OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast
By OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast
OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast Jan 13, 2021
BasisAI: Not Basic At All! (Liu Fengyuan)
Feeling Empowered by EngageRocket (CheeTung Leong)
Cashing in with e-payments platform KSher (Siva Ramanathan)
Back to the Future: Taking Neighbourhood Shops Worldwide (Teddy Oetomo)
Back to the Future: Scaling Up with Skala (Eddy Christian Ng)
Credit Catch-Up: Rising property prices, REITs and unusual events
Back to the Future: Not Cryptic about Crypto (Jeth Soetoyo)
Back to the Future: Waste Not, Want Not (Jonathan Ng of SinFooTech)
Evolving times for CapitaLand (Wong Hong Wei)
Back to the Future: Finding Synergy in what you do (Wellian Wiranto)
Back to the Future: 'Hangry' For More (Wellian Wiranto)
How the US Treasury yield environment affects USD (Terence Wu)
Surprised by Singapore’s 4Q20 GDP growth revision? (Selena Ling)
Banks - the shock absorbers of 2020 (Andrew Wong)
The Popularity of Temasek Linked Companies (Ezien Hoo)
Who's keeping the Singapore property market booming? (Wong Hong Wei)
REITs - Big Gets Bigger (Seow Zhi Qi)
Four key trends dominated the REIT market in 2020. The largest REIT was created last year, along with more REITs expanding overseas aggressively. Over the year, we also saw travel restrictions and stay home orders negatively impactingà the various property types. Some of the pain may be brief but for others, it might be trouble to reach an even recovery. Tune in to find out how our credit research analysts view the different property assets.
Commodities outlook 2021 (Howie Lee)
This looks like the start of a super commodity cycle. Watch for gold to make new highs once more in 2021.
Outlook for credit 2021 (Andrew Wong)
Although downside risks dominate, we think manageable credit risk in 2021 can enable investors to selectively look for higher yielding credits for returns in a low rate environment, although don’t stray too far away from fundamentals.
Economic outlook for Singapore 2021 (Selena Ling)
For Singapore, an unprecedented recession in 2020 should give way to a return to positive growth in 2021 amid the Covid-19 vaccine rollout and sustained policy support.
FX Outlook 2021 (Terence Wu)
The USD should remain under negative pressure in early 2021 as the market should still be focusing on positives and retaining a risk-on posture. However, some USD positive drivers are slowly developing under the radar. So watch for potential turning points that may shift attention towards this area and alter the USD trajectory.
Tail Risks 2021
The retail landscape in Singapore and Retail REITs (Seow Zhi Qi)
While we have seen accelerated growth in online sales, it is not end of physical stores in Singapore. Among other things, location is the key factor that can help to cushion downside impacts. In the short term, non-performing tenants would depart, and malls may have to accept negative rental reversion to bring in new tenants. Over the long term, we expect the malls to continue to attract new tenants and to evolve with the times.
Commodities Tuesday: Crude oil may benefit from rotation into value (Howie Lee)
The rotation of funds from growth to value has begun with the recent breakthroughs in Covid-19 vaccines. Among the commodity space, we see oil benefiting from this rotation due to its relative value.
ENN Energy: A company benefitting from China's transition to a cleaner environment (Ezien Hoo)
As policies continue to prioritise the development of natural gas as a way for China to reduce its reliance on coal, OCBC Credit Research weighs the merits and risks of investing in this USD bond issuer.
Fast Food Champion of the Philippines (Wong Hong Wei)
We focus on Singapore's favourite past-time: Food. Serving Chicken Joy fried chicken, Cheesy Yumburger and Spaghetti laced with sweet sauce, the company which is also the fast food champion of the Philippines has captured the hearts of families, individuals and our credit research analyst alike.
Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)
Our commodity calls are coming into play quite nicely. Oil appears to be at a critical juncture and looks poised for the next medium-term trend.
Singapore's 3Q GDP (Selena Ling and Terence Wu)
Our Chief Economist, Selena Ling, and our FX Strategist, Terence Wu, discuss the main takeaways from Singapore's 3Q GDP release and the MAS monetary policy statement.
China removes the 20% risk reserve requirement for purchasing foreign currency via derivatives (Tommy Xie)
What does this mean? What's the rational behind that? What's the possible implication on RMB? In this podcast, we will try to answer those questions.
Commodities Tuesdays (Howie Lee)
Bullish agriculture, neutral crude oil and bearish industrial metals. Find out why in this week's edition of Commodities Tuesdays.
3 burning questions about Singapore (Selena Ling)
In this podcast, our chief economist, Selena Ling, discusses the Singapore property market, what the transition to Phase 3 will mean for GDP growth, and the upcoming MAS monetary policy meeting.
Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)
Why Libya’s production resumption tilts the oil market, and why we think metals will continue to face downward pressure.
Non-traditional REITs (Ezien Hoo)
These REITs capitalise on opportunities but for whose benefit and at whose expense? Tune in to find out more.
Under pressure (Howie Lee)
With the building risk-off momentum, we think energy and industrial metals are under pressure.
RMB - still room to strengthen (Terence Wu)
In this podcast, we touch on the developments on the Sino-US front and the on-track macro recovery in China as positives for the RMB. Further details and other positives, such as a seeming shift in official stance towards the RMB and yield differentials, are covered in our recently published FX Viewpoint - RMB: Still room to strengthen, available on our research website.
Staycation Salvation: Can domestic travellers save ASEAN tourism? (Wellian Wiranto)
Given the imposition of cross border travel restrictions, the tourism industry across ASEAN countries has suffered a tremendous hit. Into the void comes the idea that domestic travellers, who cannot venture abroad, may offer some salvation in the meantime, bolstered by government stimulus incentives. We examine the potential for such help in a few countries here.
Hospitality issuers – credit outlook (Ezien Hoo)
In March and April, we lowered the issuer profile of hospitality issuers under our coverage as international borders started closing, along with dampening travel demand. Five months on, how have SGD hospitality bond issuers fared? In this podcast, our credit research analyst, Ezien Hoo, discusses the opportunity and risks within this SGD bond sector.
Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)
Energy, base metals, agriculture - that is how we rank our bullishness among the sub sectors, in ascending order. Listen to find out more!
A Biden administration may not be as USD-negative as you think (Terence Wu)
We are often led to believe that a Republican president will be USD-positive due to the perception that the president will more likely bring US macro outperformance. Historically, we find no systematic relationship between the USD performance and the winning president's party. Instead, we should consider whether a Trump or a Biden administration is better placed to address the current USD-negative drivers. Taking this approach suggests that a Biden administration may not be as USD-negative in the near term as you may believe.
Commodities update: What's performing and what's sagging? (Howie Lee)
Metals continue their run up, while energy sagged on a series of negative news. Agriculture looks like it may be the next outperformer.
A grimmer 2020, but brighter days ahead in 2021? (Selena Ling)
The latest MAS survey of professional forecasters (SPF) shared some interesting insights, namely the worst is likely over, but the Singapore economy will still see a severe 2020 recession with GDP growth likely to shrink 6% yoy. However, there may be a sharp growth bounce of 5.5% in 2021, notwithstanding the familiar risks of an escalation in the Covid-19 pandemic and US-China tensions. Consequently, the mild disinflationary environment should subside and revert to positive inflation prints next year. The policy implication is that MAS is likely to be static at the upcoming monetary policy review in October.
Clarity on interest rate outlook and a solid end to the month for credit (Andrew Wong)
OCBC Bank Credit Analyst Andrew Wong shares in this podcast recent developments in the credit market and the interest rate outlook. He expects credit market activity to remain brisk in September and that issuers will begin to have better clarity on their performance for 2020 as we enter the final month of 3Q2020. Check out the monthly credit view on the OCBC website for further information on bond level recommendation changes.
Fed’s average inflation target and a K-shape recovery? (Selena Ling)
Fed chair Powell has articulated a shift to an average inflation target of 2%. This has given the green light to the risk rally. But the market is also concerned about prospects of a K-shaped recovery. What does this mean for the Singapore economy? Tune in and find out!
Commodities bull run fuelled by China’s buying (Howie Lee)
China’s buying of energy, industrial metals and agriculture commodities continues, keeping prices supported across the spectrum.
US-China tension: New parameters. New reaction. (Tommy Xie)
What are the new parameters adding to the current US-China tension? Is this time different? Reasons why we think China may not go down the path of tit-for-tat despite the significant escalation of the tension. This could be the relief the global financial market needs.
Keppel Corp: Status quo for now (Ezien Hoo)
We are maintaining our issuer profile on Keppel despite its credit metric deterioration and single largest shareholder walking away from the pre-conditional partial takeover offer. Despite equity markets reacting negatively to the developments, reaction on Keppel's bonds has been far more muted.
Singapore's 2Q20 GDP growth: Revised lower, but worst is likely over (Selena Ling)
Singapore's 2Q20 GDP growth was revised to -13.2% year-on-year, down from initial flash estimates of -12.6% year-on-year. While manufacturing, construction and the services sectors have taken a big hit, there's a silver lining in the finance and insurance sector which still saw positive growth of 3.4% year-on-year, despite it being half of the 8.3% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2020. With escalating US-China tensions, and the long-tail nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, Singapore's GDP growth may continue to contract, albeit by a milder 7.5% and 1.5% year-on-year in the third and fourth quarters of this year respectively.
Investors continue search for yield (Andrew Wong)
OCBC Credit Research recently published its monthly credit view for August with some interesting trends in the US, Asia dollar and SGD space. In all, the technical environment remains strong but the team remains cautious on the fundamental outlook. Investors however are continuing to search for yield and this could drive demand back to structural high yield instruments. Activity in the SGD space has firmed up with the total number of bond level recommendation changes falling. With swap rates lower m/m, we still see value with 19 bond level recommendations raised and 13 lowered. Please check out our monthly credit view on the OCBC website for further information on these bond level recommendation changes.
Superpower Showdown - Who's got the better handle on Covid-19?
Tensions between the US and China have hit an all-time high. What's brewing between the world's superpowers? Our economists, Wellian Wiranto and Tommy Xie, break down how the two largest economies in the world have been dealing with the political fallout, the Covid-19 pandemic, and what lies ahead as the fate of their economies hang in the balance.
Dollar cost averaging and why it's beneficial for investors (Vasu Menon)
With markets so volatile, should investors be investing now or waiting for blue skies? Our Executive Director of Investment Strategy, Vasu Menon, advises investors to stay invested using a dollar cost averaging strategy, instead of trying to time the markets or bottom-fishing investments. This can benefit investors by lowering the average cost per share of an investment, and is a good and systematic way of investing in the markets during times of uncertainty. This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2020.