Bald Man 🧑‍🦲 $peculating 💸

For most of my 30+ year investing career there was a set pattern of how people got their narrative on stocks and money. But now, with social media, the world has changed. Narratives, preferences, moods are set in a different way and it means that markets will swing and swish in new ways. In this podcast I lay out 3 critical shifts - change in role of indices, change in what media people are paying attention to and a new, massive large cohort of investors (15%) who have just entered the market. Its allergy season in North Carolina and so I had to cough a few times. Apologies in advance.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Most new, individual, retail investors buy and hold on to stocks at highs. This happened in 1999/2000 and in my opinion it's happening again now. That's because regular investors get invested in the psychology of seeing "gains." However prices reflect assets. And in this podcast I lay out why many investors are set to repeat the mistake of the 1999/2000 stock market bubble.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Interest rates are to financial market as gravity is to physics. There's no escaping them. Yet, two years after the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the fastest pace in history, many asset markets are at all time highs. Has something changed? In this BMS podcast I layout what I believe is going on. And where things are headed in 2024.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Markets always shift in unexpected directions. After 20 years of domination by computer based technology, few are expecting this. What's this? That the new bull market that's unfolding is going to have a new leader - biotechnology, genetic, digital medicine. In this podcast I layout this idea - why, how, what.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Bitcoin is set to have a first spot ETF approved this week per news reports. In this podcast, I lay out how, what, why of this and what it means for the Bitcoin and asset markets across the board.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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In hindsight it's now clear what happened in 2023. And that sets things up for 2024. In this podcast, I go into what I believe set up the crazy, wild markets in 2023 and what it means for the investments I focus on (growth, innovation, crypto) in 2024.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Stunner: Interest rates are suddenly heading lower again. In this podcast I lay out what I think is going - the first period of declining interest rates in rising rate cycle. Then I layout why the assets/investments I focus are setting up for a great period after nearly 3 terrible years.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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So many calls for an AI boom in the stock market? Is this for real or is it hype? If it's real, where will you find the big AI market winners? In this podcast, I go into this topic and give you my perspective on it.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Bull markets are never the same. There are major changes to what investors are buying and bidding up in this new bull market. In this podcast I lay out what these are and how you can use them.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Its a new era for investing because of higher interest rates. If that's right betting on investments based on rates going lower is over. And the new bull market as it forms is going to be about sustainable (self funded i.e. not needing money from investors) and persistent growth. In this podcast I layout the new opportunity set for the coming bull market in these kinds of assets.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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In this episode, I lay out why I believe interest rates are like to sit still (in a range around current levels) for a LONG time, like 7 - 10 years. I base this on the last UP interest rate cycle that ran from 1940 - 1980. Listen to my podcast as I make my case for this scenario and what will happen with certain stocks and crypto.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Last episode I talked about what a bull market in a era of higher interest rates and inflation look like. In this podcast I go even deeper into this topic laying out how buyers (remember that prices only rise with buying) buy in different segments of the market like value and growth. And then I lay out using an example, why its very easy to make a clear buy case for many growth stocks right now.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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What does a bull market in a era of higher interest rates and inflation look like? In this podcast I layout my reasoning for a shocking and stunning bull market for growth, innovation and small companies.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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A new era just launched. It's the higher (interest rates) for longer era. Its another way of saying that the interest rate cycle has turned. The old cycle saw interest rates go down, slowly, suddenly, swinging up and down for over 40 years. And the next cycle will see rates rise, slowly, suddenly, swing up and down but in a upward trend for some time. In this podcast, I lay out this scenario and how & what a bull market in the higher for longer era is going to be about.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Interest rates both short and long term are hitting multi-decade highs. Inflation is staying higher than 2%. How did we get here? Where are we going? What do you invest in in this environment?

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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It's tempting to want to draw straight line conclusions. For example, today it's easy to imagine that interest rates are destined to only keep rising. Or that economies can't grow after interest rates have risen from low levels. History says otherwise. Then, there's innovation and its effect on our economies and societies. We went through a period of rapid adoption of innovation in 2020/2021 and then a slowdown. History says that this pattern is normal. And that another period of acceleration is coming soon. In this podcast I make my case for both of these contentions.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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It's a new era now of high interest rates, lowish inflation and wildly fluctuating growth conditions that suggest a recession one quarter, a boom the next. In this podcast I layout the features of this new era and how to think about investing as this period of change, uncertainty unfold.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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AI fever or hype (depending on your view) is everywhere in the stock market. It's most visible in the movements of Nvidia $NVDA stock that has rocketed from about $100 last year to $500 recently. In this podcast, I discuss AI and put it in some historical context relative to other innovations and then present my case on Nvidia and its stock.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Something unusual is going on. By any standard in history, asset prices should be far lower given how high and fast interest rates have risen. In this podcast, I talk about this and go through some of the reasons, rationales and potential explanations. But, maybe there is something different going on that is not captured in current data/analysis because we've not seen something like this in recent history before.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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The pre Covid world is not coming back. Instead we have a new world that is defined by what I call a "uncomfortably comfortable equilibrium" (UCE). This UCE has three legs that I believe are going to be the platform for what happens with everything from the economy to asset prices.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Carl Icahn's company Icahn Enterprise Partners (Symbol: IEP) cut its dividend from $2 to $1 last week. In this podcast I layout how Icahn ended up in the position of having to cut its dividend and lay out why this might mark the beginning of the end of the extraordinary boom in dividend stocks.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Bill Ackman in a long post on X (previously Twitter) revealed that he's betting on long term interest rates going higher from 4% to 5.5%. In this podcast, I look at Ackman's bet and contrast that to what Cathie Wood & I think about interest rates.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Fitch, a credit rating firm downgraded US debt today. That was a surprise. Looking at what happened after this was announced suggests that Bitcoin is about go on a run along with Defi tokens. In this podcast I explain why I believe this.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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2021 & 2022 were some of the worst conditions for growth innovation investments as macro conditions and plausible risk scenarios caused investors to sell, short and trash them lower. But today, things have taken a 180 turn. Growth/innovation including in my opinion are setting up for the best performance in years and in this podcast I lay out why.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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3 events point to our current fiat/Fed financial system coming undone and being replaced by Bitcoin, crypto/defi & fintech (BCDF).

In this podcast I lay out the events which are set for May, July and August. Then I explain why/how these events have the capability to complete undo our current financial system and cause a digital turnover to one based on BCDF.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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As expected the bank run crisis is continuing. And now with First Republic bank set to be taken over, we're going to see an acceleration and expansion of this crisis. An acceleration into more small, medium and regional banks and an expansion into insurance companies. In this podcast I lay out what is going on and what I believe is setting up to unfold in the coming weeks and months.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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A massive shift is about to happen in our economy. And the bank run crisis is a signal telling you that this is about to set off once in a 100 year changes in our economy and the world.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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In the last episode of this series I laid out my reasoning for why the bank run crisis is in its early stages. Then I told you that the underlying conditions for our banking/financial system have fundamentally changed and that's the true and real cause for why this is happening now. And in this episode I tell you about something that is set to happen later in July of this year that could trigger a complete change in the system. An epochal shift in how our financial system operates.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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People always imagine that change is going to be gradual, slow and where there will be plenty of time to react. The reality is that change often happens suddenly and rapidly. In 2020, the world's population went to working from home all at once. We shut down the entire world's productive capacity. All at once. In this episode I lay out why something similar is setting up to happen to the financial system and that the bank run crisis unfolding right now is the trigger for this to happen now.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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The bank run crisis is unfolding in real time right now. In this podcast, I explain what the underlying reason for it happening right now is. Why I believe it's going to keep going until our financial system is dramatically reshaped by the adoption of a new system underpinned by crypto and fintech companies.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Most information about stocks or any asset price is about value. For example, how to value a company. You can find libraries full of books about this. Yet, when it comes to information about how prices get set -- there is very little. In this podcast I lay out two ways that you can easily understand - events and games - that determine prices daily. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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I recently got my kids to start investing. And immediately I noticed a big difference in how my son and daughter engaged in it. In this podcast I lay out why the increasing participation of women into the world of investing is likely to change markets and how we go about investing -- particularly in terms of time frames.

Here's the link to the blog  that I reference: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/02/buy-hold-is-dead-long-live-buy-hold/

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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It's remarkable that ALL growth stocks got crushed in 2002. And ALL crypto did the same. That does not JUST happen. Nothing that big, that vast, that intense lasting 1 year, and representing trillions of dollars of value is just accidental or by coincidence.

In this podcast, I lay out part 2 of my "conspiracy" theory on what happens next in my opinion.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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It's remarkable that ALL growth stocks got crushed in 2002. And ALL crypto did the same. That does not JUST happen. Nothing that big, that vast, that intense lasting 1 year, and representing trillions of dollars of value is just accidental or by coincidence.

In this podcast, I lay out my "conspiracy" theory on why this happened in my opinion. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Did you know that interest rates for even the highest rated companies (blue chips) have doubled over the last 2 years? That means companies that have lots of debt face huge jumps in what they owe for interest. In this podcast, I unpack by why you'll never hear about this risk from Wall Street until it's too late. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Financial media is always focused on the business of a stock. However, most of the movements, fluctuations and variability of a stock is driven by something that only Wall Street has access to -- buying and selling decisions of big money -- companies, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. 

In this podcast I lay out this kind of information and why you'll never hear about this from Wall Street or the media. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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There is one similarity to 2008/2009 & Global Financial Crisis to now that no one is talking about. Remember what was the consensus/majority view of the time? That the US would struggle and that developing markets led by China were going to outperform. That was completely wrong. What happened was the opposite and there is something similar unfolding now in markets.

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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The debt ceiling. Some folks are spinning this as a potential catastrophe. In this podcast I lay out a different scenario. And I tell you how in this scenario various stocks, commodities, currencies, assets will actually benefit from what is going on. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment.

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Southwest Airlines shut down for nearly 4 days. 2000 Flights cancelled. Thousands of passengers stranded. Estimated cost $1 bill. But, there's a bigger problem behind what caused Southwest's problems. And it's an issue for the vast majority of companies in the S&P 500. In this podcast I go into the rapidly rising risk of "tech debt" and how it's a hidden problem that no one is focused on right now. But has massive implications for "legacy" stocks and for OGI (opportunity, growth, innovation) stocks in 2023 and beyond. 

I want to make clear that this podcast is opinion, information, engagement, entertainment not investment advice. Nothing in this podcast is intended to make you buy/sell or transact in any stock or investment. 

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In part 5, the last episode in this series, I go into why crypto represents a critical part of what will benefit from this new world that is unfolding right now. That's because it is new and no one is invested in it, so it would benefit from a large movement away from current systems. Then, I also lay out why Japan and the Dollar's reserve status are two critical parts of the puzzle that are the trigger points for what is unfolding. 

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In part 4 of this series, I go into the risks that are created in this new world that is unfolding right now. You'll hear how certain companies and countries are going to be in the path of harm particularly if they lack access to innovation and depend on low interest rates, systemic inflation, and off shore manufacturing.

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In part 3 of this series, I go into the opportunities that are created in this new world that is unfolding right now. You'll hear how innovation is the clear, big winner along with small companies and then countries that have a favorable demographic profile.

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A big event happened yesterday. But it's true meaning is only going to be understood in hindsight. This event happened in Japan with their central bank changing their policy on how interest rates are going to be set. In part 2 of this series, I lay out what I believe is going to unfold with interest rates, inflation, dividends & buybacks and also how innovation stocks play into it. 

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A big event happened yesterday. But it's true meaning is only going to be understood in hindsight. This event happened in Japan with their central bank changing their policy on how interest rates are going to be set. In part 1 of this podcast I tell you about this event, lay out the backstory for why it matters and set you up for more about how this is going to change the world of investing for the next coming decades. 

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Why do some stock prices go up? Why suddenly in one year can a Tesla rise hundreds of percent when to folks who are following it, it seems like nothing really changed. Investment experts will say it's because the market is now "discounting" X, Y and Z. What's this discounting? How does it happen? Who does it? 

In this podcast I explain the mystery of discounting and what it is and how it unfolds and who does it. 

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People are highly focused on inflation, because it reduces the value of money. But what happens when you have deflation? 

In this podcast I show you how inflation and deflation changes the value of your investments and lay out why growth investments in stock and crypto can surge higher. 

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In 2008, the global financiers were peddling new, unknown, crazy levered up securities like they were savings accounts. But no one questioned because they were supposed to be the smartest people in the world. 

In 2022, everyone is in search of the next BIG financial crisis that's going to crash the world. There's just one thing wrong with this. 

You see, the next big crisis is unlikely to come where people are looking. In this podcast, I lay out how you have to think to figure out where the next big crisis is going to come from and why the last one will not point you to the next one. 

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The volatility in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was earth shattering. And so, of course Wall Street found a way to create products to sate that problem, which turned into a bubble for assets that don't trade regularly. 

In this podcast I tell you about this bubble, why it's setting up to pop soon and how it's one more piece of the puzzle that is going to act in our favor. 

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Most investors are highly focused on one thing -- making money right now. However, the most successful investors are focused on something else which is far more important and is what really matters.

In this podcast I lay out a 3 part checklist that every successful investor uses and thinks about before making an investment of any kind - stock, crypto, real estate, any thing. 

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Crypto contagion! Some people say take your crypto off exchanges. Others say not your keys not your crypto. Rumors, innuendo are everywhere about Coinbase, Binance and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

In today's podcast I tell you where I keep my crypto and why. I also give you my view on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust - GBTC. On the soundness of Coinbase vs Binance. The risks of leaving crypto on exchanges vs risks of holding crypto in a hard wallet. 

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