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Small Business Forecast

Small Business Forecast

By Tom Sullivan

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Tom Sullivan and National Federation of Independent Business Holly Wade summarize what’s going on with small businesses and provide their forecast.
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Los Angeles snowstorm? A somber small biz economic outlook this week.

Small Business ForecastFeb 27, 2023

00:00
08:31
Small business in a valley — latest data on the Main St economy

Small business in a valley — latest data on the Main St economy

Headwinds of inflation still blowing hard in the face of small employers on Main Street. At same time, their negativity towards local and national economic conditions is lessening.
Apr 22, 202410:11
Does the road ahead look good for small businesses?

Does the road ahead look good for small businesses?

Confidence is down, but the road ahead may be good for employers on Main Street.
Apr 15, 202409:07
Main Street hitting the brakes on hiring? How else can small business keep up with labor costs?

Main Street hitting the brakes on hiring? How else can small business keep up with labor costs?

Good news is that small businesses’ views on the economy are improving. Bad news is that inflation is pushing back hiring plans for small business owners.
Apr 08, 202410:18
Holding steady on Main Street - better or worse for the small business economy?

Holding steady on Main Street - better or worse for the small business economy?

Latest data show revenue and profit expectations holding steady. However, inflationary concerns are also holding steady.
Apr 01, 202413:33
Wage increases level off, giving small employers some relief.

Wage increases level off, giving small employers some relief.

Wage inflation is finally cooling off except for the warehousing and construction sectors. This is welcome news for small employers who have faced a 6-year worker shortage.
Mar 25, 202408:56
Inflation continues as strongest headwind for small business, but sales expectations are up.

Inflation continues as strongest headwind for small business, but sales expectations are up.

Inflation tops the list of concerns for small businesses unless you’re in the construction industry where finding employees is top challenge. Small businesses are still bullish on 2024.
Mar 18, 202408:45
Inflation still too damn high. Things look good on Main Street, but worker shortages are a headwind

Inflation still too damn high. Things look good on Main Street, but worker shortages are a headwind

Partly cloudy, especially for wholesale sector and construction industry— desperate for workers. Other Main Street employers doing pretty well. 75% are positive about cash flow through 2024.
Mar 11, 202409:44
Small business bullish on economy, but still worried about inflation.

Small business bullish on economy, but still worried about inflation.

The latest data show more small business owners positive about the economy than negative. Revenue expectations remain high, but profitability expectations are flat, reflecting continued anxiety over inflation.
Mar 04, 202404:45
Sunny forecast for small business this week.

Sunny forecast for small business this week.

Things looking pretty good for small business, with continued optimism for revenue growth this year. The clouds that remain on the horizon are mostly because of higher costs, especially to keep and hire good employees.
Feb 26, 202410:44
Partly cloudy, but who knows? A shocking drop in sales expectations throws a wrench into forecast.

Partly cloudy, but who knows? A shocking drop in sales expectations throws a wrench into forecast.

Tom & Holly stick with a “partly cloudy” forecast, but don’t know what to think with regard to the sharp drop in sales expectations that showed up in January data.
Feb 20, 202408:30
Week after the Superbowl, how are small businesses doing?

Week after the Superbowl, how are small businesses doing?

No surprise that when the Superbowl generates $17.3 billion in economic activity that sunshine is in the forecast this week.
Feb 12, 202408:53
Is it partly cloudy or sunny for small businesses this week? The week’s national small biz forecast

Is it partly cloudy or sunny for small businesses this week? The week’s national small biz forecast

Holly says “partly cloudy.” Tom says “sunny.” Learn why from latest small business data.
Feb 05, 202410:18
This week’s forecast is sunny. Are the storm clouds on the horizon getting closer?

This week’s forecast is sunny. Are the storm clouds on the horizon getting closer?

Good GDP numbers and data showing a strong Q4 for small business earnings equates to a “sunny” forecast this week.
Jan 29, 202407:58
Sunny & cold forecast for Main Street this week.

Sunny & cold forecast for Main Street this week.

Sunny = small businesses feeling good about cash flow and revenues. Cold = high interest rates crimping small businesses’ growth plans.
Jan 22, 202409:13
Sunny or partly sunny for small business this week?

Sunny or partly sunny for small business this week?

Sunny - 2023 was record year for new business starts. Partly Sunny - small businesses postponing growth because of high interest rates.
Jan 16, 202407:16
Forecast for economic weather on Main Street this week is partly sunny.

Forecast for economic weather on Main Street this week is partly sunny.


Sunny - small business optimism is bolstered by speculation that interest rates won’t continue to rise and that inflation reached its peak last year. Cloudy - worker shortages may be the new normal and small employers are considering growth strategies that aren’t overly dependent on hiring more employees.
Jan 08, 202409:57
Happy New Year - this week’s forecast is a question and not a statement.

Happy New Year - this week’s forecast is a question and not a statement.

How will small businesses grow without adding employees? The answer will be answered by successful employers on Main Streets all over America throughout 2024z
Jan 02, 202408:52
Small business forecast is cloudy.

Small business forecast is cloudy.

Even though small businesses are optimistic about sales, the pesky inflation (MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index lists inflation as top concern for 8 consecutive quarters) is causing anxiety that sales won’t outpace inflation throughout 2024.
Dec 27, 202305:06
Cloudy on Main Street. New MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index slips downward.

Cloudy on Main Street. New MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index slips downward.

Inflation remains small businesses’ top concern and anxiety over lower margins caused by higher costs continues. Small businesses’ views on their own health and cash flow remain positive.
Dec 18, 202305:18
Partly cloudy for small business. All eyes on Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week.

Partly cloudy for small business. All eyes on Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week.

Partly cloudy forecast this week and a hope for sun when CPI shows inflation going down.
Dec 11, 202310:03
Weather (economic) forecast for Main Street is partly sunny this week.

Weather (economic) forecast for Main Street is partly sunny this week.

Robust holiday sales, especially for small businesses selling online, are bright spots of sunshine this week. Inflation and rising concerns over federal red tape are the clouds that prevent clear sunny skies on the horizon.
Dec 04, 202311:28
Partly cloudy to party SUNNY - online spending matters for small business.

Partly cloudy to party SUNNY - online spending matters for small business.

Online sales records in the U.S. benefit small businesses more than ever before because COVID forced Main Street businesses online.
Nov 27, 202309:11
Thanksgiving week - partly cloudy.

Thanksgiving week - partly cloudy.

Main Street businesses hoping for robust holiday sales, especially on Small Business Saturday.
Nov 20, 202305:05
Are small businesses above the clouds?

Are small businesses above the clouds?

This weeks forecast is partly sunny. Small business owners are doing well, but clouds of inflation, worker shortages, energy costs, and interest rates are ever-present.
Nov 06, 202310:10
Remarkable GDP numbers have things looking pretty good on Main Street. Do Tom & Holly agree?

Remarkable GDP numbers have things looking pretty good on Main Street. Do Tom & Holly agree?

Partly cloudy (or partly sunny) forecast on Main Street this week. Tom is worried about small businesses’ outlook on profitability.
Oct 30, 202309:46
Heavy cloud cover, so why are temperatures so pleasant on Main Street?

Heavy cloud cover, so why are temperatures so pleasant on Main Street?

Positive data from small business equates to nice temperatures, but political uncertainty is making the skies cloudy.
Oct 23, 202309:02
More clouds in small business forecast.

More clouds in small business forecast.

Still cloudy on Main Street, but individual small business owners are experiencing decent weather. Latest data from NFIB and U.S. Chamber show amazing small business resilience, but anxiety over domestic and global political turmoil.
Oct 16, 202309:60
Cloudy on Main Street and clouds will stick around.

Cloudy on Main Street and clouds will stick around.

Small business owners remain confident in their own operations, but uncertainty nationally and globally is making Main Street’s outlook cloudy.
Oct 09, 202309:53
Cloudy and nice weather on Main Street now that immediate threat of government shutdown passed.

Cloudy and nice weather on Main Street now that immediate threat of government shutdown passed.

Optimism towards future revenues buoys Main Street and anxiety over uncertainty emanating from Washington is cause for concern.
Oct 02, 202308:47
Sunny or cloudy? Shocks to our economy will answer that question for Main Street

Sunny or cloudy? Shocks to our economy will answer that question for Main Street

Small businesses are doing well, but several factors that may curb spending threaten their wellbeing.
Sep 25, 202309:04
Good weather, but thunderstorms popping up.

Good weather, but thunderstorms popping up.

Confidence on Main Street remains high, but thunderstorms caused by concerns over energy prices threaten small businesses’ otherwise pleasant weather.
Sep 18, 202303:32
Sunny on Main Street - why the pessimism?

Sunny on Main Street - why the pessimism?

Sunny weather for small employers, but worker shortages, especially in rural areas, spur negative outlook.
Sep 11, 202310:23
Economy slows down. Is that good weather or bad? It depends who you ask

Economy slows down. Is that good weather or bad? It depends who you ask

Sunny weather on Main Street with good data from NFIB and the U.S.Chamber of Commerce. A real question about whether storm clouds are threats or opportunities.
Sep 05, 202309:10
Solid month of good weather. Small businesses are doing well, but are negative on national economy.

Solid month of good weather. Small businesses are doing well, but are negative on national economy.

Lots of data on how well things are going on Main Street. Hence, a sunny forecast. Attitudes about national economy are negative and account for storm clouds on horizon.
Aug 28, 202308:33
Sunny weather for small business. 3-weeks. Can it be true?

Sunny weather for small business. 3-weeks. Can it be true?

Small businesses are doing well. It’s looking sunny and a little hazy from rising interest rates. Inflation is a major headwind, but small employers are persevering.
Aug 21, 202306:58
Nice weather again. Wait, aren’t those the same storm clouds from past several years?!

Nice weather again. Wait, aren’t those the same storm clouds from past several years?!

Small business data indicates good weather on Main Street. Amazing, given inflation and high interest rates. 8-yr challenge to hiring good employees continues.
Aug 14, 202308:22
Two weeks in a row of sunshine? Yes, it’s a good forecast for Main Street employers.

Two weeks in a row of sunshine? Yes, it’s a good forecast for Main Street employers.

Job numbers and small business optimism look good even though high inflation and interest rates are storm clouds on the horizon.
Aug 07, 202306:59
Break in the weather? A bright spot in the national small business forecast.

Break in the weather? A bright spot in the national small business forecast.

Good sales, job numbers, and optimism combine for a positive outlook. Still-high inflation and worker shortages remain, but seem to be lessening. Anxiety over federal regulatory overreach is omnipresent and equates to “threat of storms on the horizon” for small employers across America.
Jul 31, 202308:34
This week’s small business forecast is nice inside (thank you A/C) and hot & sticky outside.

This week’s small business forecast is nice inside (thank you A/C) and hot & sticky outside.

Small businesses are doing well, but inflation, worker shortages, and more potential rate hikes are causing anxiety on Main Streets across America.
Jul 24, 202309:08
It’s hot & sticky out there for small business.

It’s hot & sticky out there for small business.

National economic news is good, so why are Main Street employers anxious? Spoiler alert: Inflation and worker shortages.
Jul 17, 202308:54
Forecast for small business this week, “sunny, but miserable?”

Forecast for small business this week, “sunny, but miserable?”

Main Street employers are doing pretty well and are bullish on future sales and hiring . However, high inflation, worker shortages, and more interest rate hikes make otherwise “sunny” weather seem awful.
Jul 10, 202306:47
Partly sunny for small businesses on this week of the July Fourth holiday

Partly sunny for small businesses on this week of the July Fourth holiday

Positive revenue projections bolster the “partly sunny” forecast. Main Street employers resilient in face of high inflation, worker shortages, and expected rate increases.
Jul 05, 202307:14
Last week of June - Partly sunny forecast. “Things going well, but doesn’t feel good” on Main Street

Last week of June - Partly sunny forecast. “Things going well, but doesn’t feel good” on Main Street

Partly sunny, but storm clouds threaten, with more rate hikes and red tape emanating from Washington.
Jun 26, 202307:16
Good news (housing starts) leads to a sunnier Main Street forecast

Good news (housing starts) leads to a sunnier Main Street forecast

Some good news (Fed didn’t raise rates and data on new housing construction) prompts a sunnier forecast for America’s small business community.
Jun 21, 202315:13
Rising interest rates and small business.

Rising interest rates and small business.

National forecast is still cloudy, but a few Supreme Court decisions are bright spot.
Jun 12, 202309:51
We didn’t default on our debt. Now what? Forecast still cloudy.

We didn’t default on our debt. Now what? Forecast still cloudy.

High inflation doesn’t seem to allow small employers to hire. Yet, national employment numbers are strong? Confusion equates to a cloudy forecast for small business
Jun 05, 202309:43
Gloomy forecast as X Date nears

Gloomy forecast as X Date nears

Gloomy forecast w/ inflation still high, rising interest rates curbing small biz growth plans, and looming threat of U.S. defaulting on its debt.
May 22, 202304:44
Cloudy with mist - weather worsens for small business

Cloudy with mist - weather worsens for small business

Outlook dims on Main Street as inflation dampens forecast.
May 16, 202310:52
Windy & Cloudy - tough weather for small business?

Windy & Cloudy - tough weather for small business?

The stickiness of high inflation is putting a damper on the national small business forecast.
May 08, 202308:52
Itchy eyes - too much pollen? Partly cloudy forecast for Main Street economy. Storm clouds looming

Itchy eyes - too much pollen? Partly cloudy forecast for Main Street economy. Storm clouds looming

Partly cloudy forecast for Main Street economy. Storm clouds looming. Small businesses remain confident in their own operations while souring on national outlook.
May 01, 202308:57