Unexpected Points
By Unexpected Points
Unexpected PointsJan 20, 2021
Pod Update: I'M NOT LEAVING!
As many of you may know, I've been laid off by PFF as part of a restructure. The pod will continue, and make sure to find all of my written work at: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/
The Week 13 review article is now available with all the adjusted scores and analysis you're looking for: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-nfl-review.
Thanks so much and I'll be back later this week (hopefully).
Ranking the NFL's Top Analytical Teams w/ ESPN's Seth Walder
For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far.
NFL Week 12 Analytical Review
Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and analytical decisions for the Sunday slate of Week 12.
Thanksgiving Day NFL Review
Kevin reviews the three NFL games from Thanksgiving, plus a few model-based best bets.
MNF Review - Jimmy Haters in Shambles, Zach Wilson Benched?
Kevin goes through the MNF matchup with Jimmy shinning, points out the problems with being obsessed with upgrading a "limited" quarterback like Jimmy G or Tua, and all the Zach Wilson drama.
NFL Week 11 Analytical Review
Kevin goes through all the numbers and takeaways from Week 11.
TNF Titans-Packers Review, Return of the Run? NFL Week 11 Best Bet
Kevin goes through the TNF matchup, a ESPN segment of the return of the run and best bet for Week 11.
Evaluating Some of the NFL's Younger QB Talent W/ The Ringer's Steve Ruiz
Kevin is re-joined by The Ringer's Steve Ruiz to evaluate some of the NFL's younger QB talent.
Bills no longer No. 1? Week 10 Analytical Review
Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and grades from Week 10's Sunday slate.
TNF Review, Saturday's Analytics Skepticism, Week 10 Best Bets
Kevin goes through the numbers and implications of the Panthers-Falcons game, plus why Jeff Saturday is skeptical of analytics and the best bets for the weekend by the numbers.
Frank Reich Out, MNF Review
Kevin reviews the MNF matchup and goes in-depth on the decision to fire Frank Reich and replace him with Jeff Saturday.
Jets for Real, for Real? NFL Week 9 Analytical Review
Kevin goes through all Sunday's action with the advanced stats and grades.
TNF Review, NFL Week 9 Best Bets, Mailbag
Kevin goes over a surprisingly close TNF contest and his favorite recreational bets for Sunday.
Trade Deadline Takeaways, Valuations
Former PFFer Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins Kevin to talk about the marco lesson of the deadline and the specific deals that went down this week.
NFL Week 8 Analytical Review
Kevin reviews and the numbers and grades for Sunday Week 8.
TNF Review & Kadarius Toney Trade Analysis
Kevin talks through the Ravens TNF victory and analyzes the Toney, Quinn and Robinson trades.
Fixing NFL Offenses W/ Sam Schwartzstein, Prime Video Analytics
Today, Kevin is re-joined by Prime Video TNF analytics guru, former NFL offensive lineman Sam Schwartzstein to discuss solutions for fixing some NFL offenses, and Prime Video analytics.
NFL Week 7 Analytical Review
Kevin reviews all the relevant numbers and adjusted scores for Sunday's action
CMC Trade Analysis, TNF Review
Kevin recaps Thursday Night Football between the Cardinals & Saints, and breaks down the CMC trade.
MNF Chargers-Broncos Review, plus More Analytics Talk
Kevin talks through the key numbers, grades and takeaways from MNF, plus a look at how to discuss analytics in a better way that we saw in the pre-game show.
NFL Week 6 Analytical Review
Kevin review all the number from Week 6.
TNF Bears-Commanders Review, Snyder on the ropes, Week 6 Best Bets
Kevin discusses the slog that was TNF, plus the stories of the week and some bets he likes for the rest of Week 6.
00:00 Intro
01:00 Analytics discourse taking over
04:37 Bears-Commanders review
05:47 Lack of scoring this season
11:48 4th down decisions
13:48 Justin Fields talk
22:12 Dan Synder article
25:50 Carson Wentz catching strays
32:00 Week 6 Best Bets
MNF Chiefs-Raiders Review & TNF Bears-Commanders Preview
Kevin reviews a wild Chiefs-Raiders matchup and previews TNF.
Week 5 NFL Analytical Review & MNF Preview
Kevin reviews the Sunday slate and previews Chiefs-Raiders MNF matchup.
TNF Broncos-Colts Review & Week 5 Best Bets
Kevin reviews an awful TNF game and looks forward to this weekend's action.
MNF 49ers-Rams Review & TNF Broncos-Colts Preview
Kevin reviews MNF and previews TNF between the Broncos and Colts.
Week 4 Analytical Review & Adjusted Scores
Kevin goes through the Sunday slate of games giving all the adjusted scores and important details on what drove the outcomes.
TNF Bengals-Dolphins Review & Week 4 Best Bets
Kevin reviews this week's TNF matchup and the weekend best bets.
MNF Giants-Cowboys Review & TNF Bengals-Dolphins Preview
Kevin reviews the MNF matchup with all the advanced stats and adjusted scores, plus a preview of a highly anticipated Bengals-Dolphins game on TNF.
Week 3 NFL Analytical Review
Kevin goes through the Week 3 Sunday slate of games with all the advanced stats, adjusted scores and big-picture takeaways.
TNF Browns-Steelers Review & Week 3 Best Bets
Kevin goes through all the advanced stats and grades for Browns-Steelers, plus a few bets he likes for this Sunday's action.
Week 2 MNF Doubleheader Analytics Review
Kevin goes through all the grading and advanced stats for the two MNF games and what it means for the teams going forward.
NFL Week 2 Advanced Stats & Takeaways
Kevin goes through every Sunday game, gives his predictive adjusted scores and points out the most important stats and data to forecast what will happen the rest of the season.
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(00:00) Intro
(01:01) Adjusted scores controversy
(03:12) Are comebacks happening more often?
(05:34) Saints-Bucs
(13:56) Jaguars-Colts
(19:30) Lions-Commanders
(23:47) Why you go for 2 down 8
(28:02) Ravens-Dolphins
(35:40) Browns-Jets
(41:22) Giants-Panthers
(47:38) Patriots-Steelers
(53:36) Rams-Falcons
(58:04) 49ers-Seahawks
(1:04:28) Cowboys-Bengals
(1:10:25) Raiders-Cardinals
(1:12:30) Broncos-Texans
(1:16:30) Packers-Bears
TNF Chiefs-Chargers Review
Kevin goes over all the relevant numbers and grades from the matchup of the Chiefs and Chargers.
MNF Review, 'Explaining Mahomes' Week
Kevin breaks down MNF and why Mahomes' grading is relatively low.
NFL Week 1 Review
Kevin goes through the Week 1 slate with all the advanced stats and proprietary numbers you need to know.
Kickoff TNF Rams-Bills Review
Kevin goes through all the relevant numbers for the first game of the season, why to love the Bills start, but also not go overboard with enthusiasm.
Russ Contract, Week 1 Best Bets
Kevin talks through his Bayesian QB rankings, who is undervalued and how it differs from other rankings out there. Plus, his numbers-based best bets for Week 1 and a breakdown of the Russell Wilson extension
Roster Cutdown Takeaways, Jimmy G is Staying
Kevin breaks down some of the more notable roster cuts, trades among all 32 teams, and Jimmy Garoppolo staying in San Francisco for atleast another season as the 9ers' backup.
NFL Week 3 Preseason Review and News
Kevin goes through every game from the final preseason week, plus discusses the biggest stories around the NFL.
NFL Preseason Week 2 Review
Kevin reviews are the relevant stats from the second week of the NFL preseason.
00:00 Intro
01:25 Life in the Silicon Valley
03:27 Preseason Week 2 Review Setup
04:15 Does the preseason matter
08:18 Young quarterback performances: Pickett, Willis, Skylar Thompson, etc
20:28 Why Pickett should start Week 1
23:45 Running back review
30:22 Wide receiver review
39:25 Tight end review
2022 NFL Betting Preview w/ Rob Pizzola
Kevin talks with professional bettor and BetStamp co-founder Rob Pizzola about his business endeavors and takes on teams that are under- and overvalued in 2022.
0:00 Intro
02:49 What is a professional sports bettor? Why have a public presence
14:18 What is betstamp?
33:25 Does a positive record mean someone is a good bettor?
40:38 2022 Betting Preview
47:10 High on the Eagles
54:15 Low on the Bears
57:44 High on the Saints
1:04:35 Low on the Giants
1:10:24 Figuring out the Browns
1:14:25 Figuring out the Patriots
1:17:50 Figuring out the Cardinals
1:21:50 Figuring out the 49ers
Implications of the Deshaun Watson Suspension Settlement
Kevin discusses the implications of the Watson settlement.
Grading Week 1 of the Preseason
Kevin goes through what matter from Week 1 of the preseason, especially in terms of depth charts and young QB play.
11 Bold Predictions and Hard Knocks Review
Kevin and Josh give their boldest, realistic predictions for the 2022 NFL season. Plus, a few of Hard Knock Ep 1 and the Dan Campbell experience.
2022 NFL Power Rankings; Player Empowerment
Kevin goes through the lookahead betting lines to quantitatively rank NFL teams and find value where the market currently doesn't see it. Plus, talk about Kareem Hunt's contract and what it says about the player empowerment era in the NFL.
Dolphins-Brady Fiasco, Training Camp Storylines
Kevin details why the Dolphins fine was significant and what to pay attention in training camp this week and beyond.
Training Camp Signal or Noise, Watson Decision
Kevin discusses the why of the Watson decision whether it will be appealed and what it means for the Browns' season. Plus, separating the signal and noise in training camp news.
Man vs Machine QB Rankings W/ Josh Hermsmeyer
Josh Hermsmeyer of 538 joins Kevin to opine on the coaches/executive quarterback rankings released in a recent article and go pick-by-pick giving their own rankings and rationales, plus what a strict analytical model predicts for the 2022 season.
Breaking Down the Kyler Murray Extension & Best Offseason Research
Kevin breaks down the details of the Kyler Murray contract and how good he's been so far in his career and what to expect going forward. Plus, a look at the best PFF research that came out this offseason.