Tidbits from the Ville

Are Home Prices Headed Toward a Bubble Territory.  Tune in today to find out.

In a year when we’re learning to do so much remotely, homebuying is no exception. From going to work to attending school, grocery shopping, and even seeing our doctors online, digital practices have changed the way we live.

This year, rather than delaying their home purchases, buyers – alongside their trusted real estate professionals – turned to the Internet to do more than just a typical home search. In some cases, they bought homes without even stepping foot inside. Jessica Lautz, Vice President of Demographics and Behavioral Insights at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“People really didn’t buy houses sight-unseen, traditionally. It’s still not a huge number, but it has gone up, and we have definitely seen that trend accelerate.”

According to NAR, throughout the coronavirus pandemic, one in every 20 homebuyers purchased a house sight-unseen.

Today, real estate professionals are using digital practices to help homebuyers and sellers walk through many steps in the process virtually. While following the regulations set forth by the CDC and all local guidelines, this year, agents quickly empowered buyers and sellers with virtual tours, 3D floor plans, high-quality photos, videos, online open houses, and more. For those who had homebuying and selling needs in 2020, trusted advisors made it possible in many markets.

“Buyers viewed five homes online and four homes in-person during the pandemic, compared to nine homes in-person in 2019, according to NAR. This was the first year NAR asked buyers to specify the number of homes toured virtually.”

In true 2020 fashion, virtual practices helped buyers safely narrow down their top choices, so they didn’t have to unnecessarily walk into more homes than they needed to see throughout the process.

At a time when health and safety are top priorities, current technology is making it possible for buyers and sellers to move their real estate plans forward at their own comfort levels, even through a worldwide pandemic. For many, this means buyers no longer have to physically tour every home they want to see, and sellers don’t need to open their doors over and over again throughout the process. Safety can come first and trusted real estate professionals are here to help.

Is Buying a Home Today a Good Financial Move?

There’s no doubt 2020 has been a challenging year. A global pandemic coupled with an economic recession has caused heartache for many. However, it has also prompted more Americans to reconsider the meaning of “home.” This quest for a place better equipped to fulfill our needs, along with record-low mortgage rates, has skyrocketed the demand for home purchases.

This increase in demand, on top of the severe shortage of homes for sale, has also caused more bidding wars and thus has home prices appreciating rather dramatically. Some, therefore, have become cautious about buying a home right now.

The truth of the matter is, even though homes have appreciated by a whopping 6.7% over the last twelve months, the cost to buy a home has actually dropped. This is largely due to mortgage rates falling by a full percentage point.

Let’s take a look at the monthly mortgage payment on a $300,000 house one year ago, and then compare it with that same home today, after it has appreciated by 6.7% to $320,100

You’ll actually save $87 dollars a month by purchasing that home today, which equates to over one thousand dollars a year.

But isn’t the economy still in a recession?

Yes, it is. That, however, may make it the perfect time to buy your first home or move up to a larger one. Tom Gil, a Harvard trained negotiator and real estate investor, recently explained:

“When volatile assets are facing recessions, hard assets, such as gold and real estate, thrive. Historically speaking, residential real estate has done better compared to other markets during and after recessions.”

That thought is substantiated by the fact that homeowners have 40 times the net worth of renters. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist for First American Financial Corporation, recently said:

“Despite the risk of volatility in the housing market, numerous studies have demonstrated that homeownership leads to greater wealth accumulation when compared with renting. Renters don’t capture the wealth generated by house price appreciation, nor do they benefit from the equity gains generated by monthly mortgage payments, which become a form of forced savings for homeowners.”

Bottom Line

With home prices still increasing and mortgage rates perhaps poised to begin rising as well, buying your first home, or moving up to a home that better fits your current needs, likely makes a ton of sense.

Today I talk about why it is important to list your home with an agent vs. trying to sell it yourself.  There are a number of good reasons including safety for you and your family.

• Today, it’s more important than ever to have an expert you trust to guide you as you sell your house
• From your safety throughout the process to the complexity of negotiating the deal, you need a professional on your side.
• Before you decide to take on the challenge of selling your house on your own, let’s connect to discuss your options.

Call us today at the Hartman Real Estate Team to discuss your options of selling your home.

In today's episode, I talk briefly about our traveling experiences to Austin, TX last week as well as what I observed in airports, hotels, and restaurants. 

My wife and I had a wonderful time visiting our son and daughter-in-law in Austin, TX and I believe the economy is doing better than I expected or see what is reported in the media.

We still have a long ways to go, overall people are safe, respecting each other's space, and are wanting to interact and transact.  Have a great Monday.

Yesterday I took the time to look at 4 Reasons why the Election won't dampen the housing market.

1) Demand

2) Low-Interest Rates

3) Price Appreciation

4) History

Ali Wolf from Chief Economist at Meyers Research quoted:

"History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November.  In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle.  This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year as long as the economy stays on track."

Top Three Reasons Homeowners are NOT putting their House on the Market according to Zillow Report:

1. 34% life is too uncertain right now
2. 31% financial uncertainty
3. 25% COVID-19 health concerns

Finally, Jeff Tucker from Zillow Senior Economist quoted:

"Homeowners who feel like is uncertain right now may think they can still get a strong price if they delay selling until they have more clarity.  The catch is that waiting to sell may raise the cost of the trade-up.  This fall's record low mortgage rates, which make a trade-up more affordable on a monthly basis, are not guaranteed to last."

Rent vs. Buy: How to Decide What’s Best for You

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, median rent continues to rise. With today’s low mortgage rates, there’s a great opportunity for current renters to make a move into homeownership that stretches each dollar a little bit further.

While the best timeline to buy a home is different for everyone, the question remains: Should I continue renting or is it time for me to buy? The answer depends on your current situation and your future plans, so here are some thoughts to help you decide if you’re ready to own a home of your own.

1. Rent Will Continue to Increase

This is one of the top reasons why renters decide to move because in most cases, rent will continue increasing each year. As noted above, the U.S. Census Bureau recently released its quarterly homeownership report, and as the graph below shows, median rent is climbing year after year. When you own a home, you’ll lock in your monthly payment for the life of your loan, creating consistency and predictability in your payments. Rent vs. Buy: How to Decide What’s Best for You | MyKCM

2. Freedom to Customize

This is a big decision-making point for many people who want to be able to paint, renovate, and make home upgrades. In many cases, landlords determine all of these selections and prefer you do not alter them as a renter. As a homeowner, you have the freedom to decorate and personalize your home to truly make it your own.

3. Privacy

When renting, your landlord has access to your space in case of an emergency. If you own your home, however, you’re the one to decide who can come inside. Given today’s health concerns around the pandemic, this may be a growing priority for you.

4. Flexibility for Relocation

If you’re renting, it may be easier to move quickly should you have a job transfer or simply decide it’s time for a change. When you’re a homeowner and need to sell your house, this might take a little more time. Today, however, with the housing market’s low inventory, this may no longer be the case. Homes are selling at a record-breaking pace, so you may have more flexibility than you think.

5. Building Equity

When you pay your rent, your landlord earns the equity the property gains. If you own your home, the benefits of your investment go directly toward your net worth. This is savings you’ll be able to use in the future for things like sending children to college, starting a new business, buying a bigger home, or simply downsizing to save for retirement.

6. Tax Advantages

When you own your home, there are additional that work in your favor as well. You can deduct things like your property taxes and mortgage interest (Always make sure you check with your accountant to see which tax-deductible benefits apply to your situation). When you rent, however, the tax benefits are directed to your landlord.

Bottom Line

It’s up to you to decide if you’d prefer to rent or buy, and it’s different for every person. If you’d like to learn more about the pros and cons of each, as well as resources to help you along the way, let’s connect to discuss your options. This way, you can make a confident and informed decision with a trusted expert on your side.

In today's episode I talk about 4 Reasons Why the Election Won't dampen the Housing Market:

Tomorrow, Americans will decide our President for the next four years. That decision will have a major impact on many aspects of life in this country, but the residential real estate market will not be one of them.

Analysts will try to measure the impact feasible changes in regulations might have on housing, the effect of a possible first-time buyer program, and any number of other situations based on who wins. The housing market, however, will remain strong for four reasons:

1. Demand Is Strong among Millennials

The nation’s largest generation began entering the housing market last year as they reached the age to marry and have children – two key drivers of homeownership. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported:

“Millennials, long viewed as perennial home renters who were reluctant or unable to buy, are now emerging as a driving force in the U.S. housing market’s recent recovery.”

2. Mortgage Rates Are Historically Low

All-time low-interest rates are also driving demand across all generations. Strong demand created by this rate drop has countered other economic disruptions (e.g., pandemic, recession, record unemployment).

In addition, Freddie Mac just forecasted mortgage rates to remain low through next year:

“One of the main drivers of the strong housing recovery is historically low mortgage interest rates…Given weakness in the broader economy, the Federal Reserve’s signal that its policy rate will remain low until inflation picks up, and no signs of inflation, we forecast mortgage rates to remain flat over the next year. From the third quarter of 2020 through the end of 2021, we forecast mortgage rates to remain unchanged at 3%.”

3. Prices Continue to Appreciate

The continued lack of supply of existing homes for sale coupled with the surge in buyer demand has experts forecasting strong price appreciation over the next twelve months.

4. History Says So

Though it’s true that the market slows slightly in November when it’s a Presidential election year, the pace returns quickly. Here’s an explanation as to why from the Homebuilding Industry Report by BTIG:

“This may indicate that potential homebuyers may become more cautious in the face of national election uncertainty. This caution is temporary, and ultimately results in deferred sales, as the economy, jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence all have far more meaningful roles in the home purchase decision than a Presidential election result in the months that follow.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for Meyers Research, also notes:

“History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November. In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle. This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year as long as the economy stays on track.”

Bottom Line

There’s no doubt this is one of the most contentious presidential elections in our nation’s history. The outcome will have a major impact on many sectors of the economy. However, as Matthew Speakman, an economist at Zillow, explained last week:

“While the path of the overall economy is likely to be most directly dictated by coronavirus-related and political developments in the coming months, recent trends suggest that the housing market – which has basically withstood every pandemic-related challenge to this point – will continue its strong momentum in the months to come.”

Today I talk about the question we often get when getting ready to sell a home?  Should I Renovate My house before I sell it?

• In today’s hyper-competitive market, buyers are often willing to overlook cosmetic or minor repair needs if it means snagging a home in their price range.
• With so few houses available for sale today, you may be able to skip the bigger renovations before you sell and cash in on the current demand for your house.
• If you’re ready to move, let’s connect to determine your best next steps in this sellers’ market.

Have an outstanding weekend and don't forget to set your clocks (fall back an hour) before going to bed on Saturday night.  Everyone will get an extra hour of sleep.

Today I talk about young Buyers purchasing their first homes.

“Home sales traditionally taper off toward the end of the year, but in September they surged beyond what we normally see during this season…I would attribute this jump to record-low interest rates and an abundance of buyers in the marketplace, including buyers of vacation homes given the greater flexibility to work from home.”

What’s drawing so many buyers to the market?

As Yun mentioned, record-low interest rates are key. Today’s rates are strengthening purchasing power for buyers, too. Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, emphasizes:

“Mortgage rates today are on average more than a full percentage point lower than rates over the last five years.”

If you’re a homebuyer right now, there’s no question that you want to take advantage of this opportunity – and you’re not alone. Competition among buyers is definitely increasing as more buyers enter the market and mortgage interest rates remain so low.

Who’s planning to buy a home right now?

Today’s affordability is appealing to all generations and seems to be especially attractive to younger buyers who want to begin growing their wealth through homeownership. There’s a distinct increase this year in the percentage of those in younger generations searching for homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) notes:

“Between the third quarters of 2019 and 2020, the share of Gen Z adults planning a home purchase rose three points to 14%. Millennials, however, are the generation most likely to be considering buying a home (22%).”

Finally, I had the opportunity to sit in the EDC meeting last night attending as a member of the EDC.  We are living in a city that is growing and expanding exponentially, despite the National Pandemic.  There are so many bright spots happening within our City:

1) 39 Building Permits have been issued YTD up from 33 Last year at this time

2) 7 Commercial Permits have been issued YTD which include Herzog Foundation, Shamrock, Nodaway Bank, Star Development White Box at the Marketplace, KC RV, White Iron Ridge, and Shoreline.  There are many more coming and I can't wait to share more about them.

3) Sales and Use tax is up 42% Year Over Year

4) Sales Tax is up 17% Year Over Year

5) 670 Business Licenses have been mailed out to businesses for 2021 Renewal

Today, I talk about the fact that there are people in the industry are talking about how we are going to see record-high foreclosures as well as Real Estate crash.  I spend about 1 1/2 to 2 hours a day researching our industry and I am of the opinion this will not happen as it did back during the last housing crisis.  Here is why:

1) If you look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Weekly unemployment filings in the millions week ending 10/17/2020 there were 800,000 to 900,000 filings down from 6.9 million on 3/28/2020.

2) Those currently receiving Unemployment Insurance according to the Department of Labor is 8.4 million down from 24.9 million in May 2020.

3) The Number of mortgages in active forbearance decreased dramatically.  Week ending 10/15/2020 is 2.99 million are in forbearance down from 4.76 million on 5/29/2020 (Source: McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker)

4) The Percentage of Overall Forebearances is decreasing according to the Mortgage Banker Association (MBA).  Currently, that number is 6.32% vs. 8.47% in May 2020

5) The Percentage of Forbearances is decreasing with Fannie/Freddie, Ginnie Mae, and Private label according to the MBA.

6) Of the5, 289,000 families granted forbearance, this is what happened upon the expiration of the plan: Source: Blacknight

- 2,801,000 Forebearance Extended

- 1,804,000 Removed while Performing

- 363,000 Paid off a mortgage through resale and or ended the life of their mortgage

- 267,000 expired / delinqueent in loss mitgation

- 54,000 expired or were delinquent

7) Quote by Rick Sharga EVP of RealtyTrac: "We'll certainly see more repossessions by lenders once the foreclosure moratoria have ended, but maybe not as many as people might expect.  Given the record amount of homeowner equity, it seems likely that many homeowners in financial distress will opt to take advantage of strong demand among home buyers and sell their property rather than risk losing it to a foreclosure auction."

8) Distribution of Loans in Active Forbearance by Current combined loan to value (91% of at least 11% equity) Source: Blacknight

- 62% less than 70%

- 17% between 70-79%

- 12% between 80-90%

- 8% between 90-99%

- 1% are 100% or Higher

Finally, I close with a quote from Ivy Zelman Founder of Zelman and Associates:

"The Likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent."

Good Monday morning,  Stay safe out there today with slick conditions expected.  

Today I talk about What equity can do for homeownership and how that can be used to either buy a new home or enable homeowners to help future generations.  The Federal Reserve, in an addendum to their recent Survey of Consumer Finances explains:

“There are numerous ways families can transmit wealth and resources across generations. Families can directly transfer their wealth to the next generation in the form of a bequest. They can also provide the next generation with inter vivos transfers (gifts), for example, providing down payment support to enable a home purchase or a substantial wedding gift.”

The Federal Reserve also explains another way wealth (including the additional net worth generated by an increase in home equity) can benefit future generations:

“In addition to direct transfers or gifts, families can make investments in their children that indirectly increase their wealth. For example, families can invest in their children’s educational success by paying for college or private schools, which can in turn increase their children’s ability to accumulate wealth.”

I also discuss Veronika Bondarenko article in Inman News regarding the Rent Price increase across the county rose above 2% for the first time since the pandemic started.  The largest increase happened this past month in Phoenix, AZ where there is a high number of young professionals moving there for work.  Rents in the City rose by 5.8% while Arizona's Tucson and North Carolina's Charlotte followed close at 4.8% and 4%, respectively. 

In my final segment, I talk about an article from Jennifer Somers about The State of The Restaurant Industry.  It is estimated that 100,000 restaurants will close in 2020.   $240 billion in industry losses are projected.  Folks we have to do everything we can to support our local restaurants in Smithville, MO.  Staying local and buying local will help these restaurants survive.

Today I talked about Real Estate numbers and specifically about Rent Payments around the nation as well as Mortgage Purchase Applications.

• As of October 6, apartment rent payments for October were unchanged compared to the same period last year, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council. The NMHC’s rent tracker shows that 79.4% of apartment households have made full or partial rent payments for October and is actually up slightly from the 76.4% who had made such payments by September 6. A recent study shows that Las Vegas and New Orleans led the country in missed September rent payments. This report further highlights the uneven impact of pandemic-related unemployment as both of those cities are highly dependent on the hard-hit tourism and hospitality sectors. As a result, unemployment is higher in both cities, leading to more missed rent payments.
• Mortgage purchase applications for the week ending October 2 increased 2% from the previous week and are up 21% compared to the same week the prior year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications have now been tracking above the prior year’s rate for 20 consecutive weeks. The MBA’s refinance index jumped 8% from the prior week, hitting its highest level since mid-August. Refinance loans are currently about two-thirds of total mortgage activity.

Selling Your House is the Right Move, Right Now:

1) Demand from homebuyers has skyrocketed this year, which means today’s sellers are poised to win big.

2) This ideal moment in time to sell your house won’t last forever, though.

3) With more sellers coming to the market in the spring, waiting until next year means buyers will have more choices, so your home may not stand out from the crowd.

In my Smithville update, I talked about Governor Mike Parson's visiting the Double-A Co-Op and A Meal that counts downtown yesterday.  It was a great day for Smithville.

In Today's episode, I talk about Why Today's Options Will Save Homeowners from Foreclosure.  

Many housing experts originally voiced concern that the mortgage forbearance program (which allows families impacted financially by COVID to delay mortgage payments to a later date) could lead to an increase in foreclosures when forbearances end.

Some originally forecasted that up to 30% of homeowners would choose to enter forbearance. Less than 10% actually did, and that percentage has been dropping steadily. Black Knight recently reported that the national forbearance rate has decreased to 5.6%, with active forbearances falling below 3 million for the first time since mid-April.

Many of those still in forbearance are actually making timely payments. Christopher Maloney of Bloomberg Wealth recently explained:

“Almost one-quarter of all homeowners who have demanded forbearance are still current on their mortgages…according to the latest MBA data.”

However, since over two million homeowners are still in forbearance, some experts are concerned that this might lead to another wave of foreclosures like we saw a little over a decade ago during the Great Recession. Here is why this time is different.

There Will Be Very Few Strategic Defaults

During the housing crash twelve years ago, many homeowners owned a house that was worth less than the mortgage they had on that home (called negative equity or being underwater). Many decided they would just stop making their payments and walk away from the house, which then resulted in the bank foreclosing on the property. These foreclosures were known as strategic defaults. Today, the vast majority of homeowners have significant equity in their homes. This dramatically decreases the possibility of strategic defaults.

Aspen Grove Solutions, a business consulting firm, recently addressed the issue in a study titled Creating Positive Forbearance Outcomes:

“Unlike in 2008, strategic defaults have not emerged as a serious problem and seems unlikely to emerge given stronger expectations for property price increases, a record low inventory of homes, and stable residential underwriting standards leading up to the crisis which has reduced the number of owners who are underwater.”

There Are Other Options That Were Not Available the Last Time

A decade ago, there wasn’t a forbearance option, and most banks did not put in other programs, like modifications and short sales, until very late in the crisis.   Today, homeowners have several options because banks understand the three fundamental differences in today’s real estate market as compared to 2008:

1. Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.

2. The real estate market has a shortage of listings for sale. In 2008, homes for sale flooded the market.

3. Prices are appreciating. In 2008, prices were depreciating dramatically.

In Today's episode, I am going to discuss the upcoming visit from Missouri Governor to Smithville, Double A Co-op, and A Meal That Counts a new business in downtown Smithville and some recent facts and figures posted in Outfront a weekly newsletter published by Keller Williams.

Starting with the Smithville update: Double A Co-op and A Meal That Counts is now open in downtown Smithville.  The owners are tremendous people and I joined the highest level of Membership the Co-op offers this past Saturday.    Governor Mike Parsons will be touring the facility on Thursday afternoon at 2:00 p.m.  He will be touring the store and talking about the importance of farmers and Co-ops.

In your National News update, U.S. Existing home sales reached the fastest sales price since 2006 in August, as sales climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 million.  This was a 10.5% increase compared to August 2019.  Inventory remains extremely low at 3 months of supply and overall listings are down 19% compared to August 2019.

Home Prices continue to accelerate.  NAR Pending sales were up 8.8% in August

New Home sales were up 43% year over year in August, as low mortgage rates and the low inventory of existing homes combined with remote work to put new homes in high demand.  This was above the consensus forecast and the fastest pace since 2006.

Today we talk about how Real Estate will finish strong in 2020.  What Realtors have been working on with buyers and sellers over the past 30 - 60 days will be completed by the end of the year.  Anything that is signed (active contract) will close between November and December of 2020. Here are a couple of key quotes from Lawrence Young and Zillow:

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors

“Home sales continue to amaze, and there are plenty of buyers in the pipeline ready to enter the market…Further gains in sales are likely for the remainder of the year, with mortgage rates hovering around 3% and with continued job recovery.”

Zillow

“Zillow’s predictions for seasonally adjusted home prices and pending sales are more optimistic than previous forecasts because sales and prices have stayed strong through the summer months amid increasingly short inventory and high demand.

The pandemic also pushed the buying season further back in the year, adding to recent sales. Future sources of uncertainty including lapsed fiscal relief, the long-term fate of policies supporting the rental and mortgage market, and virus-specific factors, were incorporated into this outlook.”

In closing, we look at ProAthlete receiving the Mr. K Award given annually to the chamber's small business of the year.  Startland News Reports provided this update.

In Friday's episode, I talk about How to Prepare for a Bidding War.  Some interesting facts taken from NASDAQ, National Association of Realtors, Bank of America, and Realtor.com state that:

55% of August 2020 home sales resulted in a bidding war.  

69% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month.  With so few houses available today, competition is heating up among homebuyers.  Be ready for a bidding war with these 3 tips.

Keep in mind there are few homes and limited land for sale this year and you have to be prepared to win.

1) Get Pre-Approved

2) Know What you Can Afford

3) Make Your Best Offer

Being prepared means you'll be able to move quickly and confidently in today's competitive marketplace.  Reach out to the Hartman Real Estate Team today to talk about how we can prepare you for a potential bidding war.

Good Thursday morning, In today's episode I am going to talk about the number of folks who have not reached out to their mortgage provider despite having difficulty paying their mortgage during these challenging times.

530,000 homeowners who became delinquent after the pandemic began did not take advantage of forbearance, despite being eligible to ask for the plan.  These responses reflect a need to provide better information to all homeowners (lump-sum payment) is not the only repayment option. 

Additionally, 205,000 homeowners who did not extend their forbearance after its term ended in June or July became delinquent on their loans.  We need to examine who these people are and why they are not extending their options.

The challenge, according to Matt Hulstein, Staff Attorney at non-profit Chicago Volunteer Legal Services, is "A lot of homeowners aren't aware of this option."

Why Some Homeowners Haven't Opted for Forbearance:

69.88 % Fear of Lump Sump Payment / 56.63% Didn't know they could request forbearance / 20.48% Servicer doesn't allow / 13.25% Servicer required proof / 34.94% Difficulty connecting / 31.33% other.

It is important to note that any homeowner experiencing financial hardship has the right to request forbearance.  If you are unfamiliar with the plans available contact your mortgage provider or reach out to me or someone or the Hartman Real Estate Team".  We will talk through all of your options.

In today's episode, I discuss some key points in the latest NFID Small Business Economic Trends - September 2020 Report.  Some of the key points are:

1) Housing is probably the hottest sector, posting record home sales last month, and double-digit price increases.  More construction firms have unfilled job openings than in any other industry.  Durable goods were strong except for aircraft, autos were weak after several strong months.  Non-Defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft) were also very strong

2) The ratio of inventories to sales in retailing is at a record low level, spurring more production and imports to fill the gap.

3) The Fed has succeeded in creating inflation in the asset market, stocks and bonds are at record levels, but alas, no goods and services inflation.  Home prices rose at double-digit rates because the demand for homes exceeded supply, the traditional cause of "inflation" (not indirectly included in the inflation measures).  But no significant increase in the overall price level. - no inflation

Today we talk about what is going on with Housing Inventory across the country as well in the State of Missouri and right here in Clay County.  The one obstacle we face as Realtors across the country and locally is lack of inventory availability.  We're at a severe shortage across the country in the number of available homes for the number of people wanting them because the home has grown, the value of the home has grown over the pandemic.  Interesting quote from Realtor.com "Since the beginning of Covid pandemic in March, nearly 400,000 fewer homes have been listed compared to last year, leaving a gaping hole in the US Housing inventory."  As a result, home prices are accelerating at double last year's pace."

According to the Kansas City Association of Realtors and the Heartland MLS Closed Sales for September are up 12.5%, The Average Sales Price is up 11.3% to $264,359, the Days on Market is down -15%, Percentage of Original List Price Received is up 2.4% at 100.1%, inventory is down -60% from 885 homes in 2019 to 354 for sale in September 2020.  Finally, the Supply of inventory is .8 months down 61.9% from last September.

Today we talk about Six Reasons You'll Win by Selling with a Real Estate Agent This Fall vs. trying to sell your own house by For Sale By Owner (FSB0).  I discuss those six reasons briefly.  The material is provided by Keeping Current Matters:

1) Your Safety is a Priority

2) A Powerful Online Strategy is a must to Attract a Buyer.

3) There are too many negotiations

4) You won't know if your Purchaser is qualified for a mortgage

5) FSBoing has become more difficult from a legal standpoint

6) You Net more money when using an Agent

In your Smithville update, I remind everyone about Price Chopper in Smithville being closed for the transition to the new store through Wednesday.  This is something I talked about last week in my Podcast.  It seems like a lot of people were caught off guard by this.  Store shelves were very empty on Friday evening and throughout the weekend.

Today I talk briefly about an Interview with Dara Khosrowashahi by Allysia Finley from the Wall Street Journal.

I also wanted to make a Public Service Announcement "PSA" about the upcoming November 3rd, 2020 election.  Have a great weekend.

Owning a home is a great way to build family wealth.  For many families, homeownership serves as a form of "forced savings"  Every time you pay your mortgage, you're contributing to your net worth by increasing the equity.  The Average Net Worth of a homeowner today is $120,000 and combined with Other Assets of $135,000 the National Average is $255,000 versus The Average Net Worth of a Renter is $6,300.  According to this year's survey, 35% of Americans chose real estate over stocks, savings accounts, gold, and bonds. 

I also discuss James Dornbrook article in yesterday's Kansas City Business Journal on how Ford contributes $2 billion to KC Gross Domestic Product.  The facility employs 7,250 people and creates another 49,000 indirect jobs throughout Missouri, according to a study by Boston Consulting Group.

Today I share about the benefits of buying a one-story home.  According to NAHB "Nationwide, the share of new homes with two or more stories fell from 53% in 2018 to 52% in 2019, while the share of new homes with one story grew from 47% to 48%.  Some distinct advantages of single-story homes are:

1. Energy Efficient

2. Easier to Maintain

3. Accessible for Everyone

4. Good Resell Potential

Finally, in my local update, I discuss briefly the Agenda for this evening's Board of Alderman meeting via Videoconference / Zoom.  The meeting will be held at 7:00 p.m.

In Monday's episode, I talk about the Share of Mortgages in forbearance drops to lowest levels since April 2020; consumerfinancegov.com defines "Forbearance is when your mortgage servicer or lender allows you to temporarily pay your mortgage at a lower payment or pause paying your mortgage. You will have to pay the payment reduction or the paused payments back later."  The total share of mortgage loans in forbearance decreased from 6.93 % of servicers' portfolio volume to 6.87 % during the week ending Sept 20th, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest forbearance can call volume survey.

Missouri Update: The national unemployment rate in September decreased by 7.9% as payrolls grew by 661,000 jobs.  For the week ended Sept 26, about 7,300 people in Missouri filed initial unemployment claims, lower than any week since the initial surge of pandemic-related job losses in March.

Smithville Update:  Nothing sexy about waste.  The City of Smithville operates 29 wastewater pump stations.  Each pump station requires frequent inspection and maintenance by City staff to ensure they are operating as intended.  The capacity of these pump stations and common force mains are frequently the limiting factor in allowing development to occur within the City of Smithville.

Today I talk about Equity gain Year Over Year in the average home around the country and right here in Missouri.  According to Corelogic Q2 Data Across the country, Average Equity gained by Homeowners is around $9,800 which translates into $620 billion Total YOY equity gain by US Homeowners.  6.6% YOY percentage increase in total home equity.  In Missouri, we are over $10,000 average per homeowner.

Missouri Realtors Association reported its August 2020 numbers.  There were 8,803 Residential properties sold a 5.6 + increase vs. August 2019.  $197,500 is the Residential Median Sales Price a 12.2% increase vs. August 2019, $238,646 was the Residential Average Sales price a +14% increase vs. August 2019 and finally, there were over 2.1 billion in dollar volumes transacted a 20.3% increase vs. 2019 volume.

The final segment I am excited to share about my friend Jennifer Justice and her co-host Eric launched a podcast on October 1st, 2020 called Get Real KC.  It is an interview-style podcast that interviews all sorts of experts.  It is focused on consumer-facing Real Estate.  Both of them did an excellent job interviewing Bobbi Howe Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors president.  You can search for the podcast on Apple Podcast or Spotify "Get Real KC"

Today In Tidbits from the Ville I talk about an article in the Wall Street Journal from Julie Jargon entitled Roadschooling is More Fun.  A family of five travels over 11,000 miles while attending school virtually.

I also talk about Pure Fishing located near the KCI airport will be relocating to a 542,640 square foot facility which will include the transfer of 160 Kansas City area employees into the new facility in the first quarter of 2021.

Finally, I continue to talk about FutureIQ and their assistance in helping the City update their Comprehensive Plan.  They have defined five character areas which include 169 Industrial Character Area, 169 South Character Area, Downtown Community Oasis, Hospital Bluff Character Area, and North Residential Character Area.

Today for both my National and State Update I discuss Steve Vockrodt article from the Kansas City Star on September 28th, 2020.  Missouri's low-income housing tax credit zeroed-out by Eric Greitens in 2017 is back.  I believe this will be a great thing for developers creating low-income housing for over 100,000 people across the State who are on a waiting list.

For the Smithville update, I discuss FutureIQs projections for our upcoming City over the next ten years.  Currently, it is estimated Smithville has a population of 9,632 residents with around 2,335 employees.  They expect our population to grow between 3500-4500 new residents with an additional 420-930 new employees added during the next ten years.  The projected 2030 base population will be around 13,100 to 14,200 residents with an employment base of 2,755 to 3,265 total employees.  Employment Growth = Local Jobs + Increased City Tax Revenue to support the infrastructure.

One of the questions we get asked all the time on our team is where are Home Prices headed in the next 12 months?  Although none of us are predictors of the future, I do lean towards the more optimistic projections of NAR stating 4.3% with an average between Zelman, Zillow, Fannie Mae, NAR, HPES, MBA, and Corelogic being at 3.87%

The Kansas City update talks about the new Aldi be built in the Kansas City Legends shopping center.

Finally, your Smithville update; I am pleased to announce that my clients are submitting their package today to the Smithville P&Z Department in preparations for the upcoming hearing on November 10th, 2020.  Tune in to learn more about the school.

Today I talk about the article in the Wall Street Journal written by Gwynn Guilford and Charity L. Scott "Is It Insane to Start a Business During Coronavirus?  Millions of Americans Don't Think So."

Americans are starting new businesses at the fastest rate in more than a decade, according to government data, seizing on pent-up demand and new opportunities after the pandemic shut down and reshaped the economy.....

In the State Update I share more from the article "The pandemic is actually inducing a surge in employer business startups that takes us back to the days before the decline in the Great Recession," said John Haltiwanger, an economist at the University of Maryland who studies the data.

Finally, in the local update, I talk about forming a Real Estate Team during the shut-down and how I put together a team that has now grown to a total of five agents including myself and we just hired an Administrative Assistant who starts on October 1st. 

Good Friday morning!!  Yesterday I shared on my social media sites the fact that Homeownership is one of the best ways to invest in your financial future, especially as your home equity grows.  Across the county, home equity was increasing before the health crisis swept our nation, and it continues to grow throughout the year, giving sellers powerful options in this market.  "U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by a total of nearly $620 billion since the second quarter of 2019, an increase of 6.6% year over year.

Right here in Missouri Year over Year (YOY), Home Equity Gain has been averaging $10,000 and the national average was $9,800.  

Yesterday evening at 5:45 p.m. Porters Ace Hardware in Smithville, Missouri had their grand opening.  The Porters family is a wonderful family that has contributed so much over the years in our community.  Their family has been great developers both on the residential and commercial front aspect of Real Estate. I personally shopped at Porters Ace Hardware last Sunday when I was looking at purchasing an air hose for my compressor.  They had a great selection, great service, and priced right.  Plus I was able to help keep dollars in Smithville, Missouri.

How exciting.  I  have made it to Apple Podcast.  Look us up "Tidbits from the Ville", hit subscribe and provide us feedback.  

Today we talk about the Shortage of Homes are pushing prices higher.  More people are holding off on listing their homes because they are having trouble finding another home to move into. 

The KC Business Journal reported that FedEx Ground is hiring 300 people for its new facility.  

Finally, there are only 18 homes for resale in Smithville.  This is a historic low.  Traditionally Smithville has average 89 housing starts each year and we are lower this year.

85% of us who are working need to help those who aren't.  Bigger Tips, Donations to our local food banks, Look around your own community.  Are there ways you can help the at-risk population?  We are seeing an epidemic of depression and suicide nationally.  Reach out to your neighbors who are lonely.  I am sure you can think of your own ways.  Then Just Do it.  

My Kansas City update talks about the Metro-North Mall Redevelopment which consists of mixed-use development (residential, retail, office, hotel, entertainment)  It is currently being financed by public-private financing; Private Equity, Debt, Cash ($121 million), and TIF Totaling $143 million.

My local update is about Cornerstone Coffee.  The ribbon-cutting is today at 11:15 a.m.  Please join us in celebrating Leeah Shipley grand opening!!

Today I talk about the Average Impact of one home sale in the State of Missouri.   According to the National Association of Realtors, The Average Impact of One Home Sale is $60,000 in Missouri.   I also talk about the August 2020 Update from Kansas City Association of Realtors and how new home sales are up 15.1 YOY and that the Supply of New Homes is down -45.9% from August 2019.  Finally, I continued to talk about the HDR Engineering Study presented to the Board of Alderman in August.  Housing Starts in Smithville have an average of 89 per year from 2001-2019.  The Average Persons per household is 2.7 which equates to an increased population of 240 persons/year.  Recently, Stover and Associates updated that we can expect Smithville to grow between 3500-4500 new residents between 2020-2030.

This morning I am excited about a new microphone I received over the weekend that will help the sound quality of my recordings.  In today's episode we talk about the Economic Impact Real Estate has on a typical new home as well as an existing home.  I share a little fact about the economic impact of not spending money money in today's economy and finally HDR Engineering was hired to conduct a study on the City of Smithville preparation of the Wastewater Master Plan.

Today we talk about the Shortage of homes Nationally and the average time a home is on the market.  AMC is beginning to show movies again and finally the excitement around Commercial Development in Smithville.

Today I continued to talk about the Significant Equity Homeowners have across the country.  77% of Homeowners have 20% or more equity in their homes.  In the Kansas City Update, I talk about the Development happening at Zona Rosa.  Finally, in the Smithville Update, the Alderman approved Resolution 827 authorizing and directing the  Mayor to execute an engineering agreement with TransSystems for Engineering and Design Services for the Bridgeport Roundabout.

Today on Tidbits from the Ville, I talk about the average equity homeowners have today as well as local stats from KCRAR “Heartland” and about the approval of Attic Storage a new storage facility located just south of the old Full Features Building in Smithville.

Today I talk briefly about the shift of buyer preferences to locate to lower density areas.  I also discuss the shift of KC Residents flocking to buy vacation homes in rural Missouri during the pandemic.  Our local update talks about the Herzog Foundation building a new 17,000 sq. foot building in Smithville.

Today's episode we talk about How Solid the Housing Market is despite the shock and awe of the pandemic.  We look at how inventory and supply of homes in Clay county are down significantly and finally, we look at Nodaway Bank's proposal in front of the Board of Alderman for approval on Tuesday evening.