Die ekonomie minuut

Statistieke Suid-Afrika maak more Maartmaand se verbruikersprys inflasiesyfer bekend en dit word fyn dopgehou deur ekonome. Die hoop is dat Februarie maand se 5,6% die hoogste punt vir die jaar sou wees en dat die inflasiekoers nou weer stadigaan sal afneem. Die makro-syfer steek egter ʼn belangrike storie weg. Die Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group se Household Affordability Index wys dat veral huishoudings wat die minimumloon kry baie swaar getref word deur inflasie.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Statistics South Africa will announce March's consumer price inflation figure tomorrow and it will be closely watched by economists. The hope is that February's 5.6% would be the highest point for the year and that the inflation rate will now slowly decrease again. However, the macro figure hides an important story. The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group's Household Affordability Index shows that especially households that receive the minimum wage are hit very hard by inflation.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Om jou vinger op die pols van die ekonomie te hou beteken dat mens teenstellende aanwysers moet probeer interpreteer. Hier is ʼn kort opsomming van onlangse datapunte.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Keeping your finger on the pulse of the economy often means trying to interpret conflicting indicators. Here is a brief summary of recent data points.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Om ʼn maatskappy se hoof uitvoerende beampte te wees is nie maklike werk nie. Die geld is goed, maar die eise is baie. Deesdae moet hulle ook kyk na ESG doelwitte, of te wel, Environmental, Social en Governance doewitte. Hulle moet fokus op “soft skills” en interpersoonlike vaardighede. Die vraag is het die tipe CEO verander oor tyd? Nuwe navorsing uit die VSA gee ʼn paar leidrade.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Being a company's chief executive officer is not an easy job. The money is good, but the demands are many. Nowadays, they also have to look at ESG goals, or rather, Environmental, Social and Governance goals. They must focus on "soft skills" and interpersonal skills. The question is, has the type of CEO changed over time? New research from the USA gives some clues.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Vandag is die laaste dag van die e-tol stelsel in Gauteng. Dit is gelyk ʼn oorwinning en ʼn terugslag. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Today is the last day of the e-toll system in Gauteng. It is equally a victory and a setback.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Die Begrotingsrede is al vergete, en ons is almal baie meer bekommerd oor rentekoerse, maar Suid-Afrika se fiskale uitdagings is nog daar. Ons weet dat die regering se groot en groeiende loonrekening ʼn bedreiging inhou vir die volhoubaarheid van die staatsfinansies en vanaf 1 April het staatsamptenare se salarisse met 4,7% gestyg. Dit klink beskeie, maar dit is nog vet in die vuur.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

The Budget Speech has been forgotten, and we are all much more concerned about interest rates, but South Africa's fiscal challenges are still there. We know that the government's large and growing wage bill poses a threat to the sustainability of the public finances and from 1 April civil servants' salaries rose by 4.7%. It sounds modest, but it adds fat to the fire.

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Zimbabwe se nuwe geldeenheid wat deur goud gerugsteun word is oral in die nuus. Hulle inflasiekoers staan op 55% en die RTGS Zim dollar het al driekwart van sy waarde verloor hierdie jaar. Mens hoop van harte dat die sogenaamde ZiG of te wel Zimbabwe Goud, ekonomiese stabiliteit kan bring. Ongelukkig is daar baie redes om skepties te wees.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Zimbabwe's new gold-backed currency is all over the news. Their inflation rate stands at 55% and the RTGS Zim dollar has already lost three quarters of its value this year. One sincerely hopes that the so-called ZiG or rather Zimbabwe Gold, can bring economic stability. Unfortunately, there are many reasons to be sceptical.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Sjokoladeliefhebbers moet vinnig voorraad aanvul, want die prys van sjokolade gaan vanjaar nog verder styg. Die hoofbestanddeel van sjokolade is kakao en dit lyk of wêreldproduksie vanjaar byna 11% laer gaan wees. Die prys het al verdubbel sedert die begin van die jaar. Dit is ʼn klassieke storie van vraag en aanbod.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Chocolate lovers need to stock up fast, because the price of chocolate is set to rise even further this year. The main ingredient of chocolate is cocoa and it looks like world production will be almost 11% lower this year. The price has already doubled since the beginning of the year. It is a classic story of supply and demand.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Die Ekonomie Minuut kan nie hierdie week die nuus so mooi volg nie want ek is met vakansie, maar ek het ʼn paar episodes vooraf opgeneem. ʼn Aanwyser wat verlede week verby geglip het was die vierde kwartaal van verlede jaar se kwartaallikse opname van indiensname.

The Economics Minute cannot follow the news this week since I am on holiday, but I have recorded a few episodes in advance.An indicator that slipped by last week was the fourth quarter of last year's quarterly survey of employment.

Die Ekonomie Minuut kan nie hierdie week die nuus so mooi volg nie want ek is met vakansie, maar ek het ʼn paar episodes vooraf opgeneem. Ekonome by PWC het verlede week ʼn nuwe Produktiwiteit Potensiaal Indeks bekend gestel. Dit sluit die gewone maatstawwe soos menslike kapitaal, fisiese kapitaal en innovasie in, maar voeg sosiale kapitaal, natuurlike kapitaal en instellings by.

The Economics Minute cannot follow the news this week since I am on holiday, but I have recorded a few episodes in advance. Economists at PWC launched a new Productivity Potential Index last week. It includes the usual measures such as human capital, physical capital and innovation, but adds social capital, natural capital and institutions.

Ek is met vakansie, maar die NWU Sakeskool se Beleidsonsekerheidindeks word vandag bekend gemaak en onsekerheid het effens toegeneem in die eerste kwartaal. Dit het baie te make met die verkiesing.

I am on holiday, but the NWU Business School's Policy Uncertainty Index is published today and uncertainty increased slightly in the first quarter. It has a lot to do with the election.

Die Monetêre Beleidskomitee het gister aangekondig dat die repokoers onveranderd bly. Hulle het ʼn aantal redes aangevoer hoekom daar steeds opwaartse druk op pryse is, vanaf die wisselvallige wisselkoers tot die impak van El Nino op voedselpryse. Hulle is nog nie oortuig dat die inflasiekoers aan die afneem is nie.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The Monetary Policy Committee announced yesterday that the repo rate remains unchanged. They cited a number of reasons why there is still upward pressure on prices, from the volatile exchange rate to the impact of El Nino on food prices. They are not yet convinced that the inflation rate is trending downward.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Met die Monetêre Beleidskomitee se vergadering in gedagte is die debat op X, of te wel Twitter, wat help die hoë rentekoerse onder hierdie omstandighede? Kan hulle nie sien Suid-Afrika lyk soos ʼn geval van stagflasie nie?

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

With the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in mind, the debate on X, or rather Twitter, is what good are high interest rates under these circumstances? Can't they see that South Africa looks like a case of stagflation?

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Die Reserwebank se Monetêre Beleidskomitee vergader hierdie week vir ʼn repokoersbesluit. Ons hoor dat inflasie hardnekkig hoog bly, maar wat is tydelike veranderings en wat is onderliggende druk?

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meets this week for a repo rate decision. We hear that inflation remains stubbornly high, but what are temporary changes and what are underlying pressures?

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Die Bank of America en die IMF het die afgelope week ʼn paar positiewe dinge oor ons ekonomie te sê gehad. As jy wonder wat dit is, hier volg ʼn kortlys van dinge om oor positief te wees.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

The Bank of America and the IMF had some positive things to say about our economy this past week. If you're wondering what it is, here's a short list of things to be positive about.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Woensdag was die Verenigde Nasies se World Happiness Day. Hulle sê daar is ʼn behoefte aan ʼn meer inklusiewe, gelyke en gebalanseerde benadering tot ekonomiese groei wat volhoubare ontwikkeling, die vermindering van armoede en welstand  van mense bevorder. Sogenaamde happiness economics is iets wat ekonome al lank bestudeer en daar is lesse te leer.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Wednesday was the United Nations' World Happiness Day. They say there is a need for a more inclusive, equal and balanced approach to economic growth that promotes sustainable development, the reduction of poverty and the well-being of people. So-called happiness economics is something that economists have been studying for a long time and there are lessons to be learned.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Met Menseregtedag in gedagte het ek soos gewoonlik gedink, wat kan ekonome hieroor sê? Eintlik sommer baie. Om menseregte te realiseer gaan oor ekonomiese ontwikkeling en hoe die gemeenskap kies om ons skaars hulpbronne te gebruik, maar daar is nog baie ander navorsing.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

With Human Rights Day in mind I thought, as usual, what can economists say about this? Actually, quite a lot. Realizing human rights is about economic development and how society chooses to use our scarce resources, but there is a lot of other research as well.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Statistieke Suid-Afrika maak vandag Februariemaand se verbruikersprys inflasiesyfer bekend en ekonome verwag dat inflasie weer ʼn bietjie hoër gaan wees. Dit kan beteken dat daardie repokoersverlaging waarop ons almal hoop nog bietjie langer uitgestel word.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Statistics South Africa will announce February's consumer price inflation figure later today and economists expect inflation to be higher again. This could mean that repo rate cut we are all hoping for is delayed a little longer.

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Om die rand-dollar wisselkoers te voorspel is iets wat ekonome doen sodat weervoorspellers beter kan voel oor hulle werk. Die afgelope week het die rand effens sterker verhandel teen die dollar, hoewel die dollar self sterker was teen ander geldeenhede. Baie mense wonder of daar iewers ʼn sameswering is. Die beter maatstaf is om te kyk na die spekulatiewe posisies in termynkontrakte.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Forecasting the rand-dollar exchange rate is something economists do so that weather forecasters can feel better about their jobs. In the past week, the rand traded slightly stronger against the dollar, although the dollar itself was stronger against other currencies. Many people wonder if there is a conspiracy somewhere. The better measure is to look at the speculative positions in futures contracts.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Die Minister van Finansies het verlede week aangekondig dat die sogenaamde Social Relief of Distress toelaag, die R350 Covid toelaag verhoog word tot R370 per maand. Dit is ʼn jammerte vir ons geloof in die Minister se onafhanklikheid van politieke druk.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

The Minister of Finance announced last week that the so-called Social Relief of Distress grant, the R350 Covid grant will be increased to R370 per month. It is a pity for our perception of Minister's independence from political pressure.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Mense dink baie keer dat innovasie in die bankwese daar ver is en moeilik om te verstaan, soos Bitcoin, maar hierdie maand vier PayShap sy eerste bestaansjaar en dit is ʼn groot sukses.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

People often think that innovation in banking happens far away and is difficult to understand, like Bitcoin, but this month PayShap celebrates its first anniversary and it is a great success.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Dit voel vir my ek het deesdae min gesprekke waar kunsmatige intelligensie, of sommer Chat, nie ter sprake kom nie. Die wêreld van ekonome en die werk van ekonome word al hoe meer direk geraak.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

These days it feels like I have very few conversations where artificial intelligence, or simply Chat, does not come up. The world of economists and the work of economists is more and more directly affected.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Professors en kommentators sê gereeld dat ekonomiese hervormings dringend nodig is. Maar het ons beleidmakers soos die Reserwebank, Tesourie, die Departement van Handel en Nywerheid, of selfs die President, nog raad nodig? Ek was gister by ʼn LEAP werkswinkel in Stellenbosch oor die invloed wat ekonomiese geskiedenis navorsing op beleid kan hê en daar wat ʼn hele paar interessante perspektiewe.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Professors and commentators often say that economic reforms are urgently needed. But do our policy makers such as the Reserve Bank, Treasury, the Department of Trade and Industry, or even the President, need more advice? Yesterday I was at a LEAP workshop in Stellenbosch on the influence that economic history research can have on policy and there were quite a few interesting perspectives.

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Groei vooruitskattings vir die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie is maar redelik gedemp en mens wonder of Taylor Swift nie dalk die oplossing vir ons probleem is nie. Haar Eras toer is binnekort in Singapoer en dit het groeivooruitskattings daar verhoog van 2,5% tot 2,9% vir die eerste drie maande van die jaar.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Growth forecasts for the South African economy are quite muted and one wonders if Taylor Swift might not be the solution to our problem. Her Eras tour will be in Singapore soon and this has raised growth forecasts there from 2.5% to 2.9% for the first three months of the year.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ek het so deur die loop van verlede week ʼn paar belangrike aanwysers bespreek. Die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie het in die vierde kwartaal van verlede jaar net net ʼn resessie vermy, maar in die eerste kwartaal van hierdie jaar lyk dinge nie veel beter nie en sakevertroue is gedemp. Daar was darem nog ʼn paar stukkies nuus wat dinge toelig.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Over last week, I discussed a few important indicators. The South African economy narrowly avoided a recession in the fourth quarter of last year, but in the first quarter of this year things don't look much better and business confidence is low. And there are a few more pieces of news that clarify things.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.