Unexpected Points

For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far.

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and analytical decisions for the Sunday slate of Week 12.

Kevin reviews the three NFL games from Thanksgiving, plus a few model-based best bets.

Kevin goes through the MNF matchup with Jimmy shinning, points out the problems with being obsessed with upgrading a "limited" quarterback like Jimmy G or Tua, and all the Zach Wilson drama.

Kevin goes through all the numbers and takeaways from Week 11.

Kevin goes through the TNF matchup, a ESPN segment of the return of the run and best bet for Week 11.

Kevin is re-joined by The Ringer's Steve Ruiz to evaluate some of the NFL's younger QB talent. 

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and grades from Week 10's Sunday slate.

Kevin goes through the numbers and implications of the Panthers-Falcons game, plus why Jeff Saturday is skeptical of analytics and the best bets for the weekend by the numbers.

Kevin reviews the MNF matchup and goes in-depth on the decision to fire Frank Reich and replace him with Jeff Saturday.

Kevin goes through all Sunday's action with the advanced stats and grades.

Kevin goes over a surprisingly close TNF contest and his favorite recreational bets for Sunday.

Former PFFer Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins Kevin to talk about the marco lesson of the deadline and the specific deals that went down this week.

Kevin reviews and the numbers and grades for Sunday Week 8.

Kevin talks through the Ravens TNF victory and analyzes the Toney, Quinn and Robinson trades.

Today, Kevin is re-joined by Prime Video TNF analytics guru, former NFL offensive lineman Sam Schwartzstein to discuss solutions for fixing some NFL offenses, and Prime Video analytics.

Kevin reviews all the relevant numbers and adjusted scores for Sunday's action

Kevin recaps Thursday Night Football between the Cardinals & Saints, and breaks down the CMC trade. 

Kevin talks through the key numbers, grades and takeaways from MNF, plus a look at how to discuss analytics in a better way that we saw in the pre-game show.

Kevin review all the number from Week 6.

Kevin discusses the slog that was TNF, plus the stories of the week and some bets he likes for the rest of Week 6.

00:00 Intro
01:00 Analytics discourse taking over
04:37 Bears-Commanders review
05:47 Lack of scoring this season
11:48 4th down decisions
13:48 Justin Fields talk
22:12 Dan Synder article
25:50 Carson Wentz catching strays
32:00 Week 6 Best Bets

Kevin reviews a wild Chiefs-Raiders matchup and previews TNF.

Kevin reviews the Sunday slate and previews Chiefs-Raiders MNF matchup.

Kevin reviews an awful TNF game and looks forward to this weekend's action.

Kevin reviews MNF and previews TNF between the Broncos and Colts.

Kevin goes through the Sunday slate of games giving all the adjusted scores and important details on what drove the outcomes.

Kevin reviews this week's TNF matchup and the weekend best bets.

Kevin reviews the MNF matchup with all the advanced stats and adjusted scores, plus a preview of a highly anticipated Bengals-Dolphins game on TNF.

Kevin goes through the Week 3 Sunday slate of games with all the advanced stats, adjusted scores and big-picture takeaways.

Kevin goes through all the advanced stats and grades for Browns-Steelers, plus a few bets he likes for this Sunday's action.

Kevin goes through all the grading and advanced stats for the two MNF games and what it means for the teams going forward.

Kevin goes over all the relevant numbers and grades from the matchup of the Chiefs and Chargers.

Kevin breaks down MNF and why Mahomes' grading is relatively low.

Kevin goes through the Week 1 slate with all the advanced stats and proprietary numbers you need to know.

Kevin goes through all the relevant numbers for the first game of the season, why to love the Bills start, but also not go overboard with enthusiasm.

Kevin talks through his Bayesian QB rankings, who is undervalued and how it differs from other rankings out there. Plus, his numbers-based best bets for Week 1 and a breakdown of the Russell Wilson extension

Kevin breaks down some of the more notable roster cuts, trades among all 32 teams, and Jimmy Garoppolo staying in San Francisco for atleast another season as the 9ers' backup. 

Kevin goes through every game from the final preseason week, plus discusses the biggest stories around the NFL.

Kevin reviews are the relevant stats from the second week of the NFL preseason.

00:00 Intro
01:25 Life in the Silicon Valley
03:27 Preseason Week 2 Review Setup
04:15 Does the preseason matter
08:18 Young quarterback performances: Pickett, Willis, Skylar Thompson, etc
20:28 Why Pickett should start Week 1
23:45 Running back review
30:22 Wide receiver review
39:25 Tight end review

Kevin talks with professional bettor and BetStamp co-founder Rob Pizzola about his business endeavors and takes on teams that are under- and overvalued in 2022.

0:00 Intro
02:49 What is a professional sports bettor? Why have a public presence
14:18 What is betstamp?
33:25 Does a positive record mean someone is a good bettor?
40:38 2022 Betting Preview
47:10 High on the Eagles
54:15 Low on the Bears
57:44 High on the Saints
1:04:35 Low on the Giants
1:10:24 Figuring out the Browns
1:14:25 Figuring out the Patriots
1:17:50 Figuring out the Cardinals
1:21:50 Figuring out the 49ers

Kevin discusses the implications of the Watson settlement.

Kevin goes through what matter from Week 1 of the preseason, especially in terms of depth charts and young QB play.

Kevin and Josh give their boldest, realistic predictions for the 2022 NFL season. Plus, a few of Hard Knock Ep 1 and the Dan Campbell experience.

Kevin goes through the lookahead betting lines to quantitatively rank NFL teams and find value where the market currently doesn't see it. Plus, talk about Kareem Hunt's contract and what it says about the player empowerment era in the NFL.

Kevin details why the Dolphins fine was significant and what to pay attention in training camp this week and beyond.

Kevin discusses the why of the Watson decision whether it will be appealed and what it means for the Browns' season. Plus, separating the signal and noise in training camp news.

Josh Hermsmeyer of 538 joins Kevin to opine on the coaches/executive quarterback rankings released in a recent article and go pick-by-pick giving their own rankings and rationales, plus what a strict analytical model predicts for the 2022 season.

Kevin breaks down the details of the Kyler Murray contract and how good he's been so far in his career and what to expect going forward. Plus, a look at the best PFF research that came out this offseason.