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4Sight Chats

4Sight Chats

By Alex Fergnani

The 4Sight Chats is a series of conversations with leading figures in the field of futures and foresight, as well as scholars and practitioners with a domain expertise that is relevant to those who study, create, design, and facilitate the futures.
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Marcus Anthony: Culture Wars, Integrated Intelligence, Harmonic Circles - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 5

4Sight Chats

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Dennis Tourish: The Present and Future(s) of Management Studies in Crisis- 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep.6
Dennis Tourish: The Present and Future(s) of Management Studies in Crisis- 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep.6
Dennis Tourish is a professor of leadership and organization studies at the University of Sussex Business School. Alex Fergnani is the co-founder and head of foresight at the Ideactio Centre for Foresight Research and Consulting (Singapore)   Available in video format:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bD5kuYFHg0w CHAT OUTLINE:  [02:35] Some statistics about the crisis in management studies  [05:20] Summary of the many interlinked problems behind the crisis in management studies (overemphasis of theory, questionable research practices, lack of relevant research, overemphasis of journals' impact factors, etc.)  [12:08] Taking a complexity view of the issue, what is/are the problem(s) that we absolutely have to address first?  [15:40] Why we are underestimating our agency to solve the problem  [18:20] Why referring to scientific publications by using the phrase “playing the game”  is deleterious  [20:20] Taking a (simplified) foresight view of the issue, what is the best case future scenario and the worst case future scenario of management studies? [24:06] Possible solutions, e.g., a shorter review process, grant lottery for researchers, etc.  [28:57] Research malpractice, e.g.,  only positive results are shown, tautological hypotheses, etc.  [31:37] The necessity of promoting abductive research and case studies  [33:38] P-hacking and the crisis of reproducibility  [34:26] How to address the problem collectively  [39;28] Resistance to change  [42:37] Why and how to do more relevant management research?  [48:02] What has recently changed in the field about the problem   MENTIONED SOURCES:  Tourish (2019). Management Studies in Crisis: Fraud, Deception and Meaningless Research: https://www.amazon.com/Management-Studies-Crisis-Deception-Meaningless-ebook/dp/B07S7DWWDB/ref=sr_1_2?crid=DZBBU4AVB09C&keywords=dennis+tourish&qid=1668507482&sprefix=dennis+tourish%2Caps%2C141&sr=8-2  Tourish (2020).The Triumph of Nonsense in Management Studies: https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/amle.2019.0255  Haley et al. (2022). In Search of Scholarly Impact (AMLE Editorial): https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/amle.2022.0327  Sharma et al (2022). Cocreating Forward: How Researchers and Managers Can Address Problems Together: https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/amle.2021.0233  Ramani et al. (2022). Defining, Measuring, and Rewarding Scholarly Impact: Mind the Level of Analysis: https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/amle.2021.0177  Fergnani & Chermack (2021). The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ffo2.61  Responsible Research In Business and Management network: https://www.rrbm.network    Support Alex's videos: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani  Audio by Bensound
51:20
November 16, 2022
Marcus Anthony: Culture Wars, Integrated Intelligence, Harmonic Circles - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 5
Marcus Anthony: Culture Wars, Integrated Intelligence, Harmonic Circles - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 5
Marcus is Associate Professor at the Beijing Institute of Technology in Zhuhai, China. Alex is PhD Candidate at NUS Business School, Singapore.   Also available in video format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_Ug2Frhcco
01:07:14
September 23, 2022
Gerard Hodgkinson: Emotions in Strategic Decisions, Critical Realism - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 4
Gerard Hodgkinson: Emotions in Strategic Decisions, Critical Realism - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 4
Gerard is Vice Dean for Research of the Faculty of Humanities and Professor of Strategic Management and Behavioural Science at Alliance Manchester Business School. Alex is PhD Candidate at NUS Business School, Singapore.  Available in video format:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqvNxpeG90k Chat outline:  -The role of emotions in foresight and strategic decision making  -How to take emotions into account as foresight practitioners (both in others and ourselves)  -Risks as feelings  -The science-practice divide  -Critical realism as a philosophical framework to study futures and foresight   MENTIONED REFERENCES:  Hodgkinson and Wright (2002). Confronting Strategic Inertia in a Top Management Team: Learning from Failure: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0170840602236014  David Teece’s dynamic capabilities framework: https://www.davidjteece.com/dynamic-capabilities  Kahneman (2013). Thinking, Fast and Slow: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555  Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee, and Welch (2001). Risks as feelings: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11316014/  Evans (2008). Dual-processing accounts of reasoning judgment, and social cognition: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18154502/  Evans and Stanovich  (2013). Dual-process theories of higher cognition advancing the debate: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691612460685  Anderson, Herriot and Hodgkinson (2001). The practitioner–researcher divide in Industrial, Work and Organizational (IWO) psychology: Where are we now, and where do we go from here?: https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2002-10499-002  Fergnani and Chermack (2021). The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight and what to do about it: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ffo2.61  Hodgkinson (2021). Why appealing to the virtues of scientific theory (and method) is necessary but insufficient for effecting systemic change: A commentary on Fergnani & Chermack 2021: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ffo2.79  Hodgkinson and Healey (2008). Toward a (Pragmatic) Science of Strategic Intervention: Design Propositions for Scenario Planning: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0170840607088022  To know more about Gerard, see: https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/gerard.hodgkinson.html  Support Alex's videos: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani  Audio by Bensound
01:19:17
May 27, 2022
BONUS: "Using Scenarios" Book Launch Interview with Thomas Chermack
BONUS: "Using Scenarios" Book Launch Interview with Thomas Chermack
This conversation is an interview between Tom Chermack and Alex Fergnani about Tom's latest book, "Using Scenarios". Tom is a Professor in organizational learning, performance and change at Colorado State University. Alex is a PhD Candidate at NUS Business School.     CHAT OUTLINE:  -Motivation behind writing the book  -How to choose which "after scenarios" method to use  -Translating scenarios into financials  -Responding to potential criticism  -The rationale behind the design of the book cover The conversation is also available in video format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgmfkHtGURk "Using Scenarios: Scenario Planning for Improving Organizations" can be found at: https://www.amazon.com/Using-Scenarios-Scenario-Improving-Organizations/dp/1523092882  Tom's previous book on scenario planning, "Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios" can be found at: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00F9FMYGO/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i1 You can support Alex's podcast here: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani
23:18
May 09, 2022
Tom Lombardo: Science Fiction, Future Consciousness, and the Future(s) - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 3
Tom Lombardo: Science Fiction, Future Consciousness, and the Future(s) - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 3
The 3rd episode of the 2nd season of the 4Sight Chats Series, with Thomas (Tom) Lombardo. Tom is s the Director of the Center for Future Consciousness, Editor of Future Consciousness Insights, and Professor Emeritus and Retired Faculty Chair of Psychology, Philosophy, and the Future at Rio Salado College. Alex is PhD candidate at NUS Business School (Singapore), and Associate Editor of the journal "World Futures Review".    Chat Outline:   -Using science fiction as a form of foresight and its challenges  -What is future consciousness and why it’s important  -Measuring the various dimensions of future consciousness  -The evolutionary character of future consciousness: purposeful evolution  -Future consciousness to transcend the modern-postmodern divide  -Tom’s two new books on science fiction    Available in audio-only podcast format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc1oO2Z8Odw MENTIONED REFERENCES   Alex’s article on the 6 archetypes framework: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328720301336  Article on futures consciousness (not future consciousness): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328717301611#:~:text=Johan%20Galtung%20defines%20future%20consciousness,should%20happen%20in%20the%20future.   Lombardo (2006). The Evolution of Future Consciousness: The Nature and Historical Development of the Human Capacity to Think about the Future (book): https://www.amazon.com/Evolution-Future-Consciousness-Historical-Development/dp/1425944469  Lombardo (2017). Future Consciousness: The Path to Purposeful Evolution (book): https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B076336S1J/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i6  Lombardo (2018). Science Fiction - The Evolutionary Mythology of the Future: Prometheus to the Martians (book): https://www.amazon.com/Science-Fiction-Evolutionary-Mythology-Prometheus-ebook/dp/B07J5TJBKP/ref=pd_sbs_2/143-8599632-6336100?pd_rd_w=73u3t&pf_rd_p=3676f086-9496-4fd7-8490-77cf7f43f846&pf_rd_r=ND8Y37MQBGG26HB5XWAD&pd_rd_r=8e81084d-0d1c-45de-9603-c5ecc3fb8516&pd_rd_wg=4dBtz&pd_rd_i=B07J5TJBKP&psc=1  Lombardo (2019). The Pursuit of Virtue: The Path to a Good Future (book): https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07N8LDJRR/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i8  Lombardo (2021). Science Fiction: the Evolutionary Mythology of the Future: Volume Two: the Time Machine to Metropolis (book): https://www.amazon.com/Science-Fiction-Evolutionary-Mythology-Metropolis-ebook/dp/B09F6X54JK/ref=pd_sim_1/143-8599632-6336100?pd_rd_w=Ovq6V&pf_rd_p=ea2ff367-bd36-4ec5-aee4-94c2aa42287d&pf_rd_r=RM7NA2B7ESTBH3X4C2NG&pd_rd_r=566e1044-01bd-4176-a2a9-03757cb9aec5&pd_rd_wg=bfdhQ&pd_rd_i=B09F6X54JK&psc=1  Lombardo (2021). Science Fiction: the Evolutionary Mythology of the Future: Volume Three: Superman to Star Maker (book): https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09F6XNV47/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0  Tom's website: https://www.centerforfutureconsciousness.com/  Tom's video webinar series on the history of science fiction: https://cfc-school.thinkific.com/ Tom’s online courses: https://www.centerforfutureconsciousness.com/FC_Course.htm    Support Alex's videos: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani
01:10:28
September 27, 2021
Brent Cooper: Metamodernism and the Future(s) - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 2
Brent Cooper: Metamodernism and the Future(s) - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 2
The 2nd episode of the 2nd season of the 4Sight Chats Series, with Brent Cooper. Brent is a geopolitical sociologist, founder of The Abs-Tract Organization, and filmmaker. Alex is PhD candidate at NUS Business School (Singapore), and Associate Editor of the journal "World Futures Review".     Chat Outline:   - What is metamodernism?  - The normative aspect of metamodernism   - Differences and similarities between metamodernism and integral theory  - The relation between metamodernism and science  - Brent's film, The AbsTract: Core Philosophy, Act I   Available in video format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4OK4noHkVE MENTIONED REFERENCES   Brent’s Medium: https://medium.com/@brentcooper  Vermeulen & van den Akker (2010). Notes on Metamodernism: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/jac.v2i0.5677  Hanzi’s articles on metamodernism: https://metamoderna.org/  Hanzi (2019). Nordic Ideology: A Metamodern Guide to Politics, Book Two: https://www.amazon.com/Nordic-Ideology-Metamodern-Politics-Guides/dp/8799973928  Alex’s article on the futures of capitalism: https://www.academia.edu/37518829/Scenario_archetypes_of_the_futures_of_capitalism_The_conflict_between_the_psychological_attachment_to_capitalism_and_the_prospect_of_its_dissolution  Brent’s article about integral theory and metamodernism https://medium.com/the-abs-tract-organization/integral-abstraction-41a7d8597476    Rowson’s article about Metamodernism in the Perspectiva book: https://systems-souls-society.com/metamodernism-and-the-perception-of-context-the-cultural-between-the-political-after-and-the-mystic-beyond/  Alex’s article about the resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight (with Thomas Chermack): https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ffo2.61  Brent’s article in The Side View: https://thesideview.co/journal/mapping-metamodernism-for-collective-intelligence/  Brent’s short film, The AbsTract: Core Philosophy, Act I: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJBRI53hmrE&t=0s  Trailer of the film: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVDk-u1xqRU     Support Alex's videos: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani
01:28:36
August 02, 2021
Young-chan Ro: Confucianism and the Future(s) - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 1
Young-chan Ro: Confucianism and the Future(s) - 4Sight Chats SE2 Ep. 1
The 1st episode of the 2nd season of the 4Sight Chats Series, with Young-chan Ro. Young-chan is a professor of religious studies and the director of the Korean studies center at George Mason University. Alex is PhD candidate at NUS Business School (Singapore), and Associate Editor of the journal "World Futures Review".   Chat Outline:  - The ideal society according to Confucianism  - The five cardinal relationships of Confucianism and how they can inform/be reinterpreted for human societies today   - How to counter the claim that Confucianism supports degenerating hierarchies  - How to conciliate Confucianism's views of the past, present, and future   - How to encourage engaged scholarship on Confucianism in mainstream academia   Available in video format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qw_12_gew6w MENTIONED REFERENCES Economist (2021). Confucianism has become a political punchbag in South Korea: https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/01/02/confucianism-has-become-a-political-punchbag-in-south-korea Learn more about Young-chan: https://religious.gmu.edu/people/yro  Support Alex's videos: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani
01:11:01
June 07, 2021
Peter Hayward: "Pracademia", Futures Games, and Futurepod - 4Sight Chats Ep. 10
Peter Hayward: "Pracademia", Futures Games, and Futurepod - 4Sight Chats Ep. 10
10th episode of the 4Sight Chats Series, with Peter Hayward. Peter is a "pracademic" with two decades of experience in teaching foresight to passionate and skillful people. He is also the co-host of Futurepod, one of the most well regarded and long-lasting podcasts in futures & foresight. Alex is PhD candidate at NUS Business School (Singapore), and Associate Editor of the journal "World Futures Review".    Chat Outline: - Using foresight to solve clients' problems - The Sarkar Game in organizational contexts  - The Polak Game in organizational contexts  - The resistance to futures & foresight in business schools  - Futurepod: why it was launched and lessons learnt   Available in video format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SLdG9fU_zA The previous conversation between Alex and Peter (Futurepod ep.89): https://www.futurepod.org/podcast/2020/10/24/ep-89  Mentioned sources:   Fergnani & Sweeney (2021). Identity wind tunneling: A method for finding an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios: upcoming   The Sarkar Game, Teach the Future Library: https://library.teachthefuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Sarkar-Game.pdf    Galtung & Inayatullah (1997). Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: https://www.amazon.sg/Macrohistory-Macrohistorians-Perspectives-Individual-Civilizational/dp/0275957551   Hayward and Candy (2017). The Polak Game, or Where do You Stand?: https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2017-2/the-polak-game-or-where-do-you-stand/  Futurepod: https://www.futurepod.org/   Additional references:  Inatyatullah (2013). Using Gaming to Understand the Pattern of the Future: https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2013-2/vol-18-no-1-september-2013/article/using-gaming-to-understand-the-patterns-of-the-future-the-sarkar-game-in-action/  The Sarkar Game, Prout Globe: https://proutglobe.org/2012/09/the-sarkar-game/  The Polak Game, or Where do You Stand? by Fearless Culture Design: https://www.fearlessculture.design/blog-posts/the-polak-game-where-do-you-stand  The Polak Game: an exercise to help reveal your theories of the future, By Boingboing.net: https://boingboing.net/2018/01/01/contestable-futures.html   Support Alex's videos: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani
01:37:24
May 07, 2021
Paul Schoemaker: Vigilance, Foresight, and Business Schools - 4Sight Chats Ep. 9
Paul Schoemaker: Vigilance, Foresight, and Business Schools - 4Sight Chats Ep. 9
9th episode of the 4Sight Chats Series, with Paul Schoemaker. Paul is an internationally renown expert, an entrepreneur, and an educator in the fields of strategy, innovation and decision-making. Alex is PhD candidate at NUS Business School (Singapore), and Associate Editor of the journal "World Futures Review"   Chat outline:  -What is organizational vigilance?  -What is the difference between vigilance and foresight?  -Why are organizations not vigilant?  -Why is vigilance not taught in business schools?  -Advice on how to research/teach vigilance in business schools  -Paul's journey though scenarios at Shell and how to excel at scenarios   Also available in video format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdtmJUPePNY Books and articles mentioned:  Day & Schoemaker (2020). See Sooner, Act Faster (book): https://www.amazon.com/See-Sooner-Act-Faster-Turbulence/dp/0262043319/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=see+sooner+act+faster&qid=1616238607&s=audible&sr=1-1-catcorr  Schoemaker & Gunther (2016). Profiting from Uncertainty (book): https://www.amazon.com/Profiting-Uncertainty-Strategies-Succeeding-Matter/dp/150116175X  Day & Schoemaker (2008). Are You a ‘Vigilant Leader’? (article, MIT Sloan Management Review): https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/are-you-a-vigilant-leader/  Schoemaker (1993). Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation (article, Strategic Management Journal): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220041993_Multiple_Scenario_Development_Its_Conceptual_and_Behavioral_Foundation  Fergnani & Chermack (2021). The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it (article, Futures & Foresight Science) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ffo2.61  Schomaker (2021). Theory Development in Foresight Research: Commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021 (upcoming article, Futures & Foresight Science).   Schomaker & Tetlock (2012).Taboo Scenarios: How to Think about the Unthinkable (article, California Management Review): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289661696_Taboo_Scenarios_How_to_Think_about_the_Unthinkable  Schomaker (2008).The Future Challenges of Business: Rethinking Management Education (article, California Management Review): https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.2307/41166448  Support Alex's videos: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani
01:00:08
March 23, 2021
Erik F. Øverland: The World Futures Studies Federation and its Challenges - 4Sight Chats Ep.8
Erik F. Øverland: The World Futures Studies Federation and its Challenges - 4Sight Chats Ep.8
8th episode of the 4Sight Chats Series, with Erik Øverland. Erik is the President of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), and Co-Editor in Chief of the European Journal of Futures Research. Alex is PhD candidate at NUS Business School (Singapore), and Associate Editor of the journal "World Futures Review"  Chat outline:  -What WFSF is and does  -The challenge of advocating for preferable futures while objectively presenting a range of scenarios  -The role of the WFSF in the current society and its political positions  -The future(s) of professional associations within the field of futures & foresight  -What new members can expect from WFSF  -Current WFSF initiatives to promote and expand the field of futures and foresight   Learn more about the World Futures Studies Federation: https://wfsf.org/ ​Support Alex's videos: https://www.patreon.com/alexfergnani​
55:52
March 05, 2021