RoozCast

The US and Iran go to war Today! ... on a football pitch. The two sides meet in their last first-round game of the Qatar World Cup, and whoever wins will almost certainly advance to the knockout stage — a first for Iran. But this time, the long-running geopolitical tensions between the two bitter enemies have taken a back seat to the ongoing women-led protests against the government in Iran, the biggest the country has seen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. 

If you tour Doha, the capital of Qatar, the men's football World Cup is all around. There's a FIFA installation every few meters, flags and soccer balls line the pavements, and the streets shine bright with Qatar 2022-branded lights. But none of this matters because Qatar hosts a big party for wealthy Arabs. Most have flown in from neighboring countries to experience a once-in-a-lifetime event. Dressed in team colors complete with face paint, drums, and other swag, the energy of the wealthy Arabs can perhaps outdo any Western country. Since money is no object, post-match celebrations go on well into the wee hours of the morning.

Saudi Arabia's incredible victory over Argentina on Tuesday was one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history. The game made the entire Kingdom proud — and sent long-awaited ripples of soccer joy throughout the Arab world. 

Since it invaded Ukraine, Russia hasn't just been making enemies and losing friends. Some Central Asian countries – considered part of Russia's backyard thanks to their Soviet heritage – have begun distancing themselves from Moscow.  Astana wants to diversify its trade and diplomacy. Still, the country's proximity to Russia – compounded by political, cultural, and economic ties – means Kazakhstan will struggle to escape Russia's sphere of influence entirely.

This Sunday-  just two days from today - is the day half the world has eagerly awaited for four years. The men's football or soccer (for my American Audience) World Cup — the most-watched event of the most popular sport on the planet — kicks off in, of all places, Qatar. For one thing, it's not the first time a World Cup host has had a dodgy human rights record. After all, Argentina won its first trophy at home in 1978 while the country was run by a fearsome military junta. For another, the political stuff usually stops when the ball starts rolling. Once the game is underway, most fans' attention will switch quickly from human rights to the human magic expected from the feet of megastars like Leo Messi, Kylian Mbappé, or Neymar. (We'd mention Cristiano Ronaldo too, but he's in a  bit of a slump these days.) The smart money seems to be on Argentina and Brazil, but there are plenty of underdogs — hello, Senegal — with a shot at going all the way.

Despite lowering the anticipated “Red Wave” to a mere trickle in the midterms last week, he’s running. Despite an upcoming Georgia Senate runoff that hangs in the balance, Mr. Trump is actually running. Trouble is brewing within the GOP itself. Trump might be too toxic to win a general election himself now, but without his voters, no Republican stands a chance in 2024. His presence threatens a crack in the republican party whereby a bunch of Republican voters who are needed to win in a general election take their ball and go home if Trump isn't the guy. So the problem the Republicans face is that they can't win with Trump and can't win without him.

Today, US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping are having their first face-to-face meeting since Joe Biden was elected in 2020. Since they last met in 2011, when both were vice presidents, tensions between Washington and Beijing have only escalated. Stabilizing the world’s most important bilateral relationship is essential to China, the US, and the rest of the world. Checks and balances limit Biden's executive powers to deal with Xi’s China. The same can't be said for President Xi.

As we are closing the week, the big news is happening on the economic and political fronts around the world.  The American economy got some good news yesterday: Monthly inflation in October dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% in September, and is now at its lowest since January 2022. The crypto market's really poor run got even worse this week after FTX, a major crypto exchange, imploded - big time.... added by billionaire crypto-star Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX was revealed to be in a bad financial position earlier this week, and Binance, the largest exchange, and an FTX competitor considered bailing FTX out, but dropped the idea at the eleventh hour when it became clear FTX was insolvent, and its customers couldn't withdraw assets.  Last but not least,  President Joe Biden, meanwhile, will be on-site in Bali for G20, where he plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday for their first in-person chat since Biden moved into the White House. But don't expect significant results for the meeting.

The world is suffering from uncomfortably high inflation as economies adjust to the troubles brought by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and all other crazy stuff happening around the world, but several countries are dealing with double- or triple-digit price increases or inflation. In Argentina, for example, a rapid acceleration of price gains in recent months has many economists predicting inflation will reach 100% this year and next year.

Midterm elections are always a referendum on incumbency, as demonstrated by the fact that the party in control of the White House has lost Congressional seats in 36 out of 39 midterm races since the Civil War. It’s nearly impossible to satisfy voters – particularly those caught in a painful spiral of inflation and recession worries – by advocating for the status quo. That’s the challenge for Democrats: trying to defend their own track record while simultaneously recognizing what remains to be done.  Economic turmoil has forever been a toxic agent that gives the underdog (Republicans in this Midterm) an abundance of ammunition to oust the incumbent party. If Democrats lose big on Tuesday, paving the way for a slate of GOP newcomers, it will be a significant gift to Donald Trump as he looks ready to announce a run for the White House in 2024.

Let's start the week with three questions.  

Will US Voters show up on Tuesday?

Will wealthy countries compensate or pay poor ones for climate change?

What is going on with Elon Musk and Twitter?

Most Americans already have firm views of the Republican and Democratic parties, and their midterm votes have been set in stone for some time. In close races, however, the difference will be decided by whether the politically indifferent demographic chooses to vote. 

On COP27, rising inflation has forced governments to cut back on fossil fuels, making the International Energy Agency optimistic that COP27 might be a "turning point" in the global transition to clean energy.

And there is a possibility that Elon Musk might have a shorter tenure than former British PM Liz Truss. Also, for Russia, buying a few thousand verified Twitter accounts at $8/pop to promote disinformation feels like a no-brainer."

Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan — aka "Kaptaan" for his cricket awards and lead-from-the-front style of populist politics — survived an assassination attempt on Thursday during his "Long March" to Islamabad. Mr. Khan, who was removed from office last April, has been demanding snap elections, but he's been ignored so far. Despite his party-sweeping by-elections, mass rallies, and his summoning of exceptional support against the military, the political establishment hasn't blinked. Will this attack force their hand?   On another topic, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a very controversial trip to Beijing on Friday as the first prominent European leader to visit China since Russia invaded Ukraine. It was a swift one – Scholz's team didn't even spend the night in Beijing due to China's zero-COVID policy. For the leader of the EU's largest economy (that's Germany), the trip is all about business (people), which explains why top German CEOs accompanied Mr. Scholz. But for the rest of Europe, going to Beijing right after Xi Jinping's coronation at the 20th Congress of China's ruling Communist Party sends the wrong political message right when Brussels wants to reduce its economic and trade dependence on China — like it's done with Russian fossil fuels over Ukraine.

Last but not least, In the final stretch of the midterm race, Democrats and Republicans are pushing hard in Pennsylvania. On the blue side, President Joe Biden and his old boss Barack Obama will hold an event in Philadelphia on Saturday (Today) to get out the vote due to fears that turnout could lag, particularly among communities of color. Meanwhile, on team red, former President Donald Trump will also stop in southwest Pennsylvania over the weekend to campaign for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and state Senator Doug Mastriano, trailing Democrat Josh Shapiro in the race for governor.

American voters are getting ready for the mid-term elections. President Biden blamed former President Donald Trump's "big lie" about the 2020 election being stolen and called out the violent attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul. In response to the speech, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tweeted that the President was "desperate to change the subject from inflation, crime, and open borders."  We'll find out exactly what Americans think after next Tuesday. In recent years views on court bias and whether it plays an outsized role in politics reached fever-pitch for many this summer with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a move disapproved by 57% of Americans. While Republicans seem to have understood these dynamics for some time, Democrats have caught up with the trend in recent years. In the 2019-2020 election cycle, a collective $97million was spent on state court races nationwide. This cycle, parties are investing heavily in partisan judicial races in Ohio, Illinois, and North Carolina. With an increased number of election deniers on Republican ballots, debates over the nature of American democracy will gain steam over the next few years – and those battles will be waged in state courts. Prepare to see a lot more money enter state judicial races. So buckle up!

Bad news in Asia. China’s manufacturing sector is in a tailspin this week after several enormous production lines were shut down due to the country’s restrictive zero-COVID policy.   North Korea released its largest-ever, one-day flurry of missiles on Wednesday, firing 23 ballistics into the sea. Why? Supreme leader Kim Jong Un detests being forgotten. To get attention! Some good news in Europe and Africa. Russia has (again) reversed itself on a deal allowing Ukrainian food exports to cross the Black Sea toward international markets, this time by reaffirming its support for safe passage. The government of Ethiopia and rebels from the Tigray region agreed on Wednesday to “permanently” end their civil war.

We are Back! 

In this episode of RoozCast, we will examine the recent lunch date between Venezuela and Columbia. We then move to Israel to see what Bibi Netanyahu is doing, and he is getting closer to political victory.  We then move to another tense spot, Saudi Arabia, which is being threatened by Iran.  Last but not least, we moved to Brazil, where the country held its presidential election, and Mr. Balsenaro had some hard choices. 

In this episode, I discuss how India is dealing with the second-highest confirmed COVID cases in the world.  India is competing with China in its vaccine diplomacy and struggling to protect a sizable portion of its 1.4 billion population. 

Could China succeed where other outsiders (British, Russian, and American) have lost – and without a costly and dangerous military occupation? Is the hope of profitable trade and investment enough to guarantee a power-sharing deal among Afghanistan's fighting factions?  Over the years, China's rulers have seen other major powers stuck in Afghanistan without an exit strategy. Those are mistakes no one in Beijing is keen to repeat.

The most ambitious global immunization drive in history is in action. Over the past three months, more than 250 million COVID shots have been administered in over 100 countries, and the vaccination rate is gradually increasing. At the current rate, around 6.3 million doses are being administered daily. It's a rare moment of good news after over a year of collective suffering, grief, despair, and anxiety. So where do things stand, and what's preventing the world from getting to herd immunity sooner?

It's not just about that vacation you've been dreaming of since the pandemic shut down travel. Many organizations, institutions, and employers could begin requiring proof of vaccination before they hire you — or even to let you in the office for an interview.  Are vaccine passports a good idea? People, governments, and businesses need to know who might set off a new COVID wave and who is safe. But are we moving toward a  New World where the holders of vaccine passports become an unjustly privileged class of people?

Donal Trump continues to be a powerful political force. Even in defeat, he won 74 million votes for president last year, the second-highest total of any candidate in US history.  In this episode, I discuss the future of the GOP.  What does this mean for the party? The GOP has plunged into an all-out civil war that will rage for years to come.  

The US president's priorities may be COVID, economic recovery, climate change, and China, but the Middle East problems are still following him — and the US is deeply involved in the region, whether President Biden likes it or not. In this episode, I discuss Biden's priorities in the Middle East.

Lots of news coming out of Russia these days... But just who is Alexei Navalny, and how important is the threat that he may pose to Vladimir Putin's power in Russia?  In this episode of RoozCast I discuss the story of Alexei Navalny in Today's Russia.

What should Europe do with Washington and Beijing? Double down on strengthening traditional transatlantic relations in hopes of containing China's growing power to set new trade and technology rules, and to bolster support for "Western values" of human rights and individual liberty Engage both newly dysfunctional Washington and ever-more-assertive Beijing? Strengthen Europe's strategic independence from the US and China?  In this episode of RoozCast, I discuss Europe's big political decision.

In this episode, I discuss Bolivia's election and the challenges faced by newly elected president Luis Arce in governing all Bolivians in a country deeply polarized along political, economic, and racial lines.

In this episode, I discuss Donald Trump's "America First" foreign policy in the context of trade, conflicts, and international treaties.   Has the president delivered?  

In this episode, I discuss the central question of international trade and Biden's strategy.  I explain how Joe Biden won't move to lower the Trump tariffs immediately or without some concession from Beijing.  Escalation of the trade war seems unlikely as Biden attempts to put the frequently combative US-China relationship on a more useful path.

In this episode, I discuss how the US and China are moving into an increasingly zero-sum competition over technologies like 5G and artificial intelligence, in which the big tech companies are major players. If this turns into a 21st-century tech cold war in which tech companies on either side of the Pacific are the main combatants, US companies will be facing off against Chinese rivals (like, Alibaba and Huawei that have the solid support of the Chinese government, and face few antitrust limitations of their own.

In this episode I discuss, A new survey from the Pew Research Center offering interesting responses to this newest phase of China's rise. This report is based on interviews conducted in nine European countries plus the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

In this episode, I look at the heated dispute between Greece and Turkey over who controls what water in the Eastern Mediterranea.  I also discuss what have Greeks and Turks been arguing about all summer and why it matters.

In this episode, I look at the state of German reunification thirty years later.    The reunification has - to a large extend - been difficult to pull off.  The Economic and quality of life gap is shrinking, but lingering inequality continues to impact both German society and its politics. 

In this episode, I look at Trump's highest-profile fans - in ideological support or specific policies and who won't be happy if he loses in November.  

In this episode, I will be looking at why the US Senate race matters.  The 100 member body is currently held by the Republican Party but many individual Senate races are wide open.  The results will have a profound impact on only on America but also on US foreign policy and other major issues with global impact.    I will look at just a few areas such as immigration, trade, arms deals, and climate change.  

In this episode, we'll be taking a closer look at AI and Regulations or I better be saying "regulating AI".

The drumbeat for regulating artificial intelligence (AI) is growing louder Not just in the United States and Europe but also elsewhere around the world. Earlier this month, Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google's parent company, Alphabet, became the latest super high-profile Silicon Valley figure to call for governments to put guardrails around technologies that use huge amounts of (oftentimes personal) data to teach computers how to identify faces, make decisions about mortgage applications, and so many other tasks that previously relied on us - yes! human brainpower. 

A potentially deadly new coronavirus that can be transmitted from one person to another is now spreading across China. This new deadly virus is big news and very very serious.  Complicating containment efforts, millions of people are on the move across the country this week to celebrate the Chinese New Year with family and friends, adding to more fears about the spreading of the virus.   But this is not just a Chinese problem.

Almost two years after Donald Trump began its trade war against China, President Trump and Chinese Vice-Premier signed a deal in Washington. The full details are still not clear, but in this episode, I discuss the so-called  "Phase One" deal between the world's two most influential economies is expected to include, despite inevitable disagreements between the US and China about how the deal should be implemented and enforced,

In this episode, I review the most important events in the region and discuss the role of China and Russia in the region in 2020.

In this episode, I discuss the recent EU report about the “lost generation”.   And how the report waruns of a potential “lost generation” of migrants, people who enter Europe to build better lives but then find little chance of integrating into society. 

The destiny of Donald Trump will likely remain in the hands of American voters, not their elected officials. And the result of the next election is still more likely to be defined by the Democrats' choice of a presidential candidate, the state of the US economy in 2020, and the enthusiasm that each side's voters feel about the election than by anything now happening in congressional hearing rooms.

The world has changed since the fall of the Berlin Wall.  It's a world that is much more wealthy and free than it was before the wall fell, but it's also a world where nationalism is growing, a new global competition is emerging between the US and China, and freedom is frailer than we thought thirty years ago.

Latin America's longest-serving president is now out and seeking asylum in Mexico.  Bolivia's passionate leftwing President Evo Morales quit, after weeks of frequently intense protests over his plausible bid to rig last month's presidential elections.

In this episode, I discuss Google's Quantum Computing breakthrough and what it means for the future of geopolitics.

All over the world, people are hitting the streets to demand changes from their governments. But one region where dissatisfaction with current leaders seems particularly widespread at the moment is Latin America. 

It's just over 12 months until the US presidential election.  November of 2020.  Yes, Mr. Trump has been the president of the United States and the Commander of Chief for almost three years.  So, how are we feeling? Well, maybe just a bit on edge? Good, because against a tense geopolitical backdrop, and with an impeachment drama playing out in the House of Representatives - as we are recording this podcasts, a series of recent headlines have left me - as of again, recording of this podcast, concerned that we could be heading for a perfect storm…of election interference and other cyber troubles.

In this episode we look at how Syria is quickly turning into US President Donald Trump's most important foreign policy mistake to date and we are almost three years into his presidency and a year away from the presidential election. It's looking like it might be for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, too.  Yes, a big foreign policy error.

I was a very busy week in Washington.  What happened?  The impeachment of President Trump has now begun. Investigators will now try to determine whether Mr. Trump attempted to pressure Ukraine's president into providing damaging information on former US vice president (and current presidential candidate) Joe Biden and his son Hunter in order to help Trump win the 2020 election.

In this episode, I discuss the growing friction between governments and big tech companies on the issue of digital currency.

Trump's firing his national security advisor John Bolton is big news in Washington.  What does it really mean for US Foreign Policy and Donald Trump's election campaign for November of 2020?