The Hedged Edge

As we start 2023 – the stakes could not be higher for the agriculture sector! The world population is growing rapidly, crossing 8 Billion in November of last year. Due to the historic drought and war, there are lower stocks of the major grain supplies globally.  

Energy and interest rates have accelerated rapidly vs. this time last year, leading to higher input costs and raising the break-even levels for farmers and end users to unprecedented levels…plus there is still a war going on.  

To help give us some insight and answers to what lies ahead, we’re lucky to have two highly respected panelists with us today from both the banking and commodity risk management sides of the business; Rebecca King, Old National’s Agriculture Group, and Jody Lawrence, RCM Ag Services.

Webinar links:

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there's no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we're joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we're taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

• The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
• Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
• Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

With the world population just crossing 8 Billion in November 2022, the details of what it takes to feed the world today and the question of what it will take to feed the world 30 years from now when the population is expected to approach 10 Billion is mind-blowing to many. Today’s guest, Russel Taylor, is an expert on the science behind bringing additional agriculture yield to life through soil health.

Russell Taylor is President of Live Earth Products, Inc., a premium producer of humic shale-derived products. He has spent 20 years mining, extracting, and marketing of humic acid-based products. Areas of experience include; agriculture, turf management, organic fertilizers, animal feed, and soil reclamation. His knowledge has put his company at the forefront of the soil health revolution.

Quick Links from the episode:

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast's most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, "what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?"

To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.

Quick Links from the episode:

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America's farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page from "The Clash" should we stay or should we go?! And, we aren't the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, "What will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don't want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan."

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand...Should we stay or should we go…

Episode Quick Links:

RCM Ag Services is putting a unique spin on National Agriculture Day by going international. That's right, we're jumping right into international waters with Maria Dorsett from USDA's Foreign Agriculture Services for an interesting discussion about linking U.S. agriculture to the rest of the world.

Each year, March 22 represents a special day to increase public awareness of the U.S.'s agricultural role in society, so why not take it one step further by bringing in a global component? As the world population soars, there's an even greater demand for producing food, fiber, and renewable resources. That's why we're taking a deeper dive into the USDA's trade finance programs, like the GSM-102, which supports sales of U.S. agricultural products in overseas markets and supports export growth in areas of the world that are seeing some of the fastest population growth.

So, jump aboard (no passport needed), as Maria discusses how U.S. companies use GSM-102, what the program features, and the benefits that it offers!

Quick Links from the episode:

Educational GSM presentations:

A special guest joins us for this episode of The Hedged Edge, who is well known for his many titles, which include Doctor, Editor-in-Chief, Dean, and Chief Academic Officer, just to name a few. Dr. Channa S. Prakash, Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) at Tuskegee University, has served as faculty since 1989 and is a professor of crop genetics, biotechnology, and genomics. He is also well recognized for mentoring underrepresented minority students.

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between. And as a bonus, we find out what sport he would be interested in playing if he went professional.

Highlights from this week's episode include:

• The science that has provided our farmers with better varieties of crop lines by using some of the most sophisticated technology on Earth
• Why producing crop plants with a much gentler footprint on the natural resources will help feed the growing population
• How 75% of the world's patents in agriculture gene editing are coming out of China
• Understanding that trying to impose restrictions on our ability to grow food can be a considerable risk to agriculture and more!

Quick links from the episode:

The 2021 U.S. grain crop has the potential to be one of the largest on record. Where did all the yield come from, what areas were the hardest hit, and why on God's green earth are grain prices still so high?

Today, we are joined by several RCM Ag Services grain markets experts from around the country to catch up on a post-harvest update and share an outlook for production and marketing in each of their respective regions for the remainder of the 2021 marketing season and the upcoming 22 crops.

For the past year, commodity prices have perpetually soared and continue to trend higher. We're diving into the fertilizer forecast with a unique guest, Billy Dale Strader, a branch manager for Helena Agri-Enterprises in Russellville, KY., who is truly at the epicenter of the rising fertilizer prices.

Billy Dale planted his agriculture roots on his family-owned farm and has managed regional seed and chemical sales at Helena for the past decade. In this week's pod, we tackle the big question for farmers and ultimately end-users — is the impact of higher-priced inputs, like seeds, chemicals, and fertilizer, on the supply and demand for the major U.S. crops? Listen to find out!

Reach out to Billy Dale at straderb@helenaagri.com

Find out more information here: https://www.helenaagri.com/

The Hedged Edge is back, and we're jumping into the thick of the commodity markets with RCM’s own King of Cotton – Ron Lawson. Cotton prices have exploded since the COVID crash, rising more than 236% from the March 2020 lows. While prices have backed off from the October 8th high, cotton is one of the purest supply + demand-driven markets around the world and has caught fire along with the global inflation bug currently running rampant across many commodity markets.

Will it be hedge fund influence in cotton that costs consumers more this Holiday season or will the continued logistical issues tie up cotton at ports send consumers scrambling to eBay for their “snuggies”? For cotton producers, merchants, spinning mills, and banks financing the backbone of the cotton supply, risk management must remain at the top of mind for the remainder of this year and into 2022 (as the current cycle is likely to continue to last for at least the next 12-18 months.) We'll dive into the thick of it in this episode and more — Hold on to your hats and enjoy!

It is no secret that commodity markets have been on fire over the past 12 months.  On today’s podcast we’ve brought on one of our real-life firefighters from RCM Ag – Jody Lawrence along with Tim Andriesen from the CME Group to provide us with some inside baseball knowledge of the current state of the agriculture markets and to discuss the real-world application of the use of short-dated options to potentially fight the current blaze of volatility surrounding agriculture markets.

As the director Research for RCM Jody is no stranger to the podcast.  Tim is the Managing Director of Agriculture products for the CME Group and is responsible for management of the company’s global agriculture commodities business – including grain, oilseed, livestock, and dairy risk management products.

Agronomy is one of the most important facets of agriculture since farming began. Everyone from the farmer to the producer to the elevator depends on the success of agronomist and their advice to the American Farmer – and we’re lucky to have one of the top agronomists in the industry with us on The Hedged Edge today. Greg Willoughby is a 20-year industry veteran, and currently the Technical Service Manager at Helena Agri-Enterprises. We’re talking with Greg in today’s episode about being a “plant doctor”, weather patterns, GMO & organic produce, crop history, technical advances, level 201 education on agronomy, the agronomy equation, Helena Agri, soil biology, American v European agriculture, Greg’s early background in livestock, and the advancement of native plants to modern produce.

How can lumber prices shoot up nearly 300% in one year? Does it all come down to the Corona-push to homebuying, supply chain issues, environmental swings, all of the above or none of it at all? We wanted to dig into all these questions and more with a lumber veteran to get the nitty gritty explanations on why everyone is talking about lumber. Today we’re joined by Kyle Little a 4thgeneration lumberman and Chief Operation Officer at Sherwood Lumber. Kyle has joined us to talk about the lumber supply chain & sourcing, all the types of lumber, the housing rush, the current lumber shortage and the outlook for lumber in the next 3/6/12/24 months.

If you’ve taken an ag econ class, been in the industry on the producer or investor side, or just have a general interest in the ag space, there’s a good chance that you’ve come across Mastering the Grain Markets by Elaine Kub. It’s the perfect intro to understanding ways that could help you make money trading grain, and we’re lucky to be joined by the author herself to talk about her books, designer contracts, crop opportunities, market outlook, what the next “game changers” in the ag business are going to be and more.

The USDA came out with a bullish report???!!!! It’s fair to say that many in the industry (us included) were left speechless. We know that 2020 was a crazy ride for commodities, but it looks like we may be in for an even WILDER ride on the opposite end for 2021. To discuss this bullish report, we’re joined by our two favorite RCM Ag Services Cotton and Grain experts to discuss how this recent report is bound to affect the markets/insurance premiums/loan opportunities and much more in the coming months.

In part II of our 2021 Outlook, we’re joined by RCM Ag Services’ Meat experts Kevin Bost and Tom Chavez to talk about the meat markets in the year to come.

Check out Part I here

2020 was a notably difficult year for commodities – oil went negative, coronavirus halted trade and decreased demand, and overall turmoil in the markets sent investors fleeing. Though the first quarter was rough, commodities did their best to rally in the last three quarters of the year and did so as well as they could. So, what of 2021? Are we going to see major rallies in the grain markets with dry weather and Chinese consumption? What about the cotton markets? Are we looking for a steady year or will cotton continue to trend down?

In Part I, we’re joined by our Cotton expert – Ron Lawson, and our Grains expert – Jody Lawrence to talk about the outlook for these markets into 2021.

Check out Part II here

In this monthly segment on The Hedged Edge, RCM Ag Services pros Jody Lawrence, Ron Lawson, Kevin Bost, and host Jeff Eizenberg come together to provide expert knowledge on important markets including cotton, meat, and grains following the USDA Report.

For the commodity world, 2020 has been particularly interesting. Between stimulus packages and China buying pullback, to ramping up production and setting up for a potential big comeback in 2021 it feels like we’ve been living through a game of ping pong. So to review it all – plus give some insight into 2021 – we’ve brought Dr. Scott Irwin on to go through it all. Dr. Scott Irwin is chair of the Agricultural Marketing in the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana. Scott is a national and international leader in the field of agricultural economics. His research on agricultural markets is widely-cited by other academic researchers and is in high demand among market participants, policymakers, and the media. In today’s episode, we’re talking about 2021 and beyond, game changers in the ag market, Chinese demand, the USDA report, University of Illinois program, and FarmDoc.

In this monthly segment on The Hedged Edge, RCM Ag Services pros Jody Lawrence, Ron Lawson, Kevin Bost, and host Jeff Eizenberg come together to provide expert knowledge on important markets including cotton, meat, and grains following the USDA Report.

During today’s episode we’re talking about reporting back from farmers on the recent USDA report, labor shortfalls,  taxes and tariffs, commodity price inflation, adjusting planting intentions, feed prices affecting hog/cattle prices, calorie reports, corn vs beans,  and more from the report and looking towards the end of 2020.

In part 2 of our virtual road trip around the U.S. we’re making our way to South Dakota, Mississippi, and Texas. We’ll be covering updates on market conditions, harvest crop updates, 2020-2021 predictions and more in these three states. To give us more detail about the regional nuances on these topics, we’re joined by three of the best guys in the business to give you their take on their home state:

Chapters:

We’re doing a virtual road trip around the U.S. in today’s podcast visiting some of our favorite ag persons for harvest market updates. We’ll be travelling from Tennessee to Kansas to get you updates on market conditions, harvest crop updates, 2020-2021 predictions and more. To give us more detail about the regional nuances on these topics, we’re joined by some of the best guys in the business to give you their take on their home state:

Chapters: 

International meat trade (including Kangaroo!), years of writing and thousands of subscribers, risk management consulting and more – today’s guest really is a jack of all (ag) trades. Simon Quilty, global meat trader and analyst with Global Agritrends is on today’s podcast to take a deeper dive into his risk management background (with tips for operations of all sizes), the background on how he became one of the world’s leading researchers on international protein markets, and more crazy stories that fit his entertaining personality.

In our first episode of The Hedged Edge we’re bringing the heat with the King of Cotton, the Emperor of Options – Ron Lawson. Ron’s experience in the agribusiness space spans over 4 decades giving him unique expertise of both agricultural business, and the business of agriculture. On today’s pod, Ron is here to share his knowledge on cotton commodities, options trading, “Lawson’s Laws,” and much more.