight into the long view the Chinese are taking. For our special guest, we welcome back Tom Heath from The Washington Post. Tom says he loves a good downturn -- and explains why. Tom has seen market downturns before, and if you have the stomach for them, they are a gift for the long term investor. It's a great new FarrCast! Listen in, have a laugh, and learn a little.
43:45
November 14, 2018
TINA Is in the ICU
It's the election FarrCast! Kenny Polcari calls in from the floor on the New York Stock Exchange. The markets had a big relief rally on Wednesday: split government is what the markets wanted to see. Then on Thursday, the markets breathed out. Kenny says we are in a seasonally strong time of year, but will likely test support before another leg up. Looking forward to 2019, Michael and Kenny say there is competition for money next year, and that's a good thing. We go to Washington with Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Dan pretty much called the election results right on: the suburbs turned towards the Democrats in the House, but the electoral map kept the Senate in GOP hands. Dan points out that divided government has historically produced significant legislation. Will we see the Art of the Deal President next year, or the Campaign Rally President? We continue to live in interesting times. For our special guest, tonight we have Greg Valliere, Chief Global Strategist for Horizon Investments. His career has been studying the links between DC policy and Wall St market movement. The 2018 midterms are over, and the 2020 campaign begins immediately, and Greg sees little getting done. He takes a little bit of a a contrarian view: gridlock is maybe not as good thing the markets think -- health care, infrastructure, and especially deficits all need attention. The important point for investors is the economic fundamentals are pretty sound, but Greg has some concerns that he shares. To subscribe to Greg Valliere's Daily Capitol Notes: http://www2.horizoninvestments.com/capitolnotes
48:05
November 9, 2018
The Market Soared! (But Hold On)
The market soared! Well, Kenny Polcari says hold on -- the Dow was up 400 points (and 250 of that in the last hour and a half today!) but we are still off 2000 from the highs. Kenny says it's not over yet, but the market is trying to build a base, but don't be surprised to see another test of the lows as the market digests the midterms. Is civility dead? That's the question Michael poses to DC expert Dan Mahaffee. The midterm campaigns are (over) heating, and we are one week from the election. Dan goes underneath the headlines and says there is some encouragement that civil discourse and debate might rise again in the Republic. For our third segment special guest, Michael welcomes Stephanie Link, fellow CNBC contributor and Head of Global Equities Research at Nuveen. This has been an extreme earnings season -- Stephanie says it's been "sell first and ask questions later." If you think long term (as Stephanie does) there are opportunities and the big picture, the fundamentals, are still good. We have to get through the midterms and the markets could find their feet.
40:25
October 31, 2018
A Fortnight Is About Two Weeks
44:01
October 22, 2018
Ganges, Potomac, and L'Etat C'est Moi (Oh My)
Welcome to the FarrCast! As always we start with the markets, and what a difference a week makes. The Dow ricocheted 500 points -- Kenny Polcari joins from the floor, and he says the pain isn't over yet, but it does seem like the markets are building a floor; Kenny says to watch for the lows creeping higher -- that's the good sign we want to see. It's early in earnings season, and while bottom line profits look good, the top line revenue growth is important and Michael and Kenny explain why. Senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the President and Congress calls in to give us the latest from Capital Hill. The President has been using the Stock Market as a scorecard for the economy, and that is becoming politically dangerous. Trump has said "my greatest threat" is the Federal Reserve. Looking abroad, Dan makes the point that while the US relationship with Saudi Arabia might not be a love match, the cost of the divorce is more than the cost of staying together -- expect realpolitik to outweigh outrage. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Mark Hamrick, longtime financial journalist, and current Washington Bureau Chief of Bankrate.com. We are living in a world of market gyrations, jawboning, and fake news. Mark talks about the importance of clear, verified information to the financial markets, and how as a journalists they plow through. Mark talks about the markets and how it's good for the investor that the Fed stays focused on their (apolitical) long-term goals.
43:48
October 16, 2018
Running To, and Running Away . . .
Markets are waffled as yield surged. Kenny Polcari joins us tonight and tells us why there is no reason to panic, and what to look for as earnings begin. Kenny is looking to the banks to get off to a good start, and is looking for another leg up before the end of the year. DC is the gift that keeps giving, and our senior political analyst, Dan Mahaffee helps to sort. Two weeks ago, Dan said Rosensteen stays and Kavanaugh goes -- Dan explains what got Kavanaugh over the line. Breaking news from DC today as Nikki Haley has resigned as Ambassador to the UN. There might be some musical chairs after the midterms, and Dan unpacks some of the rumors flying inside the Beltway. We welcome as our special guest, CJ Corneliussen from Metavivor.org, an organization working to improve funding and support for metastatic cancer. She explains the economics of cancer, and cancer research. There has been an emphasis on prevention and treatment in cancer research, but CJ helps us to understand how the profile of the funding has human, and economic costs.
37:14
October 10, 2018
Markets Underestimate the Fed, Kavanaugh Goes, Rosenstein Stays
Wow, what a week! What will we talk about? We start with the markets and Jim Iuorio -- there has been a lot of talk about a bull market, but Jim points out that much of 2015 and 2016 traded sideways. Corrections can be time or in price. There is a lot of great news lately -- consumer confidence, employment, median income. But there is concern -- will the higher rates eventually break the rally. Iuorio is optimistic but is worried about the word "accelerate" coming from the Fed tomorrow. Anything to talk about in DC this week? Supreme Court, midterms, resignations, oh my! The Kavanaugh nomination is trouble, and Dan Mahaffee says right now the votes might not be there. Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein was said to resign, then didn't, and now he's meeting with President on Thursday. Dan says right now the Democrats midterm strategy is the Napoleonic dictum: don't get in your adversaries way while he's making a mistake. In the third segment, Michael welcomes Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, past President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed is definitely going to announce a rate hike, but Dr. Lacker explains what the Fed is discussing as they look forward. He's been in the room in previous meetings, and he thinks the markets are under-estimating how many rate hikes are coming in 2019.   It's a packed week. Listen in to the FarrCast and unpack it!
45:13
September 25, 2018
So You're Saying It's Coercion
Michael opens tonight's show with an explanation of financial discipline -- investors talk about it, but what does it mean? How does rebalancing help manage your risk? Michael brings on bond expert Andy Mathes tonight. He tells us what he sees in the bond markets, and what that tells us about where the equity markets go next? Last week, Dan Mahaffee said that the Kavanaugh nomination should proceed apace unless something cataclysmic happens. Tonight Mahaffee says "I think we have a cataclysm here." The Kavanaugh hearings calls into question the nature of the Supreme Court: is the Court a political court or a constitutional court?  The FarrCast welcomes back Lester Munson, former chief of staff for Senator Mark Kirk. Les has spent over 25 years on the Hill and working in foreign relations. Les and Dan have a lively discussion on the escalation of the trade war. How vulnerable is China? What does "winning" a trade war even mean?  Listen in and learn about today's movement in the bond market to the future of the Chinese economy, and everything in between.
45:06
September 18, 2018
Pulling a Circus Tent Over the Swamp
When the S&P 500 set a new high on October 21, Kenny Polcari was the FarrCast saying he'd like the markets trade sideways for a bit AND he expected September to be okay. Now we are in the middle of September and Kenny has been spot on. Michael and Kenny talk about what comes next. Dan Mahaffee joins to look at DC: there is an unprecedented disconnect between the health of the economy and the popularity of the President. Trump fatigue is setting in, and the GOP looks to lose the House.  Tom Heath of the Washington Post joins us to bring his long term perspective. You have to expect the markets to go down. You have to expect the markets to go up. That's what markets do -- make sure you know what your time horizon is for your investments, and don't panic. If you can't sleep at night worrying about your investment -- don't own it.
43:39
September 12, 2018
Playing Chess on Three Boards
It's the Chicago FarrCast! Jim Iuorio joins us from Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The markets had an excuse this week to back off with a little hint of wage inflation (remember February when a hint sent the market into a correction?) but the rally continues. The yield curve is flattening, but it's still positive. There might be a chink in the market's armor in the increasing rate environment. Chicago native Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress comes in and gives us a little more detail about the Mexico trade deal. The rhetoric is positive, but Dan tells us why the Canadian hurdle might still be a bigger jump (and why that impacts any deal with Mexico.) It's a big week in DC -- Sessions stays? Kavanaugh to be confirmed? And a few words on the late, great, Senator John McCain. For the long term look, Michael welcomes back Jack Bouroudjian, Chief Economist from UCX in Chicago -- six months ago on the FarrCast Jack said, "the easy money in this market has been made." Jack is watching the dollar, emerging markets, and he's concerned these highs are occurring at the wrong time. Is a late summer peak? Jack tells us the bond markets are telling us one thing and the equity markets another. It's a confused market -- Jack says to be very careful. Wall Street, The Hill, and The World -- The FarrCast covers it all! Listen and subscribe today!
46:07
August 29, 2018
Pleas, Convictions, and new Market Highs!
The FarrCast is back! People are coming back from vacation, and juries are returning with verdicts. Michael welcomes back the great Kenny Polcari to sort out what it means for the markets. Kenny says, in the short term, political noise might create volatility, but in the long-term does not price stocks. September is usually a rough month for equities, but Kenny thinks the markets hold up. UNLESS -- something comes out of left field. Dan Mahaffee joins from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, and explains what the news from the Manafort trial and Cohen plea agreement impacts the "blue wave." The Trump Administration keeps stomping on its own good news, and it means we are likely moving to divided government after the midterms. To start the new season, Michael welcomes one of the smartest market strategists in the business today, Mona Mahajan from Allianz Global. The year began with tax reform and the synchronized global growth story -- as the global story has fallen off, the US economy has remained robust. It's late in the cycle, yes there will be volatility, yes there will be rotation, but there could be value as well.
50:46
August 21, 2018
Republicans Hate Us... Democrats Hate Us... We Must Be Doing Something Right!
Jim Iuorio joins us from the floor of the Chicago Exchange to talk earnings and blue skies ahead. Dan Mahaffee discusses Iran, Russia and more tax cuts. It's hot in D.C. and it's hot on The FarrCast! Please Listen!
35:04
July 24, 2018
I'm Getting T-Shirts Made
It's a slow, languid summer week. The President met a few world leaders and held a press conference that got a little coverage, but there wasn't much . . . Oh who are we kidding? There is enough material for four shows this week. We've got Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange kicking us off with a look at the markets. There was moderately positive economic news on consumer spending and moderately dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, and the markets reacted to that news and ignored the noise from Brussels, London, & Helsinki. Dan Mahaffee joins in to talk about political risk. Michael welcomes former Asst Secy of the Treasury Tony Fratto. Michael opens the mics and Dan, Jim, and Tony take on the big economic picture. Is corporate debt a problem? Where is the next leg up in growth? What are the bonds telling us about the future? And if there is a blue wave in November, what does that mean for the markets? We even have a bonus segment to wrap it all up, and take a look at what next week will bring. It's a special FarrCast for a special week, and we've got the smartest guys in the room to dissect it all.
47:09
July 17, 2018
You Can Lose a Finger
Tariffs blows have been traded and DOOM is upon us. Well, maybe not -- the markets are adapting to the President's totally unprecedented style. Jim Iuorio joins us from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and tells why the sky isn't falling. Tom Heath and Jim talk about oil -- as a massive producer the US benefits from high oil, but hurts the consumer. Where is the sweet spot? Next up is regular Dan Mahaffee -- a Supreme Court nominee has been nominated. Mahaffee says that the Kavanaugh pick is likely to be the biggest lasting legacy of the Trump administration. How does it change what goes in the court? Markets don't like blowups at summits, and Mahaffee previews the NATO summit, and Trump's meeting with Putin. Our special guest Tom Heath from the Washington Post brings it all home for us. Tom's common sense and direct questions helps put everything in context. Right now the economy is chugging along. How does the big picture effect everyone's little picture?  Download and listen today!
40:43
July 11, 2018
My Mom Would Be Really Excited
It's the holiday week edition of FarrCast! Kenny Polcari calls in from the floor of the NYSE and tells us how the markets are distorted by the low volumes on the holiday. Tariffs are to take effect on Friday -- Kenny tells us what to look for depending on how the news breaks, and what the tone is. It's a new quarter, and we look to other side of the tariff news: have we seen a peak in investor sentiment? Dan Mahaffee is Michael's guest for the second segment, and he gives us a preview of the fight for the Supreme Court, and how that may effect the midterms. Mitch McConnell refused a Senate vote for a year on the Merrick Garland nomination. Will there be blowback from the Democrats in the Senate? Can it be done before the election?  Returning to join us as our special guest on the third segment is Andy Keiser, foreign policy expert. It's less than a month since the Singapore summit between the President and Kim Jong-Un. The heat has come off the rhetoric, but has anything really changed? Andy tells us we are just on the first steps of the marathon and Secretary Pompeo has a lot of work to do. There are plenty of other hotspots investors need to watch, and Andy helps us frame the world.
36:23
July 3, 2018
Freshman says the House will shift in November
It's another great FarrCast! The markets dive -- should Fred & Ethel be worried about their retirement accounts? All of the experts agree. The Dow dropped under it's 200 day moving average. Jim Iuorio says, "that means almost nothing to me." Iuorio says the bull market isn't over, but there are things out there that worry him. The Fed still has a tightrope act in the raising rate environment. Dan Mahaffee is with us again to explain the inexplicable -- the dysfunction of DC. This President negotiates in public, and it's something completely different than what we've seen before. It's chaotic -- but there is immense flexibility when orthodoxies are discarded. Michael welcomes as his special guest tonight, John Freshman, the insider's insider, and an expert on all things Washington. With 30 years of experience in the halls of Washington, John puts all of the movements of the markets and in DC in the context of the coming elections. Will we see divided government in the next Congress? Does it even matter? Download and listen today!
39:17
June 25, 2018
From Bombast to Photo Ops - Jaw Jaw is better than War War
Michael opens the show as he always does by checking in with Kenny Polcari to talk about the volatile day on Wall Street and the surprising news about GE. Next, Dan Mahafee from CSPC calls in to discuss the aftermath of the Singapore Summit, and the growing tension between the US and China over the trade war. And Michael wraps up by chatting with Mark Olson from Treliant Risk Advisors about the latest news from the Fed and whether the standard of living in the US will rise or decline in the coming years.
44:16
June 19, 2018
A Special Place in Hell (And Kenny Gets Bleeped)
The market was a big dud -- on the N. Korea news, and Kenny explains why the markets don't react too much to geo-political shifts. But later this week, the Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ all have announcements -- and markets move on monetary shifts. Kenny and Michael explain what the markets are looking for.  Dan Mahaffee is the resident genius at FarrCast from the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress. And boy do we have a President and Congress to be studied. Dan doesn't makes sense of it all -- but he makes as much sense can be made. Trump makes nice with Kim Jong-Un, and throws bombs at the allies in the G7. And yet, amidst the nonsense, there are results.   Tom Heath joins from The Washington Post to put it all together for us, and Michael & Tom sort through the noise. The markets are drifting up, and the economy is doing well. Things are good -- have a plan and take the long view. Michael & Tom talk about the longest view, and how to plan to distribute the estate and "having the hard discussion." Communicate more, not less. Listen in, have a laugh, and maybe a learn a little too! It's the FarrCast!
46:09
June 13, 2018
He Was Just Trying to Get Concert Tickets
Jim Iuorio joins Michael to talk markets -- he's bullish, but he's not euphoric. He tells us why he's optimistic -- and he shares what worries him as well. It's been an interesting week in DC, and Dan Mahaffee tells us what is historically unprecedented, and what is just posturing. Orthodoxy is being challenged and much of it happens beneath the headlines. Mueller and Korea are in the headlines though -- and Dan gives what to look for next. For the third segment, Michael dives in to some of the numbers with Robert Schwartzberg, one of the smartest market researchers around. Robert sees risks out there, but opportunities abound.
43:10
June 5, 2018
Things Went a Little Pear Shaped
Welcome to the FarrCast! It has been a big start to the week, and Kenny Polcari joins Michael to talk about the 400 point drop on the Dow and the strong rally in bonds. Is there anything to worry about? Or is this just more of the volatility that Kenny and Michael have been warning about since December (before the volatility began.) Spygate and the deep state and name calling over North Korea -- and then it suddenly goes quiet. Dan Mahaffee parses what is going on in DC this week. Amidst all of the noise, there is important signal that will impact the economy moving forward. Lester Munson joins Michael to help us sort out the international situation, and there is a lot to sort -- Spain and Italy both facing new elections, the N. Korea summit might be back on, and ongoing developments in Iran and China. The headlines are changing fast, and Lester helps keep our eyes on the long term trends. It's the FarrCast! Listen now so you can have a better idea of what might happen next.
42:10
May 29, 2018
This Sounds Like a Third Grade Spat
It's another great FarrCast! Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio from Chicago Mercantile Exchange to talk markets. Are the markets worried about trade? Maybe a little-- but the big story is interest rates. Does the economy have enough momentum to thrive in the rising rate environment? DC is the gift that keeps giving and Dan Mahaffee is back to guide us through the dysfunction. The House fails to pass a Farm Bill; this could be harbinger of things to come. And could have economic ramifications. Dan and Michael go through some of the names they are watching in the spring -- and ones you should too. John Kehoe joins Michael to talk trade, China, and N. Korea. It's a trade cease-fire this week. John goes into the deep structural issues that exist in Sino-American relations that are being glazed over. Political issues have real economic impacts beyond daily noise. But John sees the Fed as the biggest issue facing the economy.
42:43
May 22, 2018
I Was Told There Would Be No Math
Kenny Polcari on the markets -- we've broken resistance, what next? Clayton Allen gives us a deep dive into NAFTA, Iran, and international trade. Dan Mahaffee connects the threads. We've been all over the place in the markets. We have a 3.1% ten-year, and an ever stronger dollar. Kenny Polcari tells us where the market is, and what the markets are trying to figure out. The pieces are in place for the markets to rise -- as long as inflation is steady and slow.  Clayton Allen from Height Analytics joins us to give insight into NAFTA -- we are crashing into Paul Ryan's deadline for a deal. Clayton explains why there is a deadline (it's not just politics.) Clayton's expertise in trade includes energy, and he gives us a primer on why the Iran deal impacts the oil market well beyond Iran.  Dan Mahaffee, Director of Policy for the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress joins Michael and connects the threads between politics, technology, and trade. For deep understanding of the forces shaping the economy of the future, listen to the experts on the FarrCast. Download now!
41:33
May 16, 2018
Much Older Than I Am of Course
The markets have bounced!  Kenny Polcari tells us where the next level of resistance is -- and where the market goes if resistance breaks. Michael and Kenny discuss what the technical indicators are telling us, but looking at the fundamentals, they really haven't changed as the markets are whipsawing back and forth. And the fundamentals are good. Matt Leffingwell calls in from Capitol Hill this week, and talks foreign policy. The Korea situation seems to be moving positively, but the US pulling out of the Iranian deal has impacts across the world -- and across the markets.  We talk about the markets and the blue chips on the FarrCast, but what are the markets like for the micro-cap companies. Michael welcomes Christopher Cuesta, CEO of TBH, a specialist in small and micro-caps. There are opportunities, but risks too. Chris takes us through what kind of management, and story he looks for. It's the FarrCast! Download, listen and subscribe today.
38:43
May 9, 2018
The devil's in the details
Big moves in the market! But Kenny Polcari tells us why the move down wasn't anything to sweat -- and why the bounce up might not go very high. Matt Leffingwell joins from Capitol Hill -- literally. There is news from both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue and Matt catches us up. Matt told us last week that Gen. Kelly's star was waning, and this week the news has shown that to be the case. Listen in to find out what the thoughts are on the Hill about the Mueller investigation and the new leaks. For our special guest, Michael welcomes Robert Ourisman of the Ourisman Automotive Group. We've heard about monetary policy, interest rates, and big economic ideas -- Robert tells us what the numbers mean where the rubber meets the road. Literally. Tune in, listen, learn (and maybe have a laugh while you do!) It's the FarrCast!
40:41
May 1, 2018
It's a rollercoaster ride (The Birthday Show)
Treasuries cross 3%! Dow tumbles 450 points! Caterpillar raises the spectre of "peak earnings." Is it panic on Wall Street? Kenny Polcari joins us to say it's ugly, it's uncomfortable, but it's not panic. The markets are testing technical levels and the whipsaw movements are part of the modern automated markets. Michael and Kenny talk about what the fundamentals are, and separate the noise from the signal investors need to be thinking about. Washington is the gift that just keeps giving. Matt Leffingwell gives us the insider's insight in to the waning of Gen. Kelly's influence -- and who's star is rising in The West Wing. The midterms are six months away -- what are the thoughts from The Hill on how the House and Senate are shaping up for the next Congress. Confused about the geo-politics of oil? Michael welcomes the leading energy policy expert on Capitol Hill, Daryl Owen. Daryl explains how the Iran deal and the markets influence how the Saudis manipulate production. Rising wages are beginning to impact the potential of US producers. The FarrCast is here to bring all the loose threads together. Download and listen today!
40:11
April 24, 2018
Love, Tom
Are the markets starting to break out? What signal do investors need to listen to through the noise? Mike Pompeo is the new sheriff in town, find out why! It's the FarrCast! Tune and in and get the inside information. Kenny Polcari joins the FarrCast tonight to explain the changing terrain of the markets. Fundamentals are strong, and markets found technical support and broke through resistance. There is a canary in the gold mine though -- Kenny and Michael talk about what the canary is telling us. Is there still room to run on the upside? Tom Heath joins Michael from The Washington Post -- corporations are awash in cash. What do buybacks mean for the retail investor? What does the average investor need to be paying attention to? What do they need to ignore? Andy Keiser, Senior Advisor for the National Security Institute at George Mason University joins for the third segment to talk geo-politics, economics, and what's going on inside the beltway, and on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
42:31
April 17, 2018
Saturday Night Massacre??
Markets Rally! Trade Talks Progress! But if the rumor you'll hear tonight on the FarrCast is true -- EVERYTHING is about to change. The FarrCast is back! And it's an interesting week to be back. Our special guest is the Hon. Glenn Nye, President of the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress. Congressman Nye gives us a historical and political perspective on the trade negotiations with China, NAFTA, and thoughts on how TPP could still be a plus.  Teddy Weisberg joins Michael to talk about the wild swings in the market. Teddy is the President of Seaport Securities, and is the expert's expert, earning the nickname "The Mayor of Wall Street." Is the market adapting to the "new normal" of volatility and the unorthodox approach of the Trump administration?  Matt Leffingwell returns this week to catch us up on DC. What will the response be to the latest atrocities in Syria? What do we learn (and not learn) from Zuckerberg's testimony on The Hill? What is the latest from the Mueller investigation? Matt shares the latest rumors from the cloakrooms and hallways on The Hill -- listen in to what is coming on Saturday!
41:29
April 10, 2018
Stormy Weather (and then some Sunshine)
The Markets had their worst week in years, then a powerful rally, and the bluster from Washington increases. But the bluster seems to have produced some movement on trade and Markets turned positive to begin the week. Listen in to the FarrCast to get your bearings on the bounces in the markets. Kenny Polcari says we'll see resistance when the S&P 500 hits 2690 and then it will churn. If we continue to make progress resolving trade disputes, we'll go through to new highs, but if not, we'll test the lows again. John Kehoe from The Australian Financial Review joins Michael for talk on politics and economics. The debt situation in the US is worrying for future growth, but business around the world looks at US tax reform favorably -- and other nations are looking at following suit. Download and listen today!
44:28
March 26, 2018
The Legal Side of Washington
Welcome to the FarrCast! Today we talk the legal side of Washington. Legal issues take up more and more air out of the news cycle, and could be shaking the markets. Michael welcomes long time litigator Charles Molster, who is the lawyer's lawyer, and gives his insight into the Mueller investigation and what might happen next. But first, Jack Bouroudjian tells us how this market is different from those in the past. Volatility is the new norm, and there are risks out there. Michael and Jack discuss rotations, and how the markets move faster than ever. Next up Chris Cillizza, who covers Washington politics for CNN, lays out the facts as we know them right now. Michael gives Chris quick fire questions to catch us up on the facts behind rumors in DC. Listen in and subscribe today!
46:02
March 20, 2018
Episode 22
It's a special National Security Edition of the FarrCast! This week Michael welcomes Lt. Gen. Daniel Christman, USArmy (Ret.) as his special guest. General Christman began his military career graduating first in the class of 1965 at the US Military Academy, West Point. He finished his Army career as a three-star general, with a combat command in Vietnam, assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and five years as the superintendent at West Point during his storied career. He shares with us his deep understanding of Washington, of diplomacy, and of the world at large, and we are thrilled to learn from him. The dashingly handsome Kenny Polcari is out dashing this week, but don't fret! Michael talks the markets with Teddy Weisberg. Teddy is the expert's expert, and there is a reason he's earned the nickname, "The Mayor of Wall Street." Teddy tells how this market is different from the past, and how to navigate the new normal. Matt Leffingwell (who said last week Larry Kudlow would be a front runner for NEC) talks about the change at Department of State, and how the Trump White House works. Matt says that we will have a budget bill soon.  All this and more on the FarrCast. Tune in, download, and subscribe today!
45:45
March 14, 2018
Episode 21
Washington is rocked as Gary Cohn resigns! Will markets shudder too? Tariff arguments are pitting the GOP against itself! How will it affect companies and workers on the factory floor? There is a lot to move the markets. We have the experts, Kenny Polcari, Matt Leffingwell, and a special guest from the steel industry, Craig Bram, CEO of Synalloy Corporation, to help our listeners sort it out.  Polcari says markets will be nervous about Cohn's departure, and more volatility is likely to be injected into the markets. Leffingwell says the Republicans are furious about the tariffs, and Cohn's departure leaves the White House with fewer experts. Craig Bram talks about what the tariffs mean for a specialty producer, and why a targeted tariff would be a boon for the industry and for Synalloy. Listen to the FarrCast and learn what the news is on Wall Street, in DC, and in industry. How will they three collide, and importantly: what does it mean for the economy, the markets, and your money?
45:06
March 7, 2018
Episode 20
Jerome Powell has his first biannual testimony on the Hill, and here on the FarrCast we have a fantastic guest to guide us through -- former Federal Reserve Governor Mark Olson. Michael, Kenny Polcari, and Mark Olson talk about the opening of the Powell era, a Fed Chair who pays attention to the markets, but understands the markets are NOT the economy. Markets have been up and down since the correction, mostly up -- is the correction over? Matt Leffingwell joins Michael for second segment. It's a big week in Washington -- in addition to a new Fed Chair, the Mueller investigation has new twists and turns with the Gates guilty plea. Jared Kushner still doesn't have security clearance, and Matt explains what that means politically and practically. Listen in, learn (and maybe have a laugh along the way!) Download and subscribe today!
42:17
February 28, 2018
Episode 19
It's another week and another fabulous FarrCast. On the FarrCast, we believe that emotion is the enemy of the long term investor, and it has been an emotional month in the Markets. Kenny Polcari joins Michael and tells why he thinks the correction was too quick, and the markets are still under pressure. Matt Leffingwell joins us to catch up on what is going on in Washington. Congress is in recess, but the Administration sideshow continues -- Matt picks out what could be serious and what are just distractions. The FarrCast special guest tonight in Dr. Albert Simmonds, and Michael discusses another third-rail issue in American politics-- the economics of healthcare. No one wants cut-rate service for healthcare, and the pressures put on doctors to managed care increases costs. As the population ages, more and more of the nation's GDP is devoted to entitlements and puts even more structural pressure on the system. There aren't simple solutions, and on the FarrCast, we look at the granular, complex questions. Listen in, download, and subscribe today!
42:19
February 21, 2018
Episode 18
It's been a wild week in the markets, but tune in to the FarrCast, and it all makes sense! Michael and regular Kenny Polcari help discern the signal from the noise. The markets tested technical support levels, and Kenny tells us that it's not over-- more churn is to come. We have another great guest on the FarrCast -- from The Australian Financial Review, correspondent John Kehoe. John gives us deep insight not only into the foreign perspective on American politics, but also the American economy. The corporate tax reform in the US has placed pressure in other economies as they compete for capital. John also gives us a deeper understanding of the complexities of trade policy across the Pacific Rim. It's not just the markets that have been wild, but DC as well. There's been another government shutdown (that was over the next morning) and now (maybe) a budget deal. We talk about fiscal (non)discipline, and the economic implications of the horse trading going on.   Listen in, download, and subscribe today!
48:18
February 14, 2018
Episode 17
The Dow is down over 1000 for the second time in a week - what does it mean for you? Michael talks about that with Kenny Polcari, as well as what we should expect from the Market in the coming days and weeks. Plus : The Budget Busting Congress! Michael discusses the budget negotiations with political insider Matt Leffingwell, and how that will impact Wall Street, and Main Street.
32:50
February 8, 2018
Episode 16
On this special edition of the FarrCast, Michael talks about the bad week that Wall Street just had, what this correction means, and what to expect in the markets next week.
23:42
February 3, 2018
Episode 15
Welcome to FarrCast! The markets moved down, but there wasn't panic. Kenny Polcari joins Michael and talks about the variables that are playing on the markets, and the return of volatility. If you've been listening to FarrCast, you wouldn't be panicking either. Kenny and Michael look forward so you won't be surprised at what comes next. The upcoming Treasury refunding will be a harbinger of what is to come. Matt Leffingwell comes to us from The Hill and looks at what State of the Union will bring if we see the Teleprompter President as expected, or if he goes off script and we see the Twitter President. The government is still working without a budget, and we are on our fourth Continuing Resolution. Michael and Matt are joined by Don Mooers, immigration attorney and former Congressional candidate. Matt gives his insight for a fifth (and sixth!) Infrastructure is on everyone's radar, but what are the chances of passage, and what will it mean for the economy? They discuss not only immigration, growth, and the economy, but what it means for the future of the United States. Listen in, download and subscribe today!
56:16
January 31, 2018
Episode 14
It's another great episode of the FarrCast! Michael is joined by The Washington Post's Thomas Heath for this week's show and we get to the nuts and bolts of what is going on in the markets. Kenny Polcari explains the (non-)reaction of Wall Street to the shutdown, and the reaction when the shutdown ended.  Matt Leffingwell joins Michael and Tom and explains how the government shutdown has weakened the Democrats' hand in Congress. The Republicans appear to have their act together -- but until the debt limit comes up, do the markets care? What really affects economic activity, and Americans' pocketbooks? What does it all mean for the economy? What does it mean for the markets? We talk about entitlements, the debt, long-term growth, and more. Download and subscribe today!
57:01
January 24, 2018
FarrCast Episode 13
Volatility has returned to the markets, the dollar is getting weaker, and commodities are getting stronger. Michael and Kenny Polcari talk about what is changing, and what is next. The economic news is good and the early reporting earnings are good, but reversals are part of the markets, and spikes up and down should be expected. Michael is joined by our regular political analyst Matt Leffingwell, as well as Time Magazine correspondent Molly Ball. Matt and Molly give us great insight into the negotiations on The Hill to avoid a government shutdown. Has Congress learned anything from past shutdowns? Is Congress capable of learning anything? As immigration and the shutdown are debated, what are the economic implications, and who will the voters hold responsible if there is no deal?
54:11
January 19, 2018
FarrCast Episode 12
It's the beginning of the year, and the markets are melting up. Michael and regular Kenny Polcari discuss how the fundamentals and the technicals interact, and where the momentum is taking us. The central banks around the world are gradually changing their policies, and Michael & Kenny explain what changes could bring to the markets. For all of the numbers, fear is the enemy of the long-term investor.   Matt Leffingwell joins to talk about the week on the Hill -- and the possibility of compromise on DACA. Congress, both parties, are using the Dreamers as a political point, but immigration has deep implications for the economy. It's not just politics -- it's math. Michael welcomes Niloo Howe to the FarrCast, who explains to us how the social norms, and lack thereof, on the Internet feed the emerging threats in cybersecurity. Security has been an afterthought as we seek faster computers and more convenience and that means we are vulnerable. Niloo points out though that the human element is always the weakest element, and talks about what to do when, not if, you are breached.
1:00:44
January 11, 2018
FarrCast Episode 11
It's a New Year, is it a new market? Not yet -- the bull is still stampeding. On the latest FarrCast episode, Michael and Kenny talk about the milestones the market is crossing: Nasdaq 7000, S&P500 2700, and Dow 25,000. Kenny explains algorithm trading and how it has changed the market -- and the dangers it presents. In the second segment, Matt Leffingwell comes in and makes some sense out of what is happening in Washington -- and gives his personal insight into journalist Michael Wolff.   For the third segment, Michael and Matt welcome Meghan O'Donnell Bell, chief of staff for Congressman Hal Rogers. Meghan is the expert's expert on the opioid epidemic, and what it costs the economy in long-term growth. Stream now or subscribe to the FarrCast for deep insight into Wall Street, Capitol Hill, and how their collision effects Main Street.
54:39
January 4, 2018
FarrCast Episode 10
Michael Farr wishes everyone Happy Holidays and presents his top ten stock picks for 2018 - stocks he believs in so much, that he himself will be buying them in the coming year!
28:15
December 26, 2017
FarrCast Episode 9
On this week’s Farrcast... Kenny Polcari explains the rotation to value, the stupid Apple call, and why he expects a correction in Q1. Matt Leffingwell eats crow over the new tax bill and explains what changed in DC that made it possible. Congressman Jon explains Washington’s “politics of disruptive “ and what can be done about it. Plus a November 2018 prediction for republicans staying in the majority in both the House and Senate! PLUS. Added bonus Farr’s Top Ten Stocks for 2018!!! Next time on the Farrcast.
53:06
December 20, 2017
FarrCast Episode 8
Another great episode of The FarrCast this week. Michael talks with Kenny Polcari about the recent market rotations, valuations, expectations, corrections . . . and rigatoni with sweet sausage. As always, Kenny gives a great insight into what to look for in market trends as they occur. Regular Matt Leffingwell joins Michael to talk about the latest from the Hill. Tax reform looks more likely, but there are still big hurdles. The Mueller investigation still has a long way to run. Finally, Matt shares the latest rumors from the Hill: Speaker Ryan is said to be contemplating dropping a huge bombshell that could change the culture of the House, and have deep political ramifications in 2018. For the last segment of The FarrCast Michael welcomes Southern Company Senior Vice President Bryan Anderson. Bryan takes us through one of the "loopholes" in taxation . . . and shows how it benefits America. Always engaging, The FarrCast brings you insight on the markets from a Washington perspective -- learning where policy and investment strategy collide. Tune in and subscribe today.
55:19
December 13, 2017
FarrCast Episode 7
We are back from Thanksgiving and what a week in Washington! Tax reform continues to make its way towards some sort of legislation, and the markets are beginning to react to the specific proposals. Michael and political analyst Matt Leffingwell discuss what is happening on the Hill, in the markets, and where they collide. In the second segment, Michael is joined by Washington Post financial reporter Thomas Heath. Tom talks about what he has learned as a financial reporter, and tells us his investment discipline.   The end of this year sees changes that will have real effects on the markets now, tomorrow, and years to come. Tune in and gain perspective on what the news means.
45:40
December 6, 2017
FarrCast Episode 6
On this week’s FarrCast we are again touching third rails of American politics. This week we talk about trade. What’s wrong with protectionism? Our guest Tony Fratto explains how the protectionist bent is harmful to the economy – and ultimately to your pocketbook. Matt Leffingwell talks about Roy Moore and Jeff Sessions. “I forgot” is now the catch phrase to get yourself out it trouble it seems. Will the Congress forget to pass any meaningful legislation as they play politics, though? As always, Kenny Polcari kicks things off with a lively discussion of what to watch for in the markets, and technical trends that are important, but not necessarily obvious.   Michael Farr dives in and gives you information to better understand Washington, Wall Street, Main Street, and the intersections of all three. And we always have a little fun along the way. Listen in, or subscribe and download today!
54:10
November 15, 2017
Episode 5
On this week's FarrCast, Michael explains the yield curve, and Kenny tells us why the markets might not be as robust as the indexes might make you think. Kenny stays on for the second segment as Michael welcomes guest Becky Tallent, former staffer for both John Boehner and John McCain. Along with regular Matt Leffingwell, they make sense of the developments in Washington and what comes next -- and what it means for the markets. In her career on the Hill, Becky became an expert on immigration policy, and she explains how the system is broken, and how it impacts the economy, both today and limiting long-term growth. As ever, the FarrCast brings fun to the discussion and helps you understand what makes the markets move
1:01:03
November 10, 2017
FarrCast Episode 4
This week’s FarrCast is packed with information affecting the markets today (and tomorrow!) Big news out of Washington this week as the the Mueller investigation gets well and truly underway, and it appears the choice has been made for a new Fed Chair Political analyst Matt Leffingwell walks us through what lobbyists do and where Manafort has allegedly fallen afoul. Michael and Matt talk about what happens next in Washington — and how that could change the market. But first up, regular contributor Kenny Polcari of O’Neil Securities joins Michael in a lively discussion about the questions to ask of yourself and your investment advisor when faced with an “expensive market”. The segment finishes with Kenny’s three mistakes in investing. (Avoid those pitfalls!) It’s a show packed with insights to help you understand the markets today.
57:02
November 1, 2017
FarrCast Episode 3
This week on The FarrCast markets, doom, wealth gap, taxes, and more about the markets. 30th years after the 1987 crash, Michael, Doug Kass, and Kenny Polcari -- all on the ground in 1987 -- talk about what happened, and what could happen to the current bull market. History doesn't repeat itself, but it usually rhymes. Today's news from DC injects new uncertainty in the markets. Who will be the new Fed Chair? Can tax reform happen? The Republican Whip is working. Does the market care? Matt Leffingwell gives an insider's view, and Michael & Kenny talk about the future of markets in the face of political turmoil. Finally, Michael welcomes guest Michael Nixon to talk about wealth inequality. Mike Nixon has worked in investment banking, government, and lending. With fewer people holding more of the wealth, what are the long term impacts on the economy -- and how can it be fixed? Michael Farr cares about your money. Listen in and learn how you can take care of yours!
54:50
October 25, 2017
FarrCast Episode 2
This week's FarrCast opens with a discussion with Michael Vogelzang, Chief Investment Officer of Boston Advisors, LLC, an investment firm with over $5 billion in assets under management. Michael and Michael talk about the direction of the market and if it's time to get out. Regular Matt Leffingwell joins Michale discussing the latest rumblings from DC and what it means to the market. Does tax reform have a chance of being passed, and does the market even care anymore? Kristina Saunders, Senior VP of Farr, Miller & Washington gives her perspective as a portfolio manager. Finally, Michael speak with Jamere Morrow from Symantec Corporation, an expert on cyber security and cyber currencies as Jamere explains Bitcoin in a way we can all begin to understand. Download and enjoy the discussion (and maybe learn a little) on this week's FarrCast!
57:59
October 10, 2017
The FarrCast Episode 1
In his debut show, Michael begins by talking to Kenny Polcari - the Managing Director at O'Neil Securities Inc - about the latest market trends, and then he talks to Matt Leffingwell - the former head staffer on Ways and Means - about the current administration and it's impact on the market, and also with Gretchen Zierolf - a Senior Vice President and portfolio manager at Farr, Miller and Washington and her client "Phil from Albquerque" about sound investing strategies.
55:57
October 5, 2017