L2 Capital

In this episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke to cannabis investor Aaron Edelheit. Aaron has been doing extensive research in the cannabis sector and has a knack for opportunities, like the purchase of properties after the GFC.

Aaron mentioned the similarities between the cannabis investment now and the property market in 2009. He also talked a lot about interstate commerce, which he views as a hindrance for the sector, and probably the most important thing at the moment.

Besides, Aaron gave his opinion on legislation, schedule review, illegal production and much more. 

In this episode, Marcelo Lopez had a very interesting conversation with Jesse Redmond, Head of Cannabis Research at Water Tower Research. Jesse discussed the current situation of the cannabis market in the USA and the investment perspectives. Redmond also explained the role states play in this universe, the existing political catalysts, including SAFE Banking Act, schedule review, tax-related issues, and what to expect from the Garland memo.

In this episode, Marcelo Lopez had a very interesting conversation with Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Jim talked about the many risks that are present in the markets today, from private equity to high yield bonds. Besides, Jim gave his views on interest rates and inflation, and its potential impacts in the economy. He also lecture us about his preferred commodity, gold, and talked about nuclear energy and uranium. Last but not least, he left us with 3 excellent book recommendations. 

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Mark Nelson, executive director of the Radiant Energy Fund, a non-profit organization focused on the energy market.

Mark is a nuclear engineer who started his career working with the famous Michael Shellenberger, author of the book “Apocalypse Never” and a great defender of nuclear energy as a source of clean and sustainable energy.

Nelson spoke about ESG investments – these are investments in line with best practices regarding environmental, social and corporate governance aspects. Mark questioned the ESG title that giants in a few sectors, especially technology, claim they hold . Mark explained in detail how energy is a topic of great relevance, but it is not given the proper credit.

Mark also explained the cultural war being waged against nuclear energy and its impacts on the world and told us how to deal with differences of opinion in communication.

When asked how wind and solar power would have supposedly gotten cheaper in recent years, while people who live in regions where there is a lot of availability of these types of energy sources end up paying more for electricity, Mark gave a surprising explanation. He demonstrated that the metric used by the sector is wrong and misleading (LCOE -levelized cost of energy) and gave a fantastic example to substantiate his point.

Mark also spoke about the situation in France, the anti-nuclear youth movement today, its origins and how to deal with the issue. In addition, it addressed an interesting item, the reverse carbon tax.

Nelson also spoke about the German situation and the major problem that nuclear energy will have to face in that country.

Finally, Mark explained, from his point of view, why it is easier to develop nuclear projects and build atomic reactors in Asian countries than in Western countries.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a company listed on the Australian stock exchange, ASX, focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines in Namibia.

Brandon, a frequent participant in the L2 Capital podcasts, returned to discuss important topics such as the restart of the Cigar Lake mine, the 20% cut in Kazatomprom's estimated production for 2022, the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium, the latest developments in the spot market, the situation in Iran at the moment and the latest news from Bannerman Resources.

Marcelo had already mentioned in the last podcast recorded with Munro, in early June, that he expected the production of Cigar Lake to return this year and Brandon starts talking about the stock market's response to Cameco's announcement. The reopening procedures of the mine that had been closed due to the pandemic are due to start in September.

Brandon also discusses the decision of Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium miner, to reduce the estimated production of the metal by 20% in 2022 and the importance of this attitude for the market. Munro talks about the consequences of this and the possible repercussions for the coming years.

He comments on the uranium spot market, the main factors that are affecting the price at the moment and how real investors are reacting.

Brandon explains that the WNA (World Nuclear Association) Symposium will be virtual this year and discusses what the implications will be for nuclear fuel buyers and sellers.

Munro also talks about the Iran sanctions waivers, which end on August 27, and what the United States are doing about it.

Finally, Brandon talks about the changes at Bannerman Resources and how it can affect the company and investors' view of it.

No episódio de hoje, segunda parte de uma conversa que foi dividida em duas, Marcelo López conversou com Fernando Ulrich, sócio da Liberta Investimentos, e com Otávio Costa, mais conhecido como Tavi, portfolio manager da Crescat Capital.

Marcelo começa falando do atual estado dos mercados e de uma possível bolha que está se formando nas bolsas pelo mundo afora, especialmente após a entrada mais expressiva do varejo. López cita o exemplo da Tesla e compara o patrimônio de Warren Buffett com o de Elon Musk, sugerindo que isso pode ser um indicador.

Fernando menciona alguns exemplos de empresas que estão quebradas e viram suas ações disparar nos últimos meses, como resultado de aplicativos como Robin Hood.

Tavi comenta sobre frases como “fundamentos não importam” e as críticas ao Warren Buffett. Nesse contexto, ele discute sobre a solidez dos fundamentos da economia e, mais especificamente, sobre o mercado de mineração, os setores bancários, imobiliário e de tecnologia.

Fernando faz uma provocação dizendo que o mercado só está subindo por causa do Fed e dos estímulos dos bancos centrais.

Marcelo fala sobre a tese de investimento em urânio e da assimetria favorável ao investidor paciente e compara com a relação risco x retorno no caso dos investimentos em tecnologia.

Tavi complementa os argumentos e conclusões com alguns exemplos e mostra que a dívida das empresas está alta e continua subindo e faz um questionamento com relação ao mercado de urânio e de commodities em geral.

Marcelo explica em mais detalhes o mercado de urânio, salienta aspectos ligados ao crescimento do mercado consumidor (reatores nucleares) e aos cortes de produção das mineradoras. Ele ainda destaca haver um déficit crescente entre oferta e demanda e acredita que o ajuste será feito por meio do preço do metal.

Marcelo também conta sobre a Coca-Cola e o que realmente está mudando nas empresas, e contrasta o aumento do endividamento e das recompras de ações com as receitas e margens dos negócios.

López pergunta sobre a visão dos convidados sobre bolsa, dólar e taxa juros. Tavi chama a atenção para o estresse no câmbio dos mercados emergentes e destaca problemas na economia chinesa que podem repercutir pelo mundo afora.

Fernando discute os impactos da atual taxa de juros no Brasil e da situação fiscal no câmbio, além das consequências da volatilidade na moeda, e defende uma mudança na meta de inflação.

Marcelo traz à discussão o tema bitcoin e Fernando explica o racional por trás da sua tese de investimento, que foca primeiro em reserva de valor e depois em meio de troca. Tavi também dá sua opinião sobre a moeda digital e sobre uma possível forma de diversificação.

No episódio de hoje, primeira parte de uma conversa que foi dividida em duas, Marcelo López conversou com Fernando Ulrich, sócio da Liberta Investimentos, e com Otávio Costa, mais conhecido como Tavi, portfolio manager da Crescat Capital.

Tavi começa discutindo sobre os 3 itens que ele e a Crescat estavam acompanhando desde o ano passado: a situação na China, os metais preciosos e a bolha nos mercados internacionais. Ele fala sobre sua expectativa em torno dos estímulos monetários e discorre sobre o impacto disso nos metais preciosos.

Fernando completa o raciocínio com sua visão mais macro e questiona sobre a conversibilidade do dólar de Hong Kong e os impactos na economia local. Tavi fala sobre os hedges que a Crescat Capital está usando no momento e suas expectativas sobre o futuro da economia chinesa.

Ulrich então traz suas expectativas com relação a tão sonhada recuperação em “V” das economias mundiais e compara com o pensamento corrente. Ele fala sobre o business cycle, indicadores antecedentes e sobre a rápida queda e retorno dos mercados internacionais.

Marcelo expõe sua visão de que essa é uma crise de solvência, não de liquidez, e que a impressão de dinheiro desenfreada não vai resolver o problema. Tavi completa com sua opinião sobre a atual crise e destaca alguns setores estão sendo prejudicados mais do que outros, além de comparar o setor de tecnologia com o setor de bancos.

Fernando diz que ainda tem muita coisa para acontecer em termos de “saneamento financeiro” e elabora sobre o tema, citando exemplos como o da Boeing. Além disso, ele levanta o questionamento sobre inflação e deflação.

Marcelo conta sobre o respeito que tem pelo mercado de bonds e diz que ainda não está claro o caminho que o mundo vai seguir, ou seja, se haverá inflação ou deflação. Nesse confronto, ele traz bons argumentos para ambos. Do lado da inflação, há a impressão de dinheiro absurda, do lado da deflação, existe o icônico caso Japão, que vem imprimindo dinheiro há décadas, sem que a inflação incomodasse.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a company listed on the Australian stock exchange, ASX, focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines in Namibia. Brandon, who has participated in L2 Capital's Podcasts # 05, # 14 and # 18, returned to discuss the Russian Suspension Agreement (RSA), the Iran waivers and the outcome of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG).

Munro starts by explaining what the Russian Suspension Agreement (RSA) is in a very clear and objective way. Then, when asked about a potential disruption in the supply of nuclear fuel to the US due to this suspension as early as 2021, Brandon explains what can be done to mitigate this situation.

He also discusses the Corfu Declaration, an agreement similar to the RSA, but in Europe, and its practical effects. Through this Declaration, Russia would be unable to supply more than 20% of Europe’s enriched uranium demand.

Brandon explains how global regulation and control of uranium is carried out in the context of the global nuclear fuel supply chain, as uranium can be mined in Australia, converted and enriched in Russia, produced as a fuel in Sweden and be used in an American reactor.

Brandon comments on the situation in Iran, the agreement signed by President Obama, the US discontentment and subsequent withdrawal from that agreement, on the waivers granted to some companies, the recent withdrawal of three of these waivers and the consequences this could have.

Munro also talks about the release of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG) report at the end of April, its main points, the consequences for the global nuclear industry and, specifically, for the USA.

Finally, Brandon and Marcelo discuss Cigar Lake, the Cameco mine whose production was suspended this year, the movement in Port Hope and the difficulties that traders are facing to find uranium in the midst of this bull market.

No episódio de hoje, Marcelo López conversou com Rodrigo Constantino, chairman do Instituto Liberal, autor de vários livros famosos e comentarista no programa 3 em 1 na Jovem Pan.

Rodrigo começa falando sobre os efeitos econômicos do isolamento e distanciamento social causados pela pandemia do coronavírus no mundo.

Em seguida, ele que já trabalhou com o atual ministro da economia Paulo Guedes, nos conta sobre o backgroundintelectual do ministro e comenta sobre os efeitos da pandemia no Brasil e da enorme oportunidade que o país tem no momento de fazer o dever de casa e se sair bem.

Constantino expõe sua visão sobre a situação econômica do país e sobre a relação entre Paulo Guedes e Bolsonaro. Nesse contexto, ele avalia as possibilidades de haver um desmantelamento de parte da equipe econômica do governo, tendo em vista fatores como a situação histórica do Brasil, a política do Centrão e o corporativismo brasileiro.

Em referência a um episódio recente, Rodrigo explica a situação da saída do ex-ministro Moro do governo, suas razões (ou falta delas) e implicações políticas para ele e o presidente.

Constantino traz sua opinião sobre a atual situação chinesa com relação a Hong Kong e Taiwan, e como o mundo está lidando com isso. O sistema vigorante até pouco tempo era o de 1 país, 2 sistemas, e a democracia sempre foi um ponto importante em Hong Kong.

Como economista, Rodrigo discute sobre a recente desvalorização da moeda brasileira, o real, e suas consequências disso para o país.

Rodrigo, como libertário que é, dá sua opinião sobre o bitcoin, a principal criptomoeda do mundo. Aliás, esse foi um ponto interessante e controverso da discussão.

Por fim, Constantino comenta sobre um de seus livros, intitulado “Brasileiro é otário?”, explicando por que o tão famoso jeitinho brasileiro é, na verdade, uma draga para o desenvolvimento do país.

In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, a company specialized in natural resource investments, such as mining, energy and agriculture.

Adam explains the model developed by G&R to understand the dynamic of the shale oil production in the United States and the conclusions drawn regarding the level of productivity and quality of each oil well.

Rozencwajg talks about the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and the impact that the clash has had on the oil market. He mentions the strengths and weaknesses that each side has in this dispute, such as, for example, the ability to deal with low prices, oil price needed to balance the budget and the influence of the currency on the costs and profitability of oil companies.

Adam comments on the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on world oil demand and stocks so far and his expectations going forward.

In the face of low oil prices, Rozencwajg discusses the ability of U.S. shale producers to continue to pump oil after price normalization and highlights the role and importance that shale has in meeting global energy demands.

Adam explains the behaviour of prices in the oil futures market, which is currently in contango, and the possibility of returning to backwardation.

Rozencwajg comments on the discrepancies he has found and as well as the upcoming potential opportunities in the oil and gas companies, then finally, on what is important to take into account when analyzing the sector now.

As for the gold-oil ratio, which represents the ratio between the price of gold and the price of a barrel of oil, Adam acknowledges that it is at a very high level and gives his interpretation to the number and how it can be an indicator for positioning in shares of the energy sector in relation to the shares of producers of the precious metal.

Another index, the gold-silver ratio, (which is the ratio between the price of gold and that of silver), also at multi-year high levels, is discussed with Adam, who believes one has to have exposure to precious metals and the shares of companies that produce them.

Finally, Rozencwajg talks about uranium, the fundamentals of the sector and his expectations for the price of the commodity.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, a company that specializes in providing advice for farmers and hedgers about soft commodities, based on analysis and forecasts of climate cycles. Hackett Financial Advisors helps traders and producers make decisions in agricultural commodities in order to better conduct their business.

Shawn initially discusses global warming and climate change, issues that have been around for some years. He argues for the non-anthropogenic factors that historically influence the planet's climate, in contrast to the view that the human factor is paramount. Hackett explains how solar cycles work, how long each cycle is, the impact that changes in the sun bring to Earth, what sunspots are, what they represent in terms of physical phenomena and how solar winds affect our planet.

Shawn comments on the importance of understanding and monitoring solar cycles for agricultural commodities and how reliable these cycles are. From an historical perspective, he links these cycles to geopolitical and economic events and also to food production abundance and scarcity.

Hackett explains that the sun rotates around the centre of mass of the solar system and not around itself, as one might think. He then correlates this characteristic with the influence that solar activity has on the planet Earth under given circumstances.

According to him, other variables are also important to understand the climate and the changes to which it is subject. He talks about the temperature of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and their own cycles and how these cycles, associated with solar cycles, impact the climate in the world. Shawn also talks about the El Niño and La Niña phenomena and their relevance to the climate.

Shawn talks about the moment we are in in relation to solar cycles and ocean temperatures, and the effects that they will have on planet Earth. Hackett also talks about the existing technologies to deal with adversities in agricultural production and comments on which commodities producers and traders should seek exposure to at this time.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Paul Ma, director of CGN Mining, a company that is part of the China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN), the world's third largest nuclear power corporation, and a member of the board of directors of Fission Uranium.

Paul has more than 10 years of experience in the uranium industry, including exploration, development, mining and investment activities. He is responsible for CGN Mining's overseas operations, including development, mergers and acquisitions.

When asked if the uranium market is an opportunity, Paul brought an elaborate explanation, putting into place the most relevant events for the sector over the past 20 years from an historical perspective. He highlighted the characteristics of the last bull market along with several important factors and how they have changed, such as the role of low-cost producers, the Fukushima incident, expectations, the installed capacity of nuclear reactors worldwide and the signing of long-term contracts.

Ma highlighted the existence of a deficit between world demand and primary uranium production and discussed the availability of the commodity in the spot market, the possibility of taking advantage of prices to increase inventories and the importance of guaranteeing a sustainable and reliable supply throughout several decades of a reactor's useful life.

Paul spoke about jurisdictions that he considers interesting for carrying out asset acquisitions in the uranium mining sector, provided some details about two projects recently acquired in one of these locations and mentioned the characteristics he seeks in an M&A operation.

Paul commented on his perspective regarding the expansion of nuclear energy production in the Asian giant, highlighting the technologies used, the importance of reactor standardisation and economies of scale in the process.

Ma also talked about the level of uranium stock in the country, the level of prices observed today and ended by explaining the main risks he sees for the sector.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Anas Alhajji, a partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, as well as an internationally recognised author, speaker, researcher and specialist in the energy markets.

Anas begins by discussing how the issue of the types and quality of oil is important and how that impacts the world trade in this commodity. In this context, he talks about the characteristics of shale oil produced in the USA, the structure and capacity of North American refineries, the country's exports and imports of oil, the future demand for oil products and the impact of natural gas on the market.

Alhajji talks about the sharp drop in the price of oil this year and how the crisis that the sector is going through is unprecedented and the inconveniences and uncertainties that this creates for OPEC. He talks about his expectations regarding the impact of the coronavirus on oil demand and price.

Anas highlights in his analysis the influence that the American presidential election has on oil producing countries and how this is a decisive factor for the price of the commodity in 2020.

Alhajji points out that the years 2021 to 2023 should be very interesting for the sector and predicts a major global energy crisis, to which he attributes different factors, such as, the underestimation of future demand for oil products and the hype of electric vehicles.

Anas also states his point of view on the dynamics involving shale oil from the United States and Canadian tar sands.

When it comes to investment, Alhajji talks about how he prefers to position himself and where he sees more value along the sector's production chain. He also lists the main risks he sees for the sector and what can be done about the crisis he foresees.

Alhajji discusses his point of view on the expectations of oil demand made by many analysts and the exaggerations that these analysts make when estimating the impacts of certain changes.

No episódio de hoje, Marcelo López conversou com Fernando Ulrich, sócio da Liberta Investimentos, palestrante, autor do livro “Bitcoin: a moeda na era digital” e conselheiro do Instituto Mises Brasil.

Fernando conta sobre sua trajetória profissional, como vivenciou a grande crise financeira de 2008 e como teve seu primeiro contato com a Escola Austríaca a partir de então, mencionando figuras que o atraíram para o assunto, como Ron Paul e Peter Schiff.

Ulrich, que cursou mestrado em economia da Escola Austríaca em Madrid, explica como surgiu e se desenvolveu essa escola de pensamento econômico por meio de expoentes como Carl Menger, Eugen von böhm-bawerk, Ludwig von Mises e Friedrich Hayek.

Ele traça um paralelo com outras escolas de pensamento e esclarece por que os austríacos ficam excluídos do mainstream e do currículo das universidades, com menção à forma como enxergam a economia, o efeito das políticas públicas e a intervenção governamental.

Fernando, que é um entusiasta das criptomoedas, especialmente do Bitcoin, explica por que ele acredita no futuro das moedas digitais e aborda críticas relacionadas a elas, como volatilidade e funcionalidade como meio de troca e reserva de valor.

Quando o assunto é bolsa brasileira, Ulrich apresenta o case para o investimento em ativos de renda variável do Brasil, com considerações sobre as políticas públicas atualmente em curso, macroeconomia, composição do principal índice acionário local, fluxo de capital, participação de estrangeiros e responde se ainda vala a pena investir por aqui.

Sobre o dólar, Fernando dá uma explicação para o porquê de a divisa norte-americana estar no atual patamar frente ao real e fala quais as perspectivas para a moeda. Nesse contexto, ele ainda argumenta sobre a importância de se investir no exterior.

Ulrich comenta sobre os mercados globais e como a atuação dos bancos centrais e os movimentos recentes do Fed impactam os preços dos ativos mundiais. Ele discorre sobre existência de uma bolha de tudo (the everything bubble) e a repercussão que as políticas monetárias têm na sociedade geral e na política, além de tratar sobre como o Brasil reagiria na eventualidade de um crash.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Kiyan Zandiyeh, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Sturgeon Capital, a London-based investment management company founded 15 years ago and focused on frontier markets in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Kiyan explains that the company, although based in England, has teams scattered in loco in the countries in which they invest in. This enables them  to follow the local perspective and to manage, in an optimized way, the investments they make in these markets.

The main opportunity highlighted by Zandiyeh and the central theme of this episode is Uzbekistan, a country that, according to him, has essentially attractive characteristics, such as large population, favorable demography, economic diversity, large reserves of natural resources and solid foundations in terms of public finances.

Sturgeon, who has invested in Uzbekistan for 8 years, has followed the profound transformation that the country has undergone in the past 2 and a half years, since the president died and the dictatorship began to dissolve.

Kiyan tells us how the new president, until recently Prime Minister, is leading an agenda of deep reforms and restructurings that are promoting the opening of the economy, which was remarkably closed, and the country's de-bureaucratization. He gives examples of changes in the productive sectors and the foreign exchange market that have had a profound impact on the economy.

Zandiyeh also talks about the stability of the new government and about the country's growth drivers and compares it with neighbours and peers. It specifically addresses the banking sector and the opportunities that exist there.

Kiyan comments on the country's capital market, liquidity, fixed income securities, private equity and the way chosen by Sturgeon to capture the identified investment opportunities.

Finally, Zandiyeh gives his point of view on how the Uzbek economy would react in the event of a crash in global markets and what the main risks of investing in the country could be.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Mark Gordon, CIO of the Ascent Oil Fund. Before taking his current position, Mark worked for companies such as Goldman Sachs, Soros Fund Management and Janus Henderson, where he focused on investments linked to the energy sector.

Mark explains that the Ascent Oil Fund was formed under the view that there will be a migration in the oil market’s perception from abundance to scarcity, which will cause shares of companies in the sector to rise substantially.

In the context of recent tensions involving the US and Iran, Gordon explains how conflicts in the Middle East may or may not impact oil prices, depending on the factors involved.

From a historical perspective, Mark discusses the role that perception and sentiment, regarding oil scarcity or abundance, plays on prices and market performance. He also lists the reasons why he believes we are in a transition period in regards to this sentiment.

Gordon still contrasts the inventory and sentiment factors from the point of view of their influence on the price of the commodity and its related assets.

Mark talks about shale companies, highlighting the operational and financial aspects compared to conventional oil companies, their advantages and also points criticised by analysts. After that he puts forward his expectations for the industry.

On the recent performance of oil and gas stocks, Gordon provides insights into the possible reasons for the poor performance of securities, especially the E&P ones, even amid higher oil prices.

Mark brings a totally unexpected perspective on the impact that electric vehicles have on the oil sector and the consequences he sees on the development of the EV industry.

Finally, Gordon talks about how he is investing to capture what he believes to be a turnaround in the oil and gas industry, highlighting the types of companies he is fond of in the current scenario and the ones he believes should benefit from the change in sentiment, from abundance to scarcity.

In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Harris Kupperman, mostly known as Kuppy. Harris is the founder of Pretorium Capital and is famous for being a fund manager with unconventional investment ideas, some of which he writes in the blog “Adventures in Capitalism” (https://adventuresincapitalism.com/). He is always looking for asymmetrical investment opportunities in sectors that are disregarded or even scorned by most investors, which generally end up being the ones with huge potential for appreciation.

Initially, Kuppy discusses his views of the current market and system situation, the possibility of a crash, the factors involved, inflation, central bank performance and comments on what he calls Ponzi stocks.

In this context, Kupperman discusses private equity, the preference of institutional investors for businesses involving privately held companies to the detriment of publicly traded ones, players' perception of volatility and the risks involved in this type of market.

Kuppy talks about being short on the market under current circumstances and how he prefers to be long on some assets as a way to position himself for a market turnaround. From this perspective, he presents the investment thesis of the second largest position in his portfolio, with considerations on micro and macroeconomic aspects, which show his thinking when seeking investments.

Harris also compares the latest financial crisis of 2007-08 against the current scenario, with considerations and analysis of interest rates, defaults, the real estate and mortgage markets.

Kuppy talks about commodities and explains why he believes they are the biggest investment opportunity at the moment. On this occasion, he highlights uranium and its peculiarities.

Kupperman, who participated in the last uranium bull market, describes the factors that influenced the last cycle of appreciation of the commodity, and draws a comparison with the current situation in the sector.

Harris explains the investment thesis involving shipping companies, which today is the largest position in his portfolio. He highlights the cyclical behavior of the industry and the factors that may be critical to a huge appreciation of companies in this industry.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Mike Alkin, co-founder of Sachem Cove Partners and manager of an American uranium-focused hedge fund. Mike has been following this market for over 4 years as an investor and was a speaker at the International Uranium Fuel Seminar hosted by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) in Nashville, USA, in the last week of October.

Alkin, who also attended the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium in London, commented on the biennial report released by the organizers and on the differences between the two events, highlighting the significant attendance of uranium buyers at the NEI-hosted seminar in the USA.

Mike spoke about his presentation at the conference, which focused on the uranium price discovery, i.e., the process of pricing the U3O8 market from a macro and historical perspective. He drew attention to the fact that this industry is scarcely covered by sell-side analysts, and that the consensus adopted by the uranium buyers lacks important and easily refuted fallacious aspects.

In addition to highlighting factors that are hindering the industry, such as the Section 232 petition and the Trump administration's creation of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group, Mike talked about the functioning of the spot market, its peculiarities and the movements it has observed in terms of player participation and trading volumes in contrast to other times and circumstances.

Finally, Alkin discussed a major issue for investors in the industry, which is the inactivity of buyers in the face of low and unsustainable prices in an attempt to anticipate a price hike and secure low-priced material. Mike explains how the activities of buyers' professionals are structured, the incentives they have and the way they have acted historically.

In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Otávio Costa, better known in the financial markets as Tavi Costa. Tavi is a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and he is responsible for macro research.

Tavi begins by talking about his trajectory in the financial markets and tells us more about Crescat Capital, an American company that manages hedge funds. He has been working for this company for the past 6 years.

Then Tavi talks about the main topics he's looking at right now and gives us an overview of those topics.

Tavi then discusses each of the themes in more detail, exploring historical data and using Crescat's proprietary models.

He has a very interesting insight into the US position in the current cycle, and presents data to justify his opinion.

When it comes to precious metals, Tavi discusses the current scenario and outlook for the sector. Also, Tavi talks about the relationship between the US Dollar and gold, with a very different point of view from the market.

Tavi also talks about China, likely future developments in that country, and what Crescat Capital is doing now.

Finally, Tavi reviews his investment thesis and says what can make him change his mind about his investment positions.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Bill Fleckenstein, an investment manager with over 30 years of experience in the financial market. Bill shares his comments, market insights and investment ideas on the website fleckensteincapital.com.br.

Bill begins by discussing the magnitude of the attack on Saudi Arabia may have on markets depending on the actions taken in response to the incident and ponders about risk premiums and how agents have reacted to geopolitical tensions recently.

Fleckenstein then talks about the possibility that we are experiencing a bubble in the financial markets and the role that central banks, trading algorithms and passive investment vehicles play in this context, all from a historical and economic perspective, elucidating situations of distortion in asset prices.

On the possibility of a crash, Bill comments on Fed interventions, the impact of monetary policy on the market and what may be the catalyst for a strong correction, as well as aspects of the current scenario that are unprecedented in history and thus create more uncertainties.

Now is a good time to be shorting stocks? Fleckenstein, who has been very successful in the past with a short only fund, explains his point of view about being short at the moment and justifies, based on his perceptions of current market conditions, the valuations and prices observed.

Bill also talks about investing in gold and other precious metals, as well as gold mining, in contrast to other asset classes such as bonds and currencies, considering all the factors hitherto exposed.

As for the US-China trade war, Fleckenstein discusses his views on the issue and his expectations of a resolution for the problem. He also talks about the way Trump and next year's US elections might impact those obstacles.

Bill concludes with an analysis of risks that are not being properly priced by the market.

In today's episode, Marcelo talked to Fred Hickey, editor of the famous publication The High Tech Strategis (HTS). The HTS is a monthly publication with more than 32 years of existence that brings to its readers an independent view on macroeconomic aspects, investments in the technology and precious metals sector.

Fred explains that he began following and writing about precious metals in the early 2000s, as he believed it was necessary to protect oneself against financial measures taken by central banks.

Fred Hickey brings his insight on technology companies and stresses that he is seeing a new bubble. In particular, he comments on the case of Huawei and the possibility of it being banned from doing business in the US.

In the macroeconomic arena, he discusses the possibility of a global economic downturn and recession, bringing various metrics, indicators and examples to support his views.

Fred talks about how the central bank's action has led to a poor allocation of investments worldwide and the consequences that this can bring. He also commented on the companies that burn cash extravagantly, but somehow are able to exist today.

Fred Hickey explains in details his arguments about the bubble he believes we are in now, the role that passive investment has had in shaping it, the stage of the cycle we are in, cryptocurrencies, the possibility of a crash and the reaction of central banks in the midst of all this.

Fred comments on his point of view regarding controversial electric car maker Tesla and its founder Elon Musk.

When asked about how to invest in the current scenario, Fred Hickey suggests allocations that he considers sensible, given all his views at the moment, going through the issue of currency devaluation, the impact on asset inflation and the cost of living.

When the subject is gold, Fred describes the recent movements in the price of the metal, which he believes is now in a new bull market. He also highlights how the participation of extremely leveraged traders affect the price of gold and he describes in detail what he characterizes as a gold transfer west to east.

In addition to talking about his expectations for gold prices in the future, Fred Hickey commented in detail on mining stocks he follows, such as Agnico Eagle Mines and Kirkland, to name a few, and talked about their operations, characteristics and other investment-related metrics that are relevant.

Fred closed his remarks talking about his views on the risks that people are not taking into account, especially expectations regarding the monetary policy of the Fed.

In this episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources Limited, a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, ASX, focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines.

Munro begins by telling a little about the company's history, as well as about his trajectory within the company, from the acquisition of the Etango Project in Namibia, various studies and licenses and the way the company handled the accident at Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011.

Asked by Marcelo about the country where the company's activities are concentrated, Brandon explains with the knowledge of those who had lived there for several years, mentioning that Namibia contradicts the stereotype that the West has about the African continent. He highlights the characteristics that differentiate Namibia from other countries, emphasizing the quality of its road and port infrastructure, its political stability and the inheritance of German colonization.

Next, Munro provides a detailed explanation of the recent dynamics of uranium spot prices in the face of the trajectory to the current US$30/lb, highlighting events that have modified the demand, such as the emergence of specialized investment vehicles in the acquisition of the commodity . He also shows how he sees price behavior going forward, the levels that may be decisive for the reaction of market participants, and their impact on industry action.

Munro then shares a thorough analysis of how long-term contracts have always dominated the scene, while the spot was negligible and served only as a balancing mechanism. According to him, the Fukushima incident created a huge distortion in the market, profoundly altering the dynamics of the contracts. Brandon points out that we are in an unprecedented situation for this industry, which could significantly boost the bull market of the commodity.

Asked about the latest bull market, Brandon points to how prices rose from about US$20/lb to US$136/lb very rapidly and talks about the similarities with the 1970s. He emphasizes that current prices are unsustainable in view of production costs and that the only way out would be a huge increase in prices, possibly to multiples of current levels. He bases his argument with an estimate for the minimum price that would bring the market back to equilibrium.

Munro brings some of his vision about sentiment in relation to the commodity, going from the recent lack of interest from investors and getting to a situation in which more and more attention is given to the sector. He still explains and cites examples of why the stock prices did not follow the commodity price over the last few months.

Asked about Section 232, Brandon outlines different scenarios of what Trump's response to the request might be, on the grounds of strategic and national security point of view. He also mentions what he believes will be the implications for the companies in the uranium sector.

Munro also talks about his perspective on pricing scenarios and the performance of the two largest companies in the industry, KazAtomProm and Cameco. Regarding the latter, he still discusses the impacts of Cameco’s decision to put its largest mine in care & maintenance and to buy uranium on the spot market to honor its contracts, instead of producing.

Brandon then gives a real lesson on how uranium stocks work, highlighting the operational characteristics of each type, levels, potential for enrichment and its impacts on the market and price volatility.

Munro also talks about what the stock investor should look for when looking for uranium-related assets. He points out that there are few companies that are accessible in the industry and that many have specific risks, not related to the commodity itself, but to jurisdiction, for example.

Brandon concludes by commenting on the feeling about uranium and atomic energy as an alternative energy, comparing i

 In this episode, Marcelo talks to Martin North, from Digital Finance Analytics (DFA). DFA is a boutique research, analysis and consulting firm providing advisory services to clients in Australia and beyond.  

Martin starts by explaining how his company, DFA, conducts the research and consulting work. DFA follows a philosophy of its own and looks at different perspectives, with a wealth of detail.

Following on, North talks about the downward trajectory of real estate prices in Australia in 2018, which he had already anticipated, after several years of expressive appreciation. He explains why prices have risen so robustly over the last few decades and shares his point of view for the near future.

Asked about credit expansion and the granting of real estate loans, Martin presents recent numbers and market trends and highlights the strong influence of investors, including foreigners, in this sector. He further clarifies how rising property prices have led to a change in household indebtedness and composition of the budget - and the consequences for the economy as a whole.

Martin, when asked about the report published by the Banking Royal Commission on February 4, highlights the main points of the document and analyzes the problems with the banking system and the country's indebtedness and how they constitute a potential problem for the national economy. He also compares the situation in Australia with the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis in the US.

Marcelo comments on the fact that a significant portion of households have negative equity and asks about the upcoming decisions of the Australian central bank, the Royal Bank of Australia, regarding interest rates and the impacts of this for the real estate sector. Martin comments on what he thinks will be the decision of the monetary authority in the face of the economic situation and still points particularities of different regions of the country and how they can be determining factors in the way that real estate prices will behave.

An important and interesting risk is questioned by Marcelo regarding the quality and construction standards adopted in the country and Martin, besides explaining the reason for this risk, reiterates his point of view that many properties may turn into chanty towns in the future and highlights the turn from excess demand to excess supply.

Are there more risks that people are not paying attention to? Martin North highlights Australia's strong link with China, rising funding costs, and political risk: elections in the country can lead to the termination of negative gearing. In addition to these, North believes there are many other risks that lead him to believe that the downside far outweighs the upside.

Finally, Martin explains why Australia is heading for a complicated period for the next 5 years, and why 2019 will probably be what 2006 was for the United States in relation to the financial crisis.