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Die ekonomie minuut

Die ekonomie minuut

By Waldo Krugell

Luister na stukkies ekonomiese nuus en kommentaar.
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Wat die repokoersbesluit beteken

Wat die repokoersbesluit beteken

Die Monetêre Beleidskomitee het gister aangekondig dat die repokoers onveranderd bly. Hulle het ʼn aantal redes aangevoer hoekom daar steeds opwaartse druk op pryse is, vanaf die wisselvallige wisselkoers tot die impak van El Nino op voedselpryse. Hulle is nog nie oortuig dat die inflasiekoers aan die afneem is nie.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 28, 202401:51
What the repo rate decision means

What the repo rate decision means

The Monetary Policy Committee announced yesterday that the repo rate remains unchanged. They cited a number of reasons why there is still upward pressure on prices, from the volatile exchange rate to the impact of El Nino on food prices. They are not yet convinced that the inflation rate is trending downward.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 28, 202401:53
Beleef ons dan nie stagflasie nie?

Beleef ons dan nie stagflasie nie?

Met die Monetêre Beleidskomitee se vergadering in gedagte is die debat op X, of te wel Twitter, wat help die hoë rentekoerse onder hierdie omstandighede? Kan hulle nie sien Suid-Afrika lyk soos ʼn geval van stagflasie nie?

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 27, 202402:03
Aren't we experiencing stagflation?

Aren't we experiencing stagflation?

With the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in mind, the debate on X, or rather Twitter, is what good are high interest rates under these circumstances? Can't they see that South Africa looks like a case of stagflation?

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Mar 27, 202402:06
Wat van onderliggende inflasie druk?

Wat van onderliggende inflasie druk?

Die Reserwebank se Monetêre Beleidskomitee vergader hierdie week vir ʼn repokoersbesluit. Ons hoor dat inflasie hardnekkig hoog bly, maar wat is tydelike veranderings en wat is onderliggende druk?

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 26, 202401:58
What about underlying inflationary pressure?

What about underlying inflationary pressure?

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meets this week for a repo rate decision. We hear that inflation remains stubbornly high, but what are temporary changes and what are underlying pressures?

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 26, 202401:54
'n Paar positiewe dinge oor die SA ekonomie

'n Paar positiewe dinge oor die SA ekonomie

Die Bank of America en die IMF het die afgelope week ʼn paar positiewe dinge oor ons ekonomie te sê gehad. As jy wonder wat dit is, hier volg ʼn kortlys van dinge om oor positief te wees.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 25, 202402:01
A few positive things about the SA economy

A few positive things about the SA economy

The Bank of America and the IMF had some positive things to say about our economy this past week. If you're wondering what it is, here's a short list of things to be positive about.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Mar 25, 202401:59
Koop geld geluk?

Koop geld geluk?

Woensdag was die Verenigde Nasies se World Happiness Day. Hulle sê daar is ʼn behoefte aan ʼn meer inklusiewe, gelyke en gebalanseerde benadering tot ekonomiese groei wat volhoubare ontwikkeling, die vermindering van armoede en welstand  van mense bevorder. Sogenaamde happiness economics is iets wat ekonome al lank bestudeer en daar is lesse te leer.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 22, 202401:57
Does money buy happiness?

Does money buy happiness?

Wednesday was the United Nations' World Happiness Day. They say there is a need for a more inclusive, equal and balanced approach to economic growth that promotes sustainable development, the reduction of poverty and the well-being of people. So-called happiness economics is something that economists have been studying for a long time and there are lessons to be learned.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 22, 202401:54
Op Menseregtedag

Op Menseregtedag

Met Menseregtedag in gedagte het ek soos gewoonlik gedink, wat kan ekonome hieroor sê? Eintlik sommer baie. Om menseregte te realiseer gaan oor ekonomiese ontwikkeling en hoe die gemeenskap kies om ons skaars hulpbronne te gebruik, maar daar is nog baie ander navorsing.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 21, 202401:41
On Human Rights Day

On Human Rights Day

With Human Rights Day in mind I thought, as usual, what can economists say about this? Actually, quite a lot. Realizing human rights is about economic development and how society chooses to use our scarce resources, but there is a lot of other research as well.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 21, 202401:43
Vandag se inflasiesyfers

Vandag se inflasiesyfers

Statistieke Suid-Afrika maak vandag Februariemaand se verbruikersprys inflasiesyfer bekend en ekonome verwag dat inflasie weer ʼn bietjie hoër gaan wees. Dit kan beteken dat daardie repokoersverlaging waarop ons almal hoop nog bietjie langer uitgestel word.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 20, 202402:01
Today's inflation figures

Today's inflation figures

Statistics South Africa will announce February's consumer price inflation figure later today and economists expect inflation to be higher again. This could mean that repo rate cut we are all hoping for is delayed a little longer.

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Mar 20, 202401:58
Wisselkoers spekulasie

Wisselkoers spekulasie

Om die rand-dollar wisselkoers te voorspel is iets wat ekonome doen sodat weervoorspellers beter kan voel oor hulle werk. Die afgelope week het die rand effens sterker verhandel teen die dollar, hoewel die dollar self sterker was teen ander geldeenhede. Baie mense wonder of daar iewers ʼn sameswering is. Die beter maatstaf is om te kyk na die spekulatiewe posisies in termynkontrakte.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 19, 202401:23
Exchange rate speculation

Exchange rate speculation

Forecasting the rand-dollar exchange rate is something economists do so that weather forecasters can feel better about their jobs. In the past week, the rand traded slightly stronger against the dollar, although the dollar itself was stronger against other currencies. Many people wonder if there is a conspiracy somewhere. The better measure is to look at the speculative positions in futures contracts.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 19, 202401:20
Wat is die prys van geloofwaardigheid?

Wat is die prys van geloofwaardigheid?

Die Minister van Finansies het verlede week aangekondig dat die sogenaamde Social Relief of Distress toelaag, die R350 Covid toelaag verhoog word tot R370 per maand. Dit is ʼn jammerte vir ons geloof in die Minister se onafhanklikheid van politieke druk.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 18, 202401:54
What is the price of credibility?

What is the price of credibility?

The Minister of Finance announced last week that the so-called Social Relief of Distress grant, the R350 Covid grant will be increased to R370 per month. It is a pity for our perception of Minister's independence from political pressure.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Mar 18, 202401:54
Shapies, PayShap

Shapies, PayShap

Mense dink baie keer dat innovasie in die bankwese daar ver is en moeilik om te verstaan, soos Bitcoin, maar hierdie maand vier PayShap sy eerste bestaansjaar en dit is ʼn groot sukses.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 15, 202401:41
Shap shap, PayShap

Shap shap, PayShap

People often think that innovation in banking happens far away and is difficult to understand, like Bitcoin, but this month PayShap celebrates its first anniversary and it is a great success.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 15, 202401:43
Kunsmatige intelligensie ekonome

Kunsmatige intelligensie ekonome

Dit voel vir my ek het deesdae min gesprekke waar kunsmatige intelligensie, of sommer Chat, nie ter sprake kom nie. Die wêreld van ekonome en die werk van ekonome word al hoe meer direk geraak.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 14, 202401:53
Those AI economists

Those AI economists

These days it feels like I have very few conversations where artificial intelligence, or simply Chat, does not come up. The world of economists and the work of economists is more and more directly affected.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.


Mar 14, 202401:53
Watter raad kan ons vir beleidmakers gee?

Watter raad kan ons vir beleidmakers gee?

Professors en kommentators sê gereeld dat ekonomiese hervormings dringend nodig is. Maar het ons beleidmakers soos die Reserwebank, Tesourie, die Departement van Handel en Nywerheid, of selfs die President, nog raad nodig? Ek was gister by ʼn LEAP werkswinkel in Stellenbosch oor die invloed wat ekonomiese geskiedenis navorsing op beleid kan hê en daar wat ʼn hele paar interessante perspektiewe.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 13, 202402:12
What advice can we give to policymakers?

What advice can we give to policymakers?

Professors and commentators often say that economic reforms are urgently needed. But do our policy makers such as the Reserve Bank, Treasury, the Department of Trade and Industry, or even the President, need more advice? Yesterday I was at a LEAP workshop in Stellenbosch on the influence that economic history research can have on policy and there were quite a few interesting perspectives.

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Mar 13, 202402:15
Kan Taylor Swift se toer ons ekonomiese groei bevorder?

Kan Taylor Swift se toer ons ekonomiese groei bevorder?

Groei vooruitskattings vir die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie is maar redelik gedemp en mens wonder of Taylor Swift nie dalk die oplossing vir ons probleem is nie. Haar Eras toer is binnekort in Singapoer en dit het groeivooruitskattings daar verhoog van 2,5% tot 2,9% vir die eerste drie maande van die jaar.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 12, 202402:09
Can Taylor Swift's tour come boost our economic growth?

Can Taylor Swift's tour come boost our economic growth?

Growth forecasts for the South African economy are quite muted and one wonders if Taylor Swift might not be the solution to our problem. Her Eras tour will be in Singapore soon and this has raised growth forecasts there from 2.5% to 2.9% for the first three months of the year.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 12, 202402:06
Wat wys die aanwysers?

Wat wys die aanwysers?

Ek het so deur die loop van verlede week ʼn paar belangrike aanwysers bespreek. Die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie het in die vierde kwartaal van verlede jaar net net ʼn resessie vermy, maar in die eerste kwartaal van hierdie jaar lyk dinge nie veel beter nie en sakevertroue is gedemp. Daar was darem nog ʼn paar stukkies nuus wat dinge toelig.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 11, 202402:05
What do the indicators show?

What do the indicators show?

Over last week, I discussed a few important indicators. The South African economy narrowly avoided a recession in the fourth quarter of last year, but in the first quarter of this year things don't look much better and business confidence is low. And there are a few more pieces of news that clarify things.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Mar 11, 202402:01
Nie 'n markte verslag nie

Nie 'n markte verslag nie

Hierdie is nie ʼn markteverslag nie, maar af en toe duik daar iets op in die markte waaroor ek moet praat. Die goudprys is op ʼn rekord hoogtepunt en niemand is mooi seker hoekom nie.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 08, 202401:38
Not a markets report

Not a markets report

This is not a market report, but every now and then something pops up in the markets that I have to talk about. The gold price is at a record high and no one is quite sure why.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 08, 202401:38
Sakevertroue val nog verder

Sakevertroue val nog verder

RMB en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se Sakevertroue indeks vir die eerste kwartaal is gister bekend gemaak en sakevertroue is nog laer as einde verlede jaar. Sewe uit elke tien deelnemers aan die opname is nie tevrede met besigheidstoestande nie.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 07, 202401:51
Business confidence falls even lower

Business confidence falls even lower

RMB and the Bureau of Economic Research's Business Confidence Index number for the first quarter was announced yesterday and business confidence is even lower than at the end of last year. Seven out of ten survey participants are unsatisfied with business conditions.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 07, 202401:50
Ons is in 'n lae-groei lokval

Ons is in 'n lae-groei lokval

Die vierde kwartaal van 2023 se BBP en ekonomiese groei syfers is gister bekend gemaak. Die ekonomie het met net 0,1% gegroei. Daar was dus nie ʼn resessie aan die einde van verlede jaar nie, maar ʼn groeikoers van 0,6% vir die hele jaar is heeltemal te laag.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 06, 202402:27
We are in a low-growth trap

We are in a low-growth trap

The fourth quarter of 2023's GDP and economic growth figures were announced yesterday. The economy grew by just 0.1%. That means we narrowly missed falling into a recession at the end of last year, but a growth rate of 0.6% for the whole year is far too low.

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Mar 06, 202402:23
Jy is wat jy kan bekostig om te eet

Jy is wat jy kan bekostig om te eet

Gister was wêreld-obesiteitsdag en kundiges in die velde van gesondheid en voeding het ons opnuut bewus gemaak van die gevare en koste van obesiteit vir individue en die gemeenskap. Maar moet nie ʼn fout maak nie, ekonome het ook iets hieroor te sê.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 05, 202402:01
You are what you can afford to eat

You are what you can afford to eat

Yesterday was World Obesity Day and experts in the fields of health and nutrition made us aware of the dangers and costs of obesity for individuals and society. But make no mistake, economists also have something to say about this.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 05, 202402:01
Wat wys die aanwysers?

Wat wys die aanwysers?

Verlede week is daar ʼn hand vol aanwysers bekend gemaak waarop mens ʼn oog moet hou. Dit sluit in Absa en die Buro se Aankopebestuurdersindeks, asook nuwe voertuigverkope in Februarie. Daar was ook handelsbalanssyfers en kredietverlening aan die privaatsektor.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 04, 202402:02
What do the indicators show?

What do the indicators show?

Last week, a handful of indicators were announced that one should keep an eye on. This includes Absa and the Bureau's Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as new vehicle sales in February. There were also trade balance figures and private sector credit extension.

This episode is supported by the Bureau for Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Mar 04, 202401:57
PPI inflasie is effens hoër

PPI inflasie is effens hoër

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Januarie maand se produksieprysindekssyfer bekend gemaak. Produsenteprysinflasie het gestyg vanaf 4% in Desember tot 4,7% in Januarie. Die PPI mandjie en gewigte is aangepas vir finale en intermediêre vervaardigde produkte.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Mar 01, 202402:15
PPI inflation slightly higher

PPI inflation slightly higher

Yesterday, Statistics South Africa released January's production price index figure. Producer price inflation rose from 4% in December to 4.7% in January. The PPI basket and weights were adjusted for final and intermediate manufactured products.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mar 01, 202402:17
Moenie sommer die teikenband verander nie

Moenie sommer die teikenband verander nie

Tussen deur al die besonderhede van die Begroting het die Tesourie se Makro-ekonomiese Beleidsoorsig verlede week laat val dat hulle daarna kyk om Suid-Afrika se inflasiemikpunt in lyn te bring met die van ons eweknieë en handelsvennote. Val dit in die kategorie van goeie idee, maar swak plan?

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Feb 29, 202402:20
Don't change the target band

Don't change the target band

Amongst all the details of the Budget, the Treasury's Macroeconomic Policy Review mentioned last week that they are looking at aligning South Africa's inflation target with that of our peers and trading partners. Does this fall into the category of good idea but bad plan?

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Feb 29, 202402:20
Die geloofwaardigheid van "tough love"

Die geloofwaardigheid van "tough love"

Die graderingsagenskap, Fitch, het hierdie week gesê dat die belastinginkomste waarvoor die regering begroot optimisties is en dat die Minister moes begroot vir ʼn reddingsboei aan Transnet.  Die vraag is nie soseer of hulle reg is nie, maar of ons bekommerd moet wees?

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Feb 28, 202401:57
The credibility of tough love

The credibility of tough love

The ratings agency Fitch said this week that the tax revenue budgeted for by the government is optimistic and that the Minister should have budgeted for a bailout for Transnet. The question is not so much whether they are right, but whether we should be worried.

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Feb 28, 202401:53
Moet 'n verkiesingsmanifes 'n vrywaringsklousule hê?

Moet 'n verkiesingsmanifes 'n vrywaringsklousule hê?

Ek het gister gesê dat mens jou eerder nie te veel moet steur aan politici se uitsprake kort voor ʼn verkiesing nie, maar die regering se planne en die ANC se beloftes is so uiteenlopend dat dit nie anders kan as om nog eleidsonsekerheid te skep nie.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Feb 27, 202402:31
Should election manifestos come with a disclaimer?

Should election manifestos come with a disclaimer?

Yesterday I said that one should not pay too much attention to politicians' statements shortly before an election, but the government's plans and the ANC's promises are so divergent that it cannot help but create more policy uncertainty.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Feb 27, 202402:22
Fiskale reels en beleidsonsekerheid

Fiskale reels en beleidsonsekerheid

Wat is beleidsonsekerheid? Dit is onsekerheid oor beleid of die gevolge van beleid. Dit word gereeld in die media genoem, dit is die fokus van ʼn indeks wat ek en Prof Raymond Parsons saamstel en daar is ongelukkig baie voorbeelde daarvan in Suid-Afrika.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Feb 26, 202401:44
Fiscal rules and policy uncertainty

Fiscal rules and policy uncertainty

What is policy uncertainty? Simply put, it is uncertainty about policy or the consequences of policy. This is often mentioned in the media, it is the focus of an index that Prof Raymond Parsons and I compile and unfortunately there are many examples of it in South Africa.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Feb 26, 202401:46
Aanwysers

Aanwysers

Met al die gepraat oor die Begrotingsrede het ʼn paar ander aanwysers verby geglip en ek wil vandag vertel wat het gebeur met werkloosheid in die vierde kwartaal van 2023 en verbruikersprysinflasie in Januariemaand.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Feb 23, 202402:11
Indicators

Indicators

With all the talk about the Budget Speech, a few other indicators slipped by and today I want to share what happened to unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2023 and consumer price inflation in January.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Feb 23, 202402:06