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Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

By Jim

There is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing. Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and debt-to-gdp.

For professional investors only. No advice here. No mention of funds or products. Personal thoughts, not that of any employer.
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Uncle Jim’s World of BondsJun 08, 2020

00:00
05:27
India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance

India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance

And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.
Mar 27, 202416:12
Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?

Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?

Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.
Mar 25, 202409:10
Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan.

Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan.

And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).
Mar 22, 202412:18
Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations.

Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations.

Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.
Mar 20, 202408:19
The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵

The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵

The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’s FOMC.
Mar 18, 202411:48
Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile?

Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile?

And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!
Mar 14, 202410:08
The ‘Right Tail Risk’ Is Fading

The ‘Right Tail Risk’ Is Fading

The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.
Mar 11, 202410:59
No Rabbits Left 🐇 For The UK

No Rabbits Left 🐇 For The UK

What does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation’ get measured in the CPI?
Mar 07, 202412:26
No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data

No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data

And a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.
Feb 29, 202411:15
Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful’ Chance Of A Fed Hike

Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful’ Chance Of A Fed Hike

And the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?
Feb 26, 202408:57
Do NVIDIA’s Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise?

Do NVIDIA’s Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise?

The AI boom could raise the world’s cost of capital.
Feb 23, 202409:18
Fiscal Rules: Do Bond Investors Care?

Fiscal Rules: Do Bond Investors Care?

And some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!
Feb 21, 202418:06
‘Rishession’ For the UK 🇬🇧

‘Rishession’ For the UK 🇬🇧

And the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.
Feb 19, 202410:26
Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking

Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking

And more motorway related urban myths.
Feb 09, 202409:21
Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks?

Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks?

And US employment is still on 🔥.
Feb 04, 202407:33
Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan

Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan

What’s the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground’s Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind? Don’t say Frank Sinatra.
Jan 28, 202415:06
How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa

How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa

Also: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.
Jan 19, 202412:05
Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy?

Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy?

Growth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.
Jan 16, 202410:05
Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back!

Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back!

Lowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.
Jan 12, 202409:52
Credit Starts 2024 on the Back Foot

Credit Starts 2024 on the Back Foot

Huge supply wave in January.
Jan 08, 202412:22
Season 12 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Season 12 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Election year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.
Jan 05, 202412:38
2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special

2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special

Man I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can’t face the rest.
Dec 14, 202338:60
The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.
Dec 06, 202309:24
Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock

Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock

And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.
Dec 01, 202310:36
Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally

Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally

Also Noah Smith on productivity
Nov 29, 202311:56
The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again?

The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again?

Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.
Nov 25, 202313:36
The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks.

The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks.

US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.
Nov 19, 202311:34
US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates.

US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates.

We also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.
Nov 13, 202310:13
Kilkenomics: Oh My God - It’s Kilkenny!

Kilkenomics: Oh My God - It’s Kilkenny!

Also today - why you shouldn’t necessarily believe in really old people.
Nov 06, 202309:33
Trump Trades 2024

Trump Trades 2024

What would you do with your portfolio if you knew Trump was going to be next US President?
Nov 03, 202313:44
UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview

UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview

Banking analyst Dave Covey talks CS AT1s, BoA’s US Treasury bond holdings, CRE lending and so much more.
Oct 26, 202331:54
The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity.

The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity.

Also: ‘Kilts’ and Central Bank Stories.
Oct 22, 202311:40
UJWOB Credit Special: Part 1

UJWOB Credit Special: Part 1

A deep(ish) dive into the corporate bond market.
Oct 16, 202329:34
US Service Sector Inflation Kills The Bond Market Rally

US Service Sector Inflation Kills The Bond Market Rally

And Claudia Goldin wins the Economics Nobel Prize.
Oct 13, 202312:05
US Employment, Flight-to-Quality On Middle East Fears, Italy.

US Employment, Flight-to-Quality On Middle East Fears, Italy.

And a belated look at Arslanalp & Eichengreen’s paper on government debt levels. TL;DR - tough to get them down from here given the growth outlook.
Oct 09, 202312:26
101 Reasons For The Great Bond Sell-Off

101 Reasons For The Great Bond Sell-Off

And why Rishi Sunak faces a tricky election timing call given inflation base effects.
Oct 06, 202311:24
A Summary Of Recent Bond & Currency Moves

A Summary Of Recent Bond & Currency Moves

And Judy Stephenson’s letter to the FT about making sure you use the right inflation numbers when looking at historical building costs.
Oct 02, 202311:19
Are the Monetarists Back?

Are the Monetarists Back?

If they are, it could mean lower rates, not higher rates…
Sep 29, 202311:10
What Happened to The Pandemic Savings? Pretty Much All Gone I’m Afraid.

What Happened to The Pandemic Savings? Pretty Much All Gone I’m Afraid.

Bonds can’t catch a break though. Highest UST yields since 2007.
Sep 25, 202310:06
A Wall of Worry For Bonds

A Wall of Worry For Bonds

Also: NFTs, AI, Auto Workers’ Strike.
Sep 22, 202312:34
Table Mountain: Fed Holds But Will ‘Proceed Carefully’. UK Inflation Lets BoE Off The Hook.

Table Mountain: Fed Holds But Will ‘Proceed Carefully’. UK Inflation Lets BoE Off The Hook.

A Dynamically Priced Episode of IJWOB. Send me a fiver.
Sep 20, 202310:06
Peak Central Bank Rates = Peak Bond Yields?

Peak Central Bank Rates = Peak Bond Yields?

Lots of central bank activity this week, albeit with a lurking threat from higher oil and rents.
Sep 18, 202310:02
Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Is Season 11 ‘The One Where The Fed Stops Hiking’? Find out soon.
Sep 11, 202313:53
UJWOB Summer Special 2023 ☀️

UJWOB Summer Special 2023 ☀️

All your summer bond market fun in one place.
Aug 25, 202327:42
The End of Season 10 of UJWOB

The End of Season 10 of UJWOB

Three central banks, three policy actions. Oooh, and SUPERCONDUCTOR HOPE!
Jul 28, 202314:08
Geek Week For Central Bank Watchers

Geek Week For Central Bank Watchers

Fed, ECB and BOJ. Central bankers are spoiling us.
Jul 24, 202309:59
Finally the Bank of England Catches a Break. Better UK Inflation Numbers.

Finally the Bank of England Catches a Break. Better UK Inflation Numbers.

And Chinese property bonds fall.
Jul 19, 202307:48
The Turning Point in the Battle Against Inflation? June’s CPI Cheers Bonds.

The Turning Point in the Battle Against Inflation? June’s CPI Cheers Bonds.

But bad news from the Chinese economy as GDP disappoints.
Jul 17, 202310:06
Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report: Not As Bad As 2007?

Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report: Not As Bad As 2007?

The UK banking system is in a solid place. But look out for risks in pension funds, insurers and hedge funds around US Treasury bond exposures.
Jul 12, 202312:15
New Weakness In Bond Markets. Monetary Policy Doesn’t Seem To Be Working.

New Weakness In Bond Markets. Monetary Policy Doesn’t Seem To Be Working.

Rocketing ADP employment data sends markets lower.
Jul 07, 202310:59