ASEAN Speaks

Erica Tay, economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group assesses the impact of China's industrial push on ASEAN exports at a time when ASEAN is seeing increased FDI and post-pandemic export recovery.

Even as EV growth is forecasted for a slowdown in 2024 with weak Q1 2024 sales reported by leading EV companies, plus news that Apple has just put its EV project to the ground, there is still room for robust EV growth for investors in ASEAN, says Jigar Shah, Head, Sustainability Research, Maybank Investment Banking Group.

In this episode, Chak Reungsinpinya, Head of Research, Maybank Securities Thailand discusses what’s ahead for Thai equities amid challenges that the market is facing, and highlights his favourite stocks at the moment.

Anand Pathmakanthan, Head of Regional Equity Research, Maybank Investment Banking Group, shares the latest global and ASEAN ESG developments and trends, as well as updates on Malaysia’s sustainability scores and ESG portfolios.

Amid Thailand's bid to pass a bill that will legalise casinos, what's the scenario when the bricks are laid, and the impact on gaming companies in other regional markets? Samuel Yin, analyst at Maybank IBG, gives his insights.

Saktiandi Supaat, Head of FX Research at Maybank, assesses currencies performances in the past easing cycles, putting in perspective how central banks actions are impacting various currencies today, and shares his top 3 Asian currency picks.

Desmond Chng, Analyst, Maybank IBG, explains his positive outlook on Malaysia's banking sector and the stocks that he's maintaining buy calls for at the moment.

Maybank IBG Regional Co-Head for Macro, Chua Hak Bin, re-caps how major central banks' interest rate policies last week, are moving markets.

With a 125 billion peso capitalisation plan for the Philippines sovereign Maharlika Investment Fund in place, which sectors are the fund targeting and why, and how will their growth accelerate the country’s economic development? Dr Zamros Dzulkafli, Economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group, shares his latest research on the fund.

Anand Pathmakanthan, Head of Regional Equity Research, Maybank Investment Banking Group, is optimistic on ASEAN markets for 2024. He shares his ideas on the sectors and stocks that are under his radar.

Hosted by Thilan Wickramasinghe, Maybank Investment Bank Research speaks with Dan Ives, Managing Director Equity Research of Wedbush Securities on Nasdaq's recent performance and the Magnificent 7.

Saktiandi Supaat, Head of Forex Research at Maybank explains how the weak economy and rising inflation are reasons behind his forecast revisions on the Thai Baht, while looming uncertainties surrounding the US elections in November are weighing on his outlook for the RMB. He also highlights the currencies to watch in the region.

Rising disposable income, positive pre-sales guidance, and the incoming Prabowo-Gibran administration’s pledge to continue with Jokowi administration policies, will be beneficial for Indonesia’s real estate sector. William Jefferson, analyst with Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia, shares his insights.

The Red Sea Crisis has caused significant disruption in global shipping and freight rates. Loh Yan Jin, analyst at Maybank Investment Banking Group, explains the impact of the crisis on Malaysia and her outlook on freight rates.

Brian Lee, economist at Maybank Securities, gives an update on how the Singapore economy has been faring so far this year, and how will Budget 2024 address the economic concerns of businesses, given the high inflation and operating costs.

Come 16 February, Singapore will be announcing Budget 2024. Chua Hak Bin, our regional co-head of macro, gives a preview on fiscal balance, possible measures to support inclusivity and green transition, updates on the global minimum tax and what other initiatives can individuals and corporates look forward to.

Will the Dragon year be good for the economy from a fengshui perspective, and which zodiac animals will be lucky in love? Master Ken Koh from the House of Fengshui demystifies the year ahead with investing tips based on this ancient belief.

The latest Maybank thematic report on ASEAN tourism showed an underwhelming recovery of China tourist arrivals in 2023. What happened, and will the story be different this year? Chua Hak Bin, Regional Co-Head, Macro Research at Maybank, gives his outlook.

Krishna Guha, REIT analyst at Maybank Securities, gives his picks for investors looking at the S-REIT space.

The latest set of China economic data sent shudders through the markets, with China-related stocks falling nearly 4 percent on Wednesday. Erica Tay, economist at Maybank IBG discusses how policymakers can raise GDP growth in 2024.

The year started on a good note underpinned by policy thematics. Chua Hak Bin, our regional Co Head of Macro speaks to our analysts on their market outlook.

02:01 – Macro intro – Chua Hak Bin

03:08 – ASEAN markets to watch – Anand Pathmakanthan

08:02 – Malaysia-Singapore’s MOU – Wong Wei Sum

10:39 – Key themes for gaming sector – Yin Shao Yang

15:10 – Thailand consumer finance sector outlook – Jesada Techahusdin

17:23 – Philippines market investment themes – Rachelleen Rodriguez

Producer: Esther Phua, Maybank IBG

Some Asean markets are off to a positive start, what’s driving them and which markets are foreign investors looking to position in 2024? Anand Pathmakanthan, Head of Regional Equity Research at Maybank shares his thoughts.

Moving into 2024, Singapore’s economy sees green shoots in export and manufacturing, with overall recovery in Asean markets, says Chua Hak Bin, Maybank’s regional co-head for Macroeconomics.

In our first episode for 2024, our economists and analysts give an overview of their outlook for Asean economies – Singapore to Malaysia to the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, as well as China. Tune in to find out what are some exciting forecasts to look forward to in the regional markets.

00:20 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin

02:05 - Green shoots themes - Chua Hak Bin

05:08 - Singapore - Chua Hak Bin

07:59 - Malaysia - Suhaimi Ilias

12:59 - China - Erica Tay

18:44 - Bonds - Winson Phoon

21:22 - Forex - Saktiandi Supaat

25:13 - Indonesia - Brian Lee

28:25 - Philippines - Zamros Dzulkifli

32:27 - Thailand – Erica Tay

38:53 - Vietnam - Brian Lee

Producer: Esther Phua, Maybank IBG

In this week’s highlight, Jeremie Yap, our analyst, outlines the beneficiaries of Petronas as it decides how to strike a balance between capital expenditure, dividend commitment and balance sheet preservation. He speaks with Chua Hak Bin. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

This week, we consider the reasons for China's delayed Economic Plenum, assess Indonesia's inflation jump, consider multi-year market trends in Singapore, and outline our equities strategy for the Philippines.

00:20 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin

04:36 - CN PMI - Erica Tay

06:38 - CN Economic Plenum postponed - Erica Tay

08:12 - TH interest rate - Erica Tay

10:39 - VN GDP - Brian Lee

13:18 - ID inflation - Brian Lee

15:03 - SG strategy - Thilan Wickramasinghe

19:03 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan

22:44 - Petronas 3Q results - Jeremie Yap

24:44 - PH strategy - Rachelleen Rodriguez

Producer: Noelle Lim, Group Global Banking, Maybank

Malaysian banks are expected to deliver weaker second half earnings compared to the first half this year. Why and what’s our earnings forecast for 2024 and top stock picks? Winson Phoon discusses with Desmond Ch’ng, our Banking Analyst. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

As the year is concluding, we highlight our expectations for Malaysia's 2024 economic reforms amidst the runway to the next General Elections, while exploring the impact of subsidies rationalization on inflation. Additionally, we examine Thailand's lower than expected Q3 GDP, and share insights from our Thai Bank Day, as well as discuss our equities strategy for Indonesia.

00:33 - Roundup - Winson Phoon

03:56 - MY 2024 - Suhaimi Ilias

08:52 - MY balance of payments - Zamros Dzulkafli

10:26 - MY inflation - Zamros Dzulkafli

13:24 - SG inflation - Brian Lee

15:45 - SG GDP - Brian Lee

17:58 - ID interest rate - Brian Lee

19:33 - TH GDP - Erica Tay

23:35 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng

25:48 - TH Bank Day - Jesada Techahusdin

27:18 - ID strategy - Jeffrosenberg Chenlim

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank 

Indonesia’s general elections will take place on the 14th of February next year. Who is likely to win in what we expect to be a prolonged contest? Brian Lee, our Economist, discusses with Chua Hak Bin. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Towards the year end, ASEAN markets are expected to do better on the back of more resilient economic data. Our analysts discuss this including the outcome of President Joe Biden and Xi Jinpings’ meeting. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s general elections will take place on the 14 February next year - who is likely to lead in what we expect to be a prolonged contest? 

00:25 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin

04:07 - MY 3Q GDP - Suhaimi Ilias

09:35 - PMX at APAC - Suhaimi Ilias

11:32 - CN 4Q GDP - Erica Tay

14:34 - CN property - Erica Tay

16:45 - Biden-Xi - Erica Tay

18:14 - USD/Yuan - Saktiandi Supaat

21:57 - ID elections - Brian Lee

24:48 - PH rate hikes - Zamros Dzulkafli

26:51 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan

29:23 - CPO prices - Ong Chee Ting

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

In our highlight today, Erica Tay, our Economist discusses with Suhaimi Ilias on the outlook for China’s growth as export weaknesses continue while imports pick up. For the full conversation with her on China and other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Is China’s economy propped up by policy support or demand? In the other large economy, Indonesia - GDP growth moderated to the lowest since the third quarter of 2021. Will growth be firmer towards the end of the year and in the lead up to the presidential elections in 2024? Meanwhile in Thailand, the Prime Minister had announced its largest stimulus in the form of cash handout via the digital wallet. 

00:29 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias

06:49 - CN trade, GDP - Erica Tay

13:33 - PH GDP, interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli

17:30 - ID GDP - Brian Lee

21:17 - Policy actions, reserves - Saktiandi Supaat

28:27 - PH equities - Rachelleen Rodriguez

31:45 - TH equities - Chan Reungsinpinya 

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

Trade and manufacturing data in the ASEAN-6 markets are showing nascent signs of recovery. Suhaimi Ilias speaks to Chua Hak Bin, our co-Head of Macro on Maybank’s outlook. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Given events over the weekend, the Middle East conflict may escalate, impacting currencies and other assets, and risk spurring inflation again. Meanwhile, the US's robust GDP growth, backed by deficit spending and subsidies for semiconductor, will help drive ASEAN export growth. How might these different developments affect ASEAN and central banks' decisions on interest rates?

00:30 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias

06:45 - Regional green shoots - Chua Hak Bin

11:28 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli

14:20 - TH macro - Erica Tay

18:52 - FX - Saktiandi Supaat

24:16 - ID property - William Jefferson

25:49 - SG telco - Kelvin Tan

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

Why did the Ringgit drop to a record low? Chua Hak Bin speaks to Saktiandi Supaat, the Head of Forex Research at Maybank. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Amidst geopolitical tensions and higher for longer interest rates, we unpack Malaysia’s maiden GDP advanced estimate for the third quarter, the better than expected growth in China, the outlook of the Ringgit and Rupiah, and if there is more downside to Singapore REITs.

00:24 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin

05:15 - MY 3Q GDP, inflation - Suhaimi Ilias

10:03 - CN GDP - Erica Tay

14:31 - Ringgit - Saktiandi Supaat

17:29 - Rupiah - Saktiandi Supaat

19:57 - FX opportunities - Saktiandi Supaat

21:46 - ASEAN picks - Anand Pathmakanthan

23:44 - SG REITs - Krishna Guha

25:26 - PH rice price - Daphne Sze

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

The highlight for this week is the beneficiaries of Malaysia’s Budget 2024. Wong Chew Hann, our Malaysian Head of Equity Research discusses. For the full analysis on Budget and updates from other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

For Asia this week, watch for China’s growth data and central bank decisions in Indonesia. We also provide further analysis on Malaysia’s Budget 2024, the oil and gas sector, and Thailand’s renewable energy expansion.

00:24 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin

05:25 - MY Budget 2024 - Suhaimi Ilias

11:18 - MY Budget 2024 (markets) - Wong Chew Hann

15:27 - MY Budget 2024 (bonds) - Winson Phoon

20:31 - CN trade, GDP - Erica Tay

25:25 - ID interest rate - Brian Lee

27:21 - Oil and gas - Jeremie Yap

31:19 - TH renewables - Natchaphon Rodjanarowan

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

Our Economist Erica Tay takes stock of what happened over China’s Golden Week and the spillover benefits to ASEAN. Suhaimi Ilias speaks with her. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

The latest Middle East conflict has caused oil prices to soar, and US macro factors continue to drive markets. In view of this, what should investors watch out for this week? 

00:21 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias

05:32 - CN Golden Week - Erica Tay

12:06 - SG macro - Brian Lee

14:30 - VN macro - Brian Lee

19:20 - VN markets - Hoang Huy

22:44 - PH consumer - Daphne Sze

23:52 - PH conglomerates - Jacqui de Jesus

25:55 - Currencies - Saktiandi Supaat

29:19 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

This Highlight is on Maybank’s expectations of Malaysia Budget 2024. Winson Phoon gets the details from Suhaimi Ilias, our Group Chief Economist. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

We highlight expectations of Malaysia’s Budget to be tabled on 13 Oct, and our outlook on Singapore as manufacturing slumped by the most since November 2019. Meanwhile in Thailand, watch for non-performing loans and government incentives. Also as the US government averts a shutdown, what is the immediate term for the US dollar? And how will the Chinese Yuan hold up during this super Golden Week?

00:35 - Roundup - Winson Phoon

04:45 - MY Budget 2024 - Suhaimi Ilias

12:06 - MY fuel subsidy - Suhaimi Ilias

14:34 - TH GDP - Erica Tay

18:23 - TH banking - Jesada Techahusdin

19:52 - SG manufacturing - Brian Lee

24:57 - Dollar outlook - Saktiandi Supaat

27:56 - CNH, Ringgit - Saktiandi Supaat

29:54 - TH equities - Chak Reungsinpinya

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

What is Maybank’s revised forecast for the Fed Funds Rate? Winson Phoon discusses with Dr Chua Hak Bin, our Co-Head of Macro. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

We discuss our revised forecast in light that the FOMC has guided for one more 25 basis point hike this year. Additionally for ASEAN equities, specifically the Thai market, why did it experience a pullback despite the resolution of political uncertainty? We also look at different industries - the outlook for large scale solar projects in Malaysia, the cement industry in Indonesia, and retail in Thailand. 

00:34 - Roundup - Winson Phoon

04:28 - FOMC - Chua Hak Bin

06:55 - SG NODX - Chua Hak Bin

08:59 - ASEAN, ESG calls - Anand Pathmakanthan

14:59 - KLCI - Anand Pathmakanthan

15:45 - MY Solar - Nur Farah Syifaa

18:33 - ID cement - William Jefferson

21:35 - TH consumer - Suttatip Peerasub

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

What is the outlook for the Thai Baht? Chua Hak Bin speaks with Saktiandi Supaat, Head of Forex Research at Maybank on his latest ASEAN Macro report. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Our analysts do a deep dive of data that came out last week and what to expect - China macro, GDP growth in Malaysia, Indonesian trade numbers, REITs in Thailand and Malaysia, and crude palm oil prices. Chua Hak Bin, our Co-Head of Macro, speaks with our teams across the region. 

00:22 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin

03:16 - CN macro - Erica Tay

06:22 - MY GDP - Zamros Dzulkafli

10:54 - ID trade - Brian Lee

15:14 - TH Baht - Saktiandi Supaat

19:59 - TH REITs - Wasu Mattanapotchanart

22:48 - MY REITs - Nur Farah Syifaa

25:11 - CPO - Ong Chee Ting

Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

While we remain constructive on Malaysian equities and maintain our year end KLCI target at 1,520, what are the pressure points in the near term? Suhaimi Ilias, our Chief Economist, speaks with Wong Chew Hann, Head of Research in Malaysia. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

We unpack our analysis on China as we downgrade its GDP growth to 4.8% in 2023 from 5%, and 4.4% in 2024 from 4.6%, and consider the pressure points on earnings in Malaysia and ASEAN including the banks.

00:20 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias

05:19 - China macro - Erica Tay

9:21 - TH macro - Erica Tay

11:42 - PH macro - Zamros Dzulkafli

16:24 - MY earnings - Wong Chew Hann

24:05 - ASEAN banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe

26:11 - ASEAN catalysts - Anand Pathmakanthan

28:58 - TH energy - Chak Reungsinpinya