Yet Another Value Podcast
By Andrew Walker
Please see our legal and disclaimer at: yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Yet Another Value PodcastApr 23, 2024
Best of Breed Growth Stocks' Julian Lin thesis on king of the meme stocks, Reddit $RDDT
Julian Lin, Founder of Best of Breed Growth Stocks, an investment newsletter, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Reddit, Inc. (NYSE: RDDT).
$RDDT write-up on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686257-reddit-julian-lins-top-conviction-idea
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[1:22] What is Reddit $RDDT and why is it interesting to Julian
[2:58] $RDDT bull case
[14:09] Network effects
[20:46] $RDDT bear case: when will they become profitable? What are they spending R&D on?
[30:45] Valuation
[33:48] $RDDT vs. tier 2 social media platforms (Pinterest, Twitter, SnapChat) / mismanagement
[45:27] Valuation cont'd
[56:53] $RDDT Growth strategy
[1:02:23] $RDDT's Biggest misperceptions
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts
A typical day in the life of a financial advisor calls for back-to-back client meetings, juggling portfolio management, and the consistent desire to improve client relationships. YCharts’ report and proposal tools could be the missing piece to help you effectively handle these time-consuming tasks.
Now more than ever, clients want to hear from their advisors. And with user-friendly templates at your disposal, generating impactful client reports can be easily integrated into your everyday routine, helping you free up time and focus on what matters most: enhancing client interactions and growing AUM.
Join thousands of users who rely on YCharts by leveraging personalized proposal reports to truly showcase your value add. Click the link in the show notes to start your free YCharts trial and tell them I sent you (new customers only): https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
Matt Turk on why corporate history matters with Target Hospitality $TH
Matt Turk joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH), one of North America's largest providers of vertically integrated modular accommodations and value-added hospitality services.
Links:
https://www.bamsec.com/filing/114036124014503/4?cik=1859285
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31s6todiuM8
Matt's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@given2trade4
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:53] What's going on with Target Hospitality $TH and why its interesting to Matt
[8:18] $TH Corporate history and why it's important / 2020 letter compared to 2024 letter from Arrow Group
[31:22] History cont'd of $TH with Arrow Group / why this situations reminds Andrew of $HRT situation
[39:11] Government contract / tail risks
[41:54] Bull case / comparables / rollups
[49:13] Additional risks
[58:50] Likelihood of closing and talking through potential buyout prices[1:04:50] Final thoughts
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst.
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP
Greenhaven Road's Scott Miller shares his thoughts on point of sale business, PAR Technologies $PAR
Scott Miller, CIO of Greenhaven Road, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on PAR Technologies (NYSE: PAR), where more than 70,000 restaurants in more than 110 countries use PAR’s restaurant point-of-sale, digital ordering, loyalty and back-office software solutions as well as industry-leading hardware and drive-thru offerings (according to the company's website).
Voss Capital write-up: https://vosscapital.substack.com/p/pars-path-to-80-redux
Greenhaven Road Q4 investor letter ($PAR mentioned): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/65bd570c0ba5792db938f9a6/1706907404785/Greenhaven+Road+-+2023+Q4+FINAL_.pdf
For more information about Greenhaven Road, please visit: https://www.greenhavenroad.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[1:30] Overview of PAR Technologies $PAR and why Scott is excited about the idea
[4:18] What are the "haters" missing with $PAR
[7:54] Burger King customer win
[9:42] Competitive landscape
[15:20] Why $PAR more than a Point of Sale play; additional verticals
[19:04] How do they win more customers / cloud-based vs. not-cloud based point of sale matter
[25:28] $PAR recent acquisitions, execution risk / convenience stores
[33:55] Growth runway / what keeps Scott up at night about $PAR
[38:24] Lumpiness of customer wins/announcements
[41:30] Final thoughts on $PAR
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts. Numbers and data are one thing, but how you communicate and scale the delivery of these insights to clients is the real challenge. The reality is, people are more inclined to invest their attention and hard-earned dollars when presented with a captivating story and a skilled storyteller. YCharts empowers you with a fully customizable report and proposal offering, allowing you to expertly guide and control the narrative during client meetings. With over 30 modules for returns, risk, allocations, exposures, and holdings breakdowns, you can effectively showcase your strategies’ strengths and your competitors’ weaknesses. To top it off, YCharts Proposals has built-in sharing capabilities so you can create and share report templates for seamless collaboration among colleagues, enabling your team to gather new assets with ease.
Check out YCharts' all-in-one solution and easily illustrate the value you bring to your clients. Click the link here to start your free YCharts trial and tell them I sent you: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
TeraWulf's $WULF Patrick Fleury on everything you need to know about bitcoin mining
Patrick Fleury, CFO of TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: WULF), joins the podcast to discuss everything you need to know about bitcoin mining.
TeraWulf owns and operates vertically integrated, environmentally clean bitcoin mining facilities in the United States.
For more information and to subscribe to TeraWulf, please visit: https://www.terawulf.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[1:34] Patrick Fleury's background / difference between oil and gas mining to bitcoin mining at TeraWulf
[6:10] Defining hash rate and hash price
[12:48] Halving
[14:10] ROI for every new bitcoin miner they build
[19:04] Cost of capital / power costs
[24:33] Economies of scale and growth for growth's sake
[28:05] ROI on a 20-year investment in bitcoin miner (when considering halvings happen every 4 years) / cooling / low cost mining strategy
[33:41] What happens if bitcoin price drops (from mining operation perspective)
[38:13] Why issuing shares and directing all cash flows to pay down debt the best use of capital?
[40:15] Valuation and where Patrick thinks bitcoin miners should trade / replacement costs on assets in the ground
[45:38] Mining facilities, power, AI plays, turning over to HFC and AI machines / power capacity, source of power
[54:43] Nautilus facility / bitcoin mining tax / expanding internationally
[100:16] Capital allocation
[1:01:36] M&A / value discrepancies / final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/
Devin LaSarre shares thesis on Haypp Group, Online Distributor of Snus and Nicotine Pouches
Devin LaSarre, Founder and Editor of the Invariant Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast to discuss his write-up and thesis on Haypp Group (HAYPP.ST).
Quick description on Haypp Group (according to their website): The Haypp Group is spearheading the global transformation from smoking to healthier product alternatives. With origins in Scandinavia our extensive experience from pioneering markets in smoke free alternatives, as well as being a leader in the e-commerce sector, we now fully take our vision to a global scale. With eleven e-commerce brands, the Haypp group is present in seven countries where we served more than 950 000 active customers in 2023.
Haypp Group write-up: https://invariant.substack.com/p/haypp-group-nicotine-pouch-trend
For more information and to subscribe to Devin LaSarre's newsletter, Invariant, please visit: https://invariant.substack.com/
You can Follow Devin LaSarre on Twitter/X @DevinLaSarre: https://twitter.com/DevinLaSarre
Chapters: [0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[1:36] What is the Haypp Group and why it's interesting to Devin and overview of the smoking alternatives industry
[6:52] Demand for nicotine and oral products (pouches, snus, dips)
[13:44] Haypp Group - investing thesis, why attractive idea to Devin
[17:44] What is differentiated about Haypp Group; why is this not the most competitive, lowest margin business
[23:21] What's a "Zyn-fluencer" and marketing challenges
[26:24] Customer acquisition costs / focus on SEO
[33:06] Haypp Group's pricing and cost structure
[41:01] Alternative smoking product consumer trends, switching up brands
[48:30] Addressing risk factors / Haypp's moat
[57:07] Insights business
[59:47] Regulation risk with selling alternative smoking products online
[1:07:23] Valuation
[1:12:32] Where alpha potentially comes from since Haypp stock's double in last 6 months
[1:18:06] Low capex
[1:21:30] Switching costs from cigarettes to alternative smoking products
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets March 2024
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this March 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on meme stocks being back in vogue, $DJT, is speculation back in the market right now, small caps due for some revenge, crypto, bitcoin halving and SBF sentencing.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[2:14] Chris' high level thoughts as we conclude March 2024
[3:35] Meme stocks back in vogue / $DJT
[7:31] Deeper dive on $DJT / monetizing celebrity
[14:54] Is speculation back?
[18:09] Small caps due for some revenge?
[23:40] Crypto, bitcoin halving, performance since launch of ETFs
[32:06] SBF sentencing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/
Lake Cornelia Research's Judd Arnold describes MiX Telematics $MIXT and Powerfleet $PWFL merger
Judd Arnold, Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake, joins the podcast to discuss the MiX Telematics $MIXT and Powerfleet $PWFL merger.
$PWFL / $MIXT Memo: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eONP4_CF6UPAKXYuZiDedUt2jRimujTa/view
For more information for Lake Cornelia Research Management and Judd Arnold, you can can Follow on Twitter/X @CorneliaLake: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:53] Overview of $MIXT / $PWFL
[10:18] Why $MIXT / $PWFL merger is so interesting to Judd
[21:21] Pushback on the bull case for the merger
[27:56] Switching costs / AI
[34:22] Open vs. closed systems
[37:38] Management and incentives
[48:44] Management's comments and vision post-deal
[53:58] Thoughtful pushback Judd has received on thesis
[59:20] Merger background
[1:07:26] Why Judd publishes these long notes? Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research. From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights. Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost. You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact. Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research. To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Matt Warder shares state of the coal markets + $AMR $HCC
Matt Warder, @mfwarder on Twitter/X, joins the podcast to discuss all things Coal, including: high level thoughts on coal, investing narrative from last few years, regulation, "greening" of metallurgical coal, $AMR, $HCC, upcoming election's impact on coal investment case and more!
You can Follow Matt Warder on Twitter/X @mfwarder: https://twitter.com/mfwarder
Range Global Resources Coal ETF: https://rangeetfs.com/coal
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction
[1:27] High level thoughts on Coal
[6:07] Coal's investment narrative from last few years
[12:50] "Commodities don't die down, they die up" / down cycle in thermal coal
[16:07] Biden admin on coal
[21:38] Metallurgical coal ideas
[26:17] Global cost curve for metallurgical coal "met coal" / are we mining less efficiently?
[35:41] "Greening" of metallurgical coal?
[42:53] Domestic coal plays $AMR
[48:54] $HCC / Blue Creek Mine
[57:17] Does upcoming election matter for the coal investment case
[1:00:28] $HCC $AMR valuations
[1:06:09] Final thoughts on coal
Broyhill Asset Management's Chris Pavese on $AVTR, pick and shovel play for life sciences
Christopher Pavese, President & Chief Investment Officer at Broyhill Asset Management, joins the podcast to discuss Avantor, Inc. (NYSE: AVTR), a leading global provider of mission-critical products and services to customers in the life sciences and advanced technology industries.
For more information about Broyhill Asset Management, please visit: https://www.broyhillasset.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:35] As a generalist, how Chris and team arrived looking at healthcare + GLP-1 tangent
[9:16] Overview of Avantor, Inc. $AVTR and why it's interesting to Chris
[13:56] Laboratory Solutions (accounts for 2/3's of $AVTR revs) / how embedded is $AVTR with customer base (CDMO business)
[20:19] VWR acquisition
[23:02] Disconnect between reported numbers and large cap comparisons / understanding cyclicality in life sciences/healthcare
[32:36] Variant opinion that generates alpha in $AVTR
[37:14] Why not own $TMO or $DHR over $AVTR?
[42:06] Capital allocation and M&A
[46:22] Build vs. sell
[48:35] Recovery story: bull or base case when $AVTR shared guidance
[54:01] Return on due diligence work with $AVTR, perception as a complicated business
[1:02:04] Tail risks
[1:06:39] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Gator Capital Management's Derek Pilecki shares his thoughts on Banks and Financials in 2024
Derek Pilecki, CFA, Managing Member and Portfolio Manager at Gator Capital Management, joins the podcast to have a general conversation about the Financial Sector: banks, crypto and more!
For more information about Gator Capital Management, please visit: https://gatorcapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:49] What's most interesting to Derek in Financials sector today / $NYCB / Valley and Western Alliance
[12:28] Western Alliance
[19:43] Capital One and thoughts on Discover merger
[28:36] Overall regulatory environment with banks and financials
[30:51] Election and how that affects banks
[33:26] Robinhood
[41:47] Fannie's and Freddie's
[47:50] $NYCB cont'd.
[50:32] Thoughts on buybacks based on conversations with bank CEO's
[1:01:18] Why Derek thinks banks are below average businesses
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Plural Investing's Chris Waller shares thesis on industrial roll-up compounder, TerraVest $TVK.TO
Chris Waller, Founder and CIO at Plural Investing, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on TerraVest Industries Inc. (TSX: TVK), a manufacturer of home heating products, propane, anhydrous ammonia (“NH3”) and natural gas liquids (“NGL”) transport vehicles and storage vessels, energy processing equipment and fiberglass storage tanks.
For more information about Plural Invest, please visit: https://www.pluralinvesting.com/
Plural Investing write up on TerraVest $TVK.TO: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57eff176e58c621a298bfa61/t/65c1736ea99cbe30a72634d1/1707176815309/Plural+Investing+Report+on+Terravest+%282024.01.24%29.pdf
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:54] What is TerraVest and why are they so interesting to Chris
[4:51] Why is TerraVest underfollowed?
[6:47] Why can their acquire at a discount and $TVK.TO's business model, overview, value proposition
[14:21] Propane tank industry / location moat
[19:44] How TerraVest pulls off the reduction in steel costs
[22:27] Why hasn't Private Equity stepped in to roll up the propane tank industry?
[25:48] How does TerraVest get labor cost down?
[29:35] Tanker and Boiler businesses / recent Highland Tanks acquisition
[35:13] Terminal value questions
[40:49] Management, insider ownership and incentives
[44:50] Valuation / Organic growth / How much accretive acquisitions to drive real performance here
[51:29] Cyclicality[54:27] Capital allocation
[57:40] $TVK.TO bear case
[1:00:46] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Speedwell Research's Drew Cohen shares thesis on FinTwit favorite, Constellation Software $CSU.TO
Drew Cohen from Speedwell Research, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Constellation Software (TSX: CSU), who acquires, manages and builds vertical market software businesses.
For more information about Speedwell Research, please visit: https://speedwellresearch.com/
Speedwell Research profile on Constellation Software: https://speedwellresearch.com/companies/reports/constellation-software/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:41] Who is Constellation Software and why are they interesting to Drew
[6:05] How $CSU.TO is scaling their business model / competing with private equity
[13:00] Reverse DCF, deploying capital, competing now with other billion dollar software businesses
[21:02] Mark Leonard - is $CSU.TO a jockey bet / capital allocation / sellers
[28:32] $CSU.TO - what takes this company out
[30:57] AI risk?
[32:52] Price increases / TransDigm comparison / competition risk
[40:08] $CSU.TO vs. parking capital at index fund / likelihood of deploying at least 50% of their cash flow over next 10-ish years
[45:07] Operating synergies with 6 verticals? Why not more spin-offs?
[47:07] Additional worry about $CSU.TO - changing incentive system
[51:58] Aside from Berkshire, what are other examples of Constellation-like culture
[54:57] Speedwell's favorite write-ups he's done recently + quick thoughts on $RH
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets February 2024
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this February 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on New ETF $BOXX, Bitcoin and crypto in general, are we in a $BTC mania and Anti-trust outlook - election proxy (using Capital One / Discover as an example).
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:09] Thoughts on New ETF $BOXX
[18:55] Bitcoin and upcoming "halving" / current thoughts on crypto in general
[30:44] Are we in a $BTC mania?
[33:15] Anti-trust outlook - election proxy? Using Capital One buying Discover as an example
[43:11] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Aurora Financial's Austin Crites on getting comfortable with The Lovesac Company $LOVE
Austin Crites, CIO at Aurora Financial Strategies, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on The Lovesac Company (NASDAQ: LOVE), the home furnishing and technology brand best known for its Sacs, The World's Most Comfortable Seat.
For more information about Aurora Financial Strategies, please visit: https://www.aurorafinancialstrategies.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:35] Overview of Lovesac $LOVE and why are they so interesting to Austin
[5:44] Bear case: One product company + cheap knockoffs
[12:02] Repeat business / Crocs comparison / Reddit and TikTok Lovesac / Target customers
[21:27] Shark Ninja comparison
[26:09] Valuation / Competitive analysis (La-Z-Boy, Restoration Hardware)
[31:07] Inventory turns
[34:56] Short interest
[38:48] Management and insider ownership
[41:27] Barter revenues
[43:43] $LOVE final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Oxy Capital's Pedro Sousa thesis on high quality, low cost gym facilities in the UK $GYM.L
Pedro Sousa, Principal at Oxy Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on The Gym Group plc (LSE: GYM) - founded in 2007, the Gym Group is the original provider of high quality, low cost gym facilities in the UK.
For more information about Oxy Capital, please visit: https://oxycapital.com/homepage/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:05] Overview of Gym Group $GYM.L and why it's interesting to Pedro
[9:09] Competitive analysis: Basic-Fit and PureGym
[18:00] Raising prices and margin expansion
[25:40] Replacement cost and margin of safety
[31:29] Discounting of membership in October 2022
[33:42] New CEO in Summer 2023
[37:29] Three-tier pricing membership
[41:14] Normalized earnings levels looks like and free cash flow
[53:18] EBITDA multiples
[56:35] Bear case on $GYM.L
[1:07:28] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Bireme Capital's Evan Tindell on British American Tobacco $BTI and tobacco's inflection point
Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, joins the podcast for his fourth time to discuss his thesis on British American Tobacco p.l.c. (NYSE: BTI), the company engages in the provision of tobacco and nicotine products to consumers worldwide.
For more information about Bireme Capital, please visit: https://www.biremecapital.com/
Evan's $BTI write-up in Bireme Capital's investor letter: https://www.biremecapital.com/blog/december-2023-investor-letter
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:04] Overview of British American Tobacco Company and why they are interesting to Evan
[6:42] What Evan thinks his edge is with $BTI / comments on stock performance over the last few months
[11:58] Vaping, regulations and how this affects $BTI
[18:38] $BTI annual report
[25:24] Competition from non-regulated folks / legal liabilities for new $BTI products / menthol cigarette ban
[34:00] Doom-looping on cigarette industry
[38:00] $BTI's ownership stake in ITC (formerly known as India Tobacco Company)
[43:43] "Sum of the Parts" stocks[51:07] $BTI capital allocation strategy
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
The Science of Hitting's Alex Morris dissects "Letting Winners Run" philosophy and strategy
Alex Morris, Founder of TSOH Investment Research, returns to Yet Another Value Podcast for the fourth time to discuss his recent article, "Letting Winners Run."
For more information about Alex Morris and subscribe to his research service, TSOH Investment Research Service, please visit: https://thescienceofhitting.com/ You can Follow Alex Morris on Twitter @TSOH_Investing: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing
"Letting Winners Run" article: https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/letting-winners-run
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:47] Letting winners run thesis
[6:23] Hindsight bias
[8:26] Cash flow considerations
[12:07] Selection bias
[14:36] Examples of the "Letting Winners Run" strategy (forever business vs. 5-year/20-year outlooks)
[18:55] How "Forever Business" in media has changed over the years
[21:46] Management
[26:07] Is there something unique about big tech
[29:08] Thesis drift + examples
[38:03] Knowing when to sell "forever business"
[41:56] "Beautiful Sunset" principle
[45:27] Dismissing banks an example of dismissing "letting winners run"
[51:06] Why "Best Ideas Funds" fall short
[53:40] Final thoughts and closing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets January 2024
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this January 2024 edition, Chris discusses anti-trust, Spirit decision, US Steel - Nippon, banks and $LQDA.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/ Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:53] Anti-trust + Spirit decision
[9:00] Judge's decision in Spirit case + how antitrust lawyers reacted before and after the decision
[15:45] Future of anti-trust and mergers
[21:32] US Steel - Nippon
[28:33] Banks
[30:32] $LQDA
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Voss Capital's Jon Hook thesis on outsourced revenue cycle management company, R1 RCM $RCM
Jon Hook, CFA, Senior Analyst at Voss Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on R1 RCM Inc. (NASDAQ: RCM), a leading provider of technology-driven solutions that transform the patient experience and financial performance of healthcare providers.
For more information about Voss Capital, please visit: https://www.vosscap.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:30] What is $RCM and why are they interesting to Jon Hook
[3:47] Why tax is 4-6% (vs. 2% or 20%)
[6:20] Jon Hook's background
[8:50] $RCM elevator pitch
[15:43] $RCM going concerns: addressing short reports, challenging 2022, management change
[22:36] Sutter roll-out
[27:37] Network effects / competitive landscape
[32:32] Addressing add-backs, adjusted EBITDA
[37:10] Addressing stickiness of the business
[40:53] Providence acquisition and capital allocation strategy
[48:22] Final thoughts on $RCM short report
[52:11] Coder shortage
[54:31] Optum ($RCM largest competitor)
[58:33] $RCM final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Lake Cornelia's Judd Arnold provides his 2024 outlook on offshore drilling + activism
Judd Arnold, Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake, joins the podcast to discuss the offshore drilling space, $TDW update, activism, $VAL, $RIG, $NE, Petrobas risk, macro risks, reflecting on recent positions with lessons learned and what Judd is focused on for 2024.
For more information for Lake Cornelia Research Management and Judd Arnold, you can can Follow on Twitter/X @CorneliaLake: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:24] Offshore drilling space and $TDW update
[13:12] Offshore drilling space - market correction? and $VAL $RIG
[22:56] Why $VAL might not exercise options and Judd's newsletter explaining why $VAL should ($VAL ultimately did) + discussion on activism
[35:38] What's it going to take for $VAL to start working
[40:25] New build
[43:48] Petrobas risk?
[45:19] Macro risks: OPEC, Oil prices, geopolitics, US Election
[51:52] Gulf of Mexico
[55:48] What Judd is focused on; activism; reflecting on recent positions and lessons learned
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Fundamental Edge's Brett Caughran on setting up for success in the pod shop world
Brett Caughran, Lead Trainer and Founder of Fundamental Edge, joins the podcast to discuss Fundamental Edge, Brett's background, how pod shows think about earnings season, fundamental stories, liquidity and market efficiency, small caps, pod shops, risk management and pod shop culture.
To sign up for Fundamental Edge's Analyst Academy, use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:33] Brett's background and overview of Fundamental Edge
[6:34] What do pod shops look at when they're thinking about earnings season
[15:54] Fundamental stories
[20:31] Liquidity and market efficiency, small caps
[24:58] Pod shop strategies, stress tests, blow ups
[33:53] How interest rate environment affects the pod model
[37:45] Revenge of the small caps
[43:27] Going to work at smaller startup pods vs. larger pod shops
[47:49] Risk management
[51:03] Pod shop culture
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Patrick Wolff shares his thoughts investing in 2024, battleground stocks, MicroCaps + $TACT thesis
Patrick Wolff, full-time private investor, joins to have a general discussion a wide range of topics: his background (former US Chess champion in 1992 and 1995), the right to buy stocks, domestic vs. international focus, indexing vs. single stock investing, battleground stocks, advantages investing in MicroCap stocks and closes with his thesis on Transact Technologies $TACT.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:01] Patrick Wolff's background
[7:10] The right to buy stocks
[12:37] Domestic vs. International focus; European markets
[21:04] Indexing vs. single stock investing; tax efficiency; time efficiency
[32:56] Diversification and circle of competence
[37:53] Battleground stocks
[40:19] MicroCap stocks
[47:13] $TACT Transact Technologies thesis
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Jim Royal, Author of "Zen of Thrift Conversions", on the basics of Thrift Conversions
Jim Royal, Author of "Zen of Thrift Conversions", joins the podcast to provide the basics of "Thrift Conversions", what that means, as well as examples that help illuminate them.
Jim's book, "Zen of Thrift Conversions", available on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Zen-Thrift-Conversions-Hidden-Stocks/dp/B08KH3THCR?crid=1RO9I0CVP07JD&keywords=the+zen+of+thrift+conversions&qid=1704737642&sprefix=zen+of+thrift,aps,161&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=andrew613880e-20&linkId=aa5821380d1063911549c0014b02427a&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:49] The basics of "Thrift Conversions"
[8:51] Safety
[11:25] Management incentives
[15:46] How can investors participate in IPO of thrift conversions
[19:58] Needham
[23:50] Thrift Conversions in current banking environment
[27:26] Return on equities and repurchases
[35:39] Characteristics of poor de-mutualizations and thrift conversions
[39:14] Investor Activism
[45:08] Why thrift conversions sell during a given time frame and why some don't
[47:36] Worthwhile for investors to look at second step conversions (because so complicated)?
[51:00] Lightening round: why more mutuals in the Northeast than elsewhere? How much does geography matter?
[53:59] Three (3) interesting de-mutualizations to look at, according to Jim Royal
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
David Capital Partner's Adam Patinkin thesis on asset light house builder, Vistry Group $VTY.L
Adam Patinkin, CFA, Managing Partner at David Capital Partners, LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Vistry Group PLC (LSE: VTY), UK’s leading provider of affordable mixed tenure homes.
For more information about David Capital Partners, please visit: https://davidpartners.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:28] David Capital's background and investing philosophy
[7:07] Overview and history of Vistry Group $VTY.L + David Capital's background with $VTY.L and why Vistry is interesting to Adam
[18:39] Partnerships business - what is it?
[27:04] What is unique about Countryside's business model (Vistry's competitive moat)
[36:25] Why Adam thinks that Vistry's future growth is going to unlock, despite trading flatish for last 15 or so years
[43:10] What "Mixed Tenure Project" means
[48:02] Partner pushback?
[52:40] NPC comparison
[56:17] What breaks the Vistry thesis?[1:00:55] UK housing cycle - where are we at[1:06:02] Vistry valuation + growth prospects
[1:16:25] What is the sell-side missing[1:22:38] CEO comp package and newly appointed board directors[1:25:22] Vistry exposure amongst UK funds
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets December 2023
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this December 2023 edition, Chris discusses what's on his mind at the end of the year, Merger Arb, $ROIV, $IMVT, thoughts on $SAVE, views on 2024 and lessons learned from 2023.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:46] Chris' thoughts, high level, for December 2023: merger arb
[2:44] Roivant $ROIV
[8:27] Immunovant, Inc. $IMVT
[13:44] Thoughts on $SAVE, antitrust, merger arb implications when government blocks M&A
[26:18] Views on 2024 and lessons learned from 2023
[36:23] CVRs
[42:55] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Greystone Capital Management's Adam Wilk on $SYZ.TO resurgence following corporate overhaul
Adam Wilk, CFA, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Greystone Capital Management, LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Sylogist (TSX: SYZ), provider of mission-critical SaaS solutions to over 2,000 public sector customers globally across the government, nonprofit, and education verticals.
For more information about Greystone Capital Management, please visit: https://www.greystonevalue.com/
Sylogist write-up in Q1 2023 Letter: https://www.greystonevalue.com/_files/ugd/47fd79_4bc7a737390344ceb68d07367503b878.pdf
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:32] Overview of Sylogist (TSX: SYZ) and why Adam finds it interesting
[9:00] $SYZ.TO strategic review and why pivoted the way they did
[15:49] How $SYZ.TO has evolved over last few years
[18:31] How $SYZ.TO management team is incentivized
[21:41] How is $SYZ.TO beating larger competitors for business / how is transitioning from "on-premises" to cloud offering creating growth? / Pricing power
[30:11] Microsoft partnership
[34:28] Focus on nonprofit and government verticals; value proposition for these target customers / biggest competitor
[38:36] Nonprofit space / Government ERPs
[42:20] $SYZ.TO earnings, specifically on EBITDA
[49:01] Thoughts on what CEO meant when he said "We're stepping on the gas for growth in 2024" on the Q3 call
[52:36] $SYZ.TO valuation and final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Creek Drive Capital's Kevin Mak introduces the business case for Sphere Entertainment $SPHR
Kevin Mak, CFA, Founder of Creek Drive Capital and Teacher at Stanford University of a course called, Financial Trading Strategy, discusses his thesis on Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR).
Link to Kevin's $SPHR thesis: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_jGx22O8NWRlb8zZZmuqMwfa-Ae3Y55o/view
Twitter: https://twitter.com/KevinLMak
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:17] Sphere Entertainment Co. $SPHR and why it's interesting to Kevin
[3:36] Kevin's views on $MSGN and why that's relevant for $SPHR
[8:56] How Kevin values $SPHR
[15:20] More important from a revenue perspective: Residencies or Daily Airing of "Postcards"
[17:13] Sustainability of the movies at $SPHR / how much better is $SPHR than a quality IMAX?
[26:35] $SPHR customer demand
[29:10] $SPHR music residency economics / logistics / creating the buzz
[38:30] $SPHR customer draw as technology improves
[40:52] Outside revenue streams (ad revenue on outside of the Sphere) / cost to create an ad for the Sphere (Billboard comp) + economics of the Sphere
[47:51] Main difference between Kevin's $SPHR analysis and sell-side analyst targets
[49:58] Corporate governance and naming rights
[52:39] Capex
[56:04] Valuing the franchise model and pushback on multiple Sphere's - how do you find the right markets for Sphere + why did London turn down the Sphere
[1:03:25] Convertible debt / $SPHR valuation
[1:08:12] $SPHR final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Saber Capital Management's John Huber describes inevitable retail winners + $FND thesis
John Huber, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Saber Capital Management, joins the podcast today to describe the concept "Inevitable Retail Winners", characteristics of inevitability, as well as talking through many different examples that exemplify this concept. In addition, John shares his thesis on Floor & Decor (NYSE: FND).
For more information about Saber Capital Management, please visit: https://sabercapitalmgt.com/home/
Article from Base Hit Investing: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/munger-podcast-thoughts-retail-stocks
YAV blog post on retail: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/cyber-monday-thoughts-part-1-retail
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:55] What is an "inevitable retail winner" and Charlie Munger's thoughts on this
[10:19] Restaurants
[12:34] Various retail companies mentioned, are they "inevitable retail winners"; characteristics of "inevitability" - using AutoZone as an example as well
[22:09] Retail management and culture
[27:33] Floor & Decor $FND: what is their moat? / customer experience / why inventory is a moat
[38:55] Pro vs. DIY customer spend / comment on ROIC on new stores / does $FND want to own their own stores
[45:14] Macro impact on $FND?
[51:14] $FND valuation
[58:20] $FND described as a "category killer"
[1:00:21] $FND risks
[1:03:36] Any difference in $FND pre vs. post IPO + mistakes management made in the past
[1:07:16] Push back on $FND thesis: recent acquisitions and "category killer"
[1:11:32] Any other retails that John thinks has a chance to be inevitable or he thinks that a lot of investors talk about in this "inevitable" way
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Valorem Research's Lionel Hutz provides his Spirit / JetBlue post-trial breakdown
Lionel Hutz, Editor of the Valorem Research Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast today to provide his Spirit / JetBlue post-trial breakdown.
For more information about Valorem Research and to subscribe, please visit: https://www.valoremresearch.com/ Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:44] General takeaways from Spirit / JetBlue post-trial and post-trial briefs
[7:56] DOJ's case, what citing of Philadelphia National and Baker Hughes cases as precedents means
[13:17] Harm to local markets - thoughts on this framework as it applies to the bear case
[16:04] JetBlue's "having it both ways" arguments and where Lionel thinks JetBlue scored points with their arguments
[23:21] 51 presumptive markets and how they are relevant to this case + the government's skepticism of divestitures
[33:20] How JetBlue and the government handled the expert witness, what deficiencies that JetBlue finds with the government witnesses
[39:39] Government's points regarding the hot docs
[42:40] How precedent being used to support both sides of the case
[50:03] Evidence supporting JetBlue's position and evidence supporting DOJ's position
[57:26] The fourth bear case on relevant markets
[1:03:35] Timing on ruling
[1:12:33] Legacy of the outcome for this case
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Far View Capital Management's Brad Hathaway talks the compelling setup at $DSGR
Brad Hathaway, Managing Partner of Far View Capital Management, joins the podcast today to discuss what he thinks is a compelling setup at Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: DSGR), a premier multi-platform specialty distribution company providing high touch, value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair & operations (MRO), the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and the industrial technologies markets.
For more information about Far View Capital Management, please visit: https://www.farviewcapitalmgmt.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[3:11] Quick overview of Distribution Solutions Group $DSGR and why it's interesting to Brad
[4:40] Overall $DSGR setup, starting with rights offering
[7:07] $DSGR business overview (all three businesses), direct comps, competitive sales advantage, customer retention
[19:51] $DSGR transaction (LKCM involvement) and why do all three businesses belong together?
[29:23] $DSGR thesis and LKCM's history with specialty distributors
[36:20] $DSGR valuation, what type of organic growth would $DSGR show without future acquisition, how much of the industry is still in-house, roll-up strategy multiple
[46:00] Scaling $DSGR business, capital allocation and tail risks
[57:22] Scaled specialty distributor that has not worked
[1:01:11] Path to liquidity, management and LKCM alignment
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Valorem Research's Lionel Hutz talks LQDA v. UTHR hearing at the Federal Circuit + argument review
Lionel Hutz, Editor of the Valorem Research Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast today to discuss the Liquidia vs. UTHR hearing at the Federal Circuit that took place on Monday, December 4, 2023.
Lionel's LQDA write up: https://www.valoremresearch.com/p/lqda-v-uthr-premium-update
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:35] What was the $LQDA hearing recently on Monday, December 4, 2023, and Lionel's initial thoughts on the hearing
[6:16] Arguments UTHR was drilling down on
[10:14] How Lionel thinks of the quality of UTHR's arguments
[13:56] Judge performance and thoughts on their performance during the hearing
[27:00] Question from Judge for LQDA about dissemination of abstracts / would we have this problem of dissemination if that conference was in 2023 vs 2004
[37:26] Next steps post-hearing: reversal or remanding, if remanding (sending back to the PTAB court) - what is the most likely issue, if reversal - what is the most likely reason
[49:02] Odds on outcome of the $LQDA hearing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
ICLE's Chief Economist Brian Albrecht evaluates $24.6 billion Kroger-Albertsons transaction
Brian Albrecht, Chief Economist of the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE), joins the podcast today to discuss ICLE's paper on the $24.6 billion Kroger-Albertsons transaction.
ICLE Paper on Kroger / Albertson's merger: https://laweconcenter.org/icle-on-kroger-albertsons/
White paper: https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Kroger-Albertsons-Merger-Full-Paper.pdf
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:32] Overview of ICLE (International Center for Law & Economics) and Brian's background
[3:12] Kroger / Albertson's merger - how Brian is thinking about this potential merger
[6:55] FTC's analytical framework
[10:58] Why government hasn't brought more suits in grocery industry
[14:34] Should precedent be updated?
[24:05] Why shouldn't market shares matter?
[28:30] How have delivery services changed the market index & wrap-up on wholesale clubs, competition
[33:05] Divestitures
[39:26] Specific divestiture package - Haggen's example
[46:20] Waterbed effect - why this is or isn't an antitrust concern
[51:44] Regional power vs. local power with retail workers
[59:01] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
MDC Financial Research's Michael Cohen post-closing arguments update on $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial
Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the second time to share his thoughts on the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger trial now that closing arguments have been made. Known for their “Event-Driven Legal” investment-research, Michael Cohen and his team follow significant legal disputes and are closely watching the $JBLU / $SAVE case.
For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/
For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #204, Michael's first appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:41] Update since half-time report: overall thoughts on trial now that we have had closing arguments - $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial
[3:55] $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial closing arguments
[11:04] Feel for how Judge is likely to craft opinion on the case
[14:20] Potential additional remedies to get merger over the hurdle
[17:02] Market definition and timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers)
[23:41] Step 3: the burden of proof from the DOJ, showing there is harm to consumers
[24:32] Cont'd: timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers
[27:51] United Airlines testimony
[35:03] Commentary on Spirit's survivability if merger doesn't go through
[41:38] JetBlue's second expert witness
[43:43] Dr. Chipley's testimony
[45:54] Closing arguments cont'd: competition be preserved
[48:02] Closing arguments cont'd: balance of nationwide benefit vs. local harm
[52:28] Main divergence of opinion based on being in the courtroom
[56:52] Hot docs
[59:05] Odds of merger going through closes vs. failing vs. re-pricing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Raper Capital's Jeremy Raper expounds on his letter to Bragg Gaming $BRAG
Jeremy Raper, Founder of Raper Capital, is back on Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss Bragg Gaming (NASDAQ: BRAG / TSX: BRAG), a global B2B content-driven iGaming technology provider. On November 22, 2023, Jeremy published "An Open Letter to the Chair of the Board of Bragg Gaming Group." on his website (link below), where he outlines strategic alternatives for the company. Jeremy and Andrew close out with Jeremy's take on the Spirit / JetBlue trial.
For more information about Jeremy Raper and Raper Capital, please visit: https://rapercapital.com/
Jeremy's Letter to $BRAG management: https://rapercapital.com/2023/11/22/an-open-letter-to-the-chair-of-the-board-of-bragg-gaming-group/ Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:55] Jeremy's Letter to the Board of Bragg Gaming $BRAG; company/thesis background and why Jeremy wrote and sent the letter
[17:20] Who is the right buyer for $BRAG?
[24:51] $BRAG financing in September 2022
[31:14] $BRAG CEO and management performance
[37:55] $BRAG final thoughts
[38:35] Jeremy's take on Spirit / JetBlue trial
[44:13] How Spirit / JetBlue trial compares to Twitter / Elon case
[47:23] Spirit / JetBlue bear case
[50:10] How Spirit / JetBlue case affects Hawaiian Airlines and Alaskan Airlines merger
[54:11] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets November 2023
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this November 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on the opacity and aggression of the FTC, how he is thinking about the Spirit trial, Amazon / iRobot deal and reflections on Charlie Munger.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[2:07] What is on Chris' mind this month: M&A, arbitrage, anti-trust, recent podcast with Lena Khan, Chair of the FTC
[7:49] How Chris is thinking about the Spirit trial, and the implications if the merger does not go through
[21:07] Spirit trial: airplane shortages and expert witnesses
[29:35] Spirit / JetBlue bear argument about hot docs
[33:47] Amazon / iRobot deal
[40:16] Final thoughts: reflections on Charlie Munger
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
YAVP AMA hosted by Caro-Kann Capital's Artem Fokin
Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast to do a fun AMA, not as a guest, but putting his hosting skills to the test and interviewing YAVP host, Andrew Walker.
For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
Chapters:
[1:25] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[3:03] Idea/inspiration for launching Yet Another Value Podcast
[5:56] 5% that is not "Podcast Andrew"
[7:10] YAVP format - how Andrew got to this podcast format
[10:56] Sourcing guests
[18:07] Interview preparation process
[26:29] Interviewer inspiration and how Andrew's interview style have evolved
[30:14] Striking a balance between leading guests too much vs. letting guests go on their own paths
[32:07] What makes a stock pitch stand out? Good stock idea vs. good stock pitch
[36:55] How has being a podcast host made Andrew a better investor?
[39:37] Andrew's investment style and philosophy
[42:42] How many ideas did Andrew end up investing in post-publishing a podcast
[45:02] What Andrew has learned about building a network, a community and connecting with people from the podcast
[47:41] Three people in the world Andrew wants to have on the podcast and the funniest moment thus far
[53:28] Three companies that Andrew would like to see discussed on the podcast
[55:59] Where does Andrew want to see the podcast go
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
MDC Financial Research's Michael Cohen "halftime" report on the $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial
Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the first time to share his thoughts on the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger trial that is now underway. Known for their “Event-Driven Legal” investment-research, Michael Cohen and his team follow significant legal disputes and are closely watching the $JBLU / $SAVE case.
For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/
For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #197 with Lionel Hutz: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lionel-hutz-breaks-down-the-jetblue Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:38] Michael's overview of the $SAVE / $JBLU trial as the trial has commenced
[14:47] How $SAVE / $JBLU case compared to Spectrum Brands trial
[16:20] Judge for the $SAVE / $JBLU trial
[19:52] Divestitures
[22:50] Anti-competitive arguments
[26:27] Spirit "Hot Docs" (Hot Documents)
[29:02] "Flailing Firm" defense
[35:28] Spirit stock performance since the trial started
[39:41] Head of Network
[42:31] Government "Hot Docs"
[45:32] Market Definition
[49:55] Additional takeaways from $SAVE / $JBLU case - government's focus on $SAVE's business model and testimonies on the fluidity of this industry
[51:32] Odds of DOJ winning vs. $JBLU winning
[54:26] What makes Michael think that this case isn't a coin flip in $JBLU's favor
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets October 2023
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this October 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on problems and opportunities in biotech, tax loss selling, closed-end funds, big spread arbitrage, Albertson's / Kroger merger case and predictions for upcoming Liberty Day.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:22] What is on Chris' mind this month: merger arb, closed-end fund, failed biotech, Liberty Day
[3:42] How Chris is thinking about biotech companies right now
[6:24] Problems in biotech, but is there opportunities?
[10:36] Closed-end funds
[14:04] Big spread arbitrage
[22:10] Albertson's / Kroger merger case
[33:15] Predictions for Liberty Day
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Boyar Research's Jonathan Boyar on how $MODG is growing an entire industry
Jonathan Boyar, President of Boyar Research, returns to the podcast for the fourth(!!) time to discuss his thesis on Topgolf Callaway Brands (NASDAQ: MODG) and how it is growing an entire industry.
Subscribe to the Boyar Research Substack here: https://boyarresearch.substack.com/
You can Follow Boyar Research on Twitter/X here: https://twitter.com/BoyarValue
$MODG write-up: https://boyarresearch.substack.com/p/a-company-thats-growing-its-entire
Chapters: [0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:42] Topgolf Callaway Brands $MODG and why its interesting
[3:57] Why $MODG is clearly a "Topgolf" story? And, what is Topgolf
[12:05] Land grab for opening new "Topgolf" or competitive stores
[15:00] What Jon thinks people are so worried about Topgolf
[18:06] Topgolf pushback: financing new stores
[22:17] Would it be better to separate Topgolf and Callaway?
[24:42] Topgolf advertising revenue stream and what is the company referring to when they say they are "maximizing economics" of the business (PEI system)
[29:30] KPIs the company tracks
[33:50] $MODG valuation
[39:04] "Toptracer" part of the business
[41:22] Pressure on $MODG stock; what keeps Jon up at night about the idea and various upside scenarios
[46:36] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Value Punks' Daye Deng on why Warren Buffett $BRK invested in Japanese Trading Companies
Daye Deng, Co-Founder and Editor of the Value Punks newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast to discuss his articles that are deep dives on Japanese Trading Companies and why Warren Buffett invested in Japan.
Value Punks article on Japanese Trading Companies: https://valuepunks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-japanese-trading-companies
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:26] History of the Japanese trading companies and Warren Buffett
[6:59] Why trading so important in Japanese economy
[12:37] Why Buffett made his first investment in Japan
[22:23] Breaking down of Sogo Shosha (Japanese Trading Companies)
[26:38] Why Buffett holding his investment despite run-up
[28:21] Examples of corporate governance and capital allocation changes that Japanese trading companies specifically made to improve them
[37:54] Overview of the basket of 7 Japanese Trading Companies, and what Daye thinks is the most interesting/exciting; difference between tier one, tier two and tier three players, and how would Daye label the 5 companies Buffett invested in (Tier 1-3)
[43:16] Geopolitical reasons folks interested in Japan
[47:13] ESG in Japan
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Bill Chen on why the opportunity exists right now in publicly-traded Real Estate
Bill Chen, a real estate investor and Managing Director at Rhizome Partners, returns to the podcast to provide his latest insights on what's happening in publicly-traded real estate market, private real estate market and literally everything real estate in between.
For more information about Rhizome Partners, please visit: http://rhizomepartners.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:38] Discrepancy between publicly-traded real estate and private market value / what's going on in REITs
[4:27] How does current Real Estate environment relate to similar historical periods
[9:26] Bill Chen's current real estate thesis
[13:58] Liquidation premium and where we are in the real estate cycle
[22:43] Public market trades below the private market - why shouldn't public market real estate trade for discount to private market?
[26:45] Real estate diversification, geographic risk and tax breaks
[38:38] Running apartments buildings net debt
[43:25] How to finance a distress cycle and capital allocation strategies during this time
[52:51] Why invest in real estate vs. (for lack of a better term) a lot of other stuff right now
[1:01:21] Why Bill Chen thinks this opportunity exists right now in publicly traded real estate
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
HSP Capital's Harris Perlman unpacks vegetable canner, Seneca Foods $SENEA
Harris Perlman, Principal at HSP Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Seneca Foods Corporation (NASDAQ: SENEA), one of North America’s leading providers of packaged fruits and vegetables, with facilities located throughout the United States. (Note Harris' audio is not the greatest on this, but we did our best to adjust where we could.)
Harris' write-up: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wAm1w3eEZCHCfY-e1Lzu0gvyGW7uN4KL/view
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:46] Overview of Seneca Foods $SENEA and why its interesting
[6:22] Asset value / LIFO accounting
[14:24] Why $SENEA isn't the ultra-commodity terrible business most people associate with canned vegetables?
[22:36] Canned vegetables industry
[24:46] $SENEA corporate history and background
[31:38] What happened with $SENEA from 2021-2023, specifically with inflation
[36:16] $SENEA understanding downside risks, specifically regarding insider control, governance, debt
[44:12] Investing in capital expenditures - expand Del Monte capacity
[46:48] How Harris thinks $SENEA thesis will play out
[48:41] Private label trend
[53:37] $SENEA competitive analysis
[57:09] Recent $SENEA financial performance
[1:00:40] Final thoughts on $SENEA
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets September 2023
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this September 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on Amazon FTC case, Scultpor Capital Management bid, monthly antitrust update, and more!
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:49] What's been going on - September 2023: update on antitrust cases and valuing the deals
[8:45] Large mergers/acquisitions and how to better understand why firms choose the paths they do
[14:09] Sculptor Capital Management bid
[17:25] Best case for shareholder activism and natural corporate defense of smallness
[20:48] Amazon FTC case
[30:22] Amazon iRobot
[35:30] FTC being aggressive bringing losing cases
[38:58] Final thoughts for September 2023: oil and gas, thoughts on the space overall
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
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But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Lionel Hutz' breakdown and analysis of the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit $SAVE merger DOJ case
Lionel Hutz, Editor of the Lionel Hutz Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast today to discuss the JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) / Spirit (NYSE: SAVE) merger DOJ case.
Lionel's JetBlue/Spirit write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/in-the-spirit-of-competition
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:48] What is so interesting about the JetBlue / Spirit DOJ case
[4:18] JetBlue / Spirit merger saga - background
[11:34] Why is the "Northeast Alliance" relevant
[20:26] DOJ case - "Route Pair Analysis" / "Local Market Pairs
[27:06] Airline market / thoughts on divestitures
[32:44] DOJ argument about relevant markets
[44:03] Hurdles for DOJ to show anti-competitive effects
[47:15] Notion of "Hot Docs" and their relevance to the trial
[54:07] Judge for this case, his background and why this matters
[59:08] Consensus around JetBlue's paying a huge premium for Spirit. Why doesn't JetBlue just walk?
[1:06:34] Department of Transportation joined the DOJ to block the merger - what this means?
[1:14:12] Trial scheduled to start October 16, could there be a settlement between now and then?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Grizzly Rock Capital's Kyle Mowery + Mike Holt on secular tailwinds for silicon metal producer $GSM
Kyle Mowery and Mike Holt, CFA, Managing Partner / Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst, respectively, at Grizzly Rock Capital joins the podcast today to discuss their thesis on Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ: GSM), a leading producer globally of silicon metal, silicon-based and manganese-based specialty alloys.
For more information about Grizzly Rock Capital, please visit: https://www.grizzlyrockcapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:47] Who is Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ: GSM) and why are they interesting?
[3:39] $GSM valuation
[7:52] What Grizzly Rock Capital thinks the market is misunderstanding about $GSM
[10:51] Global supply / demand curve for silicon metal in China + IRA demand
[17:51] How much of $GSM earnings come from solar currently
[20:01] Evaluating $GSM on an asset valuation basis
[23:53] Management evaluation and semi-controlling shareholder / long term vision
[29:40] Capital allocation strategy
[32:52] Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and solar demand
[35:49] Plants coming online in North America and how that affects $GSM
[38:38] Outlook on European assets
[40:56] Licensing off EV patents and maintenance capex
[44:57] How Grizzly Rock Capital looking at 2024 earnings
[47:15] Bridging the gap of Grizzly Rock Capital's 2024 expectations vs. $GSM historical performance
[53:14] $GSM final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit https://www.alpha-sense.com/solutions/financial-services/ today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
B. Riley's Dan Day describes Supply Side Platform (SSP), CTV + Magnite $MGNI thesis
Dan Day, CFA, Equity Research Analyst at B. Riley Securities, joins the podcast today to discuss the digital advertising business, SSPs and his thesis on Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGNI), the world’s largest independent sell-side advertising company (according the company's website). To get in touch with Dan Day, you can reach him via email here: dday@brileyfin.com
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:35] What is Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGNI) and why is it interesting to Dan
[8:57] Take rate on SSP's (effectively the bear case on SSPs)
[14:53] Adtech trends since early 2021
[19:11] Brand integrity - how much is that important amongst SSPs
[20:25] $MGNI valuation upside
[23:55] Programmatic recession vs. the stocks were overvalued in 2021
[25:48] CTV - what it means and how it works; why its important to $MGNI
[29:24] Who is $MGNI working with on CTV / competitive landscape
[32:55] $MGNI bear case on programmatic advertising - why don't publishers build out SSPs themselves? How are publishers thinking about building vs. buying SSPs?
[44:25] Anything missed on the Bull or Bear case for $MGNI / stock compensation
[50:07] Google antitrust case - what is the bull case for $MGNI
[59:24] Odds that Google loses this trial and/or splits out SSP
[1:03:58] One thing that market generalists miss regarding $MGNI
[1:08:26] Channel checks on media industry
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Artem Fokin discusses Burford winning the YPF case + fundamental thesis post-trial $BUR
Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast (for the fourth time) to discuss Burford winning the YPF case and the fundamental thesis post-trial.
For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0
Artem's second appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/OIFGrfx1O88
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:41] Burford won the case - quick overview of the case and how we arrived at this final judgement
[15:15] Enforcement and collection
[28:55] Examples of collection efforts
[33:14] Timing of enforcement and potential settlement payouts
[44:02] Tax implications
[54:22] Why hasn't $BUR management answered the question about whether any of the funds they manage bought YPF?
[1:03:35] $BUR core business
[1:14:04] $BUR asset management business model / recent results / management and employee incentives
[1:28:26] $BUR valuation without YPF included
[1:39:38] ROE on the core business on a per share basis and final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Value Situations' Conor Maguire shares Marlowe plc $MRL.L thesis + TIC segment catalyst
Conor Maguire, Founder and Editor of the Value Situations Newsletter, joins the podcast for his second appearance to share his thesis on Marlowe plc (LSE: MRL), provider of a broad range of compliance software and services in areas which pose a high risk for businesses.
For more information about Conor Maguire and Value Situations Substack: https://valuesits.substack.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:41] Overview and investing thesis on Marlowe plc (LSE: MRL
[13:49] $MRL's TIC segment - what is the catalyst here
[18:11] Potential bidders for TIC segment
[25:12] Management incentives
[30:58] Marlowe $MRL.L bear case
[40:58] FCF and $MRL.L moving forward
[47:24] Risk factors / what worries Conor about $MRL.L
[53:09] How does $MRL.L thesis fit Conor's overall investing framework?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Ave Maria Focused Fund's Chadd Garcia talks eDreams, travel subscription platform in Europe $EDR.MC
Chadd Garcia, Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst at Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Focused Fund, joins the podcast for his second appearance to share his thesis on eDreams ODIEGO (MSE - Madrid Stock Exchange: EDR), travel subscription platform and one of the largest e-commerce businesses in Europe.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:43] Overview of eDreams ODIGEO $EDR.MC
[9:27] eDreams' overall vision and current valuation
[13:34] Prime model and its potential growth in European markets
[17:30] How eDreams is different from TripAdvisor / why eDreams the one to crack the membership model
[23:13] Costco comparison
[25:24] Churn rate / U.S. investor perspective on eDreams / changing disclosures
[34:07] Competitive landscape, in particular, response from Booking as eDreams grows
[38:45] Hotels initiative / breaking into the U.S. market
[43:13] Capital allocation strategy
[47:20] Final thoughts on eDreams: risks to consider / headwinds / Chadd's personal experience using eDreams platform
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets August 2023
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this August 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on the FTC in general, Horizon/Amgen case, deep dive into CVRs and, of course, the Microsoft / Activision deal.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:43] What's been going on - August 2023; starting with FTC in general
[7:12] State of the FTC, Anti-trust
[11:16] Horizon/Amgen case
[17:30] Deep dive into CVRs
[29:42] Can CVRs present a little risk adjusted alpha?
[35:29] Microsoft / Activision deal
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/