The FarrCast : Wealth Strategies
By Michael Farr
Welcome to the FarrCast, hosted by Michael Farr, Chief Market Strategist of Hightower Advisors and President and CEO of Washington DC wealth management firm, Farr, Miller & Washington. Each week Michael will have guests with insights into economics, policy, finance, and the intersections between them all. Listen in not just for analysis of what has happened, but for the forecast of where the markets are going. Hightower Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Never Confuse Brains With A Bull Market
Markets are wobbly, but the FarrCast keeps steady! This week, Michael Farr talks to fan favorite Kenny Polcari on the markets, political expert Dan Mahaffee on DC, and welcomes back special guest Lester Munson to look at what's going on beneath the headlines in geo-politics. It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
January 13, 2022
The Fed reviews its toolkits and the markets got a little spooked -- but we aren't spooked on the FarrCast! For the opening show of 2022, Michael welcomes guests Jim Iuorio, Dan Mahaffee, and Chief Investment Strategist from Hightower Advisors, Stephanie Link to take a look beyond the headlines on Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
January 06, 2022
Top Ten for 2022!
It's the end of the year -- so it's time for Michael's Top Ten! Each year Michael Farr selects ten stocks from our watchlist that he particularly likes due to valuation or potential to benefit from economic conditions. In the Top Ten episode Michael reviews these companies so the listener can better understand his thinking. Please be aware these are not recommendations to buy or sell, but are examples of the type of deep consideration on a given security. Please be aware that all investment involves risk of loss of principle. Past performance is not a guide to indicator of future results. The FarrCast and Michael Farr's Top Ten list should not be construed as financial or tax advice. We strongly recommend you review with a financial professional before making any investment decision.
December 28, 2021
It's a year end wrap up FarrCast, and Michael Farr shares his best advice for investing (and it works for pretty much everything else in life too!) The future is uncertain -- it's important to know that you don't know. Happy Holidays from all of us at The FarrCast. We are grateful for our listeners, and wish you all of the best as we move into the New Year.
December 23, 2021
It's a Lump of Coal (so blame WV?)
As a tumultuous year winds down, the FarrCast is here to help sort through what's happened on Wall Street, in Washington, and across the World. This week, Michael welcomes special guests Sarat Sethi and Jim Lebenthal for a two- part discussion on what's happened, and what could be over the horizon next.
December 21, 2021
Actually Making Progress! (Not Something You Often Hear in DC . . .)
As the Christmas season approaches, logjams are clearing on Capitol Hill, and crises are being averted. Dan Mahaffee joins Michael Farr to explain what's going on behind the scenes, and where the next crisis may emerge. But first, Michael welcomes the irrepressible Kenny Polcari for a deep dive into the markets. Kenny says Santa has already come -- now the trick is will the markets throw out their presents or hold on? Coming to each week with experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
December 09, 2021
Bonus Edition! -- The Complete Real Estate Segment
Michael Farr's complete conversation with Greg Economos and Frank Saul on the current (and future) state of the real estate market. (Recorded December 2, 2021)
December 09, 2021
Line in the Sand
This week's FarrCast kicks off with Michael Farr and Jim Iuorio analyzing the whipsaws of the markets. Jim tells us that while the pullback is ultimately healthy, there may be a bigger airpocket ahead. Next, Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion of the hectic week in Washington. Congress wants to leave for Christmas, but there is much still on the table. In the special guest segment, Michael takes a look at the real estate market with Greg Economos and Frank Saul. Their experience in single family, multi-family, and commercial real estate and construction helps work through the distortions in the real estate market post-pandemic, and sets the stage for what the economic and investment issues are. Watch for a special bonus edition of the FarrCast this weekend as Michael continues his conversation with Frank and Greg. It's The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
December 03, 2021
Here's the Future!
On this week's FarrCast, Michael Farr has an extended discussion with the ever insightful Jack Bouroudjian. It's a conversation not to be missed as Jack peels back the layers of the new normal, discusses what it's like to be an immigrant to technology, parses the structural changes happening around us -- and gives us insight into how it all impacts the investing landscape. But first, Michael welcomes Kenny Polcari for a discussion on the markets, and why Kenny sees pitfalls in the new year. And Dan Mahaffee gives us the latest from Washington and what the prospects for the BBB bill. It's the FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
November 19, 2021
And Another Thing!
Infrastructure week has come and gone, but all eyes are on inflation numbers. Michael Farr welcomes trader Jim Iuorio to talk about the effects of inflation on the commodities complex; political analyst Dan Mahaffee discusses the political conundrums facing the Biden administration; and Michael's special guest Jenny Harrington talks about longer run investment strategy, plus Jenny shares her insights into the difference between market speculation and investing. Bringing you experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
November 11, 2021
Riot in the Happiest Place on Earth
Welcome to another episode of The FarrCast! This week host Michael Farr starts the show by welcoming Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners. Jim is bullish in the short term and Jim is bullish in the long term -- but he says the path from from short to long could be rough, and patience is a virtue. Next up, Michael is joined by political analyst Dan Mahaffee for a look at the Virginia governor's race, and what it suggests for the midterms. For our special guest segment, Michael welcomes Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, Distinguished Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, and former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Dr. Lacker shares his view of the economic outlook and gives us a hint of what goes on behind the scenes at The Fed. Bringing you experts and insiders -- it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
November 05, 2021
More of a Bleep Than a Blip
This week sees nearly a third of the S&P500 companies deliver their earnings, and we've had some strange days in the equity markets. Have no fear -- Jim Iuorio joins the FarrCast this week to make some sense of the odd moves! As the Democrats come to the wire on the social spending bill, Dan Mahaffee goes through what taxes are likely to make the final bill -- and which aren't. And for this week's special guest, Michael Farr welcomes Bankrate's Mark Hamrick to analyze the GDP and unemployment numbers. Bringing you insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
October 28, 2021
The Cal Ripken Jr. Approach to Politics
Listen in this week as Michael Farr brings you another panel of experts and insiders to talk Wall Street, Washington, and The World. First up is Jim Lebenthal who says the equity markets are easing into another leg up -- but while he's optimistic, he reminds us that normal markets always face risk. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee discusses developments in China that have passed under the radar, and gives his insight into the continuing negotiations on Biden's social spending agenda. He says a deal is in the making. Michael is joined by special guest Lester Munson, whose insight into the intersection of diplomacy and politics has made him a Farr Cast fan favorite. Les gives an honest assessment of the stumbles, and strengths, of the Biden Administration's foreign policy, and the important issues they face next.
October 21, 2021
Earnings season starts, and The FarrCast is here helping you see through the headlines! This week's show begins with a discussion with Kenny Polcari on the numbers, housing issues, and Don Ho. (It will all make sense when you hear it!) Michael then welcomes political analyst Dan Mahaffee and he finds a silver lining in the latest political turmoil -- Congress may actually have to begin to discuss the substance of policy proposals. For our special guest segment, Michael is joined by Dr. Jay Bryson, Chief Economist from Wells Fargo. Jay has long been a FarrCast fan favorite, explaining esoteric market jargon in ways investors understand. He explains why inflation is a concern, but there are good reasons to think it will subside. Bringing you experts and insiders -- it's The FarrCast!
October 14, 2021
Devil Is in the Details
The noise from Washington has been deafening on Wall Street and across the World -- and the FarrCast is here to help you sort through it all. Michael Farr welcomes Jim Iuorio and he tells why he thinks the correction, shallow though it is, might not be done. He shares his targets, and great advice on keeping discipline whether you are a short-term trader, or long-term investor. Dan Mahaffee joins to explain the latest horse trading and what the next step in DC dealmaking will become. Though the heat is off for now, the debt ceiling madness has only been kicked down the road, not solved. Michael's special guest this week is Liz Young of SoFi Investments, and goes into detail on why she expects more modest returns in 2023 -- but reminds us "okay" returns are, in fact, okay. She gives great insights into the notion of transient inflation, and what investors need to look for in transitions to find opportunities, as well as identify threats. The FarrCast comes to you every week with insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- Listen today!
October 07, 2021
Kabuki Theater of Crisis
The fights on Capitol Hill are widening, and effecting more and more of the economy. On this week's FarrCast, Michael Farr welcomes Greg Valliere of AGF Investments, and the consumate inside analyst to explain what headlines are just noise -- and what is going on behind the scenes that can hurt investors (and the broader economy.) While an agreement appears to be in place to keep government open, the debt ceiling changes everything, and the various factions within both parties are from agreement. But first, Michael welcomes Kenny Polcari to talk about what's worrying the markets at the moment: Kenny says the stock market isn't worried about the debt ceiling yet, but the continuing trifecta of inflation, rising interest rates, and the impending Federal Reserve taper. Dan Mahaffee joins to provide insight into the negotiations (and lack thereof) in Washington. Taking a deep look beyond the headlines, this week's FarrCast looks at the debt ceiling and its impact on Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
September 30, 2021
Season Five! Can you believe it? The FarrCast kicks off its fifth season with Jim Lebenthal, Dan Mahaffee, and special guest, Stephanie Link. Bringing you insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- this week Michael and guests talk about the market pullback: is it a harbinger of future trouble, or a buying opportunity? The latest on China: is the world financial system in trouble? And as always, how to make sense of the world as an investor. Join Michael and guests today!
September 23, 2021
The Pendulum Swings Back
On the final summer FarrCast episode, Michael Farr and Dan Mahaffee take a look beyond the headlines at China. The CCP has made a calculation that money is more important to western democracies than principles, but the tables have turned and many of the same questions are now being asked of China. But first, Michael welcomes Kenny Polcari for a discussion on the softness of the markets this week, and why no one should be surprised at seasonal volatility. Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
September 09, 2021
I Never Stop Hand Wringing
We've made it to September, and the FarrCast is bringing you another special before we begin Season Five later in September. Michael Farr welcomes Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners and CNBC for a discussion on market. Jim reminds us as the markets climb to new highs: don't confuse a bull market with brains. Investing may seem easy now, but it's not. For the second segment, Michael is joined by our regular political analyst, Dan Mahaffee, who breaks down last night's Supreme Court non-decision on the Texas law that creates a new civil vigilante reward system, and what some of the implications are for American politics and the American judiciary. For our special segment, we welcome Joshua Huminski, a defense and security expert, to analyze the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. Josh tells us that while the American pullout and subsequent collapse of the Afghani government is a black eye, it would be serious miscalculation to interpret that as a decline of US capabilities. Continuing to bring you insight on Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
September 02, 2021
It's Xi-way or the Highway
In another summer edition of The FarrCast, Michael Farr shares what he's watching on Wall Street, Washington, and The World. Listen and share with a friend!
August 26, 2021
What Is the Stop Digging Plan?
August is supposed to be the month the headlines slowdown -- but we always keep an eye on them on the FarrCast and this week bring a special summer episode with Dan Mahaffee and Jim Lebenthal. Michael Farr discusses the political impact of the Afghanistan debacle with Dan, and what that impact could mean to the Biden domestic policy agenda moving ahead. Michael and Dan segue to China, the second largest economy in the world: will market forces send a message that the CCP can't ignore? Michael then welcomes Jim Lebenthal for a wide ranging discussion of the markets and economy. Jim details the supply chain issues impacting the economy, but he doesn't see demand destruction, and ultimately no existential risk. It's a summer FarrCast you can't miss! The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
August 19, 2021
You Must Be Present to Win
It's another great FarrCast this week, beginning with our great friend, Kenny Polcari. Michael and Kenny discuss the market getting "tired" and expect a wobble in the fall. The bull market should continue, but keep some powder dry as bargains appear. For our dive into Washington, Michael welcomes Lester Munson this week to explain what the Senate vote on infrastructure is, and isn't, and why he's hopeful a package is passed in September. In our special guest segment, Michael is joined by Liz Young, Head of Investment Strategy from SoFi. You've seen her on CNBC, and on the FarrCast she has time to explain more of what she's looking for in the coming months as the economy transitions from rebound to recovery. Her insight is not to be missed! Always bringing you a deeper look at Wall Street, Washington, and The World, it's The FarrCast!
July 29, 2021
Be the Dog Walker, Not the Dog
The FarrCast comes to you with an abbreviated edition this week, but still an episode packed with insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World. Michael Farr begins with a state of the markets, and they are pretty good, in spite of Monday's sell-off. The rumors of the end of the world proved to be exaggerated. Dan Mahaffee joins with insight on the standoff in the Senate on the infrastructure bill, and tells us that the bill is still alive, and passage still likely -- just not quite yet. In the third segment, Michael is joined by Jim Lebenthal who gives advice for investors on how to endure the downsides so you can enjoy the upsides. Listen and share with a friend! It's The FarrCast!
July 22, 2021
Bonus Segment! With Tony Fratto
Sometimes conversations go over time, but they are too good not to share! Listen to the bonus segment with Michael Farr and special guest, Tony Fratto.
July 19, 2021
Managing the Chorus
The summer continues and markets keep inching upwards. Listen to the FarrCast for what is appearing on the horizon! Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari to talk markets and Kenny says the Fed has done a remarkable job managing the shock to the economy so far -- and it never pays to fight the Fed. He expects seasonal weakness, but the economy is rebuilding and the markets will ultimately reflect that. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins for a lightning round of all of the topics flying around DC. It may be summer, but it's certainly not slow. For our special guest, Michael is joined by Tony Fratto, an insider's insider with deep knowledge of Washington and how policy impacts the world outside of the beltway. Tony talks inflation, the disruptions in supply, and our return to a new normal. Always bringing you information you can use, it's The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
July 15, 2021
We hope you enjoy this episode as much as we enjoyed making it -- we truly believe this is one of our best! Michael Farr begins by welcoming Jim Lebenthal who gives us sage counsel on navigating the emotional pulls of the market. He reminds us that corrections always come, and when we are in a correction, it always feels like something much worse. Dan Mahaffee joins for a rundown of the latest from China. Dan tells us the Communist Party's crackdown on capital markets isn't about capital at all -- it's about data, and how that data can be used for societal control. In our third segment, Michael welcomes Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, Distinguished Professor of Economics at VCU and Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Michael and Jeff have a wide ranging conversation on the economy, monetary policy, and importantly, what we don't know. Dr. Lacker points out that it's still not obvious what "normal" we are moving back towards. Listen to the FarrCast for insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
July 08, 2021
What You're Saying Makes Sense, But . . .
The first half of 2021 comes to a close with markets up and the economy reopens. Michael Farr welcomes Jim Iuorio, Dan Mahaffee, and special guest Mark Hamrick to review what we've seen, and preview what is likely to come. The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
June 30, 2021
What Were You Thinking?
Markets continue to flirt with all time highs this summer as the US restarts from the pandemic. This week Michael welcomes special guest Stephanie Link for a talk about the Goldilocks market -- and what can upset it. Stephanie has said on CNBC that some inflation will be transitory, where some won't and she goes into more detail about where she sees sticky inflation, and why passing peak growth doesn't mean a quick drop. Dan Mahaffee takes us beyond the headlines in DC and the world. What's happening in Hong Kong now isn't making too many headlines, but it fundamentally changes the business landscape in Asia. Coming to you every week with insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
June 24, 2021
Bricks in the Wall of Worry
The Fed meeting has come and Jerome Powell says they are now "talking about talking about" tapering and the eventual raising of rates. What does it mean for the investing landscape? Listen to the FarrCast as Michael Farr speaks with experts on Wall Street (Jim Lebenthal, who says you have to stay invested), Washington (Dan Mahaffee, who tells us the timeline for policy changes), and The World (special guest Mona Mahajan, Chief US Strategist for Allianz GI, who says the Fed is getting it right -- so far.)
June 17, 2021
There's Always Something to Buy
On this week's episode, Michael Farr welcomes special guest Jenny Harrington for a discussion of how to buy in a market at all time highs. It's easy to buy low and sell high -- but when stocks are expensive to begin with, buying high and selling higher is tricky (but not impossible!) But first, Michael begins the show with Kenny Polcari and a look at markets facing rising inflation, but piles of cash on the sidelines. And political analyst Dan Mahaffee outlines what could be the nightmare summer for both the Dems and GOP. Bringing you insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
June 10, 2021
The summer doldrums have come to the markets, but does it mean it's time to sell and wait? Michael Farr welcomes Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange who says he remains constructive on the markets as the recovery continues. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins to discuss the latest news from the MidEast. Is Netanyahu's dominance of Israeli politics coming to an end? Plus, he and Michael discuss who may be the most powerful person in the US Senate -- and it's not Joe Manchin. For our special guest segment, Michael welcomes back Dr. Jay Bryson, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo. Jay lays out the case for the growing strength of the economy. Headwinds abound, but Jay still believes the most likely path is sustained growth. Studying the crosswinds impacting the investing landscape from Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
June 03, 2021
Don't Lead with the Opinion
The markets are beginning to hit the summer doldrums, but that's not a time for investor complacency! Michael Farr welcomes guest Jim Lebenthal of CNBC and Cerity Partners for a dive into the markets. Jim says the markets can expect some choppiness, but he expects another leg up before the end of the year that will reward the patient investor. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins for a look at DC politics, and the policy compromises that are likely to be made. He sees three trains coming down the track but the Congress may only have room for one. In our special guest segment, Michael welcomes Robert Frick, Corporate Economist from Navy Federal Credit Union. Bob says the economic puzzle is 90% complete, but it will take a long time, and there will be some pain, in finishing the last 10%. He also says that in spite of the ongoing economic distortions caused by the pandemic, never underestimate the resilience of the US economy.
May 27, 2021
Sending Cryptic Messages
This week has seen volatility continue, and wild swings in cryptocurrencies. Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari for a dive into what's going on in the markets. Kenny says the choppiness is likely to continue, and he's not worried -- but you have to do your homework. Process is boring, but boring can yield results. Dan Mahaffee joins Michael for a discussion of the state of the GOP organization. Dan says Biden still has a lot of triangulation within his own party, and as the rhetorical temperature heats up. In the third segment, Michael delivers one of his periodic audio essays. This week, Michael invites listeners to think like an investor and shares some of his rules on investing. The amount of information in the markets can be overwhelming; Michael shares a method of sorting between news and noise so that the individual investor can be whelmed instead of overwhelmed. Always here for you with information you need, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
May 20, 2021
Potential to Spook the Herd
This week on The FarrCast, Michael Farr welcomes special guest Andy Keiser for a dive into cybersecurity, and the big picture implications of the Colonial Pipeline hack. As we've seen this week, cyber risk is a national security risk -- but it's a business risk as well. First up though, Michael welcomes top trader and regular guest Jim Iuorio. The markets reacted badly to the inflation data this week, but Jim tells us that inflation isn't really what the markets are worried about, but what the Fed might do in response to inflation. Plus, our weekly look into DC politics and its impact on policy from Dan Mahaffee. Always bringing you the information you need from Wall Street, Washington, and The World, it's The FarrCast!
May 13, 2021
The Price of a Dalliance on Wall Street
After some choppiness, the Dow reached new highs this week -- Michael Farr and his guests are here to divine what may be ahead! First up is Jim Lebenthal who reminds us that the second year of a recovery is usually harder in the stock market than the first, and that more choppiness is normal. Michael and Jim talk about how some companies are shifting their outlooks, and what it can mean for the long term investor. Next, Michael is joined by political analyst Dan Mahaffee who points out similar changes in national economic policy to better insulate against the kinds of supply shocks we saw (and are still seeing!) as a result of the pandemic. "Minimum resilient capacity" is a phrase you might begin to hear more. Finally, Michael welcomes special guest Stephanie Link. In February on The FarrCast she forecast the change in market leadership we have seen continuing. Stephanie talks about pricing power, and what it means in the changing calculus for investors. With the brightest minds from Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
May 06, 2021
You Don't Get a Hangover While You're Still Drinking
President Biden and Fed Chair Jay Powell delivered important speeches this week, and Michael Farr turns to the ever-insightful (and truly nice guy) Jack Bouroudjian to help explain how the economy, and investing landscape, are evolving. Jack helps explain why the Fed isn't as worried about inflation as some might think -- at the end of the day we know how to fight inflation, but deflation isn't as easily solved. But first, Michael is joined by the ever-ebullient Kenny Polcari. Who gets excited about the dollar and foreign currency fluctuations? Kenny Polcari does! And we are joined by our usual and ever-perceptive Dan Mahaffee, who lays out the politics behind the shifts in The White House, on The Hill, and at The Fed. It's another great FarrCast with some of the best minds on Wall Street, Washington, and The World! Listen today!
April 29, 2021
Blue Meat for the Base
The FarrCast this week comes to you recorded as news was leaked about the new Biden capital gains tax proposal. Kenny Polcari joins Michael Farr to parse the market (over-) reaction. Kenny says he doesn't think it's the beginning of a correction, but if there is anything markets hate -- it's uncertainty. Dan Mahaffee gives his insight into the political strategy involved, and the (low) chances of passage. As a matter of policy, the actual revenue predicted to be raised by the increase is little more than a rounding error. Michael welcomes Sarat Sethi for the special guest segment. Sarat is one of the smartest, and most successful, investors on Wall Street, and he and Michael discuss where to find value in a market that is, by many measures, already expensive. Sarat also shares his insight into how to prepare for the possibility of inflation, when the inflationary pressures are far different than what we may have seen in the past. Always going beyond the headlines -- it's The FarrCast. Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
April 22, 2021
The Usual Uncertainties
Every time is different -- but the economic landscape is looking more familiar and the uncertainties more recognizable. But that doesn't mean investors can become complacent! This week, Michael Farr is joined by Jim Lebenthal to talk about the beginning of earnings season and Jim says that the bank earnings have broad implications beyond those stocks. There are plenty of long term concerns to watch -- but nothing approaching crisis level (yet.) Political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about the wheeling and dealing in the Senate as well as geo-political tensions, all of which have significance in the economic & investing world. For our special guest, Michael welcomes Jenny Harrington, CEO of Gilman Hill Asset Management and CNBC contributor. Jenny dives in to some of the implications of the earnings that Jim brought up, and says there is plenty of room to make money in different places in the markets, but you have to have the investment discipline to separate the story from the numbers -- and the emotional discipline to follow through. It's a great new FarrCast bringing you insight from Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
April 15, 2021
Moments for Miscalculation
The headlines may have cooled off in recent weeks, but there are mountains of stories impacting Wall Street, Washington, and the World -- and The FarrCast is here to help you sort it out. Michael Farr begins welcoming investor, manager, former floor specialist, and all around nice guy Kenny Polcari for his take on the market. Kenny is optimistic, but admits we've already had a good year, and perhaps this is where the markets finish at Christmas. Our political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins for an update on infrastructure and the what the Chinese digital currency means for investors, and for geo politics. Our special guest this week is a FarrCast fan favorite, Lester Munson, former Chief of Staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Les discusses foreign aid in Central America, Russian sabre rattling in Ukraine, Chinese ambition in the South China Sea, and why Iran wants everyone to think they want a nuclear weapon -- but they really don't. All of the geo-politics bubbling beneath the surface have economic and investing implications, and The FarrCast has the experts and insiders to bring you the knowledge you need. Listen today and share with a friend!
April 09, 2021
Bottoms Are Events -- Tops Are Processes
The first quarter of 2021 is complete and The FarrCast is with you to help you navigate what's next. Michael Farr is joined by Jim Iuorio for a look at the markets. Jim sees the distortions of inflation in the markets, and says that markets are the place to be. The market action of the last couple of days indicates a significant turn to Jim, and he shares what indicators he's looking for, for confirmation. Our political analyst, Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion of the new approach to China and why the competition matters in so many areas of commerce and government. Dan also shares some of the particulars of the infrastructure plan, and an idea of what the final bill will look like. In our special guest segment, Michael welcomes Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners. Doug is one of Wall Street's most successful investor, and even as hedge funds seem to be losing their allure, Doug explains why he's starting a new hedge fund, what kinds of strategies he employs, and where he sees opportunities among the threats. Bringing you experts and insiders from Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
April 01, 2021
The Most Difficult Thing Is to Make the Turn
On this week's FarrCast, we come to you with a slightly different format -- Michael Farr is joined for an extended discussion by both Jim Lebenthal and Steve Weiss from CNBC. Though they have differing strategies, they see the markets in much the same way. Michael, Steve, and Jim have a lively discussion with some arguments, more agreements, and lots to learn. We close the show with an in depth discussion with Dan Mahaffee on the current state in DC and how it may impact the economic landscape. Dan says he doesn't expect tech legislation -- it's hard to legislate on nothing but common dislike. It's the FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
March 26, 2021
Maybe We're Going to Overdo It
It's the day after St. Patrick's Day and the day after Fed Chair Powell says inflation isn't a problem. The FarrCast is here to discuss what happens if maybe we overdo the stimulus a bit -- for overdoing the Guinness & Jameson, you're on your own. First up is Jim Lebenthal from CNBC and Cerity Partners to talk with Michael Farr on what sees in tech, travel, and the other sectors in the markets as we digest the inevitable higher rates of the reopening. Dan Mahaffee discusses DC and the new trade representative, Katherine Tai; everyone in Washington is a fan (she passed her confirmation 98-0) but Beijing is leery of the new counter party to negotiations. And as Michael and Dan discuss, the issues facing Sino-US trade are complex. For our third segment, Michael welcomes long term Washington observer Greg Valliere of AGF Investments. Greg expects another big bill to come from Congress this year, and inflation to rise with employment. It's an information-rich FarrCast this week with experts and insiders that you want to hear. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
March 18, 2021
Ride the Wave
The markets have been choppy, but The FarrCast here is to dive in and help keep your head above water! Michael Farr is joined by Kenny Polcari for a discussion of the markets, and Kenny says the rotation was to be expected as interest rates rise. While the markets were a little spooked by how fast yields rose, they look to be a little more stable now, and Kenny is constructive looking ahead. In DC it may be warming up outside, but the rhetorical temperature has cooled off. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee tells us though it doesn't mean there is nothing of importance going on. He parses through the $1.9tn stimulus package, and some of the big promises it makes. For our special guest segment, we turn to Heather Long of The Washington Post. Heather is one of the smartest people in the economics world, and has written on the distortions in the pandemic economy. The stimulus bill addresses some of the problems she sees, and while we are far from out of the storm, she is less worried than she was. Always bringing you experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
March 11, 2021
Sailing Closer to the Falls
This week on The FarrCast, Michael Farr's special guest is Dr. Jay Bryson, Chief Economist from Wells Fargo. He says that for all of the instability of the economy, the outlook is constructive. The Fed and the Treasury have gone big in their solutions, and thus far, going big has worked. Opening the show, Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio from the floor of the CBOE. From the floor, Jim has a similar outlook to Dr. Bryson in the research halls and boardrooms -- constructive, but wary of threats. Our regular political analyst, Dan Mahaffee, joins us for his segment on the developments in Washington, including vote-a-rama 2 coming soon! It's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
March 08, 2021
This week's episode of The FarrCast opens with Michael Farr talking markets with Kenny Polcari. All of the data is beating expectations, but Kenny reminds us that long term investing isn't haphazard: you can't just buy everything. Michael welcomes Dan Mahaffee for a quick spin through Washington and the policy, and political, arguments that matter. Finally, special guest Stephanie Link joins, and she and Michael have a spirted discussion about investing through the remainder of the year. A diversified portfolio is always important, but Stephanie believes the current rotation is more than just a head fake this time. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
February 25, 2021
Former Fed Pres Sees 2-3% Ten Year On the Horizon
On this week's FarrCast, Michael Farr has an extended discussion with Dr. Jeff Lacker, former President of the Richmond Fed, about the state of debt, the monetary experiment, and what it means for the economy, and markets, moving forward. Dr. Lacker says rates are hard to predict, but 2-3% on the ten-year by the end of the year "isn't out of the ballpark." He gives a clear, plain-spoken explanation of some of the forces at work and while Jeff is skeptical about the current path of monetary policy, maintains disaster is not inevitable. But first, Michael welcomes Jim Lebenthal, and they talk markets -- and how rising rates impacts value -- and Dan Mahaffee discusses the political wrangling over the debt, and why no one on Capitol Hill is too concerned right now. For a deeper understanding of the forces shaping Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- listen to The FarrCast!
February 18, 2021
Keep Your Hands On the Wheel
Flexibility is the key word in this week's episode of The FarrCast. Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari to the show to talk markets, and Kenny talks about the importance of flexibility in your risk management to realize profits. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about the showdown in DC on COVID relief, and the lack of flexibility many GOP members face between the prospects of radical right wing challenges in primaries and moderate Democrats in general elections. In our special guest segment, Michael welcomes back Jenny Harrington, CEO of Gilman Hill, and one of the brightest, clearest voices on Wall Street (and CNBC) today. Jenny and Michael discuss staying flexible in one's economic outlook to avoid emerging threats. It's a great FarrCast this week with a little bit for everyone! The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
February 11, 2021
There's Going to Be a Lot of Asterisks
Michael Farr welcomes Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to give his opinions on the wobble we've seen in the markets. Jim says the technical indicators are telling him that the last few days have shown a consolidation, and he's looking for markets to begin moving upwards again. Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion of the new Congress, and how the reconciliation process the Senate is exploring works. Expect some grandstanding, but Dan says a big stimulus package will work its way through in the next two months. In our special guest segment Michael talks to Robert Frick, Chief Economist from Navy Federal Credit Union. Bob has a front row seat to the K-shaped economy, both the surge of a rebound, and the pain in those left behind. He provides great insight into the two factors holding consumer confidence back, and in both, COVID is king. With you every week with insights into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
February 04, 2021
Sell It For More Than You Paid For It
The political noise has been turned down, but that doesn't mean that all is uneventful on Wall Street, in Washington, or in The World. The FarrCast is here to help discern what's meaningful across the investing landscape! Michael Farr welcomes Jim Lebenthal for a discussion on the markets, including the recent speculation in GameStop and other heavily shorted stocks. It leads to an interesting topic, and one that perhaps isn't discussed enough: how does an investor decide to sell a stock? Dan Mahaffee joins for continued analysis of the early days of the Biden Administration. The is more signaling that substance in the early executive actions, but Dan says the signals being sent are important. For our special guest segment, first time guest Tiffany McGhee of Pivotal Advisors joins the program. Her insight into ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) factors in investing picks up the signaling themes Dan spoke about, and how to think ahead to reveal potential opportunities. It's another great FarrCast -- we hope you'll join us!
January 28, 2021
Can We Vote for Amanda Gorman Now?
The United States has a new President, and we bring you a new FarrCast! Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari to talk about the next step for the markets. Kenny says the markets are frothy, but not a true bubble. He expects a pullback sometime in the first quarter -- which he sees as healthy, and an opportunity. Lester Munson, longtime Capitol Hill insider, joins Michael for a discussion of the agenda for the Biden Administration, and what it could spell for the economy. And Dan Mahaffee talks with Michael about the temperature in Washington coming down. Going beyond the headlines every week, it's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
January 21, 2021
Bubbly Wall St & Washington Boiling Over
In a historic week in Washington, Michael Farr welcomes guests Jim Lebenthal, Dan Mahaffee, and Tony Fratto to the show. Jim says the market is looking through the turmoil, but a correction is becoming more likely (but timing is a fool's game.) Political analyst Dan Mahaffee outlines what the historic second impeachment means to DC politics. And special guest Tony Fratto gives his unique perspective as someone who has worked on The Hill and represented the country across the world during his time at Treasury. The world is changing rapidly, and at the FarrCast we keep an ear to the ground on Wall Street, in Washington, and on The World.
January 14, 2021
There's Still Some 2020 Stuck to My Shoe
It's a tumultuous first week of 2021. Michael Farr welcomes Jim Iuorio to talk markets -- don't be surprised if there is a pullback, but the outlook through to the medium term is good -- and Dan Mahaffee to discuss the unprecedented assault on the Capitol. The United States has faced other crises before, and the Republic endures. Michael finishes with a positive note and a word on his faith in the American Way.
January 07, 2021
The Top Ten For 2021!
Every year, Michael Farr selects ten stocks that he follows as his picks for the coming year. Listen in as Michael and producer Harry Jennings discuss the stocks, the companies, and what drives an investment thesis for the coming year. Thanks to all of The FarrCast audience for listening in during 2020. We will be back to you next week as we continue season four. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
December 29, 2020
When Everyone Expects Something
Rumor has it that 2020 will come to an end in two weeks, and The FarrCast is here to look ahead. Michael Farr welcomes Jim Lebenthal from CNBC's Halftime Report to talk markets. Congress is finally close to a stimulus deal after seven months, will it be a "sell the news" event? Jim and Michael agree with the pain that much of America is feeling, the stimulus is necessary as a political as well as economic item. Dan Mahaffee joins for the latest from DC and the hints of a powerful center rising in the Senate -- but Dan expects the tribalism to continue. He also says that the recent hack into government computer systems has been underplayed, partly because no one's sure if the Russians are still holding our pants down. For our special guest segment, Michael is joined by FarrCast fan favorite Jack Bouroudjian. Jack talks about the commodities complex and what it is telling us about the economy. He asks tough questions about the stimulus, and reminds investors: when everyone expects something to happen, they are usually wrong. It's a great year end FarrCast. Listen now and share with a friend!
December 17, 2020
The Drunken Sailor's Path to Recovery
This week's FarrCast kicks off with Michael Farr and Kenny Polcari looking at the markets -- with the big November rally, the Santa Claus rally might not have much legs. The two of them revisit some of the structural changes that have occurred in markets over the years. Dan Mahaffee joins for a look at the Biden cabinet as it comes together, and what it tells us about policy. And finally in our special guest segment, Michael welcomes first-time FarrCast guest Tory Newmyer, National Correspondent for The Washington Post and primary author of the regular Finance 202 column. Tory talks about the K-shaped recovery and why austerity, while good for a household, might not be the best path for the largest economy in the world. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
December 10, 2020
Vaccines are on the way and markets touch new highs! The FarrCast is here to take a dive into Wall Street, Washington, and The World to help you figure out what happened -- and what might be coming next. This week Michael talks markets with Jim Iuorio (he sees a possible correction, but that could be healthy); DC with Dan Mahaffee (stimulus, shutdown, and more!), and the world with Mark Hamrick (who has a different take on the political turmoil, and takes a long view on the economy.) Listen today and share with a friend!
December 04, 2020
It's Thanksgiving week, and most people invested in the markets are thankful for a rebound that brings us to a nice round number. Michael welcomes Kenny Polcari to talk about the road back from the depths of March, and what it tells us about what is to come. The Biden Administration is beginning to take shape and the big news for the markets is the nomination of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary. Kenny and Michael discuss what Yellen means to the market, and political analyst Dan Mahaffee talks about what her nomination means more broadly to the trajectory of a Biden Administration. Finally, on this holiday week of Thanksgiving, Michael delivers an essay on what he is thankful for. We have covered a great deal of ground over the past year, but Americans are people of hope, and there is much to be grateful for. We are thankful for you, our listeners. We hope you enjoy listening as much as we enjoy bringing the show to you. Coming to you every week, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
November 24, 2020
No Stimulus, No Problem?
Markets have welcomed vaccine news moving to new highs. Michael Farr welcomes Jim Lebenthal who says that markets are now finding a new normal. Investing for the long term is difficult in an expensive market, but Jim says the path of least resistance is now up. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion on the polls, the Senate races in Georgia, and why stimulus appears dead until the new Congress is convened in January. And in our World segment, Michael is joined by Dr. Jay Bryson, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo who forecasts healthy GDP growth without stimulus in a base case. Jay looks forward to the next business cycle and sees a return to the slow growth environment of the previous decade. Helping you decipher the intersection of Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
November 19, 2020
The Election Reveals -- A Rising Bull Market
The election has past, and while there are still question marks, disputes, and the odd law suit, the markets don't seem to care. Jim Iuorio joins Michael Farr for a look at the markets today, and Jim makes a case for the surge that began this week, "having legs." He sees the tech trade as not just a "stay-at-home" play, but also being driven by balance sheet strength and a store of value. It might not be all clear skies, but Jim sees more reasons for optimism heading into 2021. Our senior political analyst, Dan Mahaffee joins for a dissection of what the election tells us, and what it means for the markets. For all of the division in the country, the voters appear to be grasping for a middle way, and if a Biden Administration can find that middle way, it is a favorable environment for business as well. For our special guest segment, Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link. They discuss the threats that face the investor, and where opportunities lie. It's another great FarrCast as Michael and guests shed light on Wall Street, Washington, and The World. Listen today!
November 12, 2020
The Election Limbo Edition
The election is over, but the counting continues. Michael Farr welcomes political analyst Dan Mahaffee and markets expert, Jim Lebenthal, to help untangle the threads and make some sense of what we know -- and examine what we don't know yet. Jim and Michael agree volatility will increase as the election count saga continues, but the plausible end results look to likely be positive for the long term investor. Dan Mahaffee joins the conversation with a look at what we do know, don't know, and when we might know more. Wall Street, Washington, and The World have collided -- and The FarrCast is here to help you understand what happened, and what is likely to come next. Listen today!
November 04, 2020
TRUMP WINS!!! (Experts Weigh in: It Could Happen)
On the FarrCast, we bring you insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World. This week, the three are speeding together on a collision course. Will they feed off each other and spin away with new energy? Or will it just be a train wreck? Michael Farr welcomes market expert Kenny Polcari as his first guest to look at the market wobble. Kenny says it shouldn't be a surprise, and their may be another leg lower -- but the smart investor can find opportunities in the pullback. For our special election week analysis, Michael turns to Lester Munson, long time Capital Hill insider, and our senior political analyst, Dan Mahaffee. They present two different plausible scenarios for the coming election, and look at what the new administration will face, be it a Biden or Second Trump Administration. And yes, they see a possibility for a Trump victory. It's an election week edition that can't be missed -- listen now and share with a friend!
October 29, 2020
A Level of Humility Is Required
Join us this week on the FarrCast as we discuss patience and discipline in the face of election turmoil. Michael Farr talks with Jim Lebenthal on the markets, Dan Mahaffee on the elections, and welcomes special guest Jenny Harrington on the long term outlook.
October 22, 2020
Blue Waves, Choppy Seas & More
The nautical themes come hard and fast in the headlines this week, with blue waves (and maybe tsunamis!) in Washington, and choppiness on Wall Street. The FarrCast brings you the experts to explain it for you, and what to look for next! Fan favorite Kenny Polcari joins Michael to talk about the markets. Kenny sees more volatility ahead, but when the election is decided, the markets should find some stability. Investors have be patient and not get emotional. Dan Mahaffee says the election is looking clearer as the path for a Trump victory becomes ever harder to see. In our third segment, Michael welcomes special guest Daryl Owen. Daryl is a long time Washington insider and a legal expert. He discusses how the Amy Coney Barrett nomination effects the election, the courts, and possible impacts on the institution of the Senate as well as the economy. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
October 16, 2020
Off Again, On Again Stimulus
The news is coming fast and furious this week, and The FarrCast is here to help separate what investors need to know from the noise. Michael Farr welcomes Jim Lebenthal this week to talk about Wall Street. Markets appear to be comfortable with the idea of a Biden presidency, but not with the idea of killing stimulus. Jim says the turmoil will continue -- but investors have to look forward to 2021 and beyond, and he's constructive on long term prospects. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins to talk through some of the political ramifications of this week's events, and the increasing likelihood of a Biden victory. For our third segment, Robert Frick, Corporate Economist of Navy Federal Credit Union, the largest credit union in the US, discusses with Michael where the economy is right now, and what it needs to move forward. The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
October 07, 2020
Farr Flash: Special Edition
The President has tested positive for COVID-19 and the markets have tumbled -- but is the move lower one more shout in a noisy room, or a fundamental shift? Michael Farr and producer Harry Jennings discuss the morning's news and what the long term investor needs to look for as news develops. Exploring the intersection of Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!
October 02, 2020
Don't Run For the Hills Just Yet
It has been a tumultuous week in Washington, but The FarrCast is back to make some sense out of it! Michael first welcomes markets expert Jim Iuorio. The markets posted losses in September, but Jim explains why it makes sense, and why he is still bullish over the long term, even though he expects more choppiness in the weeks ahead. Political expert Dan Mahaffee joins to parse the debates and the ongoing stimulus negotiations on Capitol Hill. The election season is reaching a climax. Finally, long time Washington insider and economics journalist Mark Hamrick discusses the long term outlook with Michael. The political headlines may create short term volatility, but history tells us the long term is rarely impacted by elections. Information is your best tool in times of turmoil. Listen to The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
October 01, 2020
Angst, Anxiety, and Opportunity
This week's FarrCast comes to you on Friday at the end of a tumultuous week in the markets and in Washington. This week's FarrCast comes to you on Friday at the eynd of a tumultuous week in the markets and in Washington.onth he says it will continue -- and for the disciplined investor, the anxiety of the day provides opportunity. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins for the second segment and takes a look at the Supreme Court nomination fight and the upcoming debates. For our special guest segment, Michael welcomes back Jack Bouroudjian. Jack is still bullish, but strikes a note of caution. The world is changing rapidly, and investors need to adapt. Coming to you every week with experts and insiders -- it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
September 25, 2020
A K-shaped Recovery?
Markets have stabilized after the tech pullback, but now don't appear to like what Fed Chair Powell had to say this week. The Fed Chairman sees a long, hard road to recovery. Michael Farr welcomes CNBC's Jim Lebenthal to talk about the recovery, and the prospects for the markets moving forward. Jim says the K-shaped recovery, and "shadow inflation" as real threats to investors. We then turn to Washington, and our senior political analyst, Dan Mahaffee. Dan lays out what has each party worried as we move into the last 50 days of the election season. Dan also says that a new stimulus bill has little chance of passage, though the President has changed the negotiating landscape with his latest tweets. In our special guest segment, Heather Long, Economics Correspondent of The Washington Post returns for a deep dive beyond the headlines. She has been reporting on the K-shaped recovery, where those holding stocks do well, but much of the working class is left behind. The two-path recovery has serious social and political ramifications, but serous economic consequences as well. Making sense from the noisy news of the week-- it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
September 17, 2020
In Volatile Times, Make Sure There's a There, There.
On this week's FarrCast Michael welcomes special guest Mona Mahajan, Chief US Investment Strategist for Allianz GI. Mona is one of the most respected strategists on Wall Street, a FarrCast fan favorite, and one of the smartest (and nicest!) people we ever get to talk to. Michael and Mona have a wide ranging discussion on the state of the markets, the impact of the elections, and changes in the world economy as we move towards a post-COVID world. Mona outlines the threats and opportunities she sees, and while volatility is expected to increase as we approach the election, she lays out the case to remain fully invested and optimistic looking to year end and beyond. But first, Michael examines the sudden correction in the markets, and what it means for investors. As he has been saying, markets don't move in a straight line upwards, and investors have to avoid the emotional pitfalls of pullbacks. And our senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins for look at the heating up of the most heated Presidential race in history. Bringing you information beneath the headlines it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
September 10, 2020
Optimism Is a Matter of Timing
Wall Street has hit a speed bump today, but the economy is facing much more than a bump in the road. Why the disconnect? This week on the FarrCast, Michael Farr welcomes Jim Iuorio to talk markets, and Jim says a correction could happen anytime -- but he's not expecting one imminently, and explains why (and how the resignation of the Prime Minister of Japan effects his thesis.) Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about Washington and the US political scene. Racial wounds have been exposed in Minneapolis, Kenosha, and elsewhere. How are America's fault lines opening in politics? Finally, in our third segment, Michael welcomes special guest Doug Steenland, non-executive Chairman of the Board at AIG, and former CEO of Northwest Airlines. Doug has an interesting perch on the economy, and explains how the massive economic crisis hasn't become a financial crisis. Nonetheless, he remains cautious about the recovery: we still have a long way to go. Coming to you every week with experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
September 03, 2020
A Bumpy Ride (An Economy on the Brink & Market Nearing a Bubble)
Season Four of The FarrCast begins now! We've cut our summer hiatus short because there is so much to cover, and so much we want our listeners to know. To begin the season, Michael Farr welcomes Jim Lebenthal to talk about the markets; (maybe not a bubble yet, but "bubblicious") our senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee on the elections; (investors need to consider what policy arises from politics) and Tony Fratto, former Deputy Press Secretary and Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Bush Administration. Michael and Tony have a wide ranging conversation on the pandemic, the Federal Reserve, and the optics of the Presidency. We hope you enjoy listening as much as we enjoy making the shows for you! It's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
August 28, 2020
Stimulus Dead? Election Chaos? Market Rotation? It's a Lot of Sausage Making
Join us on The FarrCast this week as Michael and his guests discuss the major headlines of the week: tech stocks are taking a breather; the stimulus plan seems to be dead in the water; and Joe Biden has finally picked his running mate. Kenny Polcari joins for the market segment and says the tech trade is rich, but not dead, and the elections will be the big story of the final quarter of 2020. The FarrCast's senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins for an update on the stimulus package, and goes through some of the potential scenarios for the election that could play out through the end of the year. Michael welcomes special guest Stephanie Link for our final segment, and she says she, and the markets, still expect a stimulus bill to pass, and failure would have serious repercussions. It's another week of events that change the investing landscape and our world. Join us on The FarrCast as we look at the impact of events on Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
August 13, 2020
Bonus Edition: What Will It Take to Get Back to Normal?
Michael Farr and Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, former President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, continue their conversation from this week's FarrCast episode. In the bonus edition, Michael and Dr. Lacker discuss the limits of the power of any central bank, the reasons the Fed will always remain solvent, and why we aren't seeing widespread inflation. Every week The FarrCast brings you experts and insiders and sometimes their conversations can't fit into a single episode, so we bring you this week's bonus edition. We hope you enjoy listening as much as we enjoyed making the show!
August 06, 2020
Did the Fed Do Too Much or Too Little? (Maybe Yes & Yes)
The markets have consolidated near their pre-pandemic highs, but the economic data on the recovery is leveling off. In Washington, progress on a new round of stimulus is slow at best, even as extended unemployment relief expires. The future is always uncertain -- but there is more uncertainty now than ever. Don't worry, get informed! Michael Farr welcomes Jim Iuorio to explain the distortions in the markets, and where he sees opportunities. Dan Mahaffee explains the logjam on Capitol Hill, and the forces that each party are facing within their own caucuses. Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, former President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank joins Michael for an extended discussion on where the economy sits, and where it is going. Dr. Lacker has "been in the room" as a member of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, and understands the process. Emergency measures were necessary, and have certainly helped -- but Dr. Lacker warns the tools of the Central Banks are limited moving forward. It's a fantastic new FarrCast filled with information. Join Michael Farr as he explores Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
August 05, 2020
A Red Wave? (Not the Chinese Kind): America Will Adapt
Wall Street's eyes turn to Washington this week as The Fed meets and the Senate tries to pass a stimulus & relief package. On the FarrCast, Michael Farr invites some of the best minds on both Wall Street and Washington to help us all understand what is happening -- and what may be coming next. Jim Lebenthal of CNBC joins Michael for the first segment discussing the wobble the markets have taken as they reach new highs. For our second and third segment, Michael welcomes Lester Munson, former Chief of Staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and our regular political analyst, Dan Mahaffee of the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Both agree the Senate bill will pass, but there are plenty of changes coming. Turning to the election, a GOP sweep is impossible today, but the election is almost 100 days away, which Les & Dan remind us is a lifetime in politics. Bringing you experts and insiders every week, it's The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
July 29, 2020
Which Part of the Handbasket?
Markets strive for new highs & Michael Farr welcomes back Kenny Polcari for another discussion of where Kenny sees the market opportunities -- and where he see threats. Dan Mahaffee joins with the latest from DC and says the next round of stimulus isn't a guaranteed pass -- it might take another crisis to get it over the finish line. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Lester Munson of BGR International, and a FarrCast fan favorite. Les has a long career on Capital Hill and decades of experience in foreign policy. He says the relationship with China is changing, and it's not an exaggeration to say it's the beginning of new Cold War. Go beyond the headlines each week with The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
July 22, 2020
I Think It Adds Clarity & Maturity
The markets wobbled a bit this week, but then pushed higher. On this week's FarrCast Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari to talk markets. Kenny agrees there is a disconnect between the markets (doing great) and the economy (not so much), but the economy can rise to the markets. Dan Mahaffee joins for the latest in DC, including the prospects of the next round of stimulus/relief. And in our special guest segment, Michael welcomes Mark Hamrick of Bankrate for a deeper look at the damage to the economy and the hard work of the recovery. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
July 15, 2020
You Have to Respect Both Sides of the Equation
We are coming to you with another great episode of The FarrCast. First up, Michael Farr welcomes Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners and a contributor on CNBC. Jim says the markets aren't quite making sense right now, but with the liquidity of the Fed -- and cash on the sidelines -- a floor is likely in. Jim's sense is the market moves largely sideways this year, but thinks buying opportunities will arise and gives great practical advice on how to take advantage. Jim says he heard a rumor there is an election this year, and for that Michael turns to political analyst Dan Mahaffee. Dan discusses the disruption the pandemic and political rhetoric is likely to cause in the election season -- and effects it could have on the markets. For our special guest segment, Michael welcomes the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos. Nick is one of the leading journalists in the country covering the Fed and his insights on the power, and the limits, of monetary policy give insight in what happens next in the economy and the markets. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
July 09, 2020
I Just Don't Come Out of My Basement
The country continues the restart and on this week's FarrCast, Jim Iuorio explains his bullish-ness. He says it's too early to draw too many conclusions, but he's encouraged by the data he is seeing. Dan Mahaffee joins for a look at what the Treasury and the Fed are doing to keep the green shoots growing. And in our special guest segment, Michael Farr welcomes back Thomas Heath of The Washington Post. The markets had a great second quarter; listen to the FarrCast for a look forward to next quarter and beyond!
July 01, 2020
Nothing Is More Real Than Nothing
We come to the close of the first half of 2020, and it seems like we’ve had quite a decade in the last six months. As always, The FarrCast is with you to provide insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World! Michael Farr gives his outlook on the markets – we are seeing good news, but not great news. The markets are acting like the news is great though. And Farr says that ultimately what pulls the economy up will be demand – and supply side solutions don’t help with demand side problems. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk DC & politics – the President is focused on his base, and the policies the base wants to see have distinct economic consequences. For our special guest segment, Michael welcomes Robert Frick, Chief Economist from Navy Federal Credit Union. Bob talks about the optimism at the beginning of the recovery – in the absence of fact, we choose to believe in the best outcomes. There are dangers however: Bob says we’ve added back the easy jobs, and it’s a long struggle from here to get the economy back to pre-COVID levels. Coming to you every week with experts and insiders, it’s The FarrCast!
June 24, 2020
Bonus Segment: Is There a Day of Reckoning?
Michael Farr and Heather Long continue their conversation on the economic recovery. There will be consequences for the stimulus & relief packages, but as Kenny Polcari said in the previous FarrCast episode, "There is No Playbook." Michael & Heather explore what the fallout may be -- and when it will come. Bringing you experts and insiders every week, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
June 17, 2020
There's No Playbook
Volatility is the watchword -- in the market, in the economy, and in the world. Michael Farr welcomes another fabulous lineup of guests to help you make your way through the threats and find the opportunities in today's turbulent environment! Kenny Polcari explains the sudden breaks in the markets as prices get away from fundamentals. There are no good historical models for what the markets are facing, so changes in sentiment produces whipsaw movements. Dan Mahaffee helps explain the disputes in Asia -- and why China finds itself on the side of helping smooth things over for the benefit of the US. In our third segment, Michael welcomes Heather Long of The Washington Post for a deep discussion, and great summary, of monetary policy. Right now, the Federal Reserve has more influence over American's pocketbooks (and 401Ks!) than ever before and there is no one better to explain the complexities of what goes on at the Fed in language we all can understand. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
June 17, 2020
Don't Go Dumpster Diving
The markets have retraced all of the losses for the year, but the economy is officially in a recession. How does an investor square the circle between those two facts? Listen to The FarrCast for insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World! Michael welcomes Jim Lebenthal from CNBC in the first segment and Jim says the virtues of common sense and patience are essential in today's investing environment where threats and opportunities are finely balanced. Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion of politics and policy and gives his thoughts on the possibility of a blue wave in the 2020 elections. In the third segment, Michael welcomes back fan favorite Jack Bouroudjian for a look at the long term of the markets and the economy. The pandemic has accelerated technological trends that Jack sees as pillars of the economy over the next decades. Listen now and share with a friend!
June 10, 2020
They Never Know When to Leave the Party
Unrest in the streets, discord in Washington, economic data tanking . . . and the markets are up? Michael Farr welcomes Jim Iurio to help decipher what is going on. Jim says the markets will continue to rebound -- but the path won't be straight up. And he has a hopeful message about the current unrest in the US. Dan Mahaffee gives a DC perspective and what the handling of the pandemic and the death of George Floyd could mean for US politics, and geo-politics. For this week's special guest, Michael is joined by Jeff Saut of Saut Strategies, and Chief Market Strategist for Capital Wealth Planning LLC. Jeff has over 40 years of experience in the markets, and takes a long view. He says the secular bull market that began, depending on how you count, in 2008, 2009, or 2013 is still moving forward. There will be pullbacks, and headwinds, but for the long term investor, Jeff maintains the biggest risk is not being invested. Knowledge is the best tool in times of turmoil -- turn to The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
June 02, 2020
How Long to Cross This Valley?
The markets continue to move higher while the economy teeters on the brink. Confused? The FarrCast is here to help! Michael Farr begins with a quick look at the markets, and the strategy he is following to help navigate the turmoil. Dan Mahaffee joins for look at the motivations behind the crackdown in China, as well as the politics of the restart here in the US. For our special guest segment, Michael welcomes Dr. Jay Bryson, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo Investments. Jay shares his perspectives on the economic outlook -- the third quarter may look great compared to the second, but with 38 million unemployed, we are a long way from returning to the level of activity we saw in 2019. It's the FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World. To read Michael and Dan's recent op-ed on CNBC.com, "China May Kill Market’s Bullish Recovery," go to: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/op-ed-china-may-kill-markets-bullish-recovery.html
May 27, 2020
Bonus Edition: "We're Not Going to Find Out Until We Get There"
On the May 20 episode of The FarrCast, Michael Farr and Dr. Jeffrey Lacker continued their conversation after the show wrapped, and we kept the tape rolling! We are happy to bring you this extended bonus segment of the FarrCast. Dr. Lacker says the current market levels are plausible -- even in the face of the economic storm. He says the Fed may have gone too far too fast in the response to the pandemic. And in spite of the turmoil, he (like Michael) remains fully invested, looking through to the other side of the storm, even though we may not know how long the tempest may last. Enjoy a special bonus segment of The FarrCast!
May 21, 2020
A Collision Course
The United States is beginning to re-open as the spread of the pandemic slows. Michael Farr welcomes guests Dan Mahaffee and Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Dr. Jeffrey Lacker. The markets, economy, and politics appear to be on a collision course, and Michael and his guests talk through it. Michael lays out the numbers -- there is a lot of stimulus, and a lot of debt, and that will not be without consequence. Dan Mahaffee outlines the gridlock, and the failures of government to prepare for the post-lockdown world. Finally, Dr. Lacker joins to discuss the economy -- he makes the case that the markets being only 10% off their highs makes some sense; he says the Fed may have done too much too fast; and that he is still invested in the markets. Helping you understand the traffic at the intersection of Wall Street, Washington, and The World, it's The FarrCast!
May 20, 2020
Don't Let Logic Fool You About the Outcome
The US economy inches towards a reopening. It's another great FarrCast this week to help you separate the signal from the noise. Michael begins with a look at the markets -- we are closing in on 10% of all time highs, but it seems like the world is more than 10% messed up. Michael explains the disconnect and points out where threats may lie. We are joined by Rob Ferguson, one of the leading realtors in the DC area to explain what the real estate markets are doing -- and not doing -- as we make our way through the pandemic. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee is with us for a regular segment looking at policy, and the coming fight over the next pandemic relief bill, and how that plays into the coming electoral season. And finally, we welcome Kenny Polcari, now Managing Partner of Kace Capital Advisors. Kenny helps tease themes developing in the economy for investors to watch. Bringing you insight into the changing economic and market environment, it's the FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
May 13, 2020
I'm Just Grateful to Have the Glass
The country begins to struggle with The Great Restart, and The FarrCast is here with experts and insiders to give you a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities we face. This week, Michael welcomes back Jim Iuorio on the markets; Jim says the current levels make sense to him given the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. But the next leg up is dependent on material improvement in the economy. Dan Mahaffee brings us insight into the increasing polarization of response policy and how the media narrative is driving a wedge. In the third segment, Michael is joined by special guest Kathy McGuiness, State Auditor of the State of Delaware who brings her small business experience into the government. She talks about the impacts of the shutdown, and the challenges facing the re-opening. It's The FarrCast -- bringing you insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
May 06, 2020
Plans are being made to restart the economy, but the markets are already well ahead. Are markets getting ahead of themselves? Michael Farr discusses the threats yet to be defined. Dan Mahaffee joins for a look at the policy debates in Washington, and how the lines are being drawn for the next fight. For this week's special guest, Michael welcomes Greg Protiva of Intercoastal Mortgage Company. In spite of the pandemic, Greg is seeing the busiest month of his long career. He explains how the Federal Reserve's policies have impacted the mortgage market "at ground level" and shares his thoughts on the next shoe to drop. Coming to you every week, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
April 29, 2020
Did I Miss a Few Trillion in There?
More disconnects and dislocations are appearing in the markets -- but The FarrCast is here to help you find your way through! Michael Farr gives his thoughts on where we are in the public health crisis, and what the recovery is shaping up to look like. It's a tumultuous time for investors, but not one without opportunity. Our senior political analyst, Dan Mahaffee joins us again this week with insights into the latest stimulus/ relief package making its way through Congress, the breaking news from Iran, and how the electoral sands are shifting as we move towards November. For our special guest this week, we welcome Mona Mahajan, Chief US Strategist for Allianz Global, and one of the sharpest minds on Wall Street. Mona stays with us for an extended discussion on the themes that are developing in a world beset by coronavirus -- and what the post-corona investing environment may look like. Join us for another information packed show on The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
April 22, 2020
I Never Thought My Introversion Would Save Lives
Markets continue to climb off the lows, now back within 15% of the record highs. Yet, forecasts are for 30-40% drops in GDP -- one of these numbers is out of place. Michael Farr takes a look at the markets and where he sees the disconnect. As we continue to examine the impact of the pandemic, Michael welcomes another guest from the front lines -- this time the owner of a small business facing a cessation of revenue, Capt. Dave Ramsey of Park Shore Marina. Capt. Dave discusses how the shutdown is effecting his business, the uncertainties he faces, and the path he sees to endure. Next, we are joined by our senior political analyst, Dan Mahaffee. Dan talks about the limits of government power to restart the economy. Sending the 101st Airborne to segregate the schools is one thing, but you can't call out the Army to make someone go to a restaurant or buy something new at Target. Our special guest this week is Washington insider and FarrCast fan favorite, Tony Fratto. Tony and Michael have a wide ranging conversation on the pandemic, the prospects for recovery, and all of the ground in between. For more of Tony's insights, watch tomorrow for a special FarrCast episode with all 30 minutes of Tony and Michael's discussion. It's the FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
April 15, 2020
We Have to Be Firm
The curve is flattening: this might not be the beginning of the end for the pandemic saga, but may be the end of the beginning. On this week's FarrCast Michael Farr welcomes Steve Weiss for a look at investing through, and beyond the coronavirus. Steve shares the developing he sees and he is investing in, and while there will be a rough road, he believes the economy and markets will ultimately emerge stronger. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins with a discussion for the political pitfalls that the restart of the economy will face. We have placed the economy in an induced coma -- it's not as easy as flipping a switch and returning to normal. For our special guest, Michael welcomes Dr. Jim Williams, a family care physician who is on the front lines of the pandemic at Johns Hopkins Sibley Memorial Hospital every day. He shares what he is seeing in the field, and his thoughts on what we can do to stay safe. Coming to you every week with insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast. For Dan Mahaffee and Michael Farr's current op-ed "Corporate Leadership Means Putting Lives First" go to: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/op-ed-corporate-leadership-means-putting-lives-first.html
April 08, 2020
Not a Grain, But a Great Wall of Salt
These are difficult times and what we don't know, it's clear, is more than we do know. But on The FarrCast we are here to shed a little more insight, gain a little more knowledge, and help you navigate through the turmoil. This week Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio, fan favorite and longtime trader from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Dan Mahaffee helps us understand the policy evolution in Washington, and Stephanie Link, one of the smartest voices from CNBC gives her thoughts on how to find value, and assess risk. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
April 01, 2020
Don't Bet Against America
We take a wider look on the FarrCast this week on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Michael welcomes experts Dr. Nancy Aburto, reporting from Rome as Italy enters its third week of lockdown, and Judy Kunisch of Yale University on the stress the US healthcare system is facing. Their on the ground experience gives us some notion of what is to come. Turning to Washington, Michael and Senior Political Correspondent Dan Mahaffee are joined by audience favorite, Lester Munson. The third relief package, this one totaling two trillion dollars, is making its way through Congress. Les makes the case that another package will come -- and why it is needed. Giving you insight into the changing social, political, market, and economic conditions that impact the investing environment, it's The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
March 25, 2020
Not Without Consequences
Mark Hamrick, one of the most experienced financial journalists in the country joins us this week. For all of the ups and down he and Michael Farr have seen over the years, from the crash of 1987 to the Great Recession and all points in between, there has been nothing quite like what we've seen in the past few weeks. The last time Mark was on was on, the markets were at all time highs, and talk of possibility of recession caused by coronavirus was laughed at -- what a different world we live in six weeks later. But first -- Michael gives insight into looking through the numbers; for all of the turmoil, the economy and the markets will build new lows and eventually climb to new highs. Investors must have discipline, and above all, patience. And regular Dan Mahaffee calls in to share his thoughts on the changes in politics the pandemic has brought, and gives his insight into the Odd Couple, and new axis of power in DC, Steven Mnuchin and Nancy Pelosi. Join us as we go beyond the headlines on Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's the FarrCast!
March 18, 2020
Wrap Yourself in Chaos & Wait for the Fog to Clear
US markets have officially entered a bear market, and Michael Farr is with you on the FarrCast to help you navigate through it. This week, Michael talks about the importance of looking through the numbers and coping with unknowable unknowns. Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion on the government's response to the coronavirus crisis, and the possibility of further fiscal relief and stimulus. For our third segment, we have the great Robert Frick, Chief Economist of Navy Federal Credit Union, and an expert on behavioral finance. He gives us sound advice on staying the course for the long term. The coronavirus may impact the markets, but The FarrCast comes to you from a virtual studio to bring you information to help you through the chaos. It's The FarrCast -- Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
March 12, 2020
Air Cover for Normalcy
Markets swoon! Coronavirus spreads! Fed slashes rates! Ten-year note yields fall below one-percent! In times of uncertainty, knowledge is the best weapon, and we have an information packed FarrCast for you this week. First up, Jim Iuorio checks in with us and actually makes a bull case for the markets from here -- but says that even while he thinks that's likely, a recession can't be ruled out. Dan Mahaffee joins with news from DC and the campaign trail. Joe Biden's political career has risen from the grave, but he's not ready for sainthood yet. In the third segment, Michael Farr welcomes special guest, Dr. Jay Bryson, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo investments. Jay explains what the changes from the Fed mean for the economy, and what to look for moving forward. There is a lot of uncertainty in the headlines -- listen to the FarrCast to reduce your uncertainty. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
March 04, 2020
This Is Not a Time to Be a Hero
The US markets suffer their worst two day loss in five years and The FarrCast is here to help you make sense of it! Michael Farr talks about the broader economic implications of the coronavirus epidemic. The market is beginning a repricing based on the impacts of trade and supply chains. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about the latest developments in the presidential race, and how the markets may react, and the races react to the market. This week's special guest is Jack Bouroudjian. He has a salient warning for investors -- we don't know how bad the impacts of the epidemic can be. It might not be much -- but we might lose a couple of quarters of growth, and the market implications are significant.
February 26, 2020
Leopards Don't Have Stripes
Markets are at all time highs and no one seems worried. That worries Michael Farr. He shares the potential headwinds he's seeing, but while the music is playing, we keep dancing (but stay close to your chair!) Dan Mahaffee joins Michael to talk about the New Hampshire results, and the increasingly possibility of a brokered convention this year for the Democrats. Journalist Mark Hamrick is with us for the third segment and talks about his concerns over the markets' reaction to Coronavirus, and why the Fed won't bail us out every time something bad happens. (It's not because they don't want to!) It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
February 12, 2020
Are Markets Scared of Nothing?
Coronavirus, economic slowdown of the world's second largest economy, disruptions in the bond markets, political chaos, Brexit, impeachment . . . and markets keep rising! On this week's FarrCast Michael talks with Jim Iuorio on what Wall Street is looking at -- and the difference between politics and assessment of policy. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk Washington and The World as we face the end of the impeachment saga, and what the disaster in Iowa means moving forward. Coming to with experts and insiders to help you navigate Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast! Michael Farr will be appearing at the University of Delaware Lerner College of Business' Economic Forecast this coming Monday at 3:00pm. Michael will appear alongside Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. Tickets for the event are sold out, but it will be streamed live on the Lerner College Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/UDLerner/ and at this link https://sites.udel.edu/udlive/star-tower-audion-2-2/ starting at 3 PM on Monday, February 10.
February 05, 2020
A Three Airplane Week Isn't Too Bad
And airplanes are in the headlines today, as air travel to and from China is being cut. Michael says while the markets may have shaken off the first of the Coronavirus jitters, there is more to the story to come. Dan Mahaffee joins us to talk impeachment, China, and the latest headline from Harvard. For the third segment, we are always grateful when Greg Valliere can join us. Greg's insights into Washington -- and what the headlines mean for the markets -- is second to none. It's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World. You can subscribe to Greg Valliere's daily Capitol Notes at perspectives.agf.com/subscribe
January 29, 2020
I'm Accustomed to Turmoil
And on the FarrCast we help navigate the turmoil for you! This week Coronavirus is in the news and Asian markets are shaky. Michael begins with guest Dr. Nadia Eltaki, Director of Clinical Operation of the Emergency Department at Sibley Memorial Hospital. Dr. Eltaki walks us through what we know about Coronavirus, and the procedures in place to keep it under control if it comes to the US. We then talk with our resident China expert Dan Mahaffee on the impact on Chinese society, and special guest Douglas Steenland, who was President of Northwest Airlines during the SARS outbreak. In the third segment, Michael has a wide ranging discussion with Doug, who is now Chairman of the Board at AIG. He led the rescue team that took steered the company from its bailout to raising the cash to repay the government for the bailout in three years -- with interest. His insight into the current state of the economy is something you won't want to miss! It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
January 23, 2020
The Ides of January Are Upon Us
. . . and for all of the risks out there -- the economy and markets are pretty good. This week Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio to talk markets to explain his bullish call on the markets. Dan Mahaffee and special guest Lester Munson are in studio to beyond the headlines: Iran, Phase One, Iraq, Impeachment, Debates, and now breaking news from Russia. Where are the threats? The opportunities? Listen to The FarrCast as Michael Farr brings you experts and insiders to help you navigate Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
January 15, 2020
Iran Threat; Suleimani's Death Explained
It's an interesting start to the New Year in geo-politics -- and the markets are jittery. What comes next in Iran? And what does it mean for the investor? Michael Farr welcomes our political expert Dan Mahaffee to explain the State of Play in the Persian Gulf and what the potential paths forward are. It's a special edition of The FarrCast to help cut through the headlines to what we know, and don't know, and the impact on the investing landscape.
January 06, 2020
The Year End All-Star Review!
The US markets have posted a stellar year, and on the FarrCast we have had a stellar lineup of guests. We've talked to some of our top guests to get their thoughts on 2020. No one can know the future -- but these are the experts' experts and their foresight can help you navigate the year ahead! Featuring: Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Board of Trade, Mona Mahajan, US Strategist, AllianzGI, Martin Barnes, Chief Economist of BCA Research, Jay Bryson, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo, Steve Weiss from CNBC, Neil Dwane, Chief Global Strategist of AllianzGI, Jack Bouroudjian of UCX, and of course, Michael Farr, President and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington. Take the FarrCast with you on the New Year's Holiday, and be prepared for what the New Year brings!
December 26, 2019
Michael Farr's Top Ten for 2020!
In the first of our year-end specials, Michael Farr shares with you his Top Ten for 2020! Each year, Michael selects a list of stocks that he personally purchases with the intention of holding for one year. He invests an equal dollar amount in each position, then re-invests the following year in the new list. This week, Michael shares the stocks that make the list for 2020, and a bit about the investment thesis and outlook for each. A special reminder for the Top Ten List: The FarrCast is for information purposes only and any mention of a security should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. The listener should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable, or the appropriateness of these specific security for a specific portfolio. Before you make any investment decision, we strongly recommend you consult with a financial professional to determine what may be best for your individual needs and your goals. If we can be of assistance at Farr, Miller & Washington, please contact email@example.com and I will put you in touch with one of our professionals who will be glad to help.
December 21, 2019
The Virtues of Slow & Steady -- Martin Barnes of BCA Research
Enjoy this segment of The FarrCast recorded December 10, 2019. Martin Barnes joins Michael Farr and discusses the economic outlook for 2020. There is a reason Martin is considered one of the people that make modern investment.
December 13, 2019
As We Get Older, It Gets Harder to Run Fast
This week, we welcome the great Martin Barnes, Chief Economist from BCA Research. Martin is absolutely one of the go-to experts on the economy and markets, and he shares his outlook. There are things he's concerned about in the long term, but for now, "the path of least resistance is up." Plus, Dan Mahaffee on the latest on impeachment -- and the Congress and President actually getting some work done! Michael Farr shares his thoughts on the markets as we come into the year end. It's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
December 12, 2019
It's What's Called a 'Win-Win' (Not Something We Hear Much About in this Town Anymore . . .)
But you're always a winner when you listen to The FarrCast! It's a great show today with special guest Chief Economist from Wells Fargo, Dr. Jay Bryson. Jay is one of the smartest people in the investment industry and he shares his thoughts on the economy (slow growth beats no growth), recession (nothing wildly out of balance to cause one in the foreseeable future) and more! But first, Jim Iuorio checks in from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He's still bullish, but reminds everyone to keep an eye on risk. Complacency is never a problem -- until it is. And political analyst Dan Mahaffee calls in with the latest from the Hill, NATO, and the shakeout of the Democratic primary contenders. Coming to every week with insight beyond the headlines, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
December 05, 2019
Is It Lucy and the Football Again?
We are coming close to the end of the year and the markets inch upwards into record territory. Michael talks about risk -- and how complacency can add risk to a portfolio in ways that aren't always obvious. Dan Mahaffee joins for the latest on China and an election update. And special guest Mark Hamrick helps put everything in DC and geo-politics in the big picture -- and what it bodes for 2020. Always bringing you a look beyond the headlines, it's The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
November 20, 2019
Well, It's Good Theater Anyway
Markets at new highs, bi-partisan co-operation at new lows, and The FarrCast is here to help make sense of it all! Join Michael Farr and guests Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress and Greg Valliere of AGF Investments. All eyes are on Washington, but does impeachment make a difference to the markets? Probably not, but other things in DC happening outside of the spotlight have implications for Wall Street -- and Main Street. Listen to The FarrCast and go beyond the headlines. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World. To subscribe to Greg Valliere's daily update Capitol Insights, go to: https://www.agf.com/ca/en/resources/email-subscription/index.jsp
November 13, 2019
Easy Money Makes a Comeback! Bouroudjian Sees Explosive Growth Beyond the Current Highs
The markets are climbing a wall of worry and Michael Farr talks to the experts' experts on the path from here. Jim Iuorio says the cash on the sidelines is protection against a prolonged downside, and he outlines the Fed's dilemma. Dan Mahaffee joins for a look inside the Beltway and notes President Trump doesn't pivot, which creates political headwinds -- but could contain a boost for the market. And audience favorite Jack Bouroudjian joins for his thoughts. Last year he said the easy money was done, but in December as markets approached lows, he made a bullish call on the "buying opportunity of the decade." Jack outlines his worries on the drift to extremism, and potential political turbulence that could impact markets and the economy. But in the medium-term he says "capex is a coiled spring" and that the Easy Money is starting now -- and he makes a startling call for market highs of 3500 in the coming months. Go beyond the headlines with The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
November 06, 2019
FarrCast Update -- Uncle Jay Says This Is the LAST Piece of Candy
Washington woke up groggy and late this morning but we promised a reaction to the Fed and the FarrCast delivers! (Even if our scheduled guest emailed last night to say there was no way they could come in to the studio after game seven.) The Fed has said they are stepping to the sidelines. What does it mean for markets? Michael gives his thoughts as the "mid-cycle correction" is complete.
October 31, 2019
A Bi-Partisan Marshmallow Failure
Markets reached all-time highs this week but there is still cash on the sidelines. The initial GDP read for the third quarter was released this morning and it's a little better than feared. Meanwhile the investing world awaits the latest from the Fed. It's a special pre-Fed FarrCast this week as Michael Farr breaks down why the economy is ok -- and while it's difficult finding value, ok is still ok. Dan Mahaffee joins for a discussion on conservatism in the age of Trump, and the latest on impeachment. Politics shape policy, and Dan and Michael look at how the shaping of those policies might play out in the economy. Plus, we share a couple of laughs on Harry Farr's birthday, four year olds and marshmallows, and Southern Fried Statism. It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
October 30, 2019
Is It Brexit Yet?
There is a Brexit deal -- but does that really mean anything? Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about some of the economic implications of the move forward (or back) of the UK's divorce from the EU. What does it mean to be a Republican? What does it mean to be a Democrat? And what do the changing faces of the parties mean for the economy? Is anyone serious about the direction of the country? Lester Munson, a longtime Capitol Hill staffer joins Michael and Dan for a dive beyond the headlines. Plus, a catch up on the markets and more! It's the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
October 23, 2019
Getting All Dolled Up
It's the beginning of earnings season and Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari to talk about what the market sentiment is, and how the investor needs to think about the sudden moves that the computerized trading produces. It's been quite a week in DC, and Dan Mahaffee helps break it down, and reminds us that when the ground shifts beneath the Presidency, it moves quickly. Finally, Michael welcomes special guest Stephanie Link of TIAA/Nuveen. Stephanie talks about what she is looking for in earnings season, and that the trade detente is meaningful for the markets -- things might be getting a little better, but they are at least less bad. It's hard to buy low and sell high, but Stephanie and Michael talk not just about stocks they like, but why they like them. Always going beyond the headlines to give you a deeper understanding of the markets, the economy, and the broader world, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World. For more information on Headstrong, the charity Kenny Polcari spoke of, go to www.getheadstrong.org
October 15, 2019
Be Careful for Landsharks
Turmoil in Washington, gyrations in the market, and uncertainty in world -- the FarrCast is here to make some sense of it all! Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari for a talk on markets, a detour into taxation and how it impacts growth, and the forecast ahead. Dan Mahaffee calls in from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress -- he's had a bit to study lately. He gives his insight into how the China "deal" gets smaller by the day. And special guest Robert Frick from Navy Federal Credit Union joins for wide ranging discussion on interest rates, the job markets, and the limits of supply side hammers for demand side nails. (Plus a Samuel Beckett reference!) It's the FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
October 08, 2019
Where Did I Leave My Pitchfork?
The end of the quarter sees the markets end up about where they've started -- but the truth is we've had a pretty good year in nine months. Consumer optimism still holds sway. Michael Farr welcomes regular political analyst Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress and William Reinsch from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dan breaks down the week in politics and Bill gives a big picture look at the China conundrum. He's sat across the table with Chinese negotiators in his career, and says while everyone agrees on the diagnosis, the prescription for the problem is not as clear. For a deeper understanding of the forces shaping our world, listen to the FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
October 01, 2019
Was There Anything in the News This Week?
Boy was there! Michael Farr talks with Dan Mahaffee to break down the President's approach to Ukraine, the opening of impeachment hearings, and the potential political fallout. Our special guest this week is Heather Long of the Washington Post, the top journalist covering the Federal Reserve in the country and she shares her insights on the decision making engine of the Fed, and thoughts on what comes next. BUT FIRST! What's repo, and why does it sound scary when they talk about it? Andy Mathes helps Michael break down the credit crunch in the repo markets, why it matters, and how the Fed used their tools to deal with it. Plus -- how to invest in bonds in the low-interest rate universe. Always bringing you insights from experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
September 25, 2019
Looking Behind When They Should Be Looking Ahead
Lots of nervousness in the news: Strike at GM, attacks in Saudi Arabia, Fed meeting starting, all the while Brexit and China trade still loom. Don't be nervous -- listen to The FarrCast! In this week's podcast, Michael welcomes regular political analyst Dan Mahaffee and long-time investor and blogger, Haven Pell to the show. Dan gives an overview of what we know now about the Saudi attacks -- and that a military response is inevitable. A discussion with Haven Pell on the central banks takes us to questions of leadership. Are politicians of all stripes becoming more cheerleader than coach? Always bringing you insight into what is happening in the world and what shapes our economy -- it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World. For a daily summary of markets, headlines, commodities, and futures before the markets open, subscribe to The FarrCast Three Minute Morning Brief. Each Friday, Dan Mahaffee and The Center for the Study of The Presidency and Congress writes a summary of the week's news from a Washington insider perspective. To read Dan's (and his colleagues) work, go to: https://www.thepresidency.org/cspc-weekly-news-roundup Thanks to special guest, Haven Pell for appearing on the FarrCast. His new blog is at www.pundificator.com .
September 17, 2019
Are We There Yet?
The FarrCast is back for Season Three! Michael tells us a story of what happened over the summer, and where the markets stand. Dan Mahaffee and Les Munson join for a look at Washington and The World, and what may be coming next. Every week the FarrCast brings you experts and insiders for a view of the economic landscape and the politics and policies that shape it. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
September 10, 2019
Markets in Turmoil -- Investors Shouldn't Be
The markets are moving through a summer swoon, and Michael shares his thoughts on what investors should do. And most importantly -- shouldn't do. It's a summer special FarrFlash -- cool heads are needed in hot times.
August 07, 2019
FarrFlash -- Your Summer Update from The FarrCast
It may be our summer hiatus, but we are bringing you weekly updates from Wall Street, Washington, and The World. Join Michael Farr as he gives his insight into this week's markets movements. We've backed down from the highs, but this is still an expensive market -- but you can still find value. In Washington, the debt ceiling negotiations have begun and the Fed convenes in ten days. Moving on to The World, the tensions in Iran don't seem any closer to resolving. Michael Farr shares his reflections on the week -- because even though it's summer, the markets don't go to the beach.
July 19, 2019
This Isn’t Going to Turn into Groundhog Day Is It?
It’s a holiday week, but there’s too much going on for the FarrCast to start our summer break just yet! Michael starts with a discussion on the markets with Jim Iuorio. We are at record highs, but there could be danger if we break away from fundamentals. Jim reminds us there is no sure way to time the market – don’t be greedy and rebalance your risk, but remember the markets can stay irrational. Political analyst Dan Mahaffee calls in for a two segments – with the events of the last week there is too much for just one! At the G20, trade negotiations got back on track, but nothing is really any closer to resolution. Dan says we are starting the cycle of negotiations again, but there is too much of a gap between China and the US. The markets are happy for now things are getting worse but the impasse over economic structure, technology transfer, and state control remain. In the third segment, Dan talks about the other big event of the weekend, the President setting foot in North Korea. The event has significant symbolic ramifications that could evolve into very concrete problems. The Iranians may be learning lessons from North Korea that we’d rather not teach. Is there an off-ramp for the Iranians in their confrontation with the US? Bringing you conversations with experts and insiders on the issues that shape our world, it’s The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
July 02, 2019
Stephanie Link/TIAA: No Recession in Sight; Ned Davis: Don't Make the BIG Mistake
Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link to the FarrCast. She reminds us, you can't get obsessed with the day to day and as a long term investor you have to look at the underlying health of the economy. Interest rates are low and employment is strong, so while the growth is slowing. There are so many moving parts, the narrative is always changing, so look for quality. Dan Mahaffee joins us remotely after a first hand exploration of the struggles of infrastructure on the East Coast. The Iranian situation has seen a climb-down from the President on military retaliation, but a new series of sanctions targeting the shadow economy of the Iranian hierarchy. Dan walks us through the dynamics in Iran -- and how the economic pain in Iran has served to turn some of the rural populace towards the clerics, not away. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Ned Davis, founder of Ned Davis Research -- one of the greats of the business. Ned begins by telling us from his study of crisis events -- news may cause market turmoil but it's usually short-term. It's important to watch fundamentals and ignore the noise. Ned shares his wisdom and insight from his objective, data-driven research. He's cautious, but still thinks the markets have room to run. Every time is different, and Ned tells us what he's watching.
June 26, 2019
The Fed’s Wrong, No China Deal, and Stupid Healthcare Expenses
We’ve got another new FarrCast for you tonight! The markets surged today and we are within 1% of all-time highs. The situation is so desperate that the markets need the Fed to step in to prop the markets up. Well, that doesn’t make sense when you say it out loud, but Michael does his best to explain that what the markets want might not be what the economy needs. Dan Mahaffee joins us to explain the third rail of Beijing politics. It’s been a remarkable week in Hong Kong, and the situation has ramifications beyond the port, and indeed beyond China as well. Our special guest tonight is Richard Thompson, one of the leading experts on pharmaceutical policy in the US. He begins by explaining how the trade fight impacts drug prices (it does!) Pharma regulation is a tangled web and is littered with policies that had unintended consequences both for medicine and for the economy. Dick helps to untangle and give us a clearer picture of the issues that impact the economy, the markets, your wallet, and everyone’s health.
June 19, 2019
Powell Is Playing for the Record Books Now
The markets roared up this week, but Michael is worried the markets might be a little too ebullient and has talked itself into thinking a Fed cut is coming. And perhaps Chair Powell gave some fuel on that fire. Michael says that pulling the trigger and lowering rates too soon might cause the kind of imbalances that can threaten the bull market. Dan Mahaffee joins for the second segment for a wide ranging discussion on the latest from China, the White House, and Capital Hill, and gives us a quick preview of the G20 meeting. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Robert Frick, Corporate Economist from Navy Federal Credit Union, the largest credit union in the country. With eight million members at Navy, Bob is an advocate for their jobs, and is always looking at the labor markets. Listen his for his thoughts on the slow down in job creation numbers -- concerned, perhaps, but its still a strong economy. Coming to you every week with insights from experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street, and The World.
June 12, 2019
It’s Like Caddyshack for the Markets
It’s been a tumultuous week on Wall Street, Washington, and in the World, and the FarrCast is here to try and bring a little insight. We begin with Jim Iuorio from the CME, and he says that it looks like the Fed has the markets back – whether you agree with it or not, it’s a good time to be in equities. But Jim cautions – sometimes selling begets selling, even if there is no real story why. And he shares his “Costanza Theory” on trading. Dan Mahaffee walks us through the latest tariff tantrum. For the moment, Stephen Miller is outpunching everyone in the White House. The President sees himself as an innovator and thinking outside of the box, but it is threatening his economic success, and rural America is running out of patience. Les Munson joins for the third segment with his quarter of a century of experience on Capital Hill. The President is getting boxed in – and Les tells us its from a place we might not expect. With the experts and insiders every week – it’s The FarrCast!
June 05, 2019
Maximum Impact, Minimum Ouch
It’s another great FarrCast this week, and Michael kicks it off with Kenny Polcari. Kenny says investors should be worried, but be aware – the conversation has changed and the negatives can start feeding on themselves. Markets reprice when given new information and the pullback on the change of China trade talks is no surprise. Opportunities can arise because the algos and short term trades usually overreact to bad news. You can’t just throw a dart it, but a buying opportunity may be coming. Dan Mahaffee joins for the second segment and talks about what the President is not doing with China. A cooling off period has begun – how much is posturing and how much is a start of a new cold war? There is no playbook and while both countries want a compromise, there are limits to how far they will go. The impasse will continue over the summer as Dan explains the significance of the Tiananmen Square anniversary to the Party. Special guest Jack Bouroudjian joins for the third segment – he’s been nothing short of prescient on his previous FarrCast appearances and he polishes up his crystal ball for us. But first, he tells us about his one long term hold that’s worked out for him (33 years!) Jack sees the China trade war as necessary pain to protect IP not just for the short term interests of the markets, but for the health of both economies over the long term. He shares what he sees in the bond markets, more a foreign exchange story than a recession indicator. And Jack’s bullish call on markets for 2020. It’s the FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street, and The World.
May 29, 2019
I Think I'd Be Crying Before the First Daily Double
Welcome to the FarrCast! Markets moved down! Markets moved up! Well, that's what markets do -- Michael reminds that it's buy low, not sell low, that's the idea. The economy, and the markets, are ok, not great, definitely nervous, but ok. Dan Mahaffee joins us and it's been another interesting week in the Washington, beginning with a legal loss for the President. Dan walks us through the next steps and how the legal story winds along for some time. But perhaps outside of the beltway, people aren't concerned -- instead they are looking for normalcy and therein lies the story of the Democratic candidates for President. For the world we have James Pethokoukis from the American Enterprise Institute. From the first days of the Trump administration everyone points to infrastructure for possible middle ground that everyone can agree on. Jim says there has been great political theater, and we can expect more tomorrow when the Chuck & Nancy show arrives at the White House. There is a lot of uncertainty about growth --and there is a chance of recession -- but there is a chance of a productivity improvements and a sustained expansion.
May 22, 2019
Art of the Deal Translated into Mandarin
It’s a new FarrCast and the markets are swinging back and forth. Volatility is with us and it can be frightening, but Michael reminds us – sell high, buy low. It’s not a time to be chasing markets up then selling as we hit turbulence. Dan Mahaffee gives us insight into what is happening in Beijing as the trade war escalates. China’s historical vision tell them to avoid evening appearing to kowtow to the West and the US, and they feel they have an advantage not dealing with a domestic election cycle. The hardliners are in the ascendency and Dan doesn’t see any climb down soon. Stepping back, Dan points out that China, for all of their authoritarian issue and atrocious human rights record is a growing and vibrant country. The US cannot contain China -- How do we compete? For the world segment, Michael welcomes Martin Barnes, Chief Economist for BCA Research. What does trade war mean for the economy? There aren’t many precedents, but the 1930s are one, and it didn’t go well. Martin says he doesn’t see anything that dire, but it’s definitely bad news for the economy. Michael and Martin move the discussion on to the Federal Reserve and the pitfalls of monetary policy – and what they are getting right (so far.) Monetary policy is a blunt instrument, and it’s inevitable the Fed will eventually zig when they should have zagged. But for all of the trade uncertainty, as long as the Fed stays on the sidelines, Martin is constructive on the markets for the rest of the year.
May 15, 2019
Wow We Got a Lot of Metaphors This Week
Jim Iuorio says the pullback is real -- but it's not awful. A shakeout isn't necessarily a bad thing because it exposes weaknesses in the system, and we were comfortably at highs. The technical level that worries Jim is still a distance off -- 2825, and he wouldn't be surprised if we test it. The Fed is still sitting on the sidelines, and Jim is constructive on the rest of the year, but there will be a period of turbulence -- and perhaps a buying opportunity as it subsides. China is on everyone's mind, and political analyst Dan Mahaffee lived and studied there and is one of the Washington experts not just on what plays in DC, but plays in Beijing. No one in Washington, it seems, is comfortable with President Trump's negotiating style, but is conceding it might just work. Moving inside the Capitol Building, there is growing discontent with the Executive Branch's defiance of Legislative Oversight. If the impasses continue, the House may step up the pressure. We continue the conversation on DC (and back to China) with veteran journalist Mark Hamrick. Mark sees a resurgence of the center in American politics. Does Wall Street care? Mark says he doesn't think so: history tells us the markets do well in Democratic administrations and devoid of radical change, the capital markets chug along.
May 08, 2019
Plagiarism Now Seems Kind of Quaint
It's another great FarrCast this week and we kick it off with the return of Kenny Polcari! Markets are drifting upwards. Kenny says a lot of good news is already priced in and be prepared for a stall. Yet even after 25% up from the Christmas lows, Kenny remains productive on the markets. A well designed portfolio should So much to talk about in DC, and Dan Mahaffee begins with Schumer and Pelosi visiting the President and talking infrastructure. Everyone seemed to be happy and agreed spending two trillion dollars is a good idea (but no word as to where the money comes from.) Trump is suing to keep his finances secret. Dan says that Congress will continue to push investigations, but try and avoid impeachment. Dan closes with a quick overview of the Democratic nominees and recalls the Will Rogers quote, "I don't belong to an organized political party. I'm a Democrat." For The World segment, we are privileged to welcome Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz. Neil and Michael begin with the big picture: how the political and economic cycle of globalization that began with Reagan and Thatcher is merging into something else. The landscape is changing and Neil travels the globe and his crystal ball is as clear as anyone's. The changes we are seeing could have long term implications for trade, and ultimately for the dollar. Neil says a recession isn't close -- but could be forming on the horizon.
May 01, 2019
Trees Don’t Always Grow to the Sky
Markets made new highs today and The FarrCast welcomes special guest, Chief Economist from Wells Fargo, Jay Bryson. We start with an expert trader Steve Weiss. In the short term, markets, Steve says, are about expectations as much as anything. Sentiment turned so sour and the markets lowered expectations so much going into earnings season that the expectations were easy to beat. And so the markets march on. Steve says the underlying fundamentals are ok – and while he’s not wildly bullish, he’s constructive on the rest of the year. In the second segment, political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins us. The Democratic field just gets larger – and candidates are jockeying for attention, which doesn’t always lead to good policy proposals. The Mueller investigation isn’t leaving the headlines anytime soon, and Dan tells us what the winding path leads to next. Jay Bryson joins to talk about the broader world economy and he says the economy is doing pretty well right now; sure we downshifted a little from last year, but we didn’t stall. He explains why growing debt is a concern, but not a worry keeping him up at night. He doesn’t foresee a recession in view and explains recessions are caused by one of two things: unexpected events (which by definition you can’t expect) and financial imbalances (think housing 10 years ago, tech 20 years ago, commercial real estate 30 years ago.) Right now, nothing is wildly out of balance. Farr makes the case that Jay Bryson should be the next Fed Governor. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!
April 24, 2019
I'm Worried That I'm Not Worried
We start with market expert Jim Iuorio calling in from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. After all of the hand-wringing, the markets are moving higher, and now closing in on the all time highs. Jim says he feels good, and that worries him a little bit. There might not be much more good news to add into the soup. Is there room for disappointment? Jim tells where he the next leg up, why it stalls, and where it goes from there. A holiday weekend is coming up and in DC that means Mueller time. Dan Mahaffee joins and tells us what we won't learn on Thursday when the redacted report will come out -- and where the next fights lie. Both sides will see what they want to see. Looking forward, the Mueller report won't change anyone's mind, can we move on to discussions about what matters to people's daily lives, and pocketbooks. Special guest Tony Fratto joins us for the third segment. Tony is a veteran of the Bush Administration (and campaigns.) We begin talking about Mayor Pete. Tony says Buttigieg is a serious, and genuine thinker. Is there room for reasoned debate and thoughtful policy in American politics? Tony has been in DC since 1991. He says living in DC gets easier year after year, but professionally, it's never been more raw. We close with looping around to the economy. Is 3000 within reach? Farr says yes.
April 17, 2019
Special: Innovation in China (and Coffee and Joy!)
It’s a special FarrCast. On this week’s regular show, guest Chris Campbell from Yum Brands China shared some of the details of doing business in China. In the special, Michael welcomes Chris back for an extra segment for a deeper dive. China expert Dan Mahaffee stays on and we learn about making an archtypical American brand – KFC – into a uniquely successful Chinese business. Listen for a fascinating look at the interactions of a changing culture, emerging middle class, and new technologies (that you may see at your KFC in coming years.) It’s about more than chicken – it’s a look into the cross-cultural reach of international business. “The interview with Chris Campbell regarding YUM China may include ‘forward looking statements’ within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended. We intend all such forward-looking statements in this interview to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.”
April 10, 2019
Ten Year Money Sometimes Forgets It’s Ten Year Money
First up on tonight’s FarrCast it’s Josh Brown from CNBC and Ritholz Wealth Management. Josh and Michael talk about where every investment relationship begins – not with what security to buy, but with what the investor’s goals are. Josh tells why he’s not afraid of a recession, and shares the one thing he is absolutely certain of. (It’s not what you think!) Next up it’s our senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee. Sec’y Nielsen is out at Homeland Security – and there are implications beyond just the border. The Mueller investigation has had its first leaks, but is everyone just sick of it now? The cracks are beginning to show in the Democratic party between the moderates and the progressives. Dan takes us through DC – the gift that keeps on giving. We have a special third segment. We keep hearing that doing business in China is different. We have a guest who knows first hand what doing business in China means: Chris Campbell, a Director of Yum Brands China. He was the architect of the spinoff of Yum China and they now employ 450,000 in China. Chris talks about their business model and how they navigate government regulations. It’s The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World “The interview with Chris Campbell regarding YUM China may include ‘forward looking statements’ within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended. We intend all such forward-looking statements in this interview to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.”
April 10, 2019
You Don't Learn Much from the Second Kick of the Mule
In the past, the yield curve inversion has been a pretty good indicator of a recession. Jim Iuorio joins and explains, technically (but simply) why this time is different. Jim says there isn't much to be scared about -- except other people being scared. Eventually a recession will come, but Jim says right now, the economy is broadly in good shape. He shares his concerns, and what he's watching coming over the horizon. There might be some bumps in the market as the economy shifts into a new gear. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk what's going on in DC. The talk in DC begins with the Southern Border. Dan breaks down the forces for migration. It's different from the economic migration of decades past as Central American families flee violence. There are short-term and long-term issues, and all have economic, political, and humanitarian impacts. In the White House, the President has shifted again on healthcare, and on the Hill, the GOP has collective sigh of relief. Michael closes with his outlook on the world -- we are climbing a wall of worry, and that's not a bad place to be.
April 03, 2019
The President Might Not Drink But He’s Enjoying Mueller Time
It’s the FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street and the World! We start on Wall Street as Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link. The markets have twisted and turned as the yield curve has flattened, but Stephanie says it’s no time to panic. She is looking long term and it’s not rosy – but it’s not bad. Michael moves on to Washington and Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about the policy implications of the Mueller report. There are opportunities for progress but at least for now, both sides are playing to their base. For the third segment, Heather Long, economics correspondent from The Washington Post calls in to talk about the bigger world. Every year the first quarter brings bad news – Heather shares what she’s looking for in a spring bounce. As long as the consumer is ok, the economy will keep chugging along.
March 27, 2019
It's Easy to Yell at a Panda
Welcome to another great FarrCast! Michael welcomes back Kenny Polcari. It's been a pretty good year so far, but he expects a little sideways movement. There has been a lot of good news priced in (and the Fed gave the markets some good news today) and there could be some shocks along the way. On the whole, the economy is sound and Kenny says stay the course, and watch for opportunities to buy. For the second segment we move from Wall St to Washington, and senior analyst Dan Mahaffee is our guide. Not everyone is running for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but it seems like it. We are in the age of social network campaigning: sensationalism works but is it healthy? Dan is the Director of Policy for the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress -- and there is much to study. What in the world is going on with Brexit? When the experts aren't sure, they go to their experts and we go to Andy Keiser. Andy is a national security expert with two decades of experience, but he makes clear, no one has experienced anything like this.
March 21, 2019
Calling It Dog's Breakfast Is an Insult to What I Feed My Dog
Michael welcomes Jack Bouroudjian, legendary trader and economist from UCX in Chicago. When Jack was last with us, it was just before the market bottomed. He told us what the markets needed to turn at Christmas, and he was spot on. He shares what he's looking for next -- and it's something every investor needs to hear. The Speaker says the President isn't worth impeaching; Dan Mahaffee says the Democrats are opting for guerrilla warfare instead of trench warfare. Brexit is back at the top of the headlines, and PM May was walloped in Parliament again. It's yet another impasse for Parliament and there are no easy or obvious solutions. Les Munson adds that the dreams of an independent UK are, ironically, dying on an Irish border. For the third segment, the conversation shifts to China -- and special guest Lester Munson. Does President Xi need a deal more than President Trump? Whether the tariffs have had an impact on the Chinese or not is unclear, and perhaps unimportant. The details of any deal matter, but the details of how to get there might not be.
March 13, 2019
Are We Just a Ball of Yarn and They're a Large Cat?
Jim Iuorio joins in with a check in on the markets. Listeners to the FarrCast know that when the markets bounced on Christmas Eve, there would be a pause in the rally about 2645 (and there was) and then at 2800 (and here we are.) Jim says to break higher we need two things: a real (even if incomplete) agreement with China, AND the Fed doesn't re-pivot and turn hawkish. If we see a "grace period" Jim thinks the markets will power through the 2800 level. For the second segment, Dan Mahaffee joins us -- it's a big week in DC. Trump walked away from the table in VIetnam -- The President saw a no deal was better than a bad deal with North Korea. Dan explains Robert Lighthizer's task: negotiating any enforcement of a deal with China. It's a huge task, but incremental progress seems to being made. Dan says we get a deal, but it will be vague, and there will likely have a "snapback" tariff mechanism. Meanwhile in DC, the Democrats are sorting out the 2020 contenders, and Dan says a Biden announcement appears imminent. Michael closes the show with an explanation of how the supply solutions to the Financial Crisis are reaching their limits. The slow growth environment of the economy has deep roots, and lower returns on investment are likely to be the norm for sometime. But the future isn't bleak -- ok IS ok! Lower returns doesn't mean no return at all.
March 06, 2019
Making His Own Headwinds
With the Federal Reserve at the top of the headlines this week, we have a special FarrCast beginning with special guest Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, former President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, now Distinguished Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, . The Fed has shifted into pause and the balance sheet is moving towards normalization. What does that mean for the economy? For the markets? Dan Mahaffee joins us from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress -- and there are so many things to study just today! The one point we may have learned from the Cohen testimony is that even if the Mueller investigation is wrapping up, there are other investigations lining up. Elsewhere on Capitol Hill, Trade Negotiator Robert Lighthizer was testifying -- and it looks like the Trump Administration wants some wins, even if it doesn't mean full resolution. Plus Korea, India, Pakistan, and more -- it's a full plate. To bring it together we welcome back audience favorite Tom Heath from the Washington Post. Tom cuts through the noise -- and reminds us the market has rallied and the economy is sound. Tom reminds us the lesson is the long term investor needs to stay in the market or you'll miss the legs up. We will have a recession sooner or later, but probably later. It takes a patience -- the calendar is the long term investor's friend.
February 28, 2019
Here’s My LeBron Moment
Snow is coming to DC and Michael is back in studio to bring you another great FarrCast! Kenny Polcari calls in from his new gig, and says the markets feel good. The markets are expecting a trade deal, but not getting too far ahead of itself. Markets are reasonably priced after rising out of the despair of December. The markets started low, but Kenny sees a piece meal trade deal coming together, and the markets having a constructive year. Dan Mahaffee is back on the FarrCast to give us the insight from Capitol Hill. The China deal still has a long way to go, and China’s history speaks to a deep cultural resistance to a technology deal. Both sides need a win, so financial access issues and tariff suspension might be declared a win, but deep divides remain. Moving on to Europe, the Munich Security Conference has shown how deep the divide is now between the US and our allies. Yet Dan says unless it hits pocketbooks, ultimately American voters don’t care. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Greg Valliere to the studio. Greg has long been one of the leading policy analysts writing for the financial industry. Greg parses the latest moves from the Democrats – and how those moves strengthen Trump with his base. In a wide ranging conversation, Greg and Michael handicap the early stages of the 2020 Presidential race, the Fed and interest rates, and the forecast for the economy. To subscribe to Greg Valliere’s newsletter, Capital Insights, go to: https://perspectives.agf.com/subscribe/
February 20, 2019
We've Had a Pretty Good Year in the Last Month
It's a new FarrCast! The markets are up 17% off the Christmas lows. Will the rally continue? As we hit the next significant resistance level, Michael talks with Jim Baka of Calamos Wealth Management on some of the tools available to the long term investor. Senior Political Analyst Dan Mahaffee says the President might not be happy -- but with a deal in place in Congress, another shutdown isn't likely. The next fight is over where the Administration is going to shift money around to buy more wall that what the Congress will appropriate money for. Dan moves on to China -- the rhetoric has calmed down, but the two sides really are far apart. Issues remain, but there is enough progress that Dan thinks the President will postpone the March 1 tariff deadline. Moving on to Brexit -- the Brexiteers want to leave the EU club but dictate the terms to the club. Dan isn't as optimistic as he was on a second referendum, but thinks some delay to the exit is coming. In the third segment, Michael welcomes John Morris of Crestwood Advisors. Michael and John dive into the rally. How far can it go? The economy is plodding along -- John thinks volatility is hiding now, but not going away. He's confident that the markets will be constructive this year, but there will be potholes along the way, and even a correction isn't out of the question.
February 13, 2019
The State of the State of the Union
The FarrCast is back and thawed out after a week in deep freeze! Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio to talk on the markets: we’ve seen a 16% rise since the Christmas Eve lows. Jim says there has been a lot of good news and we may well drift higher, but there is a China sized (& shaped) roadblock up ahead. He sees positives ahead for 2019 and tells us where he sees potholes along the way. Dan Mahaffee joins us for an expert’s view on the State of the Union. The President painted with a broad brush, as SotU speeches tend to do, and began to set outlines of the 2020 campaign. Plus, Dan gives his thoughts on another shutdown. There are whispers on the Hill that the White House is considering forcing another to blame the Democrats and “clean the slate” for five week shutdown that just ended. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Lester Munson, who brings over a quarter century of experience in DC and insight into the state of play. He says Trump needs to think about messaging for the suburbs if he is to sustain his political life. Michael and Les move on to talk about the nomination of David Malpass as President of the World Bank. Though Malpass has been a noted World Bank critic, Les says that ultimately his appointment could be a great boon for the World Bank. It's The Farrcast—your insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
February 07, 2019
Well It Feels Like a Millennia
On tonight's FarrCast, Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link. She is one of the leading minds, and leading voices on Wall Street and she share her thoughts on how market volatility can be an opportunity for the long term investor. The markets turned down today, apparently because of the realization that global growth is slowing -- but that's old news if you've been listening to the FarrCast. Listen for what Michael and Stephanie see coming next. The shutdown continues and Dan Mahaffee gives us the lay of the land in DC. The President's support is faltering, and as 800,000 Federal workers approach the second payday without a check, the pain is increasing. Each side is dug in their trenches, but they are being pushed out to begin the work towards a compromise. In the third segment, Michael talks China with one of the leading experts on Chinese economy, politics and culture in Washington -- the FarrCast's very own Dan Mahaffee! Last week it seemed that everything was coming together for a trade deal and today it all seemed to come apart. In the More Mahaffee segment Dan walks us through the complex transition that China is facing: not just economically but socially. Dan predicts we will see progress on trade, and some agreement, but resolution may take decades.
January 23, 2019
Peering into the Corner of the Attic
It's a snowy FarrCast! 2019 is off to a good start in the markets -- there's plenty to make up from the dive at the end of 2018. Michael reviews the markets as they've found their footing. Things aren't great -- but they aren't bad. We welcome Mark Hamrick, veteran economic journalist, former head of the National Press Club and currently chief economist at Bankrate.com. Michael and Mark have a free ranging conversation on Brexit, the market outlook, and a dive into a new consumer survey from Bankrate. Seventy percent of the economy is driven by the consumer, and what the consumer thinks and feels is an important barometer of where the economy is going. In our second segment, Dan Mahaffee joins to talk DC and the World. He discusses the pendulum swings in politics, and the decline of the middle ground -- and the concern that also can diminish the middle class. We move on the Mueller investigation; the turn the investigation has taken is more to counterintelligence. Dan outlines the trajectory of the climax of the investigation. Finally, the Brexit deal was rejected by British Parliament. Dan says Teresa May will survive the no-confidence vote, and that a second referendum is becoming more and more of a possibility.
January 16, 2019
Pulling Down the Wallpaper
It's a New Year and it's a new FarrCast! We start with Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. There are a ton of moving parts, Jim says, and he breaks down why the markets broke down in December, and what they need to see for the next leg up. Dan Mahaffee joins to tell us the state of play in Washington, DC. The holidays brought one domino fell after another. The impacts of the shutdown are beginning to be felt as TSA, USDA, and other acronyms are closed. The perfect is the enemy of the good, Dan reminds us, and he says that to expect a dramatic and symbolic solution, but maybe not substantive. Michael welcomes special guest Jon Najarian for our third segment. Markets hate uncertainty, but Jon reminds us that uncertainty can be good for investors because pockets of value can form. It's not all clear moving forward in 2019 -- but there are reasons to be optimistic. The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.
January 11, 2019
It's a special Year End FarrCast!
Every year, Michael picks his top ten. This year, there are bargains to be had after the markets have tumbled. What are the prospects in a market repricing environment? Farr, Miller & Washington is a "buy-to-hold" investment manager, which means we make each investment with the intent to hold the position for a period of 3-5 years. Nevertheless, in each of the past thirteen Decembers I have selected and invested personally in ten of the stocks we follow with the intention of holding for just one year. These are companies that I find especially attractive in light of their valuations or their potential to benefit from economic developments. I hold an equal dollar amount in each of the positions for the following year, and then I reinvest in the new list. This is my Top 10 for 2019, listed in no particular order. This year's Top Ten represent a nice combination of growth and defensiveness. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 industry sectors are represented, and their average long-term estimated growth rate (in EPS) is well in excess of the overall market. Also on average, these companies are much larger than the average S&P 500 company while carrying an average dividend yield of about 2%. Results have been good in some years and not as good in others. I will sell my 2018 names on Monday, December 31st and buy the following names that afternoon. The reader should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable. These are not recommendations to buy or sell securities. There is risk of losing principal. Past performance is no indication of future results. If you are interested in any of these names, please call us or your financial advisor to discuss.
December 31, 2018
Dovish Bubble Wrap
Three trading days until Christmas and Santa Claus and his rally are nowhere to be seen. We welcome Jim Iuorio from the CME to talk about the markets. It's an uncertain time, and Jim says the getting tomorrow's Fed meeting in the rear view mirror will help. On the FarrCast, we say "emotion is the foe of the long-term investor" and right now the focus is on Jerome Powell -- and he needs to show no emotion and calm the emotional beast of the markets down. It's not just Wall Street providing news this week, and Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about Washington, Beijing and places in between. Dan notes that the President's pressure on the Fed puts Jerome Powell in a difficult position -- even if the data supports a pause, it's important to demonstrate independence from political pressure. Moving on to China, Dan points out where China is willing to make concessions, and what their long view goals are. The China story isn't going away, and we'll be talking more in 2019. It's the last FarrCast of the year, and for our big finale Michael welcomes one of our greatest guest, Jack Bouroudjian, chief economist for UCX. Jack is a trader, an investor, and absolutely the expert's expert. Jack returns us to a theme from the beginning of the year -- repatriation. It's been propping up the dollar and suppressing inflation. Still, he agrees we will see the "dovish rate hike." Jack gives his thoughts what the themes that will govern what moves the markets in 2019. It's a FarrCast that you can't miss -- our guests don't just read the headlines, they look at what the next headlines will be.
December 18, 2018
Eventful. Well, that's one way to put it. Jim Iuorio joins us from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and gives us the technical take. It's not voodoo: the levels and patterns technicians watch are reliable predictors of the sentiments of market participants. Jim tells us what he watches to get a handle on what the collective psychological sentiment of the markets. What happened at The White House today? Really, what was that? Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the President and Congress joins us and his study really helps sort the political theater. Neither side is winning, and suddenly a government shutdown looks more probable. The only place it seems common ground might be found is spending (well borrowing) more money.
December 12, 2018
Will Xi or Won't Xi?
The market dropped 800! Don't panic -- listen to the FarrCast! Jim Iuorio joins us, and he's not worried about the yield curve, maybe a little about trade. The markets are behaving like markets do -- and sometimes they go down. Keep an eye on the long term: it was an awful day for sure, but relax and keep to your discipline. President Trump returned from Argentina and the G20 and said he'd made the biggest deal of his life. Yet the bond market didn't move. Dan Mahaffee joins us from Washington to parse what happened -- and what didn't happen. Dan is a China hand, having lived and studied there, and he gives some insight into the pressures that President Xi faces at home. Finally in our third segment, Michael gives tribute on the passing of the forty-first President. Michael reflects on his acquaintance with George H. W. Bush and the life and example of the President. President Bush believed in a kinder America and devoted his life to creating a better America. Thank you for service, Mr. President. Godspeed.
December 05, 2018
East German Swimmers & The Fed
We hope you had a great Thanksgiving! The FarrCast is back and the markets seem to be settling down. Michael welcomes Kenny Polcari who says the markets are waiting on geo-political events. The economy is sound and consumers just spent a record amount on Black Friday. Michael asks Kenny the question on everyone's mind: will there be a Santa Claus rally? Breaking news! Just before we went to air, Trump gave an interview to the Washington Post, and what an interview. Dan Mahaffee from the Center of the Presidency and Congress joins to talk about the President's comments on GM and the Fed. Remember what we've said on the FarrCast: the economy and the markets aren't the same thing. Lester Munson joins for our third segment. He says he's looking forward to season three of the Trump show -- great new characters and lots of fighting. The ratings should be great! Moving on the G20 summit, Les is looking for a lot of great tango metaphors from the summit, but not a lot more. President Xi is feeling pressure though, and Les says the Administration has done a good job of lowering expectations. Finally, Les says Trump's path to re-election in 2020 looks very rocky two years out.
November 28, 2018
We're Followed By All of the Finest Treasury Secretaries
Remember when interest rates spiked upwards? Well, the markets are still trying to find to stability. Kenny Polcari told us that we have to test the lows of October again and then the markets can begin to build again. Rates are rising, and the markets have to decide what the proper valuation is in the new environment. Kenny gives us a quick primer on the fragmentation of the markets, and how that exaggerates the volatility. Michael welcomes Matt Leffingwell to talk about DC post-midterms. It's been a while since we've heard from Matt, and he walks us through the chatter on the Hill. The tech industry is watching for privacy legislation, the financials are watching for new regulation, and everyone is looking at infrastructure. Leffingwell says we will see gridlock across most areas, but drug pricing may be a point of agreement. When the markets are confused, Mona Mahajan, US Investment Strategist from Allianz GI, has a voice that makes sense. Michael welcomes Mona on to peel back the layers. The US economy is strong, but will the momentum continue in the face of trade difficulties, rising rates, and slower global growth? Mona makes the case that we aren't heading into a recession, so the markets will likely find the technical bottom and move forward. To keep with Kenny Polcari's thoughts, you can subscribe to his daily note at: www.kennypolcari.com For Michael Farr's weekly Market Commentary, subscribe at www.farrmiller.com and click on "Market Commentary" To read Mona Mahajan's Outlook, go to: https://us.allianzgi.com/individual/our-firm/our-experts/our-experts-details/mona-mahajan
November 21, 2018
What We Learned from TV Re-Runs
t's another wild week in the markets! Jim Iuorio joins Michael and reminds us -- you can lose money in the markets, and when we forget that the markets slap us in the face. You can't just shovel money into the market anymore, but have to have a plan. Jim has a plan, and shares some of the things he's looking for in the data as we come to the end of the year. Wild week in the markets? It's nothing compared to what is happening in Washington this week. Dan Mahaffee joins from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress to sort it out. The electorate is changing, but are the parties keeping up? Amidst the chaos, there is some good news: Secretary Mnuchin is working hard to lay groundwork for a Xi-Trump meeting at the end of the month. Dan is a China expert, and has deep insight into the long view the Chinese are taking. For our special guest, we welcome back Tom Heath from The Washington Post. Tom says he loves a good downturn -- and explains why. Tom has seen market downturns before, and if you have the stomach for them, they are a gift for the long term investor. It's a great new FarrCast! Listen in, have a laugh, and learn a little.
November 14, 2018
TINA Is in the ICU
It's the election FarrCast! Kenny Polcari calls in from the floor on the New York Stock Exchange. The markets had a big relief rally on Wednesday: split government is what the markets wanted to see. Then on Thursday, the markets breathed out. Kenny says we are in a seasonally strong time of year, but will likely test support before another leg up. Looking forward to 2019, Michael and Kenny say there is competition for money next year, and that's a good thing. We go to Washington with Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Dan pretty much called the election results right on: the suburbs turned towards the Democrats in the House, but the electoral map kept the Senate in GOP hands. Dan points out that divided government has historically produced significant legislation. Will we see the Art of the Deal President next year, or the Campaign Rally President? We continue to live in interesting times. For our special guest, tonight we have Greg Valliere, Chief Global Strategist for Horizon Investments. His career has been studying the links between DC policy and Wall St market movement. The 2018 midterms are over, and the 2020 campaign begins immediately, and Greg sees little getting done. He takes a little bit of a a contrarian view: gridlock is maybe not as good thing the markets think -- health care, infrastructure, and especially deficits all need attention. The important point for investors is the economic fundamentals are pretty sound, but Greg has some concerns that he shares. To subscribe to Greg Valliere's Daily Capitol Notes: http://www2.horizoninvestments.com/capitolnotes
November 09, 2018
The Market Soared! (But Hold On)
The market soared! Well, Kenny Polcari says hold on -- the Dow was up 400 points (and 250 of that in the last hour and a half today!) but we are still off 2000 from the highs. Kenny says it's not over yet, but the market is trying to build a base, but don't be surprised to see another test of the lows as the market digests the midterms. Is civility dead? That's the question Michael poses to DC expert Dan Mahaffee. The midterm campaigns are (over) heating, and we are one week from the election. Dan goes underneath the headlines and says there is some encouragement that civil discourse and debate might rise again in the Republic. For our third segment special guest, Michael welcomes Stephanie Link, fellow CNBC contributor and Head of Global Equities Research at Nuveen. This has been an extreme earnings season -- Stephanie says it's been "sell first and ask questions later." If you think long term (as Stephanie does) there are opportunities and the big picture, the fundamentals, are still good. We have to get through the midterms and the markets could find their feet.
October 31, 2018
A Fortnight Is About Two Weeks
October 22, 2018
Ganges, Potomac, and L'Etat C'est Moi (Oh My)
Welcome to the FarrCast! As always we start with the markets, and what a difference a week makes. The Dow ricocheted 500 points -- Kenny Polcari joins from the floor, and he says the pain isn't over yet, but it does seem like the markets are building a floor; Kenny says to watch for the lows creeping higher -- that's the good sign we want to see. It's early in earnings season, and while bottom line profits look good, the top line revenue growth is important and Michael and Kenny explain why. Senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the President and Congress calls in to give us the latest from Capital Hill. The President has been using the Stock Market as a scorecard for the economy, and that is becoming politically dangerous. Trump has said "my greatest threat" is the Federal Reserve. Looking abroad, Dan makes the point that while the US relationship with Saudi Arabia might not be a love match, the cost of the divorce is more than the cost of staying together -- expect realpolitik to outweigh outrage. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Mark Hamrick, longtime financial journalist, and current Washington Bureau Chief of Bankrate.com. We are living in a world of market gyrations, jawboning, and fake news. Mark talks about the importance of clear, verified information to the financial markets, and how as a journalists they plow through. Mark talks about the markets and how it's good for the investor that the Fed stays focused on their (apolitical) long-term goals.
October 16, 2018
Running To, and Running Away . . .
Markets are waffled as yield surged. Kenny Polcari joins us tonight and tells us why there is no reason to panic, and what to look for as earnings begin. Kenny is looking to the banks to get off to a good start, and is looking for another leg up before the end of the year. DC is the gift that keeps giving, and our senior political analyst, Dan Mahaffee helps to sort. Two weeks ago, Dan said Rosensteen stays and Kavanaugh goes -- Dan explains what got Kavanaugh over the line. Breaking news from DC today as Nikki Haley has resigned as Ambassador to the UN. There might be some musical chairs after the midterms, and Dan unpacks some of the rumors flying inside the Beltway. We welcome as our special guest, CJ Corneliussen from Metavivor.org, an organization working to improve funding and support for metastatic cancer. She explains the economics of cancer, and cancer research. There has been an emphasis on prevention and treatment in cancer research, but CJ helps us to understand how the profile of the funding has human, and economic costs.
October 10, 2018
Markets Underestimate the Fed, Kavanaugh Goes, Rosenstein Stays
Wow, what a week! What will we talk about? We start with the markets and Jim Iuorio -- there has been a lot of talk about a bull market, but Jim points out that much of 2015 and 2016 traded sideways. Corrections can be time or in price. There is a lot of great news lately -- consumer confidence, employment, median income. But there is concern -- will the higher rates eventually break the rally. Iuorio is optimistic but is worried about the word "accelerate" coming from the Fed tomorrow. Anything to talk about in DC this week? Supreme Court, midterms, resignations, oh my! The Kavanaugh nomination is trouble, and Dan Mahaffee says right now the votes might not be there. Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein was said to resign, then didn't, and now he's meeting with President on Thursday. Dan says right now the Democrats midterm strategy is the Napoleonic dictum: don't get in your adversaries way while he's making a mistake. In the third segment, Michael welcomes Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, past President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed is definitely going to announce a rate hike, but Dr. Lacker explains what the Fed is discussing as they look forward. He's been in the room in previous meetings, and he thinks the markets are under-estimating how many rate hikes are coming in 2019. It's a packed week. Listen in to the FarrCast and unpack it!
September 25, 2018
So You're Saying It's Coercion
Michael opens tonight's show with an explanation of financial discipline -- investors talk about it, but what does it mean? How does rebalancing help manage your risk? Michael brings on bond expert Andy Mathes tonight. He tells us what he sees in the bond markets, and what that tells us about where the equity markets go next? Last week, Dan Mahaffee said that the Kavanaugh nomination should proceed apace unless something cataclysmic happens. Tonight Mahaffee says "I think we have a cataclysm here." The Kavanaugh hearings calls into question the nature of the Supreme Court: is the Court a political court or a constitutional court? The FarrCast welcomes back Lester Munson, former chief of staff for Senator Mark Kirk. Les has spent over 25 years on the Hill and working in foreign relations. Les and Dan have a lively discussion on the escalation of the trade war. How vulnerable is China? What does "winning" a trade war even mean? Listen in and learn about today's movement in the bond market to the future of the Chinese economy, and everything in between.
September 18, 2018
Pulling a Circus Tent Over the Swamp
When the S&P 500 set a new high on October 21, Kenny Polcari was the FarrCast saying he'd like the markets trade sideways for a bit AND he expected September to be okay. Now we are in the middle of September and Kenny has been spot on. Michael and Kenny talk about what comes next. Dan Mahaffee joins to look at DC: there is an unprecedented disconnect between the health of the economy and the popularity of the President. Trump fatigue is setting in, and the GOP looks to lose the House. Tom Heath of the Washington Post joins us to bring his long term perspective. You have to expect the markets to go down. You have to expect the markets to go up. That's what markets do -- make sure you know what your time horizon is for your investments, and don't panic. If you can't sleep at night worrying about your investment -- don't own it.
September 12, 2018
Playing Chess on Three Boards
It's the Chicago FarrCast! Jim Iuorio joins us from Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The markets had an excuse this week to back off with a little hint of wage inflation (remember February when a hint sent the market into a correction?) but the rally continues. The yield curve is flattening, but it's still positive. There might be a chink in the market's armor in the increasing rate environment. Chicago native Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress comes in and gives us a little more detail about the Mexico trade deal. The rhetoric is positive, but Dan tells us why the Canadian hurdle might still be a bigger jump (and why that impacts any deal with Mexico.) It's a big week in DC -- Sessions stays? Kavanaugh to be confirmed? And a few words on the late, great, Senator John McCain. For the long term look, Michael welcomes back Jack Bouroudjian, Chief Economist from UCX in Chicago -- six months ago on the FarrCast Jack said, "the easy money in this market has been made." Jack is watching the dollar, emerging markets, and he's concerned these highs are occurring at the wrong time. Is a late summer peak? Jack tells us the bond markets are telling us one thing and the equity markets another. It's a confused market -- Jack says to be very careful. Wall Street, The Hill, and The World -- The FarrCast covers it all! Listen and subscribe today!
August 29, 2018
Pleas, Convictions, and new Market Highs!
The FarrCast is back! People are coming back from vacation, and juries are returning with verdicts. Michael welcomes back the great Kenny Polcari to sort out what it means for the markets. Kenny says, in the short term, political noise might create volatility, but in the long-term does not price stocks. September is usually a rough month for equities, but Kenny thinks the markets hold up. UNLESS -- something comes out of left field. Dan Mahaffee joins from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, and explains what the news from the Manafort trial and Cohen plea agreement impacts the "blue wave." The Trump Administration keeps stomping on its own good news, and it means we are likely moving to divided government after the midterms. To start the new season, Michael welcomes one of the smartest market strategists in the business today, Mona Mahajan from Allianz Global. The year began with tax reform and the synchronized global growth story -- as the global story has fallen off, the US economy has remained robust. It's late in the cycle, yes there will be volatility, yes there will be rotation, but there could be value as well.
August 21, 2018
Republicans Hate Us... Democrats Hate Us... We Must Be Doing Something Right!
Jim Iuorio joins us from the floor of the Chicago Exchange to talk earnings and blue skies ahead. Dan Mahaffee discusses Iran, Russia and more tax cuts. It's hot in D.C. and it's hot on The FarrCast! Please Listen!
July 24, 2018
I'm Getting T-Shirts Made
It's a slow, languid summer week. The President met a few world leaders and held a press conference that got a little coverage, but there wasn't much . . . Oh who are we kidding? There is enough material for four shows this week. We've got Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange kicking us off with a look at the markets. There was moderately positive economic news on consumer spending and moderately dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, and the markets reacted to that news and ignored the noise from Brussels, London, & Helsinki. Dan Mahaffee joins in to talk about political risk. Michael welcomes former Asst Secy of the Treasury Tony Fratto. Michael opens the mics and Dan, Jim, and Tony take on the big economic picture. Is corporate debt a problem? Where is the next leg up in growth? What are the bonds telling us about the future? And if there is a blue wave in November, what does that mean for the markets? We even have a bonus segment to wrap it all up, and take a look at what next week will bring. It's a special FarrCast for a special week, and we've got the smartest guys in the room to dissect it all.
July 17, 2018
You Can Lose a Finger
Tariffs blows have been traded and DOOM is upon us. Well, maybe not -- the markets are adapting to the President's totally unprecedented style. Jim Iuorio joins us from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and tells why the sky isn't falling. Tom Heath and Jim talk about oil -- as a massive producer the US benefits from high oil, but hurts the consumer. Where is the sweet spot? Next up is regular Dan Mahaffee -- a Supreme Court nominee has been nominated. Mahaffee says that the Kavanaugh pick is likely to be the biggest lasting legacy of the Trump administration. How does it change what goes in the court? Markets don't like blowups at summits, and Mahaffee previews the NATO summit, and Trump's meeting with Putin. Our special guest Tom Heath from the Washington Post brings it all home for us. Tom's common sense and direct questions helps put everything in context. Right now the economy is chugging along. How does the big picture effect everyone's little picture? Download and listen today!
July 11, 2018
My Mom Would Be Really Excited
It's the holiday week edition of FarrCast! Kenny Polcari calls in from the floor of the NYSE and tells us how the markets are distorted by the low volumes on the holiday. Tariffs are to take effect on Friday -- Kenny tells us what to look for depending on how the news breaks, and what the tone is. It's a new quarter, and we look to other side of the tariff news: have we seen a peak in investor sentiment? Dan Mahaffee is Michael's guest for the second segment, and he gives us a preview of the fight for the Supreme Court, and how that may effect the midterms. Mitch McConnell refused a Senate vote for a year on the Merrick Garland nomination. Will there be blowback from the Democrats in the Senate? Can it be done before the election? Returning to join us as our special guest on the third segment is Andy Keiser, foreign policy expert. It's less than a month since the Singapore summit between the President and Kim Jong-Un. The heat has come off the rhetoric, but has anything really changed? Andy tells us we are just on the first steps of the marathon and Secretary Pompeo has a lot of work to do. There are plenty of other hotspots investors need to watch, and Andy helps us frame the world.
July 03, 2018
Freshman says the House will shift in November
It's another great FarrCast! The markets dive -- should Fred & Ethel be worried about their retirement accounts? All of the experts agree. The Dow dropped under it's 200 day moving average. Jim Iuorio says, "that means almost nothing to me." Iuorio says the bull market isn't over, but there are things out there that worry him. The Fed still has a tightrope act in the raising rate environment. Dan Mahaffee is with us again to explain the inexplicable -- the dysfunction of DC. This President negotiates in public, and it's something completely different than what we've seen before. It's chaotic -- but there is immense flexibility when orthodoxies are discarded. Michael welcomes as his special guest tonight, John Freshman, the insider's insider, and an expert on all things Washington. With 30 years of experience in the halls of Washington, John puts all of the movements of the markets and in DC in the context of the coming elections. Will we see divided government in the next Congress? Does it even matter? Download and listen today!
June 25, 2018
From Bombast to Photo Ops - Jaw Jaw is better than War War
Michael opens the show as he always does by checking in with Kenny Polcari to talk about the volatile day on Wall Street and the surprising news about GE. Next, Dan Mahafee from CSPC calls in to discuss the aftermath of the Singapore Summit, and the growing tension between the US and China over the trade war. And Michael wraps up by chatting with Mark Olson from Treliant Risk Advisors about the latest news from the Fed and whether the standard of living in the US will rise or decline in the coming years.
June 19, 2018
A Special Place in Hell (And Kenny Gets Bleeped)
The market was a big dud -- on the N. Korea news, and Kenny explains why the markets don't react too much to geo-political shifts. But later this week, the Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ all have announcements -- and markets move on monetary shifts. Kenny and Michael explain what the markets are looking for. Dan Mahaffee is the resident genius at FarrCast from the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress. And boy do we have a President and Congress to be studied. Dan doesn't makes sense of it all -- but he makes as much sense can be made. Trump makes nice with Kim Jong-Un, and throws bombs at the allies in the G7. And yet, amidst the nonsense, there are results. Tom Heath joins from The Washington Post to put it all together for us, and Michael & Tom sort through the noise. The markets are drifting up, and the economy is doing well. Things are good -- have a plan and take the long view. Michael & Tom talk about the longest view, and how to plan to distribute the estate and "having the hard discussion." Communicate more, not less. Listen in, have a laugh, and maybe a learn a little too! It's the FarrCast!
June 13, 2018
He Was Just Trying to Get Concert Tickets
Jim Iuorio joins Michael to talk markets -- he's bullish, but he's not euphoric. He tells us why he's optimistic -- and he shares what worries him as well. It's been an interesting week in DC, and Dan Mahaffee tells us what is historically unprecedented, and what is just posturing. Orthodoxy is being challenged and much of it happens beneath the headlines. Mueller and Korea are in the headlines though -- and Dan gives what to look for next. For the third segment, Michael dives in to some of the numbers with Robert Schwartzberg, one of the smartest market researchers around. Robert sees risks out there, but opportunities abound.
June 05, 2018
Things Went a Little Pear Shaped
Welcome to the FarrCast! It has been a big start to the week, and Kenny Polcari joins Michael to talk about the 400 point drop on the Dow and the strong rally in bonds. Is there anything to worry about? Or is this just more of the volatility that Kenny and Michael have been warning about since December (before the volatility began.) Spygate and the deep state and name calling over North Korea -- and then it suddenly goes quiet. Dan Mahaffee parses what is going on in DC this week. Amidst all of the noise, there is important signal that will impact the economy moving forward. Lester Munson joins Michael to help us sort out the international situation, and there is a lot to sort -- Spain and Italy both facing new election