The SBA loans have been dispersed but there's not enough to go around. Sales is down 100% for most businesses and will likely be down for the rest of the year. Capitalism is being challenged today but will prevail!
On this episode we’ll discuss the continued impacts of the coronavirus, why the fed may have lowered rates, the legacy of jack welch the former CEO of GE and women’s history month.
Women’s history month
Today i would like to thank all of the strong women in my life, business and across the world. For years women have been fighting for equality and have been achieving it day by day.
The smallest victories can result in the biggest wins. Keep on fighting ladies.
Earlier this week, a close friend who was honored by her employer. Stefanie Tomlin is an inspiration to all of those around. Check out this linkedin post and visit the King’s Theatre in Brooklyn when get the chance.
Insert stef’s picture
Linkedin link: Stef tomlin women history month
The legacy of jack welch
On march 1st, an industry titan passed away. Jack Welch was the renowned CEO of General Electric and made conglomerates cool again.
Jack had a classic american story, going from a middle class family to becoming the CEO of a multi billion dollar corporation. As many long-term executives, he mentioned that he almost quit early in his career. It’s amazing that he spent his entire 40-year career at one firm.
Jack is well-known for two things related to his management techniques: the six sigma and firing practices.
Six sigma became an industry standard practice to reduce errors in manufacturing and supply chain. By minimizing risk in business, GE was able to focus intensely on building top line growth.
Jack was ruthless when it came to hiring and firing employees. He strongly believed in being #1 or #2 in business. His technique required him to promote the top 20% and fire the bottom 10% of employees. The firing practice received strong criticism
Over the years i have learned quite a bit from Neutron Jack. Reading his 20 shareholder letters as CEO have had a positive impact on how i manage business processes. It is even more impressive to read how Jack evolved over 20 years and built GE into what it was in the early 2000s.
In 1980, the year before Welch became CEO, GE recorded revenues of roughly $26.8 billion and in 2000, the year before he left, they were nearly $130 billion.
Unfortunately the company had lost its mark over the years during the change of executive leadership. Succession planning is always a challenge especially with so many different lines of businesses. Recently GE brought over Larry Culp who was formerly the CEO of the Danaher Corporation.
The financial markets have been extremely volatile from the rising fears of the coronavirus. The major concerns are we don’t have a cure and virus is spreading virally across the globe.
As an investor, i focused on the opportunities directly related to China which impacts a majority of the world when it comes to supply chain and manufacturing. Shipments are on hold, flights are cancelled and real time news is limited. Major conferences like F8 by Facebook and Google’s Developer’s conference are being canceled to reduce the contagion from the virus.
I have no insights on whether the virus is slowing or speeding up. I do know that in six months we will know the severity of this crisis.
Fed lowering interest rates
Lowering rates may come as a surprise to many. Mentally i was ready for another drop, just not so soon.
We are in a currency war and the dollar is too strong. The U.S. is relatively the most powerful country in the world. Our economy is robust and we have little impact from the virus.
Unfortunately low rates make it difficult for fixed income savers but this is great for value investors. Equity prices go up every time interest rates go down.
The fed may have been planning this for sometime and have been waiting for a catalyst such as the virus to further strengthen the U.S. position. A global economic slowdown is the biggest concerns for global leaders. And the U.S. has the best financial tools to navigate the global economy.
Impacts of the Coronavirus on Global Supply Chain
The Rise of Remote Work.
Bill Gates and Warren Buffett’s annual letters
Private equity trends from 2019
Coronavirus on Supply Chain.
Global supply chain is coming to a halt. The coronavirus has spread rapidly across Asia and Europe. U.S. market indices have dropped +10% and show no sign of stopping in the near term.
This week, Microsoft and Apple have announced they both expect not to meet quarterly guidance because of the disruptions. I haven't seen smaller companies provide the same warnings but you know a majority of global businesses will be impacted.
Major conferences like Mobile World Congress have been canceled to stop the spread of the disease. This a major business disruption.
I don’t think people are prepared if the virus spreads to the U.S. If it is a contagion, many households don’t have enough supply to stay indoors for 1-3 months until a vaccine is found.
The Rise of Remote Work.
On a brighter note, teleconferencing is picking up globally. Businesses won't close down simply because of fear. Companies are being forced to find alternate solutions to keep the lights on.
Zoom, a popular videoconferencing tool, has onboarded more users in Jan-Feb 2020 than all of 2019. Other remote tools are also seeing increased usage, which will mean higher profits in the short term.
Read Bill Gates and Warren Buffett’s annual letters
Buffett’s is a personal favorite of mine
He has decades worth of writing, documenting his investment process
This year he focuses on succession planning and the broken incentives of for board of directors.
Bain private equity 2020 report
The private equity market in 2019: Strong deal activity despite worsening macro conditions
More private equity general partners are already preparing for a downturn
Buyout deals posted another strong year, despite a worsening macroeconomic outlook
A growing share of buyout deals have been highly leveraged with debt
More than 55% of US buyout deals had a multiple above 11x
The average time to use buyout dry powder has fallen to levels well below the stockpile just before the financial crisis
In deal returns, individual lead managers—especially women—matter more than the PE firm
Technology deals, especially software buyouts, have produced stronger returns than the private equity market overall
The rise of Indian CEOs
98% of companies will have multi-cloud systems using IBM
Large enterprises are only 20% into cloud migration
Management tools will accelerate the migration
Pure players like Microsoft and Amazon don’t provide management solutions
Building community platforms for cyber security applications
The cloud market will be a trillion dollar market with IBM as a player
Data analytics is the single biggest driver of cloud computing today
Peak tesla or not
In seven months, tesla has become the most valuable auto company in the u.s.
Production issues in 2018 and 2019 caused extreme pressure for Elon and the company. Ambitious goals for the Model 3 was the primary cause for production challenges.
Major short sellers have lost billions of dollars in the last month. The stock has more than doubled in a short period of time
After a surprise profit in mid-2019, the announcement of the cyber truck, and meeting production demands, resulted in the company to skyrocket
Next up Tesla will enter the Chinese market and invest heavily in its battery technology.
Let’s see what the rest of 2020 has in store for Tesla and its stock!
Roaring bank stocks
JPM is making all time highs after generating billions of dollars in fixed income profits
The financial services industry is ready to enter the golden decade of finance and technology.
Scaling technology will enable banks to deliver higher profits. Blockchain will certainly help clean up internal ledgers and create a better process for universal banks and international payments.
2019 was the recovery period since most bank stocks have underperformed for the past decade. Deregulation and lower taxes has definitely help them out.
I think interset rates will only rise from here and banks make most of their money from interest rate spreads.
Big and boring is beautiful for banks