🤔Could this be the end of ‘holding off offers’? I chatted with a few different brokers this week and the comments are all the same that they have had multiple properties that they have held out offers for and on offer date they got crickets. I still believe there is an overwhelming demand for ‘fall-in-love’ properties as opposed to ‘fall-in-like’ properties. We will still see bidding wars, but be cautious about your strategy moving froward.

🤝Multiple offers are a number we’ve been tracking closely, especially with the dip in the last few weeks. We hovered around 80% for the last number of weeks up until last week's drop to just under 70%. We saw another drop this week to the mid 60’s. These numbers don’t mean that the sky is falling for sellers, but they do support my conversation with other office managers this week that bidding wars are becoming fewer.

🏡We’ve had 13 weeks in a row where the # of new listings were larger than the # of sales for the week. Well, this week we reverse the trend! We saw 68 sales which is in-line with the sales we have seen recently, but only 63 new listings. This is the fewest new listings since March! We may have seen the peak of the spring market from a new listings standpoint already.

👇The other trend we have we seen for all of 2021 has been increasing the number of total listings. Well with # sales > # listings this week; we saw a pull back on the total amount of listings available. It was quite a large pull back to going form 236 red dots on realtor.ca to 222!. My predictions way back in the old-days of 6 months ago was that a healthy spring market would see 175-ish total listings. Well, it didn’t take long for us to meet and exceed that number, hitting the peak (at least for now) of 236 just last week. If we continue to see more sales than listings in future weeks we may be seeing total listings pull back towards the 200 range. If this happens, we may be seeing signs of the shift that has been favouring buyers go back to empowering sellers.

🗓Where is the market going from here? For almost 2 years I have been analyzing the stats on a weekly basis and one thing I’ve understood is the market is not efficient. When the stats show the market slowing, the market doesn’t actually slow down for 4+ weeks. Same thing when the market gets more active, it takes a few weeks (or even a few months) for the pendulum to swing and the buyers or sellers to have a true understanding of what is going on in the market. Well the pendulum seems like it could be swinging back towards the sellers...just when buyers were only beginning to see that the market shift in their favour. All that being said, we are headed to a slow down; fewer listings will eventually see fewer sales and we’ll return to a market where houses sell in weeks and not hours. How long will the transition take to happen? I think as we are moving towards a fall market we will see this picture come more into focus. This is actually all good news: fewer blind bidding wars, buyers being able to take their time to make decisions and get offers accepted with those ‘home-inspection’ conditions that seem like a distant memory.

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2020 Real Estate Predictions

Selling the RockBy Selling the RockJan 01, 2020