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OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast

OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast

By OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast

Build your edge with insights from the team of economists and analysts from OCBC Treasury Research & Strategy. Stay ahead of trends and developments on the economies and asset classes including FX, rates, fixed income/bonds, commodities https://t.me/OCBCResearchInsights
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Shifting fortunes in the SGD corporate bond market (Ezien Hoo)

OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast Jul 21, 2020

00:00
08:14
BasisAI: Not Basic At All! (Liu Fengyuan)

BasisAI: Not Basic At All! (Liu Fengyuan)

In our last episode of Back to the Future, we speak to Liu Fengyuan, CEO and co-founder of BasisAI. He shares how his Singapore-based artificial intelligence start-up helps companies around the region find and use data "responsibly". The ex-chief data scientist for the Singapore government also reveals how he rolled out the Smart Nation initiative.
May 14, 202124:09
Feeling Empowered by EngageRocket (CheeTung Leong)

Feeling Empowered by EngageRocket (CheeTung Leong)

How has Covid-19 made the role of human resources more important? Is working from home a permanent solution? In this episode, we speak to ex-Singapore naval officer CheeTung Leong about how his experience laid the foundation for his start-up, EngageRocket. The firm uses cloud-based software to help leaders and organisations make better decision about hires and employees using real-time data.
May 07, 202122:16
Cashing in with e-payments platform KSher (Siva Ramanathan)

Cashing in with e-payments platform KSher (Siva Ramanathan)

Siva Ramanathan shares how he is applying his decades of experience setting up new operations for the likes of AirAsia and applying it to new ventures, such as China-based, cross-border e-payments KSher. He also shares his thoughts on how traditional companies can reinvent themselves to attract young talents and position for the future.
Apr 30, 202120:22
Back to the Future: Taking Neighbourhood Shops Worldwide (Teddy Oetomo)

Back to the Future: Taking Neighbourhood Shops Worldwide (Teddy Oetomo)

Teddy Oetomo built Bukalapak to take small convenience shops scattered across the country and help them go global with his e-commerce platform. Hear how he did it, and why he thinks SPACs (special purpose acquisiton companies) have dominated market discussion about the tech industry.
Apr 23, 202130:54
Back to the Future: Scaling Up with Skala (Eddy Christian Ng)

Back to the Future: Scaling Up with Skala (Eddy Christian Ng)

Wellian Wiranto speaks to Eddy Christian Ng about his entrepreneurial journey, that has taken him from creating an online furniture marketplace, helping suppliers get access to working capital through blockchain tech, and now, mentoring young start-ups while in the venture capital space.
Apr 16, 202143:42
Credit Catch-Up: Rising property prices, REITs and unusual events

Credit Catch-Up: Rising property prices, REITs and unusual events

In this episode recorded 14 April 2021, the Credit Research team discusses the Singapore property market and whether cooling measures are imminent, what the best REIT sectors are, as well as idiosyncratic developments with Credit Suisse, China Huarong and Alibaba.
Apr 16, 202112:46
Back to the Future: Not Cryptic about Crypto (Jeth Soetoyo)

Back to the Future: Not Cryptic about Crypto (Jeth Soetoyo)

Cryptocurrencies is all the rage. In this episode, Wellian Wiranto speaks to Jeth Soetoyo of Pintu, an Indonesia-based cryptocurrency exchange. Come learn the difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum, the rising importance of bitcoin technology in creating decentralised financial systems, and whether it's possible to regulate something that seems to exist in the Matrix.
Apr 09, 202125:01
Back to the Future: Waste Not, Want Not (Jonathan Ng of SinFooTech)

Back to the Future: Waste Not, Want Not (Jonathan Ng of SinFooTech)

Wellian Wiranto chats with Jonathan Ng of SinFooTech, the Singaporean start-up turning food waste and by-products into alcohol.
Apr 01, 202129:51
Evolving times for CapitaLand (Wong Hong Wei)

Evolving times for CapitaLand (Wong Hong Wei)

CapitaLand is undergoing major restructuring and will go private after more than 20 years of being publicly listed. It is also spinning out CapitaLand Investments Management as a separately listed entity. Although shareholders have rejoiced, how are bondholders and perp holders impacted? What would happen to CapitaLand-sponsored REITs?
Apr 01, 202106:46
Back to the Future: Finding Synergy in what you do (Wellian Wiranto)

Back to the Future: Finding Synergy in what you do (Wellian Wiranto)

Wellian Wiranto speaks to Steve Piro, founder of Synergy, the company that retrofits buildings across Indonesia to cut electricity consumption using innovative financing incentives. Hear how the American found the right local partners, learned things he did not expect to on the go and pushed his vision for a greener world.
Mar 26, 202118:16
Back to the Future: 'Hangry' For More (Wellian Wiranto)

Back to the Future: 'Hangry' For More (Wellian Wiranto)

In this new podcast series, economist Wellian Wiranto speaks to start-ups revving to go in the post-pandemic world. Our first episode is a chat with Abraham Viktor, the co-founder and CEO of Hangry, an Indonesian "cloud kitchen" start-up finding a foothold in a large nation increasingly reliant on their mobile phones. Hear from Abraham about the challenges and advantages of operating post-Covid, and what makes him tick.
Mar 19, 202124:50
How the US Treasury yield environment affects USD (Terence Wu)

How the US Treasury yield environment affects USD (Terence Wu)

In this podcast, our FX specialist Terence Wu looks at how the pass-through from the yield environment to the US Dollar is currently very diffused, with different elements pulling the Dollar in different directions. He argues, however, that it is likely to evolve into a net-positive for the US Dollar in the medium term.
Mar 01, 202105:51
Surprised by Singapore’s 4Q20 GDP growth revision? (Selena Ling)

Surprised by Singapore’s 4Q20 GDP growth revision? (Selena Ling)

Does the latest 4Q20 GDP growth estimates change the 2021 growth trajectory or policy outlook? Could it mean a less generous 2021 Budget? Or might we see the MAS recalibrating its monetary policy settings?
Feb 15, 202104:30
Banks - the shock absorbers of 2020 (Andrew Wong)

Banks - the shock absorbers of 2020 (Andrew Wong)

Developments for Financial Institutions in 2020 comprimised a mix of positive and negative influences that enabled banks to become shock absorbers for the global economy. Against a weaker operating environment and higher systemic risk in 2021 are better underlying fundamentals while government support is no longer hypothetical and has addressed both liquidity and solvency risks. Combined with stable and solid capital buffers, we are constructive on better quality credits in the Financial Institutions space and their bank capital instruments for 2021.
Feb 10, 202107:43
The Popularity of Temasek Linked Companies (Ezien Hoo)

The Popularity of Temasek Linked Companies (Ezien Hoo)

What is a Temasek Linked Company and why are they favoured in the SGD bond market? Temasek, a global investor, is the major shareholder of issuers who form a sizeable part of the SGD bond market. However, what constitutes a Temasek Linked Company is more fluid and dependent on interpretation. In this podcast, our credit research analyst Ezien Hoo explains how the team defines this space and highlights the key considerations to look out for when investing in bonds issued by Temasek Linked Companies.
Feb 04, 202107:55
Who's keeping the Singapore property market booming? (Wong Hong Wei)

Who's keeping the Singapore property market booming? (Wong Hong Wei)

Housing prices crashed during the Global Financial Crisis. So why didn't prices collapse in 2020's recession? Our credit research analyst Wong Hong Wei looks at the Crazy Rich who continued to buy properties in the year of the pandemic. Find out where the popular locations are and how much property prices could increase this year.
Jan 25, 202106:46
REITs - Big Gets Bigger (Seow Zhi Qi)

REITs - Big Gets Bigger (Seow Zhi Qi)

Four key trends dominated the REIT market in 2020. The largest REIT was created last year, along with more REITs expanding overseas aggressively. Over the year, we also saw travel restrictions and stay home orders negatively impactingà the various property types. Some of the pain may be brief but for others, it might be trouble to reach an even recovery. Tune in to find out how our credit research analysts view the different property assets.

Jan 22, 202108:34
Commodities outlook 2021 (Howie Lee)

Commodities outlook 2021 (Howie Lee)

This looks like the start of a super commodity cycle. Watch for gold to make new highs once more in 2021.

Jan 13, 202104:27
Outlook for credit 2021 (Andrew Wong)

Outlook for credit 2021 (Andrew Wong)

Although downside risks dominate, we think manageable credit risk in 2021 can enable investors to selectively look for higher yielding credits for returns in a low rate environment, although don’t stray too far away from fundamentals.

Jan 06, 202104:32
Economic outlook for Singapore 2021 (Selena Ling)

Economic outlook for Singapore 2021 (Selena Ling)

For Singapore, an unprecedented recession in 2020 should give way to a return to positive growth in 2021 amid the Covid-19 vaccine rollout and sustained policy support.

Jan 04, 202104:28
FX Outlook 2021 (Terence Wu)

FX Outlook 2021 (Terence Wu)

The USD should remain under negative pressure in early 2021 as the market should still be focusing on positives and retaining a risk-on posture. However, some USD positive drivers are slowly developing under the radar. So watch for potential turning points that may shift attention towards this area and alter the USD trajectory.

Jan 04, 202105:28
Tail Risks 2021

Tail Risks 2021

Vaccine haves and have-nots. Stepping into 2021, let’s take a look at the potential tail risks presented by vaccine development. On the positive end, if we can find more “sweet spot” vaccines that are not just effective but relatively easy to roll out in many developing countries, we would see a great upsurge in consumer and business confidence. On the flip side, if such vaccines are not readily available, a sharp dichotomy between the (vaccinated) rich world and (unvaccinated) others could have tremendous negative implications on market sentiment towards emerging markets in 2021.
Dec 04, 202007:39
The retail landscape in Singapore and Retail REITs (Seow Zhi Qi)

The retail landscape in Singapore and Retail REITs (Seow Zhi Qi)

While we have seen accelerated growth in online sales, it is not end of physical stores in Singapore. Among other things, location is the key factor that can help to cushion downside impacts. In the short term, non-performing tenants would depart, and malls may have to accept negative rental reversion to bring in new tenants. Over the long term, we expect the malls to continue to attract new tenants and to evolve with the times.

Nov 17, 202007:00
Commodities Tuesday: Crude oil may benefit from rotation into value (Howie Lee)

Commodities Tuesday: Crude oil may benefit from rotation into value (Howie Lee)

The rotation of funds from growth to value has begun with the recent breakthroughs in Covid-19 vaccines. Among the commodity space, we see oil benefiting from this rotation due to its relative value.

Nov 17, 202003:09
ENN Energy: A company benefitting from China's transition to a cleaner environment (Ezien Hoo)

ENN Energy: A company benefitting from China's transition to a cleaner environment (Ezien Hoo)

As policies continue to prioritise the development of natural gas as a way for China to reduce its reliance on coal, OCBC Credit Research weighs the merits and risks of investing in this USD bond issuer.

Nov 04, 202005:49
Fast Food Champion of the Philippines (Wong Hong Wei)

Fast Food Champion of the Philippines (Wong Hong Wei)

We focus on Singapore's favourite past-time: Food. Serving Chicken Joy fried chicken, Cheesy Yumburger and Spaghetti laced with sweet sauce, the company which is also the fast food champion of the Philippines has captured the hearts of families, individuals and our credit research analyst alike.

Oct 23, 202003:30
Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)

Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)

Our commodity calls are coming into play quite nicely. Oil appears to be at a critical juncture and looks poised for the next medium-term trend.

Oct 20, 202004:44
Singapore's 3Q GDP (Selena Ling and Terence Wu)

Singapore's 3Q GDP (Selena Ling and Terence Wu)

Our Chief Economist, Selena Ling, and our FX Strategist, Terence Wu, discuss the main takeaways from Singapore's 3Q GDP release and the MAS monetary policy statement.

Oct 14, 202008:52
China removes the 20% risk reserve requirement for purchasing foreign currency via derivatives (Tommy Xie)

China removes the 20% risk reserve requirement for purchasing foreign currency via derivatives (Tommy Xie)

What does this mean? What's the rational behind that? What's the possible implication on RMB? In this podcast, we will try to answer those questions.

Oct 12, 202004:27
Commodities Tuesdays (Howie Lee)

Commodities Tuesdays (Howie Lee)

Bullish agriculture, neutral crude oil and bearish industrial metals. Find out why in this week's edition of Commodities Tuesdays.

Oct 06, 202003:44
3 burning questions about Singapore (Selena Ling)

3 burning questions about Singapore (Selena Ling)

In this podcast, our chief economist, Selena Ling, discusses the Singapore property market, what the transition to Phase 3 will mean for GDP growth, and the upcoming MAS monetary policy meeting.

Oct 02, 202005:11
Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)

Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)

Why Libya’s production resumption tilts the oil market, and why we think metals will continue to face downward pressure.

Sep 29, 202003:28
Non-traditional REITs (Ezien Hoo)

Non-traditional REITs (Ezien Hoo)

These REITs capitalise on opportunities but for whose benefit and at whose expense? Tune in to find out more.

Sep 24, 202007:56
Under pressure (Howie Lee)

Under pressure (Howie Lee)

With the building risk-off momentum, we think energy and industrial metals are under pressure.

Sep 22, 202003:28
RMB - still room to strengthen (Terence Wu)

RMB - still room to strengthen (Terence Wu)

In this podcast, we touch on the developments on the Sino-US front and the on-track macro recovery in China as positives for the RMB. Further details and other positives, such as a seeming shift in official stance towards the RMB and yield differentials, are covered in our recently published FX Viewpoint - RMB: Still room to strengthen, available on our research website.

Sep 22, 202006:47
Staycation Salvation: Can domestic travellers save ASEAN tourism? (Wellian Wiranto)

Staycation Salvation: Can domestic travellers save ASEAN tourism? (Wellian Wiranto)

Given the imposition of cross border travel restrictions, the tourism industry across ASEAN countries has suffered a tremendous hit. Into the void comes the idea that domestic travellers, who cannot venture abroad, may offer some salvation in the meantime, bolstered by government stimulus incentives. We examine the potential for such help in a few countries here.

Sep 16, 202008:23
Hospitality issuers – credit outlook (Ezien Hoo)

Hospitality issuers – credit outlook (Ezien Hoo)

In March and April, we lowered the issuer profile of hospitality issuers under our coverage as international borders started closing, along with dampening travel demand. Five months on, how have SGD hospitality bond issuers fared? In this podcast, our credit research analyst, Ezien Hoo, discusses the opportunity and risks within this SGD bond sector.

Sep 15, 202007:51
Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)

Commodities Tuesday (Howie Lee)

Energy, base metals, agriculture - that is how we rank our bullishness among the sub sectors, in ascending order. Listen to find out more!

Sep 15, 202003:17
A Biden administration may not be as USD-negative as you think (Terence Wu)

A Biden administration may not be as USD-negative as you think (Terence Wu)

We are often led to believe that a Republican president will be USD-positive due to the perception that the president will more likely bring US macro outperformance. Historically, we find no systematic relationship between the USD performance and the winning president's party. Instead, we should consider whether a Trump or a Biden administration is better placed to address the current USD-negative drivers. Taking this approach suggests that a Biden administration may not be as USD-negative in the near term as you may believe.

Sep 11, 202007:21
Commodities update: What's performing and what's sagging? (Howie Lee)

Commodities update: What's performing and what's sagging? (Howie Lee)

Metals continue their run up, while energy sagged on a series of negative news. Agriculture looks like it may be the next outperformer.

Sep 08, 202003:10
A grimmer 2020, but brighter days ahead in 2021? (Selena Ling)

A grimmer 2020, but brighter days ahead in 2021? (Selena Ling)

The latest MAS survey of professional forecasters (SPF) shared some interesting insights, namely the worst is likely over, but the Singapore economy will still see a severe 2020 recession with GDP growth likely to shrink 6% yoy. However, there may be a sharp growth bounce of 5.5% in 2021, notwithstanding the familiar risks of an escalation in the Covid-19 pandemic and US-China tensions. Consequently, the mild disinflationary environment should subside and revert to positive inflation prints next year. The policy implication is that MAS is likely to be static at the upcoming monetary policy review in October.

Sep 08, 202004:58
Clarity on interest rate outlook and a solid end to the month for credit (Andrew Wong)

Clarity on interest rate outlook and a solid end to the month for credit (Andrew Wong)

OCBC Bank Credit Analyst Andrew Wong shares in this podcast recent developments in the credit market and the interest rate outlook. He expects credit market activity to remain brisk in September and that issuers will begin to have better clarity on their performance for 2020 as we enter the final month of 3Q2020. Check out the monthly credit view on the OCBC website for further information on bond level recommendation changes.

Sep 04, 202006:58
Fed’s average inflation target and a K-shape recovery? (Selena Ling)

Fed’s average inflation target and a K-shape recovery? (Selena Ling)

Fed chair Powell has articulated a shift to an average inflation target of 2%. This has given the green light to the risk rally. But the market is also concerned about prospects of a K-shaped recovery. What does this mean for the Singapore economy? Tune in and find out!

Sep 03, 202004:56
Commodities bull run fuelled by China’s buying (Howie Lee)

Commodities bull run fuelled by China’s buying (Howie Lee)

China’s buying of energy, industrial metals and agriculture commodities continues, keeping prices supported across the spectrum.

Sep 01, 202002:58
US-China tension: New parameters. New reaction. (Tommy Xie)

US-China tension: New parameters. New reaction. (Tommy Xie)

What are the new parameters adding to the current US-China tension? Is this time different? Reasons why we think China may not go down the path of tit-for-tat despite the significant escalation of the tension. This could be the relief the global financial market needs.

Aug 31, 202003:26
Keppel Corp: Status quo for now (Ezien Hoo)

Keppel Corp: Status quo for now (Ezien Hoo)

We are maintaining our issuer profile on Keppel despite its credit metric deterioration and single largest shareholder walking away from the pre-conditional partial takeover offer. Despite equity markets reacting negatively to the developments, reaction on Keppel's bonds has been far more muted.

Aug 14, 202005:10
Singapore's 2Q20 GDP growth: Revised lower, but worst is likely over (Selena Ling)

Singapore's 2Q20 GDP growth: Revised lower, but worst is likely over (Selena Ling)

Singapore's 2Q20 GDP growth was revised to -13.2% year-on-year, down from initial flash estimates of -12.6% year-on-year. While manufacturing, construction and the services sectors have taken a big hit, there's a silver lining in the finance and insurance sector which still saw positive growth of 3.4% year-on-year, despite it being half of the 8.3% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2020. With escalating US-China tensions, and the long-tail nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, Singapore's GDP growth may continue to contract, albeit by a milder 7.5% and 1.5% year-on-year in the third and fourth quarters of this year respectively.

Aug 12, 202005:31
Investors continue search for yield (Andrew Wong)

Investors continue search for yield (Andrew Wong)

OCBC Credit Research recently published its monthly credit view for August with some interesting trends in the US, Asia dollar and SGD space. In all, the technical environment remains strong but the team remains cautious on the fundamental outlook. Investors however are continuing to search for yield and this could drive demand back to structural high yield instruments. Activity in the SGD space has firmed up with the total number of bond level recommendation changes falling. With swap rates lower m/m, we still see value with 19 bond level recommendations raised and 13 lowered. Please check out our monthly credit view on the OCBC website for further information on these bond level recommendation changes.

Aug 06, 202005:32
Superpower Showdown - Who's got the better handle on Covid-19?

Superpower Showdown - Who's got the better handle on Covid-19?

Tensions between the US and China have hit an all-time high. What's brewing between the world's superpowers? Our economists, Wellian Wiranto and Tommy Xie, break down how the two largest economies in the world have been dealing with the political fallout, the Covid-19 pandemic, and what lies ahead as the fate of their economies hang in the balance.

Jul 29, 202030:10
Dollar cost averaging and why it's beneficial for investors (Vasu Menon)

Dollar cost averaging and why it's beneficial for investors (Vasu Menon)

With markets so volatile, should investors be investing now or waiting for blue skies? Our Executive Director of Investment Strategy, Vasu Menon, advises investors to stay invested using a dollar cost averaging strategy, instead of trying to time the markets or bottom-fishing investments. This can benefit investors by lowering the average cost per share of an investment, and is a good and systematic way of investing in the markets during times of uncertainty. This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2020.

Jul 28, 202002:14