Mega-Brands: Investing in Mega Trends & the Mega Brands Best Positioned to Add Value to Your Wallet

Another add-on on global brands and LOGO

Great overview of the ALpha Brands Consumption Leaders ETF, LOGO from Google NotebookLM

In today's April and YTD update I discuss what we see in equity markets, how top global brands are performing, what we see for inflation, the Fed, rates, and how to navigate this turbulent market.

Brands matter more than ever when rates and inflation stay higher for longer!

We love the luxury goods category and LVMH is a key core brand to own as the category leader. Q1 was solid and stable with core consumers engaging as always and some aspirational consumers pulling back a bit. Fashion & leather goods performed well, select retail-Sephora - was very strong. Sephora is clearly taking share from Ulta and Ulta's stock reflects it.

The stock is cheap relative to the peer group and itself and fits all the important style factors to own in this kind of "higher for longer" environment. We will certainly buy the dips as they come.

I cover Q1 Dynamic Brands performance, lots of stock, sector, style box return info as well as how we see consumer spending playing out the rest of the year and where we are allocated to benefit from this spending. I talk about inflation, interest rates, the quality style factor, and where we see sticky inflation regardless of what the Fed or gov't tell us. Enjoy!

MANU is one of the most recognized and valuable sports brands in the world. This club is worth much more with a new owner, strategy, players, stadium, and a debt refinancing. All of this is possible with the new minority owner, Sir Jim Ratcliff and the stock is down 46% from the recent highs making the entry point much more attractive IMO. Here's what I see. This is NOT advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

Here's our January 2024 market and global brands update. I talk about the market overall, the brands portfolio in specific, and the results of the active trading we did inside the fund for January. Active trading can be a wonderful addition to a core, buy-hold portfolio when executed well. In an algo and 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options focused market, volatility will always be present making it something to focus on for clients. For more information on the brands fund and portfolio holdings: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

With >20,000 stores worldwide, Domino's is the largest Pizza company in the world. The stock has a strong history of beating the S&P 500 over time yet its lagged over the last few years due to a tough 2022. With store growth set to accelerate and operating efficiencies taking hold, we think the stock is a solid mean reversion opportunity in 2024 and beyond.

TJX, Marshalls, Home Goods, and Sierra is a >$100B retail brand that has compounded at a above-market rate for many decades. With over 3500 stores worldwide, this model can keep growing over time. Solid management team that is always looking for new, interesting concepts and strong capital allocation decisions at the core. The stock is well positioned for today's stingy consumer spending environment. For more information on investing in leading brands: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

Eli Lilly has been a monster stock over the last 5 years. It's compounded at 40%+ a year versus the market at roughly 11%. This great biopharma brand spends $6B a year on R&D, organically grows well, grows the dividend 15% a year and has a full pipeline thats diverse. This management team is second to none. The stock is not cheap anymore and it's a bit crowded but long-term we see great things for this brand. Mounjaro and Tirzepatide get alll the attention given their blockbuster potential but this company does $33B in annual revenue and very little is coming from the obesity and chronic over-weightedness theme thus far. In this quick video, I update people on what we see and why we still like the name long term.

For more information on investing in dominant, innovative growth brands:

https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

Mr Softy has been a monster stock for over 40 years. The business is incredibly stable and predictable and management continues to keep innovating and growing. We see nothing that changes that on the horizon. The Mega Brand core equity position is still intact. Cloud and AI is driving the growth now and we are still early days in that opportunity. The small dividend grows each year and the stock has performed well in most economic environments. When it gets clocked, as every company does on occasion, you get a chance to own more.
For more information about investing in Mega Brands:https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

Apple could be the greatest consumer tech staple ever created. Sometimes we feel like we can't live without our phones, laptops, and airpods. Apple embodies everything a Mega Brand should be: high brand love, innovator of products and services we love and can't live without, globally dominant, demographically diverse consumer base, super strong balance sheet and quality management team. Would you expect a business described like this to trade at or below a market multiple? I certainly wouldn't. Apple is a core holding for the brands investment portfolio and we love the opportunity to buy more when it dips. iPhone sales and top line revenues have flatlined generally after a massive pull-forward from the pandemic but we expect sales to re-accelerate going forward as iphone 15 really kicks into high gear for consumers. In the meantime, they pay a small dividend that grows every year and they buyback a large part of the float every single year. There's always risk to any business but we see nothing systemic too stop Apples dominance, particularly as India ramps up. For more information about investing in the most dominant brands: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

The global luxury goods market is expected to be about $320B over the next 5 years. Strong demographic tailwinds exist as younger, aspirational luxury goods consumers spend more on the category than older baby boomers. Between the largest wealth transfer in history ($45Trillion moving over the next 2 decades) and the high brand love LVMH, Hermes, L'Oreal,, and Ferrari have with consumers, we see big things ahead even as the economy cools off a bit short-term. Luxury spending tends to be less cyclical and more stable in slowdowns than most other categories. Here's a quick review of LVMH, Hermes, and L'Oreal's dominance in their categories. For more information on investing in leading global brands: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

Athleisure is a lifestyle trend for global consumers. Nike & Lulu are dominating this trend along with a few other mega brands and emerging brands like Vuori. When you appeal to kids through older adults, men and women and on a global basis, you have strong growth prospects. These all drive great stock performance over time. Nike is a more mature growth brand, Lulu has experienced much better growth off a lower base. Both have strong tailwinds going forward from a demographic perspective. Here's my take on both brands, the thematic and the charts.

For more information on investing in global brands:

https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

A solid, well-balanced portfolio holds great growth brands and steady-eddy, singles and doubles brands that have a history of beating the S&P 500. In this episode, I talk about the stable, predictable allocations in Visa and Costco. Dividend growers, FCF generators with stable, revenue and EPS growth offer a lot of value for investors, particularly as the economy gets less certain. For more information on investing in the most relevant, dominant global brands: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

More assets are migrating from public bond and equity markets to private markets each year. Why? The volatility profile and return profiles have been better and the private markets can act as a solid diversifier to public markets. Institutions have known this for decades, they have 25-50% of total assets in private markets across Private Equity, Infrastructure, Real Estate, Energy Transition, Private Credit, Growth Equity, etc. HNW retail investors are in inning one of this transition. The best part: the mega brands get the lions share of the asset flows which makes them great investments. These are some of the smartest, most savvy investors around the world and they have $trillions of dollars of dry powder to put to work over time and at attractive prices. This drives better earnings for the asset managers, which drives the stocks over time. Here's the rub: very few investors have private market exposure and even fewer own these stocks. Blackstone recently was added to the S&P 500, I feel confident KKR and Apollo will be added in due time. Currently, about 12% of the brands portfolio is BX, APO, KKR, we love these companies and we love them as investments that also pay a dividend and grow it over time. For more info on the brands strategy: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

When a company is a verb, it's become part of the social consciousness. When that happens, Mega Brand Status is a sure thing. That tends to be a great thing for a stock. Uber finally got its act together, thanks to Dara, the CEO. He inherited a horrendously run business but a great consumer service. It's only a matter of time before UBER is added to the S&P 500, that is a great catalyst for more upside in my opinion. In the video, I do a quick rundown of today's earnings report. To learn more about investing in top global brands and important consumer trends: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

Mercado Libre is the Amazon of Latin America. They provide an e-commerce marketplace along with the ancillary products and services to keep consumers engaged and merchants selling products. Those include payments, loans, e-comm, logistics. The have a loyalty program membership similar to Prime which consistently adds new products and services to keep customers loyal and using the services more frequently. The stock has been a monster outperformer since the 2007 IPO and they are just getting started. Please remember, this is an emerging market company operating in various countries with high quarterly economic variability and lots of foreign currency volatility. This is NOT advice,, please do your own research to decide what investments are right for you. For more information about investing in global brands: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

Draftkings has become the #1 market share brand in the sports betting and iGaming industry. We love the company, the app, and the stock has been a monster over the last year. The company has made the inflection from unprofitable to profitable and is growing fast. That drives significant revenue, FCF, and margin expansion. In a world where growth is hard to come by, Draftkings stands out over lots of other companies. The sportsbetting TAM by 2030 is estimated to be about $167B from roughly $81B today. If Draftkings gets its fair share, there's a significant revenue ramp from here. The stock can be volatile so use the VOL to your advantage.

Important: this is NOT advice, please do your own research to determine what investments are right for your personal circumstances.

Live Nation and the experience economy is a key theme and holding in the Brands equity strategy. In today's video, I review the live entertainment trends and the record quarter reported by this 800lb gorilla of a Mega Brand.

This is NOT advice, please do your own research and identify investments that make sense for your personal situation.

For more information on the Dynamic Brands equity strategy:

https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio

Today, I review Amazons earnings, supply some fun facts and remind investors, core retail is worthy of paying attention to. Sum of the parts warrants 50% upside and retail, Ads, AWS inflecting positively offer bigger punch than any other Mega Cap Brand.

I talk about Spotifys earnings report and their cross-over into sustainable profitability. They are well on their way to having 1 billion global subscribers and profitability has a catch-up coming. The stock is +100%+ already YTD but plenty of room to re-rate ahead with the new profits and growth focus.

Weekly NFL sports betting episode: Niners & Eagles discussed.

We are investors of Mega Brands and emerging Mega Brands. Names like Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Nike, Lululemon, Visa, Costco come top mind.

The thesis is: Brands Matter. In investing, in life, and in sports betting.

Why mess around with "wanna-be brands" or teams, just focus on the dynasties and emerging dynasties of the NFL.

This week we talk Niners and Eagles, the two only unbeaten teams at 5-0.

Enjoy.

This is not advice, this is for fun.

A quick update on why it's important to own sufficient consumer discretionary and tech exposure and why mega brands are such great investments. I also provide an update on the portfolio and performance along with a quick inflation, rates, and consumer spending trends.

This is the audio version for the Q2 Brands commentary and portfolio positioning. This is not investment advice, just one mans opinion on markets, brands, and the consumer! Enjoy!