Die ekonomie minuut
By Waldo Krugell
Die ekonomie minuutMay 16, 2024
Die MBK hou hulle voet op die rem
Verbeel jou die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie is ʼn redelike ou bakkie en die Reserwebank se Monetêre Beleidskomitee is af en toe agter die stuur. Hulle wil graag hê die bakkie moet ry, dit is ekonomiese groei, maar hulle is bekommerd die enjin word te warm, dit is inflasie. Die repokoers is hulle voet op die rem. Hulle het dit gister onveranderd gelos op 8,25%, maar wat sê hulle van die vooruitsigte vir ʼn verlaging later vanjaar?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
The MPC keeps their foot on the brake
Imagine the South African economy is a fairly old bakkie and the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee is occasionally behind the wheel. They want the bakkie to keep running, that's economic growth, but they're worried the engine is overheating, that's inflation. The repo rate is their foot on the brake. They left it unchanged at 8.25% yesterday, but what do they say about the prospects for a reduction later this year?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Die wisselkoers, die verkiesing, en die MBK
Gister in die ry om te stem vra iemand my of die rand al begin val het. Dit is so dat sentiment, veral rondom ʼn verkiesing, ʼn rol kan speel, maar toe dink ek dit is dalk interessant om te praat oor die faktore wat die wisselkoers bepaal. Dit is nou nie hierdie week se veranderinge nie in die rand-dollar koers nie, maar die onderliggende, fundamentele drywers van die wisselkoers.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
The exchange rate, the election, and the MPC
Yesterday in line to vote someone asked me if the rand had started to fall yet. It is the case that sentiment, especially around an election, can play a role, but then I thought it might be interesting to talk about the factors that determine the exchange rate. It is not this week's changes in the rand-dollar rate, but the underlying, fundamental drivers of the exchange rate.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat is die skakel tussen IK en inkomste?
Mens hoor dat mense sê emosionele intelligensie is meer belangrik vir jou sukses as IK. Presies wat mense se inkomste bepaal is iets waarin ekonome belangstel en dit is moeiliker om te bepaal as wat dit klink.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
How strong is the link between IQ and income?
One hears people say that emotional intelligence is more important to your success than IQ. Exactly what determines people's income is something that economists are interested in and it is harder to determine than it sounds.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.
'n Laaste (ekonomiese) woord voor die verkiesing
Daar is al baie gesê oor more se verkiesing. Ons probleme is ekonomies van aard en hoe die verskillende partye belowe om dit op te los lê op ʼn spektrum van ontwikkelingstaat tot die vrye mark. Hierdie stryd is so oud soos ons demokrasie en om dit in perspektief te stel is dit die moeite werd om ʼn ou navorsingsartikel van Nicoli Nattrass te lees. Die titel is Gambling on investment: Competing economic strategies in South Africa. Dit gaan oor die stryd van idees tussen die destydse GEAR beleid en die idees van Nedlac se arbeidskoukus.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
A last (economic) word before the election
Much has been said about tomorrow's election. Our problems are economic in nature and how the various parties promise to solve them lies on a spectrum from the developmental state to the free market. This struggle is as old as our democracy and to put it in perspective it is worth reading an old research article by Nicoli Nattrass. The title is Gambling on investment: Competing economic strategies in South Africa. It is about the battle of ideas between the then GEAR policy and the ideas of Nedlac's labour caucus.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Opmerkings is goed, maar duidelikheid is beter
Wat sentrale banke sê is net so belangrik soos wat hulle doen. Die afgelope week het die rand verswak op grond van opmerkings van ʼn lid van die Amerikaanse Federale Reserwe Raad wat gesê het dat rentekoerse in die VSA dalk nog lank hoog gaan bly. Hier in Suid-Afrika verwag ontleders dat die Monetêre Beleidskomitee die repokoers onveranderd gaan los maar is reg om fyn te luister na die toon van die verklaring. Hoekom sê Sentrale Bankiers nie net wat hulle dink en beplan nie?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
Comments are nice, but clarity is better
What central banks say is as important as what they do. In the past week, the rand has weakened based on comments from a member of the US Federal Reserve Board who said that interest rates in the US may remain high for a long time. Here in South Africa, analysts expect the Monetary Policy Committee to leave the repo rate unchanged but are ready to listen closely to the tone of the statement. Why don't Central Bankers just say what they think and plan?
This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Die verkiesing en ekonomiese beleid
Met minder as ʼn week oor voor die algemene verkiesing lyk dit of ontleders en die markte baie rustig is oor die uitkoms. Die uitslag is min of meer die ANC in koalisie met kleiner partye en redelike stabiliteit, of te wel meer van dieselfde. Dit is goed en sleg.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Ek het hierdie week 'n NWU prys ontvang vir my media-werk en dit is alles te danke aan die getroue luisteraars van Die Ekonomie Minuut. Baie dankie.
The election and economic policy
With less than a week left before the general election, analysts and the markets seem to be very calm about the outcome. The result is more or less the ANC in coalition with smaller parties and reasonable stability or rather, more of the same. This is good and bad.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
I received a NWU prize this week for media engagement and it is all thanks to The Economics Minute and its loyal listeners. Thank you very much.
'n Bietjie goeie nuus oor inflasie
Daar is ʼn stukkie goeie nuus in Aprilmaand se verbruikersprysinflasiesyfer wat gister bekend gemaak is. Die jaar-op-jaarkoers het afgeneem vanaf 5,6% in Februarie en 5,3% in Maart tot 5,2% in April. Dit klink dalk nie na veel nie, maar die druk op voedselpryse is laer.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
A bit of good news about inflation
There is a piece of good news in April's consumer price inflation figure that was announced yesterday. The year-on-year rate decreased from 5.6% in February and 5.3% in March to 5.2% in April. It may not sound like much, but the pressure on food prices is lower.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Arm beteken nie goedkoop nie
Hoekom is die vervaardigingsektor In Afrika lande so klein? Dit dra so 10% van die Bruto Binnelandse Produk by. In Suid-Afrika is dit rondom 12%. Baie vinnig ekonomiese groei en ontwikkeling soos wat Sjina beleef het is onmoontlik sonder vervaardiging.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
Poor does not mean cheap
Why is the manufacturing sector in African countries so small? It contributes about 10% of the Gross Domestic Product. In South Africa it is around 12%. Very rapid economic growth and development such as China has experienced is impossible without manufacturing.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.
Hoe groen is die party waarvoor jy stem?
Die Reserwebank het onlangs gewaarsku dat die Europese koolstofbelasting, of te wel Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism ʼn negatiewe impak kan hê op Suid-Afrika se uitvoer en die ekonomie. Die VSA, Japan, Kanada en die Verenigde Koninkryk oorweeg hulle eie weergawes hiervan. Behlawe om vertoë te rig dat dit onregverdig is, het enige iemand ʼn plan?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
How green is your party of choice?
The Reserve Bank recently warned that the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, could have a negative impact on South Africa's exports and the economy. The US, Japan, Canada and the UK are considering their own versions of this. Besides making representations that this is unfair, does anyone have a plan?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat wys die aanwysers?
As jy vra hoe dit met die ekonomie gaan is dit nie maklik om te sê goed of sleg nie. Uit die buiteland was daar die afgelope week goeie nuus oor Amerikaanse inflasie. Hier in Suid-Afrika lyk dit of dit die eerste kwartaal swaar gegaan het, maar beter in die tweede kwartaal.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
What do the indicators show?
If you ask how the economy is doing it is not easy to say well or badly. There was good news about US inflation this past week. Here in South Africa, it seems that the first quarter was a tough one, but the economy is faring better in the second quarter.
This episode is supported by the Bureau for Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Wat maak jou middelklas?
In die media word daar gereeld gepraat van die middelklas. Die middelklas is onder druk, in die skuld, en moet gaan stem. Maar wie presies is hierdie middelklas?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
What makes you middle class?
In the media, the middle class is often talked about. The middle class is under pressure, in debt and should go and vote. But who exactly is this middle class?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Goue konstante of dilemma?
Ek het vir ʼn oomblik gewonder of ek oor iets anders as die Nasionale Gesondheidsversekering mag praat en besef daar is nie veel te sê oor die ekonomie van siniese politiek nie. Ek kan eerder oor die goudprys praat. ʼn Interessante artikel wat onlangs in die VSA gepubliseer is vra, is daar ʼn goue konstante, of ʼn goue dilemma?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Golden constant, or dilemma?
I wondered for a moment if I may talk about something other than the National Health Insurance and realized there is not much to say about the economics of cynical politics. I can talk about the gold price instead. An interesting article recently published in the US asks, is there a golden constant, or a golden dilemma?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Hoe wil die ANC, DA, EFF, IVP< ActionSA ons werkloosheidsprobleem oplos?
Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister aangekondig dat Suid-Afrika se werkloosheidskoers in die eerste kwartaal gestyg het tot 32,9%. Daar is darem 22 000 nuwe werksgeleenthede geskep, maar die werkloosheidskoers het gestyg omdat baie meer mense wat vroeer gesê het hulle is nie meer ekonomies aktief nie, weer begin werk soek het. Mens wonder soms, kan enige iets die werkloosheidsprobleem oplos? Ek het vir GPT-4 gevra om te kyk wat die verskillende politieke partye in hulle manifeste voorstel.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
How does the ANC, DA, EFF, IFP, ActionSA propose to solve our unemployment problem?
Statistics South Africa announced yesterday that South Africa's unemployment rate rose to 32.9% in the first quarter. At least 22,000 new jobs were created, but the unemployment rate rose because many more people who previously said they were no longer economically active started looking for work again. One sometimes wonders, can anything solve the unemployment problem? I asked GPT-4 to look at what the various political parties propose in their manifestos.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.
Wat die 2-pot beteken vir aandele en verbruiksbesteding
Daar is al heelwat geskryf oor die nuwe twee-potstelsel vir pensioene. Ek dink dit gaan goeie uitkomste hê, maar daar is ʼn paar goed om te noem.
Hierdie ep sode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
What the 2-pot means for shares and consumer spending
Much has been written about the new two-pot system for pensions. I think it will have good outcomes, but there are a few things to mention.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Sentrale banke en rentekoerse
Ons markte en wisselkoers is op die oomblik baie sensitief vir enige nuus uit die VSA wat ʼn aanduiding kan gee van wanneer hulle rentekoerse gaan sny, maar daar is mos nie ʼn wet wat sê dat die Fed eerste moet beweeg nie.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
Central banks and interest rates
Our markets and exchange rate are very sensitive at the moment to any news from the US that may give an indication of when they will cut interest rates, but there is no law that says that the Fed must move first.
This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Amazon is hier
Baie van ons is bekend met die aanlyn kleinhandel en stroomdienste reus Amazon. Hulle het hierdie week tot die Suid-Afrikaanse mark toegetree met amazon.co.za en daar is gemengde reaksie.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Amazon is here
Many of us are familiar with the online retail and streaming services giant Amazon. They entered the South African market this week with amazon.co.za and there is a mixed reaction.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Hoe om ongelykheid te verminder
Latyns-Amerika is ʼn streek waar ongelykheid in die verdeling van inkomste en welvaart net so erg is as hier in Suid-Afrika. Sedert die jaar 2000 het dit egter begin afneem, maar hoe het hulle dit reg gekry?
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
How to reduce inequality
Latin America is a region where inequality in the distribution of income and wealth is just as bad as here in South Africa. However, since the year 2000 it started to decline, but how did they get it right?
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Huislenings en inflasiemikpunte
Gereelde luisteraars sal weet dat ek dink die Reserwebank se inflasieteiken is redelik belangrik. Die Sunday Times het die afgelope naweek gevra of die teikenband nie dalk verhoog moet word ter wille van huiseienaars nie en die kort antwoord is nee, maar ek wil dit graag langer verduidelik.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.
Home loans and inflation targets
Regular listeners will know that I think the Reserve Bank's inflation target is quite important. The Sunday Times asked this past weekend whether the target band should perhaps be increased for the sake of homeowners and the short answer is no, but I would like to explain it in more detail.
This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.
Die impak van beurtkrag op arbeidsmarkuitkomste
Gister was die 40ste dag in ʼn ry sonder beurtkrag. Daar is ʼn warm debat aan oor hoe Eskom dit regkry, maar ek het nie ʼn klinkklare antwoord nie en dink ook nie beurtkrag is iets van die verlede nie. Ek wil eerder gesels oor nuwe navorsing wat ondersoek instel na die impak van beurtkrag op die arbeidsmark.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
The impact of load shedding on labour market outcomes
Yesterday was the 40th day in a row without load shedding. There is a hot debate about how Eskom is doing this, but I don't have a clear answer and I don't think load shedding is a thing of the past either. Rather, I want to talk about new research that investigates the impact of load shedding on the labour market.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat wys die aanwysers?
Ek het Vrydag genoem dat die Amerikaanse Fed hulle beleidskoers onveranderd gelaat het en Jerome Powell het aangedui dat hy dink hulle beleid is inkrimpend genoeg. Vrydagaand se indiensname data het toe ook gewys dat hulle werkskeppingskoers verlangsaam het in April. Daar was ook ander interessante aanwysers die afgelope week.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
What do the indicators show?
I mentioned on Friday that the US Fed left their policy rate unchanged and Jerome Powell indicated that he thinks their policy is restrictive enough. Friday evenings’ employment data showed that their job creation rate slowed in April. There were also other interesting indicators this past week.
This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.
Die "Fed" aanwyser
Na ʼn week van rugby-verwante episodes is dit tyd om weer oor aanwysers te praat.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
The Fed indicator
After a week of rugby-related episodes, it's time to talk about indicators again.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Globalisering is belangrik vir die ekonomie en vir rugbyspanne
Die NWU ken hierdie week ʼn ere-doktorsgraad in afrigtingswetenskap toe aan die Springbok afrigter Rassie Erasmus. Ek gesels oor lesse wat ons by Rassie en die Springbokke kan leer. Vandag wil ek praat oor globalisering.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Globalisation matters for economies and rugby teams
This week, the NWU awards an honorary doctorate in coaching science to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. I want to talk about lessons we can learn from Rassie and the Springboks. Today the focus is on globalisation.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Meer diverse spanne vaar daardie klein bietjie beter
Die NWU ken hierdie week ʼn ere-doktorsgraad in afrigtingswetenskap toe aan die Springbok afrigter Rassie Erasmus. Die week gesels ek oor lesse wat ons by Rassie en die Springbokke kan leer. Vandag wil ek praat oor diversiteit.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
Diverse teams do that little bit better
This week, the NWU awards an honorary doctorate in coaching science to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. This week I talk about lessons we can learn from Rassie and the Springboks. Today I want to focus on diversity.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat dryf innovasie?
Die NWU ken hierdie week ʼn ere-doktorsgraad in afrigtingswetenskap toe aan die Springbok afrigter Rassie Erasmus. Die week gesels ek oor lesse wat ons by Rassie en die Springbokke kan leer. Vandag wil ek praat oor innovasie.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.
What drives innovation?
This week, the NWU awards an honorary doctorate in coaching science to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. I want to talk about lessons we can learn from Rassie and the Springboks. Today the focus is on innovation.
This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.
Wat Rassie en die Bokke vir Ekonomie gedoen het
Die NWU ken hierdie week ʼn ere-doktorsgraad in afrigtingswetenskap toe aan die Springbok afrigter Rassie Erasmus. Ek wil graag die week afskop deur te vertel wat het Rassie en die Springbokke vir ekonomie gedoen.
Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.
What Rassie and the Boks did for Economics
This week, the NWU awards an honorary doctorate in coaching science to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. I would like to kick off the week by telling what Rassie and the Springboks have done for economics.
This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.