Excess Returns
By Excess Returns
The Stimulus Deception | Rob Arnott Explains What Economists Are Getting Wrong
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today’s economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today’s markets using Research Affiliates’ capital markets expectations.
Full Paper:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1080-stimulus-does-not-stimulate
🎯 Topics Covered:
Why stimulus doesn't always stimulate economic growth
The hidden cost of high government spending
Lessons from Japan, Ireland, and the EU on fiscal policy
Why Keynes wouldn’t recognize today’s “Keynesianism”
The role of stimulus during crises like COVID and 2008
Tariffs as strategy vs. economic drag
Rob’s take on Trump, trade wars, and negotiating tactics
Crowding out: What debt does to private investment
Research Affiliates’ expected returns across major asset classes
Why large-cap U.S. stocks may be the most overvalued
The opportunity in value, small-cap, and international markets
The Hidden Logic of Options | Put-Call Parity Explained with Legos
In this episode of Teach Me Like I'm 5, options expert Kris Abdelmessih breaks down one of the most foundational—and misunderstood—concepts in options trading: put-call parity. Using Lego analogies, homemade spreadsheets, and Fast & Furious references, Kris shows how options are like building blocks you can combine to create any payoff you want—including replicating a stock itself.
Whether you're a beginner trying to understand options basics or a seasoned investor looking for deeper insights into synthetic positions and implied interest rates, this episode is packed with practical lessons presented in the most approachable way possible.
What We Cover:
Why calls and puts are “the same” through the lens of put-call parity
How to visualize and replicate stock payoffs using only options
The concept of synthetic positions: synthetic stock, calls, and puts
How put-call parity collapses complex strategies into basic building blocks
The real mechanics behind covered calls—and what they really are
How professional traders use options pricing to infer interest rates and stock borrowing conditions
A deep dive into "box spreads" and how they replicate zero-coupon bonds
Too Much Google, Tesla, Nvidia? | Wes Gray & Sri Narayan Explain a Smarter Way Out
In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most complex and pressing issues facing successful investors today: what to do with concentrated stock positions. Whether from employee stock compensation or a major investment win, holding too much of a single stock presents serious tax and diversification challenges. Our guests—Wes Gray of Alpha Architect, Sri Narayan of Cache Financial, and guest host Dave Nadig—break down the innovative solutions that are changing the game. From exchange funds to Section 351 conversions, this is a masterclass in modern wealth and risk management.
Topics Covered:
The problem with concentrated stock positions and why it’s getting worse
How stock-based compensation fuels investor overexposure
Why traditional exchange funds fall short—and how Cache is solving it
Understanding Section 351 ETF conversions and tax-deferred diversification
The mechanics behind Cache's NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 strategies
How exchange funds work: structure, lockups, and liquidity
Using ETFs to rebalance and solve diversification constraints
Real estate allocations and the 20% illiquid asset requirement
Costs, fees, and transparency of the modern exchange fund model
Regulatory and legal perspectives behind the structure
Practical advice for advisors and investors with low-basis positions
How to access, evaluate, and engage with Cache and Alpha Architect solutions
The Fourth Turning Is Now | Neil Howe on the Coming Financial Reset and Who Rebuilds What’s Broken
What does it mean to come of age during chaos—and how does that shape the generations who must lead us through it? In this thought-provoking episode of Rabbit Hole, Dave Nadig speaks with Neil Howe—author of The Fourth Turning Is Here—about the evolving role of Gen X in today's world, the generational dynamics underpinning societal shifts, and what history teaches us about crisis, community, and rebirth. This is not just a theory session—it’s a practical guide to understanding where we are in the cycle and what might come next.
Topics Covered:
Why generational transitions are slowing—and why that matters
The Gen X identity crisis: from latchkey kids to future elders
How community rises from conflict during fourth turnings
Millennials' collective investing mindset vs. Gen X contrarianism
The historical role of financial repression and inflation in crises
Parallels between Gen X and the Lost Generation
How institutions are built—and who builds them
Will the next societal reboot be state-driven or community-driven?
Global synchronization of generational crises and what that implies
What comes after the fourth turning—and how Gen X fits into it
What Investors Get Wrong About Trade Wars | Kai Wu
In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to break down his latest research piece, Investing Amid Trade Wars. Using over two dozen insightful visuals, Kai explores how investors should think about global trade exposure in an era of rising tariffs, economic nationalism, and geopolitical uncertainty. He makes the case for staying invested in high-quality multinational companies—especially those rich in intangible assets—and offers four actionable ways to build more resilient global portfolios. Topics Covered:
Why the market reaction to tariffs is both rational and potentially short-sighted
The long-term outperformance of global vs. domestic firms
How to define and measure global trade exposure at the company level
Real-world trade shocks and what they reveal about investor behavior
The four traits of resilient global firms
Why intangible-heavy businesses are uniquely positioned to weather trade disruptions
International vs. U.S. multinationals: hidden value in non-U.S. stocks
Practical suggestions for portfolio construction in a deglobalizing world
The Retail Rally Trap | Kris Sidial on Market Fragility and the Risks of Buy the Dip
In this episode, Kris Sidial joins Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba to break down the mechanics of tail risk hedging, why most volatility strategies fail, and how his team approaches dislocations in the market. We explore what's really driving volatility behind the scenes, the evolving market structure, and why the current environment may be far more precarious than it appears. If you’ve ever wondered how professional vol traders monetize chaos—or why volatility can stick around far longer than people expect—this episode is for you.
Topics Covered:
What tail risk funds are and why many of them underperform
How to build a long volatility strategy that doesn’t bleed capital
Why rebalancing is a critical component of portfolio resilience
Liquidity fragility and how it amplifies market moves
Retail's role in the latest rally and the fading institutional bid
Structural risks created by passive flows and policy shifts
Monetizing volatility spikes
The psychological traps that lead to poor volatility trading decisions
Why volatility might stay elevated for far longer than most expect
Mag Seven Margin Crunch | Cameron Dawson on Tariffs, Recession Risk and the Defensive Investing Trap
Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about,
Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.
Topics Covered:
Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data
The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China
Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading
What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us
How margin compression could trigger job cuts
The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off
Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points
Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives
Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills
Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos
The Market's Best-Kept Secret | Travis Prentice on Momentum's Surprising Edge
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack welcome Travis Prentice from Informed Momentum Company to discuss the ins and outs of momentum investing. Travis brings nearly three decades of momentum investing experience and shares valuable insights about momentum strategies, misconceptions, implementation challenges, and how momentum can be effectively combined with other factors. This conversation offers both beginning and experienced investors a comprehensive look at this powerful investment strategy.
Topics Covered:
What momentum investing is and how it differs from growth investing
The mechanics of cross-sectional momentum and relative strength
Common misconceptions about momentum strategies
How fundamental data can enhance momentum strategies
The significance of continuous vs. dynamic momentum
Portfolio construction, sector concentration, and rebalancing approaches
Momentum performance across different market caps and geographies
The risk profile of momentum vs. value strategies
Momentum crashes - what they are and how to mitigate them
Tax efficiency of momentum strategies
The impact of passive investing on momentum strategiesOptimal factor combinations for diversified portfolios
The Monumental Miscalculation | Jared Dillian on Tariffs, Fed Risks, and Where Markets Go from Here
Join hosts Matt Ziegler and Jack Forehand as they interview Jared Dillian (@DailyDirtNap on Twitter) for a fascinating discussion on current market conditions, macroeconomic trends, and controversial investment perspectives. Jared shares his unique takes on everything from tariffs to portfolio construction, offering insights that often challenge conventional wisdom.
Topics Covered:
Jared's contrarian view that tariffs are deflationary rather than inflationaryThe potential long-term decline of the dollar despite possible short-term strengthHow financial wars have replaced hot and cold wars in global politicsThe future of US debt and potential parallels to past debt crisesJared's "Awesome Portfolio" strategy: 20% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% cash, 20% gold, 20% real estateWhy international stocks may continue to outperform US equitiesPossible recession indicators and economic headwindsFed policy predictions and why rates might not be cut as expectedThe value of sentiment indicators and Twitter as a market research toolWhy free trade benefits economies and the risks of protectionist policies
The One Lesson: 50 Great Investors Share the One Thing They Would Teach You
When we started Excess Returns, we wanted to come up with one way to boil down the best advice from the experts we have interviewed into one simple question. That led us to create a standard closing question that we ask all of our guests, “Based on your experience in the markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would that be?”.
Over the history of the podcast, we have asked that question to close to 200 guests ranging from great investors to academic experts to options and macro traders. In this episode, we share the answers from our 50 most popular guests all in one episode. Featured guests include Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Guy Spier, Michael Mauboussin, Mike Green, Cem Karsan, Chris Davis, Aswath Damodaran, Jack Schwager, Rick Ferri and many others.
Topics Covered:The fundamental purpose of investing: preserving and growing wealth rather than getting rich quick
The importance of base rates in investment decisions
Portfolio monitoring frequency and its impact on investment psychology
Viewing stocks as ownership in actual businesses rather than trading vehicles
The value of patience, humility, and self-forgiveness in the investment process
Diversification across asset classes, strategies, and time frames
The benefits of simplicity in investment approaches
The psychological challenges of investing and how to overcome them
Compounding as a fundamental wealth-building tool
The danger of performance chasing and overconfidence
The value of a rules-based investment process
Behind the Scenes of the Madoff Scandal with a Trader on the Inside | Andrew Cohen
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, who shares his extraordinary journey from Goldman Sachs trader to working directly with Bernie Madoff and ultimately becoming a victim of history's largest Ponzi scheme. Now a respected finance professor, Cohen offers unique insights into Wall Street's trading culture, the shock of Madoff's fraud, and how he rebuilt his life in academia after losing almost everything.
Topics Covered:
Andrew's early career at Goldman Sachs and how basketball gambling on the trading floor taught him market-making skills
The trading operations and technology at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in the early 1990s
Working dynamics with Bernie Madoff's sons, Mark and Andy, and office politics
How Andrew was invited to invest in Madoff's "exclusive" fund
Andrew's decision to leave Wall Street at the height of his success
The devastating moment Andrew learned about Madoff's arrest and the Ponzi scheme
The additional ordeal of facing clawback lawsuits after losing his investment
Transitioning to academia and finding a more fulfilling career path
Lessons for investors and finance students about risk, technology, and communication
The Colossal Mistake | Richard Bernstein on the Risks of Tariffs and Passive Investing
Join hosts Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau as they sit down with Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his expert perspective on today's market challenges, including the unprecedented narrowness of recent markets, the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and why the current environment calls for a shift toward value investing and greater diversification. Drawing on decades of experience, Bernstein offers practical wisdom for navigating today's uncertain investment landscape.
Topics Covered:
The difference between the 2008 financial crisis and today's economic challengesWhy 2023-2024 saw the most narrow stock market since the Great DepressionThe potential impact of tariffs as "the biggest tax on consumers in our professional careers"Why investors should err on the side of value over growth in the current marketHow US debt levels impact interest rates and economic competitivenessThe role of the Federal Reserve as a lagging rather than leading indicatorWhy gold serves as an effective hedge against uncertaintyBernstein's skeptical view on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin valuationThe limitations of index funds in today's market environmentTimeless advice for wealth building: stick to fundamentals and avoid "get rich quick" thinking
The Secular Bull Market Isn't Dead: Jim Paulsen on Why Tariffs Won't Break It
In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent market environment. Jim brings his decades of experience to provide context, rational analysis, and long-term perspectives, steering clear of bold predictions and focusing instead on practical advice for navigating these uncertain times.
Main Topics Covered:
Jim’s perspective on market corrections and advice for investors during volatile periods, emphasizing emotional discipline and long-term thinking.The economic implications of tariffs, debunking the notion that they’re inflationary and exploring their contractionary effects.Critique of Federal Reserve policy, including their unprecedented actions and failure to ease despite market signals of deflation risk.Analysis of the U.S. dollar’s value and its impact on trade competitiveness, proposing a weaker dollar as an alternative to tariffs.The resilience of the private sector, bolstered by strong balance sheets and liquidity, as a buffer against recession fears.Thoughts on government debt, executive overreach, and Trump administration policies like deregulation and immigration.Investment strategies for the current environment.
100 Baggers Leave Fingerprints | Chris Mayer Wrote the Book and Tells You How to Find Them
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by special co-host Bogumil Baranowski to sit down with Chris Mayer. As the author of the acclaimed book 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them, former editor of influential newsletters, and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, Chris brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective to the table. In this conversation, we dive deep into the world of long-term investing, exploring timeless principles, the impact of AI on future opportunities, and the mindset required to identify and hold onto extraordinary businesses. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode is packed with wisdom to help you navigate the markets with patience and purpose.
Main Topics Covered:
The potential for 100-bagger stocks in emerging industries like AI and how time reveals the winners.
The "twin engines" of growth and multiples, and why great businesses often trade at high valuations.
The merits and challenges of concentrated investing in a market dominated by giants like the "Mag Seven."
Strategies for dealing with drawdowns and maintaining conviction in great companies through volatility.
The importance of aligning investment strategies with the right type of capital, especially for family wealth.
How experiences as a banker, newsletter editor, and board member shape a business-owner mindset.
The role of boards in capital allocation and setting incentives that drive long-term value.
Insights from general semantics as a tool for critical thinking and avoiding investment pitfalls.
The power of journaling to track evolving thoughts and foster humility in investing.
Why patience is the ultimate lesson for investors and how to tune out market noise.
The Fastest Market Selloff Since 2020: Rick Ferri on Tactics to Survive and Thrive
In this episode, we are joined by Rick Ferri, a renowned advocate for low-cost, evidence-based investing. With the market in the midst of a significant selloff, it was a great time to get Rick’s practical wisdom on navigating market volatility, maintaining simplicity in investing, and making informed portfolio decisions amidst economic uncertainty. With his disciplined approach and decades of experience, Rick shares actionable advice for investors looking to stay the course through today’s challenges. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this discussion offers valuable perspectives to help you achieve long-term financial success.
Main Topics Covered:
Strategies for handling market uncertainty and avoiding rash decisions during volatile times.
The benefits of simplicity in investing and why the industry pushes complexity.
Debunking the myth of the "dead" 60/40 portfolio and tailoring asset allocation to individual needs.
Practical tips for sticking to your asset allocation through market ups and downs.
How inflation impacts portfolios and why personal inflation rates matter.
The case for international diversification and its long-term benefits.
Thoughts on economic policies like tariffs and their potential effects on markets.
Direct indexing: who it’s for, who it’s not for, and how it’s often oversold.
Why active management struggles to outperform, despite persistent marketing efforts.
Evaluating alternative investments like private credit and their risks.
Addressing the "age in bonds" rule of thumb and its relevance for different investors.
Questions to ask financial advisors to ensure you’re getting value for your fees.
Rick’s evolution as an investor and the four stages to simplicity.
An overview of the Core Four portfolio and its alignment with economic realities.
Approaches to rebalancing and when to let asset allocations glide.
Rick’s unique view on separating advisor fees for advice and asset management.
Heading to Recession Island | Will the Trump and Powell Puts Help Us Reverse Course? | Andy Constan
In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy’s trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today’s volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don’t miss Andy’s unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing!
Main Topics Covered:
Andy’s “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.”
The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant’s goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks.
The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today’s market, and why they’re farther out of the money than many expect.
The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative.
The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations.
Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization’s inflationary pressures.
The Federal Reserve’s current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they’re a poor choice for long-term investors.
Andy’s contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.
The Soft Landing is a Myth: Here's What's Really Going on in the Economy | Cullen Roche
Join us for an insightful conversation with Cullen Roche, a renowned financial expert from Discipline Funds, as he breaks down some of the most pressing economic and market topics impacting investors today. Hosted by Justin and Jack, this episode of Excess Returns dives into a "fact and fiction" style discussion, where Cullen unpacks complex issues like Federal Reserve policies, tariffs, and the national debt with clarity and nuance. With his knack for simplifying the mechanics of markets and the economy, Cullen offers a fresh perspective on what’s really happening—and what it means for your financial future. Check out more about Cullen’s work at disciplinefunds.com.
Main Topics Covered:
- The Fed and Soft Landing: Cullen evaluates whether the Federal Reserve has successfully managed inflation and engineered a soft landing, reframing the analogy as stabilizing an economy in flight rather than landing it.
- Tariffs and Inflation: A deep dive into Trump’s tariff policies, exploring their impact as a corporate tax, their potential to drive inflation, and whether they can bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
- National Debt Concerns: Cullen shares his take on the U.S. national debt, downplaying immediate risks while acknowledging the long-term inflationary dangers of unchecked government spending creep.
- DOGE and Deficit Reduction: Thoughts on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), its potential to cut waste, and the challenges of moving the needle given the dominance of entitlements and defense spending.
- AI’s Economic Impact: How artificial intelligence might boost productivity, its limits in transforming retail demand, and whether it offsets tariff-related economic pressures.
- Bond vs. Stock Market Smarts: Cullen debunks the myth that the bond market is inherently smarter than the stock market, emphasizing both are efficient in their own right.
- Mortgage Rates and Housing: A look at whether we’ll see ultra-low mortgage rates (like 3%) again, driven by secular trends in technology and population growth.
- Crypto Reserve Fund: Cullen critiques the idea of a U.S. crypto reserve, arguing it diverts resources from productive economic investments.
- Leg Day Economics: A lighthearted yet serious take on why leg day matters—not just for fitness, but for longevity and stability.
Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Finding Value in a Volatile Market | Lindsey Bell and Shannon Saccocia
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.
Key topics discussed:
• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth
• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures
• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic
• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation
• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary
• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China
Money Delusions: Barry Ritholtz on the Elusive Definition of Money and How Not to Invest It
Buy Barry's Book
https://amzn.to/3F7APZP
In this initial episode of Rabbithole of our new show Rabbithole, Dave Nadig explores the psychology of money and investing with Barry Ritholtz, author of "How Not to Invest."
Their conversation challenges conventional financial wisdom and reveals insights about what money is, and how we use and invest it.
Key topics include:
Why money is a tool for freedom and agency, not a store of value or end goal
How childhood experiences shape our lifelong money behaviors and attitudes
Why market crashes affect us differently at various life stages
The dangers of algorithmic social media and information overload for investors
Why avoiding mistakes is more important than chasing extraordinary returns
Rethinking Bitcoin and other investments through better framing
The wisdom of humility in financial decision-making
Barry shares candid personal stories and draws on decades of experience as a trader, strategist, and wealth manager to identify the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that typically destroy wealth.
The Market Illusion: Mike Green on Inflation, Geopolitics and the Hidden Recession
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Matt welcome back investment strategist Mike Green for an in-depth conversation about the current state of markets, economic trends, and geopolitical developments.Mike shares his unique perspective on several key topics:Why traditional economic indicators like unemployment claims no longer accurately reflect economic reality due to the rise of the gig economy
How the Fed's interest rate hikes have counterintuitively benefited wealthy individuals through increased interest income
The strategic reasoning behind Trump administration policies, particularly regarding China, Russia, and global tradeAn analysis of market dynamics, including the mechanical nature of passive investing and its impact on price movements
Insights on inflation measurement challenges and the role of seasonal adjustments in recent dataThe conversation also explores how current political and economic conditions mirror historical patterns, with Mike drawing thought-provoking parallels to past societal transformations. He explains why the S&P 500's strong performance masks weakness in other market segments and offers his perspective on what investors should consider in today's environment.
Whether you're interested in markets, economics, or the intersection of politics and investing, this episode provides valuable insights from one of today's most original financial thinkers.
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Nine Timeless Lessons from 2024 | Larry Swedroe
In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can't be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes.
Larry dives deep into the concept of "self-healing mechanisms" in markets, explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future returns. He uses fascinating examples from reinsurance to value stocks to illustrate this principle.
The discussion also covers why "Sell in May and Go Away" is a dangerous myth, why active management continues to disappoint, and why proper diversification means always having some parts of your portfolio that aren't performing well.
Larry also explains why investors keep making the same mistakes and how they can break free from common behavioral biases.
The conversation includes practical insights on:
Why even a perfect economic crystal ball wouldn't help you predict markets
The dangers of judging investment strategies by their outcomes rather than their process
Why patience and discipline are crucial for investment success
How to think about diversification in a world dominated by large tech stocks
Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode offers valuable perspectives on building resilient portfolios and avoiding common investment pitfalls.
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A $33 Billion Value Manager Who Has Actually Outperformed | Scott McBride
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack sit down with Scott McBride, CEO and portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley, to explore the approach that has allowed them to succeed during a time when many other value investors have failed. McBride, with 24 years at the firm, shares insights into how their team has achieved impressive results by being willing to think differently from consensus.
Key topics discussed:
How market sentiment and emotion create opportunities for long-term investors
The importance of having the right team culture and being comfortable with contrarian positions
Their approach to valuing companies beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratiosWhy catalysts aren't necessary for investment success if you get valuation and governance right
Their perspective on international markets, particularly opportunities in Europe and the UK
Thoughts on AI's impact on businesses and investment analysis
The growing influence of passive investing and how it creates opportunities
McBride explains why having fewer analysts covering certain stocks can create opportunities, and why focusing on business quality, strong balance sheets, and good governance is crucial for long-term success. He also shares valuable insights about maintaining flexibility in investment approach rather than being dogmatic about any single strategy.
Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this conversation offers practical wisdom about what works in value investing over the long term.
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Show Us Your Portfolio: Mike Taylor | Inside the Investment Strategy of a Hedge Fund Veteran
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Taylor, portfolio manager of Simplify's PINK healthcare ETF, for a fascinating discussion about how he mansges his personal portfolio. Drawing from his extensive experience at firms like Citadel and Millennium, Mike shares candid insights about what makes a successful investor and his portfolio construction process. Key topics include: Why having "skin in the game" matters when managing funds The critical elements he looks for in high-conviction investments His unique approach to international investing and macro trends Valuable lessons learned from working at top hedge funds His perspective on retirement and career longevity in finance Thoughts on demographic challenges facing global markets Mike brings both humor and deep expertise to this conversation, offering rare insights into how a veteran hedge fund manager thinks about markets, risk, and portfolio construction. Whether you're a professional investor or individual managing your own portfolio, this episode provides valuable perspectives on navigating today's complex market environment.
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Tariffs, Bear Markets and the Hidden Knowledge Worker Recession | Dave Nadig and Jason Buck
Welcome to Click Beta - where three market professionals cut through the financial clickbait to have real conversations about what matters. In this premiere episode, hosts Matt Zigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig dive into pressing topics like trade wars, tariffs, and their real-world impacts on small businesses and manufacturing. The conversation flows from corporate-subsidized jobs to cryptocurrency grifts, and wraps up with a fascinating discussion about the future of local economies and digital communities. Unlike typical financial content, Click Beta brings you unscripted, unfiltered perspectives from three different corners of the financial world - financial planning, fund management, and product strategy. Join us monthly as we analyze headlines, share insights, and figure out what really matters for investors and professionals alike.
Timeless Lessons from History's Best Traders | Jack Schwager
Market Wizards author Jack Schwager returns for another fascinating conversation about trading psychology, risk management, and lessons learned from interviewing the world's top traders. In this wide-ranging discussion, Schwager shares stories from his early career as a market analyst in the 1970s, his transition to writing the influential Market Wizards series, and his personal journey understanding that his talents lay in analyzing and writing about trading rather than trading itself. Key highlights include: The origin story of how Schwager landed his first job and serendipitously replaced Michael Marcus Critical insights about the unchanging nature of human psychology in markets despite technological evolution Why risk management principles remain constant even as trading strategies evolve Fascinating stories about legendary traders like George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Ed Thorp The important distinction between volatility and true risk in markets A preview of Schwager's upcoming book project with co-author George Coyle Whether you're a veteran trader or new to markets, this conversation offers timeless wisdom about successful trading, the entrepreneurial mindset required to succeed, and the importance of understanding your own strengths and limitations. Watch for Jack's memorable explanation of Bruce Kovner's famous advice: "Know where you're getting out before you get in."
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Practical Lessons from Cliff Asness
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss their fascinating interview with AQR founder Cliff Asness. They explore several key topics from their conversation, including: Cliff's humorous take on morning routines and why correlation doesn't equal causation when it comes to success habits The "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and why Cliff believes markets may be becoming less efficient over time, particularly evident in the dot-com bubble and 2019-2020 market events A thoughtful discussion on passive investing's impact on markets, including Cliff's perspective on what percentage of passive investing might be sustainable The importance of getting comfortable with investment discomfort, especially when following factor strategies that can experience long periods of underperformance An insightful discussion about the evolution of factor investing and whether factors need intuitive explanations to be valid Cliff's key advice for average investors: look at your portfolio as little as possible to avoid making emotional decisions The episode showcases Cliff's unique ability to combine deep quantitative insights with humor and practical wisdom, making complex investment concepts accessible and entertaining. Don't miss this conversation with one of the most influential figures in quantitative investing.
Busting 50 Years of Investing Myths | Rob Arnott
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Perth Tolle sit down with Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of fundamental indexing. Rob discusses his thought-provoking article "50 Years of Innovation, Myth Making and Myth Busting," written for the 50th anniversary of the Journal of Portfolio Management. The conversation covers several critical investing myths and insights, including: The evolution of fundamental indexing and why "smart beta" has lost its meaning Why historical returns can be deceptive when estimating future equity risk premiums The surprising truth about long-term forecasting in markets The impact of index funds on market efficiency and stock prices Why buybacks aren't necessarily equivalent to dividends The challenges facing U.S. growth stocks at current valuations Rob brings over four decades of investment experience to this discussion, offering candid perspectives on market valuation, index fund dynamics, and the future of passive investing. His insights are particularly valuable for investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment.
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Building Intelligent Alpha Portfolios with ChatGPT | Doug Clinton
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Doug Clinton of Intelligent Alpha to explore the fascinating intersection of AI and investment strategy. We discussed how Doug is using large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini to build portfolios that aim to beat the market over time. Doug shares insights from his experience launching managing AI-powered investment strategies. We dive deep into how these models actually work behind the scenes, exploring everything from portfolio construction and stock selection to position sizing and rebalancing. Doug explains how LLMs can combine quantitative and qualitative analysis in ways that traditional quant models can't, while maintaining the advantage of being free from emotional biases that often plague human investors. We also explore broader implications for the future of investment management, discussing whether AI might eventually replace human analysts and portfolio managers, or if the future lies in human-AI collaboration. The conversation wraps up with Doug's thoughts on the rapid evolution of AI technology beyond investing, including his predictions for personal AI assistants and the potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Whether you're an investment professional curious about AI's role in the industry or simply interested in understanding how technology is reshaping asset management, this episode offers valuable insights into what the future might hold.
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Beyond the Magnificent Seven: Liz Ann Sonders on Markets, Cycles & Investing
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for a wide-ranging discussion about markets, the economy, and investing. We explore her unique perspective on the current market environment, including her views on the end of the "Great Moderation" era and the transition to what she calls the "Temperamental Era" - a period likely to bring more volatility in both inflation and economic growth. Liz Ann shares invaluable insights about the importance of looking beyond headline index numbers to understand what's really happening in markets, the difference between behavioral and attitudinal sentiment indicators, and why changes in economic trends often matter more than absolute levels. We also discuss the evolution of market structure, including the impact of passive investing, and she shares some of the most important lessons she learned from working with legendary investor Marty Zweig. Drawing on her decades of experience, Liz Ann explains why investors should focus less on trying to predict the future and more on making sound decisions along the way. Whether you're interested in understanding current market dynamics or looking for timeless investing wisdom, this conversation offers something for investors at every level. Join us for this insightful discussion where we break down complex market topics into understandable concepts that can help inform your investment decisions.
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The One Factor That Explains the Struggles of Value, International and Small-Cap Stocks | Kai Wu
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kai Wu, founder of Sparkline Capital, for a fascinating discussion about intangible value investing and its global applications. Kai shares his expertise on using machine learning and natural language processing to identify companies rich in intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects.
We explore why U.S. firms have historically outperformed many international counterparts, with Kai explaining how the gap in intangible asset investment has been a crucial factor. We discuss: How traditional value metrics miss important aspects of modern company value The four pillars of intangible value: IP, brand equity, human capital, and network effects Why international markets have lagged the U.S. and how intangible value can help close this gap The role of AI and machine learning in modern investment analysis A surprising analysis of global patent leadership This episode offers valuable insights for investors interested in both value investing and international diversification. Whether you're a quantitative investor or just interested in understanding how modern companies create value, you'll find plenty to think about in this discussion.
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Do You Really Need International Diversification? 10 Top Investors Debate
In this episode, we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios.
Key topics include:
What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected markets
Why U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continue
The role of currency exposure in international investing
How passive investing flows affect international markets
Different perspectives on optimal international allocation strategies
Featuring insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification.
Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions.
Redefining Value Investing in a Magnificent Seven Dominated World | Jacob Pozharny
In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Jacob Pozharny, partner at Bridgeway Capital Management, to explore the increasingly important role of intangible assets in modern investing. Jacob breaks down what intangible assets are - from intellectual property and proprietary algorithms to brand value and customer relationships - and explains how these harder-to-measure assets are changing traditional investment approaches. He discusses Bridgeway's pioneering research on "intangible intensity" and how it affects their investment strategy, particularly for high vs. low intangible companies.
Key topics covered: How intangible assets complicate traditional valuation metrics Why sentiment analysis matters more for high-intangible companies The implications of AI for intangible asset valuation Bridgeway's approach to long-short investing International investing opportunities and market efficiency The importance of understanding model assumptions and staying humble as an investor Whether you're interested in quantitative investing, understanding modern valuation frameworks, or keeping up with evolving market dynamics, this conversation offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's leading firms approaches these challenges.
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Inside the Secretive World of Pod Shops | Bob Elliott
In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Matt sit down with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds, to explore the fascinating world of multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops." Bob breaks down how these complex investment vehicles work, discussing their unique structure where multiple portfolio managers operate independently while sharing infrastructure and risk management resources. The conversation covers crucial topics including: How pod shops attract and compensate top trading talent The economics and fee structures of modern hedge funds Risk management challenges when running multiple strategies The evolution from traditional hedge funds to pod shop models The impact of growing assets under management on performance The emergence of ETFs as alternatives to hedge fund strategies Drawing from his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry, Bob provides unique insights into why pod shops have captured headlines despite representing only a fraction of the overall hedge fund industry. He also discusses his current work at Unlimited Funds, where he's working to make hedge fund strategies more accessible through ETF structures.
Dispelling Big Investing Myths | Dan Rasmussen
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Dan Rasmussen from Verdad Advisers to discuss his firm's top research pieces from the past year. They explore several fascinating market insights, including: Why high bond yields don't necessarily translate to high returns The dramatic outperformance of U.S. markets post-financial crisis and the potential opportunity in cheaper international stocks How private equity return dispersion may be more about portfolio construction than manager skill The promising changes happening in Japanese corporate governance Britain's market valuation in the wake of Brexit Dan also announces his upcoming book "The Humble Investor" which challenges common assumptions about predictability in markets. Throughout the conversation, he offers thought-provoking perspectives on market efficiency, the limitations of forecasting, and why humility is crucial for investment success. Whether you're an institutional investor or individual market participant, this discussion provides valuable insights into contrarian investment opportunities and challenges prevailing market narratives with data-driven analysis.
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Why Most Investors Won't Buy the Best Diversifier | Andrew Beer on Managed Futures
In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Jack sit down with Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments to explore the fascinating world of managed futures and alternative investment strategies. Andrew, who manages over a billion dollars in assets, shares valuable insights on why managed futures remain underutilized despite their proven benefits for portfolio diversification. The conversation dives deep into several key topics: How to effectively communicate complex investment strategies to clients Why the narrative around managed futures is just as important as their performance The challenges of getting investors to adopt alternative strategies despite their clear statistical benefits How Dynamic Beta replicates hedge fund strategies in a cost-effective ETF wrapper The importance of simplicity in investment strategies and why complexity isn't always better Andrew also discusses the evolution of the ETF landscape, the role of artificial intelligence in investment management, and why maintaining a steady, unchanging strategy has been crucial to his firm's success. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this discussion offers valuable perspectives on portfolio diversification and the future of alternative investments.
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What the Rise of Passive Investing Means for Your Portfolio | Special Guest: Dave Nadig
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness. Key discussions: Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's rise How index fund flows might affect market dynamics The difference between stocks in and out of major indices Whether passive investing could potentially destabilize markets What this means for individual investors Whether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio. Featured Guests' Clips: Aswath Damodaran on active management's track record Mike Green on passive investing mechanics Rick Ferri with the counterargument Rob Arnott on index inclusion effects Cem Karsan on why active may rise again Cliff Asness offering a balanced perspective
The Most Misunderstood Bull Market Ever | Jim Paulsen
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook. Paulsen, author of Paulson Perspectives on Substack, shares unique insights on why traditional recession indicators have failed, how Main Street sentiment impacts markets, and why he remains optimistic despite widespread pessimism. Key topics include: Why the Fed's recent approach differs from historical patterns The changing nature of market valuations The impact of technology on profit productivity Why consumer confidence remains surprisingly low The future of long-term bond yields Drawing from over 40 years of market experience, Paulsen offers a data-driven yet practical perspective on where markets may be heading and why many conventional indicators may need updating for today's economy.
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Bigger Extremes, Better Returns | Cliff Asness on the "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis"
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with AQR founder Cliff Asness for a fascinating discussion about market efficiency, behavioral finance, and the future of quantitative investing. In this wide-ranging conversation, we explore Cliff's recent paper "The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and discuss why markets might actually be becoming less efficient over time, despite advances in technology – a counterintuitive but compelling argument. We dig into how social media and constant connectivity might be making markets more prone to extremes, the real impact of passive investing, and why periods of market irrationality might last longer than ever before. Cliff shares his perspective on the current market concentration in the Magnificent Seven stocks and offers insights on high-volatility alternatives from his latest paper. The conversation also covers the role of intuition in factor investing, inflation's impact on markets, and ends with Cliff's essential advice for the average investor. Throughout the discussion, Cliff brings his characteristic mix of academic rigor and practical wisdom, peppered with his unique brand of humor. Whether you're a quant enthusiast, professional investor, or just interested in understanding today's markets better, this conversation offers valuable insights from one of the industry's most influential voices.
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Making Sense of Markets in a Post Election World | Grant Williams and Ben Hunt
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a "political utility" where "number go up" has become the prevailing faith. Key topics include: Analysis of shifting market dynamics and investment philosophies The challenges of maintaining long-term perspective in a speculation-driven environment How inflation and institutional trust impact market behavior The distinction between investment and speculation in modern markets Practical considerations for navigating uncertain economic conditions This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors trying to understand the intersection of politics, markets, and human behavior in today's complex financial landscape.
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Making Money from Market Chaos | Inside the Volatility World with Kris Sidial
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Brent Kochuba dive deep into the world of long volatility and tail risk strategies with Kris Sidial, founder of the Ambrus Group. Kris shares invaluable insights from his experience managing volatility-focused strategies and navigating major market events. 🔑 Key Topics Covered: How long volatility strategies work and their role in investment portfolios Behind-the-scenes look at managing vol strategies during market crashes The August 2023 volatility event and what really happened Evolution of the derivatives market and its impact on trading The truth about market liquidity and short volatility positioning How retail options trading has changed market dynamics Kris provides a fascinating glimpse into how vol traders operate during market stress events, explaining how these strategies aim to deliver explosive returns during market crashes while minimizing losses during normal conditions. He also discusses the psychological challenges of running these strategies and the importance of having both quantitative and discretionary elements in volatility trading. Whether you're an institutional investor, retail trader, or just interested in understanding market dynamics better, this episode offers valuable perspectives on an often misunderstood corner of the investment world.
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A Deep Dive into Micro-Cap Investing | Ian Cassel
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCap Club and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. We explore the fascinating world of microcap investing, where Ian shares his expertise in finding and investing in ultra-small public companies. We dive deep into Ian's investment philosophy, discussing how he identifies promising microcap companies, the importance of finding exceptional management teams, and his approach to portfolio management. We cover: - What defines a microcap stock and the size of the microcap universe - The concept of "intelligent fanatics" and its importance in small company investing - Why profitability and management quality are crucial filters - How Ian approaches position sizing and portfolio concentration - The importance of setting proper capacity constraints in microcap investing - Why turnover can actually be beneficial in microcap portfolios - Red flags for individual investors to watch out for Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this conversation offers valuable insights into an often overlooked corner of the market where significant opportunities can still be found.
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The Practical Implications of the Rise of Passive Investing | Mike Green
In this episode, we are joined by Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green. We build on our previous episodes with Mike where we discussed his research on the impact of passive investing on the market and focus on its practical implications and how it impacts how investors construct their portfolios. We discuss the types of equity strategies that would benefit the most from the rise of passive, whether a factor could be constructed based on Mike's research, different strategies that might hedge a potential market decline triggered by passive and a lot more.
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An Evidence-Based Look at the Struggles of Value Investing | Larry Swedroe
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to tackle some of the most pressing issues in investing today. We dive deep into topics that are on many investors' minds, including: Is value investing still effective in today's market? How is the rise of passive investing impacting market efficiency? Should we be concerned about market concentration? Is international diversification still important? What role will artificial intelligence play in investing? Larry brings his decades of experience and research to bear, challenging common assumptions and offering nuanced perspectives that often go against conventional wisdom. We explore the importance of maintaining a long-term view, the dangers of recency bias, and why Larry believes hyper-diversification across multiple asset classes may be beneficial for investors. We also discuss factor investing, the increasing role of alternatives, and how individual investors can approach portfolio construction in our evolving market landscape.
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15 Ways to Lose Money in Markets | Ben Carlson
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ben Carlson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the popular investing blog "A Wealth of Common Sense." We discussed his insightful article "15 Ways to Lose Money in the Markets," which outlines major mistakes investors make and how to avoid them. We explore a variety of topics, including: - The dangers of market timing and why it's so difficult to get right - Why investors shouldn't blindly follow advice from billionaires or pundits - The importance of not overreacting to short-term market volatility - How to approach active vs. passive investing strategies - The pitfalls of trying to get rich overnight and the value of long-term investing - Why it's crucial to avoid selling during bear markets - The risks of being overly pessimistic about markets and the economy Ben provided valuable insights on each of these topics, emphasizing the importance of having a long-term perspective, avoiding big mistakes, and sticking to a well-thought-out investment plan. This conversation offers valuable lessons for investors at all levels, from beginners to seasoned professionals.
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Investing in a Flows Driven World | Cem Karsan
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors for an in-depth discussion on the current state of markets and the global economy. We explore: - How geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine are impacting markets and risk - Cem's views on inflation, recent Fed actions, and market flows - The impact of options positioning and market structure on volatility - Cem's outlook for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024 - Historical patterns around elections and how they may apply today - Thoughts on the rise of passive investing and potential shifts ahead - Perspectives on AI as both a productivity driver and investment theme Cem shares his unique insights on how the current market backdrop compares to other periods of elevated populism and inflation, and what that could mean for returns and investor behavior going forward.
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What Investors Can Learn from a Year-Long Trading Experiment | Brent Donnelly
In this episode, Matt sits down with Brent Donnelly, author of "50 Trades in 50 Weeks: One Year of Good Ideas, Dumb Mistakes, and Timeless Trading Lessons". Brent spent close to a year conducting a unique experiment where he created and executed one unique trade every week across a wide variety of markets and asset classes. We discuss what he learned from the experience. We also delve into the concept of edge in investing and the challenges of maintaining one in evolving markets, the importance of narrative, the challenges of transitioning from backtesting to live trading, the crucial role of adaptation in markets and a lot more.
What Regular Investors Need to Know About Options Flows | Brent Kochuba
In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices. We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting. We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates. Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market. SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKET https://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess
The Case for a Roaring 2020s | Ed Yardeni
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting.
We covered a wide range of topics, including: Ed's outlook for inflation and the economy Why he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock market His thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expect The characteristics that make a good economic forecaster The potential impact of AI on the economy His views on the upcoming election and its market implications The long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocks Ed's approach to sector allocation and market breadth
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The Harsh Truth About Investing Edge with Adam Butler
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with our good friend Adam Butler, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. We cover a lot of ground, including: The challenge of distinguishing investment edge from noise over typical investing lifetimes The concept of return stacking and how it allows investors to increase portfolio diversification The process of determining sources of return to stack on top of stock and bond portfolios The impact of passive investing flows on market dynamics and fundamentals Perspectives on whether AI will significantly boost economic productivity and GDP growth As always, Adam offers thoughtful and sometimes contrarian views on these complex subjects, drawing on his extensive experience in quantitative investing and portfolio management.
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Value Investing in a Changing World with Aswath Damodaran
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with NYU professor Aswath Damodaran to discuss his new book on the corporate life cycle and get his insights on a wide range of investing topics. We cover: - How companies age and why they struggle to act their age - The importance of storytelling in valuation - Aswath's thoughts on factor investing and its limitations - The rise of passive investing and its impact on markets - Market concentration and the dominance of big tech companies - How Aswath approaches his own investing decisions - The potential impact of AI on investing and valuation - Why Aswath has never attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting Aswath shares his unique perspectives on these topics, blending academic rigor with practical insights. He also offers his advice for the average investor, emphasizing the importance of focusing on preserving and growing wealth rather than chasing outsized returns. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this wide-ranging conversation offers valuable food for thought on navigating today's complex markets.
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