The Future is Electric

What will it be like to interact with a conscious machine? What does it mean to be conscious? What is there to interact with? Where can we start? This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication, written and recorded by frequent TFIE collaborator David Clement.

It is difficult for many of us to understand the language of machine learning and thus we map this into the only common experience we have of AI: popular culture. The gap between ‘Skynet’ and what Yoshua Bengio is describing is vast. We need a new fiction that can help us all understand what it really is and the impact it is likely to have. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication, written and recorded by TFIE collaborator David Clement.

For many, hydroelectric dams seem as if they should be environmentally benign, delivering large quantities of carbon-free electricity. The water is renewable, there are no fossil fuels involved and you end up with lovely lakes. But dams have a dark side and siting is important. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication.

Indonesia is a regional powerhouse and a growing economy of value to itself, the region and the world. It’s currently struggling with a trio of natural disasters in Sulawesi with an earthquake, a resultant tsunami and now a major volcanic eruption. But its long-term ability to thrive is more challenged by climate change. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication.

Population is a current obsession of the deny and delay crowd. On the one hand, there’s the inaccurate, ahistorical and racist assertion that it’s population growth that’s the problem, specifically in countries where there are people who aren’t white and Christian. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium podcast.

This is the last in a series of articles detailing the challenges facing rapid transformation to substantial decarbonization by 2030. This article deals with a different challenge, that of procuring enough of the right technology for rapid transformation. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication.

This article deals with a specific challenge within major organizations which will be seeing substantial change over the next 20 years, and organizations which are expected to drive those changes. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication.

This article deals with the specific headwinds of regulatory patchworks that exist across the United States and Canada, headwinds which will slow rapid decarbonization and must be addressed. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication.

We are at a challenging point in time. The UN IPCC 1.5 degrees report has made it clear that we have until 2030 to make major strides to achieve that aspirational COP21 target, and if we don’t 2 degrees is quite a lot worse. But there are systemic barriers to progress for many of the solutions. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication.

As we face the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerging from China, memories of SARS and its global deaths and economic impacts echoing hollowly, it’s worth reviewing the increasing linkages of climate change and disease. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication.

Include pumped hydro in your formal climate plans. Commit to streamlining regulatory processes. Commit federal funds. Create state-level storage targets. Promise to engage coal workers in building pumped storage hydro in their regions. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium publication.

Recently a study was published on the carbon debt of advances in machine learning. It’s a fair subject of study, but the concern was overstated twice, first by the paper itself based on some faulty assumptions and then by media headlines which blared the results. This is a podcast version of the article of the same title in the TFIE Medium podcast.

Recently, Sigal Samuel of Vox asked 9 experts, “How should billionaires spend their money to fight climate change?” It’s a worthwhile question, as right now a lot of billionaires are spending a lot of money on the subject and related concerns, and some of it is a waste of money. This article will look at some of the suggested solutions, and look at a few billionaires and how they are actually spending their money, and make some judgments about the experts and their opinions. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

There’s absolutely no doubt to anyone whose brain is actually present in this century that climate change is vastly more dangerous than Communism today. That’s why the fossil fuel industry and conservative parties are spending so much to try to stay in the 20th Century. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Jacobson's latest study is going to create fireworks because it’s explicit about leaning into the Green New Deal. That eminently sensible set of targets, strongly aligned with the UN IPCC 1.5 degree reports and strongly aligned with the Roosevelt New Deal that arguably did make America great, is understandably a large target for many commentators from the right. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

The trend in Jacobson’s study as each point is looked, as storage and transmission assessments show, at is that he and his team aren’t suggesting anything radical, but a very conservative approach that is possible to massively improve upon with existing and proven technologies. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Jacobson and his team have done an excellent job showing that a 100% renewables, very low carbon electrical supply of all energy needs is easily achievable. Moreover, they make it clear that it’s a lot cheaper in both internalized and externalized costs. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

The short list are electrification of transportation of various types, economic growth in areas currently with fewer cars, renewables plus grid innovation, urbanization, other uses for oil, and induced demand. Some will hasten and some will defer peak demand for oil. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Let’s just run a thought experiment, shall we? Suppose a nice big asteroid was coming for earth. We saw that it had a 99.999% chance of hitting us. From the evidence, scientists figured out that it massed a few tons. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

New Urbanism is a model of urban development which aspired to remake communities into walkable, live-work places for people, not cars. It failed, but left behind something better. This is a podcast version of an article by the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

Amazon is reportedly working on a television adaptation of the Culture, having acquired the rights to Consider Phlebas, the first book in the series of ten. Elon Musk names the SpaceX autonomous barges that catch his descending reusable rocket stages after intelligent ships from the series. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

Pro-nuclear advocates have a few go-to cliches in their rhetorical kitbag. A big one is that the public has an irrational fear of nuclear energy and it’s led to nuclear shutdowns and excessive regulation. Let’s examine the historical record of nuclear generation to see if it's true. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

Official statements on the costs of the Fukushima nuclear disaster don’t capture all the costs. When a full accounting is done, the total cost will be closer to a trillion USD than not. That’s $2 billion USD for each of the roughly 500 nuclear reactors operating on Earth today. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

If the US PWR fleet and their owners could convince regulators to the fleet to bid on day-ahead reserves and draw up new contracts to support it, they could keep more reactors running producing low-carbon electricity longer in the face of competition from cheap gas, wind, and solar. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Actual conservatives are poorly represented by parties that are branded as conservative in many countries right now, which is where the problem arises. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

Nixon was contained by a party which still had integrity despite his early efforts, but his efforts led, through many other culpable leaders, to Trump having no opposition from within the shell of the party he burrowed into like a vulture on a rotting corpse. This is a podcast version of the article by the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

It’s a game a lot of conservatives are playing these days, trying to pretend that other liberals aren’t really liberals, a No True Scotsman inversion that’s fairly consistent through the Intellectual Dim Web and many young male conservatives today. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

It’s no longer possible for the developed world to use the developing world as its landfill site and recycling facility. AMP Robotics is at the forefront of systems which are allowing us to sort our own waste more effectively. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

Regardless of anything else, the primary glue that holds our buildings, bridges, and infrastructure together is going to become more expensive in a low-carbon world. This has fairly significant implications for the cost to build most of the infrastructure we depend on. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

New Brunswick Power and through them the rate payers of the province of New Brunswick are out at minimum $13 million spent on an obviously non-viable technology. Their due diligence failed. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Actual conservatives, people interested in preserving the environment, preserving the progress that’s been made and not that interested in new progress, and working off of solid empirical evidence of what works and what doesn’t, are mostly not in the Conservative Party of Canada today. This is a podcast version of an article by the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

What is true for every small settlement in rural areas is more true for the Yukon: their ability to survive and thrive in the era of urbanization is deeply challenged. It’s extremely difficult to offer even the basics of living in developed countries: clean water, reliable electricity, a diverse diet and internet connectivity. All of these things are more challenged by climate change. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the Medium TFIE publication.

Listening to Trump on wind energy provides such a fact-free experience that anyone exposed to his ranting ends up less informed. Pity the poor students, unless they were psychology students of course, as they would be gaining invaluable case material. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the Medium TFIE publication.

The oil industry and Alberta are going to leave Canadians from outside of Alberta with a quarter trillion dollar liability to clean up. And we will. But we’re going to be really pissed at Alberta and Albertans for decades over it. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the Medium TFIE publication.

It’s our job to help them. Let no aged, ignorant, mush-brained, conservative man be left behind will be our rallying call. We will celebrate our victories and rue each one who passes into that good night still watching Fox News and reading Breitbart. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the Medium TFIE publication.

I've been paying attention to climate change deniers and the academic studies around their delusions for years. They used to be able to surprise me, but now they are so far down the rabbit hole of ignorance and bile that it's impossible for them to shock me. This is a podcast version of the article of same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

We have multiple lines of evidence that indicate that Republicans need to win a lot of Independents to win the Presidency, that Independents are increasingly concerned about climate change, and that this is probably even more true in Florida than anywhere else. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

We are experiencing a period of increasing isolation between left and right in North America, and the data suggests that’s true in Europe as well. Many on the right think that liberal-oriented parties have become too extreme, too left wing. So why do liberals have such different world views than conservatives these days? In general, data and reality. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Climate change is the most significant issue of the 21st Century. It’s already causing environmental refugees, economic impacts, health impacts and the impacts are only going to increase over the next 80 and 200 years. Urgent action is required, as the UN IPCC 1.5 degree reports make clear. Yet mass media is significantly challenged in their coverage. What can be done? This is podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

Carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems are policy tools. Regulation is a policy tool. Picking winners such as wind and solar to incent via tax breaks and feed-in tariffs are policy tools. Picking losers such as coal to eliminate is a policy tool. The answer won’t be either taxes or regulation, but both. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Seven concepts — fungibility, ubiquity, loose coupling, electronics outperforming the physical, human nature, economics, and the future already being here — make it clear that the future is electric. They allow us to look across the existing solution sets and see clear winners and losers. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

There’s no reason to think that Gen IV reactors whenever they actually get to a stage where they might be deployed commercially will end up being cheaper than alternatives. The opposite is likely to be true, that they will be much more expensive than the alternatives and with other unappealing characteristics. This is a podcast version of the article with the same name on the TFIE Medium podcast.

In 2017, Stanford economist Tony Seba and tech investor James Arbib released a co-authored study which made the following claims: “Private car ownership will drop 80% by 2030 in the US" and "The number of passenger vehicles on American roads will go from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030." Those are compelling numbers, but I’m not buying them. I think the underlying model of human behavior and transportation is too simplistic. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

Congestion is a serious issue in developed countries, but autonomous cars are likely to be as much a part of the problem as part of the solution. As I look across all of the systemic implications of autonomous cars, I see equal or greater congestion on our roads, not less, and more societal negative externalities than advantages. Autonomous vehicles are not a silver bullet for traffic problems. This is a podcast version of the article by the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

This story deals with how neural nets learn to pay attention to specific features, giving them priority in a continuum of what they pay attention to. This is referred to as salience, a key aspect of how humans pay attention. Neural nets can be trained to have our saliency biases or they can develop their own, ones that will often surprise us. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Some people keep saying one degree Celsius like it’s no big deal. But it’s a very big deal, especially the rapidity with which we are going it. One degree is disruptive. Two degrees is massively disruptive. Three degrees is catastrophic for millions of people globally. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

There is a core of 100% settled science at the heart of climate change which will not change unless there is a huge paradigm shift in our understanding of the climate, something which is extremely unlikely. None of the precursors Kuhn identified to a paradigm shift are actually apparent in the literature and research that is underway. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Harley-Davidson has a racism problem. Even its most progressive brand adherents have challenges with that. And even its most progressive and rational adherents will cherry-pick, deny and obfuscate to avoid confronting unpleasant reality. This is a podcast version of the article by the same name in the Medium TFIE publication.

Global warming disruption is upon us. We have record hurricanes in North America, increasing typhoons in Asia, increasing and changing monsoons around India, increased wildfires in Australia and western North America and sea water in the streets of Miami and other major cities on sunny, calm days. Most people will adapt in place. But many have the means or motivation to find the places which will see lower impacts. Where will they be? This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the Medium TFIE publication.

Electric cars and other vehicles continue to gain momentum, just as autonomous features are becoming mainstream. But while potential job losses due to autonomy are a strong focus, the multitude of impacts electrification will have on road transportation aren’t as clearly stated. Overall, the impact will be very positive economically, but there will be a lot of disruption and many losers too. This a podcast version of the article of the same name in the Medium TFIE publication.