In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Vimal Gor, head of Fixed Income and Defensive Strategies at Pendal Group, an independent Australian asset manager with about US$100 billion in AUM, half of which is managed in Australia and the other half in England through the subsidiary JO Hambro Capital Management. Pendal is a listed company under the ticker PDL, in Australia. Vimal and his team are responsible for managing US$20 billion, allocated across different asset classes.

Vimal Gor talks about a very important and unique subject, which he named “illusion of liquidity”. He started by explaining what he means by this and then describes the pockets of illiquidity in different markets. Vimal used a recent example to illustrate his point. He then explains this illiquidity issue considering the environment of strong monetary stimuli initiated during the 2007-2008 economic crisis.

Gor gives his insights into the flattening of the US yield curve, with an explanation of the dynamics that are responsible for its movements. He also gives his opinion about the possibility of a US recession and its consequences for the world.

Vimal also discusses the possibility that the US and Europe are following Japan's path (“Japanification of the world”), justifying his position based on demographic factors.

In addition, he brings his conclusions from the meeting he had with Bill Mitchell, proponent economist of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and discusses the implications of the adoption of such theory.

Vimal Gor also talks about the risks of a deceleration in global growth and ponders the importance of having gold and cryptocurrencies in the portfolio.

In regards to Australia, Vimal comments on decades of uninterrupted growth, the appreciation in real estate, the level of debt and the outlook for the country in the face of the global situation.

As for the US-China trade war, Gor sets out his view on the changes that may come from the dispute and the other geopolitical issues at stake.

Vimal discusses the problems Europe is going through, as well as the many risks present today, especially the solvency of the continent's banking institutions.

How to position yourself in the midst of so many risks and adversities? Vimal Gor points out what precautions to take, which assets he prefers, and which assets he is more cautious about.

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Podcast #21: Tavi Costa - Macro Research

L2 CapitalBy L2capitalOct 23, 2019