The Julia La Roche Show

Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal of the Fitz-Gerald Group, shares his macro view of the world and the five big picture lenses through which he sees the world.

He believes that investing in optimism and knowing where the world is going is better than trying to be right at specific moments in time. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that have great demand for their products and services and can change consumer behavior. Keith also discusses the role of the Fed and the importance of investing in optimism rather than trying to second-guess the unpredictable actions of the Fed.

Link: https://www.keithfitz-gerald.com/

00:00 Introduction and welcome Keith to the show

0:53 Simple is better

1:50 The five Ds

2:50 Does the Fed matter? 

5:30 The AI Opportunity and Changing the World

8:22 Keith Fitz-Gerald’s S&P 4750 target in 2023 

10:50 Buying right now — chaos creates opportunity 

13:00 History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes 

14:00 Geopolitics and markets 

15:55 When in doubt, zoom out 

17:13 Portfolio construction 

19:03 Took out S&P 500 price target, 5500-5600 may be next stop

20:20 The Fed needs to stay on sidelines 

22:40 Are markets healthy? 

26:00 Outlook for the U.S. 

26:50 Gold 

29:20 Parting thoughts

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 161 to discuss the global liquidity cycle and its impact on the economy. 

He explains that liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and that the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. Howell argues that the focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced, and that the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. He also highlights the importance of liquidity in the refinancing of debt and warns of the risks of a liquidity shortage. Howell suggests that investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.

Links: 

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

Takeaways

• Liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher.
• The focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced; the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors.
• A shortage of liquidity can lead to banking and refinancing crises.
• Investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.

Timestamps: 

00:00 Introduction 

1:38 Macro view + liquidity cycle 

3:07 Interest rates 

6:10 What really matters is the integrity of the US Treasury market 

07:47 Hedging Against Monetary Inflation

9:16 Gold

11:56 US public debt 

15:15 Monetizing the debt 

18:06 Gold is the pole star in the financial system

20:40 US dollar

26:29 Inverted yield curve

31:37 Conclusion and parting thoughts

Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, discusses the macro view of the world and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. 

He criticizes the Fed for its incompetence and reckless policies that have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital. 

Fleckenstein also highlights the power of the passive bid in distorting the market and the importance of understanding its effects. He believes that the stock market has become a lagging indicator and that the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation. 

Elsewhere, Fleckenstein discusses the bond market, gold, and silver.  He also expresses concerns about the US national debt and the lack of fiscal responsibility.

Links: 

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap

Website:https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

Takeaways

• The Federal Reserve's incompetence and reckless policies have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital.
• The passive bid, driven by defined contribution plans and 401k plans, has distorted the market and changed what works and what doesn't.
• The stock market has become a lagging indicator, and the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation.
• The US national debt is a significant concern, and there is a lack of fiscal responsibility.
• Gold and silver are seen as insurance policies against inflation and financial disruptions.

Chapters

0:00 Introduction and welcome Bill Fleckenstein

0:55 Macro view and what the Fed does really matters

4:30 The distorting effects of the passive bid

6:30 The stock market is a lagging indicator 

10:45 Equity markets in a bubble or not? 

13:30 End game — long end of the bond market rates rise

18:26 Inflation and the inflation psychology  

23:53 The Fed’s inflation fight, Fed cutting rates would be an obvious mistake

26:30 The economy and millennials 

29:49 Gold price, gold market has figured out Fed is trapped 

34:44 Silver

37:04 Outlook on the U.S. and conclusion

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 159 to discuss the macro view of the economy, focusing on fiscal dominance. 

Alden highlights the wide performance gaps between sectors, which are influenced by fiscal and monetary policies. She discusses the implications of fiscal dominance and the challenges it poses for the Fed's tools to control inflation. 

Alden also shares her insights on asset markets, including the rise of gold, Bitcoin, and undervalued energy stocks.

Links: 

https://www.lynalden.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact

00:00 Introduction and overview

01:16 Fiscal dominance and its impact sectors

04:37 Fiscal dominance, explained 

09:37 Higher highs, higher lows of inflations in 2020s

12:20 Ironically stimulative 

16:18 Assessment of the economy, is it healthy? 

18:53 Asset markets, rise in gold is indicative of fiscal problems 

22:00 undervalued energy stocks and their catalysts

25:33 Insights on Bitcoin, its performance, why it could hit six-figures in next two years

30:17 Conclusion and parting thoughts

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, discusses the state of the US economy and the consumer. 

Last year, she did not expect a recession because of the strong consumer. Today, she describes the economy as “bifurcated” because higher-earning households are driving consumer spending. 

Whitney also explores the housing market and predicts a supply glut that will lead to a decline in home prices, making it more affordable for younger generations. She delves into the demographic changes and challenges posed by an aging population, particularly in terms of long-term care and housing. 

Whitney also addresses the fiscal position of states and the nation, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget and the potential risks of relying on foreign buyers for debt.

Links: 

https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction 

01:05 Macro view, bifurcated consumer

04:19 Sentiment 

05:58 Housing market and homeownership

09:21 Timeline for home prices

10:38 Demographic changes and solutions

12:31 Demographic trends and aging Americans

20:31 National debt and foreign buyers

22:46 Possibility of a balanced budget

23:44 Fear and impact of research calls

32:11 Meredith Whitney Advisory Group

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 154.

Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics.

Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.

In our wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Laffer shares his insights on the current state of the U.S. and global economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and his outlook for the future.

Links:

https://www.amazon.com/Taxes-Have-Consequences-Income-History/dp/1637585640

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and Overview

01:08 The Five Pillars of Prosperity

11:13 Factors Leading to the Current Situation

26:08 Addressing Incentives in Politics

30:41 The Flawed Logic of Stimulus Spending

35:17 The Fallacy of Redistribution

37:38 The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

38:04 The Lack of Economic Understanding Among Professional Economists

39:02 The Laffer Curve and Tax Rates

40:19 The Role of Private Money in the Economy

44:34 The Possibility of a Low, Broad-Based Flat Tax Rate

50:25 The Failure of Government-Controlled Money

54:30 Assessment of the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

57:23 The Importance of Economic Principles over Political Labels

01:01:50 Future Topics: Medical Transparency, Debt, Enterprise Zones, and Climate Change

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, makes his debut on episode 152 of The Julia La Roche Show.

In this episode, Hirschmann argues that we're currently in the most dangerous time in financial history and that three bubbles—stocks, real estate, and global bonds—could all burst.

Hirschmann also makes the case that we'll likely see more persistent inflation in the future, given the massive deficits and debt burden. He argues that the price of gold could soar to $7,000.

For investments, he favors gold miners and exposure to international equities.

Links: https://www.hcapital.llc/

00:00 Introduction and Macro View of the Economy

00:43 Dangerous Time in US Financial History

03:08 Consequences of Crisis Suppression Policy

04:35 US Equity and Real Estate Bubbles

06:27 Government Debt Problem

08:20 Global Government Debt Crisis

09:47 Government Debt Crisis and Private Sector Recession

11:03 Gold's Performance and Market Environment

13:13 Factors Affecting Gold's Valuation

19:36 Fed Policy and Fiscal Dominance

23:39 Impact of Fiscal Dominance on Gold

27:26 Investing in Gold Mining Companies

31:53 Impact of Bubbles Bursting

35:36 Potential Impacts of Recession

40:10 Likelihood of Recession

44:21 Closing Remarks

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, now Editor at Stansberry Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, markets, and common mistakes investors make. 

Whitney discusses the strength of the macro picture and the importance of not betting against America. 

In this conversation, Whitney shares stock picks, reflects on missed opportunities, and discusses the importance of letting winners run. He also talks about closing his hedge fund, lessons learned, and the wisdom he gained from the late Charlie Munger. 

Tilson emphasizes the need for patience and discipline in investing and highlights the five calamities that can derail a successful life.

Links: 

Stansberry Research: https://stansberryresearch.com/our-team/whitney-tilson

The Art of Playing Defense: https://www.amazon.com/Art-Playing-Defense-Falling-Behind-ebook/dp/B091QFHJ6B

Timestamps 

00:00 Introduction

00:55 Big picture view of the economy and markets 

02:43 Caution against letting politics influence investment decisions

03:38 The mistake of predicting gloom and doom

05:24 Betting against America doesn’t make sense 

06:59 There are warning flags, but stocks aren’t in bubble territory 

8:10 Bitcoin smells frothy, but ‘I would never short it’ 

09:22 Stock Picks: Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, and other opportunities

10:02 Bitcoin is an instrument of pure speculation 

15:56 Stock pick ideas - Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, etc.

21:26 Introduction to Warren Buffett and value investing

26:48 Stock exchanges as interesting investment opportunities

29:08 Lessons from missed opportunities

36:07 The importance of letting winners run

38:50 Reflecting on closing the hedge fund, mental mistakes investors make

43:48 Running a Hedge Fund with Patience and Discipline

46:13 Charlie Munger's legacy

50:06 The Art of Playing Defense

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations. 

He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies. 

Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund.

Takeaways

• Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated.
• The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process.
• The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient.
• Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy.

Links: 

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf

The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction

00:22 The macro view

03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it’s 1995’

05:30 Alf’s contrarian narrative

08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns

11:42 Spillover effects from China

15:41 Possible recession and risks

27:14 Conclusion

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, discusses his macro view of the economy and markets.

He believes that the market is ahead of the Fed and that inflation will not come down as quickly as people think due to demographic factors. Bassman also discusses the yield curve and its implications for a recession.

He recommends investing in mortgage-backed securities due to their attractive risk-return profile.

Finally, Bassman, the "Convexity Maven," explains convexity and its importance in bond investing.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/convexitymaven

Convexity Maven: https://www.convexitymaven.com/

Simplify Asset Management: https://www.simplify.us/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and macro view

03:03 Inflation and Fed Policy

05:01 Inflation expectations

07:26 Yield Curve and recession

10:06 Trade Opportunities in bonds

14:47 Mortgage-Backed Securities and convexity

19:55 Rate expectations and mortgage bond trade

20:15 Understanding convexity

25:55 Wrap up

Dr. Burton Malkiel, author of the influential book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," which revolutionized how people approach investing, joined Julia La Roche on episode 142.

Link: https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/1324051132

0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Burton Malkiel 

1:30 Writing ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ 

4:30 Reaction to ‘A Random Walk’ 

5:30 90% of active managers do worse than the index 

8:14 Investing in the first index fund, and its returns 

12:48 This is the way to invest

19:30 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

22:29 Bitcoin spot ETF, bubbles 

27:18 Debunking that ETFs distort financial markets, fuel a passive investing bubble 

33:40 Efficient Market Hypothesis and what the media gets wrong

38:20 View of the markets, macroeconomics  

43:50 Retirement crisis ahead?

48:48 Background

50:38 Parting thoughts

Dr. Marc Faber, editor of “The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report," provides a macro view of the global economy and financial markets. He discusses the diverging trends in different countries and the impact on standards of living. 

Dr. Faber expresses concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the high levels of debt in the US. He recommends investing in gold as a safe asset and highlights the undervalued opportunities in Latin America. 

Dr. Faber emphasizes the importance of being a contrarian investor and encourages individuals to focus on personal freedom and not rely on government interventions. In uncertain times, Faber advises diversification as a strategy, allocating assets to stocks, precious metals, real estate, and cash and bonds. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a consistent asset allocation regardless of market conditions.

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction and welcome Dr. Marc Faber

01:13 Macro view 

04:00 Cost of living in advanced economies is higher 

06:00 EM valuations attractive, US expensive 

08:46 Long-term cycles of inflation and interest rates

10:00 Inflation is not under control

11:28 The rich have never had it this good in their lives

12:27 A silent depression for ordinary people 

14:45 Long-term cycles of inflation, interest rates in context of growing debt

20:00 Printing money

23:20 Re-acceleration of inflation 

26:00 The Economics of Inflation 

28:01 ‘If you trust the central banks, you’re stupid’

35:08 Gold and precious metals 

48:17 Recession outlook

50:39 Investment opportunities, asset allocation 

54:50 Parting thoughts 

Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, who is the founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, joined The Julia La Roche Show to share his insights on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and the market. Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices.

In this episode, Zulauf predicted that the market will continue to rise in early 2024 due to the economy appearing stronger than expected. However, he anticipates a drop in equities due to a recession. He described the current market as a "rollercoaster," with ups and downs that could be particularly frustrating for passive investors. He suggested that these investors might see low or even negative total returns in the next decade. According to Zulauf, those who can play mini cycles could find the environment beneficial.

Zulauf also commented on the concentration of fund managers in the Magnificent 7, a level of concentration he has never seen in his 40-year career.

Turning to inflation, Zulauf argued that what we're currently seeing is only a "temporary victory" and that we have "not killed the inflation beast." He shared his thesis for the latter part of the 2020s, predicting a possible 10% inflation rate. He noted that while occasional crises have been managed and kept under control, he worries that the next big crisis in the late 2020s "will be a shocker." As he put it, "all hell will break loose," and the latter half of the decade will be characterized by social, economic, financial, and currency crises.

0:00 Intro and Welcome Felix Zulauf 

1:12 Macro view, geopolitical impact, changing world order

2:40 Equity markets likely to go up first, then drop

3:50 Inflation could rise above 10% 

5:20 Nimble and flexible 

7:29 Playing the markets in the environment 

9:40 Fund managers piling into Magnificent 7 stocks, never seen this kind of concentration 

14:24 FOMC reaction, Fed outlook, rate cut likely 

17:40 Late 2020s, higher inflation, debt trillion

19:38 Inflation cycle similar to late 60s/70s

21:15 Next inflation cycle will create a problem for the bond market

22:15 Yield curve control 

23:30 Hell will break loose, next big crisis will be a shocker 

24:30 Addressing the fiscal problems 

25:37 Gold not just a monetary asset, but a geopolitical asset

30:40 Parting thoughts, Japanese Yen 

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab, discusses the macro picture, behavior of asset classes, active management, Federal Reserve outlook, interpreting economic data, the yield curve and recession, the bond market vs. equity market, and lessons from the legendary late Marty Zweig.

Takeaways

* The current economic cycle is characterized by rolling recessions, with different sectors experiencing periods of growth and contraction.

* The relationship between bond yields and stock prices has historically been negative during inflationary periods and positive during periods of economic growth.

* Active management may become more important in the new era, as market conditions change and there is greater dispersion in how securities behave.

* The Federal Reserve is likely to be in pause mode with regards to rate hikes, but a significant loosening of monetary policy is not expected.

*Interpreting economic data can be challenging due to the presence of crosscurrents and conflicting indicators.

* The yield curve has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions, but the timing and duration of recessions can vary.* The bond market and equity market may have different perspectives on the current economic environment, with the bond market being more cautious.

* Lessons from Marty Zweig include the importance of understanding how monetary policy influences asset prices and the value of sentiment analysis.

Links:

2024 Outlook: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-outlook-one-thing-leads-to-another

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders

On Investing Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-investing/id1711806955?ls=1&mt=2

Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Macro Picture

03:55 A Different Environment

05:29 Behavior of Asset Classes, Opportunities

08:52 Active Management in the New Era

10:25 Federal Reserve Outlook

14:07 Interpreting Economic Data

19:03 Yield Curve and Recession

22:27 Bond Market vs. Equity Market

25:21 Lessons from Marty Zweig

Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 123. 

Going into 2023, Cullen’s big call was disinflation, which was a largely correct call. In this episode, Cullen shares his views that it might take a full year for the Federal Reserve to hit the 2% target. Because of that, the Fed can’t start signaling rate cuts without risking a resurgence in inflation. Therefore, Cullen believes the Fed will remain tighter well into 2024, increasing the risk of a hard landing or credit event as we get deeper into 2024.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cullenroche

Discipline Funds: https://disciplinefunds.com/

Is The S&P 500 Broken? https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/21/is-the-sp-500-broken/

Pragmatic Capitalism: https://www.amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance-ebook/dp/B0B4V1KHVD

0:00 Welcome Cullen Roche to the show 

1:03 Macro view 

5:44 Real estate 

10:13 How resilient is the economy really? 

13:33 Disinflation call, 2024 outlook, road to 2% more difficult 

17:29 Expect Fed to hold rates tight

18:23 Opportunities in bonds

20:28 Stock market is a 17-year instrument, duration of other asset classes 

26:50 Allocating in this environment 

30:00 Is the S&P 500 broken, are there hidden risks? 

Marlinski Media produces the Julia La Roche Show: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

Charles Payne, host of FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Making Money with Charles Payne (weekdays 2-3PM/ET), joined Julia La Roche on episode 122 to discuss his newest book, "Unbreakable Investor." Charles began his career on Wall Street as an analyst at E.F. Hutton in 1985. In 1991, he founded Wall Street Strategies, an independent stock market research firm where he serves as chief executive officer and principal analyst. He published his first book, "Be Smart, Act Fast, Get Rich" in May 2007, and "Unstoppable Prosperity: Learn the Strategy I’ve Used for Years to Beat the Market" in 2019. He joined FOX News Media as a contributor in 2007 and provides financial analysis across FBN and FOX News Channel.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cvpayne

Wall Street Strategies: https://www.wstreet.com/

Unbreakable Investor: https://www.unbreakableinvestor.com/

0:00 Intro and welcome Charles Payne

1:24 Big picture view, bifurcated economy and markets 

2:51 Recession 

4:15 Unbreakable Investor 

6:34 Stock market 

10:13 Roaring 2020s 

12:28 Leadership 

15:30 Outlook on the U.S. 

19:30 Charles’ journey to Wall Street 

25:50 Closing thoughts 

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 118 to discuss the economy, markets, and where he’s finding opportunity in a world with higher inflation.

0:00 Welcome Jim Rogers back 

1:18 Macro view ahead of an election 

3:00 Recession outlook 

4:48 Inflation 

7:03 Bond market 

10:15 Inflation globally 

11:00 Allocating in a higher inflation environment 

12:20 Silver, gold 

14:13 Stocks 

15:08 Short-selling 

17:40 U.S. Dollar 

21:34 Moving to Singapore 

25:30 Guinness World Records 

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins in-person in Austin, Texas, for episode 117 to discuss the economy, markets, life, and his new book, “Stay Rich With A Balanced Portfolio.” 

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more.

Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran.

Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality.

Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

0:00 Welcome Ted Oakley to the show

1:08 Macro outlook 

3:10 Economic picture 

5:06 Wealthy don’t mind being safe right now

8:00 Short-term treasuries 

9:16 10-year Treasury 

14:13 Inflation 

17:15 Investor bias 

20:20 Ted Oakley’s upbringing 

27:04 Writing Staying Right With A Balanced Portfolio 

30:30 Folks can afford to wait now 

31:50 Psychology of investing 

39:00 Gold 

40:27 What is a balanced portfolio these days? 

41:51 Every landing is hard 

44:16 The small investor 

46:20 The curse of second-generation wealth 

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 116 to discuss her new book, “"Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better.” 

Links: 

https://www.lynalden.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

0:00 Welcome Lyn Alden to the show 

1:11 Macro picture 

4:18 1940s comparison 

9:04 Fiscal spiral 

12:49 Inflation in Egypt 

20:00 Expectations of a recession, higher inflation 

23:20 Stagflationary outlook 

25:30 Why is money broken? 

28:44 160 currency bubbles 

30:33 Why is the system so antiquated? 

34:45 Self publishing 

36:40 Role of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency 

45:00 Gold 

47:41 Bitcoin 

51:30 Could Bitcoin ever be a bubble? 

55:18 Role of central banks with the rise of Bitcoin 

57:43 Parting thoughts 

Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we're facing an impending recession.

Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist.He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics."

Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others.

This is the 54th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases.

Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well.

0:00 Welcome Dr. Hunt

1:55 Macro picture 

3:00 Corollary between severity of inflation and recession

4:50 An untenable situation for moderate/modest households 

6:29 Looking under the hood of the economy 

9:50 Michigan consumer sentiment index 

11:55 Coordinated fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic 

14:20 Law of diminishing returns 

17:03 What does a hard landing look like 

20:30 Another contra cyclical development in the financial cycle 

23:00 A deep/short recession or long/narrow recession

26:00 Debt, demographics 

29:40 US dollar 

30:40 Private spending has a positive multiplier, government spending has a negative multiplier 

36:06 Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL) 

41:55 Contra normal developments

43:15 Discretionary monetary, fiscal policy have failed

48:30 Fed needs to move away from full discretion

50:20 Groupthink at the Fed, no diversity of opinion

54:00 Classical economist 

57:00 5 phases of the business cycle