Die ekonomie minuut
By Waldo Krugell
Die ekonomie minuutMay 01, 2024
Hoe groen is die party waarvoor jy stem?
Die Reserwebank het onlangs gewaarsku dat die Europese koolstofbelasting, of te wel Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism ʼn negatiewe impak kan hê op Suid-Afrika se uitvoer en die ekonomie. Die VSA, Japan, Kanada en die Verenigde Koninkryk oorweeg hulle eie weergawes hiervan. Behlawe om vertoë te rig dat dit onregverdig is, het enige iemand ʼn plan?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
How green is your party of choice?
The Reserve Bank recently warned that the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, could have a negative impact on South Africa's exports and the economy. The US, Japan, Canada and the UK are considering their own versions of this. Besides making representations that this is unfair, does anyone have a plan?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat wys die aanwysers?
As jy vra hoe dit met die ekonomie gaan is dit nie maklik om te sê goed of sleg nie. Uit die buiteland was daar die afgelope week goeie nuus oor Amerikaanse inflasie. Hier in Suid-Afrika lyk dit of dit die eerste kwartaal swaar gegaan het, maar beter in die tweede kwartaal.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
What do the indicators show?
If you ask how the economy is doing it is not easy to say well or badly. There was good news about US inflation this past week. Here in South Africa, it seems that the first quarter was a tough one, but the economy is faring better in the second quarter.
This episode is supported by the Bureau for Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Wat maak jou middelklas?
In die media word daar gereeld gepraat van die middelklas. Die middelklas is onder druk, in die skuld, en moet gaan stem. Maar wie presies is hierdie middelklas?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
What makes you middle class?
In the media, the middle class is often talked about. The middle class is under pressure, in debt and should go and vote. But who exactly is this middle class?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Goue konstante of dilemma?
Ek het vir ʼn oomblik gewonder of ek oor iets anders as die Nasionale Gesondheidsversekering mag praat en besef daar is nie veel te sê oor die ekonomie van siniese politiek nie. Ek kan eerder oor die goudprys praat. ʼn Interessante artikel wat onlangs in die VSA gepubliseer is vra, is daar ʼn goue konstante, of ʼn goue dilemma?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Golden constant, or dilemma?
I wondered for a moment if I may talk about something other than the National Health Insurance and realized there is not much to say about the economics of cynical politics. I can talk about the gold price instead. An interesting article recently published in the US asks, is there a golden constant, or a golden dilemma?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Hoe wil die ANC, DA, EFF, IVP< ActionSA ons werkloosheidsprobleem oplos?
Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister aangekondig dat Suid-Afrika se werkloosheidskoers in die eerste kwartaal gestyg het tot 32,9%. Daar is darem 22 000 nuwe werksgeleenthede geskep, maar die werkloosheidskoers het gestyg omdat baie meer mense wat vroeer gesê het hulle is nie meer ekonomies aktief nie, weer begin werk soek het. Mens wonder soms, kan enige iets die werkloosheidsprobleem oplos? Ek het vir GPT-4 gevra om te kyk wat die verskillende politieke partye in hulle manifeste voorstel.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
How does the ANC, DA, EFF, IFP, ActionSA propose to solve our unemployment problem?
Statistics South Africa announced yesterday that South Africa's unemployment rate rose to 32.9% in the first quarter. At least 22,000 new jobs were created, but the unemployment rate rose because many more people who previously said they were no longer economically active started looking for work again. One sometimes wonders, can anything solve the unemployment problem? I asked GPT-4 to look at what the various political parties propose in their manifestos.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.
Wat die 2-pot beteken vir aandele en verbruiksbesteding
Daar is al heelwat geskryf oor die nuwe twee-potstelsel vir pensioene. Ek dink dit gaan goeie uitkomste hê, maar daar is ʼn paar goed om te noem.
Hierdie ep sode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
What the 2-pot means for shares and consumer spending
Much has been written about the new two-pot system for pensions. I think it will have good outcomes, but there are a few things to mention.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Sentrale banke en rentekoerse
Ons markte en wisselkoers is op die oomblik baie sensitief vir enige nuus uit die VSA wat ʼn aanduiding kan gee van wanneer hulle rentekoerse gaan sny, maar daar is mos nie ʼn wet wat sê dat die Fed eerste moet beweeg nie.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
Central banks and interest rates
Our markets and exchange rate are very sensitive at the moment to any news from the US that may give an indication of when they will cut interest rates, but there is no law that says that the Fed must move first.
This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Amazon is hier
Baie van ons is bekend met die aanlyn kleinhandel en stroomdienste reus Amazon. Hulle het hierdie week tot die Suid-Afrikaanse mark toegetree met amazon.co.za en daar is gemengde reaksie.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Amazon is here
Many of us are familiar with the online retail and streaming services giant Amazon. They entered the South African market this week with amazon.co.za and there is a mixed reaction.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Hoe om ongelykheid te verminder
Latyns-Amerika is ʼn streek waar ongelykheid in die verdeling van inkomste en welvaart net so erg is as hier in Suid-Afrika. Sedert die jaar 2000 het dit egter begin afneem, maar hoe het hulle dit reg gekry?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
How to reduce inequality
Latin America is a region where inequality in the distribution of income and wealth is just as bad as here in South Africa. However, since the year 2000 it started to decline, but how did they get it right?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Huislenings en inflasiemikpunte
Gereelde luisteraars sal weet dat ek dink die Reserwebank se inflasieteiken is redelik belangrik. Die Sunday Times het die afgelope naweek gevra of die teikenband nie dalk verhoog moet word ter wille van huiseienaars nie en die kort antwoord is nee, maar ek wil dit graag langer verduidelik.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
Home loans and inflation targets
Regular listeners will know that I think the Reserve Bank's inflation target is quite important. The Sunday Times asked this past weekend whether the target band should perhaps be increased for the sake of homeowners and the short answer is no, but I would like to explain it in more detail.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.
Die impak van beurtkrag op arbeidsmarkuitkomste
Gister was die 40ste dag in ʼn ry sonder beurtkrag. Daar is ʼn warm debat aan oor hoe Eskom dit regkry, maar ek het nie ʼn klinkklare antwoord nie en dink ook nie beurtkrag is iets van die verlede nie. Ek wil eerder gesels oor nuwe navorsing wat ondersoek instel na die impak van beurtkrag op die arbeidsmark.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
The impact of load shedding on labour market outcomes
Yesterday was the 40th day in a row without load shedding. There is a hot debate about how Eskom is doing this, but I don't have a clear answer and I don't think load shedding is a thing of the past either. Rather, I want to talk about new research that investigates the impact of load shedding on the labour market.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat wys die aanwysers?
Ek het Vrydag genoem dat die Amerikaanse Fed hulle beleidskoers onveranderd gelaat het en Jerome Powell het aangedui dat hy dink hulle beleid is inkrimpend genoeg. Vrydagaand se indiensname data het toe ook gewys dat hulle werkskeppingskoers verlangsaam het in April. Daar was ook ander interessante aanwysers die afgelope week.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
What do the indicators show?
I mentioned on Friday that the US Fed left their policy rate unchanged and Jerome Powell indicated that he thinks their policy is restrictive enough. Friday evenings’ employment data showed that their job creation rate slowed in April. There were also other interesting indicators this past week.
This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Die "Fed" aanwyser
Na ʼn week van rugby-verwante episodes is dit tyd om weer oor aanwysers te praat.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
The Fed indicator
After a week of rugby-related episodes, it's time to talk about indicators again.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Globalisering is belangrik vir die ekonomie en vir rugbyspanne
Die NWU ken hierdie week ʼn ere-doktorsgraad in afrigtingswetenskap toe aan die Springbok afrigter Rassie Erasmus. Ek gesels oor lesse wat ons by Rassie en die Springbokke kan leer. Vandag wil ek praat oor globalisering.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Globalisation matters for economies and rugby teams
This week, the NWU awards an honorary doctorate in coaching science to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. I want to talk about lessons we can learn from Rassie and the Springboks. Today the focus is on globalisation.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Meer diverse spanne vaar daardie klein bietjie beter
Die NWU ken hierdie week ʼn ere-doktorsgraad in afrigtingswetenskap toe aan die Springbok afrigter Rassie Erasmus. Die week gesels ek oor lesse wat ons by Rassie en die Springbokke kan leer. Vandag wil ek praat oor diversiteit.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Diverse teams do that little bit better
This week, the NWU awards an honorary doctorate in coaching science to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. This week I talk about lessons we can learn from Rassie and the Springboks. Today I want to focus on diversity.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat dryf innovasie?
Die NWU ken hierdie week ʼn ere-doktorsgraad in afrigtingswetenskap toe aan die Springbok afrigter Rassie Erasmus. Die week gesels ek oor lesse wat ons by Rassie en die Springbokke kan leer. Vandag wil ek praat oor innovasie.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
What drives innovation?
This week, the NWU awards an honorary doctorate in coaching science to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. I want to talk about lessons we can learn from Rassie and the Springboks. Today the focus is on innovation.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat Rassie en die Bokke vir Ekonomie gedoen het
Die NWU ken hierdie week ʼn ere-doktorsgraad in afrigtingswetenskap toe aan die Springbok afrigter Rassie Erasmus. Ek wil graag die week afskop deur te vertel wat het Rassie en die Springbokke vir ekonomie gedoen.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
What Rassie and the Boks did for Economics
This week, the NWU awards an honorary doctorate in coaching science to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. I would like to kick off the week by telling what Rassie and the Springboks have done for economics.
This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Dit is alles rock n roll (ekonomie) vir my...
Na ʼn week van ernstige onderwerpe wil ek graag nog een groot vraag antwoord – wat bepaal die sukses van ʼn “rock band”?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
It is all rock n roll (economics) to me...
After a week of serious topics, I would like to answer one more big question - what determines the success of a "rock band"?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Superkern-inflasie? SARB vat hulle maatstawwe na die volgende vlak
Die Reserwebank het die week die Monetêre beleidsoorsig gepubliseer en dit gee interessante inligting oor die inflasiemaatstawwe wat hulle in ag neem. Wanneer hulle beleid maak moet hulle weet of die inflasie wat hulle waarneem ʼn tydelike skok is, of die gevolg van volgehoue druk op pryse. In die vraagkant- aanbodkant debat moet hulle weet watter deel van die inflasie wat ons sien deur oormaat vraag veroorsaak word.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Supercore inflation? SARB takes its measures to the next level
The Reserve Bank published the Monetary Policy Review this week and it gives interesting information about the inflation measures they take into account. When they make policy they must know whether the inflation is a temporary shock, or whether there is sustained inflationary pressure. In the demand-side-supply-side debate, they need to know what part of the inflation we see is caused by excess demand.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Is dit nonsens om inflasie te beveg? Ek dink nie so nie.
Inflasie en monetêre beleid het die week in die media opgeduik met Roelof Botha wat sê dat rentekoerse nie so hoog hoef te wees soos wat dit is nie en dat die Reserwebank se “nonsens” huishoudings R4000 per maand kos. Ek voel ek moet iets sê.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
Is fighting inflation nonsense? I don't think so
Inflation and monetary policy surfaced in the media this week with Roelof Botha saying that interest rates do not need to be as high as they are and that the Reserve Bank's "nonsense" costs households R4000 per month. I feel like I have to say something.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.
Versigtig vir die hulpbronvloek
Ek het Vrydag iets vertel oor die optimisme rondom die groeivooruitsigte van ʼn aantal Afrika ekonomieë. ʼn Deel daarvan het te doen met die feit dat lande soos Kenia, Ivoorkus en Benin nou weer toegang kry tot internasionale kapitaalmarkte. Die ander deel van die storie is minerale, maar ekonome weet dat goeie natuurlike hulpbronne ʼn seën en vloek kan wees.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Beware the resource curse
On Friday I said a few things about the optimism surrounding the growth prospects of a number of African economies. Part of that has to do with the fact that countries like Kenya, Ivory Coast and Benin are now getting access to international capital markets again. The other part of the story is minerals, but economists know that good natural resources can be a blessing and a curse.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Is dit die moeite werd om werk te soek?
Daar is al baie gesê oor Suid-Afrika se 30% plus werkloosheidskoers. ʼn Stuk navorsing wat nou in die nuus is vra, hoekom moet mense werk soek? Daar is nie genoeg finansiële aansporing om die te doen nie.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
Is it worth looking for a job?
Much has been said about South Africa's 30% plus unemployment rate. A piece of research that is now in the news asks, why should people look for work? There is not enough financial incentive to do that.
This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Groeivooruitsigte vir sub-Sahara Afrika
Die IMF se vooruitskatting is dat die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie hierdie jaar met net 0,9% gaan groei en volgende jaar met 1,2%. In teenstelling daarmee verwag hulle dat sub-Sahara Afrika met 3,8% en 4% gaan groei.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Growth prospects for sub-Saharan Africa
The IMF's forecast is that the South African economy will grow by just 0.9% this year and by 1.2% next year. In contrast, they expect sub-Saharan Africa to grow by 3.8% and 4%.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Inflasie op 5,3% en groeivooruitsigte op 0,9%
Gister is inflasiedata en die IMF se groei vooruitskattings dui daarop dat die ekonomie nog nie by ʼn keerpunt is nie.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Inflation at 5.3% and growth prospects at 0.9%
Yesterday's inflation data and the IMF's growth forecasts indicate that the economy is not yet at a turning point.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Huishoudelike inflasie en die VPI
Die Business Day het gister gerapporteer dat die fondsbestuurgroep Ninety One sê dat huishoulike inflasie hoër is as wat die verbruikersprysindeks aandui. Dit is ʼn interessante stukkie navorsing, maar hulle is aan ʼn gevaarlike kant van die debat.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
Household inflation and CPI
Business Day reported yesterday that the fund management group Ninety One says that household inflation is higher than the consumer price index indicates. It is an interesting piece of research, but they are on a dangerous side of the debate.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.